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Quick Hits: Tigers, Napoli, Rangers, Rays

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An interesting study by Conor Glassey for his website examines which states big leaguers in the past five years were drafted from. As expected, the warm-weather states of California, Florida and Texas dominate the rankings, together accounting for more than 40 percent of drafted players. However, Illinois high schools were found to be surprisingly productive in developing future big leaguers. Let's round up the latest from around baseball:

  • Buster Olney runs through Max Scherzer rumors in a video for ESPN, concluding that he will "almost certainly not be" traded this winter. The Tigers are in full win-now mode, and other teams are unlikely to surrender major talent for this year's AL Cy Young winner, as he's not expected to sign a long-term extension with Scott Boras as his agent. Scherzer, who's on track to hit free agency after next season, is projected to earn $13.6MM in his final season of arbitration by MLBTR's Matt Swartz.
  • Rick Porcello is "expected" to be traded, Olney says in the same video.
  • The avascular necrosis in Mike Napoli's hips has come up in discussions with some clubs, agent Brian Grieper said in an interview with WEEI, but other teams don't consider it an issue. WEEI's Alex Speier notes that Grieper opted not to disclose whether the first baseman had received a multi-year offer yet.
  • T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com becomes the latest writer to report that Masahiro Tanaka isn't a top target for the Rangers. Offense is more of a priority for Texas this winter, Sullivan writes.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times previews the Rays' potential targets in trade and free agency this offseason. At first base, the Mets' Ike Davis might be an option, along with Logan Morrison of the Marlins, Mitch Moreland of the Rangers, and another Met, Lucas Duda. In free agency, the Rays could attempt to court Corey Hart, Lyle Overbay or Justin Morneau. Topkin also examines possibilities at catcher and closer.

East Notes: Orioles, Yankees, Marlins

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Jason Coskrey looks at the history of the posting system in an article for The Japan Times, arguing that it offers little for Japanese players in its current incarnation. "The [Japan Professional Baseball Players Association] thinks the current system is like an auction in which players are treated as if they’re products," Executive Director Toru Matsubara says. The posting system is a hot topic as of late, as a retooling of the arrangement is currently being negotiated by MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball. However, if Japanese players seek more favorable terms, they'll have to fight for it, Coskrey says.

Let's take a look around the AL and NL East:

  • Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun dismisses suggestions that the Orioles should trade J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters before they reach free agency, writing that the defense they provide up the middle has been invaluable to the team's recent run of success. Instead, baseball operations head Dan Duquette is likely to look to supplement his current club with a midlevel free agent starter such as Tim Hudson, Schmuck writes.
  • Derek Jeter could consider a more limited role for the Yankees if doing so helped the team, his former manager Joe Torre suggests in an article by Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.
  • While painful, the 2012 trade that sent Marlins star Jose Reyes and others to the Blue Jays has positioned the team well for the future, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com says, writing that players such as Jake Marisnick could emerge as franchise cornerstones.
  • The Marlins aren't considering trading righty Nathan Eovaldi, Frisaro writes in his Fish Pond blog, and told teams so at the recent GM meetings. Starter Jacob Turner and first baseman Logan Morrison could become trade chips, however. The team is also considering whether Cardinals third baseman David Freese is an option for their third base job, Frisaro says.

Central Notes: Indians, Royals, Cubs

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Let's take a look at the latest from the MLB's Central divisions:

  • Multiple teams have approached the Indians with interest in Drew Stubbs, Buster Olney writes in an article for ESPN Insiders (sub. req'd). MLBTR's Matt Swartz projected that Stubbs is on track to earn $3.8MM in arbitration this offseason after hitting just .233/.305/.360 in 2013. However, Olney says a salary in that range in today's market is acceptable for a player like Stubbs, who's a strong defender with power and speed and can handle all three outfield positions.
  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian considers a rumored swap of Indians righty Corey Kluber and two minor leaguers for the Angels' Mark Trumbo, which was later shot down by Angels GM Jerry Dipoto. While Trumbo's right-handed power would help the Indians, such a deal undervalues Kluber, who was one of the better starters in the AL for much of 2013, Bastian says.
  • Pitching is the highest priority for the Indians this offseason, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer notes in a reader mailbag column. The Tribe faces the possibility of losing free agents Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir from the rotation, while Joe Smith, Chris Perez, Rich Hill and Matt Albers could all depart from the bullpen.
  • A Wednesday night deadline looms for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft, and for the Royals, that means deciding who from a list of approximately six players is worth protecting, The Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton says. As Dutton notes, it can be easier to stash an arm than a position player on the 40-man for an entire season, as pitchers can be used in a mop-up role in the bullpen.
  • Some have suggested that Darwin Barney may not be long for the Cubs' roster, Carrie Muskat writes in response to a reader question for MLB.com. On the cusp of arbitration after slashing just .208/.266/.303 in 2013, Barney is a non-tender candidate, though MLBTR's Tim Dierkes believes that may be a bit hasty given that Barney's only likely to earn around $2.1MM in his first go at the arbitration process. If the Cubs do decide to part ways with the infielder, Luis Valbuena would be one possible replacement, Muskat says.

NL East Notes: Mets, Phillies, Howard, Maholm

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Here's today's look at the National League East..

  • Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson insisted in a pair of interviews that he fully intends on making a notable move this offseason and isn't just sticking his toe in the water, writes Marc Carig of Newsday.  Alderson said next season will be "a new day" for the franchise, but questions persist about whether the Mets can afford meaningful upgrades, either through free agency or the trade market.
  • Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the $125MM deal signed with Ryan Howard in 2010 is making the Phillies cautious this winter.  GM Ruben Amaro has spent on a big-ticket item in each of the last three seasons but he does not sound like a man willing to splurge this winter.  With that said, Gelb notes that Amaro's public face tends to differ from his true intentions.
  • Jordan Hall of CSNPhilly.com sizes up Paul Maholm and Jason Vargas as possible targets for the Phillies.

AL East Notes: Napoli, Cano, Bogaerts, Orioles

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The Red Sox have options besides re-signing free agent Mike Napoli, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd).  Boston would like to retain him, but he is drawing interest from other clubs and some execs feel that the Rangers and Rockies will be particularly spirited in their pursuits.  However, if Napoli goes elsewhere, the BoSox will net a compensatory draft pick and there are options out there on the open market.  Olney wonders if they might go for someone like Michael Young, Mark Reynolds (.881 career OPS in Fenway Park), or Corey Hart, who will be in line for a one-year deal after missing all of 2013.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is prepared to wait things out in order to get the deal he wants, a person close to Cano tells John Harper of the New York Daily News.  “He’s ready for this to go past Christmas, into January if necessary,” the person said. “He’s been told all along that it could take time for a market to develop for him, and he’s fine with that.” 
  • There are no talks of a long-term deal yet between the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts, but things could change with an impressive 2014 campaign, writes Jason Mastrodonato of MLB.com.
  • Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com wonders if the Orioles' week of talks at the GM Meetings will lead to anything happening.  The O's have limitations, but Dubroff says that they'll go out and get a piece or two if it takes them to the next level.

Minor Moves: Purcey, Lowe, Moore, Miller, Startup

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Pour a tall cup of coffee and open up a Baseball Reference tab. It’s time for this Saturday morning’s minor moves, via the Pacific Coast League and International League transaction pages (except where otherwise noted) …

  • The White Sox have signed lefty David Purcey to a minor league deal. The 31-year-old had rejected an outright assignment from the Sox in late October to become a free agent. Purcey made 24 apperances for the Sox’s major league club in 2013, posting a 2.13 ERA but walking 6 batters per nine innings.
  • The Dodgers signed first baseman/outfielder Jamie Romak to a minor league deal, according to MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (on Twitter).  Romak’s deal includes a July 1st opt out.  The 28-year-old posted a .242/.322/.461 slash line with 22 homers in 134 games for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate last season.
  • Right-handed reliever Mark Lowe, 30, has signed with the Rays, reports ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Lowe was battered in just eleven appearances with the Angels last year, but posted a 3.60 ERA across 2009-12 and has continued to notch high strikeout totals while being stashed in the upper minors. 
  • The Cardinals signed third baseman Scott Moore, a thirty-year-old who has thrived at Triple-A but has yet to have a real shot in the bigs. Last year, over 485 plate appearances in the Oakland and San Diego organizations, he hit .271/.353/.448 with fourteen long balls. In his most extended MLB action, a 2012 stint with the Astros, Moore hit a more-than-respectable .259/.330/.448 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. 
  • Right-hander Jim Miller is back with the Yankees on a minor league pact after making just one MLB appearance last year, an ill-fated inning-and-a-third that resulted in three earned runs. The 31-year-old had been a solid member of the A’s pen just one year prior, however, as he registered a 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 innings for Oakland. Miller did flash a 13.1 K/9 rate during his 63 1/3 Triple-A innings last year, a somewhat intriguing mark given his manageable walk rates. Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com had the news first on Twitter.
  • Lefty reliever Will Startup will stay with the Tigers after he notched a 3.41 ERA in 58 Double-A innings last year. Startup reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old back in 2006, but before joining Detroit had landed with the Sugar Land Skeeters in 2012.
  • The Giants have inked two righties to minor league deals, bringing aboard Jason Berken and Daryl Maday. Berken, 29, has thrown in 110 MLB games, including 28 as a starter, and recorded a 5.36 ERA over 248 2/3 innings. He spent last year at the White Sox’ Triple-A affiliate, where he managed a 3.80 ERA in 161 innings — all as a starter — and posted 6.5 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Meanwhile, at 28 years of age Maday has yet to see San Francisco, but will continue to keep the dream alive in the Giants system. He has bounced between Double-A and Triple-A since 2008, and now serves primarily as a reliever. Last year, Maday notched a cumulative 4.17 ERA in 49 2/3 innings, with 7.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.
  • The Pirates signed first baseman Miles Durham and catcher Francisco Diaz to minor league deals. At age thirty, Durham has spent his entire career in the Pittsburgh organization, other than a brief Independent League stint, and apparently served as a player-coach last season. Dia, 23, has all the markings of a light-hitting backstop (two career home runs in 1,115 plate appearances), though he has reached base at a productive clip in the low minors.
  • Longtime Yankees farmhand Walter Ibarra has agreed to play short in the Cubs organization on a minor league pact. The 26-year-old reached Triple-A for the first time last year. Known for his defense, Ibarra failed to himpress with a cumulative .276/.308/.367 slash across 212 Double-A and Triple-A plate appearances in 2013.
  • And the Nationals have reached agreement with a player by the name of Josh Johnson — not the starting pitcher, but the middle infielder and third baseman who has been in the Nats’ system since 2010. Last year, playing at both of the two highest minor league levels, the 27-year-old Johnson put up an impressive .293/.390/.458 line in 300 trips to the plate. He was especially impressive in his short time at Syracuse, where he had a .924 OPS and was a perfect six-for-six in stolen bases in just 111 plate appearances. Washington also added catcher Sean McCauley to the fold on a minor league pact. The 24-year-old was brought back to professional baseball by the Nats last year in a coaching capacity after losing his career to injury.
  • The Rangers have signed righty Zach Russell away from the Cards’ system. The 24-year-old reliever topped out with a brief Double-A stint last year, but struggled there.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johnson, Tigers, Nats, Price

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On this date in 2010, Roy Halladay joined Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Gaylord Perry as the fifth pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues.  Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Zach can be reached at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.  

Harper, Nationals Have Unresolved Contract Issue

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The five-year major league deal signed by Bryce Harper with the Nationals did not resolve a potentially important issue, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. When time came to iron out the details of Harper's signing-deadline deal, a stalemate emerged over whether or not Harper would be able to opt out if he became eligible for arbitration during the life of the deal. Unable to resolve the issue, the club agreed with agent Scott Boras to a side letter agreement providing that, if it arose, the matter would be resolved by a grievance hearing.

With 1.159 years of service, Harper is not eligible for arbitration this year. However, he is a virtual lock to have sufficient service time to be a Super Two player next year. Because his draft deal runs through 2015, the issue that the parties failed to resolve at the time is very much in play now.

One year of salary may not seem to present a major issue at first glance: Harper stands to earn as much as $2MM in 2015 anyway due to roster bonuses, and his free agency timetable is unaffected. But even an average Harper campaign in 2014 should easily support an advance over Eric Hosmer's Super Two projection of $4.1MM, while a big season could blow that number out of the water. More importantly, perhaps, a Super Two payday could play an important role in setting the baseline for his earnings between 2016-18, during which time Harper will be arb-eligible, significantly raising the stakes. 

As Kilgore well explains, the sides remain in each others' good graces and there are several possible outcomes at this point. There are two extremes. First, the club could simply acquiesce in actually or effectively treating Harper as a Super Two. Second, it could refuse to pay a dime over the 2015 rate provided in the contract, likely leading to a grievance hearing (as contemplated in the deal). Neither seems the most likely outcome, in Kilgore's estimation, and there are plenty of routes that negotiations could take to avoid the issue on a temporary or permanent basis.

Indeed, as Kilgore mentions, the need to negotiate on Harper's contract could provide additional impetus to broader extension talks. Though it remains unclear whether Harper would have any interest in putting free agent years in play, Boras has (perhaps semi-seriously) floated the idea of a dozen-year extension.

Certainly, if any talks were to occur, Boras would seek something exceptional for a player with Harper's ceiling and early-career production at such a young age. Though he accumulated less WAR in his age-20 season than he had in his rookie campaign, that was driven largely by reduced playing time due to injury and his shift to a corner outfield spot. Harper actually substantially improved at the plate: his .274/.368/.486 slash boosted his 121 wRC+ in 2012 up to a 137 mark that placed in the top-25 in all of baseball (minimum 400 at-bats).

In terms of league-wide impact, this appears to be a one-off issue. First, big league deals are no longer permitted for players signed out of the amateur draft. And so far as has been reported, this is the only example in which the issue was left for future resolution. (Also worth mentioning, as Kilgore notes, is that arbitration opt-out clauses were standard in those major league contracts previously inked by drafted players, at least when the length of the deal made arbitration a realistic possibility.)

West Notes: Pujols, Mariners, Astros, Dodgers

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Angels first baseman (and, of late, designated hitter) Albert Pujols sounds optimistic about his injury situation, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports. The slugger says his injured foot "feel[s] 99.9% healthy," and that it was time for surgery after battling his plantar fasciitis for some nine years. He also noted that he continues to do rehab on his knee to avoid a flare-up. How the 33-year-old returns will be among the most impactful on-the-field storylines in baseball, since the Halos still owe him a hard-to-fathom $212MM over the next eight seasons. Once the best player in the game, Pujols now arguably carries more negative value than anybody due to his age, injuries, and massive contract. Elsewhere in baseball's two western divisions …

  • The Mariners have an ambitious off-season wish list, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). Atop the list is a starter to slot in behind Felix Hernandez in the rotation, with Olney speculating that Matt Garza could be a match. Otherwise, the team hopes to add a closer and "two frontline power hitters."
  • If Seattle is serious about checking all those boxes, it hardly needs to be said, it will need to open its wallet. The club's payroll has sat in the mid-$80MM range at Opening Day the last two years, but has gone as high as $117MM (2008). Seattle's future salary commitments sit right about at league average, though virtually all of its future obligations are to Hernandez. As Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs figures, the club's 2014 commitments presently sit at under $40MM, leaving ample room to spend.
  • Though the Astros have a similar set of needs, according to a report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the club will likely set somewhat more modest goals. WIth payroll capacity up to $60MM, Houston will be chasing an outfielder, veteran starter, and bullpen pieces. Manager Bo Porter indicated that the club has been in contact with some free agent options, but is mostly gathering information and waiting for the market to develop. "As the market starts to shake out," said Porter, "we'll get more aggressive for the guys we believe will really make an impact on our ballclub." 
  • Looking past 2014, the Astros have just one player under contract in second baseman Jose Altuve. The team will, however, start to see a modest increase in its tab next year as players like J.D. Martinez, Brett Wallace, and Chris Carter reach arbitration eligibility, and Jason Castro gets to his second arb campaign. As with the Mariners, Houston's low 2014 obligations (just $14.4MM, per Thurm's estimate) could leave it with significant room to add salary this coming season.
  • The Dodgers want to add a starter, but only on a short-term deal, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Los Angeles is not interested in going past two years or losing a draft pick to ink a new arm, says Rosenthal. The former limitation would seem to take the club out of contention for any top-tier arms, while the latter means that the club is not considering an attempt to lure Hiroki Kuroda back to Chavez Ravine. 
  • While I will not belabor the point, this news makes sense in light of the fact that the Dodgers have far-and-away the greatest salary commitments in the game both next year and beyond.

MLBTR Seeking Comment Moderators

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