Shaun Marcum’s an effective pitcher when healthy, but questions about his durability persist as he approaches free agency. One year after reaching the 200-inning plateau for the first time, Marcum has been sidelined for much of the season. The right-hander experienced shoulder stiffness at the beginning of the year, then missed two-plus months with elbow tightness in the middle of the season.
Marcum has pitched well overall, posting a 3.91 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 35.8% ground ball rate in 106 innings. His average fastball checks in at 86.6mph, which ranks 130th among the 136 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings this year. But Marcum never needed an overpowering fastball to succeed in the past, when he held his own against AL East offenses. He uses his fastball far less frequently than most pitchers, changing speeds to generate more than his share of swing and misses. This year he has a career-best 11.3% swinging strike rate.
However, he hasn't pitched particularly well since returning from the disabled list, and has not completed six innings in any of those five post-DL starts. The events of the last few months appear to have reduced Marcum’s chances of obtaining a qualifying offer from the Brewers after the season.
Not only has Marcum spent considerable time of the disabled list, starters such as Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta have emerged, lessening the impact of Marcum's health issues, Chris Narveson's injury, Zack Greinke's departure and Randy Wolf's ineffectiveness. While the Brewers figure to pursue pitching this offseason, they aren't desperate. They may decide against extending Marcum a qualifying offer in the $13MM range, even though it’d the only way for them to obtain draft pick compensation for the 30-year-old.
If the Brewers don’t consider Marcum a $13MM pitcher and suspect that the industry shares their view, it’d likely make sense to let the Turner Gary Sports client leave for no compensation. However, if they believe they could find trade partners for Marcum at that salary, extending a qualifying offer becomes less risky. In that scenario, draft pick compensation would be within reach. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s almost time for the Brewers to decide…
Voted no just so the Jays can re-sign him without giving up a pick — because online polls matter.
did you catch the playoffs last year? guess playoff effectiveness isn’t really a concern for the Jays….
that was a cheap shot but the fact the Brewers should be willing to let him walk after giving up a pretty solid, if misguided, prospect for him should tell you something
Brewcrew needed to go all-in while they still had Prince. Marcum was solid all season, just ran into a hot team during playoff run — small sample size. It was a good trade for both sides.
Trade was good for both sides, however, small sample size doesn’t work for the playoffs as the samples will always be small.
You only play good teams in the playoffs(generally) and 3 starts 9 2/3 innings and 16 runs allowed(14.9 ERA) is really bad. We literally had no chance in the games he started.
I agree he can help a contending team just don’t count on him in the post season.
Well, if we’re going to cherry-pick stats then… Cole Hamels had an 8.03 ERA (sigh) after 3 starts during the ’09 playoffs.
Argue declining velocity, argue peripherals, argue draft pick value if offered a QO, do not argue 3 games against the WS Champs and !ERA.
The sample size is too small because the variables that affect game-to-game performance exist as well in the playoffs. Pitchers streak bad and good during the regular season just as significantly and for longer periods of time. Last year’s postseason performance alone probably can’t predict future postseason performance any better than a guess.
AL East looks to be up for grabs with (here it comes) an aging Yankees squad, the light-hitting Rays minus Upton, Sox/Jays looking to rebound, and the Orioles surely not continuing to defy all logic again next season. Difficult to measure this season bc of all the injuries, but the Jays definitely need some help and Marcum is a huge upgrade. We’ll see after the winter plays out I guess.
You must not watch the Orioles any, nor keep up with what they have ready to start playing at the MLB level.. This team is ready for bear. They have the pitching and only a couple of holes to fill with a MASTER GM who will find more bargain bin replacements to do it, just like his track history shows.
Rays? They never hit this year. Pitching, pitching and more pitching.. They will find several more discarded bodies to play in the field and probably be one of the worst fielding teams again because of it but?? They will have good pitching..
Pitch around Longoria next year and FB down the middle to the other 8…
I don’t see how the Orioles are doing what they are doing, particularly with a mediocre slate of starting pitchers.
I thought the same thing, but their bullpen is amazing. Mediocre pitching with a great bullpen can get you into the postseason with a decent offense. Yankees are the same way. Plus, the Orioles have upgraded their rotation since day 1.
Very timely hitting and just enough pitching.
Funny that nobody questioned the Rays when they used to make the PO with -0- hitting at all and good pitching isn’t it? The O’s have some pitching, while the Rays used to just run Longoria and a bunch of stiffs out there (still do) day after day.
I don’t think there’s anyway somebody is willing to give up a draft pick to sign him, so I wouldn’t give him a qualifying offer.
How exactly is the qualifying offer determined?
Who comes up with the $13M number?
League. Average salary of think it is 20% highest players. new CBA rules.
If his qualifying number will be $13M, I think that Milwaukee should non-tender him and then try to re-sign him at closer to $8-9M.
I think the Brewers could just offer him arbitration. I can’t see Marcum getting a raise beyond $1.5m
i would make a respectable offer to shaun marcum with some incentives since he has had considerable arem and shouldier complivations
Just based upon his ineffectiveness since returning from the DL, and the way he fell apart at the end of the season a year ago, I’m going to say “no.” If he would agree to a two year deal w/ some sort of option maybe on a third, I could see Milwaukee having interest… depending on the price, of course.
I love Peralta’s stuff, ditto Rogers if he can stay healthy, and Fiers looks like a solid middle of the rotation guy. Estrada has done everything and more this year, and you’d have to think Thornburg could be an option next year as well, though I bet he starts the year in Nashville (with Hellweg and Pena – bet one of those three, hopefully two can contribute solidly in 2013). I’d like to see a lefty in the mix – someone other than Narveson, though one would imagine he’d be part of next year’s rotation.
it is about $3 mil above what his ceiling for annual salary should be i’d say. If Randy Wolf was a $10 million man no reason Marcum can’t be. I think a team out there would be willing to sign him, they always do. (see all the terrible 1 year relief pitchers of the past) and if not he wouldn’t be difficult to trade for almost nothing, not that i would mind having him in the Rotation either.
Randy Wolf is not a $10m pitcher. It was an ill-advised contract.
At the time it was the going rate for a league average innings eater. Wolf was league average the first year, above league averge last year and terrible this year. I guarantee the Brewers would do that deal again,even knowing how it worked out this year. Wolf was great down the stretch last year and pitched reasonably well in the playoffs.
If he gets cut loose, would like to see the Yankees get in the mix.
Id really like the Jays to take a run at Marcum.
With the amount of money the Brewers have coming off the books, they can afford to give him a qualifying offer. They will likely be on the lookout for a vet #2/3 type this offseason. Marcum is probably worth about 8 to 9 million on a 1 year deal. They can afford the extra to gamble that he rebounds. It also helps buy them 1 more year to evaluate all their young pitching talent. Marcum can shop for a multi year deal if it’s there, great we get a pick. If not we get a solid #3 for 13 millions on a 1 year deal. If they are out of it, they can look to move him in July, or keep him and ride him out.
Considering his history with injuries (2008 and 2012) and his level of talent (solid #3 at best), a guy like Marcum is worth 2yrs/$16m + vesting option.
You said it yourself: “Marcum is probably worth about 8 to 9 million on a 1 year deal”.
It would be foolish to give him the qualifying offer. Not worth the gamble.
Look at it this way, would you surrender a draft pick to sign him?
Noone loses a draft pick in the new system.
Clearly you need to re-read the CBA.
“A Club that signs a player subject to compensation will forfeit its first round selection, unless it selects in the top 10, in which case it will forfeit its second highest selection in the draft.”
mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf
This is the NL Central we are talking about. Marcum is tough against the teams that he needs to be in the NL.
Take away Marcum’s injury/fatigue plagued starts, and he probably would have an ERA around 3.30 or below.
The obvious question is his health, and if he is healthy, he would be worth the 13MM/1 year deal.
After giving up Lawrie for him, they should at least try to get something for Marcum.
no, come back to the Blue Jays please
i think people significantly underestimate the value to the team of keeping a deal to one year. even at $13.5M, it’s a pretty easy decision. you absolutely make the offer
The Brewers would be out of their minds to extend an offer to Marcum. Seriously, is anyone watching them? Marcum is the worst of the 5 starters they are putting out there now. They have 5 guys, Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Rogers, and Peralta, who figure to have the inside track on next year’s rotation. Rogers would be starting now but reached his innings limit. Behind them are Narveson, who’s already throwing and should be ready for spring training, Tyler Thornburg, and their minor league pitcher of the year Hiram Burgos who rose from A ball to AAA in one season. Then there’s a plethora of recent high picks, Jimmy Nelson and Tyler Jungmann in particular that aren’t that far away either.