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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds had a seemingly successful season in 2013, but an early exit from the playoffs, apparent tensions in their clubhouse, and the possible departure of a star outfielder have led to uncertainty about their future. The Reds still have a strong core in place, but they could go in a number of directions this offseason, some of them franchise-changing.

Guaranteed contracts:

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

The 2013 Reds won 90 or more games for the third time in the past four seasons, but that doesn't mean that all is well in Cincinnati. The team fired manager Dusty Baker after the season, frustrated that it couldn't handle the Pirates in a regular-season-ending three-game set in Cincinnati or a one-game playoff in Pittsburgh. (The Reds quickly replaced him with pitching coach Bryan Price.) Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who set the table brilliantly with a .423 on-base percentage, is a free agent. And on top of all that, the team will reportedly try to trade star second baseman Brandon Phillips.

Phillips' situation is unusual. The Reds owe him $50MM through 2017. He's getting older, is coming off a down season, and is developing a reputation as a clubhouse problem, so the Reds aren't likely to get much for him. Nonetheless, his contract, while far from great, isn't terrible, given the escalating cost of wins on the free-agent market. One would think that a good, but aging, second baseman with a long history with the Reds would have more value with his current, contending team than with potential trade partners. But the Reds, fed up with Phillips' attitude, apparently feel that isn't the case.

Phillips aside, the Reds appear set in the infield. Joey Votto is one of baseball's best hitters, and he's signed long-term. (Very long-term — he'll make $25MM per year from 2018 through 2023.) Shortstop Zack Cozart and third baseman Todd Frazier are coming off solid seasons, thanks in part to their good gloves. Cozart isn't a strong offensive player, so he'll need to keep fielding well to be effective, but his 2013 season was certainly good enough to pencil him in at shortstop next year. With Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds will likely stand pat at catcher; those two combined for just 0.4 WAR in 2013, but there's reason to hope that Mesoraco, at least, will improve, due to his youth.

Jay Bruce will man right field, and Ryan Ludwick will likely occupy at least a platoon role in left, with the Reds hoping for a full recovery from the shoulder injury that limited him in 2013. If Choo departs, Billy Hamilton would be the obvious candidate to replace him. Hamilton demonstrated down the stretch that his world-class speed is a tremendous weapon. Between his baserunning and the fact that, unlike Choo, he's a legitimate center fielder, it's not ridiculous to hope that the gap between Hamilton and Choo might not be that big, although Hamilton's .308 on-base percentage at Louisville last season is a warning sign. If Choo signs elsewhere, the number of options that would obviously improve on Hamilton is fairly limited, barring a kamikaze pursuit of Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson in free agency. Perhaps signing a cheap center fielder, like Rajai Davis, Andres Torres or Franklin Gutierrez, or a trade for someone like Peter Bourjos, might make sense as an insurance policy. In any case, the Reds' decision to extend Choo a qualifying offer will be a no-brainer.

In the rotation, the Reds will have Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani. Those five could be the basis of a very good rotation, but the Reds will need depth — as it stands, Pedro Villarreal or Greg Reynolds would be the next up if someone got hurt. The obvious solution would be to re-sign Bronson Arroyo, but he doesn't seem likely to return, and maybe that's for the best. Tim Dierkes predicts that Arroyo will receive a two-year, $24MM deal on the open market, and that seems like a lot to pay for a righty whose fastball barely cracks 87 MPH, who doesn't get many ground balls, and who will be 37 before the start of the 2014 season. Given that the Reds already have five solid rotation options, the better solution might be to hope that Arroyo settles for less, or to look for someone cheaper as their depth option.

The bullpen looks relatively set, with a core of J.J. Hoover, Sam LeCure, Jonathan Broxton, rubber-armed Alfredo Simon and a healthy Sean Marshall backing up star closer Aroldis Chapman. The Reds did have mediocre lefty Zach Duke pitching in key situations down the stretch, so it might not be a bad idea to pursue another left-hander to complement Chapman and Marshall — re-signing Manny Parra, who was effective in 2013, might make sense.

Despite a capable pitching staff and a lineup that's reasonably well-stocked with players who are at least decent, the coming offseason could mark a turning point for the Reds. Baker's firing indicates that they aren't satisfied where they are, and in a tough NL Central  (with a perennial powerhouse in St. Louis, a suddenly-relevant Pirates club and a rebuilding Cubs team that could be strong sooner rather than later), maybe they're right not to be. It wouldn't be a shock, then, to see the Reds pull off some outside-the-box move this offseason, along the lines of their signing of Chapman a few years back. (For example, the Reds didn't end up signing Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero, but they did scout him extensively.)

In any case, the outcome of the Reds' offseason may hinge on Choo and Phillips. Choo's suitors could include everyone from the Cubs to the Mets to the Astros. GM Walt Jocketty has said that re-signing Choo might be tricky. But the Reds might be able to manage it, perhaps by saving money in a Phillips trade and allowing Arroyo to depart via free agency.

For Phillips, one destination could be Atlanta, with the Braves potentially shipping Dan Uggla and a prospect to Cincinnati. Uggla's home-run power would likely play well at the Great American Ballpark, but he would be a big defensive downgrade, and he hit .179/.309/.362 last season. The Reds would have to make up the difference between Phillips and Uggla elsewhere on the diamond, and that wouldn't be easy. Phillips may give the Reds headaches, but by attempting to trade him, they may just be creating another one. Despite playing a corner outfielder in center field, the Reds led baseball in defensive efficiency in 2013. Their fielding was a boon for their pitchers, who posted an ERA nearly half a run lower than their FIP. It would be odd if the Reds began their offseason by replacing one of their most valuable defensive players.

The Uggla rumor might be an unlikely one — he wouldn't save the Reds money, at least not through 2015, so swapping him for Phillips would be an unambiguous step backwards for the Reds that wouldn't give them much chance of making up for it in the short term. But in any case, the Reds will have to be creative this offseason. They could sign a starting pitcher, then deal from their rotation depth for help in the outfield. Bailey, who is set for free agency after the 2014 season, is a wild card; the Reds could trade him, or try to sign him to a long-term deal. The Reds begin their offseason with a number of balls in the air, and when April comes, it's unclear who will be around to catch them.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Yankees

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Yankees are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

With 97 holds over the last three seasons, Robertson is tied with Joel Peralta for the most in baseball.  Arbitration will reward him with a true setup man salary, and if he takes over the team's closing role in 2014 and succeeds, he'll do well in free agency.  

Gardner enters his contract year as well, after posting a career-best 609 plate appearances in 2013 while also establishing personal bests in doubles, triples, home runs, and as you might expect, slugging percentage and isolated power.  His first full-time season in center field went well, and he adds value in a lot of different ways.  Though Gardner is 30 years old and has yet to earn even $3MM in a season, free agent years could reasonably cost as much as $10MM apiece.  If Gardner is amenable to a team-friendly pact in the vein of Carlos Gomez's three-year, $24MM deal, the Yankees should jump on it, but they seem likely to keep with their policy of waiting.

Nova broke camp as in the Yankees' rotation, hitting the DL in April for a triceps injury.  Shortly after his return in late May, he was optioned to Triple-A.  After being recalled in late June, Nova posted a 2.70 ERA in 116 2/3 innings, locking in a rotation spot for 2014.  At this stage, only he and C.C. Sabathia are penciled in. 

Kelley didn't start or finish strong, but for the bulk of the season he was the Yankees' seventh inning guy and has a bullpen spot for next year.  Cervelli had a rough year, breaking his hand on a foul tip in late April and then getting slapped with a 50-game suspension in August for ties to Biogenesis.  The silver lining was that he was able to serve the suspension while on the DL.  For a million bucks, I think the Yankees will keep him around for 2014.

Nix and Stewart are backups who both played more than the Yankees planned this year, and are non-tender candidates.

Assuming the Yankees tender contracts to Robertson, Gardner, Nova, Kelley, and Cervelli, they're looking at an estimated $14.8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Manager Notes: Gibson, Tigers, Jewett, Ripken

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With Bryan Price set to take the helm in Cincinnati, Jim Leyland leaving Detroit, and Don Mattingly making something of a power play in L.A., today was a busy day on the field staff front. Here are some other notes on managerial situations around the league:

  • We can expect a trend moving away from high-profile managerial hirings, says Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. With both of the current World Series contenders relying on under-the-radar options who had experience in their organizations, other teams may follow suit. (Indeed, the Reds seem to have done just that.)
  • He may be a Tigers hero, but Kirk Gibson will remain the Diamondbacks skipper, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Both club and manager apparently assured each other that they want to continue the relationship into next year, according to team CEO Derrick Hall, although Hall also acknowledged that the team had declined to exercise options it held to control Gibson through the 2016 season.
  • While that takes one possible option away from the Tigers as they look to find a Leyland replacement, the team will take its time assessing a wide field of potential candidates, writes MLB.com's Jason Beck. The team does have internal options with managerial experience in Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon — the latter of whom is a more likely target — and Dombrowski says he has no intentions of "chang[ing] the culture" after a nice run of success. 
  • The Nationals have interviewed the club's third base coach, Trent Jewett, for its opening, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. He joins bench coach Randy Knorr and outside candidates Matt Williams and Brad Ausmus as options that have had the chance to chat with GM Mike Rizzo. Both Jewett and Knorr are said to have interviewed strongly, Kilgore tweets, but for his money Williams is the odds-on favorite at the moment.
  • Meanwhile, Kilgore further reports, Cal RIpken is not looking like a realistic possibility to take over in D.C. Kilgore also explores whether the opening in Detroit might impact the Nats' plans, concluding that it likely will not.  

Minor Moves: Green, Kroenke, Narveson, Lalli

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Here are the day's minor moves …

  • The Brewers have re-signed corner infielder Taylor Green to a minor league deal after he was recently outrighted, agent Joshua Kusnick announced via Twitter (hat tip to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Andrew Gruman of FOXSportsWisconsin.com). The contract includes several opt outs and an invitation to big league spring training. Though the 27-year-old missed most of 2013 due to injury, he has a nice .311/.386/.513 line in parts of two seasons at the highest minor league level. His major league career line is less impressive — .207/.266/.343 — but it has come in just 154 plate appearances over two seasons. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy has the details. 
  • The club is also close to reaching a deal to bring back lefty Zach Kroenke, who is also represented by Kusnick, McCalvy reports in the same link. Kroenke has spent much of his time in Triple-A since 2009, splitting time between relieving and starting. Last year, he put up a 4.51 ERA in 129 2/3 innings. His deal does not include an invitation to MLB spring training.
  • Meanwhile, both lefty Chris Narveson and catcher/first baseman Blake Lalli have elected to become minor league free agents, notes McCalvy via Twitter. The news was originally tweeted by the Brewers Player Development account. Narveson, who spent 2010 and 2011 in the Milwaukee rotation but has not seen substantial MLB time since, was outrighted back in June. He posted a 5.14 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this past season. Lalli, who was designated and then outrighted in September, has never been given a real chance in the bigs, but did put up a .282/.334/.447 line in 311 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
  • The White Sox recently dealt for first baseman Jackson Laumann, sending the Braves cash considerations in return, reports Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. Laumann, a 20-year-old righty, has done little to impress in rookie ball but will get a new shot with an organization whose amateur scouting department is headed by his father, Doug Laumann.
  • Alex Castellanos of the Dodgers remains the only player in DFA limbo at present, as reflected in MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Twins are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Plouffe received 57 more plate appearances in 2013 than 2012, but hit 10 fewer home runs.  He may be better served as a platoon option at third base moving forward, but he's still worth retaining at this price.  

Duensing had his first season of full-time relief pitching and was serviceable with a 3.98 ERA in 61 innings.  He was dominant against lefties, and could have more success in a LOOGY role.  Swarzak led all of MLB with 96 relief innings, posting a strong 2.91 ERA.  Both pitchers should be part of the Twins' bullpen in 2014.

Assuming the Twins tender contracts to Plouffe, Duensing, and Swarzak, they're looking at an estimated $4.8MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals failed to repeat their 98-win 2012 campaign, but were the best National League team not to qualify for the 2013 post-season. With the team's core still fully intact, the Nats surely hope to climb back atop the NL East in 2014.

Guaranteed Contracts

 Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

The Nationals are loaded with young, cost-controlled talent that is still in or approaching its prime. Much the same unit combined to bag nearly 100 wins just one year ago. Owner Ted Lerner is one of the richest in the game; the club already ratcheted up payroll going into 2013; and Washington recently extended and promoted Mike Rizzo, the front office man who built the current club and will guide it for the foreseeable future. Sounds pretty promising. 

Then again, these pieces led manager Davey Johnson to declare 2013 a "World Series or bust" year, and the team failed even to earn a chance to compete for a ring. And now, the team's guru-skipper is himself riding off into the sunset. Priority number one for Rizzo will be finding the right man to take the helm. Internal options Trent Jewett or Randy Knorr could be asked to take the torch, or the team could look outside the organization to candidates like Brad Ausmus or Matt Williams. 

As for the on-field components, Rizzo has shown a penchant for acting opportunistically, rather than just filling needs, over the last two off-seasons. With Edwin Jackson in 2012 and Haren in 2013, Rizzo targeted veteran pitchers he liked for a bounceback. Last year's signing of Soriano to a heavily deferred deal was an unexpected stroke. And he swung two trades that remade the club's outfield, ultimately adding Span and pitching prospects A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen, and Ian Krol while parting with Michael Morse and top minor league arm Alex Meyer. Though the signings have not worked out quite as anticipated, the trades look to have been beneficial in the aggregate. And Rizzo surely remains undeterred in his confident, decisive approach.

But what bold strokes might the Nats' head man have in mind for 2014? The club has few positions obviously ripe for upgrade. In particular, the club's starting outfield is unlikely to change, with Harper and Werth entrenched at the corners and Span holding down center field. Though there have been rumblings that the Nats could move on from Span just one season after installing him, he rebounded from a slow start to deliver just what the team expected when it dealt for him: a league-average bat, twenty swipes, and outstanding defense in center, good for 3.5 fWAR and 2.4 rWAR. He remains a very nice bridge to the team's top overall prospect, Brian Goodwin, who could arrive by 2015.

In the infield, three spots are virtual locks. The shortstop Desmond has established himself among the league's best, and the only question is whether — and at what price – he'll be extended. Zimmerman's throwing woes at third abated enough that he won't yet be moved across the diamond. And the backstop Ramos, who returned from ACL surgery to his promising trajectory, could himself be an interesting target for a long-term deal. 

The other two infield positions are probably also set, barring some complicated maneuvering. At first base, the team returns LaRoche, who is still owed $14MM (including his 2015 buyout). There has been some suggestion that the Nats could look to upgrade here after the veteran's sluggish 2013, which may have been caused in part by weight loss issues that the team hopes to be able to address going forward. But for the team to sell low and eat salary to move one of its valued clubhouse members, it would need a very good reason. Washington was reportedly interested in Jose Dariel Abreu, for instance, but not at anything close to the price he ultimately commanded. Unless a golden opportunity arises, an acquisition at first seems improbable.

Indeed, a more plausible (but still unlikely) means by which the smooth-swinging lefty might be displaced would be if ownership empties its wallet for this year's top overall free agent target, second baseman Robinson Cano. But Rendon is already on hand. He is a cheap, high-upside 23-year-old who had a solid rookie campaign, showing the ability to play second and maintaining a league-average batting line after minimal seasoning (326 minor league at-bats). Washington could dump LaRoche and employ some combination of Cano, Zimmerman, and Rendon to play the 3-through-5 positions, or even trade the valuable youngster. But the likely breathtaking commitment that Cano will command could hamstring the club's efforts to retain its homegrown stars down the line. Rizzo may kick the tires on Cano, but Rendon remains highly likely to man the keystone next year.

Of course, the team also still has Danny Espinosa in the fold in the middle infield. The low-contact switch hitter saw his stock plummet (and missed qualifying for arbitration) after a disastrous (28 OPS+) start to 2013. Though he could be dealt, the club would hate to sell so low on a player with Espinosa's upside. And while the 26-year-old could make the roster as a reserve, it seems more likely he'll provide injury insurance while working to rebuild his offensive game — and trade value — in Triple-A. 

Whether or not it includes Espinosa, the Nats' bench must improve on its sub-replacement-level 2013. Other backup middle infield possibilities include the limited-but-sturdy Steve Lombardozzi and minor leaguers Jeff Kobernus (who showed nice speed and on-base ability at Triple-A last year with 42 swipes and a .366 OBP) and Zach Walters (who flashed rare power for a shortstop with 29 International League bombs). Tyler Moore hit well after a mid-season run at Triple-A, but doesn't play third and may be redundant with Hairston as an outfield option. Corey Brown, 27, may have an outside shot at Roger Bernadina's old role or could be traded away. Behind the dish, minor leaguers Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano seem ready to fill a backup role. Of course, Rizzo could well pursue a veteran or two rather than relying on those options. What is most clear, however, is that the club will be in search of a left-handed bench bat. The team is likely to let Chad Tracy walk after a sub-par 2013. A relatively direct free agent replacement might be found (e.g., Luke Scott). Or the club could seek more utility from a player like short-time Nat David DeJesus.

Situational lefties, it would appear, are something of a theme in Washington. After leaving the LOOGY role essentially unfilled to start 2013, the Nats are widely expected to peruse the market for help on that side of the bullpen. And the club could look to add other arms as well. But the relief corps may receive less of an overhaul than many commentators have suggested. On the whole, it was about as effective this season (3.0 fWAR, 3.56 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.79 xFIP) as it was the year prior (3.4 fWAR, 3.23 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 4.01 xFIP). And the team has internal options. Though an established lefty will certainly appear on Rizzo's shopping list, all of the team's primary left-handed pen arms last year — Fernando Abad, Xavier Cedeno, and Krol — are under team control and short of arbitration eligibility. The closer job remains Soriano's to lose, even if his leash has shortened. Clippard and Storen will be the top setup men, unless one is traded (which is probably the most interesting situation to watch). And Stammen's role will continue to grow after another sturdy campaign. Otherwise, the club has some reasonably promising internal options that it could use to fill things out. Ryan Mattheus, Erik Davis, and even Christian Garcia and Aaron Barrett all spring to mind. Finally, one or more of the odd men out of the rotation will likely wind up in relief as a long man.

And that leads us to what is, perhaps, the most intriguing area of the off-season for the Nationals. The top of the rotation is set, with Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann making up one of the best and most cost-efficient front three in the game. If healthy, Detwiler should get another shot after missing much of 2013. Beyond those four, the team could choose to allow Ohlendorf to compete with the emergent Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan for the fifth slot that will be vacated by Haren, leaving the losers to supplement the pen or provide depth in Syracuse. A rising Nathan Karns could also push for a role with a big spring after getting his first taste of the bigs last year, and other solid arms are moving through the system with him, headlined by Cole. 

But while the club certainly has sufficient options on hand, Rizzo could make a big impact with one move in the rotation. Though it would be surprising to see the Nats hand out a lengthy contract to any of this year's free agents, the acquisition of a high-quality veteran who won't compromise the budget long-term could be the most direct, least risky way to boost the club for 2014. Rizzo could conceivably target a veteran arm like Tim Hudson, offer yet another pillow contract, or even pursue a trade, though it is somewhat difficult to imagine the Nats giving up the kind of top-end young talent that will be needed to land a David Price.

If Rizzo dabbles in the trade market at all — whether for a starter or otherwise — one asset group he could use as currency is the mid-tier, MLB-ready talent that is backed up at Triple-A. Though Washington will likely value its few premier prospects quite highly, it could be open to dealing from the aforementioned middle infielders (Kobernus and Walters) and pitchers (Jordan, Karns, et al.). Likewise, speedy center fielder Eury Perez, 23, was strong in Triple-A last year but has Span in front of him and Goodwin and Michael Taylor behind.

Assuming they tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, the Nats figure to enter the off-season already nearing (if not exceeding) the franchise-high 2012 opening day tab of just under $120MM. Lerner has hinted that the club went over its own, flexible internal budget last year, which obviously did not turn out as expected. But the Nationals' window is unquestionably open, attendance is on the rise, and a healthy splash would help to stir up continued interest in a growing fan base.

Some money and attention probably will be earmarked for extensions, with Desmond and Zimmermann being the most pressing candidates. (As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier today in assessing the team's arbitration eligibles, it could cost the Nats upwards of $100MM for the former and around $85MM for the latter.) And moves will be made to improve the team around the fringes. But ultimately, for an organization that learned firsthand that big projections and talent aren't enough in the fickle game of baseball, tinkering with the bench and pen may not be enough. A significant move — a signing, trading, or both — seems reasonably likely to be in the offing.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Reds are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year.  28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year.  Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point.  If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent.  Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return.  Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.

Leake is also looking at a large salary bump after posting a career-best 3.37 ERA in 192 1/3 innings.  He lacks the upside of Bailey, but with two years of control some teams might prefer him.  An extension is another option, though there are few recent comparables from Leake's service class.  A five-year contract worth $40MM+ could be fair, though Leake's low strikeout rate should give the Reds pause.

Despite being signed through 2014, Chapman gets to go through the arbitration process and take his $3MM salary as a bonus.  Assuming the bonus is not factored into the closer's projection, we have him at $4.6MM.  The Reds will find that closers can get expensive in a hurry through arbitration, especially with strong ones in Chapman's service class like Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Greg Holland potentially pushing him up.  I think it's best to go year-to-year with Chapman, as the potential reward of buying out his free agent years starting in 2017 outweighs the risk of guaranteeing him a walk-prone reliever significant money when you don't have to.

Hanigan, a rare OBP-oriented catcher, has finished a three-year deal and enters his contract year.  An oblique strain, a sore thumb, an ankle injury, and a wrist strain hampered him in 2013, helping keep his salary down in the range of a backup.  It makes sense to retain him.  

Heisey continued to show pop against left-handed pitching, though his overall .237 average was a career worst.  He's due a mild raise, and even if the Reds were to look in another direction, a team would might take him on in trade.  Paul's success against right-handed pitching continued, and the 28-year-old has developed into a useful extra outfielder.

Simon finished third in MLB with 87 2/3 relief innings, and is locked in for next year after posting a 2.87 ERA.  LeCure was even better, with a 2.66 ERA and strong strikeout rate in 61 frames.

As a 37-year-old third catcher, Miller will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

Assuming the Reds retain Bailey, Leake, Chapman, Hanigan, Heisey, Simon, Paul, and LeCure, the Reds are looking at a projected $27.4MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

The Latest On Odrisamer Despaigne

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It's been a busy week for Cuban defectors, with Jose Dariel Abreu signing a record six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox last week and Alexander Guerrero agreeing to a deal with the Dodgers for $28MM over four years earlier today.

Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald writes that another Cuban defector, right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, has worked out for teams in Spain but plans to travel to Mexico to put on a bigger showcase for MLB clubs (Spanish link). According to Ebro, the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Mariners and Mets have all seen Despaigne throw in Barcelona, but the showcase in Mexico "will have a more official character."

Despaigne's agent, Jaime Torres (also the agent for Jose Contreras, Alexei Ramirez and Yasiel Puig), tells Ebro that he and his client will negotiate a big league contract with a team in Mexico:

"Everything's ready and the paperwork arrived quickly for Odrisamer. Since word got out about his escape, teams from the Majors began to get interested in the young man, and this interest has continued growing. In Mexico he'll try out in front of the scouts, and we'll negotiate the contract there."

Despaigne, who pitched this season at 26 years of age, is a veteran of eight seasons in Cuba's Serie Nacional. He owns a lifetime 51-39 record with a 3.65 ERA but was much better in his final season, posting an ERA of just 2.58. According to a recent report from Diario De Cuba, Despaigne has yet to be cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Thanks to MLBTR's Nick Collias for providing the translation for this post.

Mattingly’s Option Vests; Return In 2014 Still Uncertain

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With Dodgers brass addressing the media today following their defeat at the hands of the Cardinals in the NLCS, manager Don Mattingly told reporters, including Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, that his $1.4MM option for the 2014 season vested when the Dodgers won the National League Division Series. However, Mattingly added that his return in 2014 wasn't a sure thing, as he didn't enjoy his status as a lame-duck manager on a one-year deal in 2013. He said that he would like his entire coaching staff to return as well, but GM Ned Colletti declined comment when asked if he felt the same (All Twitter links).

As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (on Twitter), Mattingly's delivered his candid comment while sitting just six feet away from Colletti. Schulman adds the following quote from Mattingly, noting that he's basically challenging ownership and Colletti to give him a contract extension: "I love it here, but I don't want to be anywhere I'm not wanted."

Mattingly's contract status has been an ongoing narrative for quite some time, given the Dodgers' surge to the NL West title and an NLCS berth following a dreadful start. Given the plethora of open managerial positions around the league — the Nats, Mariners, Tigers, Reds and Cubs are all hunting for new skippers — Mattingly figures to have plenty of leverage in negotiating an extension with the Dodgers. He'd also have ample opportunity to find a managerial position with another club, should the Dodgers stick to their guns and try to keep him on a one-year deal.

Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Nationals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Zimmermann posted the best season of his career in 2013, with 213 1/3 innings of 3.25 ball.  He also tied for the NL lead with 19 wins, a number that looks great in arbitration especially with a previous career high of 12.  He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2009, and beginning in 2011 posted full season ERAs of 3.18, 2.94, and 3.25.  Zimmermann picked up his first All-Star nod this year as well.  It's difficult to find a hole in his arbitration case, and a hefty raise is in order for his third time through.  Four years ago, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez signed five-year deals in the $80MM range.  Having been a Super Two player, Zimmermann would probably require at least $85MM over five years.  The price has gone up since last year, with negotiations expected with the Nationals this winter.  The righty told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in August, "I like it here. Obviously, it's the only place that I know. It would be nice to stay long term, but it has to be something fair. I'm just not going to do a team-friendly deal just to stay here long term. If it's a fair deal, then obviously, we'll definitely think about it. But I'm not going to give a huge team discount. Just something fair is all I ask."

Desmond is another extension candidate, after proving 2012 was no fluke by putting up another 20 home run season and duplicating that year's 5.0 wins above replacement.  Like Zimmermann, Desmond hasn't jumped at a team-friendly offer yet, and his price tag continues to rise.  Elvis Andrus doesn't have much on Desmond aside from age, and he inked an eight-year, $120MM extension with the same amount of service time as Desmond.  That contract covered all free agent years, since the Rangers had already locked up Andrus' arbitration seasons, and also includes opt-outs after the fourth and fifth years.  Andrus doesn't have Desmond's power, so it's hard to consider them a match.  On the other hand, Desmond isn't in Troy Tulowitzki territory.  I think one way or another, the Nationals will have to go past $100MM to lock up their shortstop long-term, especially if Desmond insists on receiving eight guaranteed years like Andrus did.

Having compiled 110 holds and 33 saves in his career, Clippard continues to climb up the arbitration ladder.  His projected $6.2MM salary is in the range a quality free agent setup man might receive.  While he's under control for 2015 as well, his salary at that point will be no bargain.  Clippard has given the Nationals five solid seasons, and I wonder if this calls for the old mantra of trading a player a year early rather than a year late.  Clippard might still bring solid value on the trade market, especially if an older reliever like Grant Balfour gets something like $18MM over two years.

Another reason Clippard could be on the move is the comments he made in July regarding the Nationals' handling of his friend and fellow reliever Storen.  "I just think it’s been handled very poorly," Clippard told reporters of Storen's demotion to Triple-A.  Storen himself could be dealt instead after posting a 4.52 ERA in 2013.  He did, however, manage a 1.40 ERA in 19 1/3 innings after his recall in mid-August.

Continuing the Nationals' list of big-name arbitration cases, Strasburg is up for the first time following 183 innings of 3.00 ball, in a season that included forearm tightness and a DL stint for a lat strain.  A mere eight wins on the season serves to limit his salary, and the budding ace will remain affordable in the near-term.  Technically, we would have projected him at $3.4MM had he not earned $3.9MM in 2012, so we expect little to no raise.  The Nats control Strasburg through 2016, at which point the Boras client might pursue a big free agent payday at age 28.

A strained oblique and a back strain limited Detwiler to 13 starts, with his last one coming on July 3rd.  His arbitration salary is justified, though the Nats could slot Tanner Roark and a free agent into the fourth and fifth slots in the 2014 rotation and move Detwiler.

Ramos is in good standing as the team's starting catcher, though a recurring hamstring injury limited him to 78 games on the season.  He still hit a career-best 16 home runs.  If the Nats can handle the injury risk, they could try to steal Ramos' arbitration years at $10MM or less, as happened with Nick Hundley, Carlos Ruiz, and Chris Iannetta.

Ohlendorf joined the organization on a minor league deal in January, having his contract purchased in June and staying on as a swingman thereafter but spending time on the DL in August for a shoulder injury.  He was pretty good overall in 60 1/3 innings, probably enough so to be tendered a contract.

Assuming Zimmermann, Desmond, Clippard, Storen, Strasburg, Detwiler, Ramos, and Ohlendorf are tendered contracts, the Nationals are looking at an estimated $37.3MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

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