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Padres, Royals Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.

Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.

That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).

Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.

Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth’s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.

Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.

Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.

There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.

Padres Sign Nabil Crismatt

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The Padres have signed Nabil Crismatt, as announced by the right-hander himself on his Instagram page.  Crismatt elected to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Cardinals’ 40-man roster following the season.

2020 saw the 25-year-old Crismatt made his MLB debut, as he tossed 8 1/3 innings over six relief appearances for St. Louis and posted a 3.24 ERA and eight strikeouts against just one walk.  He has also impressed in recent Dominican Winter League outings, with a 2.00 ERA, 8.50 K/BB rate, and 8.5 K/9 over 18 innings.

Crismatt began his pro career as a Mets international signing out of Colombia back in 2011, and he has a career 3.82 ERA, 3.90 K/BB rate, and 9.5 K/9 over 641 2/3 innings in the minors with the Mets (from 2012-18) and Mariners (in 2019).  Crismatt has started 88 of his 167 appearances at the minor league level, with the majority of those starts coming since the start of the 2017 campaign.

While Crismatt’s overall numbers on the farm are pretty solid, he has struggled mightily at Triple-A, with an 8.96 ERA over 85 1/3 innings that seems largely due to an ungainly 2.4 HR/9.  Home runs have (to a much lesser extent) been something of an issue throughout his career, and all three of the runs Crismatt surrendered in the majors last season were via the long ball.  If the Padres can correct or even lessen Crismatt’s problems at keeping the ball in the park, he could be an interesting depth piece for the bullpen, rotation, or perhaps even both in a swingman capacity.

Latest Rumblings On Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer

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The Padres are among the clubs with interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Fansided’s Robert Murray reports, although there’s no indication that the two sides have engaged in meaningful discussions to this point.

Gray’s name has persistently popped up in the rumor mill this winter, and while Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has sought to downplay Gray chatter as a matter of performing due diligence, it’s hard not to place some extra stock in the Gray rumblings amid the backdrop of several cost-cutting moves out of Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley just months after acquiring him in a deadline trade, despite the fact that he pitched well for them and was due a raise on a team-friendly $4.1MM salary. They also cut loose their other primary deadline pickup, outfielder Brian Goodwin, and catcher Curt Casali. Goodwin had struggled in Cincinnati, but Casali turned in a solid 2020 season.

Perhaps most surprising was the trade that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in exchange for righty Noe Ramirez and minor league infielder Leo Rivas. It was a marginal return, at best, on a quality late-inning reliever whose $9.125MM salary isn’t exactly exorbitant. Following both the Bradley non-tender and the Iglesias trade, Krall has spoken of reallocating those resources. He did so again this week in an appearance on MLB Network’s MLB Now (video link):

“I think we’ve done some things to reallocate our resources within the organization, and we’re just trying to figure out what’s the best thing we can do for our organization moving forward,” said Krall.

Some Reds fans may hope to see the team utilize those savings for a run at retaining Trevor Bauer, but that may not be likely. In that MLB Now spot, Krall discussed “adding pitching depth, whether it’s rotation depth with the loss of Trevor Bauer.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added further context today, tweeting that the Reds consider Bauer to be beyond their price range and adding that Bauer “will be pitching elsewhere” in 2021. It obviously takes just one change of heart from ownership to push for a deal to come together, but that’s a rather bleak characterization of where things stand with regard to their chances of retaining the reigning NL Cy Young winner.

Turning back to Gray, the match between the Reds and Padres is a sensible one on paper but perhaps not so much in practice. The Friars thought they were acquiring multiple years of a high-end rotation option when picking up Mike Clevinger prior to the trade deadline, but he’s now sidelined for all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

That leaves a hole at the top of the rotation, but Murray suggests that even Gray’s $10MM salary might be outside San Diego’s comfort zone at this point. Surely, that’s all the more true given that they’d have to trade away considerable young talent to pry Gray away; even if the Reds are seeking to cut costs, it’s hard to imagine them taking a weak return on Gray when the market for starting pitching has generally been a healthy one to this point.

The Padres already owe $86.05MM to the combination of Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Clevinger. They still owe arbitration raises to Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla.

For a Padres club intent on paring back last year’s $150MM payroll to some extent, taking on $10MM in salary might not work unless other payroll can be jettisoned elsewhere. And as Murray points out, there would probably be questions about reuniting Gray with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who coached Gray during an unsuccessful tenure in the Bronx.

Brewers To Sign Luis Perdomo

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The Brewers have a deal in place with righty Luis Perdomo, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). It’s a minor-league arrangement.

The 27-year-old Perdomo had been cut loose recently by the Padres. He’s expected to miss all of the upcoming campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It isn’t clear just yet whether the accord has any special provisions (such as an option) for future seasons. If nothing else, Perdomo will be eligible for arbitration once again at season’s end, so the Brewers could decide to add him to their 40-man roster and tender him a contract if his rehab progresses well.

If he can fully recover from his elbow woes, Perdomo will be looking for a chance to prove that he can deliver consistent results at the MLB level. He has a standout, mid-nineties sinker that reliably produces gaudy groundball numbers, but owns only a 5.19 ERA in his 444 1/3 career frames at the game’s highest level.

A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Offseason, Tatis, Lamet

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) Monday about a variety of topics related to the team’s offseason business, including a continued search for pitching.  However, an in-house star was also discussed, as Preller said that working out a multi-year extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. is “a priority” for the organization.

“I think his situation is a priority and I think we’re in a position to try to line up on a deal,” Preller said.  “I think we’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason, to see if we can do that.”

Tatis has quickly become one of baseball’s biggest young talents over his two MLB seasons, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers over 629 career plate appearances.  He doesn’t even turn 22 years old until January, putting him on pace to receive a potential record-setting free agent contract if he reaches the open market following his age-25 season.  Tatis’ price tag will already begin to rise significantly next offseason, as he will reach the first of three years of arbitration eligibility.

The Padres therefore have lots of incentive to ink Tatis to a long-term deal, and some common ground could be reached given that Tatis has also reportedly expressed interest in an extension.  Locking in a life-changing fortune so early in his career would naturally have appeal to Tatis, and because he is so young, he has plenty of time to land at least one more major deal later in his career.  Signing even a seven-year extension now would allow Tatis to still reach free agency before his age-29 season.

With both the COVID-19 pandemic and potential labor strife next winter hanging over the sport, Tatis could also prefer to get some guaranteed financial security sooner rather than later.  On the flip side, Lin wonders if Tatis and his representatives would perhaps prefer to wait another year before seriously diving into extension talks, since by then there will be more clarity about both the state of public health and how baseball’s financial structure will be altered by a new collective bargaining agreement.

Since most extension negotiations usually don’t take place until later in the offseason, Preller’s more immediate attention will be focused on adding new pieces to the roster.  The GM said the club is continuing to explore pitching options, and has “looked at it both ways,” in terms of adding either front-of-the-rotation ace type or perhaps more of a mid-rotation type.

“I think it’s just kind of going to depend on the individual pitcher that’s involved, and then obviously, what potentially we’d have to do from a money standpoint or from a trade standpoint,” Preller said.  “Weighing that in versus what we see the impactability of our own talent and when that will happen.”

Dinelson Lamet’s status will also surely factor into San Diego’s plans, as the right-hander missed the end of the season (and the playoffs) due to biceps tightness, and was undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his throwing elbow.  While Preller noted that the Padres won’t fully know how ready Lamet is until Spring Training, “in terms of the tests that he’s passing right now — all his workouts, picking up a baseball, beginning his throwing program to start the offseason — he’s reporting that he’s in a very similar spot to where he was last year, which is a good place,” Preller said.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/14/20

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Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Padres have signed right-hander Jacob Rhame to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. While Rhame spent time with the Angels organization last season, he didn’t appear in any of their games. Before joining the Halos, Rhame appeared in the majors as a Met in each season from 2017-19, but he could only manage a 6.23 ERA/6.06 FIP with 7.55 K/9 and 4.53 BB/9 in that 47 2/3-inning span. The 27-year-old has, however, been successful in Triple-A, where he owns a 3.73 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 169 innings.
  • The Tigers announced the addition of lefty reliever Ian Krol on a minors pact that comes with an invitation to big league camp. This will be the second Tigers stint for Krol, whom they first acquired from the Nationals in a 2013 trade centering on Doug Fister. Krol became a part of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2014-15, but he was unable to establish himself as a reliable reliever in Detroit. He had a career year the next season as a member of the Braves, with whom he threw 51 innings of 3.18 ERA/2.91 FIP ball and notched 9.88 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9. Things have since gone downhill for Krol, who had a poor 2017 with the Braves, threw only two MLB frames as an Angel in 2018, and hasn’t resurfaced in the majors. He was hit with a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse in 2019 and spent last season pitching independent ball.

Free Agent Notes: Sugano, Teheran, Semien

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The Blue Jays and Rangers are among the teams interested in Tomoyuki Sugano, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They join the previously-reported Padres and Red Sox as known suitors for the 31-year-old. Sugano has spent the past eight seasons with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, where he’s generally been brilliant. He sports a career ERA of 2.32 at Japan’s highest level. Sugano was excellent as ever in 2020, tossing 137.1 innings of 1.97 ball, backed up by a strong combination of 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. The NPB team formally posted Sugano last week, giving major league teams until January 7 to work out an agreement with the right-hander.

Some more notes on the open market:

  • Right-hander Julio Teheran is planning a showcase for interested teams in mid-January, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 29-year-old is coming off a dismal season with the Angels where he allowed 35 runs (including 12 homers) with a 20:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings. Heyman notes that shoulder discomfort may have played a role in those struggles, but Teheran’s peripherals and velocity had been trending in the wrong direction for a few seasons even before the wheels fell off completely in 2020.
  • The free agent market for Marcus Semien is progressing and could reach a resolution in the coming days, Passan further reports. The 30-year-old is one of the market’s more interesting evaluations. After a stellar 2019 effort that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting, Semien had something of a disappointing follow-up this past season. His .223/.305/.374 line matched the worst offensive output of his career. That comes with obvious shortened season caveats, though, as well as a career-low .260 BABIP that looks primed for a bit of positive regression. The Reds and Phillies are the most obvious shortstop-needy contenders, but plenty of teams could move other players (or even Semien himself) around the infield to accommodate his addition to the roster.

Post-Trade Notes: The Lance Lynn Deal

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The Rangers took some heat for not trading Lance Lynn at the deadline this summer, with most onlookers more than a little befuddled that a last-place Rangers club didn’t move its top pitcher with a year and a half remaining on his contract despite widely reported interest. At the time, president of baseball ops Jon Daniels merely indicated that the offers for Lynn weren’t enticing, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal now shines light on the larger reason that Lynn wasn’t moved. Per the report, Lynn would have considered opting out of the remainder of the 2020 season if traded to a club for which he did not wish to pitch. The number of teams to which Lynn would have approved a deal isn’t clear, but that stance obviously tied Daniels’ hands in his efforts to coax an acceptable return out of a trade partner.

Ultimately, of course, the Rangers traded Lynn to the White Sox and landed six years of an immediate rotation replacement, righty Dane Dunning, as well as 2019 sixth-rounder Avery Weems. Now that the trade is in the books, a few more notes on the activity (or lack thereof) surrounding Lynn leading up to the deal…

  • Despite considerable uncertainty in the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, the Yankees weren’t engaged with the Rangers on Lynn this winter, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Lynn seemingly checks plenty of boxes for the Yankees, as he’s been baseball’s most durable arm the past two seasons and would only come with a $10MM luxury tax hit (with just $8MM in actual 2021 salary thanks to a slightly front-loaded contract). Sherman suggests on Twitter that Lynn might have cost the Yankees pitching prospect Clarke Schmidt, who is similar to Dunning in that he’s a Top 100 type of arm who made his MLB debut in 2020 (albeit with a more limited workload and less success than Dunning). There’s no indication that the Rangers actually made that ask, but the two righties are indeed somewhat comparable in terms of age, team control and prospect status.
  • The Padres, however, were in on Lynn prior to his trade to the White Sox, according to Rosenthal and colleague Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Rosenthal notes that the Friars are concerned about the number of innings their rotation can provide in 2021, which makes sense with Mike Clevinger out for the year due to Tommy John surgery and Dinelson Lamet ending the 2020 campaign due to his own arm troubles. As such, it stands to reason that San Diego will continue to monitor the market for other sources of innings, be it via trade or free agency. The Padres already owe a combined $86.05MM to the group of Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Drew Pomeranz, Clevinger, Craig Stammen, Matt Strahm and Pierce Johnson, and they have arbitration deals yet to work out with Lamet, Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla. With needs in the rotation, the bullpen and on the bench, it’s not clear how aggressively they can spend on any one individual piece.
  • The Rangers will monitor Dunning’s workload in 2021 after he missed the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched just 34 Major League innings in 2020, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Dunning estimates that between simulated games at the White Sox’ alternate training site and that seven-start MLB debut, he tossed around 90 frames in 2020, per Wilson. He’ll be on a similar plan in 2021 to that of fellow young Texas righty Kyle Cody, who also missed 2019 due to surgery. More importantly, Wilson notes that Daniels indicated an intent to pursue some veteran starters to add depth to the rotation in the coming months. It’s not likely that the rebuilding Rangers will be in on any of the market’s top names, of course, but there ought to be plenty of affordable names looking for opportunities later this winter.

Padres Sign Brian O’Grady To Major League Contract

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The Padres announced that they have signed outfielder Brian O’Grady to a major league contract. O’Grady cleared waivers with the Rays a couple weeks back and became a free agent.

O’Grady first joined the Reds as an eighth-round pick in the 2014 draft, eventually reaching the majors for the first time in 2019 after posting respectable numbers throughout his time in the minors. O’Grady was especially effective in Triple-A ball from 2018-19, when he slashed .286/.360/.553 with 36 home runs in 649 plate appearances.

Despite his success at the minors’ highest level, O’Grady hasn’t gotten much of a chance to establish himself in the majors, where he has batted .213/.302/.447 with two homers in 53 trips to the plate. After he collected 48 PA with the Reds in 2019, the team traded him to the Rays last offseason. The 28-year-old didn’t factor in much for Tampa Bay, though, and now he’ll try to earn a spot on a Padres club that already has Trent Grisham, Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Greg Allen, Jorge Mateo and Jorge Ona as outfielders on its 40-man roster.

National League Non-Tenders

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With revenue losses expected to result in reduced payrolls around baseball, a larger number of players than usual are expected to be let go by their current teams by tonight’s 7pm CT non-tender deadline.  Some of these players could end up re-signing with their teams for salaries below what they were projected (by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) to earn through the arbitration process, or teams could end up simply opting to explore other options…with many of those options arriving on the market through this same non-tender process.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through the list of National League players who have been let go in this post.

Earlier Non-Tenders

  • The Cardinals non-tendered righty John Brebbia and outfielder Rangel Ravelo, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Brebbia had played a significant role in the St. Louis pen for his first three MLB campaigns but is still recovering from mid-2020 Tommy John surgery.
  • Right-handed reliever Clay Holmes has been non-tendered by the Pirates, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was among those to cover on Twitter. The 27-year-old hurler made it into just one MLB contest in 2020 owing to a forearm injury.
  • The Marlins have decided not to tender a contract to righty Ryne Stanek, Craig Mish of Sports Grid first tweeted. He joins fellow right-hander Jose Urena in departing via non-tender. (Urena had already been designated for assignment.) Stanek, 29, struggled with the free pass in limited action this year but has been a quality, high-strikeout arm in the past and could be an interesting name to watch on the open market.
  • In addition to Shreve, the Mets announced the non-tenders of righties Ariel Jurado, Paul Sewald, and Nick Tropeano.
  • The Mets will not tender a contract to left-handed reliever Chasen Shreve, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. Shreve performed reasonably well in 2020, logging a 3.96 ERA/3.99 FIP with 12.24 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 25 innings, but the Mets will nonetheless move on instead of paying him around $1MM in arbitration.
  • The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Garcia, 31, posted a woeful .200/.279/.250 batting line in 2020, albeit in a tiny sample of 71 plate appearances. In parts of two seasons with the Friars, he slashed .240/.351/.337, but the team opted not to give him a raise on last year’s $1.5MM salary.
  • The Reds have non-tendered outfielder Brian Goodwin, he announced on Twitter (hat tip to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Goodwin, whom the Reds acquired from the Angels over the summer, slashed .215/.299/.417 with six home runs and five stolen bases over 164 plate appearances between the teams in 2020. He was due to earn a projected $2.7MM to $3.6MM in arbitration.
  • The Cubs have told Jose Martinez he isn’t being tendered a contract, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports (Twitter link).  Acquired from the Rays in a deadline deal, Martinez went hitless over 22 plate appearances with Chicago, only reaching base once on a walk.  The 32-year-old mashed for the Cardinals from 2016-18, but delivered closer to league-average production in 2019 with St. Louis and with the Rays last season prior to the trade.
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