Valentine Leading Candidate To Manage Marlins?
Bobby Valentine is the "leading candidate" to manage the Marlins, a "person familiar with the process" told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post last night. However, Capozzi learned that Valentine has not had a formal interview with the Marlins. SI's Jon Heyman wrote today that "the current belief among baseball people seems to be" that Valentine is the favorite to manage the Mariners.
Capozzi believes that the Marlins' short list of manager candidates includes Valentine, Edwin Rodriguez, Tony Pena, Tim Wallach, Jim Fregosi, and Bo Porter. He notes that Marlins executives have been divided since June on the decision of whether to hire Valentine.
Free Agent Market For Second Basemen
The free agent market for second basemen is short on big names and only offers a few players who would be considered solid regulars. The Twins, Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Padres could be in the market for second base help.
Solid Regulars
Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Juan Uribe are credible options to start at second base. Ellis, the only Type A free agent second baseman, has a $6MM club option. The Athletics will entertain the idea of bringing him back somehow. Uribe provides more power and versatility than Hudson. Hudson is a better choice for OBP. We're assuming Omar Infante's $2.5MM club option is picked up.
Fighting For Playing Time
Melvin Mora, David Eckstein, Cristian Guzman, Jerry Hairston Jr., Bill Hall, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, and Nick Punto will have to fight for regular playing time at second base. Hall had a Uribe-like season, slugging .456 with 18 home runs and playing all over the place. Mora had a nice year, posting a .358 OBP for the Rockies in 354 plate appearances. He hasn't played a ton of second base in his career, though.
Utility Players
Most of the remaining free agents will be pushed into utility roles if they haven't already been: Willie Bloomquist, Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Akinori Iwamura, Julio Lugo, and others. Several will have to settle for minor league deals.
Potential Non-Tenders
Last year Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Braves. He signed as a free agent with the Diamondbacks and hit .284/.370/.496 with 26 home runs. This year, Jose Lopez, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes, Willy Aybar, and Jeff Baker are potential second base non-tenders. Lopez, Theriot and Barmes are likely to be cut, though the Giants may retain Fontenot. Barmes hit 23 home runs back in '09, while Lopez hit 25. Aybar and Baker are more in the utility mold.
Summary
There won't be much money spent on free agent second basemen this year. The 2012 class may be more interesting if Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Kelly Johnson, and Freddy Sanchez reach the open market.
Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Manny Parra, Joe Inglett, Kameron Loe
- Second time: Carlos Gomez, Carlos Villanueva
- Third time: Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Todd Coffey
Fielder will clearly be tendered a contract, though he's a strong trade candidate. With so many star first basemen locked up in multiyear deals, there are few clear comparables for Fielder in his last arbitration year. Mark Teixeira, another Scott Boras client, received a $3.5MM raise in January of '08. That'd put Fielder at $14MM, though the Brewers' first baseman has significantly fewer runs and RBIs than Tex did and lacks Gold Glove hardware as well. Boras isn't obligated to talk about Fielder's raise, though. He can just focus on what he feels Fielder is worth now, even comparing him to free agents.
Weeks is also a lock to be tendered, given his breakout healthy season in 2010. It's difficult to find a comparable for Weeks, as most top offensive second basemen are locked up. His credentials will net a raise of at least a few million bucks, and the Brewers will probably open extension talks.
Loe is another player who will be unquestionably tendered a contract. He had success out of the Brewers' bullpen this year, but doesn't have the career numbers to merit a big first-time payday.
Pitchers Parra, Villanueva, and Coffey all posted disappointing ERAs but strong strikeout rates in 2010. I think Parra and Villanueva will be tendered contracts, though they could be trade bait. Brewers GM Doug Melvin, speaking to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, commented recently that "you don't want to give away a guy like Parra," as opposed to the team's "short leashes" on Jorge de la Rosa and Grant Balfour. Coffey earned $2.025MM this year, so there is a greater chance the Brewers non-tender him.
Gomez continued to struggle offensively, but his career numbers will limit his raise. He's likely to be part of the team's center field mix next year. Inglett, a 32-year-old journeyman, did solid work this year but could be cut in December for flexibility.
Trade Market For First Basemen
On Tuesday we analyzed the free agent market for first basemen, noting plenty of openings and a large group of players who will be fighting for regular playing time. Let's see what the trade market adds to the equation.
The Big Names
The Winter Meetings are coming up in a couple of months, and trade talk could be dominated by Prince Fielder rumors. 77.8% of MLBTR readers expect the big man to be traded this offseason, according to a recent site poll. Fielder, 27 in May, had an off-year in terms of his 32 home runs and .471 SLG yet led MLB with 114 walks and posted a stellar .401 OBP. Fielder, a Scott Boras client, reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Brewers in the five-year, $100MM range. He's arbitration eligible this winter and could earn around $15MM in 2011 before hitting free agency. The White Sox and Rangers were reported July suitors for Fielder; the Brewers figure to seek pitching.
A year ago Adrian Gonzalez was considered a strong trade candidate. I think the Padres' surprising run this year takes him off the market this winter, but it'd be silly not to listen. At $6.2MM for 2011, Gonzalez would be a superior trade target to Fielder.
Carlos Lee is more of a big contract than a big name – he's owed $37MM over the next two seasons. Lee spent most of his time in left field but picked up 20 games at first base toward the end of the season. He slumped to .246/.291/.417 this year and could only be dealt for a similarly bad contract.
Non-Tender Candidates
James Loney, Casey Kotchman, and Dan Johnson are our speculative first base non-tender candidates. Loney has enough promise that a trade is much more likely than a non-tender. Kotchman, on the other hand, is certain to be cut loose. As for the Rays' Johnson? He would not be expensive to retain through arbitration, having picked up only 140 big league plate appearances this year. He is 31 years old, though, and the Rays could non-tender him in December for the flexibility. Johnson's appeal lies in his destruction of Triple-A pitching this year, though there's no particular reason for the Rays to move him.
Projects/Platoon Bats
Four other first basemen who could draw trade interest: Travis Ishikawa, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, and Jeff Clement. Ishikawa's future with the Giants may depend on whether they re-sign Aubrey Huff or another free agent. The 27-year-old Ishikawa has a career line of .265/.327/.400 in 665 plate appearances, with problems against southpaws in a scant 67 PAs. Davis had a shot to take over as the Rangers' regular first baseman this year, but his minor league success has not carried over. He too has struggled against lefties and must await his team's offseason decisions. Clouding the picture for Davis is Mitch Moreland's success this year.
The Pirates may have given up on regular playing time for Jones and Clement. Jones had a full 654 plate appearances to prove himself, and he did hit 21 home runs, but his .247/.306/.414 line was subpar. Like Ishikawa and Davis, lefties give him trouble.
Reds prospect Yonder Alonso would not be labeled a project at this point, but we'll put him in this group. 24 in April, Alonso was drafted 7th overall in 2008. He hit .296/.355/.470 in 445 Triple-A plate appearances this year, and is blocked by Joey Votto. Alonso has increased his versatility by playing 30 minor league games in left field, but he still may be dealt to fill a need.
Summary
We mentioned in the free agent post that the Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants could be seeking first base help this winter. The trade market adds two serious names in Fielder and perhaps Loney, plus a host of players who would be cheap to acquire and will have to earn their playing time.
Non-Tender Candidate: James Loney
Dodgers first baseman James Loney does not intuitively strike me as a non-tender candidate – the team was reportedly unwilling to part with him in July in a Cliff Lee trade. However, Loney had a terrible final two months and finished with the worst numbers of his career. Let's examine his case.
Loney, 27 in May, agreed on a $3.1MM deal with the Dodgers for 2010. He was arbitration eligible for the first time after posting another 13 home run, 90 RBI season. This year Loney still managed ten home runs and 88 RBIs, but his batting average and walk rate slipped from '09. He finished at .267/.329/.395, disappointing rates for a first baseman.
Loney's basic career numbers: a .288 average, 55 home runs, 353 RBIs, 267 runs, and 25 steals in 2436 plate appearances across 624 games. Potential comparables Corey Hart, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham averaged a raise of about $1.8MM, which would put Loney at $4.9MM for 2011. These comparables aren't perfect; Loney bests them all in average and RBIs but falls short in home runs. Hart, coming off a lousy platform year himself after the '09 season, had to beat the Brewers to get his $1.55MM raise. The Brewers were rewarded for tendering Hart a contract, as he had a big 2010 season.
Chances are some team would be willing to give Loney a shot at $4.5-5MM next year even if the Dodgers prefer a change at first base. Loney's team will have the ability to retain him for 2012 if they're happy with his '11 results. MLB.com's Bill Ladson speculated on Friday that the Nationals would go after Loney hard if the Dodgers make him available.
We'll still pose the question in a poll: will the Dodgers non-tender Loney? Click here to vote and here to see the results.
Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros
The Astros are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Gustavo Chacin, Nelson Figueroa, Felipe Paulino
- Second time: Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Keppinger
- Third time: Wandy Rodriguez, Tim Byrdak, Humberto Quintero
Pence, Rodriguez, and Bourn are the biggest names from the Astros' sizeable arbitration class. Pence has a good case for a $3MM raise, which would put him at $6.5MM for 2011. The Astros will continue to enjoy the savings from beating Rodriguez in arbitration last year, but they'll still owe him $7MM or more next year. We learned in August that Wandy seeks an extension, and we suggested at the time that three years and $24MM could work. Bourn could get a couple million more on the strength of his run and steal totals; he figures to stay.
Lindstrom had a rough finish, losing the closing job to Brandon Lyon as he dealt with a back injury. His raise could be limited to about $1MM. Paulino remains interesting enough to tender a contract, and Keppinger should also be retained.
Figueroa, 37 in May, has not yet gone through the arbitration process. Perhaps his 67 Astros innings this year were strong enough to merit a tender, or maybe the plan is to non-tender and then re-sign him. At any rate, interest is mutual between Figueroa and GM Ed Wade. Byrdak is a tough call. He battled hamstring and back injuries this year and already makes $1.6MM, but did handle lefties well.
Chacin tossed 38.3 innings for the Astros, his first big league work since '07. He'll probably be non-tendered. The non-tender decision on Quintero will depend on the Astros' perception of his defense and intangibles, since he's not much with the bat. He made only $750K this year and would receive a small raise.
Odds & Ends: Rothschild, Listach, Wallach, Alderson
Some links to check out as the Reds try to extend their season…
- Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune reminds us that Cubs' pitching coach Larry Rothschild has until tomorrow to pick up his option for 2011. Rothschild has worked closely with Carlos Zambrano over the last several years, watching over him like a "substitute teacher," to use Sullivan's words.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that Nationals third base coach Pat Listach is no longer a candidate to manage the Cubs.
- Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports that Tim Wallach will serve as either the Dodgers bench or third base coach next season unless another team hires him to be their manager.
- Sandy Alderson asked and received permission from Bud Selig to interview with the Mets for the GM vacancy next Thursday or Friday, and The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that's an indication that Alderson wants the job badly.
- Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer ranks everyone on the Indians 40-man roster based on what they did in 2010 and what they're expected to contribute in 2011.
- In a mailbag piece, Hoynes says that insurance would cover some of the $28.75MM left on Travis Hafner's contract if he lands on the disabled list with a right shoulder issue. Pronk has been battling injuries to the shoulder since 2008.
- John Tomase of The Boston Herald looks at all of the non-closer relievers who signed a multi-year deal worth at least $5MM over the last four seasons. In summary, it's not pretty. Not at all.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Braves
Let's continue our look at each team's amateur spending with the Atlanta Braves. Here are the five largest signing bonuses they've paid out…
- Mike Minor, $2.42MM (2009)
- Jeff Francoeur, $2.2MM (2002)
- Matt Belisle, $1.75MM (1998)
- Jason Heyward, $1.7MM (2007)
- Edward Salcedo, $1.6MM (2010)
The seventh overall pick in 2009, Minor shot through the minors this season and made eight starts (and one relief appearance) for the Braves. His 5.98 ERA in 40.2 innings was ugly but the peripherals were excellent: 9.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He figures to get a much longer look next season.
Francoeur, the 23rd overall pick in 2002, burst onto the scene with a .300/.336/.549 effort in his 2005 rookie campaign, but struggled thereafter. He hit just .266/.308/.424 with the Braves before being traded to the Mets for Ryan Church a few weeks before the 2009 trade deadline. Belisle was the 52nd overall pick in 1998, but he never appeared in a game for Atlanta. He pitched well in the minor leagues before missing the entire 2001 season due to injury, and the Braves eventually shipped him to the Reds as a player to be named later in a 2003 deal for Kent Mercker.
Heyward somehow lasted until the 14th overall pick of the 2007, and he just wrapped up a tremendously successful rookie campaign: .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances. He should receive plenty of Rookie of the Year votes, if not in the award outright. Salcedo turned pro just this summer, and hit .225/.307/.333 in 304 A-ball plate appearances. He is arguably the team's best position player prospect due to his talent level and physical gifts.
Kenshin Kawakami was a long-time veteran of the Japanese leagues, but if we relax our criteria a bit to include players with zero MLB experience, his $2MM signing bonus would slot in at number three.
MLBTR Originals: 10/3/2010 – 10/10/2010
There wasn't much in the way of rumors or transactions this week, but that's understandable. Everyone is focused on the postseason, including players, team executives, and agents. Here's a look at the original content we provided over the last seven days…
- Now that the regular season is over, Eddie Bajek was able to finalize his reverse-engineered Elias rankings. Here's a list of all the Type-A and Type-B free agents, and also the 2011 draft order.
- Tim Dierkes looked at Mike Napoli's arbitration case, and he listed some free agent groundballers and innings eaters. Scott Boras is well-positioned for the offseason.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith dug up some third base options for the Indians, and we also looked at the free agent market for first basemen and the trade market for catchers.
- The Arbitration Eligibles series continued with the Reds, the Cubs, the Nationals, the Phillies, and the Mets.
- Ben looked back at what was being said when active GM's were hired, covering the AL East, AL Central, and AL West.
- We examined the stock of several pending free agents, including A.J. Pierzynski of the White Sox, Gerald Laird of the Tigers, Ramon Hernandez of the Reds, Cliff Lee of the Rangers, and Aaron Harang of the Reds. We also looked at Brian Bannister's case for being non-tendered, and discussed Ryan Ludwick's future.
- This week's polls featured questions about which player will improve his free agent stock the most during the postseason, which team will win the World Series, and also whether or not the Blue Jays will re-sign John Buck.
- I kicked off a series looking at the largest bonuses each team has given to amateur players, starting with the Diamondbacks. I also rounded up the best links in this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- Howard Megdal's latest Jack Of All Trades pieces featured old-timer Bobby Bonds and the active Jose Guillen.
- Ben's chat transcript can be found here.
- Make sure you visit MLBTR's forums.
Week In Review: 10/3/10 – 10/9/10
It's Sunday, which means it's time for a look back on the week that was here on MLBTR:
- The offseason is beginning to take shape, as we heard that Cliff Lee may seek a C.C. Sabathia-type contract, but the Tigers won't be one of the teams pursuing him (or any other top starters for that matter).
- Meanwhile, Angels owner Arte Moreno is prepared to spend big and targeting Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. The Cubs are looking to spend too, except they're targeting the draft and scouting.
- The Orioles will look to add power to their lineup, while Lance Berkman will seek out an everyday role somewhere as opposed to a platoon position.
- It's unlikely to think about David Wright being traded, but Mets COO Jeff Wilpon's comments that they'd have to be open to anything has at least spurred speculation. For what it's worth, Wright wants to stay.
- We saw lots of managerial decisions this week, as the Brewers declined their option on Ken Macha, the Reds signed Dusty Baker to a two-year extension, the Mets relieved Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel of their duties, and the Diamondbacks retained both manager Kirk Gibson, who received a two-year extension as well, and former GM Jerry Dipoto (now the senior vice president of scouting and player development).
- Meanwhile, the Astros exercised Brad Mills' 2012 option and added another for 2013, but weren't done there. They made a decision on two player options, exercising Jason Michaels' $900K option while paying a $150K buyout on Geoff Blum's $1.65MM option.
- The Rockies aren't sure on what do with their half of Miguel Olivo's option for 2011, as Victor Martinez is also on their radar, but they're likely discussing a deal to keep Jorge de la Rosa in Colorado.
- A more noteworthy option we learned about was Bronson Arroyo's $11MM option for 2011, which will "definitely" be picked up, according to GM Walt Jocketty. The Reds have a $2MM buyout on the option, so Arroyo is essentially returning on a one-year, $9MM deal. Jocketty will try to extend the veteran workhorse this offseason.
- Perhaps the biggest piece of option news this week relates to Albert Pujols though, whose $16MM option for 2011 was exercised by the Cardinals (not that there was ever any doubt). The Cardinals will be trying everything they can to get Pujols locked up beyond 2011, I'm sure. Side note on Pujols in case you weren't aware, both he and Rafael Furcal now have ten-and-five rights.
- The Padres announced that they'll decline Chris Young's option for 2011 and GM Jed Hoyer will meet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent in the coming weeks. Later in the week we heard the Padres signing Gonzo long-term isn't "practical."
- Cards GM John Mozeliak may have insisted that Colby Rasmus won't be traded, but that won't stop other teams from preparing to make a push for the 24-year-old. After his minor fallout with the Cardinals this season, you can bet all 29 teams have at least thought about making an offer.
- Four Orioles minor leaguers elected free agency, while the Padres claimed Jarrett Hoffpauir from the Blue Jays, and the Rangers claimed Ryan Tucker from the Marlins, designating Rich Harden for assignment in order to do so.
- The Red Sox removed Robert Manuel, Dusty Brown, and Kevin Cash from their 40-man roster; all three will be eligible for free agency following the World Series.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka may have his ups and downs, but he's very much part of Boston's plans in 2011. They won't look to trade him.
- Another Japanese pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma, was posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles this week. The 29-year-old posted strong numbers in Japan this past season.
- Lastly, best wishes to Mike Redmond in his post-playing career in baseball. The veteran backstop retired this week, but is expected to find a managerial or coaching job elsewhere in the game. Redmond played 764 games over 13 seasons; not bad for a guy who wasn't drafted. Congratulations, Mike!