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Free Agent Profile: Pat Neshek

By Steve Adams | October 29, 2014 at 6:50pm CDT

Pat Neshek improbably went from minor league signee to All-Star setup man after signing late with the Cardinals last winter. He’ll now look to parlay the finest season of his career into his first multi-year deal on the free agent market.

Strengths/Pros

Over the past three seasons, Neshek has quietly assembled a nice track record. He’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over a period of 127 1/3 innings in that timeframe. In particular, the side-armer has been a dominant weapon against right-handed hitters, limiting same-handed bats to a paltry .173/.228/.271 batting line.

Pat  Neshek

Neshek’s three-year platform looks solid from a statistical standpoint, but it downplays how great his 2014 campaign truly was. His 67 1/3 innings and 71 appearances ranked eighth and 12th among free agent relievers, respectively, and only Andrew Miller’s 2.4 fWAR topped Neshek’s mark of 1.8 this season. Assuming the options of Darren O’Day and Huston Street are exercised, no relief pitcher can claim to have topped his 2.4 RA9-WAR, and only Koji Uehara can lay claim to a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Neshek’s mark of 7.56. He was even dominant against left-handed hitters, stifling them to the tune of a .196/.237/.304 line. However you slice it, Neshek was one of the very best relief pitchers in Major League Baseball this season.

A .233 BABIP and 83 percent strand rate also contributed to Neshek’s ERA, but somewhat remarkably, those marks are in line with his career norms. Neshek does appear to able to consistently strand runners and induce weak contact at a better-than-average rate, though it’s fair to question if he can sustain levels this superior to the 2014 league-average reliever rates of .294 and 73.9.

Like nearly all relief pitchers, he won’t come with a qualifying offer attached, so he won’t cost a draft pick. And, while he’s had some injuries in his pro career (most notably Tommy John surgery back in 2008), he’s been healthy in each of the past four seasons. His health in 2014 was apparent, given the fact that he posted his best fastball velocity since his rookie campaign in 2006.

Neshek also stepped into the ninth inning at season’s end and picked up six saves, which might make him a bit more appealing to teams with late-inning needs.

Weaknesses/Cons

Neshek looked to be on the verge of breaking out as an elite setup man with his hometown Twins back in 2007, but the Tommy John surgery and a damaged pulley tendon in his right hand slowed his career considerably and limited him to just 22 1/3 big league innings from 2008-10. It’s been an uphill battle to reestablish himself in the Major Leagues since that time, meaning he doesn’t have a particularly lengthy track record to draw from. In fact, he’s totaled just 281 2/3 innings in the Majors.

Dominant as Neshek was against lefties in 2014, he had the opposite problem in 2013. Lefties batted .315/.367/.566 against Neshek last season, and he had enough trouble getting them out that he was at one point designated for assignment by the A’s despite possessing strong all-around numbers at the time. This season, he dramatically reduced the number of sliders he threw in favor of the fastball, and the result does seem to have been positive.

Neshek’s electric ERA was, in part, sustained thanks to a career-low homer-to-flyball rate of just 4.3 percent. Teams may worry that Neshek, who entered the season with a career 10.4 percent HR/FB ratio, will regress toward his career marks. Those who point to the change in pitch selection as a possible reason for this year’s shift won’t have a leg to stand on, either, as his slider has typically not been susceptible to homers.

Neshek’s resurgent season came at age 33, and he’ll pitch next season at age 34, so he’s older than a number of arms in the second tier of the free agent market. He also struggled down the stretch, allowing nine runs over his final 12 innings, although seven of those did come in just two bad outings.

Personal

Neshek’s unorthodox delivery stems from an injury sustained in high school that prevented him from throwing overhand. He was hit by a pitch on the wrist and described the sensation of throwing overhand following that incident to Ted Berg of USA Today by saying it felt like the ball “was ripping right through my fingertips.” Neshek’s delivery was developed to compensate for that injury but soon turned into a weapon that he used effectively in his college career at Butler.

Neshek is an avid autograph collector and has a love of collecting and trading baseball cards. Neshek started a web site for fans who share his passion. He is a fan of Out Of The Park Baseball — a popular baseball simulation game — and is even a reader of MLBTR (Hi Pat!). Neshek is often described as an outgoing, engaging person who takes a genuine interest in those around him.

Market

The relief market this season is fronted by David Robertson and Andrew Miller, but Neshek will be one of many strong options in the second tier.  He and agent Barry Meister seem likely to target multiple years, and there’s certainly a case to be made. In terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K%, BB% and GB%, Neshek’s three-year platform heading into free agency is comparable, if not superior, to that of Joe Smith, who signed a three-year pact with the Angels last offseason.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Smith’s contract is a reasonable expectation, as Neshek is three-and-a-half years older, has thrown fewer innings than Smith in that time and has struggled more against lefties. The point, however, is that he has rate stats commensurate with well-compensated relievers, and he is coming off an elite walk season.

In spite of the lower innings total relative to his peers, there will be no shortage of clubs that look at Neshek as a relatively affordable piece to strengthen their bullpen. I’d imagine that the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Tigers, Giants, Indians and Nats could all have some interest. Each of those teams either made the postseason or was within striking distance this season. However, Neshek is a player who has “only” banked about $4.5MM in his career, so I can see him going to a rebuilding or non-contending club, should that team offer the most money. The White Sox are known to be in need of bullpen help, as are the Astros, Cubs and Phillies, to name a few.

Expected Contract

Despite his standout 2014, I have a difficult time envisioning a three-year pact on an open market that is flush with relief options. I do, however, think that Neshek can land a two-year pact, possibly with an option, especially if Meister strikes quickly. Relievers are typically best-served to sign early in free agency, and Neshek should strive to do the same.

Last offseason, Edward Mujica inked a two-year, $9.5MM contract with the Red Sox despite a late-season slide that cost him his closer’s gig. While Neshek hasn’t built up Mujica’s track record of innings at the Major League level, he strikes hitters out at a higher rate and is coming off a better platform season. I expect something near Mujica’s contract to be the landing spot, as I’m projecting a two-year, $10MM contract for Neshek.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Pat Neshek

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15 Comments

  1. Ace McCloud®

    11 years ago

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Pat back in Oakland.

    Reply
  2. stl_cards16

    11 years ago

    Would love to have Neshek back. He held the bullpen together all season.

    Reply
    • Metsfan93

      11 years ago

      I agree, he’s a good fit to stay in STL, especially at that 2-year, 10 MM projection. I can see it.

      Reply
  3. caughtredhanded

    11 years ago

    I’ve never been able to hit off him on The Show, dread it every time I see him take the mound. Would love to see him as a Red.

    Reply
    • Nathan Boley

      11 years ago

      Yeah he has a real funky delivery that’s hard to pick up from the plate. The guy who always gets me is Iwakuma. My player in RTTS is hitting .300/.400/.600 or something like that, yet he’s 2-for-20 against Iwakuma for his career or something.

      Reply
    • Melvin Mendoza, Jr.

      11 years ago

      I can never hit sidearmers or guys with a non 4SFB primary pitch. My strategy is to guess high 4SFB and try to hit a 500 ft home run every at bat. I can’t remember if he still is on ’14, but Neshek at one point was a sidearmer with a primary slider and he was a nightmare.

      Reply
  4. Draven Moss

    11 years ago

    I think the Red Sox will be interested if they let Koji walk and don’t sign Miller, they’ll need a bullpen arm badly then.

    Reply
    • Baseball597

      11 years ago

      I would bet that Koji stays for one more year. It’s not like the Red Sox are really strapped for cash, so It’d be kind of foolish to not spend the money on a proven commodity.

      Reply
      • Draven Moss

        11 years ago

        That’s true, and I’ll expect that’s what’ll happen, unless they think somebody else is capable of closing (maybe they could sign Miller to be the closer instead?). The Red Sox have around 60 million to spend on next year’s budget (if they choose to) and using 1/6 of that on a closer is alright for one year I guess but, their bigger needs are finding 2 SP (an ace and no.2) as well as a left-handed bat (preferably 3rd basemen as of now).

        Reply
  5. kyle_schmendrick

    11 years ago

    I’m a bit worried that Koji may be done…..or at least his endurance is down so they’ll need someone else to back him up

    Reply
  6. Daniel Morairity

    11 years ago

    This might be a good guy for the rangers to get pat neshek after all he is the best reliever and he can go to the 8th inning if the rangers left specialist Neal cotts is having trouble. I see if the rangers sign neshek for the bullpen the bullpen will look like this.

    Ross
    Neshek
    Cotts
    Feliz
    Miller

    The rangers also could get miller if cotts leave

    Reply
  7. John Rams

    11 years ago

    2 years 10 is a steal compared to what some of these other relievers are going to make, I expect him to be scooped up quickly.

    Reply
  8. UK Tiger

    11 years ago

    Id love to see Neshek in Detroit.

    One things for sure, whoever gets him will be getting excellent bang for their buck.

    Reply
  9. Paladinlost

    11 years ago

    I have a feeling he’ll be back with the Cards. Talked to him a couple of times at games. He definitely is a class act, and with Motte’s salary off the books, that’s the money that can go to Neshek (I honestly think they may just give Motte the 1-yr/1 Mil tryout contract and give Neshek 2-yrs/10-11 million – basically just flipping the two contracts.)

    Reply
  10. Anonymous 2

    11 years ago

    The New York Yankees should pair the signing of Pat w/ the signings of Miller & Robertson. To pair w/ Bentaces & the other arms in that ‘pen. That part of their game will be taken care of for a bit.

    Reply

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