Last October, despite some questions about his ability, Cuban slugger Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox heading into his age-27 season. Abreu’s MLB debut exceeded the most optimistic expectations, and now another Cuban player known for huge power is about to burst on the scene: Yasmany Tomas. Tomas, just 24 in November, defected from Cuba in June and should be granted MLB free agency shortly. He’s a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder with five years in Cuba’s Serie Nacional under his belt, and that experience, paired with his age, makes him exempt from international spending limitations. Teams will be able to spend whatever they wish to sign him.
Strengths/Pros
The opportunity to sign a potential star player for his prime years comes along at most only a handful of times each year, typically with players coming out of Cuba or Japan. Abreu was heading into his age 27 season, younger than any normal free agent but still potentially catching some decline at the tail end of his contract. Since Tomas turns 24 in November, a seven-year deal would conclude with his age-30 season. He really couldn’t be much younger without being subject to each team’s international signing bonus pool money, which currently tops out around $5MM and includes a 100% tax on overages of 10% or more.
Tomas’ best attribute is his power, a trait that is in short supply in today’s game. Only 14 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2013, and fewer might reach that threshold this year. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, wrote Baseball America’s Ben Badler in June, so he profiles as one of those rare 30+ home run bats. “He’s got a ton of power,” countryman Rusney Castillo told WEEI’s Rob Bradford through a translator this month. Tomas has produced a .290/.345/.504 throughout his career in Cuba, although those numbers include a pair of seasons in which he slugged just .385 (2009-10) when he was still a teenager.
Though Tomas checks in at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, he’s “agile for his size,” according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Sanchez also says Tomas has a strong arm, so he fits the typical right field profile (some teams may prefer him in left, of course).
One more plus: Tomas is not subject to a qualifying offer, so the cost will be entirely financial. Other free agent hitters like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera, and Nelson Cruz are expected to receive and turn down qualifying offers and therefore require forfeiture of a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
Badler wrote in his June scouting report that Tomas has below-average speed. More recently, Badler cited scouts who clocked Tomas at 6.9 seconds in the 60-yard dash at his Sunday showcase, which could be considered average speed.
Tomas may need some Triple-A seasoning, delaying his 2015 MLB impact. Badler noted that Tomas’ most recent season in Cuba wasn’t his best, writing, “This past season in Cuba…Tomas seemed to regress, even losing playing time in the second half, which one source said was the result of an arm injury he sustained crashing into an outfield wall in February.” Word is that Tomas has no physical issues currently.
Badler also noted that Tomas has shown some “swing-and-miss tendencies” and can struggle with quality breaking stuff. According to Sanchez, Tomas is “characterized as ’high-risk, high-reward’ type of player in some international scouting circles.” He seems to come with a lesser reputation and less certainty than Abreu did last year. Not much has been written about Tomas’ defense, except that Sanchez feels the player has room for improvement.
Personal
Sanchez spent time with Tomas prior to his showcase this month, and was struck by his “youthful enthusiasm.” According to longtime friend Carlos Damas, Tomas is “always laughing.” I’ve heard Tomas likes to play video games in his spare time, and is often seen outside playing stickball with local kids.
The son of a fuel truck driver, Tomas is one of six children. As you might expect, the slugger found it very difficult to leave his home country.
Market
Tomas’ showcase in the Dominican Republic drew hundreds of scouts, wrote Badler. It is believed that nearly every team in baseball had a presence. MLB Network’s Peter Gammons pegged the Giants as the early favorite, also naming the Phillies, Padres, Rangers, and Tigers as potential front-runners. The Phillies had a private showcase with Tomas on Monday; the Rangers host him today. On Monday, Badler named the Rangers, Phillies, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Mets as teams with a strong presence at Tomas’ showcase. The Marlins and Pirates were also known to be in attendance.
Expected Contract
Tomas’ agent Jay Alou told Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald in early September that he expects to top the record contract for a Cuban player, which is Rusney Castillo’s seven-year, $72.5MM deal with the Red Sox signed in August. While a six-year deal is possible for Tomas, seven makes more sense, especially if Tomas is not expecting to spend all of 2015 in the Majors. Seven years also gives the opportunity of increasing the overall contract total.
I believe Abreu’s stellar season inflated the Cuban market, leading to a likely inferior player in Castillo to top his total guarantee less than one year later. Nothing pays in free agency like power, so I agree with Alou’s expectation of continuing to raise the bar beyond Castillo’s $72.5MM. On September 14th, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe passed along the opinion of one international scout who feels Tomas could command $100MM. Tomas’ range seems wide right now. I see about $80MM as the floor, and $110MM as the ceiling. My prediction at present: $105MM over seven years.
Photo courtesy of Alyson Boyer Rode.
Tigers looking for Hunters replacement
I do not see the Tigers just letting T. Hunter walk away, being that he is a proven commodity. That said the Tigers pushed right up to luxury thresholds this year. The Tigers commitment to payroll before
dropping a dime to cover the potential lose of Scherzer, Hunter, V-Mart plus several other minors such as Coke, Johnson, Chamberlain,
is already at 138mm$ adding Y. Tomas is or could push you out of resigning top priorities to your pitching which is your stronghold..
Hunter is 39, how much longer can he really play?
Must not be a baseball fan, Hunter has had a really nice year this year, if age is your only factor in your comment, I still say they will resign Hunter maybe for about 6-8mm to mentor Tomas if they can add him..
How many 40 year old regulars are there still in baseball?
Age is a huge factor when you get to the late 30’s.
Mets wanna say that they have “payroll flexibility”. Prove it by going hard for this kid.
Payroll flexibility is a bad vibe “word”. Considering that Duda, Gee, Murphy, Parnell, E. Young, Tejada, Mejia, Decker are all raises through arbitration, with Duda, Gee, Murphy and Recker due for substantial raises, unless you can find someone to take Colon off your hands and find another 5-8mm the Mets will be hard pressed to make that substantial a commitment to Tomas. I do contend that it would be a really nice fit for your team..
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not buying the payroll flexibility talk, as us Met fans have heard the same exact talk the last few years, but ended with Chris Young/Bobby Abreu signings. EY, Parnell, Tejada, Colon, Niese are just some guys that may be hitting the trade market this winter or are non-tender candidates (at least, the first three I mentioned are).
I’ll go with Seattle.
I don’t think so.
They had a $90MM payroll this year, and they are already devoting $48MM of that every year to Cano/Felix. Getting Tomas too locks up too much payroll in too few players for a lower budget team.
Tigers have 98mm locked up for 6players.
And you can swing things like that with a $160MM payroll.
Get real. The Mariners have a lot of money to spend. They own their own Roots Franchise cable deal that is very lucrative and they broadcast in at least 6 states plus a part of Canada. Their long term plan was to build within’ first and they have done that. Seattle itself is the 11 largest market in the country before the cable deal.
It would be a huge gamble at the price and not just for Seattle, but any team. My guess it will be a team that scouted him enough to take the risk or a team just foolish enough to waist money.
This is one the Mets cannot pass up on.
But they will!!!! Because the Wilpons will pay that kind of money to any player. Just like they did with Abreu (to our knowledge), Puig, etc.
There is a chance that he could be good. The Mets prefer big money busts.
Yep. Two major needs are SS and LF. They need some power as well. He’s a perfect fit for a gamble. $105MM over seven years is $15MM per, so they could sign him and still keep payroll below $100MM.
SS isn’t a “major need”. I’d like to see more of Flores next season. I was very impressed with the way Flores & Herrera have meshed up the middle. If Tomas is signed, he’ll most likely end up in RF, with Granderson in LF. Then again, I’d like to see them try to trade Granderson with Nimmo being not so far away.
I like Flores, too, but out of all positions on the team, LF and SS are the most glaring holes. I guess it depends on whether or not they want to be serious contenders in 2015 or 2016, but I’d like to see them make a move next year as Wright is only getting older.
I bet teams are just lining up to take Granderson’s bad contract off the Mets’ hands!
Braves came close to taking a worse contract like BJ Upton’s off their hands to the Cubs, who has 3 yrs, $47 million left on his deal, just like Granderson. If Upton gets moved this winter the way the Braves are pushing, there should be no doubt someone will take Granderson.
Who is trading for Granderson? They can “try” to trade him but who wans to take on a declining skill set, 200 k’s and 15 million a year through 2017?
His skill set hasn’t really declined since he was on the Yankees. His discipline actually improved this season from when he was a Yankee, as he doesn’t have the right field porch advantage at Citi like he did at Yankee Stadium, eliminating the “200 Ks” argument. What’s very evident that he needs to return to a hitters park. The Mets only signed because they assumed he could replicate his success from Yankee Stadium to Citi Field, which is why they originally pegged him as their cleanup hitter. As far as who could possibly show interest? Yankees could show interest in him again if Ichiro leaves. Texas is another one (lifetime .292/.422/.674/1.096 hitter at Globe Life) and maybe the Orioles to take over LF.
His defense has been in a continual decline for a number of years. However you are correct, his K/BB ratio swing percentage and low Babip all bode well for his future. The more I look at his advanced offensive metrics makes me wonder why the Mets would want to trade him. I don’t think much can be expected in return for an outfielder in his 34-36 seasons who is making 15 million a year. He would be tradable as long as the Mets were not looking for a decent return. If the Mets are just trying to get the payroll space back, something could probably be worked out. I just don’t see many teams being proactive in trading for him.
Texas will not take that contract, they are not willing to go that high they can pick up the Rios option cheaper than that..
They’d rather sign a guy who could only hit 4 HRs in Texas of all places, over someone who’s still capable of hitting 20 HRs (25-30 in Texas)? What if Texas possibly wanted to swap a bad contract (Andrus)?
I don’t think they’ll go after a SS anymore after seeing how Flores has hit. If anything, they’ll make an in season trade if Flores isn’t producing and they’re in contention by July.
I agree. There are a couple of options out there on the FA market this offseason, but Flores is hitting well over the last few months and costs almost nothing.
That signing would actually push the Mets payroll just over 100mm and does not fix the teams other issues..
Ok, fine. They’d be just over $100MM. But honestly, I’d be happy with the offseason if they signed Tomas and did basically nothing else. I don’t know what ‘other issues’ you’re referring to are, but I imagine the Mets are going to go in-house on nearly everything.
You stated earlier needs for a ss and l/f. While ss might only be a minor need is still a need you could also use some help in the b/p. Mets have a large obligation to arbitration. I stated earlier that like Tomas as a Mets just do not see them making a 15mm commitment to him. That would give you a real nice o/f with Granderson, Lagares and Tomas.
Here is a trade scenario for you: Elvis Andrus and Luke Jackson(minors) and 15mm over 3 years for Daniel Murphy and either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee
That’s an interesting proposal. I don’t know much about Jackson but his numbers look good. As for Andrus, though, his contract is huge for someone who gave about as much production this entire year as Flores has given in just half a season. I’d pass, as Andrus can’t hit.
Ok, take Andrus out of the deal and say the Rangers want Murphy what do you do as a GM. Or say they want Niese what do you do?
I’d be willing to trade either one, provided it brought back some hitting. I think if the Mets got some kind of outfielder with some offense in return for Murphy/Niese or Murphy/Gee, they’d be more than willing to start 2015 with Herrera and Flores at 2B and SS.
7 years 105 million is a tremendous amount of guaranteed money for someone who has never played in the majors and doesn’t have the tangible success that other Cubans like Abreu had before becoming a free agent.
That is such a huge risk and certainly one I would not go for.
Yes, but also is significantly less than what he may cost with just a little bit proven talent.
States in the story above that Abreu has inflated the Cuban market and that Castillo is a lesser player than Abreu and that Tomas is lesser than Castillo.
Doesn’t say Tomas is lesser than Castillo, they are 2 different players. Is more of a readjustment of the market. They will keep adjusting so that the Cuban free agent prices get close to free agent prices minus the risk value teams place.
Ok, point taken, but does state under “expected contract” that Castillo is likely inferior to Abreu. My read of the situation is that with holes in his swing and “swing and miss tendencies” as stated in weakness/con’s that he will probably not fully impact the 2015 season because he needs “seasoning” that in my opinion means he is inferior to Castillo..
We will find out a lot more about Castillo in the off seasonk he’ll play AZ league and probably Puerto Rico, he looks like he might be a big time keeper as his short stay in Boston exhibited some good points.
Texas maybe can sign him
Texas would pick option on Rios before they sign this kid in my opinion even with his numbers down this year because of being hurt most of the year still a proven piece..
The Beltran signing is looking worse and worse every day. Granted he was only supposed to be a 3 year bridge to one of the OF prospects that would hopefully get their act together.
The White Sox have been building Little Little Havana for years and probably won’t be signing VMart after today, so…
I’m going to dare to be optimistic and say the Mets get him. They were well represented at his showcase reportedly, and while the Wilpons always lie, they’ve said they have some payroll flexibility. Shed Colon and Gee and that basically covers all of what Tomas will cost for this year. Further, I doubt Alderson would have reupped for another three years without some guarantee from ownership that he would get some money to spend.
He’s gonna go to San Francisco. Morse will be leaving, and they would rather pay this guy to hit better and actually play defense than Morse to get injured every other month.
Morse has said that he would like to stay in San Francisco plus he could technically could replace Sandoval at 3b that was what he was drafted as..
I don’t really see Morse playing anywhere other than 1B or LF
True, just noted that was what he was drafted as..
Mets are betting off getting Cuddyer for 2 yrs 20m who can also spell Duda at 1st vs lefties
Yankees need to find younger, talented players like him desperately and they actually have an opening in right field.
White Sox have a need in left field and have a ton of money to spend. Use the same scouts used to sign Jose Abreu and get it done if he shows promise.
I would love for the Mets to sign him but with Alderson’s FA luck he’ll end up a bust and the Mets will be back to square1.
This needs to be the Yankees top priority this offseason. young/powerful/RF. the trifecta
walt jocketty will try and get this guy….oh wait he hasnt played for the cardinals my bad
The Cubs’ payroll will be $60 million next year. $60 million, not a typo. Might as well put a Cubs uniform on him now. Tomas in left, Soler in right, and Alcantara/Almora in center?! Yeah he’ll be a Cub.
I say Phils take him at $95MM for 6 years after trading Byrd and Brown. Getting both of them off their hands with help with the finical part of Thomas’ deal and I think he’s exactly what the Phillies need to start rebuilding