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Farhan Zaidi Addresses Giants’ Rotation, Posey, Belt

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This morning, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed the club’s priorities ahead of what’s sure to be a busy offseason (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Zaidi made clear the team regards its starting rotation as its “number one priority.” The Giants’ president also effectively confirmed they intend to bring back Buster Posey (by at least exercising his $22MM club option) and hope to re-sign Brandon Belt for what would be his twelfth season in San Francisco.

That the Giants intend to focus their offseason attention on addressing their needs in the rotation comes as no surprise. Presuming they pay Johnny Cueto’s $5MM buyout rather than pick up his $22MM option, four of the five members of a group that led the club to a 3.44 rotation ERA (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Cueto) are set to hit free agency. Only breakout star Logan Webb, who won’t reach free agency until at least 2026, remains under team control.

Zaidi made clear he hopes to bring back at least some of this year’s rotation, stating that “we want to keep as much of this group together as we can,” but he’ll face stiff competition for several of the arms in question. Gausman figures to be among the top starters on the market (alongside Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman) and won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer that might have scared off some suitors after he accepted the Giants’ QO last winter. DeSclafani (who made $6MM in 2021) and Wood ($3MM) are each in line to land much bigger salaries moving forward after each posted a bounceback year in his first season in the Golden City.

Zaidi’s confirmation that the club plans to keep Posey in the mix for 2022 is similarly unsurprising after the longtime Giants backstop put up a .304/.390/.499 line in 2021 after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club’s intention to either pick up Posey’s 2022 option or sign him to an extension had also already been reported in August by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but Zaidi’s comments reiterate the commitment of Giants’ brass to their franchise catcher. Still, as Posey will be entering his age-35 season, any extension is likely to be on the shorter side, perhaps similar to the two-year pact reached with shortstop Brandon Crawford in June.

Belt put up a similarly excellent .274/.378/.597 line in 2021 (albeit in only 381 plate appearances), so the club will likely face some competition in re-signing the first baseman from two of its three 2010’s title teams. Zaidi told reporters today he’d already been in dialogue with Belt’s representation before the season’s end and they still hope to re-sign him.

After a 107-win season that ended in heartbreaking fashion, the Giants’ desire to run it back with a similar squad is certainly understandable. The Giants have largely bucked the youth wave sweeping the game, and whether or not manager Gabe Kapler can deliver the mix-and-match lineup magic of 2021 for another year remains to be seen. Crucially, so does their ability to bring back the bulk of a rotation that put them in position to lead the big leagues in wins.

David Stearns May Have Vesting Option For 2023

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As the Mets continue their search for a new president of baseball operations, they may have to change tack, according to Andy Martino of SNY. It has long been reported that the top tier of their preferred candidates included Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. Martino reports that the Mets’ confidence of landing any of the three is apparently low, leading to them consider a change of strategy and targeting younger executives.

Stearns, the youngest of the group at 36, has had his name connected to the Mets in rumors for a while now, as it was widely believed the Manhattan native was entering the last year of his contract with the Brewers. However, Martino says it is “now believed” that the club has a vesting option for his services for 2023. It’s unclear what conditions need to be met for the option to vest, but that is a noteworthy development, if true. As Martino himself notes, this changes the calculation of how much leverage the Mets would have to compel Milwaukee to allow negotiations to take place. Many have speculated that the Brewers could allow Stearns to consider outside opportunities because he is nearing the end of his contract. But if that is not actually the case, it makes it less likely that they would be open to such a scenario.

Dodgers’ assistant general manager Brandon Gomes, 37 years old, has already been reported to be one of those under consideration, though Martino reports that the Dodgers could promote him to general manager in order to keep him from taking a GM job with the Mets. Martino also floats Brewers general manager Matt Arnold and Giants general manager Scott Harris as those that “could be in the mix.”

Players Recently Electing Free Agency

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As the offseason gets underway, players around baseball continue to elect minor league free agency.  While the threshold for big league free agency (six-plus years of Major League service time) is well known, there are several methods of qualifying for minor league free agency.  The most common criteria: players with 3+ years of MLB service time who have been outrighted off their teams’ 40-man rosters this season, players who have been outrighted off a 40-man roster multiple times in their career, or unsigned players not on a 40-man roster who have spent parts of at least seven seasons on a minor league roster or injured list.

Each of these players has recently hit the open market in the last few days, according to the official transactions pages for both Triple-A East and Triple-A West.

Yankees Have Options With Joey Gallo

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Joey Gallo has long been one of the most inconsistent stars in baseball. If you see him on the right day, he’s a surefire MVP, a towering power hitter with surprising range in the outfield. He looks like a designated hitter, but he can passably cover centerfield.

See him on the wrong day, however, and you’ll be surprised to hear that he ever makes contact (36.9 percent career strikeout rate). He can seem passive at the plate, and when you see his sub-Mendoza-line batting average come across your TV screen, you may wonder why he’s even in the lineup.

For 58 games, the Yankees got a much heavier dose of Gallo version two as he slashed .160/.303/.404 in 228 plate appearances with a 38.6 percent strikeout rate. He did hit 13 home runs with a .245 ISO, but Yankees fans might be wondering if he’s worth the $10.2MM he’s projected to make in his final season before free agency. Joel Sherman of the New York Post explores some trade possibilities for Gallo, should the Yankees look that way this winter.

It would be a tough turnaround to flip Gallo, as they almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get as much as they gave up to get him. Besides, the short porch in Yankee Stadium still offers a tantalizing advantage for Gallo over a full season. Had he played the entire year in New York, public sentiment might be different. For the year, Gallo posted 3.5 fWAR with a .199/.351/.458 line with 38 home runs and 90 RBIs. Though you might not love the shape of it, those are solid bottom-line numbers.

In all likelihood, the Yankees hold onto Gallo for the final season of his contract. Despite their relative health this season, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton still come with a lengthy injury history, and Gallo provides significant power/patience insurance for a lineup that faltered at times.

If they do want to move him, however, they could start with the clubs that explored a trade for him at the deadline. Sherman provides that list: the Rays, White Sox, Braves, Brewers, Giants, Padres, and Phillies. The list of teams would almost certainly grow if the Yankees put him out there this winter. There’s a deal out there for the Yankees if they want it, but Gallo version one might still be the guy the Yankees want and need in the middle of their order.

Postseason Injury Notes: McCullers, La Stella, Belt, Watson

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Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. departed after four frames yesterday, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the contest that the decision was prompted by the right-hander informing the team of some tightness in his right forearm. Pitching coach Brent Strom said after the game (video link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that McCullers acknowledged some elbow tightness, but Strom added that he’s remaining “optimistic” that the issue won’t prove to be major. McCullers, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others that he doesn’t believe the issue to be ligament-related. The club will surely evaluate him in the coming days as it determines whether McCullers will be able to contribute to the rotation for their ALCS showdown against the Red Sox.

A couple more key injury scenarios to monitor as the postseason field narrows…

  • Giants infielder Tommy La Stella exited last night’s game with the same Achilles discomfort that has plagued him for the past several weeks, manager Gabe Kapler said after the game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Despite the ongoing issue, La Stella is expected to be ready to play for tomorrow’s winner-take-all Game 5, per Kapler. There’s an argument to be made for swapping La Stella out for a healthier Thairo Estrada, but removing La Stella from the NLDS roster would also render him ineligible to play in the NLCS. La Stella has three singles in eight at-bats, plus a pair of walks, thus far in the NLDS against the Dodgers. He hit .250/.308/.405 through 242 regular-season plate appearances during the first season of a three-year contract with the Giants. As it stands, the Giants also have Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores as potential options at second base.
  • The Giants are also seeing progress from injured first baseman Brandon Belt and left-hander Tony Watson, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter links). Belt, still hoping to return from a fractured left thumb at some point during a potential NLCS or World Series run, took grounders and made some throws yesterday. Any throwing is of some note, given that the fracture is in his throwing hand. Meanwhile, Watson tossed a bullpen session yesterday that went well enough for the Giants to believe he’ll be ready to return for the NLCS, should they qualify. Watson has been out since late September due to a shoulder strain. The 36-year-old pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings in his second stint as a Giant after being acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline.

Giants Notes: Bryant, Watson, Wood

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As the Giants do battle in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Kris Bryant will be manning first base. Before the game, the versatile Bryant offered John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle a positive review of his time out west, drawing comparisons to the fun, winning culture cultivated during the Cubs’ 2016 playoff run and suggesting openness to a longer-term arrangement. Whether there’s enough mutual interest in a reunion will likely come down to dollars, but this endorsement will only serve to intensify reunion rumors between Bryant, a West Coast native, and San Francisco in the months ahead.

A couple other notes out of the Bay Area…

  • Left-handed reliever Tony Watson is working his way back from a shoulder strain in hopes of returning to a potential Giants’ NLCS roster. The veteran acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic however that he may be running out of time. Advancing past the Dodgers is the Giants’ chief objective at the moment, but if they do just that, it would be a boon to their pitching staff if Watson returned. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Angels, Watson dominated for the first-place club down the stretch— in 26 appearances he produced a stingy 4.4% walk rate, a sub-3 ERA (140 ERA+), and was among the best in the league at limiting hard contact.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group meanwhile offered some insight into another barrel-dodging left-hander. Alex Wood spoke to Hoornstra about his decision to sign with the Giants this past offseason after securing a ring with the Dodgers during last year’s campaign. Wood spoke glowingly of his time in LA but cited his relationship with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and a clearer path to consistent starts as a reason to move on. Signed to a one-year, $3MM contract, Wood’s performance has been one of several unmitigated successes for the upstart Giants this year. Boasting above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates of 26%, 6.7%, and 50%, Wood helped his club across 26 starts to win the NL West by the thinnest of margins. His 3.83 ERA looks sustainable in the eyes of advanced metrics, a factor likely to play into yet an even more competitive offseason for the starter’s services.

Brandon Belt, Johnny Cueto Not On Giants’ NLDS Roster

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The Giants announced their National League Division Series roster this morning, with first baseman Brandon Belt and right-hander Johnny Cueto representing the most notable omissions. Belt’s absence was entirely expected, as he sustained a fracture in his thumb less than two weeks ago — an injury that initially came with a roughly four-week recovery period. He’s hoping to be able to return if the Giants advance to the NLCS, though there’s no certainty he’ll be able to do so. Cueto’s omission is not injury-related, but he wasn’t slated to make a start in a best-of-five series so the Giants will instead opt for 14 position players and 12 pitchers.

Here’s the roster they’ll carry into their date with their archrival Dodgers…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

There’s no sugar-coating what a tough loss it is for the Giants to be without Belt, who has not only enjoyed a resurgence but has produced at previously unforeseen levels during his age-33 and age-34 seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Belt has been the third-best hitter in all of baseball, by measure of wRC+ (163), trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in that time (min. 500 plate appearances). In his past 560 trips to the plate, Belt has turned in an outrageous .285/.393/.595 batting line and connected on 38 home runs and 27 doubles. Each of Flores, Ruf and Wade has seen time at first base for the Giants this season, and Bryant is certainly capable of slotting in at the position as well.

It’s possible that Cueto could be added back to the NLCS roster — a best-of-seven set that could include games on three consecutive days and thus increase the importance of adding some length to the pitching staff. While it hasn’t been one of Cueto’s best seasons, the 35-year-old posted solid results in 22 appearances (21 of them starts). The two-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up tallied 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with an even 20 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 6.1 percent walk rate. He’s in the final season of a six-year, $130MM contract that contains a $22MM club option with a $5MM buyout.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

Roster Moves: Contreras, Lopez, Detmers, Guerra, Quintana

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Catching on some of the roster moves that took place before today’s slate of games…

  • The Cubs placed Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, officially ending the veteran catcher’s season.  In corresponding moves, Alfonso Rivas was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, and catcher Tyler Payne made his MLB debut today after his contract selected from Triple-A.  One of the few veterans remaining in the wake of the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, Contreras might be either a trade candidate or an extension candidate this winter, depending on the club’s next direction.  Contreras finishes the year hitting .237/.340/.438 with 21 home runs over 483 PA.
  • The Marlins activated Pablo Lopez from the 60-day injured list, as Lopez tossed 1 2/3 innings in an abbreviated start during Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies today.  It marked Lopez’s first game since July 11, as a right rotator cuff strain interrupted a very impressive season for the 25-year-old.  Lopez posted a 3.03 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over his first 101 innings, setting himself up for 2022 as yet another quality young arm in the Marlins rotation. To make room for Lopez’s return to the roster, Miami placed left-hander Sean Guenther on the 10-day IL and moved first baseman Jesus Aguilar to the 60-day IL.
  • The Angels called up left-hander Reid Detmers to start today’s contest with the Mariners, and also activated righty Junior Guerra from the 10-day IL.  Outfielder Taylor Ward heads to the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain while southpaw Jhonathan Diaz was optioned to Triple-A.
  • Jose Quintana cleared waivers and outrighted to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate.  San Francisco designated Quintana for assignment earlier this week, after the veteran left-hander posted a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants.  Quintana was claimed off waivers from the Angels at the end of August, as the Giants looked to add some lefty depth down the stretch.

Giants Activate Jake McGee, Option Thairo Estrada

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The Giants will activate southpaw Jake McGee today, bringing their nominal closer back to the roster in time for a tune-up before the postseason begins next week.  To make room on the roster, infielder Thairo Estrada has been optioned to Triple-A, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com (via Twitter).

McGee returns after two lost weeks due to a right oblique strain. Fortunately for McGee and the Giants, it was on the milder side of oblique problems, so McGee is able to return even before the regular season is out, let alone the playoffs.  After being part of the Dodgers’ World Series team last year, McGee is looking to capture his second ring in as many years, and the veteran lefty has been a major part of the Giants’ success.

McGee has a 2.72 ERA/3.45 SIERA over 59 2/3 innings out of San Francisco’s bullpen, with a 4.2% walk rate that ranks among the league’s best.  That excellent control has helped McGee overcome some hard contact, and with a .228 BABIP, it’s fair to say McGee that had some good fortune behind his 2021 numbers.

Though the Giants are pretty flexible with their late-game relief alignment, McGee has gotten the bulk of save chances this year, with 31 saves in 36 opportunities.  Seven other pitchers have also gotten saves for the Giants this year, with Tyler Rogers leading the second-choice pack with 13 saves, and rookie Camilo Doval stepping up in recent days with three saves.  In short, manager Gabe Kapler will have plenty of bullpen arms to work with as the Giants head into October, as the club is more apt to roll with the hot hand or play matchups rather than deploy McGee in a traditional closer role.

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