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2011 Amateur Draft

Draft Links: Royals, Pirates, Phillies

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Here's the latest as we close in on Monday's First-Year Player Draft …

  • The Royals will be tempted to take prep outfielder Bubba Starling from Kansas with the No. 5 overall pick, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. The Royals are thought to covet a polished pitcher so that he can help the big league team sooner than later, according to Dodd, but they've smarted over missing out on local products Albert Pujols and Logan Morrison in the recent past, and GM Dayton Moore has discussed the importance of snatching up local talent.
  • The Pirates' indecision about which pricey college player to take select at No. 1 overall — Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are represented by Scott Boras, while Danny Hultzen is reportedly seeking $13MM — has some baseball people wondering whether they'll take a prep player like Starling or Dylan Bundy in order to preserve their draft budget and overpay for tough-to-sign players at later picks, writes Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. Also within that piece, Rogers examines some of the crucial selections of the past 10 drafts.
  • The Phillies are charged with restocking their farm despite making their first pick at No. 39, writes Bob Brookover of Philly.com. The fact that many of the Phils' core players are homegrown and others were acquired with prospects is a testament to the scouting and development departments, according to Brookover.
  • The Royals could also select UConn right-hander Matt Barnes with the fifth overall pick, writes Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Within that piece, Goff explains Barners' unforeseen ascent to likely top-10 selection.
  • The Astros were once interested in Texas A&M righty John Stilson at No. 11, according to Goff, but the hurler has generally slipped out of first-round consideration due to a shoulder injury. As a result, Stilson is now a deep sleeper, writes Goff.
  • Jonathan May of MLB.com published his latest mock draft today, with Cole, Rendon and Hultzen going at Nos. 1, 2 and 3 to the Pirates, Mariners and D'Backs, respectively.
  • Four of six industry experts polled said they prefer Cole to Trevor Bauer of the two UCLA Bruins, but it's closer than you think, writes Tom Krasovic.

Astros Notes: Reed, Minors, Hall

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A few items of note on the club formerly known as the Colt .45s as Albert Pujols smacks a walkoff homer, his second jack of the day:

  • The Astros continue to deny any rumors that they've been trying to work out a pre-draft deal with Stanford pitcher Chris Reed with the intent of selecting him at No. 11 overall, tweets Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Goff predicts the Astros will take Archie Bradley (Twitter link), and ESPN.com's Keith Law writes in his latest mock draft that they'll take prep shortstop Francisco Lindor or Bradley if he's still available.
  • The Astros have improved their farm system under GM Ed Wade and his stable of area scouts, according to Goff. Wade's first draft as Astros GM was in 2008, when Houston selected Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles, both of whom have reached the bigs.
  • In contrast to their relative improvements in drafting and developing minor league players, Wade admitted that releasing Bill Hall represented a failure in judgment, writes Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.

Pirates Will Take Gerrit Cole First Overall

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Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hears that the Pirates will select UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick in Monday's amateur draft (subs. req'd). ESPN's Buster Olney says (on Twitter) that other teams anticipate the Mariners will select a position player with the second overall pick. Based on recent rumors, Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon would seem likely.

A few weeks ago we heard that Pittsburgh was considering a handful of players for that top pick, but they're going with Cole because he represents their best chance to land truly elite starting pitching, as Kovacevic notes. Tim Dierkes introduced us to Cole earlier this week, a hard-throwing righty that spurned the Yankees as the 28th overall pick out of high school in 2008. Ben Nicholson-Smith spoke to Cole back in March.

This is the fourth time the Pirates have held the first overall pick. They selected college shortstop Jeff King in 1986, and college righties Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington in 1996 and 2002, respectively.

Hart Talks Success Late In Draft

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When John Hart says high draft picks are generally the ones who become stars, he's speaking from experience. The longtime Indians and Rangers GM saw first rounders like Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia develop into some of the best players in the game. Now a senior Rangers advisor and MLB Network analyst, Hart says truly successful drafts will also feature late-round gems.

“You have to have success after the first day of the draft,” he said, pointing out that he and the Rangers staff selected Ian Kinsler in the 17th round of the 2003 draft. “When everyone’s reconnects [after day one] you say ‘hey boys, there’s a lot of big leaguers out there. Let’s go get big leaguers.’” 

Kinsler

Players like Richie Sexson (24th round, 1993), John McDonald (12th round, 1996) and David Riske (56th round, 1996) became 'finishing touches' for the Indians under Hart. Those drafted earlier on attracted more attention, but Hart soon learned that you can’t just survive on your first and second rounders.

Most general managers don’t have the time to see hundreds upon hundreds of players, as an amateur scouting director would, so a GM is most heavily involved early on in the draft. Hart, who would typically see six to ten amateurs in anticipation of each draft, would step back after a few rounds, make notes and ‘scout his scouts.’  It helped fill the time between picks, which can be particularly excruciating if a team is hoping a specific player falls to them.

“If you’ve got one guy that’s clearly your front guy and you’ve got three picks to get there. It is a long time waiting to get that guy,” Hart told MLBTR this week. “And when that club calls the name [of another player], there’s a lot of excitement in the room – guys are very happy.” 

The Rangers had a college right-hander in mind when they held the 12th overall pick five years ago, Hart's first season in his current role. It appeared that they would get their man when, with the tenth overall pick, Tim Lincecum became property of the San Francisco Giants. 

“We were fired up and ready to go and your heart gets broken,” Hart said, reflecting on the Rangers’ near miss in 2006. “It really does. There’s just an empty feeling in the room when you lose your guy.” 

Especially since the player Texas selected instead, left-hander Kasey Kiker, has yet to throw a Major League pitch and currently has a 6.75 ERA in Class A. One way for GMs to make sure that they don’t telegraph their intentions is to stay away from the ballpark when a top target is playing. 

“Once a GM comes into a ballpark, that word starts spreading and the next thing you know, you can run guys up a board,” Hart said.

GMs generally stand out more than scouting directors, especially at a high school or college game. Though it’s the scouting directors, cross-checkers and area scouts who do most of the legwork, general managers are forever linked to the players their front office selects. 

“It’s funny,” Hart said, “I was talking to [current Rays executive and longtime Astros GM] Gerry Hunsicker today and we were both kind of laughing that a lot of times you get credit for players that your scouting director picked and sometimes you get trashed because of guys that your scouting director picked. But ultimately it does come down to you.” 

Photo of Kinsler courtesy Icon SMI. John Hart will be part of MLB Network’s coverage of the 2011 MLB first-year player draft on Monday, June 6th at 6pm CDT.

Draft Notes: Starling, Phillies, Bauer, Bradley

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Peter Gammons of MLB Network runs through some of the most intriguing 'what-ifs' in the history of the draft at MLB.com. Here are more draft links, as we wonder what would have happened if the White Sox had drafted Barry Bonds in 1985…

  • Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor's workout with the Diamondbacks was scheduled for today, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The Monteverde (Fla.) Academy product is a candidate for their pick at No. 7.
  • Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter) has received more pre-draft bonus demand letters.  Wyoming's Brandon Nimmo is seeking $3MM, first baseman Dan Vogelbach wants $1.65MM, and Pennsylvania outfielder Derek Fisher is eyeing a bonus of $2.25MM.
  • Chris Cox of MLB.com profiled University of South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who is unsure of where he'll land after suffering a wrist injury.  Bradley, who has garnered comparisons to Jim Edmonds, will likely wind up being selected in the supplemental round.
  • Right now there's not a whole lot of clarity in the top 15 of the draft, writes Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required).  Law has Anthony Rendon pegged to go No. 2 to the Mariners though he believes that outfielder Bubba Starling could wind up going in that spot also.
  • More from Law (via Twitter) as he hears that the White Sox are potentially looking at Stanford left-hander Chris Reed as a sandwich round pick.
  • Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever suggested to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that the Phils will be looking for offense this year. "I always love to get bats, but that's kind of what we're looking at," Wolever said.
  • Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports shows that UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer is talented, feisty and unorthodox. Could he be the next Tim Lincecum? One American League scout says he "could be as good as [Lincecum] or better." 
  • As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explains, high school right-hander Archie Bradley faces a difficult decision: start at quarterback for the football-crazed University of Oklahoma or let his 100 mph fastball carry him to a seven-figure bonus and a baseball career. It sounds as though the affable Bradley will sign with an MLB team if he's offered enough money, since baseball is his first love.
  • Check out Tim Dierkes’ writeup about Bradley from last month.
  • Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen has pitched his way up teams' draft boards and remains a candidate to go first overall to the Pirates, Jonathan Mayo writes at MLB.com.

The Phillies’ Approach To The 2011 Draft

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The Phillies haven’t had the first overall pick in the amateur draft since 1998, when they selected Pat Burrell. This year, their first pick will be number 39 overall, but Phillies amateur scouting director Marti Wolever says it’s a good problem to have, since it means the Major League team has played well. Just don’t expect the Phillies to draft with an eye on their 2011 win total. 

“You have to look down the road and I don’t think you can look for a quick fix necessarily,” Wolever said on a conference call with reporters. “Often if you look back at those [picks] they don’t work out the way you planned them to work out.”

The Phillies are eyeing catchers and middle infielders, though they will be ready to adjust since they realize many of their top targets may already have been selected by the time they make their first pick. It’s “one of the deeper drafts" in recent memory for position players, so Wolever will be looking out for bats, but he’ll also monitor pitchers, particularly southpaws.

“I love offensive players and I think everyone does,” he said. “But strong pitching certainly gets you to where you need to be when the bats aren’t going quite right.”

This draft features a strong group of college pitchers, some of whom the Phillies acknowledge they aren’t drafting. Though Wolever and his staff saw every elite prospect in preparation for Monday’s draft, the Phillies know that they have zero chance of obtaining certain players. Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer and Danny Hultzen are among the pitchers who figure to be long gone by the time the Phillies make their first selection.

Nationals Notes: Harper, Riggleman, Bubba Starling

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Last year's top pick, Bryce Harper, hit his first professional walk-off home run last night and now has 13 homers, 11 stolen bases and a .346/.432/.623 line at Class A. Still just 18 years old, Harper provides lots of hope for Nationals fans, though the big league club is in last place with a 25-31 record. Here's the latest out of Washington:

  • Nationals manager Jim Riggleman told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he isn’t worried about his job security, though he’s in the last year of his contract.
  • Frankie Piliere of FOX Sports hears that the Nationals have zoned in on high school outfielder Bubba Starling with the sixth overall pick (Twitter link).
  • In case you haven't heard about the toolsy two-sport star, check out my piece on Starling from a couple weeks ago.

Law On Royals, Josh Bell, Dodgers, Mets

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Draft junkies, you're missing out if you don't read Keith Law's latest chat at ESPN.  Insider is required to read it, and is well worth your money, but here are a few highlights.

  • With the fifth overall pick, Law sees the Royals taking a college arm or Dylan Bundy.  Law and Jim Callis of Baseball America projected them to take Matt Barnes or Gerrit Cole, respectively, in late May mock drafts.  MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo went with high school outfielder Bubba Starling in a mock draft published today.  Mayo mentions UCLA righty Trevor Bauer and high school shortstop Francisco Lindor as well, but Law says the Royals are not on Lindor.
  • One team that is in on Lindor is the Mariners at #2, as ESPN's Shannon Drayer tweets that they worked him out at Safeco Field.  However, Law says that while the Ms like Lindor and Starling, he doubts they'd pass on Anthony Rendon if the Pirates take someone else.
  • Law hears rumors that the Tigers and Red Sox are in on high school outfielder Josh Bell, a Boras Corporation advisee who sent a letter to the MLB Scouting Bureau saying he intends to honor his commitment to the University of Texas and does not want to be drafted.  Law hears a "widespread rumor" about the Tigers drafting Bell and offering $6MM, presumably with the #76 overall pick (their first).
  • The Red Sox don't know how the draft will change under the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, so they intend to take advantage of this year's draft, GM Theo Epstein told Ian Browne of MLB.com. Boston will select four of the first 40 players under second-year scouting director Amiel Sawdaye.
  • Law hears high school righty Robert Stephenson "very strongly" for the Dodgers at #16.  He also hears that the Dodgers can't go over slot with any pick, so hopefully Stephenson is comfortable with $1.8MM or so.  High school shortstop Javier Baez and high school righty Taylor Guerrieri have been projected for the Dodgers in various recent mock drafts.
  • Derek Fisher, a high school outfielder with "light-tower raw power" according to Law, will be a tough sign with demands of $2MM or more.
  • Silly numbers like Danny Hultzen's reported $13MM demand "just get ignored," says Law.  To get to know the University of Virginia southpaw, check out Josh Barr's article for the Washington Post.  The article says Hultzen has visited with officials from only the first six teams picking in the draft, and told those clubs what he'll need to sign.
  • The Mets are leaning toward a college arm at #13, writes Law.  Mayo went with Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray in today's mock.
  • For a look at each team's picks within the first 90, click here.

Jays Look Forward To Drafting Early & Often

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Thanks to the departures of former players like Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, John Buck and, yes, Miguel Olivo, the Blue Jays will be picking early and often this Monday when the MLB draft takes place. No one’s ever accused baseball’s draft pick compensation system of being simple, but the Blue Jays’ amateur scouting director isn’t about to complain about selecting seven of the first 78 players in a talented, top-heavy draft. 

“To me it’s an advantage,” Andrew Tinnish told MLBTR. “I think the more picks you have up high, if you scout well and sign the players, you’ve got a better chance of getting more quality big leaguers.” 

Some would argue that successful drafts correlate better with dollars spent than number of picks, and if that's the case, the Blue Jays may be in an especially enviable position. If last year is any indication, ownership will provide the Jays with the finances to pursue ‘tough signs’ like high schoolers with college commitments, two sport stars or players with over-slot bonus demands. 

In 2010, the first full year under GM Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays spent $11.6MM on bonuses – the third highest amount in draft history, according to Baseball America. When the signing deadline approaches in mid-August, the Blue Jays will again be prepared to sign top players, as long as their asking prices match up with Toronto’s assessment of their potential.

“The way we look at it is we place a value on the player and if we select a player and our value matches what he’s willing to sign for, then we feel like we’re going to be able to be successful and sign a handful of players,” Tinnish said, pointing out that the Blue Jays signed all of their top selections last year. “We’re fortunate in the sense that we have a supportive ownership group that understands that we place value on players in specific areas.”

Last year Tinnish selected Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Asher Wojciechowski – a quartet of right-handed pitchers – with his first picks as an MLB scouting director. The Blue Jays say they expect to select the top players available again instead of drafting based on positional need.

“When you draft a player – whether it’s a high school player or a college player – they’re further from what they’re ultimately going to be than in most sports,” Tinnish said. “This isn’t the NBA; this isn’t the NFL where you can draft a player out of college and they can have an immediate impact on your franchise.”

Blue Jays scouts are meeting this week to rank hundreds of players they’ve watched over the course of the last year-plus and they hope to wrap up the discussions with some time to spare. Tinnish says he’s more comfortable running the draft as a second-year scouting director, but that doesn’t make balancing reports, stats and video any easier. 

"You’re trying to weigh what six, seven, sometimes maybe even eight or nine people saw on different days," Tinnish said. "You’re looking at performance, you’re looking at health, you’re looking at makeup and ultimately it’s our job as scouting directors to in the end make a call on who goes ahead of whom."

The Blue Jays select 21st, 35th, 46th, 53rd and 57th on Monday, then twice more before the end of the second round. Though Tinnish sees it as a “top-heavy” draft with many impact prospects available early on, that doesn’t mean the ones the Blue Jays end up with will be close to Major League-ready. 

“I’m realistic and I understand that it takes time,” he said. “Am I excited about players? Absolutely, I’m very excited about players that we took in last year’s draft, but I also understand that this is a long process that takes time and hopefully they do end up making a difference for us some day.”

Draft Notes: Stilson, Rays, Astros, Nationals, Bundy

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This year’s draft is deep, particularly in terms of power pitchers. Here are the details on some draft-eligible players and the teams that are eyeing them…

  • Texas A&M righty Josh Stilson received a second opinion on his injured shoulder from Dr. James Andrews, who believes surgery can be avoided with a six-week rehab program according to Baseball America's Jim Callis. Stilson, a projected first round pick, suffered a SLAP tear in his throwing shoulder and will miss the rest of the season.
  • ESPN's Jerry Crasnick wrote about Rocco Baldelli's front office job with the Rays, which involves evaluating amateur position players for the draft.
  • Astros assistant GM and scouting director Bobby Heck told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he has been impressed with the crop of power arms in this year's draft.
  • Odds are the Astros will take a pitcher with the 11th overall pick, according to Stephen Goff of the Houston Astros Examiner (Twitter links). High school pitcher Archie Bradley told Goff that "the Astros have been in pretty good contact" with him.
  • High school right-hander Dylan Bundy is a fitness freak who is mature beyond his years, as Nick Piecoro shows at the Arizona Republic. Bundy's pre-season goals? "To hit 100 mph, have a zero ERA and not walk anybody." His fastball touched 100 and he posted a 0.25 ERA with a 158K/5BB ratio.
  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson hears that the Nationals, who select sixth overall, are looking at Bundy, Danny Hultzen, Bubba Starling, Jed Bradley, Trevor Bauer and Alex Meyer.
  • The Royals entered the season with the best farm system in the game, yet GM Dayton Moore told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel that there are many areas in which the organization's prospect depth can improve.
  • The Rays have 12 of the first 89 selections this year and executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says those selections boost the team's odds of finding elite talent. "The more arrows you have, the more likely you are to hit the bulls-eye," Friedman told Bill Chastain of MLB.com.
  • The Padres, who have five of the first 58 picks in the draft, are looking forward to their selections with equal enthusiasm, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock. GM Jed Hoyer says the Padres need to get their picks right.
  • The Red Sox, Hoyer's former team, also have extra picks, something that GM Theo Epstein is looking forward to. “I think it energizes the scouting staff the whole year because they know going in and seeing players, there’s a much better chance you can actually get a guy," he told Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com.
  • The Twins will look to add pitching early on, according to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger.
  • Mets executives Paul DePodesta and Sandy Alderson agree with the consensus that the draft is deep in pitching, according to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo.
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