Olney’s Latest: Garza, Angels, Delgado, Yankees
In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney solicited the opinions of various talent evaluators about yesterday's Matt Garza trade. The general consensus is that the Cubs made the move with the idea of contending in 2011 while the Rays made the move geared towards reloading for the future, somewhat acknowledging that the upcoming season "will be very difficult."
Here are the rest of Olney's rumors…
- Two sources tell Buster that the Angels' final offer to Adrian Beltre was $77MM guaranteed, or $3MM less than the guarantee he got from Texas.
- Carlos Delgado wants to come back, but it'll be very tough to do so when the free agent market features plenty of healthier DH-types.
- The Yankees are seeking a capable back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but there are very few pitchers that fit that description available.
Poll: Greinke Or Garza?
As the reactions to yesterday's Matt Garza trade poured in, ESPN's Keith Law said he believes the Rays received more in return for their young right-hander than the Royals did when they traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers. He explained that Tampa "focused less on position and more on overall value" after saying the exact opposite about the deal Kansas City made (Insider req'd for the last link).
Obviously, the trades are not equal in a number of ways. The Cubs are receiving two young players in addition to Garza, one being Fernando Perez. Greinke, however, is a former Cy Young Award winner and according to WAR, his last three seasons were all better than Garza's best season (2009) by a considerable margin. He does lack Garza's postseason experience though. The pitchers were born less than a month apart, but the Cubs will get three years of Garza while the Brewers get just two of Greinke (at a higher salary).
So, knowing what we know about the players, do you prefer the package of Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi or the package of Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer,Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee, and Sam Fuld?
Which team got a better return for their young right-hander?
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Rays 59% (9,185)
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Royals 30% (4,620)
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The packages are about equal 12% (1,817)
Total votes: 15,622
Danks, Quentin Declined Extensions Last Winter
John Danks and Carlos Quentin both turned down four-year contract offers from the White Sox last offseason, reports Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. Both players were entering their first arbitration year and rather than take the long-term contracts, each agreed to a one-year pact (Danks for $3.45MM, Quentin for $3.2MM).
As it turned out, Danks and Quentin illustrated both sides of what can happen when a young player takes a risk and passes up a long-term guarantee. Danks turned down a four-year, $15MM offer, and thus essentially made a $11.55MM bet on himself heading into the 2010 season. The risk paid off — after a strong performance (3.72 ERA, 2.31 K/BB ratio, 213 IP), Danks has put himself in line for a much larger contract. We heard in November that the Sox were again looking to extend Danks, and such an extension will pay the southpaw a lot more than $11.55MM over the next three seasons.
For Quentin, however, 2010 was a struggle. We don't know how much his four-year offer was worth, and it's possible he was justified in rejecting it if Chicago made a lowball offer to try and capitalize on Quentin's down numbers in 2009. Still, Quentin's .821 OPS last season was far removed from his MVP-caliber season in 2008, he struggled badly in the field and his name has come up in trade rumors since the summer.
"The White Sox still don’t seem convinced that Quentin can stay injury- or stress-free over a full season," Padilla writes. He wonders if the Sox might again try to make a long-term offer to Quentin (at an even lower price) to keep him under control if he breaks out for another big season that would drive up his arbitration price next winter and his eventual free agent price after the 2012 season.
Quick Hits: Garcia, Delgado, Nationals, Rockies
Happy birthday to the Big Cat, Johnny Mize! The Hall-of-Famer was born on January 7, 1913 in Demorest, Georgia. Other notable players born on this day include Jon Lester, Alfonso Soriano, Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez.
Onto the news items….
- A reunion between Freddy Garcia and the Tigers is "possible, though unlikely at this point," writes MLB.com's Jason Beck. Garcia, who made three starts for Detroit in 2008, "is believed to be open" to the idea and Tigers officials at least discussed the prospect, Beck reports. The right-hander appears to be behind at least Jeremy Bonderman and Brad Penny on the club's list of veteran depth options for the rotation.
- Carlos Delgado is recovering from his third hip surgery but still hasn't ruled out a Major League comeback, writes Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.
- The Nationals are counting on a much-improved defense to help them in 2011, reports Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post.
- While the Rockies haven't made any huge additions, their moves to keep their young core players gave them the most successful offseason in the NL West, writes Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com.
- Ed Wade says the Astros might consider acquiring a replacement for Jeff Keppinger if none of their young infielders can fill the backup role in Spring Training, reports Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com says the Indians need to start seeing some production in 2011 from the young players the team received in the Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia trades.
- Frank McCourt met with executives from the comissioner's office to outline his plans for keeping control of the Dodgers amidst his divorce proceedings, reports the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin.
AL West Notes: Young, Sweeney, Angels
Some news items from the western side of the American League…
- Michael Young has said he's open to being a primary DH in the wake of the Rangers' acquisition of Adrian Beltre, but ESPNDallas.com's Jeff Caplan wonders if the career infielder will get "bored" from not playing in the field. Caplan talks to Lance Berkman, who signed with St. Louis in part because he disliked being a designated hitter, about the transition away from fielding.
- As part of an MLB.com mailbag, Greg Johns reports the Mariners ended up receiving cash from the Phillies in the Mike Sweeney trade last August, rather than a player to be named later. From the same piece, Johns also shoots down the idea of Seattle trading Felix Hernandez or signing Jermaine Dye.
- In regards to the Angels' lack of major free agent signings, manager Mike Scioscia said "These contracts just ran away from what our team can do," during an interview on 710 ESPN Radio's Mason & Ireland Show (as reported by ESPNLosAngeles.com's Mark Saxon). Scioscia noted the club might have "some other minor things" in the works.
- Eric Denton of LAAngelsInsider.com wonders if the Angels would be better served by rebuilding and putting "some long term pieces in place for the Mike Trout era."
The 80-89 Win Club
A third of the teams in baseball won between 80 and 89 games last year. None of them made the playoffs, but all of them were within striking distance of a postseason berth. The ten teams have had wildly different approaches to the 2010-11 offseason – at least so far. I've broken the clubs down into three groups, with their 2010 win totals in parentheses and links that send you to the club's offseason transactions summary:
New York Notes: Andruw Jones, Buchholz, Pettitte
The MLBTR team sends its condolences to the friends and family of Ryne Duren, the hard-throwing right-hander who passed away today at age 81. Duren pitched for seven teams over his 10 seasons in the majors, but is best remembered as a Yankee for his role in helping the Bronx Bombers win the 1958 World Series. Duren posted a 2.02 ERA and a 10.3 K/9 rate that season, also leading the league with 20 saves.
Some Yankee and Met-related items…
- The Yankees have "started talks" with Andruw Jones, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, though "nothing's close" between the two sides. Heyman mentioned the Bombers were "considering" Jones a few days ago.
- The newly-signed Taylor Buchholz can double his $600K base salary from the Mets if he makes the 25-man roster and reaches various games played incentives, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
- Also from Rubin (Twitter link), if the Mets do add another starting pitcher, they don't want to pay more than the $1.5MM (plus another $1.5MM in incentives) they paid to sign Chris Capuano.
- ESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews speculates that Andy Pettitte may be holding off on a return to the Yankees due to his pending testimony this summer at Roger Clemens' federal perjury trial.
- The Yankees haven't begun negotiating with their three arbitration-eligible players (Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Boone Logan) yet, reports Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees blog.
- There is "no deal imminent" for Jeremy Bonderman, tweets FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi. The Yankees and Tigers were both connected to the right-hander earlier this week.
Padres Notes: Cantu, Glaus, Catching
You stay classy, San Diego! Here are some items about the Friars…
- The Padres were known to be looking for a platoon partner for the newly-acquired Brad Hawpe at first base, and SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Jorge Cantu and Troy Glaus are candidates, though either is a "remote possibility." Heyman reported last month that the Padres were looking at Cantu and Glaus for their first base opening, and both still make sense given that Hawpe has only played nine games at first in his career.
- In an MLB.com mailbag, Corey Brock writes that San Diego wanted to pick up another veteran catcher this winter, but John Buck's three-year, $18MM deal with Florida raised the price on the entire catching market. For instance, the Padres thought they had a good chance to sign free agent Rod Barajas, who ended up signing a surprisingly high $3.25MM deal with the Dodgers.
- From that same mailbag, Brock says San Diego is looking to add a left-handed bat to come off the bench.
Gary Sheffield Is “99.9 Percent” Sure Of Retirement
Gary Sheffield is "99.9%" sure he's going to retire from baseball, according to a radio interview the veteran slugger conducted with ESPN 1040 in Tampa Bay (and reported on by Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times).
Sheffield was hopeful of a contract with the Rays and met with Joe Maddon last month, though the manager said that the dinner meeting was just an opportunity get to know the Tampa native, not to broach the subject of a deal. Sheffield said he felt a "little disrespected" that the Rays didn't contact him in the wake of the meeting.
The 42-year-old last played in 2009 and posted a very respectable .276/372/.451 slash line in 312 plate appearances with the Mets. If Sheffield did manage to find another contract, you'd think it would have to be as a pinch-hitter or as a DH with an American League club given his -25.9 UZR/150 as a corner outfielder in 2009. If Sheffield retires, his 509 career homers and nine All-Star appearances will undoubtedly garner some attention on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot.
Reaction To The Matt Garza Trade
The Cubs and Rays agreed today on an eight-player swap headlined by right-hander Matt Garza. Here's some early reaction and analysis of the big deal, including news of another team that had an offer for Garza on the table…
- ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription required) loves the trade for the Rays: "they got more for Garza than Kansas City did for Zack Greinke although their package of players is, collectively, further away than what the Royals got." Law had Hak-Ju Lee ranked as the top prospect in Chicago's system and calls the 20-year-old shortstop "the star of the deal" for Tampa Bay.
- The trade is a "slight overpay" for the Cubs, writes Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski, but overall he likes the deal. Pawlikowski also cites concerns about how Garza will fare at Wrigley Field given Garza's propensity for giving up fly balls.
- Kevin Kaduk of Yahoo Sports has no problem with the trade itself, but calls Garza just a "Band-Aid" on the Cubs' problems since he doesn't think Chicago is close to contending.
- Tampa Bay fans won't be pleased to see Garza go, but Erik Hahmann of the DRaysBay blog notes that Andrew Friedman has had success with past unpopular trades.
- Mike Bauman of MLB.com writes that the Rays organization is strong enough to recover from the losses of Garza, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett this winter.
- The Rangers made Tampa Bay an offer for Garza that offered "more 2011 impact," tweets Peter Gammons. The Cubs' prospect package, however, has a "higher longterm ceiling."
- A high-profile trade naturally invites some questions from fans wondering why their clubs didn't make a move for the star player in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that neither the Yankees or Mets contacted the Rays about Garza. Meanwhile, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post hears from Baseball America's Jim Callis that the Nationals simply didn't have the minor league depth to match Chicago's package.