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Nationals Notes: Harper, Right Field, Daniel

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The draft is less than a month away and once again, the Nationals appear likely to select the nation's best-known amateur with the first overall pick. Here are the details on the team's draft strategy and a couple other Nats-related notes:

Relievers Headed For Non-Tenders

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Often due to the save statistic, decent relievers are non-tendered every year because of their expected salaries.  It happened to Matt Capps last year.  Which relievers might get the axe on this year's December non-tender deadline and join the free agent market?

  • Bobby Jenks, White Sox.  Jenks has only blown one save this year, but Ozzie Guillen is already looking at other closer options.  Jenks has racked up strikeouts, but his control is off and he's given up a slew of hits.  I felt he was a longshot non-tender candidate last time around.  Tendering him a contract and giving a raise on his $7.5MM salary this time probably won't be appealing.
  • George Sherrill, Dodgers.  Giving Sherrill a bump from $4.5MM might not make sense for the Dodgers even if he was pitching well.  However, the lefty has completely lost it in the early going with 12 walks and 14 hits in 11.3 innings. 
  • Brian Bruney, Nationals.  Bruney would earn more than $1.5MM in 2011 as a fourth-time arbitration-eligible player.  With the walks spiraling out of control, there's a good chance the Nats cut him loose as they did with Mike MacDougal last year. 
  • Tony Pena, White Sox.  Pena has time to turn things around; he's only tossed 15.6 innings this year.  He's earning $1.2MM on the season and would go to arbitration for a second time.
  • Rafael Perez, Indians.  Perez is only earning $795K this year, but even the idea of a guaranteed contract might not work for the Tribe if he repeats his '09 season. 
  • The 2011 free agent list already contains a full slate of relievers, but keep these names in mind as potential additions.

Where Will Jayson Werth Sign?

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Back in February, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Andy Martino asked Jayson Werth if he sees himself as a comparable to Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.  Werth said:

"I think their situation is a little different from mine. I think I'm a season away from something like that. I think I'm really just focused on being part of something special again."

Talking to ESPN's Jayson Stark a few weeks ago, Werth's agent Jeff Borris did draw the Bay/Holliday comparison, while also suggesting his client has no comparables.  Borris added, "If Jayson isn't signed to an extension before he gets to free agency, he'll be the No. 1 position player out there."  Borris seems to place Werth above Carl Crawford.  

Werth is off to a blazing .349/.417/.688 start for the Phillies this year, with counting stats that project to more than 35 home runs and 120 RBIs.  31 in a few weeks, Werth's injury concerns are behind him.  He's ready to cash in – he told Bernard Fernandez he's played his whole career for this season.  I think bidding could start at five years and $80MM.  Who's in?

  • The Red Sox control Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew through 2011 and Jacoby Ellsbury through 2013.  But Werth is a longer-term solution, and Theo Epstein could clear a spot with a trade. 
  • The Tigers could allow Johnny Damon to leave and sign Werth, shifting Magglio Ordonez to left.  They'll have money to work with, but could find other needs more pressing.
  • Could the Royals make a splash?  It might require raising payroll.
  • The Brewers could have an opening in right field if they non-tender Corey Hart.  They'll probably be more worried about Prince Fielder's future, however.
  • The Yankees are seen as a prime candidate for Crawford or Werth, as their only significant outfield commitment is to Nick Swisher.
  • The Giants have to take a look, as Werth could anchor their lineup.
  • The Mariners could use Werth's bat, but he'd probably have to be willing to play left field.  They'd have to bump the payroll back up.
  • The Rangers have potential outfield openings, but ownership would need to be settled.
  • The Nationals don't have a long-term answer in right field, and may look to replace Adam Dunn's bat.

Nationals Pitchers With Major Incentives

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The Nationals guaranteed over $22MM during the offseason to free agent pitchers, with the lion's share going to Jason Marquis.  But that total also includes three interesting signings, hurlers who scuffled in 2009 but had prior success.  Matt Capps, Chien-Ming Wang, and Scott Olsen were lured to Washington D.C. in part due to big-time incentive clauses.  Let's take a look.

  • Capps was non-tendered by the Pirates and drew interest from a dozen clubs.  It came down to the Nationals and Cubs, and Capps ultimately took a one-year, $3.5MM guarantee from the Nats.  They have the added bonus of controlling him in 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player.  Capps' contract includes solid incentives for games finished – up to $425K.  He's already finished 16 games, tying Francisco Cordero for the MLB lead.  Capps should be able to max out his incentives this year and earn $3.925MM in total.
  • Wang signed for a $2MM base salary, and he's also arbitration-eligible after the season.  His incentives exceed his base, as he can tack on $3MM.  Wang is recovering from shoulder surgery and hasn't headed out on a rehab assignment quite yet, so it appears he won't max out his incentives.
  • If you blinked, you might've missed Scott Olsen's time as a free agent.  After earning $2.8MM in '09, Olsen was non-tendered on the December 10th deadline.  The Nats scooped him back up on the 13th with a $1MM base salary.  Olsen can earn $2.825MM in incentives based on starts, up to 33.  The 26-year-old southpaw is making over $85K extra per start.  He's already made five, and sports a 3.54 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9.  Like the others, the Nationals control Olsen for 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player.  If he continues looking like the Olsen of '06, another non-tender is out of the question.

D’Backs Reach New Agreement With Socrates Brito

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May 10th: Brito has reached a new agreement with the Diamondbacks for less money, tweets SI's Melissa Segura.  The contract is pending MLB approval.

April 26th: MLB.com's Steve Gilbert is reporting that Arizona has voided the contract of 17-year-old prospect Socrates Brito following the outfielder's 50-game suspension for PED use.  This doesn't necessarily mean that Brito's days as a Diamondback are over, as assistant GM Peter Woodfork said the team "will attempt to renegotiate new contract terms" with the Dominican teenager. 

Brito signed with the club in February for a contract worth $190K.  D'Backs director of Latin American operations Junior Noboa told The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro that Brito bore some similarties to "a young Bernie Williams."  Brito wasn't expected to make his debut in North American pro ball until the 2011 season.

2011 Contract Issues: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins face a pair of contractual options after the season:

  • Designated hitter Jason Kubel has a $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout.  If he is able to crank things up and approach his '09 production, I'd expect the Twins to exercise.
  • Infielder Nick Punto has a $5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Punto may eventually justify the $4.5MM net price in some statistical or technical sense, but this feels well beyond what he could get as a free agent.

The Twins have plenty of free agents coming off the books, including Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jim Thome.  The potential losses of Guerrier and Crain, the Twins' current relief innings leaders, will hopefully be offset by the return of Joe Nathan.  Assuming Punto leaves and Kubel stays, the Twins will free up $23.55MM in departing free agents.  Of course, they may elect to re-sign some of them.  Another $100K comes off with Mike Lamb's buyout being paid.

Increases to players under contract will eat up $19.35MM of the free cash.  Joe Mauer leads with a $10.5MM increase, while Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Baker also get decent bumps.  Then there are the arbitration cases.  Kevin Slowey and Alexi Casilla would go for the first time, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, and Pat Neshek a second, Clay Condrey a third, and J.J. Hardy a fourth.

Even if they let all departing free agents leave aside from Kubel, the Twins will need to raise payroll past $100MM just to retain under-contract and arbitration-eligible players.

Latin Links: Alderson, Coa, Batista, Pirates

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The latest from the Caribbean and beyond…

  • Sandy Alderson has been doing the rounds stateside to describe his reform efforts in the Dominican Republic. Aside from last week's lengthy interview with MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, Alderson spoke with the New York Times' Michael S. Schmidt on Saturday and the San Diego Union-Tribune's Tim Sullivan yesterday. One interesting revelation from the most recent piece: Alderson concedes that the strongest resistance to his presence has come not from the oft-vilified independent agents known as "buscones," but rather from what Sullivan labels "MLB employees whose interests appear to be in conflict and whose income may be a product of working both sides of the street."
  • The Yankees signed 17-year-old Venezuelan catcher Rainiero Coa, according to Annelida Yoris Rivas at the Venezuelan paper Nueva Prensa (link in Spanish). A lengthy bio in the decidedly lo-fi Diario el Progreso gives more details: Coa is a recently converted third baseman/shortstop whose hitting in international junior tournaments drew interest from a number of clubs. However, his defense and arm behind the plate were what sealed the deal at a recent Yankees tryout in Venezuela.
  • Switch-hitting shortstop Jean Carlos Batista has agreed to terms with the Astros, according to the Dominican Prospect League site. Batista reportedly led the league in average and led his team in every offensive category for most of the DPL's season. Last year, Kiley McDaniel at Baseball Prospectus labeled Batista a "five-tool talent" and reported heavy interest in the prospect.
  • The Pirates also inked two 17-year-olds from the DPL, right-handed starter Isaac Sanchez and speedy left-handed outfielder Miguel DeAza.

Discussion: Possible Targets For The Mariners

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As the Mariners' offense continues to struggle, they're likely looking to make deals with teams that have rapidly fallen out of contention, writes Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.  Stone writes that the teams falling into that category are the Royals, Indians, Astros, and Orioles.

Kansas City's Jose Guillen has been mentioned as a possibility for the M's, though as of yesterday they have reportedly yet to make a formal inquiry.  Lance Berkman of the Astros has been mentioned as a fit for Seattle, though Stone points to his health, salary, and poor performance this season as reasons why Jack Zduriencik would want to steer clear of him.

Stone suggests that Baltimore could offer up Luke Scott or Garrett Atkins, though they have been struggling mightily.  On the flipside, Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada are in the final years of their respective deals and could be available at some point, though they have been hitting well for an O's team that desperately needs offense.

Austin Kearns and ex-Mariner Russell Branyan could be pried away from the Indians (especially Branyan), but Stone says to "forget about" Cleveland dealing Grady Sizemore.  Moving the reasonably-priced star outfielder would be a PR nightmare for a club that has made of a habit of losing their marquee players in recent years.

Stone also says to keep an eye on Hank Blalock, who is hitting quite well in the International League and has an out-clause in his deal with the Rays.  However, the M's passed on the two-time All-Star this winter.

Also hampering Seattle is that GMs from around baseball seem unwilling to make trades at this point in the season.

What other sluggers could you see the Mariners inquiring on?  Will they be able to talk a GM into making a significant trade with them at this juncture?

Odds & Ends: Huff, Posey, Lewis, Yankees, Johnson

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Congratulations to Dallas Braden on throwing the 19th perfect game in MLB history.  Let's check out some links from around the web..

Will Red Sox Have To Part With McDonald?

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Despite strong play in the majors and Triple-A this season, Darnell McDonald's Red Sox future is in limbo, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.  With Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury set to return soon, the club will have to open up two roster spots.

Fellow outfielder Jonathan Van Every will almost certainly be the first casualty upon Cameron's return, though he still has options remaining.  McDonald, 31, is out of options.  With his strong play in the last three weeks, MacPherson writes that it is not hard to imagine another team snapping him up.

In 62 major league plate appearances, McDonald has a slash line of .264/.350/.491 with 3 homers.  For Triple-A Pawtucket, he hit .341/.372/.683 with 2 HRs in 43 plate appearances.

Bill Hall would be a candidate to get the axe before McDonald if not for the fact that the club needs their fifth outfielder to be able to play the infield as well.  Hall's career UZR/150 scores at second base, shortstop, and third base are 0.7, 1.8, and 3.1, respectively.

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