The Mets jumped the free agent market yesterday in a surprising way, signing right fielder/first baseman Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21MM deal that requires the forfeiture of their #15 overall pick in the 2015 draft. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote, it was a surprising series of events: Cuddyer wasn’t expected to receive a qualifying offer, then he was expected to accept it once the Rockies made it, and the Mets weren’t expected to be interested in him after the draft pick cost was attached. More on the signing:
- Cuddyer said on a conference call with Mets beat writers today that he would have accepted the Rockies’ qualifying offer had he not been signed by the Mets.
- Sullivan suggests a conservative estimate values the Mets’ lost pick around $10-15MM, and feels the team is “slightly overpaying” overall for Cuddyer. Personally, I think the Mets valued the pick lower than $10-15MM, as that estimate seems to assume the Mets’ pick would have become one of the game’s 100 best prospects. If we instead apply Dave Cameron’s 3x valuation of a draft’s slot value, we might get $7.5MM in value, which MLBTR’s Jeff Todd suggested to me yesterday. Jeff further noted the Mets might have reasons to devalue that estimate. I also think we were low in estimating Cuddyer’s QO-free market value at two years and $22MM back in mid-October, and his real market value could easily have been two years and $28MM or three years and $36MM. Clearly the Mets valued the lost pick into their offer one way or another.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News doesn’t even want to hear an argument that the Mets should not have sacrificed the pick for Cuddyer, saying, “Nothing in baseball is more romanticized, fetishized and overvalued than draft picks and prospects.” Martino feels the Cuddyer signing signaled the right mindset for the Mets.
- The Mets initially balked at giving up the pick to sign Cuddyer, writes Marc Carig of Newsday, but GM Sandy Alderson changed his mind. According to assistant GM John Ricco, “I think this is a message that we’re going to be aggressive. And right out of the box, we had a guy we liked and we went out and got him.” The Mets had no interest in offering multiple years to other free agent candidates, says Carig.
- New Rockies GM Jeff Bridich comes out smelling like roses, snagging a supplemental draft pick most didn’t expect he could get. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post has quotes from Bridich, who said, “The way that we looked at it was that if we had Cuddy come back on a one-year deal with us, and had he just purely accepted the offer, that was fine. We tried to engage on multiyear talks from the get-go. Even before the (qualifying) offer was made. When the qualifying offer was made, we said, ’OK, if there is anything to talk about a multiyear offer, let us know. We are ready to engage.’ That doesn’t guarantee it would happen, but we were ready.” It seems Bridich did a better job of reading Cuddyer’s market than the media did.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post likes the signing for the Mets in a 55-45 way. He explains, “He was the outfielder with flaws the Mets knew they could get and there is an upside that makes this a huge gamble probably worth taking. The Mets did not have to touch their pitching surplus to land Cuddyer. They got this done on Nov. 10. They have their stockpile and all winter to address shortstop.”
- Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News has quotes from Ricco regarding Cuddyer’s recent spotty health record. Said Ricco, “He took a physical today. We’ve looked at all the injuries and there was nothing there that we’re too concerned about. And the age is the age. Certainly there’s risk associated with any signing. And we believe in the player and think he’s going to be a real good fit for us.”
I like the signing only if the mets sign another big free agent like Hanley rameriz!
Cuddyer isn’t worth the mets number one pick but hanley is!
I doubt the mets will sign hanley but it really doesn’t make sense sacrificing the number 15 pick without adding a elite type shortstop!
Alexi Rameriz looks like the best possibility because the mets have 2 shortstop prospect who will be ready in 2 years!
Alexi Rameriz for Rafeal Montero?
Who do the Mets ship to Chicago for Ramirez? Guessing some pitching.
Montero seems to be a likely candidate. Not likely to crack the starting rotation and not really suited for the BP. I could see Plawecki also being available as Flowers hasn’t really met expectations and Plawecki and TdA seem redundant.
It seems very difficult to predict white Sox moves. They’ve tended to go the unpredictable route.
As a Met fan I’d welcome Alexi, but I’m not sure trading him makes sense for the Sox. They should be adding pieces.
As I said in another thread, but imo, the Mets are looking into the deep future with a move like this. I actually like this move (and any subsequent ones) more for the future of the team than if they’d kept the 1st round pick.
Here’s why: the Mets have not been good for several years and as such, attendance and revenues have fallen. The Mets have so many young players and even though it’s at least 2-3 years away, if any of them pan out, you’re eventually going to have to start thinking about extending them/paying them. The way salaries are going, that’s going to get very expensive.
Historically, Mets’ attendance numbers are very tied to how well the team is playing. If they can improve the team this offseason to something like a 85 to 88 win team (and with Harvey coming back, it’s possible), they should absolutely do it to increase revenues now as they look deep into the future. Another middling 75-80 win season isn’t going to draw the fans. Mid- to high-80s would, especially if it would put them on the cusp of the playoffs (which, once you’re there, pretty much anything can happen).
Of course, they’re going to need to make a few more moves, but overall I like this.
“…the Mets are looking into the deep future with a move like this.” If they’re still years from contending, the Mets just threw away a first round pick and the remainder of Cuddyer’s career. It seems like other moves will be made this off season for the Mets, and they’ll attempt to make a playoff run next year.
I disagree with your premise. I think the Mets can contend this year. They won 79 games last year in a season where their best every day player (Wright) was injured and played poorly and their ace (Harvey) missed the entire season.
LF was a black hole with EYJ and Chris Young. Signing Cuddyer, even if he only plays 100 games, probably improves the club 2-3 wins. Having Harvey back could improve them 3-5 wins. If they make another move or two (like, for a SS), they should be in the mid-80s in wins.
Plus, they still have Syndergaard, Conforto, Dom Smith, Cecchini, Nimmo, Matz, Reynolds, Plawecki, etc. The farm is in great shape. Time to improve the on-field team.
How does a guy who has averaged a 1.2 WAR over the last 3 seasons improve the club by up to 3 wins?
technically if they were negative in left field in WAR then yes it potentially would be 2-3
Fair enough. Though Chris Young was at a -.0 WAR and EY was at +.9. I’m quibbling over details. The signing takes the Mets in the right direction, though not by a great amount, and a modest overspend to get that 1.2 WAR.
Addition by subtraction with the Youngs plus Cuddyer’s positive (hopefully!) performance.
Three might be pushing it, but two is reasonable. He had 1.2 WAR last year in a third of a season.
2 is borderline AS level, Steamer projects 0.9 for Cuddyer next year, but steamer is conservative. I agree its closer to two for the Mets.
2.0 is not really All-Star level. Players with a 2.0 WAR in 2014 ranked 89th in MLB among qualified players. Kurt Suzuki, Casey McGehee and Jordy Mercer were three guys who had exactly a 2.0 WAR last season.
David Wright had a 1.9 WAR and everyone is basically wringing their hands worrying if he’s going to be all right. Not saying he got gypped out of an All-Star appearance.
If Cuddyer is in that range for two seasons (say 1.5-2.5) I would say this is a successful signing — he’s there as a supporting piece to fill in around the superstars. If he’s well below that, it’s probably not good, and if he’s anywhere above that it’s a flat out steal.
Easy. Cuddyer is an RF, so you put him in RF, moving Grandy to LF. Grandy will gain about a win from the move, keeping everything else the same. Grandy will also be a huge improvement over the Youngs. So Cuddyer replacing the Youngs on offense combined with moving Grandy to LF could easily be worth 3 or more wins on this club because of the replacements and displacement.
you can’t just look at his WAR. He has also averaged over a .800 ops over the last 3 seasons too. That says something
I just don’t see how Cuddyer will be better than Neweinheus/Den Dekker. Anything he does better offensively is going to be offset by his bad defense.
Cuddyer is not a bad RF. Granderson’s problems in right were due to his arm; moving him to LF will strongly improve his defense. And Nieuwenhuis and Den Dekker are fine 4th and 5th OF options.
Yes, but I don’t think he will see the ball as much defensively.
Harvey,Wheeler,Syndergaard,and De Grom each average 9.0+ K’s a game,+ all of these pitchers do get significant ground ball outs.
If we were dealing with Maine, or Perez who regulary induces fly balls I would worry a bit more.
I agree that the Mets shouldn’t think of themselves as “years from contending”. They are a young team, and young players tend to get better. They have Wright and Harvey coming back, they have a very strong group of major-league ready prospects.
I don’t consider them a lock to contend by any means, but I think the era of “wait until the year after next” era is over.
The Mets are so short-sighted as to need this year’s revenue in order to sign assets to extensions?…
Well, yeah, that is about par for the Mets’ course, but probably isn’t best from a business perspective.
It’s the opposite of short-sighted. Not improving the ML club is going to continue giving them very small revenues, meaning they might not be able to sign/extend players when the time comes. Improving the ML club now increases revenues now and gives them flexibility down the line. You’ve got potentially 5-7 players that have a chance of panning out and if only one or two reaches their potential, it’s going to cost a lot of money, especially considering that you’re going to have FA expenditures every year. It is indeed best from a business perspective.
How much revenue is a 2015 1st round pick going to bring in? None for several years with the possibly of none ever. Of course, the pick could work and bring your team wins in the future, but the safer bet for making money in the now is Cuddyer.
No way. Wins translate into attendance right? It doesn’t matter where the wins come from. If their existing players are as good or better than Cuddyer (which I think they are), they’re no reason to sign him.
Are they thinking of also using him at 1B via a Duda platoon?
I agree with you somewhat. Banking on Kirk and/or den Dekker to hit a little seems like a big gamble to me. Prior to 2014, Kirk has had long stretches where he’s been abysmal at the plate. Plus he had a high BABIP (.361) in 2014. den Dekker has shown no power and had a decent BABIP of his own (~.320s) in his limited time in the majors.
Also, yes, I’d imagine they’re thinking of platooning Cuddyer as Duda was very bad against lefties last year.
den Dekker and Niewenhuis are what I think of as AAAA players. Better than minor leaguers but marginal major leaguers. They aren’t kids either. The best years that they will have are in the next two years.
The opposite of short-sighted?… long-scented?
The idea that 6-7 wins in ’15 is going to play an impact in signing whatever core they have long-term is contrary to common business practise.
Um, how so? I clearly laid out what I think with this. Look at past attendance numbers. If the Mets had been 7-8 wins better, attendance would have been better, meaning they’d make more money. Plus they’d have been on the cusp of the playoffs.
When the Mets were winning (2007 or 2008), their attendance was nearly double what it is now. You’re telling me 5,000 more fans a game in the second half of the season is ‘contrary to common business practice’? It means a lot more revenue, revenue which can be used down the line. Fake numbers here, but just 5,000 more fans a game at $20 a ticket in the last 40 games of the year is an extra $4MM. Not to mention the TV ratings.
In the last year at Shea, when the Mets were good, they were drawing 23,000 more fans per game than they are now. The categorically need to improve the team now in order to increase revenues and be able to spend on their own players down the line. It makes complete business sense.
I seriously do not understand what you’re saying here.
A business does not need to feign success (Cuddyer’s 1-2+ wins) in order to invest longer term in it’s strong young core.
It wouldn’t be ‘feigning’ anything. It would be actual, on-the-field success. Signing Cuddyer isn’t about appearances, it’s about actually trying to win. It’s step 1 in trying to make a competitive team in 2015, which would lead to increased revenues. Cuddyer’s there, Harvey’s back, and they’re trying to make a move for a SS.
The Mets don’t have fans that show up in droves when even when the team is losing. More wins = more revenue = more ability to sign guys down the road. I still don’t understand what your point is.
If ‘step 1’ to winning is signing Cuddyer then you need to reevaluate your plan
It’s not a hierarchy of steps. It’s simply move #1. You still haven’t explained your point.
What needs to be explained? Jeff Wilpon wanted a name and Alderson obliged early in the offseason so that he could go back to enjoying early retirement. Unless you believe in unicorns Cuddyer at best will be worth a win and a half. This is a poor signing by any measure, one that has almost no possibility of being worth the cost, let alone exceeding it.
Yup. It’s near-lunacy. This is worse than the Chris Young signing, which at least had upside. Cuddyer’s defense is certain to swallow most of his offense if he’s even capable of staying in the lineup.
Cuddyer projects to be less than half a win better by fangraph’s Steamer than den Dekker. For this the Mets gave up around $30m.
Conversely, den Dekker hasn’t done much yet in the Majors; Cuddyer hit .330 the past two seasons. Cuddy also missed about 200 games over the past three years, but in 2014, in 49 games played, would still have been the Mets’ best LF.
So, you’re setting the bar on the floor now, and pretending Coors field isn’t the best hitters’ park since the Polo Grounds?
Why, oh god, why do I bother?
I am not sure your reply was to me. I was pointing out flaws in both players.
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. I point out den Dekker hasn’t proven himself in the Majors, which is true. Cuddyer has performed well in Coors but also in other stadiums – he has a track record that shows he can hit. He also has an injury history. I have no idea what the point you’re trying to make is, other than try to condescend despite misunderstanding my post.
he put up strong numbers on the road, and at the Metrodome,and target field.
Stop kidding yourself calling him a coors player
Step 1 to winning is developing a strong, young core – the Mets have a GG CF, an RoY pitcher who is arguably the third best pitcher in the 2015 rotation, and lots of other young, talented players. You add Wright, Cuddyer, and Granderson to that and that’s a pretty solid team.
Great signing for the Mets. They don’t need #1 picks right now. For 2015 and 2016, they needed a vet who hit +.300 with power and play the OF.
Highly doubt he’ll hit .300
He could push .300, but I do agree it’s questionable at best. I expect him to come in closer to .280 than .300. Not that AVG really matters alone.
A healthy Wright with a legit 3, 4, 5 is something the team has lacked for a while
And they’ll be keeping that trend alive in 2015, too.
Steamer projects a .329 wOBP, with .262/.322/.425, and 17 HR. That’s as a Rockie. His averages may be a little stronger if he platoons (although then his totals will be worse).
And when you dock him 2-3 wins for his defense for anything close to full time in the field, the Mets have dumped around $30m for a close to replacement level player.
Haha. I like how a 2 year/$21m contract is all the sudden dumping $30m.
maury,also steamer is conservative with their stats so he may hit .270/.330/.430
I don’t agree with the 17 hrs, I think that will be less off
If he hits .270/.333/.435 with 10 hrs, and around 70-80 rbis then thats a major upgrade in LF production
I had to comment on your comment again. If this is a “great signing,” what on earth would you consider a lousy signing?
Jason Bay for 4/70? For 2015 through 2018?
“as that estimate seems to assume the Mets’ pick would have become one of the game’s 100 best prospects.”
Actually the estimate comes from the reports that analyzed the value of various picks over a large time span and the total WAR they put up while under control.
It looks like the reports analyzed the value of BA top 100 prospects. Jeff Sullivan made the leap in saying that the Mets’ #15 pick would have become one of those.
Did you read it? No, no he didnt. He said “could’ve.”
It’s called an “average.”
I did not like this signing at first but after reading all the comments by baseball commentators, it is very hard to disagree with them. Short-term contract for lots of veteran skills and power. Now the Mets can go out and get themselves a good SS via trade.
Thought it was great for Colorado too..somehow managed to turn Cuddyer into a mid 1st round pick. They’d never get that value in a straight mid season trade.
My bad…supplemental pick…but same trade opinion holds.
“Lots of veteran skills.” That’s funny stuff. Are those, like, intangibles that don’t show up in the won loss columns? As for power, if Cuddyer plays his average over the past three years, and we take Citi as his home park, that’s around 15 home runs, tops.
“Now the Mets…”
You mean, after making a ridiculous deal that doesn’t improve the team by more than half a win for the equivalent of thirty million dollars, NOW the Mets can go out an make a sane deal for a shortstop despite having that much less to spend?
This must be an alternative universe.
The signing makes absolutley no sense unless the Mets sign or trade or another middle of the order bat, because it goes everything the Mets have been building up and raving about in recent years, and it puts a 36 year on a team that is trying to be built by young players. The move is only significant enough to make the mets a 82-83 win team, so unless another bat is added that can add another 2-4 wins to the Mets this move is only significant enough to make the Mets mentionable, not contenders, also the move might’ve made sense if Cuddyer played more then 45 games last year, but signing a 36 year who is now prone to injury makes no sense for the Mets.
Agree. And a 15 draft pick is nothing to scoff at. There have been some great players who were drafted 15th overall or slightly lower in the 1st round
If Cuddyer was under contract and the Mets traded a prospect to get him, no one would care. But because it’s the unknown prospect, the Mets made a mistake. Draft picks are the most overrated commodity in baseball.
Let’s see last year’s 15th overall pick was Braden Shipley. I would never trade him straight up for Michael Cuddyer and this 2 year contract. I wouldn’t want Cuddyer on my team, period, let alone for 2/20
“Wouldn’t want Cuddyer on my team, period.” Well, I guess we now know why you didn’t make it as a major league GM.
Ditto for Tyler Naquin, although maybe Jed Bradley and Jake Skole. Although you do have a point a lot of them tend to flare out…just I’m not enthused about Cuddyer
Alderson has built depth through trades. He’s gotten Herrera, Black, Wheeler, d’Arnaud, and Syndergaard just to name a few. When you’re having that kind of success through trades and have gone 4 consecutive drafts without giving up a first rounder, you can change things up once in a while.
Steve Chillcott?
How many wins do you think Matt Harvey adds?
>>>>The signing makes absolutley no sense unless the Mets sign or trade or another middle of the order bat, because it goes everything the Mets have been building up and raving about in recent years, <<<<
No, it doesn't, at all. This is the REASON you dedicate yourself to building up the farm system — so that you have enough depth and organizational wealth that some pieces of it, and draft picks, become expendable, in the name of making the team better now.
Your argument here is like saying the Mets should never trade anybody in their farm system, ever, because it would make them hypocrites for restocking the farm system. It's just ludicrous and doesn't work that way.
At this point in time, because they're close to contending and because they have a top 5 farm system, by many accounts including Keith Law, they value a player who can help them NOW over the value of a #15 pick in the draft. That is in no way a contradiction to what they have been doing since 2011; rather, it is Phase II of it.
I heard one of the “experts” on MLB Network Radio describe Jeff Bridich’s decision to QO Cuddyer as a ‘rookie GM mistake’. Does not look so much like that now, does it?
Just because the Mets bailed out Colorado with a mediocre decision and Cuddyer chose to take 5.7 MM for a second guaranteed year does not mean Jeff Bridich made a good decision. Bad process, good result.
I didn’t see the qo to Cuddyer as a real impediment to Colorado if accepted. It might have meant Morneau being dealt. It meant nothing toward acquiring pitching, which they certainly aren’t going to buy on the open market. They’ll have to deal Tulo/Cargo for that…but then that also leaves them in an offensive quandary…but offense is much easier to deal with in CO than pitching.
Bad process? Agreed, if you mean the mere existence of the QO “system”. It appears that Bridich rolled the dice that Cuddyer would be the first to break ranks and take a QO and got the Rockies a draft pick they would not otherwise gotten.
Unless, of course, he knew that the Mets were very committed to signing David Wright’s friend.
If they add another middle of the order bat this is a good move. He may not be a game breaker but I could see him as the Paul Lo Duca type back in 06. He was part of the Delgado trade and wound up being a quality at bat in the lineup.
Have to disagree with Martino’s comments. It’s such an old way of thinking. The most overvalued things in baseball are intangibles like “mindset”, ” grit” and “veteran presence”. Draft picks and prospects were undervalued for a long time until recently. Teams recognize that prospects can provide a tremendous amount of excess value that is unlikely to be matched by a FA, especially two years of a 36 year old who has never had 3 WAR season. Though this got me thinking, if the Twins or Cubs were to sell their entire farm systems how much would they be worth? I’d imagine a lot and that type of equity is built through the draft. As long as there is a slotting system draft picks will be valued highly.
Draft picks are less valuable to a team with a strong farm than to a team with a weak farm. Alderson has also shown he can build effective depth through trades – Black, Herrera, TdA, Syndergaard, and Wheeler come to mind.
I don’t think I could agree with that statement. No matter how strong a farm system, there is always room for improvement. Smart teams with strong farm systems should continue to add prospects (and highly value the best/cheapest method on acquiring them) as there are no guarantees their current prospects will pan out as injuries, FA departures and ineffectiveness are bound to happen.
Alderson does deserve credit for adding talent through trades, but that’s not a model that can be depended on entirely. There needs to be some success in International FA and the draft. The Mets have some solid prospects but are far from a team that should be cavalier with high draft choices.
You don’t have to “agree” – it is an economic fact. The marginal utility of gaining an additional prospect in a loaded system is less than for a team with fewer prospects. Also, Alderson has shown he can trade for high end talent – the Mets didn’t draft Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Herrera, Black, or Syndergaard.
Cuddyer is an absolute class act and a great asset to any organization. I hope he continues to play well with the Mets, and I like the message that the signing conveys to the fans.
However, it should be noted that he’s moving from the #1 hitters park to the #3 pitchers park, according to ESPN’s Park Factors – 2014.
Time will tell, but I think it’s safe to assume that he won’t be a part of the batting title picture during his time at Citi Field.
I was kind of disappointed he was given a QO. Thought there was a strong possibility of a reunion of the Twins but I also might have underestimated his market. Hopefully he does well with the Mets, but you’re right, difficult to imagine him producing the same numbers in Citi Field.
There was a pretty good article today by Tony Blengino over at fangraphs that talked about Cuddyer’s power alley being favorable at Citi, the LCF gap. I do remember watching him at the Derby in ’13, too. He drove everything out towards left and leftcenter. If Cuddyer can take advantage of his strengths, he may still hit well.
I think he’ll hit well, but more along the lines of what he did with the Twins rather than the Rockies. That’s still plenty good.
No one expects him to have raw numbers that he did as a Rockie, including the Mets.
Citi was 28th in park factor for runs, but 18th in park factor for HRs (also, 10th in 2013 and 12th in 2012).
So it’s a pretty good place to hit HRs (especially for RHBs), despite being a pitchers’ park overall.
No commenters have brought up what this looks like from Cuddyer’s perspective. They’ve talked about what the result is to Colorado and what the result is to the Mets.
But for Cuddyer?
This seems a bit silly. He turned down 1 year and $15.3 million in the best hitters park in baseball in favor of 2 years and $21 million in the 3rd worst?!? He doesn’t think he can beat a $5.7 million contract after this year while rolling up stats in Coors again?!?
This is insane.
What else had to go into this decision to make this make sense for Cuddyer to do?
An Agent, he’ll be playing at age 36 next year. Anything can happen, more years and more money make sense to me.
I’d accept all of the non-money reasons as answers. The money doesn’t make any sense.
Not wanting to play in Colorado? Just because it’s a good hitter’s park, doesn’t mean he liked Denver, the elevation, the legalization of marijuana, the organization, etc. He didn’t have an avenue to guaranteed playing time in the Colorado outfield or at first base, while he’s essentially a sure thing for a Met COF position next year. If he had a contract in place elsewhere giving him at minimum the amount of money of the QO, it’s certainly not a bad decision to take it. He’s at that age where he’s pocketed a ton of money and may want to dictate *where* he plays. Plus, yknow, David Wright is a good friend of his.
Why the hell would he leave Denver over marijuana? Non-sequitur
He said today he wanted to be closer to home on the east coast. Also spoke of being friends with Wright since they were kids, so I’m sure that’s kind of cool for them. He also probably thought the Mets were ahead of the Rockies and could contend fairly quickly which a lot of (smart) people in baseball believe.
Where do you get the stat that Citi Field is the 3rd worst park for hitters?
From the time Cuddyer received the offer I have asked (myself and others) if the Rockies offered him at 2/20 for Cecchini would you do the deal?
Its a moot point because if the Rockies had signed Cuddyer he would have been ineligible for trade until June. Also why would Boston want Cuddyer?
Unless he waived the right.
But it was more about comparable compensation of the 15th pick, which historically has been either a “high floor” guy or high reward athlete. Granted Cecchini will be able to contribute to a major league roster in a shorter timeframe
The Rockies did not receive the 15th overall pick when Cuddyer signed with the Mets, the Mets forfeit the 15th overall pick and the Rockies received a sandwich pick between the first and second round.
So the team that held the 16th pick actually receives draft compensation inadvertently?
Yep, everyone below #15 jumped up 1 pick.
That could actually be fairly significant as the 1st round plays out. Beyond the first 5 or so there always seems to be jostling for a pick. Of course, it only means something if you draft well and get lucky.
Asst to the Rockies gm told me one day that the draft is a game of chance. He was referring to Trout as we watched him. No slight to the Angels…but even they had no idea what they were getting.
Jostling for a pick? You can’t trade your draft picks. The only picks that can be traded are Competitive Balance picks.
I was trying to indicate that those picks are not nearly as locked in as the top picks. Having a 15 pick over 16 might allow a team the player they truly want.
That still doesn’t help me understand what, “Beyond the first 5 or so there always seems to be jostling for a pick” means.
Jostle means, “struggle or compete forcefully for” and that’s not what happens. Teams wait until it’s their pick, and then they take the player they want with that pick. And they do that regardless of where that pick falls. There is no competition for anything.
I mean that at some point…after the 5-10 pick…the picks are generally less solidly defined. I realize what jostle means in the straight definition… Maybe I mean it more internally within an organization. Certainly being 15 over 16 would help if you consider a tightening talent pool.
I think it is jostling a bit toward the end of the round…teams risking a pick and gambling another team doesn’t take a player and they can take them in the sandwich round or second round
I believe there has been competition for picks. Teams do talk and many times know how highly other teams regard a player. It might make a team take a player because they realize he won’t be on the board next time around. Generally the first round seems to be fairly set…but this plays in in later rounds.
I didn’t think the QO to Cuddyer was that shocking, especially for a team willing to listen and potentially move CarGo.
Interesting move by Cuddyer. Almost definitely didn’t maximize his earning potential here, but there’s nothing wrong with that. I’d love to hear what his plan after turning down the QO was. Did he want the Mets specifically? Just want out of Colorado? Best offer he could get as quickly as he could get it?
He does have some chronic health issues…maybe he took the years over the money. And truthfully… He might be worth the qo in 2015 and only the $5m in 2016. Two at $30m would have been blind faith.
Security because of health concerns is a good one. Even if I think he could’ve made $6-ish million after another injured season, I’m sure not having to worry about getting another contract next offseason is worth something.
Moving family/ children around..etc probably isn’t something to look forward to either. Add that the Rockies likely aren’t postseason bound next season…and the decision is making itself. I wouldn’t necessarily write it up as a slight on Colorado. He got a good deal likely from a team he wanted…he certainly didn’t window shop long.
He didn’t turn down the QO and then sign — the QO was still on the table when he signed.
Very smart deal for Cuddyer…any indication that the Mets deal was falling through and he had until 4et to accept the qo…which it sounds like he would have. Same effect for the Rockies…because it works the same as a rejected qo
I didn’t think this was a great move, but after thinking about it I have changed my mind. The Mets window is the next few years, this move says they are going for it, and allows them to hold on to their trade chips to land a shortstop. The pick they gave up won’t be able to help in the current window, so why not spend it on something that can.
If they truly mean to be aggressive in the FA market, Cuddyer won’t be the last compensation FA they sign. Thus in effect, he costs just their second round pick. That has some value, but not terribly much.
Except that there are only a few QO players on the market, and most don’t make sense for the Mets. I can’t see them spending 9 figures on Hanley Ramirez, where a long term deal would mean committing to have him at SS for about 5 years.
About a dozen, no? Including most of the better FA?
If the Mets don’t get any of those, I can’t see the addition of Cuddyer making much of a difference in their performance. He is a good player, but not really a game-changer.
Once you already have a good farm system, the relative value of each additional prospect decreases.
Anyone following the Mets gets why this makes sense. Cuddyer is everything the Mets needed, a 1B platoon option for Lucas Duda at 1B. A corner OF solution they desperately need, and insurance for David Wright if his shoulder isn’t 100% to start the year. The money and years are reasonable, the Mets just need a guy to pair with Lagares and Granderson in the OF until former 1st round picks Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are ready, which should be sometime in 2016.
So they lost a draft pick, they have a top 5 farm system in all of baseball. They still have a loaded pitching staff they can deal for a SS. His age and injury history are a risk, but what was a better option in free agency in the Mets budget? There wasn’t one. Great signing.
Well put
The value of the pick is not a standard thing for each team. As a Cardinals fan once Cuddyer got tagged that was it for me and I believe Mozeliak as well. The Cardinals have done well recently with first round picks. Have the Mets? I dont believe they have. Also if the Mets sign another guy with the tag the value they lost also goes down. Lot of variables here. In the end I like the deal for the Mets because the deal was only 21 million for 2 years.
The Cardinals have done well recently with first round picks. Have the Mets? I dont believe they have.
It’s hard to say-they’ve taken a lot of upside players out of high school. Of their last five picks, I can tell you that Harvey worked out well; Nimmo is a top 50 MLB prospect; Cecchini is on the outskirts of the Mets’ top 10; and Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto are also top 100. It may be another couple of years before we see some of these players as big league regulars.
I’ve wanted the Mets to get Cuddyer for so long that I initially hoped they would get him in the Rick Reed trade (it turned out to be Matt Lawton).
The money… the timing… the teams… it looks like the Mets and Rockies found a way to trade a first round pick with Cuddyer picking up a few dollars for the favor. I think you’ll see Tulowitzki or Gonzalez moved to New York next… and the Mets will have “underpaid” for one or both.
woah woah woah. they -do- really need a shortstop. You may be on to something here if tulo does in fact get traded to the Mets! Then I’d be suspicious!
It’s an ok signing for the Mets but they need at least a veteran shortstop
I’m not sure they do. There’s almost nobody out there expected to be better than Flores. Tulo would be nice. So would Castro. But both of those look unlikely.
Ruben tedjada is a good shortstop but not the best
Hilarious sportsese. Who is the recipient of this “message,” exactly? What is the benefit of being “aggressive,” and of being aggressive “right out of the box”?
Fangraphs Steamer projection has Cuddyer a hair better than den Dekker over two years, but at a cost of around $20m more plus the $10m or so the Mets #15 draft pick was worth.
This reminds me of the offseason when Alderson mailed it in by throwing a batch of relievers at the roster. What a junk signing this is. It reeks of Jeffy Wilpon. Cuddyer’s a “name,” a guy who used to be good.
I have been a Mets fan since the early 70’s …. Please tell me when we have ever had success signing an aging power hitter … especially after last years great success signing Granderson …This guy is a bust before he sees his first pitch at Citi Field … I’ll also bet this year’s 15th pick is named Babe Ruth.
I’ll be willing to bet this year’s 15th pick isn’t named Babe Ruth.
He’s a line drive hitter, not a power hitter.
Carlos Delgado(trade)
Carlos Beltran(wasn’t that aging but still)
Scott Hairston… Moises Alou… Fernando Tatis… Gary Sheffield… Shawn Green.
Scott Hairston played well here in NY.
All of them did. The guy asked for “when we have ever had success signing an aging power hitter …” so I listed a bunch of them.