Five Non-Tenders That Shaped The 2010 Pennant Race
Some non-tendered players end up performing like stars in new cities, but the best contract offer possible is sometimes the one a team doesn't make. Here's a look at five players who were non-tendered last year and impacted the 2010 pennant race:
- Matt Capps – Capps has been excellent in 24 appearances for the Twins since coming over in a deal that sent catching prospect Wilson Ramos to Washington. The Pirates non-tendered Capps last December and the Twins and Nationals profit because of Pittsburgh's decision.
- Dustin Moseley – Hey, he's pitched 60.1 innings for one of the best teams in baseball and even stepped into a starting role when Andy Pettitte went down. The Angels’ decision to non-tender Moseley isn’t necessarily one they would like to do over, but the swingman has added value for the Bronx Bombers, posting a 4.77 ERA so far.
- Jonny Gomes – The Reds non-tendered Gomes only to re-sign him later in the offseason. The left fielder has a .761 OPS and 17 homers for the playoff-bound Reds.
- Garrett Atkins – The Rockies guaranteed the combination of Melvin Mora, Jason Giambi and Miguel Olivo less than it would have cost to retain Atkins through arbitration. Instead of paying Atkins more than $7MM, GM Dan O'Dowd wisely non-tendered him and spent on other needs.
- Kelly Johnson – Omar Infante and Martin Prado have produced well, so the decision to non-tender Johnson didn't necessarily hurt the Braves. Still, we can say with confidence that this year's Braves team would have seemed much different with more of Johnson (25 homers and .860 OPS in Arizona) and less of Prado and Infante.
Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers
Let's round out the American League side of our arbitration eligibles series with a look at the Rangers.
- First time: Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Darren O'Day
- Second time: Josh Hamilton, Mark Lowe, Dustin Nippert, Esteban German
- Third time: Jeff Francoeur, C.J. Wilson, Brandon McCarthy
Locks to be tendered contracts: Cruz, Murphy, O'Day, Hamilton, Lowe, and Wilson. There will be sizeable raises in this bunch. Cruz has 55 home runs over the last two seasons, Hamilton had an MVP season, O'Day has been quietly dominant, and Wilson and Murphy are also coming off their best years. Lowe had back surgery in June and might not pitch for the Rangers this year, but they acquired him with that knowledge and clearly want him for 2011.
Nippert has slipped since last year, but the raise he gets on this year's $665K could be small. McCarthy tossed 56.3 minor league innings this year, dealing with shoulder issues. He's a non-tender candidate given his $1.3MM salary. Likewise for Jeff Francoeur at $5MM, even with 42 stellar Rangers plate appearances added to his resume. German, a role player, will probably be cut.
Odds & Ends: Beltre, Athletics, Gibson
Links for Tuesday, as David Price tries to clinch a playoff berth for the Rays a day after tweeting that last night's attendance was embarrassing…
- Adrian Beltre tells WEEI's Rob Bradford his decision on where to sign as a free agent will be "more of a family thing" this offseason.
- Athletics owner Lew Wolff expressed his displeasure with one-year signings, in comments made to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Kirk Gibson has a high probability of remaining the Diamondbacks' manager, reports ESPN's Buster Olney.
Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Josh Wilson, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Sean White, Jason Vargas
- Second time: David Aardsma
- Third time: Brandon League, Ryan Langerhans
- Fourth time: Casey Kotchman, Jose Lopez
Vargas, Aardsma, and League are locks to be tendered contracts for 2011. Aardsma's second-consecutive 30-save season should result in a nice raise, and the Mariners might feel compelled to trade him.
Kotchman will be cut, as will Lopez after his option is declined. Langerhans also figures to be non-tendered, but like last year he could be re-signed to a minor league deal.
First timers Wilson and Rowland-Smith have statistics ugly enough to keep their arbitration rewards low. Wilson might be retained for his defensive skills, Rowland-Smith for his previous promise. White might still be in jeopardy.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Duchscherer
The Athletics' last offseason was a risky one, with the team committing over $17MM to Ben Sheets, Coco Crisp, and Justin Duchscherer despite the trio barely playing in 2009. Duchscherer was the least risky of the bunch in that the A's only guaranteed him $1.75MM. The move did not pay off, as Duchscherer provided only 28 innings before undergoing season-ending hip surgery in June.
Duchscherer told MLB.com's Jane Lee he's open to returning to the A's, but let's take a look at his situation as he heads to free agency again.
The Pros
- Duchscherer told Lee, "When I'm healthy, I've always proven that I can pitch." The 32-year-old righty made only 27 starts from 2008-10, but he posted a 2.60 ERA in those 169.6 innings.
- The price will be right – after two lost seasons in a row, Duchscherer should be looking at a smaller guarantee or even a minor league deal this offseason.
- Both of Duchscherer's hips and his pitching elbow have already been fixed, so as he says, "I can't imagine what else could go wrong."
The Cons
- Clearly Duchscherer can't be counted on for innings; you just have to hope for a year with minimal DL time.
- These upside pitching signings have a high failure rate – of the $36.35MM guaranteed this year to Duchscherer, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, Scott Olsen, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, and Chien-Ming Wang, only Myers was worth it.
The Verdict
Duchscherer will still find a big league deal, but his base salary will be closer to $1MM this time. A few weeks ago, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith listed 14 teams that might be interested in this type of starter during the offseason.
Nationals Unlikely To Re-Sign Dunn?
The Nationals are unlikely to re-sign slugger Adam Dunn, according to MASN's Ben Goessling. Goessling's sources say GM Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman find Dunn's defense untenable, and the team will seek a better defensive first baseman like Carlos Pena. Goessling also hears that outfielder Jayson Werth "could be a possibility" for the Nationals this offseason.
On September 19th, Dunn told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that extension talks "have picked back up." At that time Dunn expected to reach free agency in November, but still re-sign with Washington.
Dunn is known to be seeking four years but would be open to three with the Nationals. Goessling expects the Nats to offer arbitration to the Type A free agent. If they do, Dunn will have to decide whether to accept on November 30th. As I mentioned earlier today, Dunn's low Elias number (projected at 75.000 currently) increases the chances of the Nationals failing to snag a first-round pick as part of the compensation.
21 Free Agents Who May Cost A Draft Pick To Sign
Only one week remains for the Elias Ranking landscape to be altered. Many players appear locked in as Type A free agents. If a Type A free agent turns down an arbitration offer from his old club, his new team has to surrender a draft pick as compensation. MLBTR identified 21 Type As who could be offered arbitration. The ultimate number on November 23rd will be smaller, but these are the candidates. The player's specific number can be important, in cases where a team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration.
- Jayson Werth – 92.118. Werth will almost certainly be offered arbitration and will turn it down. It will not matter if his new team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration – the Phillies will receive that team's best available draft pick. At this time the best pick any team can hope for is the Tigers' 19th overall choice.
- Rafael Soriano – 91.522. The Rays might prefer a cheaper closing option in 2011, but Soriano is very likely to turn down an arbitration offer this time around.
- Victor Martinez – 87.946. He's looking for more than two years, so he won't be accepting arbitration.
- Cliff Lee – 87.547. Could a team sign Lee as well as Martinez, Soriano, or Werth? That'd be the Rangers' least-preferred scenario, assuming they don't re-sign Lee.
- Carl Crawford – 83.718. Crawford is another lock to be offered and turn down arbitration, and the Rays have to hope he's not signed by a team that also signs one of the four players ranked above him.
- Adrian Beltre – 80.714. Remember when Scott Boras' free agent crop didn't look that great? He's got Werth and Beltre; will he add Yu Darvish?
- Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000. The Rangers have a $9MM mutual option with Vlad. These are rarely exercised by both sides, though it is possible.
- Paul Konerko – 77.143. Despite his monster season an arbitration for Konerko is no sure thing. Through arbitration he could get a raise on this year's $12MM salary, and the White Sox might not want to risk that.
- Carl Pavano – 76.217. Pavano figures to seek out a multiyear deal. If he finds that elsewhere, a draft pick will be the added cost.
- Jorge de la Rosa – 76.144. De La Rosa also seems likely to turn down arbitration in search of multiple years.
- Matt Guerrier – 75.978. The Type A relievers are anyone's guess. All of these guys know they're best served if an arbitration offer does not come.
- Scott Downs – 75.145. The reported July asking price for Downs from the Blue Jays implied they're dead set on offering him arbitration.
- Adam Dunn – 75.000. I don't see Dunn accepting an offer from the Nationals – he'll want multiyear security. With so many Type As ranked higher, the Nationals could receive a second, third, or fourth-round pick as one of the two.
- Ramon Hernandez – 74.903. The Reds hold the leverage here. They know that if they offer arbitration they can have Hernandez back on a one-year deal or else stick him with the draft pick stink.
- Dan Wheeler – 73.696. How likely is it for a player to have his option declined and then be offered arbitration? The Rays did it with Gregg Zaun last year, resulting in supplemental first round pick Drew Vettleson.
- Frank Francisco – 73.551. For many of these relievers, both the team and the player probably would have preferred Type B status.
- Jason Frasor – 73.442.
- Takashi Saito – 72.310.
- Arthur Rhodes – 72.217.
- Grant Balfour – 72.029.
- Pedro Feliciano – 70.213.
- There are other projected Type As, including Bronson Arroyo and Ted Lilly, but the players listed above I find more likely to receive arbitration offers.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 26th, 2010. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
Poll: Will The Brewers Trade Prince Fielder
Prince Fielder's just 26 years old, but he already has 192 homers to his name. He's leading the National League in walks this year, and though his power numbers aren't as impressive as usual, he's now fifth in the league with 32 homers.
Next year, Fielder's last before hitting free agency, he will earn a raise from his current $10.5MM salary, so he's not exactly a bargain. Technically it's possible that the Brewers work out an extension with Fielder and agent Scott Boras, but lots of people, including Ryan Braun, expect the Brewers to trade their first baseman this offseason.
They could use starting pitching and Fielder could help them acquire a controllable arm or two. But Prince may not have quite as much trade value as you might think, so it's not as simple as plucking the top young pitchers from opponents' depth charts. What do you think GM Doug Melvin will do with his first baseman?
Will the Brewers trade Fielder this offseason?
Click here to vote and here to view the results.
Angels Don’t Face Financial Limitations
The Angels will be in the red this year, but that won’t stop them from spending. As they head toward their first losing season since 2003, it’s becoming apparent that the Angels will lose about $10MM this year, a baseball source told Mark Saxon of ESPNLos Angeles.com.
But Angels fans can still dream about a 2011 outfield that includes Carl Crawford. Multiple sources tell Saxon that the organization plans to push aggressively to sign the left fielder when he hits free agency after the season. Speaking in general terms, GM Tony Reagins said the team will be able to spend this offseason.
"You always have to take account of how the finances work, but we're not limited financially in any way," Reagins said. "Whatever we need to do that makes sense and that's reasonable, we'll address."
Crawford, Adrian Beltre and Jayson Werth are among the top free agent position players who could draw interest from the Angels. The team’s rotation appears to be set, but the club will likely pursue relievers and consider trading Mike Napoli at some point this winter.