Josh Beckett’s Extension One Year Later
When Josh Beckett makes his first start of the season tomorrow, exactly one year will have passed since the Red Sox locked him up for $68MM over four years. Now Boston's fourth starter, Beckett is trying to recover from what was arguably the worst season of his ten-year career.
Poor performance and poor health turned Beckett from one of the most dependable starters in the league to one of the most perplexing. A lower back injury sent him to the disabled list and limited him to 21 starts, his lowest total since 2002. When he did pitch, the results weren't pretty. Of the 140 MLB pitchers who threw 100 innings last year, Beckett ranked 137th with a 5.78 ERA.
Beckett would have been a free agent after last year if the Red Sox hadn't locked him up and it's easy to see why GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office wanted to keep him in Boston. He was among American League leaders in a number of categories including strikeouts per nine innings (8.4 K/9), walks per nine innings (2.3 BB/9) and innings (212 1/3) in 2009 and was coming off of a season filled with personal bests. Plus, Beckett had a standout postseason record and was one of two pitchers in baseball to record at least 150 strikeouts every season from 2003-09.
His free agent stock would have tumbled after the 2010 season and he would have been lucky to sign for half of what Boston committed to him last April. Though interested teams would have liked Beckett's 93.5 mph fastball, 45.8% ground ball rate and typically strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9), he would have represented a risky investment given his back injury and lackluster results.
Beckett has bounced back from disappointing seasons to prove doubters wrong before. He followed up his discouraging Boston debut with 20 wins and a second place finish in the 2007 Cy Young voting. And at 30 years of age, he is certainly not old.
The extension kicks in this year (and will pay Beckett $15.75MM annually through 2014), so it's too early to label it a bust or a success. But one year after its completion, the contract looks like a definite overpay and the Red Sox are hoping Beckett rebounds once again.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
New York Notes: Feliciano, Reyes, Harris
Links for Monday night, as Jorge Posada hits his third home run in two days…
- Pedro Feliciano told Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork that he was upset to hear that Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen suggested he was overworked last year (Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he was "abused."). Feliciano maintains that he likes to pitch a lot and predicts he'll strike out Ike Davis when the Yankees face the Mets this year. Feliciano says he didn't sign with the Mets because they weren't willing to offer a multiyear deal.
- As MLB.com's Anthony DiComo explains, the decade-long partnership between Jose Reyes and David Wright of the Mets may come to an end in 2011.
- Willie Harris, who is off to a hot start with the Mets, drew interest from a half-dozen other teams this offseason, according to DiComo.
Giants Notes: Ross, Runzler, Rowand, Belt
The defending World Champions are off to a slow 1-3 start and will face the Padres tomorrow after a day off. Here's the latest on the Giants…
- Chris Haft of MLB.com outlines some ways the Giants could create roster space for Cody Ross and Brian Wilson when they return to action. It appears that the Giants will option Dan Runzler to create space for Wilson, but creating space for Ross won't be as simple. Rookie Brandon Belt may have to return to the minor leagues.
- Haft adds that there's little to any trade rumors involving Aaron Rowand.
- Manager Bruce Bochy has earned the Giants' respect because they aren't concerned that his motives go beyond winning, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. That means Belt's transition from prospect to big leaguer has been relatively smooth.
- John Klima of the LA Times explains how Belt, a fifth rounder, beat many highly-touted prospects to the majors and has earned a roster spot on the defending World Champions.
Extension Candidates: Sophomore Starters
Wade Davis signed a multiyear extension with the Rays last week, though he's just one season into his MLB career. The deal is not without risk for Davis, since he could pitch like Ubaldo Jimenez and become a bargain for Tampa Bay, or for the Rays since Davis could get hurt, depriving them of a pitcher they need.
Here's a list of pitchers who could sign deals like the four-year, $12.6MM contract Tampa Bay completed with Davis. Like the Rays righty, these pitchers are on track to hit arbitration after 2012 and free agency after 2015 unless otherwise noted (age in parentheses):
- Mat Latos, Padres (23) – Latos was flat-out phenomenal last year and would be positioned to ask for more than Davis obtained with his record deal. The skill is there, so if the Padres believe in his health (he's now on the DL) and maturity, Latos would be an extension candidate.
- Wade LeBlanc, Padres (26) – LeBlanc, now in the minor leagues, is older than Latos and without the same front-of-the-rotation potential. His numbers, though comparable to the ones Davis has, don't scream 'lock me up,' so a deal seems unlikely.
- Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (23) – The Rockies were aggressive with extensions this offseason, locking up Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and others. Chacin, who struck out a batter per inning in 2010, wouldn't cost nearly as much as his more experienced teammates.
- Mike Leake, Reds (23) – If one organization was as extension happy as the Rockies this offseason it was the Reds. Leake struggled down the stretch last year and just barely made Cincinnati's rotation. They'll likely let the 2009 first rounder prove himself before committing eight figures to him.
- Jon Niese, Mets (24) – Niese has comparable numbers to Davis, with slightly more strikeouts per inning (7.4 K/9) and a higher ERA (4.33).
- Brian Matusz, Orioles (24) – Matusz compares to Davis statistically, but he could establish himself as a front-of-the-rotation starter with a breakout 2011 season, so he may be reluctant to lock himself in to pre-set salaries.
- Mitch Talbot, Indians (27) - Talbot has poor walk (4.3 BB/9) and strikeout (5.0 K/9) numbers so far in his career, so he doesn't seem like a likely extension candidate. The Indians did extend Fausto Carmona, who doesn't get many strikeouts, but they may prefer to let Talbot prove himself further before committing to him.
- Brett Cecil, Blue Jays (24) and Madison Bumgarner, Giants (21) both impressed in 2010. They're possible super two players, which means they may go to arbitration four times, once more than the starters above. If either Cecil or Bumgarner signed an extension, it wouldn't be completely parallel to the Davis deal.
It's possible that none of these pitchers will sign extensions, since long-term contracts for starters with fewer than two years of service time are uncommon. Some players don't mind going year to year in anticipation of big arbitration paydays and many teams prefer not to commit eight-figure deals to relatively unproven pitchers.
But some small market clubs, like the Athletics, Indians and Rays, have successfully completed a number of multiyear contracts for emerging pitchers. Teams looking to spend now and save later could take note and approach their best sophomore arms about long-term deals.
Angels Notes: Kazmir, Bell, Palmer
The latest on the Angels, who lost three of four games against the Royals over the weekend…
- Though Angels manager Mike Scioscia says he’ll consider making changes to the pitching staff, Scott Kazmir’s job is safe for now, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The $12MM left-hander is on a “short leash,” but he’ll make at least one more start.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that there’s not much room for optimism when it comes to Kazmir or Marlins starter Javier Vazquez. I recently compared Kazmir to another well-paid left-hander who experienced early-career success, Oliver Perez.
- Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles also weighs in on Kazmir's struggles and explains that Triple-A starters Matt Palmer and Trevor Bell are alternatives for the Angels to consider. They are looking out for end-of-rotation help and possibly a veteran reliever, according to Saxon.
Daniels On Feliz, Ogando, Young
Rangers GM Jon Daniels told Jim Bowden and Casey Stern that he expects the development of the Rangers’ young starters to have a major say in the organization’s 2011 success. Here are the other highlights from Daniels’ conversation on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM:
- The Rangers definitely believe Neftali Feliz, the team’s current closer, has the stuff to start in the Major Leagues. Daniels points out that the industry values starters more than relievers, since starters log more innings and can shut down the opposition for an entire game. The Rangers remain open to inserting Feliz into the rotation in 2012.
- Alexi Ogando “really wanted” to start and the Rangers are happy to have a free look at him in the rotation while other, more experienced starters like Tommy Hunter, Scott Feldman and Brandon Webb recover from injuries.
- The Rangers aren't discussing Michael Young trades and don't have any plans to reignite talks. “It’s really not even a topic of conversation as far as we’re concerned right now,” Daniels said. “We have no conversations going about trading any of our players right now, Michael included, and I don't see any coming up.”
AL East Notes: Cole, Penny, Davis, Vlad
A few AL East links, as the Orioles enjoy first place…
- Check out some interesting quotes from Yankees executives Brian Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer in Tyler Kepner's profile of potential #1 draft pick Gerrit Cole for the New York Times. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith spoke to Cole in March.
- The Rays and other teams approached Brad Penny during the offseason about becoming a closer, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Three club options "are far too many" from a player's point of view, writes SI's Jon Heyman in reference to Wade Davis' new contract with Tampa Bay. Davis' agent B.B. Abbott explained to MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith on Thursday that the pitcher felt the contract represented a worthwhile tradeoff.
- Not much is known about Vladimir Guerrero's personal life, but Kevin Van Valkenburg and Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun shed a little light on his personality.
Rowland-Smith Remains With Astros
Pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith cleared waivers, elected free agency, and re-signed with the Astros on a minor league deal according to this tweet from Alyson Footer. The Astros signed Rowland-Smith to a big league deal in December, so these machinations allow him to remain with the organization without taking up a spot on the 25 or 40-man rosters. He can join the Oklahoma City RedHawks in Triple-A and await a potential opening with the big club.
Vernon Wells’ Free Agent Value
In my Angels offseason in review article, I suggested that Vernon Wells might have gotten four years and $52MM at best if he had been a free agent this offseason. Since the Angels essentially took on a four-year, $75.75MM commitment to Wells in the trade with the Blue Jays, they overpaid by at least $20MM – even if we leave Mike Napoli's positive trade value out of the equation.
I decided to conduct an informal poll on this topic. I asked an assortment of team executives and agents what Wells would have gotten as a free agent this winter. Three executives and three agents responded. Here's what they said:
- "At age 32 coming off a big year — but also realizing his previous three years were littered with injuries and inconsistency — I would think Wells would be in line for three-year, $36 million type deal. He isn't as hot a name as Jayson Werth or even Jason Bay the year before but he still had a good year and has a performance history."
- "Wells had a strong bounceback year last year and the market was WEAK for guys who can play center field…Wells would have commanded six years at $15-17MM a year for a contract anywhere from $90-102MM over the life of the contract."
- "$50MM over four years from the Angels. He had a nice year last year, plus I think the Angels got pretty desperate when everybody said no to them."
- "I'd say Wells would have gotten a deal short of what Jason Bay received last year [four years, $66MM]. He’s still a decent enough player — but I can't see him doing any better than about one-half of the total package of what Werth received."
- "I could see him being a $10-12 mil guy for maybe four years. If you put on blinders to the contract, he is a 25 home run guy…inconsistent for sure, but still above average production."
- "In the ballpark of three years, $40-45MM or four years, $50-55MM. I assume Wells would probably have signed after Werth and Crawford. Obviously same market as Beltre, but not sure the value is the same there."
I hadn't expected a consensus, but four years and $52MM does seem to be a fair estimate. The Angels overpaid by about $24MM to get Wells, plus whatever trade value Napoli had.
Erik Bedard: This Summer’s Available Ace?
I've recently opined that it's difficult to identify an ace starter likely to hit the trading block in July. However, in most years a few would-be contenders are surprisingly bad and a few pitchers have breakout or unexpected seasons, giving the trade market some semblance of an available #1 or #2 starter.
Could the Mariners' Erik Bedard be that pitcher in 2011? As MLB.com's Cash Kruth notes, Bedard will take a Major League mound today for the first time since July 25th, 2009. He had multiple surgeries in the interim, as doctors repaired a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder. The 32-year-old made it through Spring Training unscathed, and pitched well aside from his final outing.
Bedard's Seattle career to date consists of 30 starts spread across two seasons. Though he was working through shoulder issues, the numbers are strong: a 3.24 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 164 innings, with only 135 hits allowed. Bedard averaged fewer than 5.5 innings per start, so he'll be most effective on a club with a strong bullpen.
Bedard is not the #1 starter he was in 2007 with the Orioles, but he could still be the best available at the trade deadline. We've seen injuries kill his trade value before, so there's no point in getting serious about suitors until July. Still, the Yankees would make sense, assuming the two front offices can put aside any bad blood from last year's Cliff Lee talks. Otherwise, we'll have to wait to see which contenders develop rotation needs three months from now.