Analyzing The Tigers’ 2010 Draft
The Tigers didn’t have a first-round pick in this year’s draft, but that didn’t stop them from spending first-round money on three players. David Chadd, the team’s vice president of amateur scouting, says it’s important to be able to spend, but insists that the Tigers' approach isn't about the money.
“I’m just trying to get the best player in the Tigers system,” Chadd said. “I don’t think spending has anything to do with [selecting the best players] at all. It comes down to the players, not the money.”
The Tigers have a reputation for spending big on players who price themsleves off of other teams’ draft boards. For example, Detroit paid up for Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner after other teams shied away from their demands. This year the Tigers spent on prep third baseman Nick Castellanos, who obtained a $3.45MM deal.
Chadd says Castellanos was by far the best player available when the Tigers made their first pick (44th overall) and at the time of the draft, Baseball America agreed. It’s never fair to compare teenagers to big league All-Stars, but Chadd reluctantly admitted that Castellanos reminds him of Evan Longoria.
“I’m very confident in his ability to play third base,” Chadd said of the 18-year-old Florida native. “He can field, he can throw, he can run. So as a scout, when you start talking about tools, he has all five.”
The Tigers also signed Texas reliever Chance Ruffin to a $1.15MM deal and Arkansas left-hander Drew Smyly for $1.1MM. Chadd compares Ruffin to Huston Street, another right-hander who closed for the Longhorns. Smyly doesn’t throw as hard as Ruffin, but Chadd says the lefty's pitching instincts are like Cliff Lee’s.
Castellanos, Ruffin and Smyly would be welcome additions to any farm system, but it took a while for the Tigers to come to terms with the trio, especially Castellanos.
“It came down to the last second,” Chadd said. “It was gut-wrenching and fortunately we got a deal done, but it was tense.”
Teams, players and agents will always have tense moments before the deadline to sign picks, whether or not the deadline falls in mid-August. At this point, it’s too late for players to start their pro careers, so Chadd would be in favor of moving the deadline to sign picks in the next collective bargaining agreement.
“I think that makes the most sense,” he said. “I would be extremely in favor of that … The earlier the deadline, the better from me.”
For example, a mid-July deadline would give teams, players and college coaches certainty earlier on in the summer and would enable players who sign at the last minute to start their pro careers sooner.
Will Brad Hawpe Be Traded?
Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe was placed on waivers yesterday, reported Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That means the window to claim Hawpe will expire Wednesday afternoon at the latest. The Rockies "want to move" Hawpe, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.
The first question is whether Hawpe will be claimed by one of the other 29 clubs. His playing time has dwindled in recent months, and his .252/.341/.430 line is his worst since 2005. Hawpe has consistently posted poor UZR defensive numbers in right field. This year, for the first time, he's played a few games at first base.
Hawpe has shown enough offense over the past several seasons that he would still appeal to several contenders. The problem is that a claim could compel the Rockies to dump his contract on another team. That club would pay the prorated portion of his $7.5MM salary (currently $1.96MM) plus a potential $500K buyout of his $10.15MM club option for '11 (unless Hawpe voids it, which seems unlikely).
The White Sox were linked to Hawpe in July, and they came up empty looking for a bat last month. The Padres and Braves made additions, so a National League claim seems unlikely. The White Sox would have first crack in the AL, before the Twins, Red Sox, Yankees, or Rays. The Red Sox and Rays may at least consider Hawpe, but I suspect he'll make it through waivers unclaimed. That'd open up trade possibilties for the Rockies, who probably won't get draft pick compensation for the Type A free agent. It'd only be possible if they declined Hawpe's option and then offered arbitration, an unlikely scenario.
Barret Loux To Be Granted Free Agency
Press release from the Diamondbacks and unsigned draft pick Barret Loux:
"We have reached an agreement regarding Barret Loux’s status that is mutually beneficial to the parties. Today Commissioner Selig has announced that Loux will become a free agent on September 1. As such, he will be free to sign with any Major League Club at that time. In addition, the Arizona Diamondbacks will receive a Supplemental Selection in the 2011 First-Year Player Draft. The agreement also provides an opportunity for the Commissioner’s Office and the Players Association globally to the address the issues that can arise from questions concerning a drafted player’s health. Given the private nature of the underlying disagreement here, neither party will be making any further public comments about this situation."
Chosen sixth overall by the D'Backs, Loux's July physical revealed a labrum tear and elbow issues according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan. The D'Backs backed out of a $2MM agreement, as was their right, and will receive the seventh overall pick as compensation in 2011. With the money freed up the Diamondbacks went over slot yesterday to sign draft picks such as Ty Linton ($1.25MM), Tyler Green ($750K), and Blake Perry ($500K).
Once Loux reaches free agency, Yahoo's Kendall Rogers wouldn't be surprised to see the White Sox pursue him (Twitter link). The Astros will look into signing Loux, GM Ed Wade told Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle. Free agency is a very positive outcome for Loux, as one MLBTR commenter explains here.
Market For Craig Counsell
Brewers infielder Craig Counsell recently cleared waivers, suggesting no team was willing to take on the prorated portion of his $2.3MM salary (currently $600K). Counsell can now be traded to any team, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Brewers seek "a legit return." Rosenthal notes that the Brewers received Chris Dickerson for Jim Edmonds, though I'll point out that Edmonds was having a stronger season at a lower salary and did get claimed on waivers by multiple clubs. In terms of the Counsell market, Rosenthal says the Cardinals inquired and backed off while the Braves have yet to inquire.
Counsell, 40 in a few days, is hitting .246/.317/.305 in 188 plate appearances this season. He's mostly played on the left side of the infield this year, but has plenty of career experience at second base. Counsell has had a disappointing season, though it seems to amount to a dip in playing time and batting average. He's not a clear upgrade for a contender, so he could stay put unless the asking price drops in the 15 days leading up to the waiver trade deadline.
Non-Tender Candidate: J.J. Hardy
My listing of Twins shortstop J.J. Hardy yesterday as a non-tender candidate inspired much debate in our comments section. Let's dig deeper into the situation.
In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Hardy's 1.8 this year ranks fifth in the American League on the FanGraphs leaderboard. Hardy's done this in only 70 games, as he's missed time due to a bruised wrist. His bat his been about league average for AL shortstops, while much of his value is derived from what UZR/150 suggests is well above-average defense. Hardy has been strong in UZR every year of his career, not just the 580 innings in 2010.
However, I am guessing the Twins will not look closely at WAR when making the decision on whether to tender Hardy a 2011 contract in December. They'll first need to determine how much Hardy will seek or earn for next year, his final season before free agency. It's promising that Twins only needed to give Hardy a $450K raise coming off a disappointing 2009 season. They might be able to sign him for less than $6MM one last time. Hardy can't be too aggressive in his salary demands, as his agent Mike Seal surely knows that UZR numbers probably won't help his client in front of an arbitration panel and weak offensive counting stats would hurt him.
The Twins probably haven't decided yet whether Hardy is worth $6MM or so to them in 2011. They'll be considering alternatives. Trevor Plouffe is an internal option, though his work in a second Triple A stint doesn't stand out. Alexi Casilla will be around next year as well. The free agent market is weak, with Juan Uribe one of the better options the Twins can consider. The trade market could offer Stephen Drew, Jamey Carroll, Jack Wilson, or even a second round with Jason Bartlett.
With those thoughts, it's time for you to weigh in. Click here to vote on whether Hardy will be non-tendered, and here to see the results of the poll.
Giants Trying To Block Cards, Braves From Third Basemen?
Some GMs have the perception the Giants are trying to block the Cardinals and Braves from acquiring a third baseman through a waiver trade, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The team with the worse record gets first crack at a player, so at the moment the Giants can't stop a player from getting to the Cardinals. They can currently thwart the Padres, Reds, Phillies, and Braves.
Three players with the ability to play third base have already gotten through waivers unclaimed: Geoff Blum, Craig Counsell, and Edwin Encarnacion. We haven't heard about the status of Chone Figgins, Adam Kennedy, Jamey Carroll, Jeff Keppinger, Ty Wigginton, Wilson Betemit, Mark Reynolds, Melvin Mora, Jhonny Peralta, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Wes Helms, Andy LaRoche, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Jose Lopez, or Pedro Feliz yet. Brandon Inge is expected to hit the waiver wire this week, wrote Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch yesterday. The Twins could theoretically claim Inge before he gets to the Cards, but they may be satisfied with Danny Valencia at the hot corner.
Pedro Feliciano, Mets Waiting On Contract Talks
Lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano and the Mets have agreed to wait until after the season to hold contract talks, reports ESPN's Adam Rubin. Feliciano will be eligible for free agency for the first time.
Feliciano, 34 in a few days, has been worked hard in his Mets career. This year he's got a 3.05 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9 with only one home run allowed in 44.3 innings. For the third straight year, he's leading MLB in appearances.
FanGraphs splits are the best way to judge Feliciano's work against lefties and righties. You can see he's been very strong (xFIP of 3.06 or better) against lefties the last few years but middling or worse against righties (xFIP of at least 4.49 each year). Despite Feliciano's protestations, it's more than just groundballs getting through against righties. He's allowing too many walks and often too many home runs against them.
Feliciano profiles as a Type B free agent in our latest Elias projections, and he's earning $2.9MM this year. The Mets would be wise to offer arbitration, but a multiyear deal would be risky.
Draft Pick Signings
Today's draft pick signing deadline passed at 11pm central time. This post contains notable signings outside of the first round, with the latest up top.
- The Padres signed sixth-rounder John Barbato for $1.4MM, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter).
- The Blue Jays signed fourth-rounder Sam Dyson for $600K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter).
- The Tigers signed second-rounder Drew Smyly for $1.1MM, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo (on Twitter).
- The D'Backs signed 14th-rounder Ty Linton for $1.25MM, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.
- The A's signed second-rounder Yordy Cabrera for $1.25MM, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (via Twitter). The team has since confirmed the deal, but not its value.
- The Pirates have signed second-rounder Stetson Allie, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The 19-year-old, who plays third and pitches, had committed to the University of North Carolina. He gets a $2.25MM bonus, according to Hoynes (on Twitter).
- The D'Backs signed eighth-rounder Tyler Green for $750K, according to Aaron Fitt of Baseball America. The prep righty can hit 95 mph with his fastball.
- The Reds signed sixth-rounder Drew Cisco for $975K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America.
- The Cardinals signed second-round right-hander Jordan Swagerty for $600-650K, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).
- The Giants signed second-rounder Jarrett Parker for $700K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The 21-year-old outfielder set multiple single-season records at Virginia last year.
- The Mariners signed second-rounder Marcus Littlewood for $900K, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter). Here's Law's scouting report on the prep shortstop.
- The D'Backs agreed to sign sixth-round right-hander Blake Perry for $500K, according to Aaron Fitt of Baseball America.
- The Nationals agreed to sign 12th-round left-hander Robbie Ray for $799K, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
- The Red Sox will sign Garin Cecchini, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). The fourth-round pick was looking for about $1.35MM and Jim Callis of Baseball America reports (on Twitter) that he'll get $1.31MM.
- Eighth-rounder Alex Lavisky agreed to terms with the Indians on a $1MM bonus, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The prep catcher is "a good athlete with arm strength," according to Baseball America.
- The Red Sox signed second-rounder Brandon Workman for $800K, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- The Red Sox agreed to sign third-rounder Sean Coyle, a 5'8" shortstop, for $1.3MM, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. That's more than $1MM more than MLB recommends for the 110 slot.
- The Dodgers signed 11th-rounder Joc Pederson, a prep outfielder, for $600K according to Baseball America's Jim Callis. That quadruples MLB's recommended maximum. BA ranked Pederson #154 in their draft preview.
- The Rangers signed fifth-rounder Justin Grimm, a righty out of Georgia, for $825K plus incentives ($677K over slot), reports Baseball America's Aaron Fitt. BA ranked Grimm at #109 in their draft preiew.
- The Indians signed fourth-round pick Kyle Blair for $580K ($334K over slot), reports Baseball America's Jim Callis. Blair is a righty drafted out of the University of San Diego; BA ranked him 84th overall in their draft preview.
- The Royals signed second-round pick Brett Eibner and fifth-rounder Jason Adam, according to a press release. Baseball America's Jim Callis tweets that Eibner gets $1.25MM (almost $600K over slot), while Adam gets $800K ($629K over slot). Eibner is a center fielder and pitcher out of the University of Arkansas, and Adam is a righty drafted out of high school. Baseball America rated Eibner the 23rd-best player in the draft, calling him the "best two-way prospect" in the class. The Royals instead plan to use him as a center fielder.
Pirates Sign Jameson Taillon
12:03am: Taillon's bonus is worth $6.5MM, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter).
9:14pm: Taillon and the Pirates agreed on a deal worth slightly more than $5MM, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
7:52pm: The Pirates signed second-overall pick Jameson Taillon, the pitcher's father told to Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The tall Texas right-hander has drawn comparisons to other power pitchers such as Roger Clemens and Josh Beckett. Back in May, MLBTR's Mike Axisa profiled Taillon in detail.
The specifics on Taillon's deal aren't yet known, but MLB recommended a $3.25MM bonus for the second overall pick last year. The Mariners, who chose second overall in 2009, signed Dustin Ackley to a $6MM bonus and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Pirates pay Taillon considerably more than slot, too. They already appear to have signed second-rounder Stetson Allie.
With less than three hours remaining between now and the deadline to sign picks, 13 first-rounders have yet to sign.
Orioles Sign Manny Machado
11:43pm: The Orioles, who announced the deal via press release, agreed to a $5.25MM deal with Machado, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link).
11:06pm: The Orioles agreed to sign third-overall pick Manny Machado, according to Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio (Twitter link). The 18-year-old shortstop is from Miami, so some have compared him to one of the best draft picks in MLB history: Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod's agent, Scott Boras, also represents Machado (and a number of top picks in this year's draft). He wasn't an easy player to sign but, Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan said after the draft that Machado has the talent to be an impact major leaguer.
“He’s going to automatically be one of the premier prospects in the organization,” Jordan said.
Last year, MLB recommended a $2.925MM bonus for the third-overall pick. Click here for the complete list of 2010 first-rounders to sign.