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Archives for June 2013

Quick Hits: Rivera, Wheeler, Braves

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A number of agents told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that they expect teams to spend more in the 2013-14 offseason than they did this past winter. "Some clubs held off spending in advance of their new national TV money last winter, knowing that payments would not start until April 2014," writes Rosenthal. Here's more from around the league…

  • ESPN's Buster Olney writes that Mariano Rivera will not reconsider retiring under any circumstances (ESPN Insider required). "I don't care if I get 100 saves," Rivera told Olney. "I don't care if they offer me $50 million. That's it." Rivera picked up his 20th save tonight and has stated on multiple occasions that this will be his final season.
  • Mets assistant GM John Ricco told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that Zack Wheeler's Major League debut isn't far off. Ricco said the front office met following Wheeler's strong outing on Saturday and discussed several possible dates. When pressed by Ackert, he wouldn't rule out Wheeler arriving within two weeks.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio that he will be on the lookout for bullpen help between now and the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline (Twitter link).
  • Liz Mullen of the Sports Business Journal tweets that Jay-Z and other Roc Nation Sports executives met with the MLB Players Association today in New York.

Gray, Blair Test Positive For Banned Stimulant

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9:56pm: Marshall right-hander Aaron Blair also tested positive for Adderall, reports Conor Glassey of Baseball America. Blair ranked as the No. 41 draft prospect, per BA.

Glassey spoke to a pair of front office executives from different teams, and each believed Gray's usage was a one-time mistake that won't be held against him. A source close to Blair told Glassey that his usage was also a one-time instance.

5:18pm: ESPN's Keith Law reports that Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray, projected to be one of the Top 5 picks in Thursday's MLB draft, has tested positive for Adderall — a stimulant which is banned by the Joint Drug Agreement between MLB and the players' union. According to Law, the test will not result in a suspension, and it's not likely to cause him to slip in the draft.

In fact, in a second piece (this one for ESPN Insiders only), Law outlines a scenario in which this test could actually make Gray more appealing to the Astros with the first overall pick. Law writes that Gray's bonus demands will be lower due to the poor result. One source told Law he expects Gray to sign for a "huge" discount. In that scenario, the Astros could likely sign Gray below slot with the first pick and allocate some of the additional funds to later players without risk of exceeding their bonus pool.

Adderall is typically prescribed as a treatment for ADHD, but Gray did not have a prescription for the drug. In Law's first piece, he notes that more than 110 active players were granted exemptions to use the drug in 2012. Carlos Ruiz's 25-game suspension to open the season was the result of using Adderall without a prescription, he adds. Most teams that Law has spoken to thus far aren't overly troubled by Gray's test, though it does bring his judgment into question.

Padres To Release Edinson Rincon

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The Padres announced (via Twitter) that they have requested unconditional release waivers on infielder Edinson Rincon, who had been designated for assignment last week. His DFA was necessary to create roster space for Yasmani Grandal, who had been serving a 50-game suspension.

Rincon, 22, suffered an injury in minor league spring training camp and has not appeared in a game this season.  In six seasons in the Padres' farm system, Rincon hit .285/.355/.422 in total 484 games. The infielder has never advanced beyond Double-A.

Rincon ranked ninth among Padres prospects prior to the 2010 season according to Baseball America, but fell to 16th pre-2011 and 19th pre-2012. He did not appear on the team's top 30 list this season. BA praised his ability to control the strike zone, work the count and ability to hit breaking balls. However, his defense was questioned heavily, and BA believed that he was destined to end up as a first baseman due to his lack of speed and poor hands.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Scott Kazmir

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The rise and fall of Scott Kazmir was a well-known tale when he signed a minor league deal with the Indians this offseason. After being infamously traded for Victor Zambrano in one of the more lopsided trades of the past 10 years, he quickly ascended to ace status with the Rays. He began to lose velocity in the 2008 season, and his control became increasingly problematic.  Kazmir

Kazmir was traded to the Angels, and things only got worse for him in Anaheim. 2010 would be the last full season he threw in the Major Leagues, and he posted a ghastly 5.94 ERA in 150 innings with a fastball that had lost more than two miles per hour from his peak. Despite speculation that he lost arm strength, Kazmir told David Laurila of Fangraphs that wasn't the case:

“I didn’t really ever lose arm strength, it’s more I lost my ability to use my body. I lost my ability to use my lower half — everything was upper body — and everything started swinging side to side; I didn’t have a good direction to the plate."

Kazmir ultimately wound up pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters in 2012 as he contemplated his future. He had thrown just 1 2/3 Major League innings since 2010 when he signed with Cleveland, but it looks like he could be in for a full season of work. He's thrown 40 1/3 innings for the Tribe over eight starts. His 5.13 ERA isn't all that impressive, but he's averaging 91.7 mph on his fastball. Sabermetric stats like FIP (4.56), xFIP (3.96) and SIERA (3.79) all feel that Kazmir has been unlucky. Indeed, his .362 BABIP and 14.9 percent HR/FB both seem due for a correction.

Kazmir is still just 29 years old and won't be 30 until next January. If he's able to keep himself off the disabled list and see his BABIP and HR/FB regress toward the league averages (.292 and 11.0, respectively), Kazmir should draw significant interest on the free agent market. Paul Maholm figures to be the best lefty on the market, but Kazmir could stake his claim as the second-best free agent lefty.

Another enigmatic left-hander, Francisco Liriano, was able to secure a two-year deal worth $12.75MM with the Pirates this offseason despite posting an ERA over 5.00 from 2011-12 (he later had to re-work his deal after breaking his non-throwing arm). Even if Kazmir continues at his current rate, Liriano's deal seems attainable. If he can lower his ERA while maintaining his 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, a higher annual salary or a third year could be in store.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Moves: Mitch Atkins, Alex Burnett

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Today's minor moves…

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Draft Notes: Mock, Expert Draft, Mets, Phillies

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It's draft week!  On Thursday, the first 73 players will be chosen in MLB's first-year player draft.  Draft order can be found here.  The latest info:

  • Need a refresher on MLB draft basics?  Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca has you covered.
  • How about a fresh mock draft from ESPN's Keith Law?  Law is hearing high school righty Phil Bickford at #8 to the Royals, though he doesn't seem a fan of the idea.  Law's mock draft requires a subscription, but is chock full of info and is well worth it.
  • Baseball America editors John Manuel, Jim Callis, Conor Glassey, and Nathan Rode participated in an expert draft, taking turns making picks for teams.
  • The Mets are targeting a college hitter in the draft, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  He suggests D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Austin Wilson, and Aaron Judge as possibilities.  The Mets draft 11th, and Law went with high school first baseman Dominic Smith.
  • The Phillies pick 16th, their earliest since Gavin Floyd was chosen fourth overall in '01.  Assistant general manager of amateur scouting Marti Wolever told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, "One guy in particular I saw last year and I thought he was one of the best position players I saw last year. I think maybe there is a chance we can snag him this year. I hope so. I have my fingers crossed."

Weak-Hitting Positions For AL Contenders

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Last week we looked at some areas of need for NL contenders.  Using weighted on-base average, let's identify the weakest offensive production by position in the AL today.  Since they're all within 6.5 games of the division lead, we're going to loosely call all AL Central clubs contenders.

  • Catcher: White Sox (.275), Orioles (.277), Tigers (.278).  The Orioles might prefer Matt Wieters get on base at better than a .297 clip, but most likely they're content with his production.  The team's catcher production has been dragged down by backups Chris Snyder and Taylor Teagarden, who have soaked up about 14% of the ABs and have offered nothing.  The Tigers have used Alex Avila and Brayan Pena, the latter of whom has actually been decent.  It's looking like more of a timeshare at present.  It doesn't seem like acquiring someone like John Buck or Nick Hundley would help the situation.  Tyler Flowers hasn't done much as A.J. Pierzynski's replacement in Chicago, but giving Josh Phegley a look makes more sense than an acquisition.
  • First base: White Sox (.284), Royals (.290), Twins (.305).  The Royals have been suffering through another subpar season from Eric Hosmer.  The White Sox are hoping for Paul Konerko to pull out of it, while the Twins have to hope Justin Morneau rediscovers his power stroke.  Corey Hart and Carlos Pena could be available this summer, as first basemen go.  
  • Second base: White Sox (.235), Orioles (.237), Royals (.246).  Jeff Keppinger has done much, but the White Sox reinstated Gordon Beckham from the DL today.  The Orioles have used Ryan Flaherty, Alexi Casilla, Yamaico Navarro, and a few games of Brian Roberts before he suffered a hamstring injury.  They might as well wait to see if Roberts really does return in mid-June, and then see if he can still hit.  The Royals have mainly gone with Chris Getz and Elliot Johnson.  Perhaps when Chase Utley returns from his oblique strain in mid-June, the Phillies' chances in 2013 will have tipped the scale one way or the other.  The second base trade market offers little otherwise; perhaps Rickie Weeks or Darwin Barney.
  • Shortstop: Yankees (.256), Royals (.263).  Derek Jeter is recovering from an ankle injury, and it's unknown when he'll make his season debut.  The Royals seem locked in with Alcides Escobar.  The trade market appears barren anyway, unless perhaps the White Sox make Alexei Ramirez available.
  • Third base: White Sox (.265), Royals (.268), Angels (.282), Yankees (.284).  Have you noticed the Royals get no offensive production out of their infield?  Mike Moustakas is the culprit here.  Conor Gillaspie has been OK at third for the White Sox, and should eat into Keppinger's playing time.  Alberto Callaspo and Luis Jimenez haven't given the Angels much production.  The Yankees have Kevin Youkilis back, plus the possibility of Alex Rodriguez down the road.  Aramis Ramirez, Chase Headley, Mark DeRosa, and Juan Uribe could be available.   
  • Right field: Athletics (.252), Royals (.262), Yankees (.280), Angels (.282).  The A's hope Josh Reddick, back from the DL on Friday, will start hitting.  The Royals can't expect that from Jeff Francoeur.  The Yankees have tried Ichiro Suzuki and Brennan Boesch, and now Lyle Overbay is getting a start in right field as the team waits for Curtis Granderson to return to their outfield.  For the Angels, Josh Hamilton at least showed some power in May.  Thinking about the trade market?  Giancarlo Stanton, Andre Ethier, Nate Schierholtz, Alex Rios, and Mike Morse are the commonly speculated-upon names.
  • Center field: Twins (.257), White Sox (.292), Tigers (.303).  Rookie Aaron Hicks had six home runs for the Twins in May, so maybe things will continue getting better.  The White Sox have been using Alejandro De Aza and Dewayne Wise, and perhaps should just use less of Wise.  The Tigers await the return of Austin Jackson.     
  • Left field: White Sox (.293).  Dayan Viciedo hit 25 home runs last year, but has just four so far this year.  The team has also been using De Aza in left.  Josh Willingham, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, and Melky Cabrera could be on the market, in a general sense.
  • Designated hitter: Tigers (.263), White Sox (.284), Orioles (.308).  Big commitments to Victor Martinez in Detroit and Adam Dunn and Konerko in Chicago hamstring this clubs at DH.  The Orioles may want to see what Nolan Reimold can do when he returns later this month, but they should be flexible toward upgrades involving many of the aforementioned available hitters.  As far as pure designated hitters, Kendrys Morales and Adam Lind might be out there. 

Brewers Acquire Juan Francisco; Release Alex Gonzalez

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The Brewers acquired third baseman Juan Francisco from the Braves for minor league lefty reliever Tom Keeling, announced the teams.  Additionally, the Brewers announced they've asked for waivers for the unconditional release of infielder Alex Gonzalez, while recalling second baseman Scooter Gennett and optioning Mike Fiers.

The Braves designated Francisco for assignment last Thursday to open a roster spot for Alex Wood.  Francisco, 25, hit .237/.281/.420 in 320 plate appearances spanning 2012-13 for Atlanta.  They had acquired him in an April 2012 trade with the Reds for reliever J.J. Hoover.  Signed out of the Dominican Republic by Cincinnati in 2004, Francisco hit the prospect radar a few years later.  Baseball America praised his arm and big raw power, questioning his aggressive approach at the plate.  Francisco has played only third base in the Majors, and has played a handful of minor league games at the outfield corners and at first.  In the short-term, though, GM Doug Melvin indicated on WSSP SportsRadio 1250 that Francisco will play first for the Brewers.  Looking ahead, Francisco could be a viable replacement at the hot corner if the Brewers trade Aramis Ramirez this summer.

Keeling, 25, was drafted out of Oklahoma State by the Brewers in the 18th round in 2010.  In 17 relief frames at Double-A this year, he has a 3.18 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 5.3 BB/9, with one home run allowed.  According to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, "Keeling is a future bullpen piece who could get to Atlanta in 2014. He's hit 93 on the gun and occasionally uses a sideam delivery."  Baseball America's J.J. Cooper paints a less rosy picture, tweeting, "Keeling is a fringy potential left-handed reliever with a below average fastball, OK slider."

Gonzalez, 36, signed a Major League deal worth $1.45MM in February.  His release came after a .177/.203/.230 line in 118 plate appearances.  A shortstop by trade, Gonzalez spent more time this year at the infield corners due to injuries to Corey Hart and Ramirez.  Gonzalez had ACL surgery on his knee a year ago and battled a hamstring injury about a month ago.  He lost playing time to Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit six home runs in April.  The Brewers will be on the hook for Gonzalez's salary this year, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum should he sign elsewhere.

Gennett, 23, was added to the Brewers' 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.  The 5'9" second baseman was ranked eighth among Brewers prospects by Baseball America prior to the season.  He's a free-swinging line drive hitter with some surprising doubles power, wrote BA.  They added that he has some rough edges to smooth out defensively, with an average arm and range.  Gennett was hitting .297/.342/.376 in 221 plate appearances at Triple-A, and MLB.com's Adam McCalvy suggests he will push Rickie Weeks for the team's starting job at second base.  At the least, some kind of platoon situation is possible, since Gennett bats left-handed and Weeks right-handed.

Twins Designate Tyler Robertson For Assignment

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The Twins announced today they've designated lefty Tyler Robertson for assignment, while selecting the contract of outfielder Clete Thomas.  Thomas gives the Twins another center field option while Wilkin Ramirez recovers from a concussion, notes Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Robertson, 25, made 40 appearances out of the Twins' bullpen last year as a rookie.  This year he made a couple of April appearances before being optioned to Triple-A, where he compiled a 3.05 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 7.0 BB/9 with no home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings.  It's the worst walk rate Robertson has posted at any level.

The Twins drafted Robertson out of high school in the third round in '06, a round notable for other big leaguers such as Joe Smith, Brennan Boesch, Jason Donald, and Zach McAllister.  Prior to the '07 season, Baseball America wrote that Robertson's "stuff is already solid average, with a 90-91 mph fastball that touches 94 and good curveball with depth."  Despite inconsistent velocity in the years that followed, the 6'5" lefty rose up the ranks of Twins prospects and was praised for his makeup before moving to relief in 2011.  He currently works at 85-88 miles per hour, according to BrooksBaseball.net.  Robertson's father, Jay, is employed as a scout for the Nationals.

Trade Candidate: Yovani Gallardo

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The Brewers have a 21-34 record, and they play in a division with three teams playing .614 ball or better.  Milwaukee is highly unlikely to make the playoffs this year.  Their farm system is in the bottom third to put it kindly and the team lacks a first-round pick this Thursday, so it would seem they have a great opportunity to add prospects this summer.  The problem: the team is lacking for strong trade candidates.  Rickie Weeks has been terrible.  Kyle Lohse has been OK, though teams don't typically trade players a few months into a three-year contract.  Corey Hart is a free agent after the season, but he still hasn't made his season debut.  Aramis Ramirez is a quality bat, though he's essentially owed $20MM next year.  Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez aren't going anywhere.  But what about Yovani Gallardo?

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When the Brewers signed Gallardo to a five-year, $30.1MM deal in April 2010, it was a commitment to build their rotation around him.  He was 24 years old with minimal mileage on his arm, an average fastball velocity topping 92 miles per hour, and a strikeout rate of nearly ten per nine innings.  He was a reliable producer in the three seasons that followed, even if walks and home runs kept him a bit short of an ace.

2013 has been a rough year, however.  Gallardo was arrested for DUI in April, with a blood-alcohol level of 0.22.  Things haven't been great on the field, either.  His strikeout rate of 7.45 per nine innings is a career low.  His home run rate is also a career worst, and he's allowed a whopping ten hits per nine.  Those last two factors are likely to be better moving forward, but it is troublesome to see his average fastball velocity down to 90.5 miles per hour.

The velocity might be partially an early-season thing – Gallardo averaged 91.93 miles per hour on Friday, according to BrooksBaseball.net, compared to 92.89 one year prior.  Despite Gallardo's 5.05 ERA, his skills suggest a 4.10 ERA moving forward.  Still, this is a player who has never posted an ERA above 3.84 in his big league career.  His lower walk rate in 2011 seems like a fluke, it's hard to say whether the strikeout rate will fully return, and he's always been homer-prone.

At the trade deadline, Gallardo will have about $2.58MM remaining in 2013 salary.  He's owed a reasonable $11.25MM for 2014, and then his club can choose a $13MM club option or $600K buyout for '15.  He can block deals to ten teams.  On May 18th Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said the Brewers were "really reluctant to trade Gallardo," but Rosenthal seems to have softened his stance on Saturday in calling the pitcher an "intriguing name."  I imagine a rocky start to the season won't be enough to torpedo Gallardo's trade value.

The case against moving Gallardo: the Brewers have Braun, Gomez, and Jean Segura for about $17.5MM total next year, far below their value.  Even if we disregard everyone else on the roster, that's a lot of star-level, affordable talent to waste amid a full-blown rebuild.  I don't think the Brewers will punt on 2014, which means they need Gallardo or at least a suitable replacement.

That might be the key.  Gallardo's $11.25MM salary next year is steep for a team with a payroll under $100MM, and the Brewers could look to acquire a big league-ready pitcher earning the league minimum, plus other pieces.  It would be best to target a pitcher who hasn't had much big league success to date, but could learn on the job for the last few months of 2013 and take a step forward in '14.  Some potential examples, in my opinion, could be Nate Karns of the Nationals, Jesse Biddle of the Phillies, Allen Webster of the Red Sox, Zach Lee of the Dodgers, and Kyle Gibson of the Twins.  Perhaps some or even all of those specific names are off-limits, but it's the type of pitcher I'd expect Brewers GM Doug Melvin to pursue if he entertains offers on Gallardo in the coming months.  Melvin could add further value by including one of his veteran relievers in a deal.  A trade within the NL Central would be tough, but otherwise, nearly any other contender could show interest, as you can never have enough pitching and Gallardo is more than a rental.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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