Three Moves That Could Shape The AL Central

The AL Central race tends to last a while. We have seen extra games played to determine the divisional champ each of the past two seasons. This year, the race is as close as ever. The White Sox lead the Tigers by half a game and the Twins by 3.5 games. One or two major trades could shape the pennant race, so let's consider one deal that each contender could realistically make to gain some traction and win the Central:

  • The White Sox could acquire Adam Dunn – This is nothing new, since the White Sox realize Dunn would help them. He has 22 homers and a .959 OPS; current DH Mark Kotsay has six homers and a .709 OPS. Nats GM Mike Rizzo has made it clear that Dunn would cost a lot in terms of prospects, partly because Dunn projects to be a Type A free agent (which means his team can obtain picks in the 2011 draft by offering arbitration). One positive for the White Sox: Dunn may be losing interest in signing an extension that would keep him in D.C.
  • The Tigers could acquire Dan Haren – The back of the Tigers' rotation is thin. Haren's 4.36 ERA isn't astounding, but his strikeout and walk numbers are strong (8.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). It doesn't take a sabermetrician to notice that batters are hitting 42 points higher than usual against Haren, so he may have been unlucky so far this year. He's not cheap, though. About $3.6MM remains on his contract this season and nearly $33MM remains overall. The Tigers won't be paying Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson eight-figure salaries next season, so they may be able to absorb the hit. 
  • The Tigers could consider shortstops (like Haren's teammate Stephen Drew), but given Ramon Santiago's strong play and the state of the team's rotation, the Tigers' biggest need may be on the mound.
  • The Twins could acquire Ted Lilly – Like the Tigers, the Twins could use pitching. Unlike the Tigers, they have already committed $72MM to next year's team and would have difficulty taking on Haren's contract. Ted Lilly, who makes $12MM this season before becoming a free agent, would be a major upgrade over Nick Blackburn. Lilly has a 4.08 ERA and 6.0 K/9, while Blackburn has a 6.40 ERA with just 3.2 K/9. Lilly projects to be a Type A free agent after the season, so the Twins could obtain draft picks in 2011 if they acquire him now. Like Dunn and Haren, he would be difficult to obtain. 

The Path From Indy Ball To The Majors

Two Red Sox players are joking about their respective agents.

“Mine takes me out for dinner,” one says. “With my own money!”

“At least he buys you champagne,” another responds, gesturing towards an expensive bottle in his teammate’s locker.

Their conversation continues, and before long it turns to Daniel Nava, who is sitting nearby. You’ve heard of him by now. He’s the 27-year-old rookie who hit a grand slam on his first major league swing. The former indy leaguer who’s now hitting .300 at the highest level. Nava takes some good-natured ribbing from his teammates, because he doesn’t even have an agent. When the Red Sox signed him for $1 in 2008, he simply didn’t need one.

“There really wasn’t much to negotiate,” Nava told MLBTR. “It was just 'here – here’s the standard protocol for what you sign – here’s the contract.' So I was in no position to negotiate anything anyways … I just took what was given to me.”

Not a whole lot of leverage.

“Zero leverage,” Nava said. “I’m sure they just would have said ‘well, we can grab someone else.’”

Nava didn’t have an agent when the Red Sox purchased his contract from the Golden Baseball League’s Chico Outlaws, but he and other independent leaguers do have some support. Golden League commissioner Kevin Outcalt actively tries to show off his league’s best players to MLB organizations. Sometimes that means making a sales pitch.

“We’ll take our player of the week or player of the month and almost do a mini-Heisman campaign on them where we’re sending out a bio on them, what they’ve done lately, what have they done in the past,” Outcalt said. “I’ll blast that out to all of the [major league] farm directors.”

If MLB teams like what they see, they can call the Golden League and make a deal. But even players who do join big league organizations have to work their way through the minors, so Nava’s two-year ascent from complete obscurity to minor celebrity stands out.

“That’s a New York rise,” Outcalt said. “But given the kind of experience someone like him gained in independent ball, he knew he had the ability to hit pitchers at almost any level and he was able to take that and work his way up very quickly.”

Nava has hit at every level, never posting an OPS below .856 for any of his teams, including the Red Sox. He says he is still adapting to the speed of the game, but that’s just part of the adjustment process.

“Your first time going on a road trip or a homestand it’s all new and once you’ve done it once or twice it’s like ‘OK that’s how it works,’” Nava said. “Just basic stuff like that that you’ve done for years in the minors, all of a sudden it’s all new up here.”

Every time a player like Nava graduates to a major league organization, an independent team loses one of its top players. But that doesn't bother Golden League officials. Outcalt compares the league to a trampoline that helps independent leaguers find jobs in MLB organizations. Every time the league bounces a player back into affiliated baseball, it becomes a more appealing destination for others looking to prolong their pro careers.

Outcalt generally fields three types of calls from MLB teams. Sometimes, clubs will ask about a specific player, like Nava. In that case, the league works out an agreement with an MLB organization for a standard purchase price. These deals can be in place within an hour.

Sometimes, teams are looking for a specific type of player, like someone who has caught at Triple A or a left-handed reliever. And sometimes MLB executives inquire about the league’s best players, regardless of position. Outcalt estimates that 20 or more players make the leap from the Golden League to affiliated baseball each season, most recently Gilbert De La Vara.

Not all teams comb through independent leagues aggressively. The Golden League, for example, hears regularly from the Tigers, Brewers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers. 

“Some other teams you never hear from,” Outcalt said.

Tonight, scouts from many organizations gathered to search for the next Daniel Nava, when the Golden League’s All-Stars faced off against the Northern League’s top players in Tucson. The All-Star Game is an informal filter for scouts, who regularly sign players soon after the contest.

Back in April of 2009, when Nava was still playing for the Salem Red Sox, another Golden League alum was emerging as the poster boy for former independent leaguers. Scott Richmond had pitched his way from the Edmonton Cracker-Cats to the Toronto Blue Jays and become the AL Rookie of the Month.

Richmond’s story shows that scouts and front office types are willing to listen when independent leagues come calling. Rob Ducey, a 13-year MLB veteran who now scouts for the Rays, was scouting for the Blue Jays in 2007 when two of his former teammates recommended that Ducey consider Richmond. The right-hander was pitching well and Ducey thought he could produce in affiliated ball.

“You know what, I kind of expected him to pitch well,” Ducey recalled. “He wasn’t a spring chicken. It wasn’t like he was 20 years old and immature. He had a lot of weapons as far as pitches and he threw strikes.”

Richmond, now 30, pitched to a 3.69 ERA in the first half last year, striking out 71 and walking just 30. He has struggled since, but last year's hot start helps explain why teams scout independent leagues: talent can turn up in unexpected places. Ducey can think of another reason.

“Some players, when they get back to professional baseball, not only is their attitude a whole lot better, but they work a whole lot harder because they know what’s on the other side of the fence,” Ducey said.

Richmond encountered shoulder problems in the second half of 2009 and his ERA ballooned to 5.52. He’s now pitching in the minor leagues, but his major league future is largely uncertain. Like Richmond, Nava could find himself in the minors once again. In fact, that reality helps motivate him.

“You’re never going to sit there and say you’ve got it all figured out,” Nava said. “And if you do, usually something’s coming the other way so you don’t have it all figured out.” 

Nava may not have enough job security to seek out an agent, but he sure doesn’t mind playing baseball for a living, whether it’s in front of Fenway Park's Green Monster or back in Chico, California.

“There’s plenty of time to get a nine to five job,” he said. “So you may as well enjoy the chance to do something you love.”

Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Marlins, Berry, Carroll, Pujols

Links for Wednesday, on an eerily quiet day for baseball fans…

Red Sox May Still Covet Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez was supposed to be the biggest trade chip at the 2010 deadline, but the 51-37 Padres aren’t about to sell. That doesn’t mean Boston’s interest in the Padres slugger has faded, however. A baseball source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that the Red Sox still like Gonzalez.

"If they could get Gonzalez [before next season], that would solve everything," the WEEI source said. "And I think that's their Plan A. But the way things are going that might be pie in the sky type of thinking."

Gonzalez is hitting .301/.397/.533 and no Padres regular has an OPS within 170 points of that, so A-Gon isn't going anywhere yet. The Padres can keep the 28-year-old for $5.5MM next year, before he hits free agency. For now, Gonzalez says he doesn’t want to go anywhere.

"It's just a relief not to be in trade rumors and be in first place, more than anything,” Gonzalez said.

The Red Sox have a club option of their own coming up. Bradford says it “seems very unlikely” that Boston will pick up David Ortiz’s $12.5MM option for 2011 and notes that the sides haven’t made major progress on contract talks about an alternate deal. Big Papi appears to want a multi-year contract and believes he’ll stay in Boston.

Yunel Escobar-Alex Gonzalez Trade Reactions

The Braves sent Yunel Escobar north for a veteran who happens to lead MLB shortstops in home runs (Alex Gonzalez). It's a win-now move for Atlanta, though they also acquire a pair of intriguing prospects in the process. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays acquire a cheap, young shortstop who can play great defense and has a career OBP of .368. So does that make today's trade a win-win? Here's what the baseball writers are saying:

  • Matt Eddy and Nathan Rode of Baseball America break down the prospects involved and explain that Tim Collins could become a "useful reliever" and Tyler Pastornicky could become a sound defender who hits at the top of the order. 
  • Many of Escobar's teammates wanted to see him traded, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney says this is a "tremendous trade for the Braves." GM Frank Wren told Olney that the Braves wouldn't have made the deal were it not for Gonzalez's affordable 2011 option (Twitter links).
  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports says Escobar was "not an Atlanta Braves type of player." Gonzalez is having a strong season and should fit in, so Knobler says he is an Atlanta Braves type of player, even if he's not a long-term solution at short.
  • Mychael Urban of CSN Bay Area believes the Giants could have used Escobar (Twitter link). I wonder how many Tigers fans are thinking the same thing about their team.
  • The Blue Jays took a risk and acquired Escobar now, because top players are rarely available when they're playing at their best, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos explained to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (Twitter links).
  • Earlier in the season, an Atlanta Brave told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that Braves manager Bobby Cox hates Yunel Escobar because of perceived lack of hustle.
  • Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs says the deal "doesn’t seem nearly as bad for the Braves as it did at first glance," though the Blue Jays still won.
  • R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs believes the trade "has to be looked upon as a pretty worthwhile risk for the Jays."
  • Bryan Smith of FanGraphs says Jo-Jo Reyes doesn't mean much to the Braves, since they have so much pitching depth. Smith also suggests Tyler Pastornicky had considerable appeal for the Braves, since he runs and has raised his walk rate.

Poll: The Braves-Blue Jays Trade

The Braves and Blue Jays swapped shortstops today and it's time for you to weigh in. We've heard from the experts, but what do you think? The Blue Jays sold high on Alex Gonzalez for a player with star potential. Does that make them winners? The Braves acquired the player who leads MLB shortstops in homers for someone who has had his ups and downs in Atlanta. Does that make them winners? Maybe one of the minor leaguers will be the difference-maker. Let's see what you think:

Considering the short-term and the long-term, which team won the Alex GonzalezYunel Escobar swap?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Red Sox Issues, Present And Future

A series of articles from WEEI's Alex Speier and Rob Bradford dig into pressing Red Sox issues…

  • Speier looks at Boston's current tricky situation in regard to the trade deadline.  Available star players are harder to come by than last year.  The return dates of many injured Sox are unknown.  Plus the Red Sox might not have the right trade chips to make a deal or the payroll space to accomodate a decent-sized salary.
  • Bradford examines the future.  Out of Victor Martinez, Adrian Beltre, and David Ortiz, who returns for 2011?  Kevin Youkilis' future position may depend on which players Boston brings back for 2011.
  • Speier talked to David DeJesus' former teammate John Buck, who feels the underrated outfielder would be a great fit for a contender.  It'd be DeJesus' first taste of a pennant race.

White Sox Sign Jeremy Reed

The White Sox signed outfielder Jeremy Reed to a minor league deal yesterday, according to the team's transactions page.  Reed has been assigned to the Triple A Charlotte Knights.

Reed, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays in January.  He elected free agency after being outrighted earlier this month.  Reed has come full circle since being ranked the 25th-best prospect in baseball as a member of the Knights heading into the 2004 season.  He was traded to the Mariners in June of that year as the centerpiece in the Freddy Garcia deal.  Reed hasn't hit as expected in his big league career, but he has been able to handle center field.

Blue Jays Acquire Yunel Escobar

The Blue Jays acquired shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes from the Braves for shortstop Alex Gonzalez and minor leaguers Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky, according to a team press release.  The Jays designated Ronald Uviedo for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

The move comes as a big surprise, as Escobar was perhaps one of the more valuable commodities in the game when the 2009 season concluded.  Just a few days ago, MLB.com's Mark Bowman wrote that the Braves "simply aren't willing to sell low on a guy who they still view as the game's top defensive shortstop."  Escobar was worth over four wins last year, but his power has disappeared in 301 plate appearances this year.  Escobar will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season, so he'll be under the Jays' control through 2013.  Escobar's attitude was a likely factor in the deal; Bowman wrote in June that "there's no doubt that Escobar's flamboyant approach to the game has continued to infuriate some members of the Braves organization."  Back in February, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez went more in-depth on the attitude angle.

Gonzalez will replace Escobar as the Braves' starting shortstop as they enter the second half with a four game lead in the NL East.  He doesn't get on base, but he's already hit 17 home runs on the season and continues to play strong defense.  Gonzalez is owed another $1.23MM this year and has a $2.5MM club option for 2011.  Braves GM Frank Wren told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "This trade improves our club for the second half of the season."

Reyes, a 25-year-old southpaw, has spent most of the season at Triple A.  His strikeout and walk rates are strong in his fourth stint at the level, but he's had problems with home runs and hits.  Baseball America regarded Reyes as the Braves' eighth-best prospect heading into the 2007 season, calling him a "thick-bodied lefthander who does a good job of keeping hitters off balance."  He's dealt with injuries, including Tommy John surgery in '04.

Collins, a 20-year-old lefty, was ranked 19th among Blue Jays prospects by Baseball America heading into this season.  The 5'7" southpaw "gets outs with a solid fastball that tops out at 93 mph and a true 12-to-6 curveball that he spins really well."  Working in relief, Collins has a 15.3 K/9 in 43 Double A innings this year.  Pastornicky, a 20-year-old shortstop, was ranked 17th.  He's described as a player who "doesn't have flashy tools but gets the most out of what he has."  In the best case, he'll become a line drive top of the order hitter with solid defense, indicates BA.  As for Uviedo, the Jays had acquired him from the Pirates in the June Dana Eveland deal.  BA described him as rail-thin and homer-prone heading into the '09 season, but praised his fastball and slider.

My take: this is certainly a win-now move for the Braves, who are confident Gonzalez will provide more over the next few months than Escobar would have.  The Blue Jays, meanwhile, managed the rare feat of acquiring three-plus years of a shortstop with star potential without giving up much.