The Braves are expected to make a qualifying offer to Ervin Santana, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. In the event that Santana leaves, the team may pursue a top-of-the-rotation type of arm, O’Brien writes, but their lack of financial flexibility would make the trade market a more likely avenue than free agency. O’Brien adds that he finds it unlikely that Santana would accept the QO — a sentiment with which I wholeheartedly agree. He also notes that should the club lose Santana, it might be more motivated to try to retain Aaron Harang, even though he is in line for a sizable raise from the $2MM he earned in 2014 (including incentives). MLBTR’s Zach Links recently profiled Harang, pegging him for a two-year, $14MM contract. Santana was also profiled by MLBTR, with Tim Dierkes projecting a four-year pact worth $56MM.
Elsewhere in baseball’s Eastern divisions…
- The Red Sox are prioritizing Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley as the look toward the offseason, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The team may also look at Aramis Ramirez, though he’s not believed to be as coveted as Sandoval or Headley and is said to prefer a return to Milwaukee, per Heyman, who adds that the Yankees would like to re-sign Headley. Red Sox third basemen combined to hit just .245/.305/.351 in 2014.
- Red Sox people strongly denied a previous report that Yoenis Cespedes is hated by the team’s coaching staff, Heyman writes in a second piece. One source called the report “totally untrue,” and manager John Farrell added on MLB Network Radio that the notion was “completely unfounded,” Heyman adds. He goes on to write that a trade of Cespedes is unlikely (though not impossible), given Boston’s overall need for power.
- The Phillies announced today that their entire coaching staff has agreed to return to the club for the 2015 season.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the second round of changes coming to the dimensions of Citi Field and writes that the new dimensions may give some type of hint as to which players are most likely to be traded by the Mets this offseason. The Mets are planning to make Citi Field more homer-friendly and build the pitching staff around arms that emphasize strikeouts and ground-balls. Names like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler fit that description, but Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee and, to a lesser extent, Rafael Montero are all more prone to fly-balls, making them more likely to be dealt.
Santana should accept the QO. That draft pick will greatly reduce his value – many teams won’t touch him. $15MM for a season isn’t bad.
A one-year deal in general is bad for a player. They want long-term security. Plus, Santana basically proved last year that the worst-case scenario for him in rejecting the QO is ending up on a one-year deal at the same value as the QO. No way he accepts.
I think the Braves just want the draft pick.
John Hart constructed the Indians to be ready when they moved into Jacobs Field. He’ll do the same to move the Braves into their new park in 2017. He’s got to get some ridiculous contracts off the books such as the Upton’s (as he did with A-Rod’s when he went to work for the Rangers), and my guess is that he’ll be looking to take a step back for a year or two and get some good, young players in as well as restructuring the scouting and development staffs as well as many of the players in the farm system.
The Braves have their core signed to carry them through 2017. They’ll want to make moves to add to it. I don’t think Ervin Santana is a very good fit for the Braves at this point in his career.
Except Santana was far worse this year than he was in 2013. Pretty much every stat is worse this year than last, except HR/9, because he switched from Kansas City to Atlanta, and K/9.
He’ll be hard-pressed to find a team that’s willing to pay $15MM for a year of 92 ERA+ pitching and cough up a 1st/2nd-round pick for the privilege.
It’s not impossible, especially if he’s willing to wait until March. Fangraphs did peg his 2014 value at $15.6MM so another 1 year deal at $15MM is not out of the question on the open market as a fallback plan. I think he’ll consider accepting, but the reward of a 3 year $33MM type deal will outweigh the risk of signing a cheap 1 year deal.
I could see him getting a multi-year deal in excess of $15MM, but I have my doubts about any deal with AAV in excess of $15MM.
It would make sense for him to hold out for a multi-year deal, because I have every expectation that he’d find a suitor willing to pay him a total that’s higher than the QO… But I also think that nobody’s going to be beating down the doors to offer him a 1/15, let alone a 2/30 or 3/45.
If you think Santana can’t even find a one-year deal worth $15MM on the open market, I’m not sure what to tell you other than that I think you’re going to be surprised by his contract, and a whole lot of other contracts this offseason.
He had to settle for one year last winter because his now-former agent set out seeking six years and $110MM+. That was never realistic, of course, and by the time they adjusted their expectations to that 4/50 range that others were landing in, it was too late.
He had a 3/33 offer from the Twins in Spring Training last season with a draft pick attached and passed, knowing that he could earn nearly that much over a two-year term even in a worst-case scenario.
Teams aren’t looking at Ervin Santana’s 2014 ERA alone and saying, “This guy’s eight percent below the league average.” They’re going to see a guy that’s been worth two-plus wins in four of the past five seasons while averaging 200+ innings. I’ll be stunned if he ends up with anything less than three years and am completely on board with Tim’s prediction of four years in that $50MM range.
I agree that Santana will be able to get more than $15MM in the open market. I’d be in total agreement that he could get a 4-year/$50MM deal from some team. I don’t believe that he’ll be able to get an AAV in excess of $15MM, however – even more so if he’s also going to cost the acquiring team a first round (or top of the second round) draft pick.
I’d be concerned (if not necessarily surprised) if teams are planning on making him offers that incorporate 2010 and 2011 when 2 out of the past 3 years he hasn’t even approached that level of production. Even going by fWAR he was only good for an average of 1.5 WAR over the past 3 years (rWAR has him at below 1, averaged), and he hasn’t approached those innings totals from 2010-2011 in the interim either (even in his great 2013).
If he gets a 1-year deal (other than the QO), what team would be interested in paying $15MM and giving up a draft pick for that? He was great in 2013, but that was by far his best year since 2008, and every single one of his stats is down across the board except for K/9 and HR/9 in 2014. Higher ERA, WHIP and lower IP, K/BB and ERA+ (despite being in the supposedly easier league).
Dear god I hope it’s pablo and they go nowhere near headley
Headley’s a descent third baseman. I wouldn’t mind either personally. Both would be significant upgrades over last year’s production.
I dunno if that typo was intentional or not (descent instead of decent), but it’s so PERFECT
If it’s Headly from his first couple years with the Padres I’ll take him but if the Giants don’t sign Sandoval I hope they go all out on him. With him in the lineup with Ortiz and Cespedes this team will score lots of runs.
Sure everyone would rather have Sandoval, but Headley as the second choice would still be better than anything else we could march out there.
Sadly, I’m not that clever. Just a regular typo.
I would think the Mets look more at a player like Lowrie and Cabrera in the infield. Melky Cabrera would be a good addition in the outfield.
Melky would improve the team but the question is cost. The contract may be too long. Considering the Mets have Conforto and Nimmo in the system who they expect to see in the Majors in 2016 and 2015 respectively, I don’t see how that fits. Flores projects to be better than Cabrera, so I’d avoid him too. I like Lowrie but it all depends on the price.
Headley had one good season two years ago and we’d have to overpay him big time. I’d rather just give Cecchini a chance and spend our money elsewhere than bring in Headley
I’d rather have a proven third baseman. Headley was the best defensive third baseman in the game last year and he hit a bit too. Cecchini isn’t ready. He had a terrible season in AAA and questions remain as to whether he can actually field the position. If he wants to earn the third base job, he’s more than welcome to, but he’s not going to just be given it. He hits like Betts in AAA and he’s earned the promotion. Sign Headley and if Cecchini proves himself, trade Headley. That’s how this is supposed to work. Make the kids earn it, don’t just give it to them. Otherwise you end up with a repeat of last season. There’s plenty of money to go around. 55-60 million it looks. And that’s if they don’t trade one of their spare outfielders.
I am a huge fan of Cecchini and think his OBP skills are already MLB ready but I agree he can’t just be given the job. That’s why I would prefer Headley who will recieve less years and money over Sandoval. If Cecchini proves himself then I think trading Headley will be easier and you wouldn’t have given up a draft pick.
I’m still a little hesitant about Cecchini. If this season has taught us nothing, it’s never rely on unproven youth for anything. Always have a backup plan. That said I think Betts and Bogaerts will be solid next season. Everyone else is still a question mark.
Cecchini has not proved himself to be even a decent AAA player yet even at the age of 23. He had a 341 OBP and less than thirty extra base hits in ove 450 PA at Pawtucket last year. Add in his subpar defense and you have to wonder what he really is going forward. He looks more like Scott Cooper than Wade Boggs to me.
Hey, Scott Cooper was an All Star. On a very bad Red Sox team, but still. Seriously though, I agree. Cecchini hasn’t showed me much. I think the organization is in love with him because he knows how to take a walk. If only he could build a career out of that.
HA, two time all star if I remember correctly. To think we might have been able to trade Cooper for Larry Anderson and kept Bagwell is where most of my ire comes from. I know those Red Sox teams had Vaughn and who knows if Bagwell could have stuck at the hot corner but I like to re-imagine those 90s Red Sox teams with a young Schilling, Brady Anderson and Bagwell in particular.
One thing that is important to remember about Cecchini is that he had a poor first half of the season in AAA but after the AAA all star break had a .370 OBP and in August had a .413 OBP. Seems like the type of guy that is good at making adjustments which would fit with his very good plate eye (more he sees a pitcher more his eye can help him).
I don’t think he should be given the starting job but I think that he’s the type of guy that if given the time needed to develop properly could become a pretty good player!
I’m not saying he will not be good only that he is not a reliable option to start going into the season. He’s 24 so if it’s going to happen for him it needs to happen somewhat soon.
Because giving young unproven guys the job worked so well for them last year. Lol. No way they go Garin at 3B. No way.
Of course the Red Sox coaches don’t hate Cespedes… but this is what Boston’s front office does. They “leak” negative stories before they’re about to let players leave.
Usually they wait until they get rid of them first.
Reminds me of Winfield with the Yankees. Franchises do everything to make themselves look better when getting rid of someone.
Sounds like the current Mets FO.
Seems counterintuitive to demolish a player you’re trying to market to other teams. I’d be putting out that he and the staff love each other, share baking recipes…and car pool together to kiwana meetings…ya know..whatever.
They do it so there isn’t a support the player and boo the franchise or owner moment when that player visits from out of town. Yankees had a few of those players that incited negative Steinbrenner chants when they visited. There’s videos of it when Reggie visited Yankee stadium.
Yeah, but I just don’t see Cespedes having all that much cred with the Boston fans. I don’t know..I’m not in Boston.
Well they did trade him for Lester, I can see the average fan not knowing that Lester was going to test Free Agency no matter what getting angry if and when Cespedes opts out next season.
I remember Boston’s GM criticized Clemens during his tenure there. They seem to do a lot of weird things. I can’t remember if Clemens was booed when he came back in 97-98 with the Jays?
I suppose… I jus don’t know if I see the average fan as.a booing heckler.
100% the Giants are re-signing Sandoval, nice try though Red Sox…
I’d say that’s the most likely thing to happen but, San Fran is going to need to cough up 100 million + in order to keep him. Otherwise, he’ll just walk.
So?… They have already done that with other players.
I agree, San Fran has done a good job paying their core players for past performance. I think Panda stays in the Bay
I read an article last week that said that the “worst thing that could happen” to the Giants was if they won the World Series because then they would have to re-sign everybody. Interesting take. But, we’ll see if that happens.
There is absolutely some truth to that. Look what they did with Scutaro after 2012. Regardless, Sandoval contributes when they need him most and his defence is solid. Undoubtedly, his signing will definitely hit the payroll hard.
Gee and Colon won’t be around soon. Montero is likely to be moved soon too.
Moving the fences in is a good idea. Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler are strikeout pitchers.
Yep hope the mets trade some young pitching for hitters this offseason. I can see a Bartolo Colon for Shane Victorino trade. Then trade Gee the Astros for Jonathan Villar
I would rather Boston take a PTBNL than Colon.
I don’t know how many times we have to revisit this in these comment threads. Colon quit on the Sox down the stretch in 2008 and went home. The bridge is burned, Colon will not be in Boston..
Flip those trades and i can see them happening. I hope not but maybe.
I’d be more inclined to try and get Craig from the Sox. Gee either straight up or add a mid-level prospect. I’m not opposed to trying to get Villar for Colon. Even if he is nothing more than a backup middle infielder even though i think Colon and Murphy are more likely moved at the deadline.
I think if the Mets still have those two at the trade deadline they might as well ride it out with them. I’m not sure what could be fetched as far as a decent return for either with only 2 months of team control. Murphy could possibly fetch something but Colon should be looked at as a straight up salary dump and the sooner he is moved the better off the Mets payroll situation will be.
Not sure why the Red Sox are giving a lot of looks at Headley he’s ok but I prefer Sandoval over him, but I wouldn’t mind the Sox taking Healey only if Sandoval re-signs with the Giants.
Headley is the best defender in Baseball at any position according to Fangraphs 2014 numbers. That is why.
Headley’s fWAR was 4.4. Sandovals fWAR was 3.0.
Headley was the better player (in the regular season).
Overall the better player, but Sandoval was the better hitter. It depends on what you are looking for. If you need some pop in your lineup you’re better off going with Sandoval. He’s still an above average hitter and fielder. Headley on the other hand is a phenomenal fielder with less pop. It would be a huge upgrade for the Red Sox to sign either of these players.
Headley’s WAR is 4.4 Pablo’s is 3.0. Headley’s DeF was 21.6 Pablo’s 5.3. Pablo’s wRC+ is 111 Headley’s 103. you decide.
Pretty much. And Sandoval is younger, but has a bad body type. But he’s also more marketable than Headley. I’d take either, just so long as it’s market value and not a bidding war situation.
The eyeball test tells me that Headley is a good all around player, who would fit in well on any team needing a third basemen.
One year at $15MM should be enough security for anyone to be set for the rest of their life. I understood wanting multi-year deals when the stars made 200 thousand a year. Outside of sports, I know of no profession that offers multi-year salary guarantees except politics.
Most big time CEOs have big time “golden parachutes”.
In the Entertainment industry is common to have multi-movie/TV Deals.
Likewise, in top Authors get multi-book deals spanning several years.
It is actually UNCOMMON for some industries to NOT have multi-year deals for top talent.
Good point. But it is a pretty big stretch to refer to Ervin Santana as a “top talent”. When I read the article I thought the same thing that Jack did, but in a bit of a different way – if Mr. Santana is not set for life as of today, someone has been giving his money away. Any other contracts he gets are just gravy.
I suppose Santana could play out his career riding one year qualifying offers until a team fails to offer one. If his health held up…that’d be quite a bit in average annual salary.
Nobody really cares about how you feel about players’ salaries
Except the 3 people who up voted his comment?
its pretty common for people to hate on players’ salaries here. the proverbial dead horse.
I’m not crazy about the wealth disparity in society let alone sports. That being said I try not to complain because I’ve helped to create the market in all these sports by buying cable packages, chatting on the internet and paying for tickets, 8 dollar hot dogs and 10 dollar beers. Who am I to complain about the sports industry as I have helped facilitate it. I’m proud of the fact that I don’t by apparel and jerseys with my favorite player’s number on it though. :p
What was harangs era this year
If I were Sandoval, I’d stay away from the Red Sox. Boston third basemen can’t seem to stay healthy. Youklis’ body broke down when he went back to 3rd base. Middlebrooks can’t stay healthy to save his life. It seems that no matter who they put there, gets injured.
Just because the Red Sox have had bad luck with the health of their 3rd basemen doesn’t mean it’ll happen to Sandoval. Every 3rd base position is the same in baseball you know….. It’s just how the cookie crumbles sometimes. And, Youkilis always had a tendency to get injured his last few years in Boston, the guy never quite showed he was durable. Sandoval has been at third his whole major league career (pretty well) so, the likelihood of him breaking down (which probably would’ve happened once already) is much less likely than someone like Youkilis who was switched from 1st.
Youkilis had the same injury issues his whole career, and it derailed it. Had he been able to stay healthy he would still be manning 3rd and retiring in Boston.
I suppose you can use the same logic with Bullpen arms and the Tigers.
I’m sure the Red Sox can’t wait to intentionally hurt one of their players. Are you serious?
Why would Panda leave the Giants?
$$$.
Giants have $$$ from 3 World Series runs. And they do not have not problem with overpaying their own.
Yea but are they willing to pay him the 18 million that he is going to get in the FA market.
If they’re giving Lincecum $18MM next season, they should pay up for Sandoval. Lincecum was terrible when they signed him to that deal and has remained so.
Also why did they only offer him an 3 year deal if they wanted to lock him up. But actually change that number to 100+ million total
Rationally looking at REGULAR SEASON numbers, Headley is an amazing defender and better all around player than Kung Fu Panda. Of course, Panda is one of the most clutch WS players ever…. but how much more are you willing to pay for those 20-25 ABs?
Headley would also likely come without a QO and not demand as much.
It’s certain. Headley did not spend all of last season with the Yankees, so they can’t give him a QO.
Thanks for that clarification.
Knowing how badly the Braves regret the BJ Upton signing, I wonder if, upon losing Santana, they would swap bad contracts and take John Danks off the White Sox?
We can only hope.
Where would they play Upton? They have Eaton and Garcia already in the OF and they can likely do better than him in free agency.
Realistically how many innings is Matt Harvey going to throw next year after Tommy John? Do the Mets shut him down if they make the playoffs? I don’t look for Harvey to just come back and pitch 200 plus innings.
I imagine it’ll be in the 160-175 range. They could go to a 6-man rotation at some point which makes sense – all their starters have some combination of limited experience, injury history, and old age.
At 175 he will have to be shut down in the playoffs like Strasburg, interesting to see what whould happen.
The Phillies are like that company where instead of hiring millennials it’s just a bunch of baby boomers waiting to retire and those in charge just want to make sure the culture doesn’t change so they can continue to work 9-5 and take days off to celebrate Edna’s 76th birthday every year.
Prioritizing pablo or headley?!?!? Third base isnt biggest issue with boston. Starting a season with 3 starting pitchers with less than a full year of experience is scary!!!!! That’s not even scary as having clay as the #1 pitcher. The red sox need to prioritize starting pitching then go down the list. IMO
Oakland should get cespedes back