Manager & Coaching Rumors: Heyman’s Picks, Nats, Mets
Not a lot of player news happening right now in the midst of the playoffs, but there's plenty of speculation going on about the guys who call the shots. We already heard about Ron Gardenhire's inevitable extension today, but let's take a look at some more links from the baseball universe:
- In these two tweets, Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman makes his picks for some open managerial positions: Eric Wedge in Pittsburgh, Bob Melvin in Milwaukee, Bobby Valentine in Seattle, Mike Quade in Chicago, and Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta.
- We heard earlier this year that Jim Riggleman will manage the Nationals again next season. MLB.com's Bill Ladson tells us that the Nats' entire coaching staff will be returning for the 2011 season as well. The Nationals recorded 10 more wins in 2010 than in 2009 under the current regime.
- Adam Rubin from ESPN New York gives us some insight into the Mets' managerial situation; potential general manager Sandy Alderson has believed it's misusing your resources to hire an expensive manager, while Mets owner Fred Wilpon would prefer a manager with previous ties to the Mets.
Gardenhire Will Manage Twins Beyond 2011
2:16pm: Backing up what we've already heard, Kelsie Smith from the Saint Paul Pioneer Press spoke with Twins' GM Bill Smith, who says Gardenhire's postseason track record won't affect his job security at all (Twitter link). Gardenhire is just 6-21 in his postseason career.
1:49pm: The Twins saw their postseason hopes swept away by the Yankees yet again last night, but it appears Twins CEO Jim Pohlad hasn't lost faith in manager Ron Gardenhire as a result. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen write that Ron Gardenhire will receive an extension beyond his current contract, which runs through 2011.
''That's just such a nonissue,'' Pohlad said. ''We all know that's a no-brainer. We are going to get something done.''
Since becoming the Twins' manager, Gardenhire has racked up an impressive regular season record of 803-656, placing him 71st on the all-time wins list for managers. He's led the Twins to six AL Central Division titles and has seen his team notch 90 or more wins five times.
Gardenhire's Twins have only managed one postseason series win, however, back in 2002 against the Oakland A's. They wound up losing to the Angels in the ALCS that season, with the Angels going on to win the World Series. Following their 2010 sweep, the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, dating back to 2004.
Pohlad says Gardenhire has yet to bring up the issue and ask for a new contract, and according to the article, he's content to wait for the Twins to approach him about his extension:
''I have a contract next year… I'm happy about that part.''
For all of the praise he's received, Gardenhire has yet to win the American League Manager of the Year award, but he's considered to be a leading candidate for the honor in 2010.
Thome Leaning Towards Playing In 2011
2:06pm: Joe Christensen and La Velle E. Neal III from the Minneapolis Star Tribune also spoke to Thome about a potential return in 2011. Christensen and Neal remind us that Thome has repeatedly stated how much he enjoyed Minnesota, and provide this quote from the man with 589 home runs to his name:
"I love the game. I'd love to come back, I really would, and Minnesota was a great place, so we'll see how the winter goes. It would be great."
My own speculation, but Thome's potential return to Minnesota might depend on the Twins' decision on Jason Kubel's $5.25MM club option for 2011. Kubel, expected to be the regular DH in 2010, was forced into right field when Michael Cuddyer switched to first base following Justin Morneau's season-ending concussion. That lineup juggle opened the door for Thome's strong 2010. After posting such impressive numbers, he may be able to find more playing time with a different contender if Kubel returns.
Kubel's .249/.323/.427 line doesn't look nearly as impressive as Thome's, but he gives the Twins the options of playing him in the outfield (though his career -18.9 UZR/150 in the outfield doesn't inspire confidence). He did hit .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs in 2009, so he's capable of being a highly productive DH. The Twins hold a $350K buyout on Kubel's option.
9:14am: The Twins' season came to an abrupt and disappointing end last night, but it sounds like Jim Thome won't allow his career to suffer the same fate. Thome kept it short and sweet with Kelsie Smith and Brian Murphy of The St. Paul Pioneer Press after the game, saying "Yeah, I think I'm coming back [for 2011]." Last month he admitted that retirement would have been tempting if the Twins won it all.
The 40-year-old Thome became a folk hero in Minnesota this season, something that tends to happen when you hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 homers in 340 plate appearances. He absolutely annihilated righthanded pitching, hitting .302/.445/.698 with 19 homers off pitchers of the opposite hand. At .241/.298/.471, he wasn't all that terrible against lefties either. With 589 career homers to his credit, Thome should become the eighth member of the 600 home run club next summer.
Thome signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM last offseason (he did earn another $200K in bonuses tied to plate appearances), the bargain signing of the year. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk looked at Thome's free agent stock two weeks ago, and you have to figure it's pretty high right now.
MLBTR's Steve Adams also contributed to this post.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Diamondbacks
Every year all 30 clubs will spend millions of dollars to procure amateur talent, but that still pales in comparison to the amount they spend on their big league roster. As young players have become more prominent in baseball and teams shifted their focus to the draft and international market, the amount of money spent on amateur players has skyrocketed.
In this series we'll look at the largest bonuses each club has given to amateur players, and see what kind of return they got on the investment. Let's start off with the Diamondbacks…
- Travis Lee, $10MM (1996)
- Justin Upton, $6.1MM (2005)
- John Patterson, $6MM (1996)
- Stephen Drew, $4MM (2004)
- Max Scherzer, $3MM (2006)
Lee and Patterson have interesting back stories. Both advised by Scott Boras at the time of the 1996 draft, they were declared free agents (along with Matt White and Bobby Seay) when Boras found a loophole in the signing process. The Twins selected Lee with the second overall pick, but they failed to tender him a contract within 15 days of the draft as required. Patterson, taken sixth overall by the Expos, did receive a contract offer within the 15 day window but it was not on official team letterhead.
The Diamondbacks were still two years away from their inaugural season and in the process of building their organization, so they dipped deep into their wallets to sign two premium talents. Lee went on to hit .252/.336/.401 in 338 games for Arizona before being traded to Philadelphia in July 2000 as part of the Curt Schilling deal. Patterson didn't debut in the big leagues until 2002, and he threw just 85.2 innings (5.04 ERA) for the D-Backs. They dealt him to the Expos in 2004 for Randy Choate. Both Lee and Patterson have been out of baseball for several years now.
Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 draft and signed what was then the largest minor league contract in draft history. Still just 23, he's on the cusp of stardom (.272/.352/.471 career) although a shoulder injury sabotaged his 2010 season. Drew signed the largest contract of the 2004 draft as the 15th overall pick after a year long holdout (this was before the signing deadline was implemented), and through four-plus seasons as a big leaguer he's hit .272/.332/.448. Scherzer was the 11th overall pick in a 2006 class loaded with college pitching, and he went on to post a 3.86 ERA in 226.1 innings for Arizona before being included in last winter's Curtis Granderson–Edwin Jackson–Ian Kennedy blockbuster.
Cafardo’s Latest: Matsuzaka, Managers, Konerko
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spoke to nearly a dozen scouts and executives and found that there would be substantial interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka if the Red Sox made the righthander available in a trade this offseason. Most of those polled believe Boston would have to kick in some money to offset the two-years and $20MM left on his deal, but it's unclear what they would want in return. As Cafardo reminds us, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, so the Sox could simply hold onto him.
As far as teams that could have potential interest in Dice-K, Cafardo names the Mariners, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers. Here are the rest of his rumors…
- There's talk that the Red Sox might go after Yu Darvish if he's posted this winter, and there is a little bit of a New England connection there: Darvish's father attended school in the area.
- Doug Melvin said he will go outside the organization to replace departed manager Ken Macha, which rules out Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph.
- Jim Hendry and Cubs ownership likes what interim manager Mike Quade got out of his players down the stretch, so the sentiment to retain him is growing.
- Fredi Gonzalez turned down a chance to interview with the Cubbies, and it's looking more and more likely that he will take over for the retiring Bobby Cox in Atlanta.
- Alex Anthopoulos is looking at third base/bench coaches for his next manager, while Neal Huntington might dip into his Indians' roots to fill the Pirates' managerial vacancy.
- Paul Konerko indicated that contract length won't be much of a factor when he hits free agency this winter because he isn't sure how much longer he wants to play. Kenny Williams indicated that there might not be enough room in the budget for the White Sox to bring back their captain, especially if they seeks out a lefty bat as expected.
- Jason Varitek wants to return to the Red Sox but the team is thinking bigger picture with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on board. Cafardo suggests the Marlins as a potential landing spot for Varitek, where he would work with the team's young pitchers.
- Meanwhile, the Sox could sign John Buck as a stopgap while they wait for Salty to establish himself.
- Teams in need of a second baseman are very interested in Jed Lowrie, though at least one scout thinks he can stick at shortstop. The 26-year-old hit .287/.381/.526 in 197 plate appearances this year.
- Despite a strong finish (1.41 ERA in his last ten starts), the Cubs would still like to move Carlos Zambrano. Of course, they're going to have to eat some of the $55MM left of his contract to do so.
- Cafardo thinks that Carl Pavano could command a three-year deal worth $30MM as a free agent this winter, but he'd have to give a bit of a discount to return to Minnesota. The Twins have shown a willingness to spend in the last year, so this will be an interesting negotiation for them.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Gerald Laird
Steve Adams already looked at the stock of one impending free agent in A.J. Pierzynski earlier today, now let's turn our attention to another AL Central catcher. The Tigers informed Gerald Laird that they will not attempt to re-sign him after the season just a week ago, so the soon-to-be 31-year-old backstop will hit the open market for the first time in his career.
Let's see what his stock looks like heading into the winter…
The Good
- Laird is arguably the best in baseball when it comes to shutting down the opponent's running game. His 34% caught stealing rate was second base among AL catchers this year with at least 650 innings caught this season, and over the last five years he's thrown out a studly 37.6% of base runners.
- He's extremely durable for a catcher, hitting the disabled list just once since 2004. Like all other catchers though, he'll occasionally miss a day or two with bumps and bruises. It comes with the territory.
- As a Type-B free agent, a team will not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Laird. It's unlikely that the Tigers would offer him arbitration anyway.
The Bad
- Laird isn't much of a hitter these days, bottoming out at just .207/.263/.304 in 299 plate appearances this year. Over the last three seasons he's put together a .238/.303/.342 batting line.
- Laird's a Scott Boras client, so negotiations don't figure to be easy.
The Verdict
The offensive bar for catchers is pretty low right now, with backstops around the league hitting just .249/.319/.381 in 2010. Given the lack of offense found at the position, teams are focusing more on defense behind the plate, so Laird's cannon arm has definite value.
Jose Molina, a similar no-hit/all-throw catcher, was only able to find a one-year deal worth $400K guaranteed (plus incentives and an club option) last offseason, and even then he had to wait until mid-February. Laird is likely facing a similar situation; a one-year, low base salary contract with some performance bonuses to be a backup somewhere. Catchers are always getting hurt, so even if he settles for a minor league deal he'll probably get an opportunity at some point next summer.
Odds & Ends: Blake, Kemp, Hendrickson, Matias, Hill
If there were any doubts about how much trade deadline acquisitions can affect the postseason, last night's Giants/Braves contest silenced them. A pair of former Royals, Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth, helped lead Atlanta to victory, while ex-Red Sox Ramon Ramirez gave up Ankiel's game-winning blast. As we prepare for another round of playoff baseball tonight, let's check out a few links….
- Casey Blake hit just .248/.320/.407 this season, but MLB.com's Sarah Morris thinks Ned Colletti has more pressing needs than finding a new third baseman.
- Meanwhile, Steve Dilbeck of The Los Angeles Times says that today's Matt Kemp-Nationals rumor won't be the last time the centerfielder's name comes up on the rumor circuit this winter.
- The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec expects the Orioles to buy out Mark Hendrickson's $1.2MM option for $200K. Hendrickson could return to the team at a lower price, according to Zrebiec.
- Carlos Matias (now known as Carlos Martinez) has received Visa approval and completed his $1.5MM deal with the Cardinals, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes (Twitter link). The Dominican right-hander agreed to terms with St. Louis in June, and has been outstanding in the Dominican Summer League (0.76 ERA, 11.9 K/9).
- The Red Sox have outrighted Rich Hill to the minors, reports Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The lefty will become a free agent five days after the World Series.
- In his latest appearance on WEEI, Peter Gammons discussed Cliff Lee, Boston's bullpen, and how the purchase of Liverpool FC affects the Red Sox.
- As David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Billy Wagner's strained oblique will keep him out of the NLDS and, if the Braves advance, the NLCS. With the left-hander still planning to retire, Wagner may have made his final big league appearance last night.
Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Bannister
One of Dayton Moore's very first moves as general manager of the Royals was to swap hard-throwing but enigmatic reliever Ambiorix Burgos to the Mets for then 25-year-old righthander Brian Bannister. Bannister had just 38 big league innings to his credit at the time (4.26 ERA) but he was consistently excellent in minors (3.31 career minor league ERA at the time of the trade) and considered ready to step into a big league rotation. After a brief tune-up in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, the now 29-year-old Bannister joined Kansas City's starting staff and has remained there ever since.
Nearly four full years after the fact, it's easy to declare Moore the winner of the trade. Not only has Bannister out-WAR'ed Burgos 7.1 to 0.0 since the deal, but the latter hasn't even pitched since 2008 due to a litany of legal issues. Perhaps best known for his love of advanced statistics, Bannister has given the Royals 629.1 innings across 108 starts (and one relief appearance) in his four seasons with the team, posting 5.13 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Shoulder tendinitis this August prevented him from eclipsing the 150 inning mark for a fourth straight season.
After making $2.3MM in 2010, Bannister will go through the arbitration process one final time this winter before becoming a free agent after next season. He posted an ugly 6.34 ERA in 127.2 innings this year, and the .302/.365/.503 line opponents managed against him approximates Ryan Braun's 2010 production (.304/.365/.501). Never a big stuff guy, Bannister's fastball actually crept up in the last few seasons and now sits right around 90 mph.
Bannister was a fine piece when he was making six figures, but now that he's entered into multi-million dollar territory, Moore will assuredly think twice before tendering the righty a contract this offseason. In fact, Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star recently predicted that the team will shop Bannister around this offseason and could non-tender him if they don't find a taker. Bannister's name has been featured at each of the last two trade deadlines, but obviously no deal was made and now the team is facing the possibility of losing him for nothing.
If you haven't seen it already, or if you just want to read it again, make sure you check out the Q&A Tim conducted with Bannister back in 2008 (parts one, two, and three). Once you're done with that, click here to vote about what you think the Royals will do with Bannister after he season, and here to see the results.
Mets Front Office Rumors: Saturday
As one New York team attempts to complete an ALDS sweep today, the other continues to hunt for its next general manager. We know the Mets will interview Rick Hahn, Allard Baird, and Josh Byrnes this week, and that the club is also considering Sandy Alderson. Pat Gillick meanwhile, has removed himself from consideration for the position. Here are the latest updates from the team's GM search, with any new items added to the top of the list throughout the day:
- Jon Heyman tweets that Alderson seems to be excited about the opportunity with the Mets. In a separate tweet he stresses that even if Alderson ends up as the Mets' GM, Tony La Russa will not be joining his former general manager in New York.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter) that the Rays' Gerry Hunsicker isn't interested in the Mets' GM job.
- Alderson will be interviewed Thursday or Friday, writes David Lennon of Newsday (subscription required). Lennon's colleague, Ken Davidoff, calls Alderson a "dream candidate" for the Mets.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty told David Waldstein of the New York Times that if the Mets hired Alderson, Omar Minaya could work very well with him. According to Jocketty, Minaya is "deciding whether to stay or not and of course it would depend on who they bring in."
- In his Insider-only blog, ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that Major League Baseball would probably be glad to see the Mets hire Alderson, "to help restore a franchise that should be one of the sport's best."
Free Agent Stock Watch: A.J. Pierzynski
After toiling through most of the season, free-agent-to-be A.J. Pierzynski seemed to suddenly remember he was in a contract year and set the world on fire over the season's final two months. An .821 OPS in August followed by an .815 in September helped Pierzynski at least moderately salvage the worst offensive season of his ten-year career as a Major League regular. Let's look at Pierzynski's situation as he heads into free agency:
The Good
- Pierzynski owns a .284/.324/.424 slash line for his career, making him one of the game's better hitting catchers over the course of the past decade. He's not elite, but he's been consistent.
- Pierzynski has played in at least 128 games every year since 2002. He's been able to stay healthy and productive for the most part, despite all of those innings behind the plate.
- He's unlikely to be offered arbitration, due to his Type A status and $6.25MM base salary in 2010. This means a team interested in signing Pierzynski likely won't have to surrender a pick to do so.
- He makes consistent contact. Pierzynski struck out in just 8.2% of his plate appearances this season, and his career mark is a solid 12.1%.
The Bad
- While he doesn't strike out, he walks even less. A.J. walked in just 3% of his plate appearances this season and his career mark of 4% is hardly an improvement.
- He doesn't come with the reputation of being a great defender behind the plate (though he's improved at throwing out runners each of the past two seasons, including a 26.5% mark this season).
- Controversy seems to follow Pierzynski and he's been known to have attitude problems with other teams as well as his own.
- He's 34 years old and has 10,756.2 innings behind the plate since becoming a regular catcher in 2001. He's DH'ed just twice in his career; when he plays, he catches. Given those numbers, it's possible that his 2010 decline is a sign of his body wearing down rather than a statistical aberration.
The Verdict
Pierzynski has been a solid offensive catcher throughout the duration of his career, and there's always teams in need at the position. He's said he'd like to return to Chicago, but has to look at what's best for he and his family. This probably means he's going wherever they pay him the most, and given Tyler Flowers' presence in Chicago (despite a down year in Triple-A), it may not be there. We saw two teams overpay for worse catchers last season when the Royals and Nationals gave two-year deals to Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, respectively, so it wouldn't shock me to see Pierzynski and his agent look for two years. However, this year's class is much deeper. Pierzynski will have to compete with Victor Martinez, John Buck, Ramon Hernandez, and Rod Barajas, among others. As such, Pierzynski may be limited to a one-year deal in the $3M-$4M range.