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Quick Hits: Astros, Mariners, Haniger, Hardy

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The investigation into misconduct on the part of the Houston Astros continues, with details of commissioner Rob Manfred’s process coming out yesterday. In the newest report from ESPN, Jeff Passan covers similar territory, while also providing further anecdotal evidence of the paranoia that exists in the league around the Astros’ alleged sign-stealing program. One particularly striking example described a starting pitcher who wanted to use a whole new system of pitch calling that would include “jersey pulls, hat tugs, head shakes and glove placements.” The Nationals, for their part, managed to overcome any potential sign-stealing by the Astros during this year’s World Series, though Washington came into those games armed with five separate sets of unique signs to help forestall any extra efforts made by the Astros. They did, of course, manage to win all four games played at Minute Maid Park. While this investigation continues, let’s check in on some player news…

  • The Mariners have an overcrowded, if not star-studded outfield picture coming into 2020, with veterans like Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger, and Domingo Santana competing for playing time with youngsters hoping to establish their MLB credentials (Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop and Kyle Lewis). With Daniel Vogelbach locked into the designated hitter role, they are without that resource for at-bats, not to mention the further overpopulation that comes from rostering the versatile skillsets of Dee Gordon, Shed Long, Austin Nola, Dylan Moore, and Tim Lopes  – all of whom are capable of spending time on the grass. Regardless, GM Jerry Dipoto is not tempted to sell-low and trade Haniger, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns. Despite Haniger’s injury-riddled 2019, Dipoto has not softened on his fervor for Haniger as a cornerstone player. Johns quotes Dipoto as saying, “He embodies almost everything about what we stand for and what we’re trying to set up in our systems and our programs.” Dipoto foresees Haniger returning to right field this season and occupying one of the 2 through 4 spots in the batting order.
  • Lefty reliever Blaine Hardy has begun to attract interest on the free agent market, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Beck names the Twins as one team that has shown interest, though multiple organizations appear to be in on the ex-Tiger. Hardy, 33 in mid-March, was drafted by the Royals, but spent the entirety of his MLB career with the Tigers. After Detroit signed him to a minor league deal following the 2012 season, Hardy would make his major-league debut during the 2014 season, pitching to a 2.54 ERA across 38 appearances. Outside the 70 appearances he made in 2015, Hardy has been up-and-down most seasons, making between 21 and 39 appearances in the majors every year from 2016 to 2019. In all, he amassed 233 appearances across 6 seasons with the Tigers (13 starts in 2018) with a 3.73 ERA/4.11 FIP and pretty even splits between lefties and righties.

Mariners Add Kristopher Negron To Player Development Staff

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The Mariners announced Tuesday that they’ve hired recently retired infielder/outfielder Kristopher Negron as an assistant to director of player development Andy McKay. In his new role, the 33-year-old Negron will assist “in all aspects of player development, including on-field instruction and mentoring minor league players on what it means to be a great teammate,” per the Mariners’ release.

“I’ve had the unique perspective of watching Kris play in high school, competing against him in junior college, and then having him be part of the Mariner family the past few years,” said McKay in a statement announcing the hiring. “During these 15 years, whether it was in high school or the Major Leagues, Kris has earned an unparalleled level of respect from his coaches, teammates, fans and members of the media. We couldn’t be more excited to bring Kris into player development where he will immediately begin to impact our people and our process both on and off the field. This is a great day for the Mariners.”

Negron played in parts of six Major League seasons, including 2018-19 stints with the Mariners. Dating back to his 2012 debut with the Reds, he’s seen time in Cincinnati, Arizona, Seattle and Los Angeles and appeared in 170 Major League games. He also played in parts of 10 Triple-A seasons (14 minor league seasons overall) and appeared at every position on the diamond outside of catcher.

Mariners Rumors: Haniger, Gonzales

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Although he’s coming off a season filled with adversity, Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger remains an appealing trade target around the league, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The Mariners would consider trading Haniger, but left-hander Marco Gonzales doesn’t appear to be available, per Rosenthal.

This arguably isn’t an ideal time for the Mariners to part with Haniger, whom a ruptured testicle limited to 283 plate appearances in 2019. When Haniger did play, he experienced a drop in production, as the 28-year-old hit .220/.314/.463 with 15 home runs and 1.1 fWAR. Before that, Haniger was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most valuable outfielders from 2017-18, during which he slashed .284/.361/.492 with 42 homers and 7.0 fWAR across 1,093 trips to the plate.

As you’d expect, there was trade interest last winter in Haniger. The Mariners elected to hold him instead of selling high, though, and now he likely has less trade value after a difficult season. But Haniger still has three arbitration-eligible seasons left, and he’ll earn a projected $3MM in 2020 – factors that may help make him more intriguing than the best outfielders in this free-agent class (Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson and Yasiel Puig, to name a few).

As things stand, Haniger still looks like the Mariners’ preeminent outfielder, though they do have up-and-coming building blocks in Kyle Lewis and touted prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. While Kelenic and Rodriguez aren’t ready for the bigs yet, Lewis debuted at the game’s highest level in 2019 and impressed – albeit over just 75 PA. Rookie Shed Long also encouraged, though he may be better cut out for second base. Meanwhile, regulars Mallex Smith and Domingo Santana were merely replacement-level players in 2019.

Turning to the Mariners’ rotation, the soon-to-be 28-year-old Gonzales comes with even more control than Haniger. Gonzales still has four years remaining, including one more on the unconventional contract he signed with the Mariners last offseason. He’ll earn $1MM in 2020, which will continue to make Gonzales a steal for Seattle, with which he amassed a career-best 203 innings of 3.99 ERA/4.15 FIP pitching this year. He’s hands down the top starter the Mariners have right now, and there’s little doubt Gonzales would bring back a haul from another club. However, it doesn’t appear trade-happy general manager Jerry Dipoto is in any hurry to ship him out.

Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners

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Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
  • The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.

Mariners Announce Coaching Changes

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The Mariners have unveiled their coaching staff for the 2020 season, with three new faces joining the crew.  Pete Woodworth will replace Paul Davis as Seattle’s pitching coach, as Davis will take on a new position as the organization’s chief pitching strategist.  Carson Vitale will be the team’s new Major League field coordinator, while Jarret DeHart will become the assistant hitting coach, working alongside second-year hitting coach Tim Laker.

All three are internal hires, coming up to the big league club after previously working in the Mariners’ farm system.  Woodward has been moving up the affiliate ranks as a pitching coach for the last four seasons, most recently serving as the pitching coach for Double-A Arkansas.  Vitale has been the Mariners’ minor league field coordinator for the last two seasons.  DeHart has also been with the organization for the last two years, working as the hitting coach for the M’s Arizona League team in 2018 and spending last season as a roving minor league hitting strategist.

The coaching staff as a whole will have a different yet familiar look, as several incumbent coaches will be taking on new roles.  Jared Sandberg, who was the previous Major League field coordinator, will now be Scott Servais’ bench coach.  Manny Acta, who worked as bench coach for the last two seasons and as the third base coach in 2016-17, will be coaching at the hot corner once again, replacing the departing Chris Prieto.

Brian De Lunas is another coach resuming an old position, as he will step into the bullpen coach job that was held by Jim Brower in 2019.  De Lunas was Seattle’s bullpen coach in 2018 before working as director of pitching development strategies in 2019.

Laker and first base/infield coach Perry Hill will both be back in their same coaching roles in 2020.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Seattle Mariners burst onto the scene in 2019, providing us with a valuable reminder about the importance of sample size as they jumped out to a 13-2 start. Those early wins would amount to nearly 20 percent of their total for the year. They went on to play just .374 baseball the rest of the way en route to a 68-94 last place finish, thereby extending their postseason drought streak to an 18th consecutive season (the longest active such streak in North American professional sports). Now that the Nationals won it all in October, the Mariners also hold the ignominious distinction of being the only team in the majors without a single World Series appearance.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $38MM through 2021, $15MM club option in 2022 (becomes player option if Seager is traded)
  • Yusei Kikuchi, SP: $32MM through 2021, if 4-year/$66MM club option for 2022 to 2025 is declined, it turns into a $13MM player option for 2022
  • Dee Gordon, 2B: $13.8MM in 2020, $14MM vesting option in 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade LeBlanc, SP: $5MM club option, declined for $450K buyout

Free Agents

To get a sense of the Mariners 2019 season, consider this: their leader in games played was a designated hitter with a .208 batting average. Or this: where baseball-reference lists their pitching staff, just four starting pitchers populate, one of whom spent the final two months on the Diamondbacks. Or try this: Edwin Encarnacion finished third on the team among position players in bWAR, and he played his last game as a Mariner on June 12. Put another way, the Mariners lost 94 games in 2019 as they entered year one of a self-described “reimagining.”

Executive VP and GM Jerry Dipoto has been hard at work outlining clear guidelines to prepare the Seattle fanbase for another development year in 2020. It’s a rebuild, no doubt, but Dipoto has done a nice job of claiming some high-ceiling youngsters to keep an entertaining product on the field. They’re not quite “reclamation projects” because these players have yet to establish themselves in the majors, but recent acquisitions like Shed Long, Justus Sheffield, Jake Fraley, and J.P. Crawford have been in the conversation as prospects for some time and are now getting a fresh look in Seattle. These “reclamation prospects,” let’s call them, give the fanbase something to root for even as the losses pile up. It would not be surprising in the least to see Trader Jerry target more of these types of projects for 2020.

In terms of their own prospects, the time to shine is nigh for the likes of Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, and Evan White. Lewis got the biggest head start in 2019 by muscling up for a .592 slugging percentage in 71 at-bats as a September call-up. White probably has the highest ceiling, though he’s furthest away and there should be no rush to start the service clock of their 23-year-old first baseman. If this crew with the others above are able to successfully establish a base of major league talent, the Mariners will be in a good place to augment as their best prospects (Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert) approach promotion in a year or two.

Whether that group has a high enough ceiling to challenge the juggernaut Astros and competitive A’s isn’t totally clear. Hence, the second year of this rebuild provides an important window for the Mariners to add more talent. They shipped out most of their marketable vets in last year’s purge, but a few pieces remain that could conceivably move for prospects. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times quotes Dipoto predicting a calmer trade season, but a tiger can’t change its stripes, and with 29 enabling GMs out there ready to deal, take Dipoto’s claim with a grain of salt for now. That said, the offense looks pretty close to set, with Kyle Seager, Crawford, Dee Gordon, and Austin Nola going around the horn and Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, and Mitch Haniger penciled into the outfield. Omar Narvaez and Tom Murphy make up the catching tandem, and probably the most secure unit on the roster. To Dipoto’s point, that lineup doesn’t boast a cavalcade of gems opposing GMs will trip over each other to come claim, but they do have a sort of logjam with Tim Beckham, Dylan Moore, Shed Long, Lewis, Fraley, and Bishop all ready for larger shares of playing time asap. Dipoto will listen to offers, no doubt, but it might take until mid-season to find takers for his remaining vets.

With a good first half, the Mariners will no doubt try to move Santana. He’ll make around $4.4MM in 2020 and will be arbitration eligible for the final time in 2021, so he’s controllable but affordable. A 2019 line of .253/.329/.441 is pretty close to what you might expect from Santana, but he strikes out too much and is borderline unplayable in the field, which will grossly mitigate any potential prospect return. Same for Daniel Vogelbach, who struggled in the second half to the point that the team plans to play him more or less exclusively at DH. Gordon has the name recognition to pop up in trade rumors but not the track record of recent productivity to make him appealing. Seager put together a bounceback campaign, hitting .239/.321/.468, but as the longest-tenured Mariner, he’s also a fine candidate to serve as a veteran bridge to the next competitive group. Besides, he’s still likely too expensive to move (especially since his 2022 option becomes guaranteed with a trade).

On the more plausible side, a healthy Mitch Haniger could fetch a decent return, as could any number of bullpen arms that develop over the first half of the season. Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland helped replenish the pool in that way last trade deadline, and they should probably be open to moving anyone who steps up in the first half this year, including controllable assets like Taylor Guilbeau, whom they received from Washington in the Elias/Strickland deal. Austin Adams is another Washington castoff who could become a valuable trade chip once he is healthy, as might Sam Tuivailala, Matt Magill, or any number of slush pile free agents they add to the mix prior to Spring Training. Dipoto took full advantage of the bullpen carousel last season, and it’s a safe bet to expect him to do so again.

Keon Broxton was a mid-season slush-pile find from last season, but with no offense to speak of, the defensive standout was outrighted at the starting bell of the offseason. Like Broxton, Ryon Healy chose free agency after a disappointing two-year run in Seattle. Dipoto sent Emilio Pagan to Oakland to acquire Healy, a disappointing move in retrospect as the first baseman hit just .236/.280/.423 across 711 plate appearances in two seasons in Seattle.

Speaking of free agency, the Mariners do have some money to spend, and Dipoto will look to add flippable assets, probably in the form of starters on one-year deals. Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, Martin Perez and Tyson Ross might be free agent targets. Depending on the shape of the market, Michael Wacha, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Kendall Graveman could also be names worth exploring. Speculatively speaking, Julio Teheran, who had his option declined by the Braves, could be a name they monitor depending on the price point. There’s anywhere from one to three rotation spots up for grabs in Seattle, depending on how aggressive they want to be with getting Sheffield and Dunn time on the major league roster. In a perfect world, Kikuchi pitches better in his second season stateside while Sheffield and Dunn make themselves indispensable pieces of the 2021 rotation — but there’s probably at least one rotation spot available for a veteran looking to establish value.

Marco Gonzales is the big potential trade chip they have yet to cash in, but every indication points to him being a foundational piece over trade fodder. After pitching to a 3.99 ERA/3.83 FIP across 369 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, the soon-to-be 28-year-old enters 2020 as easily the most reliable member of the pitching staff. If indeed Dipoto hopes to re-enter the competitive fray in 2021, Gonzales provides more value pitching for the Mariners than as trade bait. And given that he is under team control for an additional three seasons after 2020, there’s no real urgency to move him. Especially not after the good faith two-year deal they gave Gonzales as a pre-arb player undoubtedly laid the groundwork for productive negotiations in the future.

Still, the Mariners have almost no money on the books following this season, and given Dipoto’s itchy trigger finger, there’s no ruling out acquiring a player with more than one season of team control. There’s no ruling out anything, really, when it comes to Dipoto. The Mariners are in a great place financially, and Lord knows Dipoto will eventually explore the trade market. For at least the next calendar year, the Mariners have only one priority: add talent to the organization by whatever means necessary so that come 2021, as promised, the framework for a contender is in place.

Mariners Claim Phillips Valdez

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The Mariners announced today that they have claimed righty Phillips Valdez off waivers from the Rangers. He becomes the latest player to be pared from the Texas 40-man roster.

Valdez, who’ll soon turn 28, cracked the majors briefly last year for 16 innings of relief. His fastball-change combination wasn’t exceedingly effective in his first taste at the game’s highest level, as he generated only an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, but Valdez showed that he can induce grounders against the world’s best hitters (53.3%).

Though he debuted in a relief capacity, Valdez has spent much of his time in the upper minors as a starter. It remains to be seen how the M’s will use him — or even whether they’ll keep him on their 40-man roster all offseason long — but he will help pad the Seattle organization’s pitching depth.

Mariners Decline Club Option On Wade LeBlanc

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The Mariners won’t be exercising their $5MM club option on left-hander Wade LeBlanc, the team announced.  LeBlanc will instead receive a $450K buyout and become a free agent.

LeBlanc will hit the open market almost 16 months after signing something of an unusual extension with the Mariners that paid him $2.45MM in guaranteed money (his $2MM in 2019 salary and the buyout of his option) and contained three different $5MM club/vesting options for the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons.  The 2020 option would have vested if LeBlanc had finished the year without an arm injury and at least 160 innings pitched in 2019, though he only managed 121 1/2 frames last season, due in large part to an oblique injury that sent him to the IL for a month.

LeBlanc, who turned 35 in August, posted a 5.71 ERA, 2.97 K/BB rate, and 6.8 K/9 for Seattle last season, a notable step back from the solid numbers in his first year in Seattle (that led to the extension).  Home runs were a particular problem for LeBlanc, who had a 2.1 HR/9.  Eight of LeBlanc’s 26 appearances in 2019 were starts, though he was often utilized as a “bulk pitcher” working after an opener.

AL Notes: Vogelbach, Rangers, Red Sox, A’s

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With the 2019 MLB season officially wrapping up in a matter of hours, much of the league is fully turned toward the upcoming offseason. We’ll track some American League news here.

  • Daniel Vogelbach started 49 games at first base for the Mariners in 2019, but that’s not likely to happen again, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic. Never regarded as an especially strong defender, some in the Mariners’ organization believe Vogelbach’s offensive downturn in the season’s second half (71 wRC+, compared to a 136 wRC+ in the first half) was related to his playing the field more than was ideal. With Vogelbach looking like a pure DH, the Mariners could again turn first base over to Austin Nola, a 29 year-old rookie who slashed .269/.342/.454 in 267 plate appearances down the stretch. Nola’s capable of bouncing all around the diamond, including catching, and is probably best served as a multi-positional piece. Fortunately, top first base prospect Evan White is on the doorstep of the majors and has a chance to win the job early, perhaps even out of spring training, Brock adds.
  • The Red Sox could be facing payroll constraints and have a number of high-priced but effective starting pitchers. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News hears that the Rangers have internally kicked around the idea of pursuing one of those arms in trade. Texas is planning to increase payroll in 2020, after all. While much of that attention has focused on a potential pursuit of Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon in free agency, that flexibility can certainly be put to use in trade as well. Grant speculates that any of Chris Sale, David Price, or Nathan Eovaldi could be targets. Of course, given the caliber of players (particularly Sale and Price) and amount of money involved, any trade scenario would be extremely complex.
  • Speaking of the Red Sox, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe takes a fascinating look at the career of Brian O’Halloran. Part of the four-person interim front office crew (alongside Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Zack Scott) who ran baseball operations between the departure of Dave Dombrowski and the hiring of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, O’Halloran was promoted to general manager at the time of Bloom’s hiring. Speier’s piece, certainly worth reading in full, is rife with quotes from O’Halloran’s colleagues lauding his work ethic and aptitude and details his rise from volunteer to jack-of-all-trades within the organization.
  • The A’s have an uncertain mix at second base, and three young players have a chance to stake their claim to the job next spring, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Sheldon Neuse, Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo should all have a shot at earning the job, assuming none are traded in the coming months. Jurickson Profar may, too, Slusser notes, although it’s possible he’ll end up elsewhere following a disappointing season with a projected $5.8MM arbitration salary. Slusser doesn’t foreclose the possibility of an outside addition, something explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s offseason outlook, but it’s nonetheless notable to hear the organization continues to have faith in its young infield options.

Ryon Healy, Keon Broxton Elect Free Agency

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Mariners corner infielder Ryon Healy and outfielder Keon Broxton both elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment, the team announced. Both players went unclaimed on waivers and will be free to sign with any club this winter.

Healy, 28 in January, underwent August hip surgery that was expected to sideline him for four to six months. That makes the decision to outright him all the more understandable, though he’d have been at risk even if he were healthy. The OBP-challenged slugger spent two seasons in Seattle but managed just a .236/.280/.423 batting line with 31 home runs in 711 trips to the plate after being traded to the A’s in a now-regrettable deal for righty Emilio Pagan. (Oakland also cut bait on Pagan and traded him to Tampa Bay, where he blossomed into one of the league’s best relievers in 2019.)

A clear timetable on Healy’s return to baseball activities isn’t known, but he could draw interest from clubs looking for some right-handed pop this winter. Healy doesn’t walk often (just 4.7 percent of the time) but also doesn’t strikeout at an egregious rate (22.2 percent in his career). He has experience at both infield corners but is best-suited for first base/designated hitter work, making him a bit redundant for a Mariners team that has Daniel Vogelbach on the big league roster and first base prospect Evan White looming in the upper minors.

The 29-year-old Broxton, meanwhile, played on three different teams this season but couldn’t find success with the Mets, Orioles or Mariners. Broxton turned some heads with the Brewers back in 2016-17 when he showed an intriguing blend power, speed and center field defense while hitting .227/.318/.424 (including a 20-20 campaign in 2017). But strikeouts have been an enormous issue for Broxton, who punched out in an astonishing 45.6 percent of his 228 plate appearances this past season. Given that lack of contact, his ensuing .167/.242/.275 slash is hardly surprising.

Broxton has 17 Defensive Runs Saved, a 9.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and rates in at a whopping 34 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, over the past four MLB seasons. There’s little doubt that his glove is outstanding, but his 61.4 percent contact rate is the second-lowest among all MLB hitters in that same span.

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