Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish
- Second time: Edinson Volquez, Jared Burton, Bill Bray
- Third time: Nick Masset
I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K. The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.
Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts. A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K). Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him. The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.
If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM. Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM. GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell
Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell. Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons. Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.
In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates. He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty. He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease. No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.
Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September. He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities. Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways. It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years. Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.
For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market. That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign. For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration. So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not. Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell?
Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
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Heath Bell 56% (3,966)
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Ryan Madson 44% (3,086)
Total votes: 7,052
Free Agent Stock Watch: Freddy Garcia
Among free agent starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2011, C.J. Wilson, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle unsurprisingly comprise the top three in ERA. Erik Bedard snags the fourth spot with a 3.62 ERA, the bigger surprise being the lefty's health rather than his performance. But just a hair behind Bedard in the free agent ERA rankings is a man who had to sign a minor league deal in late January: Freddy Garcia.
After the 2006 season Garcia had tallied 200+ innings in six consecutive years. Seeking a front-rotation arm, Phillies GM Pat Gillick acquired Garcia from the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez at the Winter Meetings that year. Biceps soreness set in that spring for Garcia, who began the year on the DL. The big righty threw 56 innings for the '07 Phillies, at which point a serious shoulder injury was diagnosed. He had surgery in late August, and became a hot commodity as a free agent a year later. Garcia gave the '08 Tigers three September starts and planned to participate in the Venezuelan Winter League to further prove his health.
Garcia's shoulder flared up at that point, but he was healthy enough to land a $1.5MM base salary with $6.5MM in incentives from the Mets in January of '09. Mets GM Omar Minaya convinced Garcia to accept a minor league assignment to begin that season, but he was released by the end of April. It was a low point for Garcia, who signed back with the White Sox in June of that year on a minor league deal. Garcia closed out his season with nine starts for the Sox, pitching well enough to prompt the team to exercise a $1MM option in October.
In 2010 we saw a full season of the new Garcia. The results: a 4.64 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, and 40.7% groundball rate in 157 innings. It wasn't enough to merit a big league deal, so the Yankees signed him to a minor league contract in January and he soon became the favorite to be the team's fourth starter. An August finger injury cost Garcia a few starts, but he ended up with similar numbers: a 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, and 36.4% groundball rate in 146 2/3 innings. If you count a minor league start and a postseason start, Garcia pitched 156 innings.
SIERA says Garcia's skills suggest an ERA around 4.28, rather than his actual 3.62 mark. That's still an improvement over 2010. Garcia slightly improved his strikeout rate, perhaps due to some changes in his mix of pitches. Garcia still profiles as a back-end starter, but his new level of performance should result in a guarantee at least matching the $3MM given to the likes of Brad Penny and Brandon Webb last winter.
Garcia appears to have earned over $4MM this year including incentives, and the Yankees must decide whether to offer arbitration if his fringe Type B status holds up. Perhaps the Yankees can convince him to decline arbitration, as otherwise the process could lead to a $5-6MM guarantee should the pitcher accept. Garcia has shown he can provide that amount of value, but despite the lower ERA this year the market perception would probably put him below a $5MM base salary as a free agent.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler
- Second time: Ian Stewart
- Third time: Ryan Spilborghs
Having signed Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Hammel, Matt Lindstrom, Chris Iannetta, and Carlos Gonzalez to multiyear deals, the Rockies are left with only four arbitration eligible players.
Stewart and Spilborghs are non-tender candidates. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd recently said he's willing to give Stewart another opportunity, implying he will pay the $2MM or so that will be required if the third baseman is tendered a contract in December. Two months remain until the non-tender deadline, however. There is a case to keep Spilborghs at an approximate $2MM despite his 2011 struggles. The 32-year-old had been a very useful fourth outfielder prior to this year and may have trade value at that price.
As a potential Super Two, Fowler projects to fall in the $2MM range as well. Smith, who would be around $2.6MM, has been mentioned as potential trade bait should the Rockies sign an outfielder.
Cot's Baseball Contracts shows the Rockies have about $61MM owed to players under contract for next year. If all four arbitration eligibles are retained, they'd be around $70MM before accounting for minimum salary players. The Rockies would have around $13MM in 2012 flexibility, though as much as $18MM more could be cleared if the team non-tenders or trades Stewart, Spilborghs, Smith, Huston Street, and Ty Wigginton.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals aim to add an outfield bat and a starting pitcher this offseason, which might be enough to vault them into contention in 2012.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jayson Werth, RF: $114MM through 2017, full no-trade clause
- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B: $26MM through 2013
- Adam LaRoche, 1B: $9MM through 2012
- Stephen Strasburg, SP: $3MM through 2012
- Yunesky Maya, SP: $4MM through 2013
- Bryce Harper, OF: $3.15MM through 2015
- Sean Burnett, RP: $2.55MM through 2012
- Anthony Rendon, Matthew Purke also on Major League deals
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Tyler Clippard, RP: $1.7MM
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP: $1.8MM
- John Lannan, SP: $4.8MM
- Michael Morse, 1B: $3.7MM
- Doug Slaten, RP: $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Tom Gorzelanny, SP/RP: $2.8MM (non-tender candidate)
- Jesus Flores, C: $800K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Ivan Rodriguez (unranked C), Jonny Gomes (unranked LF), Rick Ankiel (unranked CF), Todd Coffey (unranked RP), Livan Hernandez (unranked SP), Chien-Ming Wang (unranked SP), Alex Cora (unranked IF), Laynce Nix (unranked LF)
It's about time the Nationals become a bona fide contender. The heart of the batting order can be elite with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth. The rotation has front-end arms in Strasburg and Zimmermann, even if neither is a horse yet. The back end of the bullpen is in place too, with Drew Storen, Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez. This is the foundation of a playoff team, but GM Mike Rizzo must make several more significant acquisitions to make the Nationals a contender in 2012. Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "I think we're an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division."
If Strasburg and Zimmermann combine for, say, 350 regular season innings in 2012, it'd be ideal to make up that deficiency with an innings-eating ace. Obviously, those are in high demand. Free agents C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson fit the bill, while James Shields would be a high-end trade target. In the next tier, potentially available starters such as Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brett Myers could gobble up 200 innings at a respectable ERA. I don't like the idea of trading Lannan; the Nationals need the innings he could provide as a reasonably-priced fourth starter. Catcher Jesus Flores represents more expendable trade bait, though his value is at a low point.
Assuming they believe in the second-half performance of shortstop Ian Desmond, the Nationals are in good shape in the middle infield and at catcher. Center field continues to represent the biggest up-the-middle question for the club. Rizzo could renew talks for Twins center fielder Denard Span, who is potentially signed through 2015. Otherwise, Rizzo could go for a stopgap solution like B.J. Upton or Coco Crisp and keep Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the back of his mind as future free agent possibilities. Using Werth in center is another option, at least in the short-term.
Agent Scott Boras will surely try to sell the Nationals on the idea of signing Prince Fielder for first base and using Morse in left field. Fielder doesn't gel with the team's primary short-term or long-term needs. They have a $9MM commitment with first baseman LaRoche next year and impending extension talks for Zimmerman. Committing $100MM to C.J. Wilson would be one thing, but Fielder could require twice as much.
One more item on the Nationals' to-do list is to name their manager for 2012. Davey Johnson is widely expected to keep the job, but the team has until the end of the month to decide.
Are the Nationals looking to go all-in for 2012, or just make marginal improvements and let Bryce Harper and other talented young players close the gap whenever they're ready? A healthy bump to a $100MM payroll would give the team $40MM+ in 2012 flexibility, enough for two starting pitchers and an outfielder, which could result in the Nationals' first playoff appearance.
Quick Hits: Votto, Anderson, Red Sox, Dodgers
Links for Sunday evening as the Brewers have jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS..
- The Reds need to ask themselves if they believe that they can pay Joey Votto a market-value contract after 2013, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. If the Reds don't believe that they can pay him, Olney writes that history says that they should move him between now and July 31, 2012.
- The Red Sox could use Lars Anderson as a trade chip this offseason, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal. The 24-year-old first baseman is stuck behind Adrian Gonzalez and MacPherson identifies several teams who would be interested in the youngster. Anderson was nearly shipped to the Athletics in a deal for Rich Harden in July.
- Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times doesn't expect to see the Dodgers make many changes this winter. If Ned Colletti & Co. don't sign a bopper in free agency, that leaves trading for a big bat and the club doesn't have much to offer in return.
- Tigers closer Jose Valverde represents yet another ex-Astros player achieving success elsewhere, writes Stephen Goff of Examiner.com.
- Brewers right-hander Shaun Marcum sees a bright future for his former teammate, Cardinals lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski. Marcum, who will start Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, played with Rzepczynski in Toronto.
MLBTR Originals
Here's a look back at some of the analysis and reporting MLBTR's writing team delivered this week..
- Seven years ago this week, the Tigers claimed Colby Lewis off of waivers from the Rangers, writes Mike Axisa. Lewis is set to start Game Three for Texas on Tuesday but was little more than a failed prospect back then.
- We asked MLBTR readers what they think Jorge Posada will do this offseason. 68% of you think that he'll retire, 24% say that he'll sign elsewhere, and just 9% see him coming back to the Yankees.
- With an aggressive approach in free agency and some successful midseason trades, GM Dave Dombrowski turned the the Tigers into a playoff team. Ben Nicholson-Smith took a look at how the Tigers acquired their newest additions.
- The MLBTR GM Candidate series continued with a look at Logan White, the Dodgers’ assistant GM of scouting.
- This week we kicked off the Offseason Outlook for the Twins, Mariners, Cubs, Marlins, and Astros.
- Mike Axisa rounded up the best baseball analysis from around the web in this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- If you missed out on our weekly chat, you can check out the transcript right here.
- Service time could be a factor in whether or not Matt Moore is on the Rays to start the 2012 season, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith.
- Tim Dierkes checked in on the stock of free-agent-to-be Clint Barmes. If the Astros fail to sign Barmes, he could be a more affordable alternative for the Twins, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, or Giants.
- The best in-season trade made by a playoff team was the Phillies' acquisition of Hunter Pence, according to 42% of MLBTR readers.
- In total, the Rangers obtained nine of the 25 players on their ALDS roster since last year.
- The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years. We asked you how much the lefty's next contract will be worth. Opinions were split but 1,372 MLBTR readers (18%) say that his next deal will be worth $121-130MM.
- The Padres, Cubs, and Nationals were profiled in our Arbitration Eligibles series.
- The fatal flaw with Theo Epstein's disappointing 2011 Red Sox club was starting pitching, which prompted Tim Dierkes to investigate his work assembling rotations.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith took a look at how baseball's newest $100MM players fared in 2011.
- Need a refresher on non-tenders? Don't worry, we got you covered.
- Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. We checked in on them now that the regular season's over.
Cardinals Designate Andrew Brown For Assignment
The Cardinals have designated Andrew Brown for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Lance Lynn, according to Matthew Leach of MLB.com. Lynn, a right-handed pitcher, was tabbed by the Cards in the first-round of the 2008 draft.
Brown posted a slash line of .182/.182/.227 in 22 plate appearances for the Cards this season but he hit .284/.382/.501 with 20 homers in 428 plate appearances for Triple-A Memphis. The 27-year-old spent most of this season at Memphis playing in the corner outfield spots but has plenty of first base experience under his belt as well.
Week In Review: 10/2/11 – 10/8/11
It's time to take a look back at the week that was..
- On Thursday the White Sox announced that they have hired Robin Ventura to be their new manager. The sides have agreed to terms on a multiyear deal that makes Ventura the franchise's 38th manager. GM Kenny Williams says Ventura topped his managerial wish list despite his inexperience as a Major League skipper.
- In a radio interview, Red Sox owner John Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino declined to discuss the Cubs’ request to talk to GM Theo Epstein. However, Henry said that a “certain protocol in this game” generally dictates that teams allow employees to consider promotions.
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail announced that he will leave his position because of family obligations. MacPhail's contract will expire on October 31, when he will officially part ways with the team. Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava and Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings are among the rumored candidates for the job.
- It apears that manager Buck Showalter won't move from the dugout to the GM's office as he loves managing and plans to continue in his current role. There was lots of speculation that Showalter, who has developed a strong relationship with owner Peter Angelos, could become Baltimore's GM.
- Robinson Tejeda elected to become a free agent. The right-hander was designated for assignment by the Royals in May and spent the rest of the season pitching for Triple-A Omaha.
- The Dodgers announced that they've declined club options on starter Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake, and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A. Typically option decisions are announced after the World Series, but Garland and Blake were obvious choices. For Garland, the Dodgers chose a $500K buyout over an $8MM club option. Meanwhile, they chose a $1.25MM buyout over a $6MM club option on Blake.
- Veteran third baseman Eric Chavez is considering retirement. The 33-year-old is "leaning heavily towards" hanging up his cleats after 14 Major League seasons. If this is the end for Chavez, he will retire with a career line of .267/.342/.474 and 232 home runs.
- Jeremy Guthrie has been a steady presence in the Orioles’ rotation for the past five seasons, but they haven’t approached the right-hander about a multiyear deal. The pitcher says he hasn't discussed the possibility with the team since he and his agent brought it up last offseason.
- Jose Reyes says that the Mets haven’t started discussing a new contract with him, but the shortstop hinted that he expects dialogue to begin before long. The Mets have exclusive negotiating rights with the prospective free agent until five days after the World Series ends.
- Ozzie Guillen and Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano reportedly spoke on the phone and discussed the possibility of the hurler joining the Marlins. A source says that nothing is official but a deal could be reached where the Cubs cut the 30-year-old loose and give him the $18MM that he is owed in deferred payments.
- Rockies third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff elected free agency after clearing waivers, MLBTR learned. Word is that multiple teams are interested in signing him to a big league deal.
Quick Hits: Payrolls, Jay, Wilson, Epstein
Here are some links to check out before the NLCS kicks off later this afternoon..
- Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel points out that the somewhat low payrolls of the remaining playoff teams are examples of the importance of drafting, scouting, and player development. The Tigers have the largest payroll (10th), while the Cardinals (11th), Rangers (13th), and Brewers (17th) round out the pack. It's also worth noting that the Diamondbacks rank 25th and the Rays were 29th.
- The progress of center fielder Jon Jay allowed the Cardinals to trade Colby Rasmus at the deadline, GM John Mozeliak told Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, and Octavio Dotel have been key parts of the team's drive to the NLCS.
- Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as a free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.
- A Lakeview, Illinois resident is "99.9 percent sure" that he saw Red Sox GM Theo Epstein at a Starbucks in Lincoln Park, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Boston ownership has yet to acknowledge a report that the Cubs have asked for permission to talk to Epstein.
- The Angels continued their front-office purge by not renewing the contract of player development director Abe Flores, a major league source told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Flores spent four seasons as the team's player development director after spending the previous six as the team's manager of baseball operations.
- No matter what kind of career pitcher Pedro Strop has, the trade for left-hander Mike Gonzalez at the August deadline was worth it for the Rangers, writes Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com.