The Athletics are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Brian Fuentes, RP: two years, $10.5MM. Includes $6.5MM club option for 2013 with a $500K buyout.
- Grant Balfour, RP: two years, $8.1MM. Includes $4.5MM club option for 2013 with a $350K buyout.
- Mark Ellis, 2B: one year, $6MM. Club option exercised.
- Coco Crisp, CF: one year, $5.75MM. Club option exercised.
- Hideki Matsui, DH: one year, $4.25MM.
- Renato Nunez, 3B: $2.2MM bonus.
- Rich Harden, P: one year, $1.5MM.
- Brandon McCarthy, P: one year, $1MM.
- Vicmal De La Cruz, CF: $800K bonus.
- Total spend: $40.1MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF David DeJesus from Royals for SP Vin Mazzaro and SP Justin Marks
- Claimed 3B Edwin Encarnacion off waivers from Blue Jays, later non-tendered
- Acquired RP Danny Farquhar and RP Trystan Magnuson from Blue Jays for OF Rajai Davis
- Acquired OF Jose Rivero from Diamondbacks for cash considerations
- Acquired OF Josh Willingham from Nationals for RP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown
- Claimed SP Philip Humber off waivers from Royals, claimed by White Sox 1-18-11
- Acquired RP Ryan Kelly from Pirates for OF Corey Wimberly
- Acquired SP Guillermo Moscoso from Rangers for RP Ryan Kelly
- Acquired SP Ethan Hollingsworth from Rockies for SP Clayton Mortensen
Notable Losses
- Rajai Davis, Jack Cust, Gabe Gross, Eric Chavez, Jeff Larish, Vin Mazzaro, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Henry Rodriguez, Boof Bonser, Ross Wolf, Justin Marks, Corey Brown, Corey Wimberly, Ryan Kelly, Clayton Mortensen
Summary
Once again, the Athletics failed to reach agreements with top free agent targets, falling short on attempts to sign Hisashi Iwakuma, Lance Berkman, and Adrian Beltre. In an earlier post, I explained that Oakland missed on these players for a classic reason: they didn't offer the best contracts. As ESPN's Jerry Crasnick explained, the A's chose to make modest, incremental upgrades to the offense, and did so by taking the decision out of the player's hands. Two winters ago they acquired Matt Holliday, and this offseason they did the same by trading for DeJesus and Willingham.
Replacing Cust with Matsui at DH is not necessarily an upgrade, but Cust only accounted for about half of the plate appearances for the A's at that position last year. The A's come out ahead overall, at about half the price of Berkman.
The A's didn't get much offense from the many players appearing at their outfield corners last year, so DeJesus and Willingham add much-needed production at reasonable salaries. While neither player is a classic slugger, it's not easy to add a couple of .380 OBPs. GM Billy Beane surrendered several interesting players to rent DeJesus and Willingham, though I wouldn't call the price exorbitant.
Even without Iwakuma, the A's had strong starting pitching depth in the first four spots. For a mere $2.5MM they added projects Harden and McCarthy. It's hard to find fault with such low-risk signings. McCarthy in particular was a hot commodity after teams watched him throw in the Dominican Winter League.
Moneyball comes to the silver screen this year, but I don't think Beane signed Balfour and Fuentes with some kind of cutting-edge market inefficiency in mind. In fact, signing free agent middle relievers to multiyear, top-dollar deals has proven to be one of the least efficient strategies out there. After missing out on primary targets, the A's simply felt spending on the bullpen was the best remaining way to improve their team despite the risk involved. "They're too good to be out there, and we had money to afford them," Beane told Crasnick. Why did the GM shift from overstocking the rotation with a $30MM+ commitment to Iwakuma to bulking up the pen with an $18.6MM expenditure on Balfour and Fuentes? Perhaps they simply did not like Carl Pavano and the other remaining starters. I haven't seen any evidence that their Iwakuma bid was insincere.
I like what the A's did at DH and the outfield corners, though moving money to relief extravagances was less than ideal. They were unable to upgrade at third base, but the A's can't be faulted for the weak market at that position. It stands to reason that the Athletics have cash on reserve to spend on a midseason hot corner addition, though they'll be at the mercy of the trade market and dealing from a poorly-rated farm system. The current offense looks better than last year's, though the improvement is mitigated if you don't think their front four starters can post 700 innings of 3.17 ball again.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
I don’t think Beane signed Balfour and Fuentes with some kind of cutting-edge market inefficiency in mind. In fact, signing free agent middle relievers to multiyear, top-dollar deals has proven to be one of the least efficient strategies out there.
true, but it’s also never been so common. the overvaluing of relievers is widespread right now, and with so many teams willing to overpay for quality relief, beane may anticipate being able to turn a surplus of quality relievers into prospects or other pieces (the way the padres recently have, for example) at some point
maybe not, but i think we see guys like anthopolous seeming to take the same approach. toronto isn’t expected to contend, so acquiring and paying for a guy like francisco seems like step 1 in a process intended to capitalize on exuberance in the market
I’m 100% sure Beane would love to trade Fuentes & Balfour for a Cameron Maybin-esque player, good call.
The releif market
I agree Beane had to make the best possible remaning acquisitions in January, and that ended up being relief pitching. But it’s like he got taken to the cleaners.
Seems to me the relief market was more highly valued this offseason than ever, and Beane wasn’t the highest spender. Look at Papelbon, Soriano, Downs, Jenks etc. Rivera doesn’t really count, but the list goes on. I think Beane just had to pay market rate for 2 guys who look pretty good on paper… the current market is just way up.
As an A’s fan I am happy and cautiously optimisitc. And I think the starting pitching will improve on last year’s ERA.
It’s pretty hard to top a collective 3.17 ERA…..
True, but if anyone can do it, it’s these 4 guys. Some people think Cahill will regress substanitally, and maybe he will. He’s a ground ball machine but has never had great strikeout numbers. But… marl my words: Gio blows up this year. His stuff is bonkers and he throws that curve for strikes. Add that to a full season of Brett Anderson and an ever-improving Dallas Braden and it’s well within reason.
The gap between ERA and xFIP is pretty dramatic for all those guys (all 4 were at around a 1 run difference). That’s why most projection systems see them falling quite a bit off their stellar 2010 seasons. That said, this is still a great collection of young arms. Any team would be thrilled to have guys like Cahill, Anderson, Gonzalez, and Braden.
“He’s a ground ball machine but has never had great strikeout numbers.” Doesn’t that pretty much describe all of the pitchers in the A’s rotation? I can’t think of “power arm, strikeout” guy they have. The collective ERA was good because the A’s had good defense in 2010, will they have that same defense in 2011?
I wouldn’t call Gio Gonzalez a typical strikeout guy in terms of stuff, but he’s got the ability to put up 9, maybe even 10 K’s per nine.
Was Vicmal De La Cruz a major league signing?
Nah. International free agent signing. I believe he’s only 16.
Hmmm yeah I guess I should leave out the international guys there.
Mark Ellis one of the most underrated players in the game. Plays an incredible 2b
I agree. It’s a crime that he doesn’t own at least one Gold Glove.
Mark Grudzielanek & Robinson Cano have Ellis’s Gold Gloves. Its such a bummer, he’s sensational there and no one recognizes it.
Don’t forget Dustin Predoria. Ellis should’ve got the gold glove couple seasons ago when Dustin won it. Just like Barton should’ve got it last season!
True indeed…
*If he can stay healthy.
Tim, do you not remember how badly the A’s bullpen was spread thin for most of 2010, due to injuries? It definitely cost them some games.
With Balfour and Fuentes in the fold, they shouldn’t have that problem again, this year. And if they have enough healthy relievers and outfielders in June/July, hopefully they can package some of them for a bat, without having to give up a top prospect.
I personally thought that signing two quality relief arms was a great way to reallocate some of the money they had hoped to spend on Beltre!
More so than a great way I think it was the only way left.
True. But you couldn’t ask for a better last resort. Bailey and Blevins both had offseason surgery. Wuertz barely avoided thumb surgery, and is still having shoulder trouble. And Devine still hasn’t pitched a game since 2008.
I feel a lot more comfortable knowing that we’re not nearly as likely to see many Boof Bonser’s this season.
I agree with your point that their bullpen had question marks before the signings, yeah.
2011 AL West Champions!
Better believe it..ready for the tailgates!
It’a amazing how much false hope a decent season can instill in people
You must be a Giants fan..
LOL…Astros
This team will win the AL west. I love Beane, and I love his staff. I don’t see how anyone scores on any facet of their pitching staff/ defense.
Cust only had half the atbats cuz the As had a brainfart and had him start the season at AAA.
Cust was horrible! There was no brain fart. Sending him to AAA was an intent to send him a message to step up his game! It never happened. It’s why he is no longer on the team
.272/.395/.438, with 13 HRs and 19 doubles in 349 at-bats was horrible?
With 150+ strikeouts each year. And 200 in one year. Yea that’s pretty horrible to me and every A’s fan that watched him play everyday. He would leave men on base constantly. That is why matsui would make a big difference because he is a contact hitter. Glad Jack Bust is gone.
Why are you so hung up on K totals?
Do you not realize that in many many cases, striking out is the same as popping up, flying out, grounding out, fouling out, lining out, swinging and hitting the ball twice, or having the ball roll down the first baseline and making contact with the ball in fair territory and being called out? All of these things are outs. They are usually the same. Sometimes it’s better to hit the ball in a certain place, in order to advance a runner. But other times it is actually better to strike out, so you can’t hit into a double play.
And grounding into double plays can essentially nullify sac fly’s. For example, Albert Pujols hit 6 sac fly’s in 2010, but grounded into 23 double plays. The bad and the good generally outweigh each other. Not completely, but pretty close. So why does it really matter if a player K’s 200 times a year or not? It’s a generic out that doesn’t help OR hurt the team more than any other out does.
I’m a lot happier with Matsui than I was with Cust. But Cust’s high K rate did NOT make him horrible. If a high K rate makes you horrible, then I guess Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard must be horrible, as well.
Ohh my goodness!! How are you even putting Cust in the same sentence with Howard or Dunn. That’s like totally disrespecting them haha. If you hit 30+ HR each year you can afford to make 150+ strikeouts. Both of them had 550+ at bats last season compared to Cust 350 and they almost had the same strikeout ratio. But your right, outs are outs. But you know what the difference is? That Cust couldn’t make productive outs. Man on 2nd with less than 2 outs, you HAVE move that runner over! Cust couldn’t do that. If you would watch A’s game on a regular basis you would see that. Cust CAN be a great/good hitter. We have seen it, but in recent seasons he just couldn’t do it anymore. The A’s gave him plenty of opportunities and he just couldn’t produce. I think it was just time for him and the A’s to have a change of scenery. Maybe he can produce wit the mariners but as far as being a athletic I thought it was better for him to move on
Numbers dont lie, and Cust was a great hitter last season. Jake Fox should have never seen time in an A’s uniform, that was the worst decision ever.
Pete are you serious! Cust was a great hitter? You must of not watched any A’s games! If he wasn’t striking out he was walking. That’s not what a DH is suppose to do
cust is one of the most significantly and consistently underrated hitters in baseball – even in oakland. he is a superb hitter by every metric that matters. there’s nothing wrong with matsui, but he is not not not a better hitter than jack cust
wah wah wah strikeouts and “clutch”. cust’s .371 wOBA sat between adrian gonzalez and billy butler among 1st basemen last year. 135 wRC+ is adam dunn and prince fielder territory
by wOBA he was the 3rd best DH in the league a few points behind ortiz; by wRC+ he was #2
he should never ever be allowed to play the field. but he is very good hitter. there can be no coherent argument to the contrary
They DFA’d him, and sent him to Sacramento because he had a really poor spring training, and then he looked even worse during his first two weeks in Sacramento.
Once they called him back up, he was wisely benched against most of the left-handed starters they faced. That’s why he only had roughly half of the DH at-bats. And it’s why Matsui will be a better option. He can hit lefties a lot better than Cust.
Matsui is a better all around hitter. He puts balls in play which is what a DH is suppose to do. The HR will come but i think it’s more important for a DH to just make contact. Which is what Cust never did. Cust strikeout numbers were always thru the roof. I think he always thought that every ball he made contact had to leave the yard, which is the total opposite of Matsui’s approach at the plate. Make contact and let the defense make plays. That’s how you get runs.
you get runs by avoiding outs. cust avoids outs better than matsui and his hits are more valuable than matsui’s hits. these things are not debatable. read the numbers
The thing that annoyed me about Cust (I was still a relative fan last year) was his lack of hitting in higher leverage situations: with men on base and in scoring position (235 and 234, respectively).
Now, his obp in these situations was certainly solid enough (.369 and .375) but I wish he had expanded his strike zone and protected better in 2 strike counts in these high leverage situations.
Why? Well, using a basketball analogy, all those walks (and lack of hits) in RISP conditions is like Kobe Bryant consistently passing the ball to Luke Walton for the final shot. Cust definitely was the best hitter on the team, but walking during these times put the bat in inferior players’ hands.
there’s no arguing about that; he did perform poorly in the clutch. but as that’s generally a function of luck, it’s not really a good reason to get rid of him. the same thing could happen to matsui, who probably won’t be quite as effective a hitter overall anyway
Yeah you could blame luck on him not being able to hit with RISP but over his career he is a .249 hitter with RISP. Ok he has a .407 OBP but he is not paid to walk a bunch, he is paid to get guys to touch home plate and he just simply is not very good at doing that. It is the single reason why so many A’s fans are annoyed at him. If he was a #6 or #7 hitter for the A’s then he would be a great part of the lineup but as the #3 or #4 hitter it is the absolute worst thing for the A’s which is why I think that A’s fans will love Matsui and won’t even remember Cust. Plus with the low market that the A’s are in and the fact that there is only room for 1 DH, Cust had to go because he was not doing his job which is to get guys to touch home plate.
i hear what you are saying, but i think the point my point is still escaping
cust’s wOBA with RISP in 2010: .324 (bad, isn’t he?)
cust’s career wOBA: .365
but! cust’s career wOBA with RISP: .372
so there goes that
“clutch” isn’t a skill. what you see are small samples year over year which yield characterizations of a player as “good with RISP” or “bad with RISP”. but the reality is that RISP has nothing to do with it: the player hits roughly the same either way, just like virtually everyone else. clutch is about distribution, not skill. in other words, it’s luck
for funsies, hideki matsui’s career wOBA: .366
hideki matsui’s career wOBA with RISP: .367
hideki matsui’s wOBA with RISP in 2007: .314 (bad, isn’t he?)
and if instead of using career numbers you use each player’s last 3 full seasons, the picture is even clearer: matsui is quite good, and cust is a bit better. he is a victim of faulty fan perception, blamed for the inabilities of the other hitters in his lineup. it is not much different than criticizing him for low RBI totals, which i’m confident you’d acknowledge as stupid
I understand what you are saying but I really wish wOBA didn’t take into consideration walks because if he is relied on to drive guys in which was why he was stuck in the 3/4 holes, it really doesn’t help that he walks so much because he really isn’t doing the job that he was brought in to do unless the bases are loaded which is as we all know, one of the more rare events in baseball for a single batter to come up to the plate with. Basically all I’m saying is that yes Cust is a valuable batter no doubt, but not for a team that is desperate for runs and the fact that he didn’t produce those runs just made it harder on himself. Even more so is probably the fact that he has to give up power to hit for a higher average and vice versa.
i hear you, and there’s no disputing the batting averages. but ultimately at most what you have there is a reason not to bat him in the 3-5 spot, not a reason to get rid of him
and it’s not even actually clear that you do have that. wOBA is telling you something extremely useful. the outcomes are weighted according to their relative values – and walks are in fact weighted least. still, cust’s wOBA is superior to matsui’s. instead of considering this in terms of production, try thinking about it in terms of cost. with or without RISP, matsui’s outs are costing more than cust’s
in light of the walks v. batting average thing, this may seem counter-intuitive. after all, as you & others have said, it would be so much better to put the ball in play than to just take a walk and have the next guy hit, right? so here are some helpful things to bear in mind concerning the value of walks with men on base:
1. A lead-off hitter is only guaranteed to be the lead-off hitter in the first inning. After the first inning, it is basically random. So for 8 out of 9 innings, the “OBP is worth more at the top of the lineup” principle doesn’t apply. (Note also that if Cust bats fourth and the team produces three straight outs in the first, you have a high OBP lead off guy.)
2. The most expensive outs, in terms of run expectancy, are out produced with men on base. For example, a team begins the inning with about .55 runs expected. Add one base runner, and that doubles. Make an out with a base runner, and you go back to about half a run.
3. If, on the other hand, you add a runner with men already on base, you increase run expectancy, even if they guy coming to the plate is a less good hitter.
good things to remember, and really this is just an elaboration of what i mentioned before: you simply cannot hold against cust the failures of other players. overall he’s providing tons of value – more than matsui, even. and that’s accounting for the apparent RISP controversy
The A’s need power. It is rare that a team makes the playoffs without power. You have to bunch a lot hits together to score runs without power.
One word – Giants. The A’s have comparable power to last year’s Series champs, which is why I think the green and gold have big things in store more them.
Farquhar and Fukudome both sit down at a bar …
I wouldn’t necessarily say that Beane is just renting Willingham and DeJesus. The A’s aren’t exactly thick with OF prospects, so unless Carter takes to LF like a duck to water this season and Choice blows up like Buster Posey, I can see the A’s signing at least one of their current “rental” players to an extension. Heck, Willingham has already said multiple times that he’s open to the idea, so maybe they’re already kicking something around.
I think Willingham is a good bet for an extension, yeah.
This thread feels empty without safaripunch complaining about the Iwakuma dealings.
Is that the goof who called Billy Beane a “dream crusher” because he wouldn’t pay Iwakuma double his worth? LOL
I wish someone would offer to crush MY dreams for 4/$16MM! And my employer wouldn’t even want $19.1MM to turn me loose!
To be fair he is getting paid $5M to stay in Japan for this year and then he would get to test the international Free Agent market with all of the MLB teams bidding on him. I think though that he will be lucky to get even $4M per next year.
i think the A’s became a better team with their pickups
Your Cubbies have a good squad this year also. But seems NL central also got a bit tougher this coming year as well. Should be a good race. I like the Cubbies pitching this year with Garza and Zombrano I think will be much improved
Love the moves they made, but I said the same about Seattle last season! Still getting a ton of flack for predicting they’d win the AL West!
Billy Beane is running on fumes, stick a fork in him