The Phillies fell to the basement of the NL East with a 73-89 record in 2014. Ominously, the club received decent performances from many over-the-hill veterans, suggesting the presence of additional downside. Youngsters and the rotation take most of the blame for the poor season. If there’s one bright spot (and there is only one), it’s the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ryan Howard, 1B: $60MM through 2016
- Cliff Lee, SP: $37.5MM through 2015
- Cole Hamels, SP: $96MM through 2018
- Chase Utley, 2B: $15MM through 2015 (plus three $15MM vesting options from 2016-2018)
- Jonathan Papelbon, RP: $13MM through 2015 (plus $13MM vesting option for 2016)
- Jimmy Rollins, SS: $11MM through 2015
- Carlos Ruiz, C: $17.5MM through 2016
- Marlon Byrd, OF: $8MM through 2015
- Miguel Gonzalez, SP: $7MM through 2016 (plus unknown vesting option for 2017)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Tony Gwynn Jr. (5.147): $900K projected salary
- Antonio Bastardo (5.054): $2.8MM
- Andres Blanco (4.007): $700K
- Ben Revere (3.149): $4MM
- Domonic Brown (3.078): $2.6MM
- Cesar Jimenez (3.020): $600K
- Non-tender candidates: Gwynn, Blanco, Jimenez
Contract Options
- A.J. Burnett: $15MM mutual option or $12.75MM player option ($1MM buyout)
- Mike Adams: $6MM club option
Free Agents
The Phillies entered the July trade deadline with few assets and an obvious need to retool. However, they opted to keep their most marketable pieces like Hamels, Papelbon, and Byrd. That trio were involved in a wide range of trade rumors, but a deal was never finalized. Philadelphia did swing a notable August trade, securing prospects Jesmuel Valentin and Victor Arano from the Dodgers for starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez. The Phillies also netted Gustavo Pierre for backup outfielder John Mayberry Jr.
GM Ruben Amaro Jr. may be on the hot seat due to a combination of bad contracts and a failure to turn veterans into future talent during the season. For example, several playoff-bound clubs like the Tigers, Giants, or Dodgers could have benefited from Papelbon, but Amaro was unable to unload him. For what it’s worth, former team president Dave Montgomery and interim team president Pat Gillick have issued multiple votes of confidence on behalf of Amaro. The club’s failure in 2014 should make it easier for the front office to accept a rebuilding process.
Philadelphia lacks near-ready position prospects beyond Maikel Franco. Their offense ranked 27th in baseball per wRC+, a context neutral advanced statistic. They barely outpaced the Padres, Reds, and Diamondbacks among the league’s worst offenses. A focus on finding new, long-term assets should be the top priority.
While it’s obvious the club should rebuild, the how of it is muddier. The outgoing free agents do not represent a substantial chunk of the payroll, so a Yankees-like spending spree isn’t a possibility. A quick turnaround will require shrewd moves on the free agent, trade, and waiver markets. When this club was last successful, they found Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth on the scrap heap. This time around Philadelphia needs to find even more hidden gems.
Before fixating on the Phillies myriad problems, let’s examine their biggest strength – the bullpen. Papelbon posted a fine season with 39 saves and a 2.04 ERA. His fastball velocity declined for a fourth straight season – now down to 91 mph. His peripherals are worrisome, especially his unusually low .247 BABIP and 2.7% HR/FB ratio. If both numbers regress to league average, we should expect a corresponding bump in ERA.
Papelbon found himself in the rumor mill this summer but ultimately stuck with the club. His contract, vesting option, and reputation as a distraction will make him difficult to trade. He can block deals to 17 clubs, but he’s said he will accept a trade to any contender who uses him as their primary closer. The emergence of Ken Giles – 1.18 ERA, 12.61 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, and 97 mph fastball – gives Philadelphia an alternative to their veteran star. However, Giles has struggled with command in the minors, so it may be prudent to confirm he can maintain a strong walk rate. Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal offers a cautionary tale.
Another reliever to emerge this season is Jake Diekman. The left-handed slinger dialed up the gas with an average fastball at 97 mph and the ability to touch triple digits. He improved throughout the season and finished with a 3.80 ERA, 12.68 K/9, and 4.44 BB/9. Diekman’s presence could make Bastardo expendable. The club’s longest tenured lefty reliever is entering his third and final season of arbitration eligibility and is expected to earn $2.8MM. The Phillies can also turn to right-hander Justin De Fratus to shorten games.
Papelbon is not the only player who should expect a swirl of trade rumors this winter. With several high profile players, the question is: will they return? Burnett may consider retirement rather than accept his side of the option (worth at least $12.75MM). Even if he does decide to continue playing, there’s no guarantee he won’t opt to serve with another franchise.
One reason Burnett chose Philadelphia was that he thought he could help them compete. Despite an 18-loss season, teams would probably be willing to bet on Burnett returning to a healthier and more productive state in 2015. He pitched nearly the entire season with a hernia and posted the highest walk rate of his career. A healthy Burnett could more closely resemble his strong 2012-13 seasons.
In many ways, it’s fortunate that outfielder Yasmany Tomas was declared a free agent last Thursday. The Phillies were the first club to organize a private workout with the Cuban and are said to have always preferred him over fellow countryman Rusney Castillo. The power hitter would fit the Phillies need of young talent without necessitating a trade. The outcome of the Tomas pursuit could accelerate the club’s rebuilding plans – assuming they can swallow a possible nine-digit price tag.
If payroll stays consistent around $175MM, Howard, Lee, and Hamels represent over 40 percent of expenditures. Currently, about $132.67MM is guaranteed in 2015 with another $10MM estimated through arbitration. Burnett’s $12.75MM player option will play a big role in available payroll. Depending on his decision, the Phillies appear to have about $20MM to $35MM to spend over the offseason. It’s possible declining attendance will lead to a lower payroll, or perhaps valuable opportunities like Tomas will lead to more spending.
Hamels is the club’s most valuable Major League asset. Amaro reportedly asked teams for their three top prospects in return for Hamels – a price at which many scoffed. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs confirmed that Hamels has some value with his current contract, but the financial cost does make it hard for another club to justify an exorbitant prospect fee.
As the Phillies’ most marketable trade commodity, the club will have trouble pulling the trigger on a Hamels deal. Most rebuilding franchises will conduct a fire sale and count on a quantity of well-regarded prospects to provide value down the road. The Phillies basically get to take one shot at finding their future. Prospect-rich teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, and Dodgers are expected to make a play for Hamels, who can block trades to 20 clubs.
The team has caught a lot of flak over the years for Howard’s contract, and the criticism seems well deserved. Since his current contract kicked in prior to 2012, Howard has provided -1.0 fWAR. That places him among the worst players over that time span despite collecting one of the highest annual salaries.
Philadelphia has tried to dump Howard to any AL franchise while assuming most of the remaining payroll. So far, the fish won’t bite. The club could opt to dismiss the former star and eat his salary, although that seems like a hasty measure without an alternative in place. Darin Ruf is the backup first baseman, with Franco in apparent need of more minor league seasoning.
Lee is another pricey player who might not live up to his contract. Whereas there is little hope of a resurgence from Howard, Lee could recover his past form if the flexor tendon in his left elbow heals over the offseason. This year, he pitched to a 3.65 ERA with 7.97 K/9 and 1.33 BB/9 in 81 innings while missing most of the second half.
Lee’s $27.5MM option for 2016 becomes guaranteed if he throws 200 innings next season without ending on the disabled list with a left arm injury. Otherwise, it becomes a club option with a hefty $12.5MM buyout. An offseason trade of Lee seems unlikely due to his injury, though it’s possible that a team like the Dodgers would be willing to assume some or all of the contract as a way to acquire a possible star at a minimal prospect cost.
With the Phillies’ top three starting pitchers uncertain to return and/or produce in 2015, rotation depth will be a priority for the club. Kendrick could be re-signed as a familiar face. He’s a reliable if unexciting option to absorb innings for a rebuilding club. Internal options include David Buchanan, 2014 draftee Aaron Nola, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, and Jonathan Pettibone. Prospect Jesse Biddle could figure as a mid-season addition.
Even if the Hamels, Lee, and Burnett remain in Philadelphia, the team may want to acquire two starters via free agency or trade. A top-flight free agent is an unlikely acquisition, and competition could keep them away from mid-market targets. Again, Tomas’ decision could affect the club’s direction in the rotation. It would be easier to justify signing a Brandon McCarthy if a quick path to contention was evident. Similarly, if Burnett declines his option, the Phillies may be more inclined to investigate other mid-market options.
The outfield is perhaps an area of consternation for the Phillies. Byrd performed as expected, as did Revere. However, Brown turned in a lousy season with just 10 home runs and a .235/.285/.349 line. The club may be ready to execute a change of scenery move. Certainly, Brown’s grasp on regular playing time has eroded.
The free agent market for outfielders is fairly thin, and trading for a notable outfielder could be difficult to balance with the club’s priorities. Philadelphia could still cash in on Byrd over the offseason to take advantage of the paucity of outfielders in free agency. As for depth pieces, the club received solid production from Sizemore and could consider another one-year deal. Perhaps they would consider recently designated outfielder Jose Tabata too. Most internal options like Cesar Hernandez and Gwynn are defense-oriented. The lone exception is prospect Kelly Dugan, but he’s struggled with injuries and has yet to show much in-game power.
On the face of it, the infield is stable. Howard, Utley, and Rollins have manned their respective positions since 2005 while Cody Asche or Franco will probably handle third base. If Howard isn’t back for 2015, the club has a few internal solutions. Utley could move to first base with either Asche, Hernandez, or Freddy Galvis serving at second base. Alternatively, Franco or Ruf could step directly into the first base job. Some speculate that playing first base could help Utley remain healthy and effective, although such claims are not accompanied by evidence.
While an external hire is unlikely, third base is an area of depth in free agency. If Philadelphia has its eyes on the postseason, Aramis Ramirez might be of interest – assuming he turns down his half of a mutual option. Ramirez is entering his age-37 season, which doesn’t appear to be a good fit for the Phillies. However, he could give Asche and Franco space to develop while improving the on-field product. He may come with a qualifying offer attached, but the Phillies’ first round pick is protected, meaning he would require forfeiture of a second-round selection.
Since he’s available to sign now, Tomas appears primed to be the first domino to fall in the free agent market. His decision may affect the direction of the Phillies offseason. If Philadelphia gambles on the Cuban, they might be more inclined to aim for a competitive roster in the next couple years. Unless they find a similarly high-ceiling youngster around which to build, the situation looks bleak.
The outlook should be one word: “Grim.”
Don’t the Phillies remind you of the drunk who won the lottery and managed to waste it in 2 years and is back to being broke again?
Hahaha well said!
phillies wont be relevant until 2017 when most of the contracts are off the books but at this rate wont have the prospects to show for it.
Very similar scenario to what happened to the White Sox post 2005…
except the white sox didnt have a bunch of bloated contracts.
I suppose not like the Phils, but they kept paying for mediocrity and rode that horse into the ground. I’ll say that Kenny Williams did have a plan and kept them in the hunt until the bottom fell out of the tank.
2016 is the huge young FA’s available… That’s when we make our biggest moves. Lee’s contract ends this year as does Rollins. That’s 36 Million, and more can be chopped off to be sure. Yes, 2017 the rest comes off.. but 2016’s FA class is too good not to spend on.
On a similar note, Howard is only due $12.5MM (buyout) for 2017, so that brings it up to $48.5MM… And while I won’t cheer if it happens, if Utley’s option doesn’t vest (500 PAs/season for a $15MM season the following year), that’s another $10-15MM off the books either in 2016 or 2017.
Papelbon’s contract also ends after 2016 at the latest, which is another $13MM off the books.
The Phillies have a few young prospects no more then two years away. JP Crawford, Aaron Nola, Roman Quinn are a good start. Phils haven’t traded away any notable prospects since the Pence deal.
We haven’t traded for anyone since Pence either except for Revere, and we did give up Worley and May – Worley has become good after moving bac to the NL (PITTSBURGH) and May looks real good after a breakout AAA season. I do like the 2 prospects we got from trading Roberto Hernandez – surprised we got 2 decent prospects actually.
Amaro won on that one.
Had we not traded anyone, our team would look like this:
1B) Howard – Singleton
2B) Utley – Punto
SS) Rollins – Villar
3B) Asche – Franco
C) Ruiz – d’ Arnaud
LF) Brown – Ruf
CF) Bourn – Gose
RF) Byrd – Santana – Taylor
P) Hamels – Cosart – Worley – Carrasco – Happ
Buchanan – Wolf – Kendrick – Pettibone – Drabek
RP) Giles – Diekman – De Fratus – Bastardo – Hollands – Rosenberg
MAG –
Worley looked good for a while after going to Pittsburgh (after failing to catch on with two other teams), but came crashing back down pretty fast. From mid-August through the end of the season, he carried a 3.54 ERA and only managed more than 6.1 IP once in those final 8 starts.
Trevor May looked pretty good in AAA this year, then proceeded to look really, really bad in all 10 of his appearances (9 GS) in the majors. He averaged fewer than 5 IP/start, with an ERA North of 7, a 1.774 WHIP, 1.4(!) HR/9 and K/BB ratio barely above 2.
Worley went 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA for the Pirates. Nit pick all you want – i look at his overall season. Trevor May went 8-6 with a 2.84 ERA in AAA. He only started 9 games for the Twins, and yes, he looked bad. but 9 games will never be a ruler of how someone will fair in a full season. Just like you loved to do in the previous post. He may or may not become a good starter… Jury is still out on him, perfect example is Carlos Carrasco – look how long it took him to put it together… but he did.
And BTW – All I ever said was this was how the Phillies team would be if they never traded anyone.. so why so defensive?
Wrong Miguel Gonzalez under guaranteed contracts by the way…Linking to the O’s pitcher and not Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
It’s a pity that Philly doesn’t have a better GM, because this is a magnificent challenge.
Right. They can carry payroll too, this isn’t a cheap spending ownership group. It’s incompetent gm.
Not moving some of those contracts at the deadline was incomprehensible…. I know that some no trade clauses were in play.. but still. Serious Phillies fans seem fine with an honest rebuild… do you think management won’t fearing it’ll kill ticket sales?
“Serious Phillies fans” don’t make up the large majority of the people who buy tickets and merchandise. That’s not even a Philly-specific problem. If you are a successful organization, the largest group of your consumer is going to be people who are really only there (and buying things) when you are good.
I do think they fear a rebuild will kill ticket sales; I read something to that effect. But the attendance figures have fallen off a cliff and will probably drop more next year, so they’re losing people either way. They can either keep this team and pull 25,000 fans per game indefinitely or rebuild and have 15,000 per game (probably more) for 3-4 years before being good again. To me, the latter is easily the best choice (especially noting that money isn’t really an issue for this team)…but this leadership doesn’t seem too drawn to numbers or logic.
If Phillies ownership wanted to learn more about the fan base, they could simply look at how fans are reacting to the Sixers’ long rebuild: The fans are understanding, appreciative, and excited. The same would be true for Phillies fans, who are desperate for change.
It is not fair to compare tanking in the NBA to rebuilds in baseball.
Due to the over-sized influence a top draft(s) pick can have on a team, tanking is easier for the casual fan to swallow in the NBA over MLB.
Also, in the NBA, your draft picks start the same year you pick them.
In MLB, we’re looking at a 3-6-year development cycle first.
Actually, most Sixers fans were incredibly irate over this year’s draft (Embiid in particular), and the general consensus seems to be “we’ll give you one more year before we start rioting.”
That said, Sixers tickets sales have been declining ever since they started the rebuild, so it doesn’t really matter what the people are saying as what they’re doing.
Fantastic analysis. I believe our franchise would’ve been ok if two players performed: Ryan Howard and Dom Brown. Everyone else’s performance was ok (Ruiz and Utley could be a bit better) but these two deadweights need to be gone. Release, trade, I dont care, but they are cancers to success, because we keep trying to play them and they continue to show below average value.
First step is signing Tomas, i give up on the team unless we do that. I wonder how high our payroll can go, however. We will see, but I hope we get him.
I think they can easily get better in offense just by dumping Howard and D Brown. Addition by subtraction. Howard got close to 100 RBI hitting .223 with 190Ks. Imagine how many more runs they could have got with someone who hit even .250 and could drive in the runner from third with less than 2 outs instead of striking out.
That in addition to his inability to score from second is huge. I’ve seen them get 3 singles in an inning without scoring. With a team that struggles to score it drove me crazy.
Howard has ALWAYS struck out alot… the .223 average was bad, but he did bat .266 in 2013 – his career average is .265 – I can see him hitting .250 next year if he remains with the Phillies. He scored 65 Runs, which isn’t bad. If he stays, he cannot bat 4th anymore though. He’s better off batting 5th and letting Byrd bat 4th, breaking up Utley and Howard lefty/lefty – That and he should platoon with Ruf or Franco. If Brown stays, same goes, he should platoon with Ruf.
Howard batted only .184 with the bases empty, but hit .263 with runners on base. So your rant that he didn’t do his “job” is wrong.. he had 93 RBI’s because he did hit with men on.
This is also the reason why he should NOT bat clean-up anymore, because more often than not, The Phillies went down 1,2,3 to end the 1st inning, making Howard the lead-off hitter in Inning 2.
As far as his being traded, as long as the Phillies eat all but $10 Million – AL clubs can look at last year when he batted .263 as a DH and have a little comfort that his .223 BA isn’t the NORM for him.
Howard also did surprisingly well against LHP this year. Not enough to justify his contract, but above-average in general, and much better than against RHP.
A starting first baseman, who played in 153 games and had 648 plate appearances, scored 65 runs, and the claim is that’s “not bad”? No, it’s horrible. It’s beyond atrocious. Unless you’re playing a defensive wizard at a premium defensive position, scoring 65 runs in 648 plate appearances is absolutely unacceptable
Fangraphs early 2015 projections have Dom Brown
130 G / 55 R / 18 HR / 62 RBI / 7 SB / .256 AVG
Would you be okay with that?
People saw Howard’s decline coming years prior to him even signing his extension (except RAJ, of course) and honestly, a realistically decent season from him and Brown would’ve added what, 1-3 more wins this season? Howard’s averaged less than 0.2 wins over the past 5 seasons and Domonic Brown has one decent season scattered across 4 horrid ones.
The Phillies need to steer away from the path the Mets took from 2008-2011 when they constantly tried to fix themselves with silly free agent signings to hide a deteriorating core when they needed to just straight-out rebuild. Even if Tomas does turn out to be MLB-ready, the Phillies signing him would simply be applying lipstick to a pig.
People saw Howard declining. Nobody saw him tearing his Achilles and falling off a cliff like he has.
True, but even at his best, he was mostly a one dimensional player (with only two years hitting over .280). He has always been a horrific baserunner and defender and prone to massive amounts of strikeouts. Even in the two seasons preceding his injury, 2010 and 2011, he was worth only 1.2 WAR each year. This drop-off is probably due in part to his injury and is steeper than people would have expected, but not by that much.
And that’s because WAR is not a good evaluator of specific players so much as a general trend-detector. There is really no way that Howard’s .859 and .835 OPS (driven by over 30 HRs/season) could have been brought down so much by the 14 and 9 errors he was charged (respectively) that he’d turned into a replacement-level player.
Also, it’s not so much the WAR drop-off that people think was greatly exacerbated by the injury. It’s the bat.
Errors aren’t used in WAR, as they are a subjective measure (official scorers decide what an error is; WAR uses data to measure fielding ability).
Errors are incorporated into UZR, which is used as one of the fielding metrics in extrapolating WAR.
How much better could Utley be? He’s 35, put up a .746 OPS at 2B and a WAR of 3.6
He could perform with some degree of consistency over the course of six months…rather than falling off a cliff in June and looking like he has lost 75 lbs by September.
Then again, this has pretty much been Utley’s norm for years, and isn’t really associated with his age, but some feel a less physically demanding defensive position would help him sustain his performance and physical condition over a whole season. Whether there is anything to that presumption…well, your guess is as good as mine.
They could put him at 1st and trade Howard.
Who would take Howard?
The Washington Generals, maybe? They are used to being embarrassed. And a $25M/yr player providing replacement-level production (or worse) is pretty embarrassing.
when the Phillies eat 50 of the 60 million remaining, there will be AL clubs that should be willing to take him on, how many other DH’s hit more HR’s and had more RBI’s??? Ortiz and V-Mart – that’s it. Howard would have been the 3rd best DH in the AL last year. Amazing, huh?
LOL good point, but I’d swap him for A-Rod.
And where would you put Howard with Tex at 1B?/
Howard could play SS. He’d almost have as good of range as Jeter! I kid, I kid.
lol, well if we are going to make jokes about defense, both Howard and Jeter are ranked 6th Worst all time at 1B and SS respectively in UZR/150 among players with 5000+ innings.
Sad thing – one has 5 Gold Gloves.
Lol. Call it a makeup award for the MVP he was robbed of in 06.
DH Howard, Tex still at 1st. A-Rod wont be around to take up DH at bats.
So make Beltran full time RFer? Ehh.
I think a smart move would be to trade Beltran to a team like the Mariners who can use his bat too. Make Yankees pay most of his money, Yankees could get maybe something solid in return. Beltran can be RF/DH in Seattle.
Well Howard could also provide depth at 1st to give Tex days off. I’d much rather have Howard then a guy like Kelly Johnson at first if Teix gets hurt. But before we trade Beltran lets see how good he can hit once his elbow recovers.
DH of course….
according to Fangraphs, his war was 4.1
Ok. For the record I was using Baseball Reference.
As a fan of baseball, I hope the Phillies don’t sign Tomás. As a Mets fan, it would make me ecstatic. Just another big money/low-return signing – Tomás is comparable to Dariel Álvarez – a guy who signed for $800,000 and is currently in AAA barely holding his own.
Being a fan of a team that is in the lower third of team payroll, it just gives me satisfaction that the tide is turning. Money spent just does not guarantee success. Of the top 6 highest spending teams this year, half made the playoffs and are already eliminated and one finished last in their division.
I agree, and I’m a Phillies fan.
Except you’ll notice that the lower third of payroll has still been increasing, while the top has been mostly static.
The reason money can’t buy success as much as it used to is because teams are locking up their homegrown stars to expensive, long-term contracts. In the short term, this deflates the FA market and causes all but the biggest of the big-spenders in any given year (LAA, LAD, NYY) to fall flat.
In the longer term, however, I think they’ll find that this backfires a bit. Joey Votto’s a good example, as is Ryan Howard, actually.
You are so right. Now all that is left to be FAs is players on the downhill of their career who are more prone to injury( ie. Yankees). Locking them early can backfire but there is more of a chance for them to be productive when they are approaching 30 than past it. Votto’s contract is way to long and it was just plain foolish to give Howard his extension with 2 years left on his old contract. Those are on the GM for doing those deals.
I don’t disagree, but it’s unlikely that either would have signed for as little(!) as they did if they hit FA. As bad as Howard’s deal looks, put it up next to Pujols’ or Fielder’s and suddenly it’s downright reasonable. Same with Votto’s.
I think we’ll have a yo-yo setup for a number of years, where contracts get either too long or too short before the league hits a sweet spot… Around which time the MLBPA and owners will meet again to change the CBA.
My personal opinion on the offseason:
1. Convince AJ to not exercise his option.
2. Trade Byrd and Bastardo to San Francisco for Lincecum, Ty Blach, and Clayton Blackburn.
3. Trade Papelbon to Detroit for Joe Nathan and Domingo Leyba
4. Sign 2 of Brett Anderson, Chad Billingsley, Colby Lewis. Justin Masterson, or Brandon Morrow to 1 year deals (maybe a 2nd year club option on Anderson, Billingsley, and Morrow) – with the intent to flip at least 1 at the deadline.
5. Try and trade Howard (an AL team with a DH spot open) while eating ~$50 M.
6. Make a run at Yasmani Tomas (preferably, not over 7 years/$100 M).
7. If 6 fails, sign Colby Rasmus to a 1 year deal.
8. See where the teams who pursued Scherzer/Lester/Shields are – offer Hamels for a good prospect group from a team that missed out on one of those 3 (BoSox or Cubs).
1. Why would he walk away from 13 million just because Philly asked him to?
2. San Fran wouldn’t give up 2 well regarded prospects for 1 year of a good middle reliver, an outfielder they don’t really have room for and some salary relief.
I don’t think that they it’s going to take a lot to convince him to retire. I also don’t think that he has a real urgency for making that $13 M (just a gut feeling, so I could be wrong).
As for San Fran, Blach and Blackburn are mid-rotation guys in AA. My scenario also counts on the Giants falling short of the WS (if they win, I don’t think they will need to make any moves). And how don’t they have room for Byrd? Their LFers in this last series were Travis Ishikawa and Juan Perez – with no impact bat on the way.
1) AJ will make his decision based on the outcome of his surgery.. If he
accepts the option, I look for him to pitch more like 2013 than 2014, as do
the experts.
2) Why would we want a 17 million dollar Lincecum who is now the most
expensive reliever in history? Byrd can be offered to the Mariners with
Bastardo for Pitchers Elias and Ramirez.
3) Yankees would fit better in a trade for Papelbon – for Gary Sanchez.
4) If Burnett takes the deal, then you need to sign a better #4 – someone
like Peavy or Masterson – And then Hammel or McCarthy.
5) Agree with trading Howard to an AL team while eating 50 million.
He hit .263 as a DH and .260 with men on base. He’s also a lifetime .265
6) NEED Tomas! Agreed.
7) Colby in CF, Revere goes to LF.. agreed.
8) Agreed on #8 as well…
1. I’ve said since mid-July that I don’t expect AJ to pitch next year. It’s a gut feeling I’ve had (mainly because of the surgery/rehab he’s going to have to go through).
2. I’d use Lincecum as a starter still. I view 2015 as a lost season, and want the best possible assets going into 2016. In my eyes, Blach and Blackburn are better assets than Elias and Ramirez.
3. Yankees have a stud in Betances. He’ll be their closer if they don’t bring Robertson back (either through a QO or a 2 year deal similar to Pap).
4. Like I said, I see 2015 as a lost year, so Hammel and McCarthy aren’t helping in the long run (considering they’d both probably be looking for more than 1 year deals).
6. I really like Tomas – but he appears to be a 2-3 WAR player (by most scouts/projections). Jose Abreu’s fantastic season has skewed the Cuban market back toward “normal” FA. I’m already scared that someone is going to way overpay for him (before the Phillies got involved).
#2 – which is why the Giants won’t trade them for Byrd and Bastardo. Why would we want Lincecum’s salary and can’t even keep a rotation spot with the Giants? Plus Lincecum has a FULL No-Trade clause… don’t think he’ll want to come here.
#3 – yes Betances is a stud, but as a set-up man in a rookie year – Robertson is looking for a 4 year deal for Papelbon money…
#4 – Hammel and McCarthy on 3 year deals, as our #3 + #4 starters would be fine by me…
#5 – Tomas is needed – no one doubt the power he has, and at 23 – he’ll only get better, not like the other Cuban players that were signed at age 27 and already in their prime.
Ruben Amaro isn’t going anywhere before his contract expires after next year, if even then. The Phillies organization is run like an old boys club; loyalty trumps results or logic. There’s no way of understanding this leadership’s strategy or plan, if they even have one. (Ruben notoriously enraged Philadelphia by saying he “doesn’t do” five year plans, and it shows.) This team is in ruins because of this pitiful leadership.
One point of optimism for me is that, after watching the Tigers’ and Dodgers’ bullpen struggles this postseason, maybe they’ll make a deal for Papelbon this offseason.
And that’s about my only point of optimism.
Go Eagles.
I think the Yankees may be the best suited to trade for Papelbon. Would give them one of the best Closers and they always seem to like getting ex-Bosox players. I see Detroit more looking at Miller than a closer. Nathan is still their closer, and his 1 bad year won’t be enough for them to give up on him, plus Soria, Coke and Chamberlain are all FA’s – They should go after the likes of Miller and Neshek – As for the Dodgers, Jansen is nasty and is their closer no doubt – again, they will be looking for the set-up guys instead.
All of that hinges on what happens with David Robertson.
Robertson is a FA who will be looking for a 3/4 year deal and according to mlbrumors.com – they quote this:
“in spite of the QO that’s likely to be attached to his name, I imagine that the goal for his camp will be to top Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM guarantee. I’m predicting a four-year, $52MM contract for Robertson when all is said and done.”
The QO in 2015 is 15.3 million. <—- !!!!
That said, Robertson finished 4-5 with a 3.08 ERA with 39 saves and 5 blown saves.
Papelbon finished 2-3 with a 2.03 ERA w/ 39 saves and 4 blown saves. with just 2 years left on his contract (2nd year has to vest)
And because they have a ready-made replacement candidate in the form of Dellin Betances in the fold, he would most likely be better staying the best set-up man for another year while trading for Paps instead of resigning Robertson.
Out of curiosity, I’ve always been a Grady Sizemore fan. I watched him play a little this year, but not that much. Do you all who watched the Phillies all season think he played well enough to come back next season? For any team?
He’s a 4th OFer at this point (maybe half of a platoon). Philly fans loved him because he was different from what they were putting out there. But in reality, he shouldn’t be counted on to play a full season, so I can’t imagine he’ll get much more than a 1 year, ~$3 M deal.
He’s good enough to be offered a 1 year MLB deal, would be a fine 4th OF. Not sure if he can be an everyday player anymore though. He proved he was healthy this year, I think next year he’ll have to prove he can be even 1/2 the batter he used to be. But yes, he deserves to be back on a MLB deal of 1 year plus incentives.
That is good to hear. I was rooting for him all season. I was disappointed when the Red Sox released him, although I totally get why they did.
Out of the box idea:
Tigers trade Verlander for Lee (assuming he passes physical).
Verlander will have to reinvent himself, but he is coming off a core surgery year and there is a high probability he will be more like the Sept 2014 Verlander v. the rest of the year. Pitching in the National League and away from the Tigers poor defense would help Verlander as he now gets fewer strikeouts and has to rely on batters putting the ball in play.
Lee is a risk for the Tigers, but it frees up money in future years for the Tigers to sign 2 out of 3: Scherzer, Price, Porcello.
Yes the Phillies woud have to assume more money in future years, but their obligation in 2015 would actually go DOWN in this deal.
No way that comes close to happening. Verland looked pretty bad, and you aren’t talking small amounts of money. Verlander is guaranteed over $100MM more from this point on.
Verlander was playing hurt for 2/3rds of the year. His offseason lifting program was bi-passed, which contributed to a 2MPG loss in fastball velocity… which messed up his whole arsenal.
His 2015 should be better than his 2014 has be becomes a smarter pitcher with more strength.
Moot point as the Tigers would never make that deal. But that is the type of gamble the Phillies would need to make to get better.
Why would the Phillies make this deal? Makes no sense to tack on more payroll, for a longer number of years, on another over 30 pitcher in decline.
You make that deal if you think Verlander can be THE Verlander for 3+ years. Like I said earlier… moot point, the Tigers would not waste a year of their “playoff window” and overpay injury prone Lee.
At least they know that Verlander has a track record of a being an ace in the playoffs regardless of his regular season stats.
Lee has a much better track record in the playoffs than Verlander does.
Why wouldn’t the Tigers consider that?
It would be an awesome opportunity to get out from under that contract. I don’t think a rapidly declining pitcher on a massive contract is the type deal the Phillies need to get. That is exactly their problem.
How do you know he is truly “declining”?
There is a viable root cause to his underwhelming year: core surgery.
His Sept was better, an indicator that he finally was feeling himself.
His fastball velocity was down, but not to the degree that people think. About 2.5 MPH down v. his Cy Young/MVP. A big part of that could simply be the long recovery and lack of offseason weight training that he normally does.
The big problem with what you’re saying is that the core surgery “COULD” be why he is declining. Or, it could be that he’s past 30 and is unlikely to ever pitch as well as he once did. Pitchers over 30 don’t usually recover that lost MPH (and 2.5 MPH is huge), and they become injured more frequently. There’s way too much risk it’s the latter.
Verlander had 4 PLUS Pitches, historically rare for a pitcher.
If his Fastball is down 2MPH, then maybe he only has 3 PLUS Pitches… still very rare to have that.
He just need to focus more on location, accept that some balls will be put in play instead of Ks, and reduce the % of fastballs.
People said the same thing about Roy Halladay when his fastball velocity dropped a few MPH, and it would make sense wouldn’t it? Best pitcher in baseball with at least 4 pitches, but it doesn’t just magically work like that.
Once they lose a few miles off their fastball, it changes the set up for all of their pitches. The breaking pitches are less deceptive, things are less sharp, and your whole repertoire suffers.
I don’t doubt that Verlander can have a few more successful seasons, but I’m just saying the Phillies wouldn’t take that risk – he’s unlikely to ever be the pitcher he was from 2009-2012.
Verlander’s main problem is arrogance. He has to be a bit more crafty. Also, as he gets older, he needs his defense more. The Tigers defense is terrible.
When you lose that much off your fastball everything else changes. Many times everything else doesn’t look nearly as unhittable once you take that out. In his past he was averaging 96.36, and the change was coming in at 84.63. Now the fb is coming in at 93.41 and the changeup is coming in at 84.47. So his fastball has dropped almost 3 mph from his prime, and the changeup has barely moved. When you know you got 96 coming at you, you have to start early, now he is much closer to an average pitcher and you got that much more time to pick up on the location.
He may be able to make the adjustment, but do you really want to risk the $140MM that it will cost to take on that contract? Why not just sign Lester or Scherzer?
Also. His fastball has been declining in speed for 5 straight years now, and he is 31. I would be pretty confident that he is declining. It’s just a matter of how fast.
It’s the Phillies that would never make that deal, and with good reason.
Verlander is to be paid: 2015: $28M, 2016: $28M, 2017: $28M,2018: $28M, 2019: $28M
Lee is expected back healthy and is to make: and to that point, his “risk” is just for 2015… because if he cannot pitch 200 innings or ends up on the DL to finish the year, his 2016 option does not vest.
2015:$25M
2016 Team Option: $27.5M ($12.5M buyout)
Guaranteed if: a) pitches 200 innings in 2015 b) pitches 400 innings in 2014 and 2015 c) must not finish 2015 on disabled list.
The ONLY way this makes even a little bit of sense is if the Tigers also take on Howard’s and Papelbon’s full remaining contracts. That said, The Tigers would also have to include a prospect or two as well… Collins & Kyle Ryan
Cliff Lee: 1 year at $37.5MM?
Yes because of his buyout.
Thanks. I forgot the $12.5MM buyout… that’s huge money for 34 starts!
Assuming you don’t get/want him in 2016, in which case it would drop to $25MM/year for 2 years.
That’s the total guarantee remaining. It’s split at $25MM in 2015 and $12.5MM buyout for ’16.
Cliff Lee get 37 million next season?
Any PHI fans have any idea if Lee might retire after this contract is over?
He has never indicated any suggestions of him retiring, As long as he is healthy, he’ll continue to Pitch. He’s that good… and no people, he’s NOT getting 37 Million next year, on the books, he’ll get $25 Million for 2015 and a buyout of $12.5 Million in 2016. If he pitches 200 Innings in 2015 and doesn’t end the year on the DL, his 2016 option will vest.
While the bullpen is definitely a strength now, it was exactly the opposite to start the season. I don’t think it would be a stretch to say that if the Phillies had started with the same BP they finished with, they’d have been 2nd in the division rather than last (not a tremendous benchmark, since that’s only 6-7 more wins and still under .500).
Don’t think Kendrick will be back, don’t see much value in his low innings and mediocre stats. Not to mention that his salary will be going up if he stays with the club, unless they do a release and resign sort of thing.
There’s no need to release KK. He’s not arb-eligible, he’s a full FA this year.
If he’s willing to take a 2-year/$8-11MM, or a 1-year/$6MM, I’d be ok with having him back, simply due to the paucity of above average starters available in FA this year.
Otherwise, yes, by all means, let him walk.
Why would you want him back at any cost?? 11-12, 10-13, 10-13 the past 3 years with ERA’s around 4.60 – No thanks! Buh Bye….
Are you really citing Win/Loss records? Really? How about Hamels’ 9-9? Or his 8-14 in 2013?
As to why we’d want back a guy who (for the past 3 years) has averaged a 4.50 ERA? Because given the number of innings he pitches, that’s worth something. It’s not worth $10MM/year, no, but it’s better than what we’d get from Pettibone. It’s likely better than what we’d get from MAG. It’s better than what we’d get from [generic, scrap-heap AAAA 5th starter number 7,329] on a not-significantly-smaller contract…
You can’t have a full rotation of #1s and 2s every year. We got spoiled with 2 years of that, but you have to be willing to deal with some poorer starters in the back of your rotation. That’s just how baseball works.
That’s how losing teams work… Who made the playoffs with poor starters in the back of their rotations? Which ones are they?
Cardinals? – Wainwright / Lynn / Lackey / Wacha / Miller
Giants? – Bumgarner / Peavy / Hudson / Petit / Volgelsong
Nationals? – Strasburg / Zimm / Fister / Gio / Roark
Pirates? – Cole / Liriano / Volquez / Morton / Leake
Dodgers? – Kershaw / Greinke / Ryu / Haren / Hernandez
Angels? – Weaver / Wilson / Shoemaker / Richards / Santiago
A’s? – Lester / Gray / Kazmir / Samardzija / Hammel
Orioles? – Tillman / Gonzalez / Chen / Norris / Gausman
Tigers? – Scherzer / Price / Verlander / Sanchez / Porcello
Royals? – Shields / Ventura / Vargas / Guthrie / Duffy
Pitcher ERA in order you listed:
Cardinals: 2.38/2.74/4.30/3.20/3.74 – and I notice you left out Jaime Garcia (4.12 ERA, 7 GS), Joe Kelly (4.37 ERA, 7 GS) and Justin Masterson (7.04 ERA, 6 GS)
Giants: 2.98/2.17 (12 GS)/3.57/3.69 (12 GS)/4.00 (and I notice you didn’t include the 4.74 ERA Lincecum {26 GS} or 4.18 ERA Cain {15GS})
Nats: 3.14/2.66/2.41/3.57/2.81 (Best corroboration of your point, and they’re out after the NLDS)
Pirates: 3.65/3.38/3.04/3.72/3.91 (assuming you mean Locke, not Leake) – that leaves out 4.89 (10 GS) Crumpton
Dodgers: 1.77(!)/2.71/3.38/4.02/4.74
Angels: 3.59/4.51/3.04/2.61/3.75
As: 2.35/3.08/3.55/3.14/4.26
O’s: 3.34/3.23/3.54/3.65/3.57 – and a very notable absence of Jimenez’s 4.81 through 22 GS
Tigers: 3.15/3.59/4.54/3.43/3.43 – plus Smily’s 3.93 (18 GS)
Royals: 3.21/3.20/3.71/4.13/2.53 – not counting Chen’s 7.45 over 6 GS.
In other words, yes, almost every team in the playoffs had “bad” starters in the backs of their rotations. I put “bad” in quotation marks, because that’s just what you expect from a #4/5. Really a #4, since a #5 you expect worse, and a need to be replaced one or more times during the year, which is why most teams have so many pitchers who started more than a couple of games but weren’t injury-based call-ups.
In the case of Kendrick, he can (and does) swing back and forth between dominant and docile, with more emphasis on the latter… But even when he’s bad he’s usually better than any team’s spot-starter/long-reliever, and he just stays remarkably healthy, such that you can count on him to average around 6 innings every start he’s scheduled to make… Which is something you need, even if his ERA is inflated, because it keeps your BP rested enough to perform well in limited appearances.