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Archives for September 2013

Blue Jays Notes: Anthopoulos, Arencibia, Rogers

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Here are some news items looking ahead to what will surely be an eventful Blue Jays offseason…

  • The Jays are under great pressure to improve in 2014 but have relatively little payroll space or minor league trade options to work with, and Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi warns that "operating under such need can often lead to poor choices."  Davidi cites the Angels and Phillies as teams that have bloated payrolls and thin farm systems after making ill-advised moves to stay competitive, and he thinks there is potential for overspending on free agent pitchers who wouldn't necessarily represent the clear upgrade Toronto needs in their rotation.
  • Speaking of pitching, GM Alex Anthopoulos told media (including The Toronto Star) that the rotation is "the most glaring hole on this team and that’s the most glaring area we need to address."  What exact kinds of starters will be acquired, however, is still up in the air.  “Can it be done with five mid-rotation starters? Would we be better off with two front-of-the-rotation guys and three guys that are five-hole or four-hole guys? … I think it’s as much about guys who give you a chance to win games," Anthopoulos said.
  • Anthopoulos also defended J.P. Arencibia, yet didn't give any hints either way if Arencibia would be brought back in 2014, simply saying "we need to upgrade the production" from the catcher's spot.  Arencibia entered tonight's action hitting .194/.229/.365 with 21 homers in 490 PA and is on pace for one of the worst full-season OBP years in baseball history.
  • Esmil Rogers was acquired as a reliever but was pressed back into service as a starter this season and hopes to continue in the rotation in 2014, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm writes.  Rogers, 28, posted a 4.77 ERA, 2.18 K/BB and 6.3 K/9 over 44 games (20 of them starts) this season, and he is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter.
  • Sportsnet.ca's Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the trade value for every member of the Blue Jays roster.

Minor Moves: Langerhans, Martin, Lalli

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Here are today's minor moves from around the league…

  • The Blue Jays purchased the contract of Ryan Langerhans and added him to the 40-man roster, the team announced.  Langerhans has had two separate stints in the Jays' minor league system this season, with his most recent deal signed in August.  He posted a .748 OPS in 248 PA with Triple-A Buffalo this season and is appearing in his first Major League game of 2013 tonight.  Brett Cecil was transferred to the 60-day DL in a corresponding move.
  • Rays right-hander J.D. Martin cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham after being designated for assignment over the weekend, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (on Twitter). Martin, 30, was named the Triple-A International League's Most Valuable Pitcher this season after totaling 160 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.
  • Cotillo also tweets that Blake Lalli has been outrighted off the Brewers' 40-man roster after clearing waivers. Lalli, 30, was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for right-hander Josh Ravin, who was claimed off waivers from the Reds. Lalli went 3-for-24 for the Brew Crew this season and is a lifetime .268/.312/.420 at Triple-A.

Yankees Notes: Rivera, Granderson, Cano, A-Rod

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Mariano Rivera could receive one more retirement present in the form of a long-awaited appearance in center field.  Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including MLB.com's Bryan Hoch) that he could give the closer an inning of work in center during the season-ending series this weekend in Houston, which also mark the final three games of Rivera's legendary career.  Rivera has said he will take the defensive assignment only if he feels physically up to the task.  "If I cannot do it, I will not be making a fool of myself there," Rivera said. "I'm a professional. This is not a joke. This is serious, this is business."

Here are some more items out of the Bronx…

  • Curtis Granderson's preference would be to remain with the Yankees but he's looking forward to his first taste of free agency, the outfielder tells The Star-Ledger's Brendan Prunty.  MLBTR's Steve Adams recently profiled what Granderson could claim on the open market this winter.
  • Going into what could be his last home game in Yankee Stadium, Robinson Cano told reporters (including Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York) that he planned to take a long break after the season and then think about his future.  As Matthews notes, this likely means the Yankees won't be able to extend Cano during their exclusivity period following the World Series.  Cano also didn't say if he would require the Yankees to commit to making other free agent signings this winter before re-signing with them.
  • Earlier today, it was reported that Cano was seeking a ten-year contract worth at least $305MM.  He has already rejected two extension offers from the Yankees worth $138MM over eight years and between $161MM-$168MM over seven years.
  • Alex Rodriguez "absolutely" expects to finish his career as a Yankee in 2017 after playing out the rest of his contract, he told Newsday's Steven Marcus.  "I'm looking forward to that….I've shown myself that there's a lot left in the tank — and I have a lot to prove," Rodriguez said.
  • It might not be for 211 games, but Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog figures Rodriguez will face some kind of PED suspension, and Axisa looks at how the Yankees would be affected if Rodriguez had to miss 50, 100 or 150+ games.

Mets Notes: Davis, Duda, Wright, Black

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As you can tell from MLBTR's Reverse Standings page, the Mets currently don't have a protected first round pick in the 2014 amateur draft.  Their 73-85 record puts them in line for the 12th overall pick, and only the teams with the 10 worst records (plus the Blue Jays' 11th overall pick, stemming from 2013 compensation) will have their picks protected.  Though an unprotected first-rounder could hurt the Mets' plans to delve into the free agent market this winter, GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post that he's just happy to see his team win.  “I don’t view the draft-pick situation as relevant to what we’re doing here,” Alderson said. “We’re trying to win every game we play. We’re trying to build the credibility of the franchise and that goes beyond where we’re picking in the draft.”

Here's the latest from Queens…

  • The Mets are "likely" to shop both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda this winter and possibly deal the one that commands the higher trade package, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reports.  Rubin also polls nine scouts about which of the two first baseman they would prefer to have, with seven picking Duda.
  • David Wright expects the Mets to be a much better team in 2014, telling reporters (including MLB.com's Anthony DiComo) that he expects improvement from players currently on the club's roster and also believes some external acquisitions are on the way.  "Everybody’s been saying that this is the year with the money coming off the books, with some of the free agents that are out there, with some of the possible trade candidates given some of the younger pitchers and players we’ve developed. It seems like it’s all kind of culminating into this offseason to try to go out there and make this team better," Wright said.
  • The recently-acquired Vic Black is likely the Mets' backup plan at closer if Bobby Parnell isn't ready to start the 2014 season, manager Terry Collins told reporters (including DiComo).  Parnell underwent neck surgery earlier this month and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Black, a rookie right-hander, has a 3.27 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 relief innings since joining the Mets.  You can keep up on the Mets' closing situation and more by following @CloserNews, MLBTR's sister Twitter feed for save-related news.
  • Mike Baxter's possible Super Two status could make him a non-tender candidate this winter, DiComo writes.  He could be expendable once the Mets add an outfielder or two, though Baxter could be helped by a relative lack of left-handed bats amongst the current Mets outfield options.  Baxter has only a .190/.303/.256 line over 142 PA this season.

Beltway Links: Davis, Schoop, Haren, LaRoche

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It's been an incredible season for Orioles slugger Chris Davis, who has belted a Major League leading 52 homers as of Thursday. Davis is hitting .285/.368/.631, and he leads the league in total bases while sharing the MLB RBI lead with Miguel Cabrera as well. Under team control through 2015 via arbitration, Davis told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com that he's open to staying in Baltimore longer:

"This has been like a second home for me. This has been a place where I've really felt like I've been accepted, been loved and really appreciated. That's rare in this game to find a place where you can call it home. That's between obviously my agent and the front office, but I'd love to stay in Baltimore."

Here's more on the O's and Nats…

  • Jonathan Schoop could be the second baseman of the future for the Orioles, but Melewski isn't banking on him being the O's answer to open the 2014 season. Melewski opines that Schoop probably needs a bit more minor league seasoning and speculates that such thinking could push the Orioles to pursue a one-year deal with free-agent-to-be Brian Roberts.
  • Dan Haren has never had as much self-doubt as he had early in the season, the right-hander told Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com. Haren said his first few months with the Nationals were embarrassing, and he struggled mentally and emotionally. Haren candidly admitted that the toll of being in a new city with no family around and few friends worsened those feelings, as he spent a great deal of time alone and thinking about his struggles. Haren has rebounded with a 3.57 ERA over his past 14 starts but knows that he won't have as much say about where he pitches in 2014 as he did when he chose the Nats last year. He did mention his affinity for the West Coast to Kolko.
  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson tackles a host of Nationals-related topics in his latest Inbox column. Ladson feels left-handed relief and an improved bench will need to be areas of focus this offseason and believes that Adam LaRoche will be with the team on Opening Day in 2014 despite some speculation that he could be traded.
  • Echoing Ladson's point, Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider says that "club officials have given zero indication" to moving LaRoche.  Zuckerman speaks to the first baseman himself and Nats manager Davey Johnson about LaRoche's tough season.
  • James Wagner of the Washington Post looks at the what-ifs of the Nationals season and wonders how things would have been different had they re-signed Tom Gorzelanny and gotten production from Haren from day one, among many other scenarios.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

International Notes: Jose Abreu, Raicel Iglesias

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Earlier in the week it was reported that Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero could sign with a team soon. There are four or five teams who have seen the 26-year-old Guerrero work out five or six times, according to new agent Scott Boras. Here's the latest on a couple of other Cuban names who figure to make headlines in the offseason…

  • Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu will have two open showcases for all teams next week, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Abreu will audition for teams at the Yankees’ Dominican facility on Monday and Tuesday and It’s expected that he will field grounders at first base, take batting practice, then face some live pitching.  However, he isn’t expected to play in any games or simulated games.
  • Pitcher Raicel Iglesias is rumored to have defected from Cuba, writes Nelson Acosta of Reuters.  The 23-year-old impressed scouts on Cuba's U.S. tour where he hit 92-95 mph on the gun and made batters miss often with his breaking ball, according to Badler, who also passes along a highlight reel of the hurler.  Right now, it appears that Iglesias' biggest problem is control.  At 5'11" and 165 pounds, he's also a bit undersized.  Badler feels that Iglesias is likely to begin his career in the minors.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Bud Selig To Formally Announce Retirement Today

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2:21pm: Major League Baseball has issued a press release confirming Selig's retirement. Within the release, Selig offered the following statement:

“It remains my great privilege to serve the game I have loved throughout my life. Baseball is the greatest game ever invented, and I look forward to continuing its extraordinary growth and addressing several significant issues during the remainder of my term. 

I am grateful to the owners throughout Major League Baseball for their unwavering support and for allowing me to lead this great institution. I thank our players, who give me unlimited enthusiasm about the future of our game. Together we have taken this sport to new heights and have positioned our national pastime to thrive for generations to come. Most of all, I would like to thank our fans, who are the heart and soul of our game.” 

1:04pm: Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig will announce his formal retirement later today, according to the New York Daily News' investigative reporting team of Teri Thompson, Michael O'Keeffe, Christian Red and Nathaniel Vinton. Selig plans to announce that the 2014 season will be his final as league commissioner, according to the report (Twitter link).

A report earlier this season from CBS Sports broke the news that Selig at one point turned down a five-year extension that would have kept him in office through age 83. Selig will be 80 years old at the conclusion of his career. He has been the league's commissioner since 1992 and seen baseball grow from a $1.2 billion industry to an $8.5 billion industry under his guidance.

Which Players Will Receive A Qualifying Offer?

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Last offseason, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM.  At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades.  A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation.  We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy.  I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason.  Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one on the fifth day after the World Series ends this year.  In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer.  You can click here to view the results.

Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey, the world's leading questionnaire tool.

Robinson Cano Seeking Ten Years, $305MM

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9:33am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Yankees' offer to Cano in Spring Training was similar to David Wright's eight-year, $138MM contract with the Mets (Twitter link).

Joel Sherman of the New York Post echoes that report, adding that the Yankees offered it with no deferrals. After that offer was rejected, the Yankees offered seven years in the $23-24MM range and were also rejected. Sherman has Cano's request at $310MM, stating that Cano wants to beat A-Rod's deal as opposed to match its potential total (Twitter links).

9:18am: With the Yankees officially eliminated from playoff contention, much of the focus on the team will shift to Robinson Cano's impending free agency, and it could be more expensive than any had imagined. According to ESPN's Buster Olney (ESPN Insider required), Cano is seeking a ten-year contract worth $305MM — the total value of Alex Rodriguez's deal with the Yankees if he hits all of his incentives — as he heads into free agency.

A contract of that magnitude would be the largest commitment in Major League history, but Cano's track record of elite production gives him the ability to seek something historical. Over the past five seasons, Cano is batting .314/.369/.531, averaging 160 games and 28 homers per season. A solid defender at second base, Cano has been worth an average of 6.4 WAR (per Fangraphs) or 7.5 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) over the past four seasons, depending on which version of the metric you prefer.

Cano's request clearly clashes with the Yankees' desire to keep their payroll under the $189MM luxury tax threshold, but it's not clear if any team could afford to sign him to such a lucrative deal. The Dodgers would seem the likeliest candidates, but recent reports have indicated that they're not likely to pursue Cano or any other major free agents this offseason.

Earlier this year, Cano left the Boras Corporation in favor of Jay-Z's start-up agency, Roc Nation Sports, which is currently partnering with CAA Sports. CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen is said to be heading up any contract negotiations for Cano, though Jay-Z was recently certified by the MLBPA as a player representative himself.

Free Agent Profile: Brian McCann

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If you're looking for a power-hitting catcher, there's no better choice than Brian McCann.  McCann has played eight full seasons in the Majors, ranking worse than third in home runs at the position only one time.  He's averaged 21 bombs per year, and he has 20 this year even though his season didn't begin until May.

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Strengths/Pros

McCann is a bona fide middle of the order bat, at a position for which a .246/.311/.390 line qualifies as average.  His career batting line is .277/.350/.474, which is not far from what he's accomplished in 2013.  Along with the big-time power, McCann can also draw a walk, with a career rate of 9.5%.

How many free agents will hit the market coming off a 20 home run campaign?  Assuming club options are picked up on Coco Crisp and Adam Lind, just 11 players including McCann will manage the feat.  Of those 11, only McCann and Robinson Cano play an up-the-middle position, if we don't consider Shin-Soo Choo a center fielder.  Like Cano, McCann provides offense at a position not known for it.

McCann won't turn 30 until February, so he's the youngest prominent free agent bat. 

Defensively, FanGraphs has numbers calculated by The Fielding Bible, as well as Hardball Times contributor Bojan Koprivica, suggesting McCann is about league average at throwing out potential base stealers and preventing them from trying, and he is above average at blocking pitches.  McCann appears to add significant value by virtue of his pitch framing ability.  In May, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus wrote, "McCann’s framing skill has saved the Braves almost 125 runs over the past five seasons."  McCann's ability to handle a pitching staff is hard to quantify, but reports are positive.

Weaknesses/Cons

The big concern heading into this season was McCann's shoulder.  He played through shoulder pain in 2012, receiving cortisone shots in August and September.  McCann had surgery in October to repair a torn labrum, and the Braves had enough faith to pick up his $12MM option for 2013 a few days later.  He made his season debut on May 6th and would hit six home runs that month.  McCann's continued health and strong play seems to have quieted concerns about the shoulder, as he garnered his seventh All-Star nod this year.

A left-handed hitter, McCann hasn't done much against southpaws recently.  Since 2012, he's batting .234/.271/.379 against lefties.

McCann has caught over 8,800 regular season innings in his career, and caution is required when throwing big money at a catcher in his 30s.  Former Marlins catcher Charles Johnson rates high on McCann's list of Baseball Reference comparables, and Johnson also caught over 7,000 innings before age 30.  Once he reached 30, Johnson had only 300 games left in the Majors.  Johnson did not have the luxury of the designated hitter, as McCann might, but the offensive bar to be an above average DH or first baseman is higher than at catcher.  McCann's market won't be limited to American League teams, but he'll be a much easier sell if DH is an option in the latter part of the contract.

McCann is likely to receive and turn down a qualifying offer, in which case he will come with the added cost of a first or second round draft pick.

Personal

Brian married his high school sweetheart Ashley, and they reside in Suwanee, Georgia with their son and new baby girl.  Brian is known as a family man.  The family supports the Rally Foundation, which aims to find better treatments of childhood cancer.  Brian's older brother Brad reached Double-A in the Marlins organization, and their father, Howard, coached baseball at Marshall University.  In the clubhouse, Brian is a team leader who is beloved by teammates and fans.  

Market

There is sentiment among baseball executives and agents that McCann will be best served going to the American League, allowing him to spend an increasing number of games at designated hitter as the contract progresses.  On the other hand, free agent signings are about short-term gain, and McCann is a capable backstop at present.  For NL teams, there's always the option of McCann learning first base if catching becomes untenable.  I imagine an NL team would seek a shorter term at a higher average annual value.

The Rangers have tried to acquire McCann via trade in the past, and they're the early speculative favorite.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Phillies, and Dodgers also seem like viable options.

What are the odds McCann signs a new deal with his hometown Braves, the only organization he's ever known?  If the slugger tells agent B.B. Abbott to get him the best possible contract, I think he's likely to move on.

In terms of other starting catchers on the free agent market, there's Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and maybe Dioner Navarro.  That's actually a better selection than in recent years.  As far as power bats in general, there's Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Raul Ibanez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales, and Choo.

Expected Contract

It's difficult to determine whether McCann will get a fifth guaranteed year.  In recent offseasons, position players B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford managed the feat.  None of those players are catchers, nor is McCann a superstar like some of them were.  A team could plan to move him off catcher at the tail end of the deal, but the wear of nearly 9,000 innings behind the dish has already been exacted on McCann's body, and raises durability questions for the future. 

The Werth contract aside, I think a fair average annual value for a very good player who is not a superstar is around $16-17MM.  Ultimately I expect McCann to sign a five-year, $80MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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