The Giants and Red Sox have been rumored to be the main suitors for Pablo Sandoval all offseason, and the switch-hitting third basemen has discussed a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range with each club, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Crasnick adds that things could come together quickly for Sandoval, and says that Boston is a serious player for his services.
Sandoval is known to be in Boston right now and met with the Sox yesterday in addition to having a second meeting scheduled for today (as Tim Dierkes tweeted this morning). The Padres are also said to have expressed recent interest, but some expected suitors such as the Yankees, Marlins and Blue Jays have shown limited interest at best.
Five years is a significant offer, of course, but agent Gustavo Vasquez had no issue in telling the media that he was seeking a six-year pact for his client and cared more about the length of the deal than securing a gaudy average annual value. Tim penned a Free Agent Profile for Sandoval just yesterday, pegging him for that six-year term when all is said and done.
Red Sox seem more willing to outbid the Giants for Sandoval then outbidding the Yankees for Headley.
Sandoval is a better hitter and he’s much more marketable. They could probably make the money back in hats alone.
He plays deceptively solid defense, as well.
Kung-Fu makes one very agile.
You know what? In 2013 he certainly did not. He was not in shape, he couldn’t leg out a double, and he couldn’t defend well. His stats are actually helped because Bochy pulled him for Arias in the late innings, his bat was horrible for the first half of 2013 and he missed out on his last at-bat for counting stats by being pulled late. Pablo was a mess defensively in 2013. He could be a mess again very easily.
ehh. I’d rather have Headley. He gets on base more often, and plays better defense.
.347 OBP lifetime for Headley .346 lifetime OBP for Sandoval. Not really much of a difference there.
I like the bling on the Panda too. Everyone likes a winner.
I’d frankly take either, but the bling certainly adds a nice dimension to the package. Gotta like guys that are used to winning it all.
True but a $50-$60 million contract is a lot less than a $110-$120 million contract for almost equal value. Headley is ahead in both rWAR and fWAR the past 3 years
Complete guess on my part about $50-$60 million for Headley but most are predicting that’s what he will get. I won’t be surprised to see a team randomly give him $70-$80 million now though with the contracts Martin and V-Mart got…..oh yeah Stanton too.
I know, the three year lookback. I like a larger picture that doesn’t include statistical anomalies like Headley’s 2012 so highly weighted. They’re talking 80-90 for Sandoval vs 50-60 for Headley so that point of 110-120 doesn’t really stand. They will probably end up with simialar AAV. And Sandoval is also going into his age 28 season whereas Headley will be 31 next year. I’d personally take either, and I don’t really see that much of a difference. Each player has a different skill set, but their value to a team would pretty much be the same.
80-90 for 5 years. It’ll probably go to 6 years, though, which would bring the dollar value closer to 110-120.
Then you don’t do the deal. They made a fair offer, if he chooses to go back to San Fran you shake hands and congratulate him, and then move on to plan b.
With that attitude, you’ll be left with plan D. Or worse, Will Middlebrooks!
Anyway, I just think who ever signs him will have to go to 6 years.
No with that attitude you won’t get stuck paying way over market value for a player with conditioning issues. So go after Headley and promise him he’ll be the starting third baseman, and he’ll be pencilled in for at least 150 games. There is more to offer than just money. And if you’ve already beat the monetary offer of another club, and the player still says no, there isn’t much you can do that won’t hurt you in the long run. Headley signs somewhere else you make a trade. Sandoval and Headley aren’t the only options.
“Headley is ahead in both rWAR and fWAR the past 3 years”
Make sure you use 3 years (due to 2012 monster season for Headley), because at one year, two years and four years Sandoval has better numbers.
No, he’s not.
2014: Headley, 4.4 fWAR. Sandoval, 3.0 fWAR.
2013-2014: Headley, 8.0 fWAR. Sandoval, 5.3 fWAR.
2012-2014: Headley, 15.2 fWAR. Sandoval, 7.9 fWAR.
2011-2014: Headley, 17.5 fWAR. Sandoval, 13.4 fWAR.
2010-2014: Headley, 21.9 fWAR. Sandoval, 14.8 fWAR.
2009-2014: Headley, 23.1 fWAR. Sandoval, 19.9 fWAR.
2013: Headley, 3.6 fWAR. Sandoval, 2.3 fWAR.
2012: Headley, 7.2 fWAR. Sandoval, 2.6 fWAR.
2011: Headley, 2.3 fWAR. Sandoval, 5.5 fWAR.
2010: Headley, 4.4 fWAR. Sandoval, 1.4 fWAR.
2009: Headley, 1.2 fWAR. Sandoval, 5.1 fWAR.
Headley loses to Sandoval in exactly two of these years, and no n-year time period that includes 2014.
Headley’s career OBP is .347 and Pablo’s is .346. I’m not so sure that 0.1% difference is all that significant.
Headley’s road OBP – ignoring, yknow, Petco – jumps up to .359, which isn’t insignificant.
I’d love to see how Headley’s career .285/.359/.440 road line plays at Fenway, personally. Until the second half of 2014 he always had a very poor park for hitters as his home park. As a switch hitter, he’d be able to take advantage of that short right field corner, the Green Monster, and really hit well, I think. I’d be very excited if Headley went to Boston. I like the Red Sox, and Headley’s a favorite of mine.
I’ve heard Red Sox have reached out to Headley, but he shown little interest outside of signing with Yankees.
Headley is better.
In 2012 he was…
And in 2013. And in 2014.
Stretching the truth is one thing. Lying is another.
Sandoval – 2.6, 2.3, 3.0 WAR past three seasons.
Headley – 7.2, 3.6, 4.4 WAR past three seasons.
2012 – World Series Champion.
2014 – World Series Champion.
Not the only reason they won, but still has three rings over zero.
“2012 – World Series Champion.
2014 – World Series Champion.”
So by this theory, Lincecum > Kershaw
If Lincecum was still himself, yes. Pablo isn’t hurt or in decline (yet).
Lincecum at his best was not better than Kershaw lol
Debatable.
Playoff ERA of 2.40 or playoff ERA of 5.12?
Playoff record of 5-2 or 1-5?
Three time Champ or just lots of money?
Are you seriously bringing up rings?
Quality rebuttle on what is a Player A vs Player B discussion.
I like how you left out 2010, where Sandoval wasn’t even good enough to play that October. Stretching the truth yourself, eh?
We were comparing 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2010 is not in that span last I checked…
“still has three rings over zero”
This statement is correct.
And also includes his 2010 title. Hence, 2010. You can’t choose your cake and eat it to. Either don’t mention the third ring because it’s not in the 2012-2014 title or mention how much of a nonfactor he was for that ring when you discuss how important he was for 2012 and 2014.
His 2010 and 2014 look pretty similar to me. Granted, he was more in the postseason this year than 2010. I guess I’ll compare the players on a whole:
zero rings/.265avg/.347obp and 30 years old OR
three rings/.294avg/.346obp and 28 years old
One player will be getting more money than the other for a reason. Whatever that reason is, you decide.
Popular, if unsupported, opinion. I don’t care about the .265 vs. .294 part, and the OBP comparison is roughly equal. I’d say they will similar AAV, but Sandoval gets more years. I’d prefer Headley, all things equal, though.
Sandoval’s 2010 and 2014 are not very similar. 96 wRC+ in 2010, 111 wRC+ in 2014. In 2010, Sandoval was good in April and August (175 and 142 wRC+) and was not good in May, June, July, and September (63, 75, 63, 58 wRC+) and was thusly benched in the playoffs. In the 2010 playoffs, Stanton got 19 PA with two 1B, one 2B, and two BB for a .176/.263/.235 batting line before not playing.
Panda > Trout then?
Didn’t know Trout played 3B now.
They don’t play the same position, have had different career lengths, and one has next to zero postseason experience.
Trout has a career postseason batting average of .083. I’ll get back to you in a couple years because one good playoff run could change that.
It’s funny how every one of these discussions have a three year lookback period so Headley fans can get those 2012 stats in there. I have dropped each players first season. 23.5 fWAR in 7 seasons for Headley= 3.36/season. 19.9 in six seasons = 3.32 fWAR for Sandoval. They are very similarly valued players.
And they won’t be get similar contracts. Headley will cost less. Which is why people prefer Headley.
Question: how does a difference of 3.6 fWAR over a six year term (0.6 fWAR per year) translate to a difference of .04 fWAR per year? Your math seems off. 23.5 fWAR for Headley would be much closer to 4 fWAR per year, and drastically changed the perception.
Headley has played 7 years and Sandoval only 6. Oops. My bad, I’ll edit.
Stop using numbers to prove your point.
EDIT: Sorry, I actually have to note this is sarcasm…
Yes, this is a baseball website discussing dollar figures and we aren’t supposed to use math for estimating how much in millions a player deserves. Sounds legit.
Meh, sarcasm was evident in the post.
You could look back 1, 2 or 3 years…. in every case, Headley is better.
Or you could look back 4, 5 or 6 years too and properly weight each time period.
2012, 13, and 14 are a lot more relevant than 09,10, and 11
Great, let’s do their whole careers and throw out the top and bottom numbers as outliers then. 33% of Headley’s stats coming from 2012 is just not reasonable in assessing his actual value.
The point is everyone that likes Headley goes with 3 years and claims it will take up to 120mil to sign Panda. No way he gets 120 mil.
This very site you’re on pegged Sandoval for 6/114 and Headley for 4/50.
Over their entire careers, Sandoval has 20.9 fWAR in 3533 PA, or 3.54 fWAR per 600 PA and Headley has 23.3 fWAR in 3944 PA, or 3.54 fWAR per 600 PA. Since 2009 when both have been full-time players, Headley has 23.1 fWAR in 3555 PA, for 3.898 fWAR per 600 PA. Sandoval has 19.9 fWAR in 3379 PA, for 3.53 fWAR per 600 PA. I’d prefer Headley – and not based off this exercise alone – but yeah, using both since they’ve been full-time players since 2009 is a better exercise, IMO. Headley is clearly not the same player he was in 2008 when he had ~370 PA and just 0.4 fWAR.
I noticed the same trend Victoria.
Teams and annalists are really starting to question defensive stats especially on the extreme high end, which is exactly where Headley derives most of his WAR from.
Sandoval- 118, 116, 111 wRC+
Headly- 145, 114, 103 wRC+
Are they similar players, yes; but I would not go so far as to say “Headley is better” just by looking at his fWAR.
Teams? How do you know teams are questioning them? Defensive performance varies. So does offensive performance. Headley rates well per all of the defensive metrics, per year and for his entire career. “Analysts” often diss defensive stats to explain discrepancies they’d rather not take at face value. There’s almost no merit to that.
You can tell team question WAR and other sabermetric analysis because they aren’t handing out contracts based on WAR/$ arguments. Teams still pay a higher premium for offense than they do for defense.
That doesn’t mean they don’t value it. You’re still looking for the best deals possible. Teams may just be targeting traditionally players to acquire better returns on investment. I honestly think you’re way off base on how teams are analyzing players. Except perhaps PHI, I feel every single front office looks at their own modified version of sabermetrics. Well-hit balls, exit velocity, exit angel for hitters, the technology being utilized by MLB to track fielders, etc. I think they are even more advanced with sabermetrics than public websites and are even better. I think it’s naive to believe even a single FO doesn’t look at sabermetrics.
They don’t question WAR, they just don’t use it. Teams are trying to pay for future performance, not past performance. Every team has their own system for evaluating players and are making offers based on their metrics, not Fangraphs or Baseball Reference.
Is it really teams and analysts doing that or is it fans? (not saying you’re wrong, just a simple question)
To see evidence of annalists questioning it read read 8/22/14 “Defensive Metrics, Their Flaws, and the Language of Writers,” 8/17/14 “So Let’s Talk About Alex Gordon” and 11/18/14 “Why Isn’t Jason Heyward a Center Fielder?” on FG’s
I infer that teams question WAR and other sabermetric analysis because they aren’t handing out contracts based on WAR/$ arguments.
The latter article, which I just read, does not support your point. At all… That was not the point whatsoever.
It states my point very clearly in the second paragraph when it says “Those in the know recognize that their high advanced stat scores are relative to their peers, so a collection of bad outfielders can help prop up a good corner OF glove.”
Headley’s a tremendous fielder, and a deceptively good hitter considering his home ballpark. I’d take Headley over Sandoval for the next five years in a heartbeat.
5 and 80-90 is better than I was expecting.
I would be okay with 5 years 80-90.
I’d be shocked if he didn’t get 9 figures. Same for Hanley wherever he goes.
Hanley is a much better player. Particularly if you can get him to agree to play third base and occasionally DH. He’s pretty much a 5 fWAR player if you take shortstop out of the mix.
He needs to accept and sign for that though. As long as the Giants and Red Sox both hold firm, yes it’s a better deal.
16-18 AAV. That sounds like a fair offer that isn’t going to cripple either team. Although all things being equal, I can’t see him leaving the Giants unless the Red Sox offered the 90 and the Giants offered the 80.
I can’t see Panda leave SF for 10 MM dollars more. Red Sox will have to add a sixth year or go to 100 MM over 5 years.
Then they won’t sign him. He’s not the only option. The only way this deal gets done to my mind is if it is for the very reasonable terms discussed above. There are other fish in the sea.
No argument here. I just think the Red Sox will have to put significantly more money on the table to overcome 3 WS rings in 5 years.
I think 10 million is a fairly significant amount. If it takes more than that you move on. You outbid the other team. You can’t offer that much more than market value. It doesn’t make sense, particularly with a player with conditioning issues.
Unfortunately, I think Hanley is Plan B. Boy do I hope I’m wrong on that though.
I doubt it. I would think Headley would be plan B, followed by a trade as plan C and Hanley pulling up the rear as plan d. Unless he suddenly learns how to hit left handed.
I’d like to think that if the offers are very close to each other that he’ll go back to SF. Obviously Boston is capable of outbidding, but the Giants usually show that they’re willing to keep their guys.
I’m hoping Boston strikes out this winter. I’m tired of everyone expecting the best players will automatically go to Boston or NY.
Most teams have money to spend so it’s not like Boston has a real advantage. What I don’t get is why people thing Boston is a better choice when they lost 91 games last year and traded away their best pitcher last year. It’s going to take 3 quality FAs or traded to make Boston a contender and there are 30 other teams with just as much money or prospects that could make acquiring 3 pieces a big challenge. It just may make getting that first piece a tough fit, too.
Just like that rebuild after 2012 was tough. It took them forever to win another World Series. Oh wait…
Someone is bitter
Yea its not like they’ve won a world series recently…
Cmon lock him up before he leaves town!!!
The reason why I stated “Headley is better”:
1. On average, over the course of the next 5 years, I believe that Headley at 3rd base can get to one extra ball every 5 games, that Panda would not have been able to get to.
2. If Headley, instead, got one extra hit every 5 games (20 ABs), his batting average would increase from .243 to .293. If Headley were an average fielder (like Panda) and hit .293, he would have higher value than Panda right now.
No need to conduct elaborate WAR based arguments. Just ask yourself whether Headley can get to just one ball every five games that Panda would miss.