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Archives for September 2010

Odds & Ends: Papelbon, Yankees, Pujols, Webb

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 27, 2010 at 7:14pm CDT

Links for Monday, as Roy Halladay attempts to lead the Phillies to another division title…

  • Good news for Jack Zduriencik: Mariners president Chuck Armstrong told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that team executives are "not thinking about changing the general manager at all."
  • Jim Donaldson of the Providence Herald asks a question the Red Sox are likely wondering about, too: does Jonathan Papelbon deserve a raise in 2011?
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Alex Speier of WEEI.com that the trio of Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson provides the team with a well-rounded outfield going forward. The Yankees could always bid on Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford, but those outfielders appear to be luxuries, not necessities.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes (on Twitter) that Albert Pujols would approve trades to the Astros, Marlins, Dodgers and Angels. The first baseman isn't going anywhere, but Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel has a little fun and wonders what it would take for the Marlins to acquire him.
  • Brandon Webb, who hasn't pitched in the majors since making his 2009 season debut, won't pitch for the Diamondbacks this year, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Webb is about to hit free agency and will be looking for a significant base salary. He'll have to prove he's healthy first, so he'll pitch in the instructional league this week.  Webb reiterated his desire to return to the D'Backs, and new GM Kevin Towers is open to the idea as well.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Brandon Webb Jonathan Papelbon

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Ozzie Guillen To Manage White Sox In 2011

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 27, 2010 at 5:12pm CDT

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who is under contract for 2011, told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times that he'll be "with the White Sox next season" and that he wants to return (Twitter links). There has been uncertainty around Guillen, partly because of the many upcoming managerial vacancies and partly because he appeared to want more job security.

The Marlins, in particular, seemed like a potential fit, but Guillen isn't going anywhere soon. GM Kenny Williams says he won't allow rival teams to interview Guillen for potential jobs. The 46-year-old is now in his seventh season as White Sox manager and has a regular season record of 595-533. Guillen, who led the team to a World Weries title in 2005, steered Chicago back into contention this year after a poor start to the season.

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Chicago White Sox

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Remembering The 1983 Trade Deadline

By Howard Megdal | September 27, 2010 at 4:25pm CDT

Ah, the sweet summer of 1983. Sally Ride became the first woman in space. Vanessa Williams was named Miss America. And a little something called the Nintendo Entertainment System went on sale in Japan.

Meanwhile, our national pastime saw the gears turn as spring turned into summer, then fall (as is the custom). A number of fascinating trades dotted the baseball landscape, and in some cases, helped turn pennant races.

The first major deal did not, however. On June 15, the Cardinals traded Keith Hernandez to the Mets for Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey. The trade is, in many ways, the original sin of overpaying for a closer. Allen had been solid in relief for the Mets, with Ownbey a live arm, but neither one provided much value. Allen posted an ERA well over 4.00 in the remainder of his career, while Ownbey pitched in parts of two seasons with St. Louis.

And Hernandez? After the trade he won six Gold Gloves, a World Series, hit .297/.387/.429 as a Met, and kissed Elaine Benes (no relation to Andy or Alan). In other words: trading two middling arms for the 29-year-old star first baseman? Always a good move. Neither team figured in the postseason races, however.

Though the Astros fell six games short in the NL West, one of my favorite deals came from Houston on August 10: a swap of offensively-challenged speedster Omar Moreno to the Yankees for Jerry Mumphrey, who did everything Moreno did, except much better.

At the time of the deal, both were struggling. Moreno was hitting .242, Mumphrey .262. But batting averages are where the similarities ended between the two players. Moreno had no power, hardly ever walked, and had a career OPS+ of 79 to show for it. Mumphrey had some power and plate discipline, and his career OPS+ of 108 reflected that as well.

But after the trade, while Moreno continued as the player he was, Mumphrey had two months of Ty Cobb-style production, hitting .336/.425/.455 for the Astros. What can I say? I like seeing teams rewarded for making smart moves.

On August 19, two pitchers who went on to become teammates for the elite Oakland teams of the late 80s were traded for each other without the Athletics involved. The Dodgers dealt Dave Stewart, Ricky Wright and $200K to the Rangers for Rick Honeycutt.

If you are my age (30), you think of Honeycutt as a reliever, but he had quite a bit of success as a starter. His 2.42 ERA led the American League in 1983 (though he switched leagues, only his AL starts counted toward the AL ERA title), and his 2.84 ERA ranked sixth in the National League in 1984.

Stewart, meanwhile, appeared to be making the leap to elite pitcher in 1983. He pitched to a 2.96 ERA with the Dodgers before the trade, and a 2.14 ERA with the Rangers after the trade. Entering his age-27 season in 1984, the future seemed bright. But a 4.73 ERA in 1984, followed by 5.46 ERA in 1985 led the Rangers to trade Stewart for Rich Surhoff (of the B.J. Surhoff Surhoffs) and the Phillies to then release him. Needless to say, that turned out to be a mistake when Oakland picked him up in May 1986.

Honeycutt's path to Oakland was more direct- the Dodgers traded him to Oakland in August 1987 for Tim Belcher.

But we digress- back to 1983! On August 29, the Atlanta Braves dramatically overpaid for strikeout pitcher Len Barker. He'd led the American League in strikeouts in 1980 and 1981, but by 1983 the 27-year-old Barker's ERA was rising while his strikeout rate was dropping- a bad time to deal for a pitcher. But Atlanta, chasing the Dodgers, gave up Brett Butler, Brook Jacoby, Rick Behenna and $150K to get Barker.

While Barker pitched reasonably well – a 3.82 ERA in six starts for the Braves – Butler went on to record another 2,137 hits after leaving the Braves, with an OPS+ of 113. Jacoby's success was not as long-lasting, but he had his moments, many of them occurring in 1987 during his .300/.387/.541 campaign. Amazingly, during that season, Jacoby had 32 home runs, but just 69 RBI to show for it, thanks to a .221/.362/.295 line with runners in scoring position.

And yet? It was still too much to give up for Barker, who by 1987, was in his final season.

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Remembering Past Deadlines

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Izturis “Definitely” Wants To Return To Baltimore

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 27, 2010 at 3:34pm CDT

The Orioles haven’t won more than 64 games since Cesar Izturis signed with Baltimore two winters ago, but he’d still like to return in 2011 if the Orioles are interested in re-signing him.

“Definitely, definitely,” Izturis told MLBTR this weekend. “It’s been good here the last two years and they’ve treated me well so far and I’m going to be here if they want me. If they want me, I’ll be here. If not, I want to play every day.”

Earlier in the season, Izturis told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that the Orioles are his first choice and that hasn’t changed, especially since the team is winning under new manager Buck Showalter.

“We have turned around completely,” Izturis said. “The numbers are up there, more wins and we’re playing much better for him.”

The team is better, but Izturis has had a disappointing year at the plate and he knows it. The switch hitter is batting .236/.280/.273 this season with 11 stolen bases (16 attempts). Izturis has played basically every day for the O’s and his defense has been good, according to UZR. The defensive metric ranks Izturis as an above-average fielder and has for eight of the last nine seasons.

Izturis now earns $2.6MM in the second season of his two-year $5MM deal. He doesn’t figure to sign for as much guaranteed money this offseason, but light-hitting, sure-handed shortstops can find major league deals. Adam Everett signed for $1.55MM last winter, though the Tigers ultimately released him.

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Baltimore Orioles Cesar Izturis

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Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 2:26pm CDT

The Athletics are next in our arbitration-eligible series.  Their candidates:

  • First time: Craig Breslow, Dallas Braden, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck
  • Second time: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Rajai Davis, Boof Bonser, Joey Devine
  • Third time: Jeremy Hermida, Conor Jackson, Jack Cust, Gabe Gross

Hermida and Jackson, once top prospects, are now locks to be non-tendered.  In a poll earlier this month, 71% of you predicted that Jackson will be cut.  MLBTR readers also voted on Kouzmanoff, with 38% expecting a non-tender.  Mark me down for a non-tender vote on the third baseman.  It appears that Buck received the service time needed for Super Two status.  He had a decent year at Triple A, but he's still a likely non-tender.  I imagine Bonser will be non-tendered for the flexibility, even if the A's want him around for next year.  Gross should round up the team's sizeable list of December cuts.

Breslow and Braden are locks to be tendered contracts.  Sweeney had season-ending knee surgery in July, but I expect the A's to retain him.  Davis has been disappointing, but he wouldn't get much of a raise.  Devine missed the entire season with lingering elbow concerns, but he could be kept again for less than $1MM.

Due in part to a career-best .271 batting average, Cust has an OBP near .400 this year.  Last time around the A's non-tendered Cust, re-signed him, and designated him for assignment in April.  I'll guess he's non-tendered again.

The A's have to decide on a dozen arbitration-eligible players, but the salaries of those tendered contracts will be modest.

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Arbitration Eligibles Oakland Athletics

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Rosenthal On Red Sox, Yankees, Garza

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 1:37pm CDT

The Red Sox will "explore their options" with Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  They're also "already checking into" Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, possibly with the idea of moving Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field and making Mike Cameron a pricey fourth outfielder.  Rosenthal's other musings…

  • Rosenthal's quick math suggests the Yankees would have to stay out of the Crawford/Werth derby – barring a payroll increase –  if they sign Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee.
  • Rosenthal finds the offseason trade market for starting pitching unimpressive.  Though Matt Garza is "drawing long looks" from other teams, the Rays are more likely to trade a starter after the 2011 season.  As for Royals ace Zack Greinke, the team might be inclined to let him rebuild value in the first half.  Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named five other starters who might be available this winter.
  • John Hart, Stan Kasten, or Sandy Alderson could be a fit for the Mets if they look to add an experienced executive above Omar Minaya, speculates Rosenthal.  Rosenthal's source does not see Kasten replacing Bob Dupuy as baseball's second in command.
  • Felipe Lopez wouldn't net the Red Sox a draft pick if his next deal is of the minor league variety, notes Rosenthal.
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Boston Red Sox New York Mets Tampa Bay Rays Carl Crawford Felipe Lopez Jayson Werth Matt Garza

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Heyman On Cubs, Pettitte, V-Mart

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 1:18pm CDT

SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a look at the Cubs' managerial opening.  He feels that interim manager Mike Quade is now a real possibility, with Ryne Sandberg the other top contender.  Heyman's other info:

  • "Word around the team" is that Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte is 50-50 on whether he'll play next year.
  • Heyman passes along an unconfirmed report from a competing executive that Boston's offer to Victor Martinez was about $22MM over two years.  Martinez's former teammate C.C. Sabathia expects the catcher to sign elsewhere, as he's seeking a four-year contract.  Whatever the amount, Martinez rejected the two-year offer in August.  Martinez profiles as a highly-ranked Type A free agent, so the Red Sox might at least end up with a pair of draft picks.  Any first-rounder received will be the 19th overall pick at best.
  • Jose Reyes "expects the Mets to either pick up his $11 million option or offer him an extension," writes Heyman.  Reyes sports a .284/.322/.429 line this year and could be primed for a big 2011.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs New York Mets New York Yankees Andy Pettitte C.C. Sabathia Jose Reyes Victor Martinez

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Odds & Ends: Pirates, Marlins, Rangers

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 12:52pm CDT

Six years ago today, the Rockies signed righty Jhoulys Chacin as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela.  This year as a rookie, Chacin has a 3.26 ERA in 132.3 innings.  Links for Monday…

  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington indicated a preference to sign a free agent pitcher to a multiyear deal, in comments made to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  • The Marlins are considering a slight payroll bump for 2011 to the $48-50MM range, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • The Rangers signed a 20-year extension with Fox Sports Southwest worth $3 billion, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
  • The Brewers' trade return on a one-year rental of Prince Fielder may be disappointing, suggests Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.  In a U.S.S. Mariner post, Cameron explains why he doesn't find Fielder a good fit in Seattle.
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Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Prince Fielder

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Next Year’s Adrian Beltre

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 11:43am CDT

When the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $10MM deal in January, Adrian Beltre was coming off an injury-marred campaign.  He'd played in a career-low 111 games, and his offense had tanked.  The combination of Beltre being represented by Scott Boras and the third baseman's previous consistent work resulted in the large one-year commitment with Boston.  The deal paid off for both sides, as Beltre combined good health, his typically stellar defense, and a .319/.365/.552 line.  Which free agent position players are candidates to become the Adrian Beltre of 2011?

  • Derrek Lee – Lee was consistently solid for the 2007-09 Cubs, averaging over four wins above replacement (using the FanGraphs version of the stat).  In 2010 his power took a dive while his strikeout rate jumped, and he turned 35 this month.  He's dealt with side, hand, back, hamstring, thumb, and foot injuries this year.
  • Johnny Damon – Damon averaged 3.7 WAR for the 2008-09 Yankees but dropped to 2.0 this year for the Tigers.  He still gets on base; maybe the power will return in the right situation.  He's battled back and calf injuries this year.  Damon turns 37 in November.
  • Lance Berkman– He averaged 4.7 WAR from 2007-09, including a monster '08.  The walks remain but Berkman's power plummeted in 2010.  He had knee surgery in March and had fluid drained from it five times before being activated on April 20th.  He also fought groin and ankle injuries.  He'll turn 35 in February.
  • Jose Lopez – He averaged 2.4 WAR from 2008-09, but sits at just 0.2 this year.  The cause, again, is a loss of power.  He missed time with a hamstring injury, but has been mostly healthy this year.  One major change was a move from second to third base.  Lopez figures to reach free agency by way of a declined option and a non-tender.  He'll turn 27 in November, so youth is on his side.
  • Carlos Pena– He averaged over four wins for 2007-09, but stands at just 1.1 this year.  He had surgery a year ago for two broken fingers, and also dealt with a foot injury during the season.  Pena turns 33 in May.  He's also represented by Boras, and is the most likely player here to get a Beltre-like deal.  However, none of these players match Beltre's combination of relative youth and defensive prowess. 
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Uncategorized Adrian Beltre

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Offseason Dates Moved Up

By Tim Dierkes | September 27, 2010 at 10:54am CDT

On Thursday, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the players' union and MLB "reached an agreement to lengthen the offseason negotiating periods for free agents by moving up the annual filing, arbitration and tender dates, starting immediately after this season."  Today, MLBTR has learned the details, including the new 2010 deadlines.

  • Instead of the typical 15-day free agent filing period following the World Series, it will be five days.
  • Typically the deadline for a team to offer arbitration to its own free agents has been December 1st; it's now November 23rd.
  • December 7th has been the deadline for free agents to accept or decline arbitration offers from their old teams; it's now November 30th.
  • December 12th has been the non-tender deadline; it's now December 2nd.
  • The above dates are confirmed.  On the unconfirmed side, there is word that the Rule 5 draft may be moved to November 20th.  The Rule 5 draft typically marks the end of the Winter Meetings, but that gathering takes place from December 6-9 this year in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.
  • The goal here, according to Stark, is to lengthen the offseason free agent negotiating period, resulting in fewer unsigned players in February and March.
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Uncategorized

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