Let's check out some Phillies news courtesy of MLB.com's Todd Zolecki..
- For some time we have heard that the Phillies are not serious about keeping Jayson Werth as he is said to be seeking something similar to the seven-year, $120MM that Matt Holliday secured last winter. However, the Phillies could be in position to bring Werth back if his market falls and he instead looks for a deal in the range of four years.
- If Werth does not return to Philadelphia in 2011, the club likely won't sign someone to replace him if it's not a clear upgrade. There are several right fielders who will be available via free agency and trade, and one player that reportedly interests the Phillies is Carlos Quentin of the White Sox. However, Zolecki feels that he's not the strong right-handed bat the club wants and we learned last week that Chicago is not shopping him.
- Of the names that have been mentioned, Zolecki feels that Josh Willingham, Jeff Francoeur, and Matt Diaz make the most sense for the club as they are affordable and "ideal platoon players."
holliday signed 7/120..not a chance werth gets that. 5yr/70mil is absolute high i would go
Agreed there. He will sign for closer to Jason Bay money then Holliday.
I agree that 5/70 is the best he’ll get! Holliday is easily the better player and the Cards bid against themselves for him, thus overpaying him! I got a feeling he’s gonna get 4/56 as no one is that desperate to overpay for a no.6 hitter after seeing how well the Mets signing of Jason Bay( a better career hitter) turned out! Boras is gonna lose on this one, watch!
Josh Willingham is neither a platoon player nor a right fielder.
Ugh. Anyone but Willingham. Adding Willingham to that lineup wouldn’t be fair.
I’m pretty sure Werth is better than Willingham
Willingham could be just as good as Werth in Citizens.
Willingham’s bat could be just as good as Werth’s in Citizens.
citizens bank park may be small but the phillies generate most their homeruns on the road
Nope…94 homers at home, 72 on the road.
Wait…James Owen? The euphonium player? Goes to MSU?
In what universe is Willingham a platoon player? What a stupid thing to say.
i think theyll platoon him with both brown and ibanez and he’ll play most games. ibanez is getting up there in age and brown isnt quite ready yet for full time play so i think if they get willingham he’ll jump between left and right almost daily, rtaher than sit out half the games
ya i was gonna say, i’m pretty sure the nat’s won’t view willingham as a platoon player if they’re trading him.
Any team trading for him has to be concerned a little over the fact he has not logged 500 ABs in any season the past 3 years. Not that he couldn’t if healthy, he has no problem hitting RH or LH.
the teams trading for him have their concerns, but doesn’t mean that Nats will take less for him. Nationals just wont make the deal. Especially intra-division, he wont be cheap.
Why would they want to keep Werth when they have Dom Brown, who I thought was ready to start in RF.
Dom Brown is a lefty. That would give the Phillies another lefty in a lineup that has 4(+?) already (Howard, Utley, Ibanez, Rollins and maybe more I forget). They need a right handed hitter more then a lefty so teams can just bring in a lefty specialist to take the down the center of that lineup. And reports on Dom Brown have been down. No longer is he considered a future superstar and he has a lot of trouble against lefties.
Rollins and Victorino are switch hitters. Utley, Howard and Ibanez are lefties. Polanco and Ruiz are righties. But your point about needing a righty hitter is true.
Should have said a “middle of the order righty.” Need some right handed pop in the middle of the order.
If you guys want Willingham, what would you be willing to give up?
blanton, maybe rizzoti (who is a white ryan howard apparently and jumped 3 levels in the minors last year) and maybe some A ball prospects
I am praying that Braves keep Diaz. I think he can easily be kept while sending Conrad down to AAA for the year. That would make the Braves bench completely Right-handed, but their line-up is Lefty heavy.
I just don’t want Diaz going to the Phils. He will be a monster there and Manuel and Diaz both live in Lakeland FL, where the Tigers have their ST.
Yeah I knew I was getting some of those wrong. I just couldn’t remember 100% what each of them were.
Since when isn’t he considered a future superstar? I have never heard that before?
Where did you get that last bit of information about Dom Brown? He was a very good hitter against left handed pitchers in the minors, and it’s hard to say he can’t hit big league lefties when the sample size is 13 AB’s. He was only able to get his feet wet in 2010, so I can’t see anyone saying that his potential has diminished. He’s still going to be a premier outfielder.
Just from what I’ve read recently about him the consensus is that his potential has fallen from the superstar they thought he was going to be to a average to slightly above average OFer. My general point was that he probably isn’t ready to fully step into an OF spot and the Phillies would prefer keeping Werth and letting him develop a little more in the minors. I wish I could remember what site I was reading a couple weeks ago that talked about Brown….. Probably a fangraphs chat or something.
I could agree with that last past, about not being able to step into a full time roll right away. That’s why I think resigning Werth is a good idea. In 2011, you keep Ibanez and Werth on the corners, and in 2012, you have a very good left handed hitter in Domonic Brown waiting in the wings to replace Ibanez, and a very good right handed hitter to anchor the middle of the order. Haven’t seen anything about Brown’s value decreasing though.
I think that speculation is that Dom. Brown will likely only be average or above average right now, in comparison to the kinda production they are losing. Over the long haul I don’t think his star has diminished too much, but just that he won’t be a true ‘impact’ hitter from day one. That is why I think the Phillies want another viable OF (also to take over when Ibanez falls off the cliff).
thanks…
By no means am I a Phils fan, but if Francoeur were picked up, maybe Charlie could take his great knowledge of hitting and get Frenchy to get rid of that 3 part golf swing he adopted yrs ago.
As a Braves fan, I would be absolutely delighted if the Phils picked up Franceour.
If Manuel and his hitting coach got him straightened out you might not be so happy about it. As it stands right now I could see where that would make you happy, however he wouldn’t be the answer to break up the lefties in the middle. He’d be lucky to bat 7th or 8th.
Jarimillo ( okay I know I screwed up that spelling ), the best hitting coach in the game tried to straighten him out and his swing fell through again. Restructuring his swing will be an all year thing, practicing every afternoon.
Jarimillo went to the cubs at the start of this season. Hurdle was the guy in Texas. The only way Jeff gets it together is to quit playing golf and goes back to the batting cages.
Although he went to Jaramillo for help in the offseason before the Braves dumped him. Look, until Frenchy learns to stop swinging at everything thrown between the on-deck circles, he’s always going to be a few ABs away from the minors.
If a pitcher is dumb enough to throw a fastball (or a fat breaking pitch) in his wheelhouse, he can hit it a mile. If you get him the least bit off stride or fooled, he’s about as easy an out as I’d be.
When you strike out about four times as often as you walk, and you strike out a lot, then you’re not a very valuable player.
Jarimillo went to the cubs at the start of this season. Hurdle was the guy in Texas. The only way Jeff gets it together is to quit playing golf and goes back to the batting cages.
Lol, no one can help Francouer. Manuel had him figured out for literally 5 at bats.
Lol, no one can help Francouer. Manuel had him figured out for literally 5 at bats.
Why not Francouer? He hits the ball sometimes and his low OBP isn’t on the scoreboard, so it doesn’t matter! …Please?
Yeah Frenchy makes a ton of sense. He’s definitely more of a platoon type than the other two mentioned
Yeah which one of the following don’t belong: Willingham, Francouer, Diaz?? Willingham was among the league leaders in wOBA last season among LF’s (and very good for any power hitter), yeah the injuries are a concern and you won’t get 162 games but he is very good. Nats def. won’t be selling him like a platoon player so I doubt the Phils are a legit match.
I’d think Quentin is available for the right price. Might be more than the Phils are willing to pay though. They’d probably ask for Madson plus a prospect like Sebastion Valle or Tyson Gillies. Quentin is under team control for ’11 and ’12.
Phillies would never trade Madson…..never. He will be extended after this year and prob get a shot to close.
Phillies would never trade Madson…..never. He will be extended after this year and prob get a shot to close.
I just absolutely don’t see Werth getting 7/$120M at all….and if that’s the kind of money it takes to sign Werth, then I hope the Red Sox aren’t in on this. But luckily, knowing conservative Theo, he won’t sign something this ridiculous (hopefully)!
To me, he’s comparable to J.D Drew. His stats are awfully similar to Drew’s (but note that Drew’s career AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS are all better than Werth). And yes, while Werth did have a better season than Drew last year, and has had solid seasons for the past 3 years, that’s exactly where Drew was at when we signed him, isn’t it? Coming off a 20HR/100RBI season and 3 years removed from a 31HR season.
IMO, Werth is worth Drew money, so around 5/$70-75M. Although Drew was somewhat of a disappointment in Boston, at least he was an on-base machine…and if Drew gets 5/$70M, then I have no problem signing Werth to 5/$70 as well. Ideally, I want Werth for 4/$60M, but that’s sounds a bit unrealistic considering the market.
Getting back to my original point, there is no way Werth is worth 7/$120. Given him or Holliday, I’d take Holliday anyday! Despite his poorer defense, his superior offense MORE than makes up for it! If Werth gets 7/$120M, it would sad…very sad. Then maybe Kevin Cash should get 3/$30M too…
We agree that Werth is not worth anywhere near the proposed asking price. But J.D. Drew, is very far from a disappointment. He was pretty consistently within the top 5 AL right fielders in terms of performance over the last 4 years. Though Werth’s numbers are actually a little better than Drew’s, over the last 4 years, look at what Drew averaged: 131 GP, 19HR, 79 R, 66 RBI, .271 BA, .379 OBP, .479 SLG, .858 OPS, +3.3 WAR, .985 FPCT, +3.3 UZR/150. Werth only outdid Drew significantly in the area of HR’s/OPS over the last 4 years.
A very worrisome component of Werth’s performance in 2010 was his situational hitting. He was just .186 w/ RISP, .139 w/ RISP, 2-out, and .217 w/ Man on 3rd, < 2 out. Drew, on the other hand, was .257 w/ RISP, .268 w/ RISP, 2 out, and .333 w/ Man on 3rd, < 2 out. I would have more confidence in Drew to hit behind guys like Pedey, Youk, Beltre, etc., than I would in Werth.
The most worrisome thing about Werth, in my opinion, is the drastic decline in his defense over the last two seasons. We saw this same pattern in Jason Bay, where his UZR/150 fell off the face of the earth. Werth went from a superstar defender to merely average, then to slightly less than average. Unless the guy is coming in to strictly play 1B or DH, I would want to avoid signing someone with a steep defensive decline to a big money, long-term contract.
Well I guess Drew wasn’t that great of a disappointment…but personally, I expected a lot more when we signed him, and I think the same goes for a lot of Sox fans. We wanted a run producer, a 25HR/85-90RBI guy. Instead we got an injury prone guy who averaged 66 RBIs. But looking at Drew’s history, it’s easy to say that he was never going to be the big run producer…he only reached 100RBI once and 90+RBI twice. Don’t forget when he was signed, he was expected to be the number 5 guy, batting behind the big bats of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. He never lived up to that. Anyways, I didn’t go deep into his stats, but just judging from what I see, I just don’t feel that he exceeded the expectations of Sox fans or the Sox front office. Was he worth the contract? Maybe, maybe not. But like I said, if nothing else, we got an on-base machine and solid defensive in right field…oh, and he did hit that grand slam in 07!
I think everyone hopes for great things on a new, LT, big $ F/A signing. We didn’t get “great” out of Drew, and perhaps therein lies the disappointment. But we did get “very good” in most areas (just “OK” on RBI’s). Looking back, it was a good signing and the contract length was right. I’d agree that we should have gotten him at a little less expensive price. But honestly, if the price was say $13MM per year, instead of $15MM, would that make any difference in how you feel about him now? I can’t say it would change my thinking.
You’re right on with the expectation. When Drew signed, I was excited. I was hoping he’d bring a least 1 or 2 seasons of .285-.290/25HR/90RBI. He potentially could’ve reach those numbers had he not gotten injured.
Ten years 6/$75M sealed the for a legend like Pedro. Nowadays, it takes 5/$82.5M to get a guy like Lackey. In no way am I saying Lackey is bad, but he is incomparable to Pedro. I guess I have to get used to the higher price of the FA market now…times have changed.
I just absolutely don’t see Werth getting 7/$120M at all….and if that’s the kind of money it takes to sign Werth, then I hope the Red Sox aren’t in on this. But luckily, knowing conservative Theo, he won’t sign something this ridiculous (hopefully)!
To me, he’s comparable to J.D Drew. His stats are awfully similar to Drew’s (but note that Drew’s career AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS are all better than Werth). And yes, while Werth did have a better season than Drew last year, and has had solid seasons for the past 3 years, that’s exactly where Drew was at when we signed him, isn’t it? Coming off a 20HR/100RBI season and 3 years removed from a 31HR season.
IMO, Werth is worth Drew money, so around 5/$70-75M. Although Drew was somewhat of a disappointment in Boston, at least he was an on-base machine…and if Drew gets 5/$70M, then I have no problem signing Werth to 5/$70 as well. Ideally, I want Werth for 4/$60M, but that’s sounds a bit unrealistic considering the market.
Getting back to my original point, there is no way Werth is worth 7/$120. Given him or Holliday, I’d take Holliday anyday! Despite his poorer defense, his superior offense MORE than makes up for it! If Werth gets 7/$120M, it would sad…very sad. Then maybe Kevin Cash should get 3/$30M too…
There have been a lot of inaccuracies posted in the comments and I feel it is my duty to correct them.
Re: Domonic Brown
There have been no diminishing reports. He still projects as an Andre Dawson player, offensively and defensively. His plate appearances this year are far too small of a sample size, and far too spaced apart to generate a real indication of his major league ability. His minor league numbers do not demonstrate any platoon stats.
Re: Mike Rizzotti
Any comparison to Ryan Howard ends here: they are both Phillies players and play first base. Rizzotti was a 24 year old in High A and Double A and dominated against competition he was much older than. He projects as an all-or-nothing hitter at the highest levels. He demonstrates 65-70 power, but marginal contact skills, despite a high batting average. The closest comparable to Ryan Howard is Jonathan Singleton.
far less ridiculous than the 6 yr $150 mill jeter is asking for
Yeah, I think the realistic concensus is that Werth could get a Jason Bay-type deal. Some on here are suggesting 5 years. I’ll say that’s even dubious, given his age and horrible hitting stats with RISP. My prediction is Werth tops out at 4 years, $52MM. Assuming that Beltre will not re-sign, BoSox will probably offer Werth 3 years, $39MM, with an option for a 4th year. If Beltre were amenable to re-signing, then Werth would not even get an offer from us. We have too many good, young outfield options waiting in the wings to tie up the outfield on expensive F/A’s.