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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Tigers Place John Brebbia On 15-Day Injured List

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The Tigers announced that right-hander John Brebbia has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right triceps strain.  Left-hander Bailey Horn was called up from Triple-A to take Brebbia’s spot on the active roster.

Brebbia signed a one-year free agent deal with Detroit in February that will pay him $2.75MM in guaranteed money, plus the Tigers hold a $4MM club option on his services for 2026.  The first few weeks of Brebbia’s tenure in Motown were smooth sailing in terms of pure results, even if Brebbia’s 1.00 ERA over nine innings and eight appearances was undermined by some glaring peripheral statistics.  Brebbia’s BABIP is a measly .143 and he has a 13.2% walk rate, so clearly some good luck was on his side in the early going.

Then again, it could be argued that Brebbia was due a change in fortune following a 2024 season that saw his 3.29 SIERA overshadowed by a 5.86 ERA in 55 1/3 combined innings with the White Sox and Braves.  Brebbia struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 48 2/3 innings with Chicago before catching on with Atlanta late in the season, and posting a 2.70 ERA in 6 2/3 frames after the change of scenery.

Brebbia just pitched in yesterday’s game (a 7-3 Tigers win over the Royals), so his injury must’ve arisen in fairly quick fashion.  In a microcosm of his season to date, Brebbia allowed two walks and a hit over 31 pitches yesterday but escaped his inning without allowing any runs.  The scoreless inning might represent Brebbia’s last bit of action for a while, as even a minor strain likely means more than just a 15-day minimum on the injured list, and a more severe strain could cost Brebbia multiple months.  The right-hander is unfortunately no stranger to long injury absences, as a Tommy John surgery cost him all of the 2020 season and most of the 2021 season, plus he had a stint on the Giants’ 60-day IL in 2023 due to a lat strain.

Beau Brieske was just placed on the Tigers’ 15-day IL yesterday due to ankle inflammation, so Detroit is suddenly down two members of its bullpen in as many days.  This season’s version of “pitching chaos” has seen the Tigers unexpectedly send presumptive closer Jason Foley (who is now injured) to Triple-A to begin the season, and elevate newly-signed veteran Tommy Kahnle into the closer’s role.  The results have still been there since Detroit’s 3.36 bullpen ERA is the tenth-best in the majors, though the relief corps ranks closer to the bottom of league in terms of strikeouts.

The injuries have led to Horn getting his first taste of the Show this season, and he is now lined up to make his official debut in a Tigers uniform.  Horn made his overall MLB debut when he posted a 6.50 ERA across 18 innings with the Red Sox last season, and he bounced from the Sox to the Tigers to the Cardinals on waiver claims this offseason, only for Detroit to acquire him back in a trade with St. Louis last month.

Tigers Sign John Brebbia

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The Tigers announced the signing of free agent reliever John Brebbia to a one-year deal with a $2.75MM guarantee. The Icon Sports Management client receives a $2.25MM base salary for the upcoming season and is guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2026. Detroit placed Alex Lange on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot.

Brebbia’s deal includes $2MM in performance bonuses in both seasons — $250K each for 50, 55, 60 and 65 appearances and $250K apiece at 40, 45, 50, and 55 games finished. The ’26 option price can escalate based on his numbers this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone.

It’s a late addition to A.J. Hinch’s middle relief group. Brebbia split the 2024 campaign between the White Sox and Braves. He spent the bulk of the season in Chicago, where he initially looked to be a potential trade chip. He carried a strong 30% strikeout rate and a tidy 5.6% walk percentage over 38 innings into the All-Star Break. A low left-on-base rate contributed to a middling 4.50 earned run average, but he’d held opposing hitters to a .235/.288/.389 showing across 160 plate appearances.

Brebbia had a few ill-timed blowups in the weeks between the All-Star Break and the trade deadline. That tanked Chicago’s chances of dealing him. He continued to struggle into August. The Sox released him towards the end of that month. There was minimal value for them in carrying an impending free agent middle reliever for the final few weeks of the season. Brebbia caught on with Atlanta and tossed 6 2/3 frames of two-run ball over five appearances to finish the year.

The 34-year-old finished the season with an unsightly 5.86 ERA across 55 1/3 innings. His more interesting strikeout and walk numbers led Detroit to give him an Opening Day bullpen job. Brebbia had allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in 2022 and ’23 as a member of the Giants. He fanned 29.2% of batters faced two seasons ago and has a quality 25.9% strikeout rate over his seven-year MLB career.

Brebbia and Tommy Kahnle are new additions to a Detroit bullpen that’ll be anchored by holdovers Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, Tyler Holton and Will Vest. They’re likely to have Kenta Maeda in a long relief role even with Alex Cobb set to open the season on the injured list.

Lange was Detroit’s season-opening closer in 2024. He had a tough time finding the strike zone and was optioned to Triple-A in the middle of May. Lange suffered a lat tear while pitching in the minors and required season-ending surgery in June. Detroit evidently didn’t feel he’d be ready within the first couple months of this season. The IL placement shelves him until late May at the earliest.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Activate Reynaldo Lopez

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TODAY: The Braves officially announced Lopez’s reinstatement from the 15-day IL.  Right-hander John Brebbia was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.

SEPTEMBER 27: Reynaldo López will take the ball for the Braves tomorrow against the Royals, the team informed reporters (X link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He’ll be reinstated from the 15-day injured list before the game. Atlanta will need to option a pitcher to open a spot on the MLB roster.

Atlanta has been without López for a couple weeks because of shoulder inflammation. That was the righty’s second IL stint in as many months. He also missed a couple weeks in August with a minor forearm issue. It’s not especially surprising that he’s battled some injuries down the stretch. López has taken on a significant workload jump in his return to the rotation. He has thrown 128 2/3 innings on the season, nearly doubling last year’s total of 66 frames while working out of the bullpen.

Aside from the injuries, the López signing couldn’t have worked out much better in year one. He has turned in a sparkling 2.03 earned run average. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only rookie phenom Paul Skenes (1.99) has a lower ERA. While López’s peripherals aren’t quite that dominant, his 26.3% strikeout percentage and 8.1% walk rate are solid or better. If healthy, he’d slot behind likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale and Max Fried in a potential playoff rotation. Spencer Schwellenbach has had a fantastic rookie campaign and would be an excellent #4 option.

Of course, the Braves still have work to do if they’re to get into the postseason. They beat the Royals on Friday night to pull to 87-71. The Mets lost in Milwaukee, so the division rivals are tied with four games apiece to play. They have a doubleheader set for Monday. Splitting those would ensure the Braves have the tiebreaker. Both clubs are a half-game back of fifth seed Arizona pending the Diamondbacks’ result tonight.

Braves Select John Brebbia

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The Braves announced a series of roster moves this morning, highlighted by the club selecting the contract of veteran right-hander John Brebbia. To make room for the hurler on the 40-man roster, Atlanta designated southpaw Zach Logue for assignment. Outfielder Eli White was also recalled to the big leagues, and alongside Brebbia will take the two roster spots created by today’s expansion of rosters from 26 to 28 players. Brebbia was released by the White Sox on Friday and evidently subsequently signed with the Braves on a minor league deal, but the move had not been reported prior to Atlanta’s announcement this morning.

Brebbia, 34, signed a $5.5MM guarantee with Chicago over the offseason. The partnership between the two sides did not go well, as after a strong first month with the club the right-hander was blown up to the tune of a 10.50 ERA in the month of May. While Brebbia’s numbers improved from there, he was still a well below average reliever by the results over the summer with a 5.40 ERA in 30 innings of work since the calendar flipped to June. With that being said, Brebbia’s peripherals do offer some room for optimism, particularly following that disastrous month of May.

Looking at his full season numbers, Brebbia has struck out a solid 26.9% of batters faced while walking 7.9% of opponents. That big strikeout rate has helped him to post a 3.40 SIERA this year, right in line with well-regarded late-inning arms such as Ryan Pressly (3.39 SIERA) and Carlos Estevez (3.41 SIERA). It’s not especially hard to see why advanced metrics would think Brebbia’s underlying performance has been better than the results would suggest, either. The right-hander’s .333 BABIP is much higher than his usual rate, and his 64% strand rate is shockingly low. Some of that can be explained by an elevated 14.8% of Brebbia’s fly balls leaving the yard for home runs. If Brebbia’s home run rate normalizes down the stretch, it’s easy to see how the veteran can be a valuable piece for the Atlanta bullpen as they look to lock down a spot in the postseason.

Making room for Brebbia on the club’s 40-man roster is Logue, who has spent the entire 2024 season with Atlanta’s minor league affiliates. The lefty has generally put up strong numbers in the minors this year, with a 2.68 ERA and a 23.5% strikeout rate in 90 2/3 innings swinging between the rotation and bullpen in Gwinnett. Those strong numbers this year are somewhat undercut by Logue’s past performance in the majors, however, as the southpaw owns a 6.88 ERA and 5.72 FIP in 68 innings of work at the big league level between the A’s and Tigers since he made his big league debut with Oakland back in 2022. Even so, it’s possible that a club could have interest in Logue on the waiver wire as a versatile depth option who throws from the left side, though any club who claims Logue would be unable to roster him headed into the postseason.

As for White, the 30-year-old was acquired from the Rangers in a cash deal during the 2022-23 offseason and after struggling in a brief cup of coffee with Atlanta this year looked solid in limited playing time with the club this year. In 15 games with the Braves this season, White owns a .261/.261/.522 slash line to go with a .294/.388/.447 line at the Triple-A level. White figures to provide the club with another depth option behind their current outfield mix of Michael Harris II, Jorge Soler, Jarred Kelenic, Ramon Laureano, and Adam Duvall.

White Sox Release John Brebbia

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The White Sox released veteran right-handed reliever John Brebbia after designating him for assignment earlier this week, tweets Vinnie Duber of CHGO Sports. He’s now a free agent.

Brebbia inked a one-year, $5.5MM deal with the ChiSox in the offseason and has had a tumultuous tenure with the club. The 34-year-old righty started the season on a run of six scoreless appearances and had a sharp 3.38 ERA in mid-May before falling into a monthlong slump that ballooned his ERA to 7.71. He bounced back with a dominant five-week run kicking off in early June, wherein he rattled off 18 1/3 innings while allowing just two runs with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio. Since that time, he’s been tagged for another 16 runs in 11 2/3 innings, however.

The end result of that roller coaster is a 6.29 ERA in 48 2/3 innings, although Brebbia’s rate stats are far more encouraging. He’s fanned a strong 26.9% of his opponents against a tidy 7.9% walk rate. Home runs have been a prominent issue for the righty (1.66 HR/9), however, and have typically been at the root of his struggles. That’s been especially true at the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, where Brebbia has posted an ERA north of 7.00 and allowed seven of his nine homers on the season.

While Brebbia’s run with the White Sox won’t go down as an overall success, the right-hander has a solid track record and an encouraging K-BB profile even during his down 2024 showing. Brebbia entered the 2024 season with a career 3.42 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in 299 2/3 innings. He’d pitched in six big league seasons prior to the ’24 season and logged a sub-4.00 ERA in five of them.

Now that he’s been released, the Brebbia can sign with any club. If he lands with a new team on or before Aug. 31, he’d be eligible for the postseason roster, provided he can turn things around in the season’s final month. Any team that signs Brebbia would owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster or injured list. The White Sox are on the hook for the remainder of his 2024 salary.

White Sox Designate John Brebbia For Assignment

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The White Sox announced Tuesday that they’ve designated right-handed reliever John Brebbia for assignment and optioned third baseman Bryan Ramos to Triple-A Charlotte. Their roster spots will go to infielder Jacob Amaya, whom the Sox recently claimed off waivers, and right-hander Prelander Berroa, who’s being recalled from Charlotte.

It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Brebbia, who signed a one-year, $5.5MM deal with the Sox over the winter. He started the season with five scoreless appearances and was generally sharp through mid-May before enduring a massive three-week slump. He righted the ship in early June and went on a dominant six-week stretch where he pitched to a sub-1.00 ERA with elite strikeout and walk rates … only to fall into another, even lengthier slump from which he’s yet to escape. Dating back to July 14, Brebbia has allowed 16 runs in 11 2/3 frames.

All told, Brebbia’s Jekyll-and-Hyde act will result in a grisly 6.29 ERA through 48 2/3 innings. He had multiple stretches where he pitched far, far better than that ultimate mark would suggest him to be capable of, but when Brebbia has been off his game, things have often snowballed in a hurry. He’s had six different relief outings this season in which he’s been tagged for at least three earned runs — including a four-run drubbing in what’ll now be his final outing with the Sox.

Ugly as this season’s results have been, Brebbia has a nice track record overall. In six prior big league seasons, he pitched 299 2/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate between the Cardinals (2017-19) and Giants (2021-23). Brebbia missed the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery and struggled to a 5.18 ERA in his 2021 return (albeit in just 18 1/3 innings). Outside of that short ’21 showing and this year’s implosion with the South Siders, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA every season.

Even with that track record and some legitimately impressive stretches interspersed throughout his 2024 season, Brebbia won’t be claimed off waivers. He’s owed not only the balance of his $4MM base salary (about $688K) but also a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s $6MM club option. If that combined $2.188MM for a four-week rental isn’t dissuading enough, Brebbia would also pick up a $250K bonus the next time he takes the mound, under the terms of his current contract. (He’s already earned $500K of bonuses for reaching 45 and 50 appearances and had identical bonuses available at 55 and 60 games pitched.)

Instead, Brebbia will pass through waivers unclaimed and become a free agent (whether by straight release or rejecting an outright assignment). At that point, a new team could sign him for only the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the majors. The incentives built into his White Sox contract would not follow him to a new team on a new free-agent deal, so that $250K bonus and the option buyout (which is still owed to him by the White Sox) will be nonfactors for Brebbia’s next team.

Even with this season’s poor bottom-line results, Brebbia has whiffed 27% of his opponents and limited walks at a sharp 7.9% clip. A contender in need of bullpen depth might be intrigued by that K-BB profile and take a low-risk flier on the veteran righty. So long as he’s with his new organization on or before Aug. 31, he’d be postseason-eligible.

Mets Considering Tanner Scott, John Brebbia

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The Mets have already added Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to their bullpen this month. They don’t appear to be content with that pair of acquisitions as they remain linked to a handful of relievers.

Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic write that the Mets have discussed a pursuit of White Sox righty John Brebbia. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that New York is one of multiple teams that has engaged Chicago on southpaw Tanner Banks. While the Sox relievers are more middle innings or setup options, FanSided’s Robert Murray suggests the Mets have also shown interest in top rental closer Tanner Scott.

Brebbia and Scott are both very likely to land elsewhere tomorrow. They’re each impending free agents on last place teams. Brebbia’s contract contains a $6MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout, but it’s fair to presume that will not be exercised by both parties. The Sox righty is playing this season on a modest $4MM deal.

While he owns an underwhelming 5.71 earned run average, Brebbia has more intriguing peripherals. He has fanned almost 30% of batters faced against a tidy 6.6% walk percentage. A lofty .346 average on balls in platy against him is the primary reason for his disappointing run prevention mark. The bat-missing ability should get him a middle relief spot on a contender.

Banks is a less clear trade candidate because he’s controllable for the foreseeable future. Yet he’s already 32 years old on a Sox team at the nadir of a rebuild. It’s unlikely that Banks is playing a meaningful role the next time the White Sox are in contention. He’s having a solid ’24 season, fanning nearly 27% of opposing hitters against a 7.3% walk rate. Banks has logged 48 innings of 4.13 ERA ball. He’s still two seasons away from qualifying for arbitration.

Scott is a much bigger name and would be tougher to land. The hard-throwing southpaw is on the radar of most contenders. He’s striking out 29.1% of opposing hitters with a sterling 1.18 ERA across 45 2/3 frames for the Marlins. Scott has locked down 18 of 20 save chances.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein

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While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman’s services.  The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.

Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season.  Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle.  He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.

The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate.  However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.

The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025.  The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.

Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth.  For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.

It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse.  Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year.  He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.

Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers.  In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers.  With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.

The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined.  Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.

In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters.  Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem.  Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.

White Sox Open To Offers On Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet

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The White Sox are baseball’s worst team by a long shot and seemed to acknowledge that likelihood even before the season began when they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres in spring training. San Diego is already reportedly interested in yet another Sox pitcher, lefty Garrett Crochet, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Sox are open to offers not only on Crochet but on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Passan categorizes the ChiSox as “open for business” and lists Robert, Crochet, Erick Fedde and virtually all of the team’s short-term veterans as players who could be moved between now and the trade deadline.

Fedde, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mike Clevinger, John Brebbia, Tim Hill and other players who aren’t signed long-term — Fedde is signed through next season, the others are all free agents this winter — all stood as obvious trade candidates to begin with. I wrote about Fedde’s trade candidacy for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. DeJong recently said on 670 The Score in Chicago that he and Pham both fully expect to be traded. That anyone from that group is viewed as likely to change hands is only logical.

Names like Robert and Crochet being available is far less certain, even for a rebuilding club like the Sox, given the amount of club control each has remaining. In Robert’s case, he’s signed through the 2027 season in the form of a $12.5MM salary this season, a $15MM salary in 2025 and a pair of club options valued at $20MM apiece (both with a $2MM buyout). Crochet entered the 2024 campaign with three years of big league service, meaning he’s in his first arbitration season and has another pair of seasons of club control beyond 2024.

It bears emphasizing that the Sox being “open” to offers or “willing to trade” either player is far different from the team actively shopping said players. That open-minded approach is also far from a guarantee that either will be moved. The substantial control remaining beyond the current season means Chicago GM Chris Getz will set an enormous asking price on both players, and both will still retain tremendous trade value into the offseason and even into next year’s deadline if a deal doesn’t come together this summer.

Robert, still just 26 years old, returned from the injured list yesterday after an absence of nearly two months. He suffered a Grade 2 strain of his hip flexor early in the season and was sidelined for the bulk of April and the entirety of May. He wasted little time in reminding the type of impact he brings to a game, going 2-for-4 with a homer in his return effort. The Cuban-born five-tool standout has played in only eight games and taken just 33 plate appearances this season but carries a .250/.273/.594 batting line with three homers.

Last year saw Robert take his always tantalizing game to new heights. The dynamic center fielder stayed healthy for a career-high 145 games and posted a stout .264/.315/.542 batting line with a career-high 38 home runs, 36 doubles, a triple and 20 stolen bases (in 24 tries). Robert ranked in the 84th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast, and was among the league leaders in barrel rate. He’s a premium outfield defender with plus range and an above-average arm — evidenced both by gaudy Statcast percentile rankings and by career marks of +13 Defensive Runs Saved and +24 Outs Above Average in 3116 innings of work.

Durability and an over-aggressive approach at the plate are the primary knocks on Robert, who is two months into his fifth MLB season and already has five career IL placements for injury (plus another shorter stay on the Covid-related injured list). Robert played in 56 of 60  games during his rookie showing in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but he logged just 68 and 98 games in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and he could finish the 2024 season with fewer than 100 games played as well, thanks to one already lengthy absence. He’s now had significant strains of his left and right hip flexors, in addition to an MCL sprain and a wrist strain in his career.

In terms of Robert’s approach at the plate, the results are strong so it’s hard to be too critical. But Robert rarely walks (career 5.3%) and chases pitches off the plate more than nearly any player in the sport. Since his 2020 debut, only Salvador Perez, Harold Ramirez and Javier Baez swing at more balls out of the strike zone than Robert’s massive 46.3% (at least among qualified hitters). His 54.6% contact rate on such swings is well below average, and his career 83.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple points south of par. It hasn’t led to an exorbitant strikeout rate just yet — Robert has fanned in 25.5% of his career plate appearances — but it’s a less-than-ideal trend that could worsen if Robert loses what Statcast currently measures as elite bat speed (seventh fastest in the majors, on average).

There’s little precedent for a player of this quality with this level of affordability and team control being traded. Robert is owed just under $8MM through season’s end as of this writing plus another $45MM over the next three seasons. Three-and-a-half years of an MVP-caliber talent at a maximum rate of $63MM is a raucous bargain by today’s contractual standards. Teams may be wary of Robert’s injury history and free-swinging ways, but he’s signed for the remainder of his 20s and would be a legitimately franchise-altering deadline acquisition if a team can put together an impressive enough trade offer. Robert might not quite command the type of haul the Padres sent to the Nats for Juan Soto a couple years back, but he’s closer to that level of value than the standard deadline trade candidates. Getz alluded to as much in the offseason, calling Robert “one of the best players in baseball” and noting that he was a “difficult player to trade.”

There are similarities, in terms of trade value, when it comes to Crochet. It’s rare to see a high-end pitcher with two and a half seasons of club control traded at the deadline. Crochet is extra appealing given that his injuries and former role in the bullpen have tamped down his first-year arbitration price. He’s being paid only $800K this season. He’ll be due a pair of notable raises in each of the next two offseasons but still isn’t likely to command even $15MM in salary over those two years.

The 24-year-old Crochet’s transition from reliever to starter hit a brief snag with a trio of rough outings in mid-April, but he’s on an absolute tear right now and looks the part of a frontline starter, as one might expect for a former first-round talent who has long been touted to have ace upside. In 13 starts, Crochet is sitting on a 3.49 earned run average with vastly better fielding-independent marks (2.87 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). That’s due largely to his elite strikeout and walk numbers; Crochet has punched out 33.7% of his opponents against just a 5.4% walk rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average 45.9% clip and averaging a blazing 96.9 mph on his heater.

Since that set of consecutive rough outings in April, Crochet has been on another planet. Arguably baseball’s best pitcher in that time, he’s logged a 1.35 ERA with a 53-to-7 K/BB ratio over his past 40 innings. Crochet allowed five, seven and five earned runs in his run of three straight rocky April outings. He’s yielded two or fewer runs in each of his ten other starts this season.

Rival clubs might be wary of how well he’ll hold up over the course of a full season in the rotation. It’s a fair qualm, as Crochet pitched just 25 innings last season and didn’t pitch at all in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year’s 69 2/3 innings are already a new career-high for the lefty, who entered 2024 with only 85 1/3 professional innings total (majors and minors combined). That said, even if there are concerns about Crochet fading down the stretch, there’s considerable long-term upside, as one would imagine the effects of a full starter’s workload will be more normalized for him in 2025 and 2026. If he wears down later this year, he’s also quite familiar with pitching in short relief.

Any trepidation about how he’ll hold up this year hasn’t stopped the Padres from reaching out to the White Sox. They’ve reportedly inquired on the lefty and have strong interest in him, which makes sense given not only Crochet’s dominance and San Diego’s need for arms, but also his minimal salary and the Friars’ relative proximity to the luxury tax barrier. Adding one of the game’s most dominant pitchers while barely even advancing your luxury tax line ought to hold overwhelming appeal for the majority of the team’s highest-spending clubs. At the same time, Crochet’s minimal salary also makes him appealing to small-market clubs with payroll concerns. Short of the innings worries, he’s an ideal trade target.

Because of that, the asking price on Crochet figures to be extreme, just as it will be with Robert. If Getz and his team genuinely make both available and play some bidders against one another, the Sox could genuinely overhaul the entire farm system with this pair of trades — to say nothing of deals involving Fedde, Pham and the other previously mentioned veterans. It’s going to take an enormous package of prospects to pry either player from the Sox, but with widespread mediocrity permeating the National League and leaving few teams in position to truly wave the white flag on the 2024 season, it could be a seller’s market. There’s no salvaging this lost season for the South Siders, but getting one or both of these trades right could wildly accelerate their rebuilding efforts.

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