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Mets Unlikely To Pursue Cliff Lee, Others

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The Mets aren’t planning to pursue Cliff Lee this offseason, people familiar with the team tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Johan Santana underwent left shoulder surgery and won’t resume throwing until the spring, but barring the unexpected, Lee won't sign with the Mets. In fact, the team probably won’t seriously consider spending on any elite free agents, whether Omar Minaya or another general manager is in charge.

Martino's sources say the Mets have too much money committed to the current roster to commit to this year's top free agents. The front office may consider trading Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez, but unless the Mets shed an unexpected amount of salary, they won’t be players for the biggest names on the free agent market.

Renteria May Retire After 2010

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Edgar Renteria is just 34, but nagging injuries may push him into retirement at the end of the season, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. The shortstop hopes to return from a sore elbow and help the Giants reach and play in the postseason, but after that he’ll consider retiring.

"My mind is good, but sometimes the body says, 'no,' because I've had a lot of injuries this year," Renteria said.

After undergoing offseason elbow surgery, Renteria has missed time with groin, hamstring and shoulder injuries in 2010. He told Schulman that he’d pursue business opportunities in Florida and his native Colombia if he retires.

Renteria has a .279/.336/.379 batting line in 264 plate appearances this year. That kind of production won’t be enough for the Giants to pick up the $10.5MM option they hold for Renteria in 2011. Instead, they’ll likely buy the five-time All-Star out for $500K. Renteria has over 2200 hits, nearly 300 steals, three Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves in his 15-year career.

Non-Tender Candidate: Edwin Encarnacion

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Edwin Encarnacion will enter his final year of arbitration eligibility this winter, and will be an interesting case for the Toronto Blue Jays. Encarnacion signed a two-year, $7.6MM deal with the Reds before 2009 that covered his first two arbitration seasons, paying him $2MM in '09 and $4.75MM this year. With no contract for 2011 though, the 27-year-old will be a non-tender candidate.

Arguably, the Reds and Jays would have been better off if Encarnacion had gone year to year in arbitration. When he signed his deal, he was coming off a 2008 season in which he'd hit .251/.340/.466 and set a career high in home runs (26). In 669 plate appearances since then, the third baseman has hit .233/.311/.427 with an OPS+ of 95, and was even briefly sent to the minors. The production isn't a huge step down from his '08 numbers, but there are probably better ways for the Jays to spend $4.75MM.

The argument for tendering Encarnacion a contract for next season revolves primarily around his power potential. Even though his OBP and SLG rates have slipped, he's still hitting the ball out of the park, with 23 homers in 504 plate appearances since joining the Jays. Additionally, while "E-5" has continued to make his share of errant throws across the diamond, he's actually enjoying the best defensive season of his career, according to UZR.

The Jays will have some money coming off the books this summer, with Lyle Overbay, John Buck, Scott Downs, and others facing free agency. They'll be able to afford to bring Encarnacion back if they want to, but the bet here is that he won't be tendered a contract. Given Jose Bautista's ability to play either at third base or in the outfield, the team would have some flexibility if they had to replace Encarnacion.

Do you think Encarnacion will be non-tendered this offseason? Click here to vote, and click here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Loux, Uribe, Dipoto, Cubs, Phillies

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Links for Thursday night, following Juan Uribe's two-homer, six-RBI inning….

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge Cantu

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When the Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Rangers before this year's July 31st deadline, it was a prime opportunity for Cantu to turn his season around. Playing for a postseason contender in a hitter-friendly park, the 28-year-old was in a good position to improve his stock with a productive stretch run. It's still possible that Cantu will come up with some timely hits in the playoffs for the Rangers, but so far, his time in Texas has been a major disappointment. In 75 plate appearances, Cantu has hit .206/.270/.265 and has yet to drive in a run.

Prior to the season, Cantu was coming off a two-year stretch in Florida in which he hit .283/.336/.462, averaged over 20 homers per season, and logged playing time at both corner infield positions. His performance earned him a $6MM contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his discouraging 2010 campaign doesn't bode well for his impending free agency.

When teams consider Cantu this winter, one thing working in his favor is his history. This isn't the first time the infielder has had a letdown year following a successful one – in 2006, on the heels of a .286/.311/.497, 28-homer season for the Rays, Cantu hit just .249/.295/.404. His drop-off in OPS that season (.808 to .699) looks awfully similar to his decline from 2009 to 2010 (.788 to .691). Cantu rebounded nicely after signing with the Marlins, and he's still young enough that he could do so again.

Even if a club takes a chance on Cantu's ability to bounce back though, it's hard to imagine him landing more than a short-term deal. The first base market is flush with alternatives, and Cantu has never been a strong defensive third baseman, according to UZR. Cantu's best option may be signing an affordable one-year deal in the hopes that he can rebuild his value and ink a long-term contract next winter, entering his age-30 season.

Stark On Crawford, Werth, Beltre, Torre

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Commissioner Bud Selig told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that he’ll consider expanded instant replay and adding a second Wild Card team. Stark also passes along news on the player-agent industry and rumors from around the league:

  • The MLBPA and MLB have agreed to move up the date by which teams have to tender contracts and offer arbitration to free agents in an attempt to hurry the offseason along. This development could mean that we see fewer unsigned players late in the offseason.
  • The players’ association is working to better regulate interactions between players and agents. For example, agents can’t promise anything of value to players who they don’t represent. No more free trips or cars from rival agents!
  • Players who can go to arbitration or file for free agency will now have to check in with the MLBPA before changing agents.
  • Five of the six executives Stark surveyed named Carl Crawford this year’s best free agent position player (Jayson Werth received one vote).
  • The Yankees are more likely to bid aggressively on Crawford than Werth, but Cliff Lee figures to be their top free agent target.
  • Stark says the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants seem like the best bets to pursue Werth this offseason.
  • Adrian Beltre puzzles Stark’s sources, since he has so much upside, but tends to flash his ability most tantalizingly in contract years.
  • Three baseball people who are all acquainted with Joe Torre say the Dodgers manager would like to manage the Mets next year, but they don’t think it’ll happen.
  • Atlanta GM Frank Wren anticipates that the Braves will be in the market for a veteran reliever again this winter.

Extension Candidate: Shin-Soo Choo

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When Chris Antonetti officially becomes the Indians GM this offseason, he'll probably consider extending Shin-Soo Choo. It would mean working with agent Scott Boras on a multi-year deal and while that may sound intimidating, there's precedent for this kind of contract. Early in 2009, Prince Fielder, another Boras client, signed a two-year deal that bought out a pair of his arbitration seasons.

Choo will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and Boras has hinted that he'd be open to a multi-year deal. Boras clients, Fielder included, aren't generally easy to sign long-term, so the Indians may have trouble locking Choo up beyond his three arbitration seasons. Here's a look ahead to a potential three-year deal between the Indians and their right fielder.

Let's start by estimating what Choo would make if the Indians don't extend him. Three other outfielders (none of them super twos) match up reasonably well with Choo if you compare his stats to what they had accomplished heading into their first arbitration seasons. B.J. Upton ($3MM), Josh Willingham ($2.95MM) and Ryan Ludwick ($3.7MM) all signed deals worth $3MM or so for their first arbitration seasons. 

You could make the case, as Boras may, that Choo has accomplished more than any of those three players at comparable stages in their careers. When you compare Choo to the other three players in home runs, RBI, runs, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and steals, it becomes apparent that the Indians outfielder has a strong case to earn over $3MM next year. Upton beats Choo in steals and runs scored, but loses in every other category; Willingham loses to Choo in every category but home runs and Ludwick loses in every category but home runs and slugging percentage.

Choo's defense is also strong; he has a 7.7 UZR this season and leads all MLB outfielders in assists with 13. He was among the top ten MLB outfielders in assists last year and consistently gets to more balls than most AL right fielders. He doesn't head into arbitration with quite the same platform year that Ludwick did, but Choo will be coming off a second consecutive 20 homer, 20 steal season. A $3.5MM payday in 2011 seems within reach.

If Choo is making $3-4MM next year and is set to receive raises in 2012 and 2013, the Indians would likely have to be prepared to spend considerably to sign Choo for the next three seasons. Antonetti could go year to year, especially if it looks like Choo will have to serve in the South Korean military, but if the Indians do sign their right fielder for the next three years, it probably won't be for less than $20MM.

Nick Markakis, who signed a long-term extension with the Orioles after the 2008 season, then had remarkably similar numbers to the ones Choo has now. Markakis, who also has a strong throwing arm and plays right field, edges Choo in average, runs and homers, but Choo has more RBI and steals and better on base and slugging averages. Markakis' extension could be a model for Cleveland and he will earn $20MM for his three arbitration seasons.

Odds & Ends: Kasten, Pirates, Rolen

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Links for Thursday as we congratulate Jose Bautista and Ichiro Suzuki. Bautista hit his 50th homer of the season in Toronto today and soon afterwards, Ichiro reached the 200-hit plateau for the tenth time in his ten-year career…

  • Nationals president Stan Kasten will not return to the team after the season, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter links). Owner Ted Lerner released a statement saying the organization respects Kasten's decision and "will continue to call upon him for his vast knowledge of the game."
  • Pirates manager John Russell tells MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that the Pirates are closer to respectability than some think. Russell, who faces speculation that he could be dismissed, says he isn't worried about his job security.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports admits that his initial assessment of the Scott Rolen trade was off-base. Like many analysts, Morosi questioned the Reds' decision to give up top prospects (Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke) for a third baseman who appeared to be past his prime.

Mike Adams & Michael Wuertz

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Mike Adams was never going to match the 0.73 ERA he posted for the Padres in 2009, but his 2010 season hasn't been bad at all. In a career high 63 appearances, Adams has a 1.79 ERA and he's striking out more than a batter per inning. If the Padres choose to extend Adams this offseason, they could model a deal after one signed by another right-handed setup man who strikes out tons of batters without the benefit of an upper-nineties fastball.

When Michael Wuertz signed an extension with the A's last offseason, he had similar career numbers to the ones Adams has now. Adams has a lower ERA than Wuertz did and he walks fewer batters, but he hasn't pitched as much as Wuertz had. As the table below shows, Adams is now in a similar position to the one Wuertz found himself in a year ago.

Wuertz & Adams
Wuertz ultimately signed a two-year $5.25MM extension that covered his remaining two arbitration seasons. The Padres could look to buy out Adams' remaining two arbitration seasons for a similar amount this winter. Given the pitchers' remarkably similar rate stats, service time and salaries, a two-year deal worth $5MM or so would be fair value for both sides.

D’backs Notes: Padres, Maddux, Towers

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New Arizona GM Kevin Towers told reporters yesterday that he intends to get to know the existing D'Backs front office within the next couple of weeks. But after decades in the game, he has lots of connections of his own and some of them could end up in Arizona. Here's the latest on which former Padres people Towers may add to the Diamondbacks front office:

  • Towers has targeted Padres scout Bill Bryk and assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr, according to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse.
  • Towers told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he'd like to hire Greg Maddux as the team's next bench coach or pitching coach. "I told Greg two years ago as soon as you want to be on the field please make me the first call," Towers said. The bullpen will be a priority for Towers, who signed Maddux as a free agent twice.
  • MLB.com's Fred Claire says the GM-manager combination of Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson provides the D'Backs with the "detail-oriented, passionate" leadership the organization needs. I'm willing to take Claire's word for it, since he was Gibson's GM in Los Angeles and worked opposite Towers as Dodgers GM early in Towers' tenure with the Padres, from 1995-1998.

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