When Josh Beckett makes his first start of the season tomorrow, exactly one year will have passed since the Red Sox locked him up for $68MM over four years. Now Boston's fourth starter, Beckett is trying to recover from what was arguably the worst season of his ten-year career.
Poor performance and poor health turned Beckett from one of the most dependable starters in the league to one of the most perplexing. A lower back injury sent him to the disabled list and limited him to 21 starts, his lowest total since 2002. When he did pitch, the results weren't pretty. Of the 140 MLB pitchers who threw 100 innings last year, Beckett ranked 137th with a 5.78 ERA.
Beckett would have been a free agent after last year if the Red Sox hadn't locked him up and it's easy to see why GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office wanted to keep him in Boston. He was among American League leaders in a number of categories including strikeouts per nine innings (8.4 K/9), walks per nine innings (2.3 BB/9) and innings (212 1/3) in 2009 and was coming off of a season filled with personal bests. Plus, Beckett had a standout postseason record and was one of two pitchers in baseball to record at least 150 strikeouts every season from 2003-09.
His free agent stock would have tumbled after the 2010 season and he would have been lucky to sign for half of what Boston committed to him last April. Though interested teams would have liked Beckett's 93.5 mph fastball, 45.8% ground ball rate and typically strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9), he would have represented a risky investment given his back injury and lackluster results.
Beckett has bounced back from disappointing seasons to prove doubters wrong before. He followed up his discouraging Boston debut with 20 wins and a second place finish in the 2007 Cy Young voting. And at 30 years of age, he is certainly not old.
The extension kicks in this year (and will pay Beckett $15.75MM annually through 2014), so it's too early to label it a bust or a success. But one year after its completion, the contract looks like a definite overpay and the Red Sox are hoping Beckett rebounds once again.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Most overrated pitcher in the MLB. It’s too bad they didn’t notice that earlier.
Wait for it….wait for it…….wait for it. After reading your comment why do I feel like the fat kid with the inner tube splashing in the water just before the “Jaws” music starts to play?
Just as Pedroia is the most overrated player in MLB!
Not good news for Cano then since Pedroia has been worth 4 full WAR more than Cano in 100 less games since ’08.
Is that true? It seems off..
Sure is, check it out on fangraphs. From ’08-’10 Pedroia put up 14.9 WAR and Cano put up 10.9, while Pedroia played in 386 games and Cano played in 480.
Just putting it out there. I disagree with UZR numbers for IF’ers and that’s really the only knock against Cano. Somehow he’s always in the negative defensively even though he usuall ranks at #1 in all other counting defensive stats. Somehow, the “eyeball” findings of his range negatively effect his UZR.
Interestingly, Jeter sucks at all the same stats that Cano leads. I can accept the findsing on Jeter because all the other stats reach the same conclusion. With Cano, can’t accept the findings.
+/- liked him even less than UZR in 08 fwiw, but has liked him pretty well since then
Disagree, Grady Sizemore has to be the most overrated
Between ’07 and ’09 only four pitchers put up more WAR, only two had better K/BB, and only one had a lower xFIP. One bad year (in which he spent a great deal of time injured) and all of a sudden the guy is overrated? The only way you could have overrated him from ’07-’09 would have been to say that he was the best pitcher in baseball; you could pretty easily have made a case that he was top 5 without overrating him.
2010 wasn’t even that bad. the ERA scares everyone, but the only real differences were an increased walk rate, lowered strand rate, and high HR/FB and BABIP figures (bad luck). it came down to command, which for a pitcher is not hard to attribute to a weakened back
his velocity and all of his peripherals were stable, so there’s really nothing to worry about with a healthy beckett. hopefully all the whining, though — and the seeming demotion to 4th starter — will serve as motivation
I can honestly say that regardless of the warning signs, the Yanks would’ve gladly offered him the same contract. Power pitching ace types are just a rare breed on the free agent market.
Yeah. Not sure why people say he’s overrated. People get injured. When on, Beckett is one of the best around. Really good fastball and peripherals. He’ll be back
I hope so. I missed out on good pitching in my draft and had to settle for the likes of Burnett and Beckett.
pick up Jurrjens
in the three full seasons prior to his injury in 2010, josh beckett produced 18.3 WAR
in the three full seasons prior to 2011, jon lester has produced 17.1 WAR. verlander has produced 18.0. sabathia has produced 19.1 (and only two of those seasons were in the AL East)
anyone who thinks beckett is overrated based on last year is too weird and wrong to even take seriously
I wish ppl would think that way with AJ. Last year was the extreme and not the norm for him.
looks like i actually i included 2010 in beckett’s total by mistake. he was actually worth 16.9 from 07-09
that means he was as good as lester has been and is a game behind verlander & sabathia (knocking him down a bit for the ridiculous run in milwaukee)
a.j. on the other hand put up 11.6 WAR in his three full seasons prior to what we’ll call a mental injury in 2010
his comparables from the last three years there are gavin floyd and – get this – josh beckett!
but more to your point, yeah, a.j’s troubles have been blown out of proportion. even though his peripherals weren’t as stable as beckett’s and he didn’t have an injury excuse, he’s always been pretty volatile. and volatility means he can come roaring back to the tune of 5 WAR this season just as easily as he blew things up during the last one
Yeah, I get completely frustrated with AJ but if ppl really looked at him with some reason the three years prior to 2010 he was one of the top pitchers in the AL.
GS-8th in the AL
IP-8th in the AL
FIP-16th in the AL
xFIP-8th in the AL
K/9-2nd in the AL
GB%-4th in the AL
BaBIP-9th in the AL (lowest)
LOB %-12th in the AL (highest)
WAR-12th in the AL
HR/9-19th in the AL
BB/9-31st in the AL
The two obvious problems are his walks and HR/9. The HR/9 isn’t as horrible as the BB/9 but still.
But when you look at his durability (8th), his ability to miss bats (2nd), his ability to induce GB (4th) and his ability to strand runners (12th) you would think he would have better results.
If Burnett can avoid getting black eyes, he should rebound closer to his career norms.
If Curt Young can teach Beckett how to actually pitch, he’ll be worth every penny and more. He has a ton of talent, but a very hard head.
Oh, and that goes double for Papelbon.
what makes you think beckett doesn’t know how to pitch? or papelbon for that matter?
Ever see someone who knows how to pitch go through an entire appearance throwing nothing but fastballs? There are lots of pitchers who don’t have the arm strength of Beckett or Papelbon, but who are much more effective because they know when/how to set up hitters with a variety of pitch types and locations.
Papelbon knows how to pitch, he just chooses not to. All of his problems started when he changed his arm slot and essentially stopped being able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes.
Beckett, I stand by last year’s health issues being his biggest issue. The guy’s curveball is filthy when it’s working.
“Ever see someone who knows how to pitch go through an entire appearance throwing nothing but fastballs?”
were you not around for curt schilling or something
can’t stand when people suggest his problem is pitch selection. totally unsupportable theory propagated by clueless sports writers and eaten up by casual fans who don’t think it through
as curt schilling himself routinely explained around 2006 when people were whining about beckett’s fastball use, he’s got a better fastball than schilling had. he should throw it a ton. it has been and is a plus pitch
the fact that he has a plus curveball (and possibly a plus change this year) doesn’t change that fact. like schilling, beckett can and has dominated games throwing fastballs almost exclusively. that isn’t his problem
he struggles when he throws his fastball over the middle of the plate, like everyone else does when they do that. command is the issue, not pitch selection. his back was weak in 2010 and as a result his command was as bad as it has been since 2006
if that doesn’t change, he’s screwed. but it won’t be because of his pitch selection
Yeah, I was around for Curt Schilling. I was also around for Bill Monbouquette. In addition to his fastball, Schilling had a good change-up, a decent slider, an OK curve, and a killer splitter. Early in his career, he was a thrower, like Beckett. Then at some point he learned that he couldn’t just throw the ball past every batter he faced. He figured out that command and pitch selection were at least as important to success as raw speed and he became an elite pitcher. He tried like hell to teach the importance of command to Beckett, with only limited success.
Look, I don’t hate Beckett. I’m encouraged that he spent time over the winter developing a real change. If he’s healthy, this could be the start of a real resurgence for him. He looked more confident in that game against Houston than all of last year. I look forward to watching him pitch tonight.
“In addition to his fastball, Schilling had a good change-up, a decent slider, an OK curve, and a killer splitter.”
none of which did he throw as often as beckett throws his off-speed stuff. that is, schilling threw his fastball even more than beckett throws his. with tremendous success
“Early in his career, he was a thrower, like Beckett. Then at some point he learned that he couldn’t just throw the ball past every batter he faced.”
just not true. look it up. find a way to talk to curt yourself. he’s talked about this dozens of times, half of those times in relation to beckett specifically telling people not to believe what you are now saying you believe about pitch selection
it’s not about pitch selection. it’s about command. even when schilling’s fastball was down in the low 90’s in boston, he threw it more than beckett throws his. and it worked because — to return to your first comment — he knew how to pitch
According to fangrpahs, since 2002:
CS vs JB, % of FBs thrown:
55% vs 74%
53% vs 59%
58% vs 68%
62% vs 69%
62% vs 69%
54% vs 63%
avg of 57.4% vs avg of 64.8%
JB: 2008: 67%, 2009:60% and 2010: 55%
CS also had 4 other pitches that over that period of time he threw at least an average of 5% of the time. JB only had 2 other pitches that he used at least 5% of the time. Since 2009 he’s also relied on the cutter as well throwing it 5% of the time in ’09 and 15% in ’10.
haha, what is it you think a cutter is? check out my cut changeup guys. if you count fastballs, as you should:
beckett – schilling
69 – 59
63 – 69
69 – 69
65
70
important here? like schill, beckett’s success has come from using the fastball 65-70% of the time. therefore his poor performance should not be attributed to the frequency with which he throws his fastball
an hour after this exchange beckett comes out in cleveland throwing like jaime moyer. with similar success. love it
Well buddy,fangraphs lists cutters as well. Curt started throwing them in 2004 and Josh in 2005 neven if it was way less than 1%.
From 2002 CS threw the FB and Cutter, on average, 60% of the time. From 2002-2020 JB threw the FB and Cutter,on average, 67% of the time.
Now maybe I didn’t make my stance clear. I’m not trying to explain JB’s struggleoreven trying to point out what is or isn’t the blame. Just that your stance that “even when schilling’s fastball was down in the low 90’s in boston, he threw it more than beckett throws his” was factually incorrect.
no it wasn’t, as i just showed
my clam: “even when schilling’s fastball was down in the low 90’s in boston, he threw it more than beckett throws his”
the facts: schilling did throw his fastball more than beckett during a successful 2005 season. it’s also true that in two other seasons, he and beckett threw fastballs at the same rate and that for one season beckett threw more than schilling. it’s also irrelevant. it changes nothing that was being discussed and in fact directly supports what i’ve been saying here. (in that more-than-schilling season he threw 69% fastballs. he also threw 69% in 2008, a 5+ WAR season)
neither schilling’s nor beckett’s struggles were attributable to fastball selection; they were attributable to command
Just think how crippling this would be to a team like the Rays. Yet, it doesn’t even hiccup the Red Sox.
GMs like Andrew Friedman just don’t get enough credit. He is an absolute genuis. And talk about a competitive disadvantage tho.
With access to information becoming easier and easier by the minute, I see a lot more rash judgements of players based on one bad season. Josh Beckett might be an injury risk these days — he may never be the same again. But how does that make him overrated? I didn’t see anyone kissing the ground he walked on in 2010. He got a lot of attention, yes. But he’s also been the #1 starter on a team that recently won 2 Championships in 3 years. I’ve never been comfortable watching him on the mound; I said back in 2008 that he just looked like a guy who was barely holding on, even in his best seasons. I don’t know if I was right. I just had a gut feeling he was going to suffer a major injury in the next few years. Regardless, he toughed it out and put up some great numbers. I’d have to say that Josh Beckett deserves a lot more credit than just writing him off as overrated.
“But he’s also been the #1 starter on a team that recently won 2 Championships in 3 years”
I didn’t know Beckett was actually Kobe Bryant. It could be true, have you ever seen them in the same place at the same time??
Sorry to nitpick (I really am), but Beckett was not on the first WS roster. He was with Florida in ’04. Also, Boston won two championships in four years, not three. ’04, ’05, ’06, ’07.
But yeah, I don’t think he is overrated at all, mainly because I’ve seen how he can dismantle a lineup first hand, especially in the post season.
Man, I love it when all the regulars hang out in the same thread! GROUP HUG!!
I bailed. Beckett makes me sad haha
Beckett has been a solid pitcher the last 5 years. He ranked 12th overall for pitchers with 20.4 WAR. An average of 4 WAR is solid over that long of a duration.
The question is how much Beckett has left in the tank. Is it hard to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox have 2 huge contracts that contribute nothing to the team in the next few years (Beckett and Lackey).
you gotta love how this whole over rated talk stems from his contract. but that notion Josh johnson, ubaldo, halladay lincecum are all under rated and Joey bautista is extremley over rated