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Archives for September 2013

Free Agent Faceoff: Scott Kazmir vs. Phil Hughes

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For today's Free Agent Faceoff entry, we'll take a look at Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes, two formerly heralded prospects who enter the free-agent market this offseason with big question marks.

Kazmir emerged from obscurity this season to put together a respectable 4.14-ERA, 152-inning campaign for the Indians. That ERA wasn't a fluke, as Kazmir also posted a K/9 of 8.9 and a BB/9 of 2.7. The second figure is particularly impressive, as it's easily the lowest of Kazmir's career. As a left-hander who misses bats, suppresses walks and averages 92.1 mph on his fastball, Kazmir would potentially be in line for a multi-year deal with annual eight-digit salaries if he had a stronger recent track record. However, around this time last year, Kazmir was pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters in independent ball. He also struggled with efficiency throughout the season, averaging less than six innings per start.

There was talk earlier in the year of a qualifying offer for Hughes, but that possibility has evaporated after another disappointing season for the 6' 5", 240-pound right-hander. In a final line that's perhaps representative of his checkered career, Hughes posted a 5.19 ERA in 145 2/3 innings despite a 2.88 K/BB ratio that places him in the same range as starters such as Derek Holland and James Shields. As has often been the case for Hughes, otherwise good results were dragged down by an inability to keep the ball in the park. Hughes posted a 1.48 HR/9 this year, ranking among the league leaders. Given his natural fly-ball tendencies (career 33.6 percent GB rate), a team with a more spacious ballpark than Yankee Stadium could target Hughes as a buy-low candidate.

The major knock on Kazmir is the bizarre trajectory his career has taken. There's just not many comparables for the 29-year-old, a former top young starter who appeared to be out of baseball but re-emerged this season to post a 3.36 K/BB ratio in 152 innings. Hughes, 27, has always inspired optimism, but he's never developed into the dominant starting pitcher that many projected based on his size and stuff.

AL Central Notes: Twins Roster, Gardenhire, Konerko

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The Twins face a number of roster decisions as the season draws to a close, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes. Many of the players the club added to the 40-man in 2012 ahead of the Rule 5 draft saw significant time in the major leagues this year. Alex Wimmers, a first-round pick in 2010 who returned from Tommy John surgery in July, will be subject to the Rule 5 if he's not added in November, Berardino notes. Here's more from the AL's central division:

  • Twins GM Terry Ryan wouldn't hesitate to sign a player coming off of a PED-related suspension, as long as the player had served his time, Berardino tweets.
  • Ryan says that he'll be back as GM next season and that a decision on Ron Gardenhire's future is coming soon, writes Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN.  Sources tell Mackey they believe the Twins and Gardenhire have discussed one- or two-year contract possibilities.
  • Gardenhire and Rick Anderson are among the winningest manager-pitching coach pairings in major league history, Berardino writes.
  • Berardino notes that Glen Perkins won't be able to trigger the $150,000 bonus in his contract for 55 games finished. Perkins entered today having finished 52 games. The left-hander will earn about $2.98MM in salary and bonuses this year, and is on track to make around $3.99MM next season.
  • Paul Konerko spoke at length with reporters about his future with the White Sox, and MLB.com's Scott Merkin has the details in a post on his blog. Konerko says he hasn't formally broached the subject with the club, but that he'd be willing to return to the Sox in a part-time role.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

AL West Notes: Donaldson, Trumbo, Wedge, Astros

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Hunter Pence's new five-year deal with the Giants isn't the only extension talk in the Bay Area. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Josh Donaldson is very open to the idea of signing a long-term deal with the Athletics. Donaldson tells Slusser that he and his agent, Hunter Bledsoe, have discussed the possibility, and he would "absolutely love" to sign an extension, provided it's a fair deal.

Said Donaldson: "I'm a guy who's been downplayed my entire career. Even when I was a first-round draft pick (in 2007), I took 10 percent less than the guy before me. I just want something fair, something that's justified." Donaldson's .302/.383/.502 batting line, 24 homers and elite third base defense should earn him some AL MVP votes. Here's more from the AL West…

  • Mark Trumbo might be the Angels' best trade chip in their quest for controllable young pitching this offseason, writes MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. The Mariners, Pirates and Royals all had interest in Trumbo this past July, according to Gonzalez, and more teams figure to be interested over the winter. Trumbo told Gonzalez that he doesn't fear the change that would come with a trade like he would have earlier in his career.
  • Mariners manager Eric Wedge, who has told the team he won't be back in 2014, told reporters (including Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times) that he wouldn't even accept a five-year extension from the team. Wedge cited a difference between his vision for the team and the vision of GM Jack Zduriencik, president Chuck Armstrong and CEO Howard Lincoln. Wedge felt the team needed to supplement young talent with proven talent and told Baker that he didn't have as much say in personnel decisions as he'd have liked.
  • A statement released by the Astros explained the team's position in the wake of a report that Comcast filed an involuntary bankruptcy petition on behalf of the Comcast SportsNet Houston network that the Astros co-own with the Houston Rockets and NBC Universal. Brian McTaggart has the gist of the statement in an article for MLB.com. The statement alleges that Comcast improperly filed the petition to try to block the Astros from terminating the club's media rights agreement with Houston Regional Sports Network. "We will continue to work toward obtaining full carriage so that all of our fans are able to watch the Astros games while making sure that the Astros are able to compete for championships," the statement read.

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

Free Agent Profile: Hiroki Kuroda

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There are exceptions to almost every rule, and Hiroki Kuroda appears to be one of the exceptions to pitcher aging curves. At 38 years old, he's essentially having the same season he had as a 37-year-old, and the transition from the National League to the American League at age 37 barely fazed him. Kuroda will enter free agency as one of the most talented pitchers on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Kuroda is a ground-ball pitcher with plus command who misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. His career ground-ball rate is 49 percent, and he's at 46.9 percent in 2013. Only once has he turned in a ground-ball rate lower than the league average. He's adopted a sinker and two-seamer increasingly over the past few seasons as opposed to throwing a straight four-seam fastball.  Kuroda-Hiroki

Kuroda has averaged just 2.1 walks per nine innings in his career, and that figure has actually improved with each season in the American League despite the fact that he's facing designated hitters instead of pitchers. In terms of strikeouts, his 6.7 K/9 rate is below the league average but his 9.9 percent swinging-strike rate is above the league average. Kuroda appears to be a guy who can get strikeouts when he needs them but is content to trust his defense instead of punching out every hitter he faces.

As such, he's able to work deep into games. Kuroda has averaged at least 6 1/3 innings per start in each of the past three seasons. He averages 203 innings per season and should top 200 innings once again in 2013. He also won't require the long-term risk associated with top free agent starters like Matt Garza and Masahiro Tanaka.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kuroda does appear to be an exception, but history has conditioned us to believe that eventually, the bottom will drop out for a pitcher. Kuroda has been remarkably durable and effective in the AL East in his late 30s, but he will pitch next season at 39. Teams will be wary of his age, and his fastball velocity has declined slightly in each of the past three seasons.

The second half of the season also hasn't been kind to Kuroda. After a brilliant 2.65 ERA in 118 1/3 first-half innings, he's registered a more pedestrian 3.97 ERA following the All-Star break. It's fair to point out that his second-half struggles are likely tied to a bloated second-half BABIP, but that number is in part attributable to an increase in his line-drive rate in the second half.

Kuroda is also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, which would put him in an undesirable situation. Teams showed great reluctance to part with draft picks for players on multiyear commitments last offseason. Would a team really be OK parting with a first-round pick for what will likely be a one-year deal for a 39-year-old pitcher?

Personal

Kuroda and his wife, Masayo, have two daughters: Hinatsu and Wakana. Kuroda's family currently resides in southern California. He is considered to be one of the hardest working players in Major League Baseball, in part due to the unthinkable disciplinary tactics he was subjected to in high school and college baseball in Japan (as profiled in this 2012 piece from David Waldstein of the New York Times). Kuroda's father, Kazuhiro, was a professional outfielder in Japan, playing for the franchise that is now the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Market

Kuroda has said that he hasn't determined whether or not he'll pitch again in 2014, and even if he does return, it could be to his native Japan. For the purposes of this post, however, I'm operating under the assumption that he does return to the Majors for his age-39 campaign.

Kuroda could simply accept a qualifying offer from the Yankees, though doing so would mean giving the team a slight discount and taking an undeserved pay cut. He could also reject a qualifying offer and re-sign with the Yankees for a slight raise — perhaps $16MM or so — as he and agent Steve Hilliard of Octagon elected to do last season.

Kuroda also weighed a return to Japan last offseason and reportedly would have been happy to pitch in southern California where his daughters live and attend school. His preference does seem to be to pitch on a coast. Because a one-year deal is likely and he's coming off such a strong season, Kuroda seems highly likely to end up on a contending team.

Expected Contract

Kuroda will be one of the best free agent starters on the market and also the oldest. Another one-year deal seems likely if he is to return to Major League Baseball. He rejected a qualifying offer following last season, and it seems unlikely that he would accept one this offseason when it would mean taking a pay cut. As such, I expect Kuroda to reject a qualifying offer and ink a one-year deal worth $16MM, earning a slight raise from his 2013 salary following another strong year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenthal On Blue Jays, Rangers, Kemp, Francona

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted his latest edition of Full Count.  Here's a look at some of the highlights..

  • The Blue Jays constantly get calls on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista and as always, they're willing to listen on anything.  The shortage of quality hitters out there could lead to better offers than they've gotten in the past, but their stance remains the same: neither one will be moved unless it leads to an improvement of their big league team.
  • Whether the Rangers are postseason-bound or not, their biggest need this winter will be a No. 3 hitter with Nelson Cruz hitting the open market.  The Marlins swear that they're keeping Giancarlo Stanton and Robinson Cano isn't a fit for a team that already has too many middle infielders.  One option could be Matt Kemp, if the Dodgers will part with him.
  • Indians manager Terry Francona has an out clause in his contract that will allow him to go elsewhere if the club fires GM Chris Antonetti, according to sources.  The length of Antonetti's contract isn't clear, but he has at least through 2014 and given their success, they're unlikely to make a GM change or lose Francona anytime soon.
  • A shakeup of the D'Backs coaching staff is imminent, the only question is how expansive it will be.  If Matt Williams bolts for a managerial job elsewhere, he could take a couple of coaches with him as well.

Giants Close To Extending Pence

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12:31pm: The Giants have agreed on a five-year deal with Pence, tweets John Fay of the San Francisco Chronicle.

12:27pm: The deal would cover five years, tweets FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. In a short piece, Heyman also says that a five-year term is expected and notes that an announcement could come as soon as today.

12:18pm: The Giants are nearing a $90MM deal with Pence, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

8:44am: The Giants' extension discussions with outfielder Hunter Pence took on increasing urgency yesterday, according to reports from the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman and CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly. Pence was seen huddling in conversation with team president Larry Baer in the reporter-filled clubhouse.

Conveniently-placed ears managed to overhear some of the discussion, according to MLB.com's Chris Haft, and among the things that passed between them was the phrase "I'm sure we'll get something done." Afterward, the 30-year-old outfielder confirmed what everyone suspected and acknowledged that talks were picking up steam. “They’re about to get back to me, seriously,” said Pence. “So we’re either really close or really far away.” When asked whether that could mean a deal by the end of the weekend, Pence said: "Yeah. I’ll know shortly. We’ll just say we’re talking, I guess.”

Baer's surprisingly public negotiation maneuver came after a night that the organization had already dedicated to Pence, who received the Willie Mac award as the club's most inspirational player. To make the night extra special, the club even conned Pence into giving up his mother's phone numbers so it could secretly arrange for her to attend. 

Brewers Intend To Discuss Extension With Segura

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin says that he will reach out to Jean Segura's representatives over the offseason about a possible long-term extension, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). The 23-year-old shortstop, who is represented by Joe Klein, will not be eligible for arbitration until 2016.

Of course, Melvin has reportedly already once been rebuffed by Segura's team. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option.

Jose Dariel Abreu Cleared To Sign

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Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu has been declared a free agent and been cleared to sign with an MLB club, MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. The first baseman, who will be guided by Praver Shapiro, promises to become one of the most sought-after right-handed bats on the market. 

As Sanchez also notes, the Giants are among the teams that have been mentioned as possible suitors, along with the Red Sox, Rangers, Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Marlins. At just 26 years of age, Abreu could indeed appeal to a variety of teams, even those not anticipating immediate contention. It will be interesting to see how his market takes shape after his forthcoming showcases.

As Baseball America's Ben Badler has noted, however, scouts have already had ample opportunity to get a look at Abreu given his consistent presence with the Cuban national team. According to Badler, the line on Abreu is that he lacks athleticism but is a polished hitter with real power. He notes, however, that scouts have split on how Abreu's skills will play against big league pitching.

AL East Notes: Johnson, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cano

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 As the Rays fight to join the Red Sox in the postseason, let's take a look at the rest of the AL East:

  • The Orioles will tender a contract to closer Jim Johnson, reports MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. Though Johnson has accumulated more saves than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons, the 30-year-old righty went through a rough stretch that made him look like a possible non-tender, especially given the high price he'll command in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
  • Baltimore GM Dan Duquette recently had what he termed an "informal meeting" with agent Scott Boras, the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly reports. Among other O's, Boras represents two key younger Birds in catcher Matt Wieters and first baseman Chris Davis, each of whom is set to hit the open market after 2015. Though Duquette indicated that nothing significant has happened on the negotiation front, he said that working to lock up the team's "core group" was a priority that the team would work on over the winter.
  • There are a lot of roster decisions facing Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, writes Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. Particularly difficult, says Kennedy, are the questions whether or not to pick up first baseman/DH Adam Lind's option and what to do with catcher J.P. Arencibia in 2014.
  • The Jays' rotation, of course, was one of the team's most glaring disappointments this season. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca takes a closer look at the club's options heading into the offseason.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides the latest on soon-to-be free agent Robinson Cano, who Sherman says seems likely — but not certain — to stay in the Bronx.  “There is a lot that money can’t buy,” Cano said. “When Mo [Mariano Rivera] was a free agent, if he went somewhere else, then what happened [Thursday] could not have happened for him. But you have to understand that this is a business. The Yankees are going to do what is best for them, and I am going to do what is best for me and my family.”

Central Notes: Peralta, Brewers, Yost

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After serving a 50-game suspension for his role in the Biogenesis scandal, Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta returned to his team Friday, now playing left field. Jose Iglesias has hit fairly well while living up to his defensive reputation since the Tigers acquired him in the three-team Jake Peavy trade at the July deadline, and so Peralta's team isn't the same as it was when he left it. Luckily for Peralta, Tigers left fielders, headed by Andy Dirks, haven't been spectacular, and there's still room for Peralta's potent bat in the Tigers' lineup and on their bench. He now appears set to make the Tigers' ALDS roster. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Brewers owner Mark Attanasio acknowledges that his team has had a "disappointing" season, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports. But the team's struggles created opportunities for players like Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis and Tyler Thornburg, and those players took advantage. "It certainly is going to affect how we plan in the offseason," Attanasio says. "We did our full group staff meetings, and a lot of these guys are in the mix now, and I don’t know if you would have had any of them in the mix three to four months ago." Attanasio suggests that the Brewers will pursue pitching this offseason, even though there aren't "a lot of obvious candidates" on the free agent market.
  • The Royals and manager Ned Yost haven't yet begun talks on a new contract, but it's nearly certain he'll return, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes. "I’ve got too much invested here," says Yost. "These players are a joy to be around. They’re a fun, fun group." Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in keeping Yost in the organization. The Royals are the midst of their first winning season since 2003.

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