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2015-16 International Prospects

International Notes: Rankings, Spending, Alvarez, Guerrero

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The 2015-16 international signing period kicks off in six days (July 2), which will lead to significant spending from clubs all around the league in an effort to bolster their farm system. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels and Diamondbacks will each be ineligible to sign a player for more than $300K due to vastly overshooting their league-assigned international bonus pools in the 2014-15 signing period. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Rangers will be back in the game after being similarly restricted in the 2014-15 period due to excessive spending in 2013-14. Both teams are expected to again be aggressive, though it’s the Dodgers who are rumored to be the most aggressive team on this year’s international market. Here are some notes on this year’s class of July 2 players…

  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has released an excellent sortable prospect board with scouting reports, video, projected bonus information and the likeliest landing spot, with information on 69 different international prospects (not all info available for all prospects). McDaniel currently projects the Dodgers to spend $27.05MM on the international market, though that number could grow, as it’s not clear where every prospect is going to land yet. That $27.05MM figure, by the way, comes out to more than $50MM after factoring in the 100% luxury tax they’ll pay for exceeding their $2,020,300 pool by more than 15 percent (pool info via Baseball America).
  • In addition to the Dodgers and Cubs, the Royals are expected to blow past their international spending limit as well, writes McDaniel in a separate piece. No one figures to match the Dodgers, though, who are “so recklessly signing whichever player they want for whatever number it takes that teams are openly wondering what top Cuban player they won’t sign during this period,” McDaniel notes. It’s currently tough to peg the market for top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, but the Dodgers should be considered the favorite for all Cuban players due to their hyper-aggressive approach, McDaniel adds. He also looks ahead to the 2016-17 market, touching on top names such as Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler spoke to six scouts about top international prospects Yadier Alvarez (link) and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (link). Alvarez’s name has been on the pages of MLBTR for months, as the Cuban righty is said to be the top international pitching prospect on the market thanks to a fastball that reaches 98 mph and the makings of a wipeout slider and an above-average changeup. Badler looks at his sudden emergence from obscurity and gets the takes of scouts who praise him, but also those who view him as a future reliever. As for Guerrero, scouts feel that he has the best combination of hitting ability and power in this year’s class, but he’s already a thick player with a so-so arm, leading to questions about his defensive placement down the line. Alvarez is believed to have a bonus of $16MM+ waiting from the Dodgers, whereas the Blue Jays have long been believed to have a deal with Guerrero (McDaniel pegs the value at $3.45MM).

International Notes: Mayeux, Diaz, Heredia

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Melissa Mayeux, a 16-year-old French shortstop, has become the first known female to be added to Major League Baseball’s international prospect registration list, writes MLB.com’s Lindsay Berra. That would make Mayeux, who plays for the U-18 French junior national team, eligible to sign with a Major League club on July 2. As Berra goes on to explain, only players that at least have a chance to be signed by a Major League team are typically registered. It still seems unlikely that Mayeux will be signed, Berra continues. European prospects typically sign at the age of 18, as opposed to 16, as is often the case with Latin American prospects. Mayeux tells Berra that she’s not focusing on being the first female added to the registration list and simply hopes to be able to play baseball for as long as possible. MLB director of international game development Mike McClellan calls Mayeux a “legitimate shortstop,” praising her fielding ability and adding that she “swings the bat really well and is fearless.”

A few more notes from the international prospect scene…

  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports that Cuban outfielder Yusnier Diaz has also registered with MLB and will be eligible to sign in the upcoming signing period (Twitter link). The 18-year-old Diaz will first need to be declared a free agent by the league before he can sign, however. Ben Badler of Baseball America reported in April that Diaz had left Cuba, though at the time there seemed to be a chance that Diaz would be ineligible for the upcoming signing period. That no longer appears to be the case. Badler praised Diaz’s plus speed and plus arm, though he also noted that his right-handed swing is a bit long at times.
  • Speaking of Badler, his latest piece examines top international prospect Starling Heredia’s unusual baseball career (subscription required and recommended). The Dominican outfielder never even played in an organized baseball game until he was 13 years old, Badler writes. Heredia tells Badler that his coaches originally wanted him to be a third baseman, but he was unimpressive there and garnered little attention until he homered on the first swing he took. Heredia was converted to an outfielder and he’s grown at a surprising rate, as he’s already said to be 6’1″ and 215 pounds. Badler spoke to multiple scouts who praised Heredia’s bat speed, running speed and strong arm, but there’s some question about he’ll handle more advanced pitching. Badler notes that the Dodgers are the favorites to sign Heredia, who could receive a bonus in excess of $2MM.

Prospect Notes: Van Steensel, Bonuses, Ortiz

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Twins relief prospect Todd Van Steensel provides a fascinating look at his finances in an article by MiLB.com’s Ashley Marshall. Most minor leaguers make very little money, and Van Steensel demonstrates what that means in practical terms. He’s had to borrow to pay rent, and he sometimes saves money by taking clubhouse leftovers home. “When the season started, I had $50 in my checking account and then waited 10 days for my first paycheck,” says Van Steensel. “I don’t have enough money for a savings account because I try to save money for emergencies like rent.” Here are more notes on prospects.

  • At least Van Steensel has been able to lean somewhat on the $60K bonus he received upon signing in 2008, however. Not all minor leaguers have that luxury, and that includes most players drafted as college seniors, since that group of players has little leverage to negotiate bonuses. Former NC State infielder Logan Ratledge, who recently signed with the Pirates, describes his frustrating negotiating process to Baseball America’s John Manuel. Twice, a team asked Ratledge if he would sign for $100K if they drafted him in the early rounds. Both times he said yes, but the team drafted other players instead. Later, a different team offered him a $20K bonus, but a third team promised Ratledge $100K if he told other teams not to draft him on Day 2, so Ratledge told the team offering $20K that he would have to pass. The team offering $100K didn’t follow through on its offer, though, and finally the Pirates drafted Ratledge in the 13th round. He signed for $5K.
  • Jhailyn Ortiz is one of the top Dominican outfielders available in the international signing season that begins July 2, BA’s Ben Badler writes (subscription required). Ortiz is likely to get a bonus of around $4MM, with the Phillies possibly being among the bidding teams. Given his size, though — he weighs 260 pounds at age 16 — he appears likely to move to first base. He has terrific power, but there are enough questions about his ability to make contact that he isn’t on par with a top international prospect like 2014 Brewers signee Gilbert Lara. “I’ll take Gilbert Lara every day over Jhailyn Ortiz,” says an international director. “He’s a for sure right-right first baseman who was not close to anything with spin. I know he has raw power, but Lara is a better hitter with more power.”

International Notes: Market, Martinez, Venezuela

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The international market continues to be a fairly inefficient arena despite advances in overall talent evaluation resources, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. An advancing timeline for reaching verbal agreement with July 2 prospects has exacerbated the difficulties of scouting young, swiftly changing players, says Badler. Generally, uncertainty and market manipulation are prevalent, creating an environment in which bonuses do not always match talent.

Here’s more from the international scene:

  • The Yankees “made a run” at signing MLB.com’s top-rated international prospect, Eddy Julio Martinez, before the close of the 2014-15 July 2 period, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. A deal did not get done, however, meaning that Martinez will sign elsewhere at some point after July 2 (when the new year’s market open). New York is now just starting out on a two-year ban on international bonuses of over $300K.
  • Broader difficulties are even greater in Venezuela, writes Badler, citing one scout who says “this is as bad as it’s been” to evaluate young players there. But the same large-scale economic issues that have crippled the country and had a trickle-down effect on the baseball industry have also created shifting incentives for ballplaying youngsters. Badler explains that, even as less resources and money have reached Venezuela, there is an increasing trend of teenagers devoting more time to baseball development in hopes of earning a chance at a contract, thereby sacrificing time that might have gone toward other pursuits. That has led to a bump in the overall talent level coming up, though of course it is probably not a positive indicator for the country’s young people.
  • Badler also provides a preview of the best prospects coming up on the July 2 market out of Venezuela. The Rockies are “strong favorites” to sign outfielder Daniel Montano, who is expected to receive the largest bonus from the country (perhaps over $2MM). And the Rangers appear to have the inside track on another well-regarded outfielder, Miguel Aparicio, at a lower price tag.
  • There’s plenty more to learn from the Badler pieces cited above, and you’ll want to give them a full read for all of the details.

Randy Arozarena Leaves Cuba

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Cuban infielder/outfielder Randy Arozarena, a 20-year-old prospect, has left the island with intentions of coming to Major League Baseball, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. He joins a growing stream of interesting Cuban players at various stages of qualifying for free agency.

Badler and BA tabbed Arozarena as the nation’s ninth-best prospect recently, calling him “a quick-twitch athlete with a lean, lively frame.” With good overall hitting ability and plus speed, Arozarena probably will not need to provide much power to have value. But the scouting report — which you’ll want to check out for a full breakdown (subscription required, and recommended) — indicates that the line-drive hitter could conceivably produce double-digit home runs with some adjustments and growth.

It remains to be seen where clubs will view him defensively: he’s spent time in center and left field after starting out as a middle infielder and also seeing action at third. The tools are there for him to play a premium defensive position down the line, says Badler, though it seems that there’s plenty of development left for him in that regard.

Arozarena will be subject to international spending limits when he signs. Given his profile it’s a good bet that he’ll go to a team that is willing to incur a two-year timeout to add him (likely, in conjunction with other significant outlays).

It’s obviously far to soon to guess as to Arozarena’s market, not least of which because he is just beginning an often-lengthy process of establishing residency and attaining free-agent status. But it is safe to say that those teams that are already set to face bans on pool-bound international signings over $300K (Angels, D’Backs, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees) will almost certainly be out of the race.

Andy Ibanez Changes Representation

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Cuban second baseman Andy Ibanez, who has unexpectedly languished on the market despite being declared a free agent months ago, has changed agents, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. He’ll move from Bart Hernandez and Praver/Shapiro to Relativity Baseball.

The 22-year-old appeared to be preparing to sign earlier in the spring, but with his change of agencies it’s now unclear when that might happen. As Badler notes, there seems to be a reasonable likelihood that he’ll ultimately wait until the calendar flips to a new July 2 period, when a new slate of clubs will pull the trigger on spending cap-busting bonuses. (Ibanez is subject to international bonus pools.)

As Badler writes, Ibanez is a well-known and well-regarded prospect. While he does not have any particularly flashy aspects to his game, he’s regarded as a sturdy ballplayer across the board. Badler rates him above fellow young infielder Roberto Baldoquin, who got $8MM from the Angels, but notes that he could nevertheless fall shy of that mark.

Twins Notes: Hunter, Garcia, Radcliff

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Few expected the Twins to be in contention this season, yet after today’s 6-5 win over the Blue Jays, Minnesota (30-19) now owns the best record in the American League.  The Twins have been boosted by a 20-7 record in May, the first time the club has won 20 games in a single month since June 1991.  Here’s some more from the Gopher State, courtesy of 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (all Twitter links)…

  • There has been “no movement” between Torii Hunter and the Twins on a contract extension, though Wolfson guesses a deal will come at some point during the season.  Hunter signed a one-year, $10.5MM deal with Minnesota last winter and has openly discussed both how he wants to eventually work in the Twins’ front office and how he’s undecided about playing in 2016.  If performance is a factor, Hunter has been playing well, hitting .280/.332/.458 through his first 184 plate appearances.  I would wonder if an extension would even be necessary this early, since as Wolfson notes, it’s “not like he’s going anywhere.”
  • The Twins were one of the 20 teams who attended Cuban infielder/outfielder Yosvani Garcia’s showcase earlier this week.
  • Garcia isn’t subject to the international bonus pools, yet the Twins also have great interest in the 2015-16 international free agent market, as team VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff tells Wolfson that the new class of July 2 international players is “one of the best we’ve ever seen.”  The Twins are prepared to spend up to $4MM on a single player, and Wolfson notes in a follow-up tweet that the player in question is Dominican shortstop Wander Javier.  Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reported in March that the Twins and Javier are “widely believed” to already have an agreement in place once the signing period opens on July 2.  The Twins’ international bonus pool is just over $3.948MM, so if they wanted multiple players, they would have to trade for some extra space (unless they were willing to overspend in this int’l class and be limited to $300K signings in the next two classes).
  • Radcliff also said that Minnesota may sign fewer amateur draft picks than usual, as their “system is pretty full” of players already.  As Wolfson notes, most teams generally sign around 25 of their 40 picks; for comparison’s sake, the Twins signed 30 of their 40 picks in the 2014 amateur draft.

Sanchez’s Latest: Martinez, Fox, Arroyo

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Just over two weeks remain in the current international signing period, which will come to a close on June 15. Following that will be a roughly two-week dead period before July 2 marks the kickoff of the the 2015-16 international prospect signing period. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez recently penned a piece looking at some changes at the top of the international signing class, and he also has a second piece centering around a particularly interesting player in the upcoming June draft. A few highlights…

  • Cuban prospects Eddy Julio Martinez and Yadier Alvarez have vaulted to the top of the upcoming July 2 class of international prospects, joining Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox in Sanchez’s Top 3 prospects. Martinez is technically eligible to sign during the current period, Sanchez notes, though a deal would have to come together quickly in order for that to become a reality. Some scouts have made the lofty comparison of a young Andruw Jones when evaluating the 20-year-old Martinez, according to Sanchez. He lists the Cubs, Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Reds and White Sox as teams that have shown interest in Martinez. It should be noted that the Angels and Yankees would only be able to sign Martinez in the current signing period, as they incurred maximum penalties in 2014-15 for soaring past their allotted bonus pool and will be unable to sign a player for more than $300K. The Cubs, on the other hand, are ineligible to sign him during this period but could do so in the 2015-16 period, as their penalty for exceeding their 2013-14 bonus pool will then have been served. The Dodgers are the favorite to sign Alvarez — Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has previously reported that they’re believed to have an agreement worth as much as $16MM waiting to become official after July 2 — and have been aggressive on the Cuban market, adding Pablo Fernandez and Hector Olivera for a combined sum worth more than $70MM.
  • The Dodgers, Rangers, Reds, and Giants are among the teams most frequently connected to the 18-year-old Fox, Sanchez hears. McDaniel reported a little over a month ago that Fox had been declared a free agent and could sign in the upcoming period, and he’s since noted that the Cubs, Dodgers and Rangers were serious players for Fox. Fox tells Sanchez that he’s added about 15 pounds of muscle in the past year, which he feels has dramatically improved his game since appearing in the Perfect Game and East Coast Pro showcases last year. (Fox attended American Heritage High School in Florida for two years before returning home to the Bahamas and petitioned to be declared an international free agent.)
  • In the second piece linked above, Sanchez looks at the curious case of right-hander Octavio Arroyo, who was expected to be selected out of San Diego’s San Ysidro High School somewhere in rounds 15-20 in the June draft. However, Arroyo was recently deported to Tijuana, as his family incorrectly filled out his paperwork when moving him to the United States to live with his grandparents, both of whom are United States citizens. “The plan was for my grandparents to adopt me and get my paperwork, my residency,” Arroyo told Sanchez. “But I was denied. I don’t know why. I was told we filled out the paperwork wrong. We tried for three years, but I never got it.” Arroyo crossed the U.S./Mexico border multiple times while knowing that his paperwork had been rejected, and he was detained and deported in an attempt this spring. He’s still, however, eligible for the draft, but it’s uncertain whether or not he’ll be granted a work visa by the U.S. government. If no team selects him, Arroyo could sign as an undrafted free agent or sign with a Mexican League club, who could then sell his rights to a Major League team, Sanchez writes.

Alfredo Rodriguez Leaves Cuba To Pursue MLB Deal

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Shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez has departed Cuba with the intent of seeking MLB free agency, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The 21-year-old took home Rookie of the Year honors in the top division Serie Nacional this year, though as Badler notes that was the subject of some disagreement.

As always, you’ll want to read Badler’s piece for a full breakdown, but the takeaway seems to be that Rodriguez is a whiz with the glove with good speed and a suspect bat. Badler labels the youngster as a polished shortstop whose hand and footwork are outstanding, accompanied by good range and a solid arm.

Offensively, though, it appears that Gonzalez has much development ahead of him. He did swipe 12 bags in 16 tries, so there’s a reasonable expectation that he will add value on the bases. But he slashed only .265/.301/.284 in his 304 plate appearances last year, striking out a reasonable 38 times but taking a free pass in only 11 turns at the dish.

Badler goes on to explain how Gonzalez fits within the evolving rules regarding players from Cuba. Teams will have to use their international spending allocation to sign him, though he will not be subject to the league’s registration policy — which can cause a delay, as Badler explained recently — due to his relatively advanced age for an international prospect. All said, Gonzalez should be able to sign as part of this coming summer’s July 2 period, though he will first have to go through the process of establishing residency in a third country.

Right-Hander Norge Ruiz Leaves Cuba, Will Seek Deal With MLB Club

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Cuban right-hander Norge Ruiz has left the island and will seek a contract with a Major League club, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). The 21-year-old Ruiz is one of the top prospects in Cuba, so interest in him would figure to be substantial.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked Ruiz as the No. 8 prospect in Cuba (subscription-only scouting report is highly recommended) less than one month ago, with all seven of the players ranked ahead of him being position players. Ruiz’s age will make him subject to international bonus pools, but as Badler notes in a second piece, he’ll be eligible to sign in the 2015-16 signing period once he establishes residency and applies for free agency with MLB.

That he’s apparently ticketed to sign in the upcoming signing period as opposed to the current period will remove several clubs from the mix. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, D-Backs and Angels have all exceeded their 2014-15 bonus pools by more than 15 percent, meaning none of those teams will be able to sign an international amateur for more than $300K. Given Ruiz’s prospect status, that limitation will assuredly preclude any of the aforementioned clubs from signing him.

In the scouting report referenced above, Badler notes that Ruiz was the 2012-13 Serie Nacional Rookie of the Year in Cuba and writes that he “stands out in a country thin on Major League pitching prospects.” Per Badler, he features a fastball that sits in the low 90s and touches 94 mph, which is complemented by a slider, changeup and splitter. At his best, Ruiz misses bats effectively and keeps the ball on the ground, as evidenced by a 62 percent ground-ball rate in 2014-15, according to Badler. He adds that Ruiz is a very good athlete and has feel for pitching beyond his years, giving him the potential to be a mid-rotation starter in the Majors.

While it’s early to know which teams will pursue Ruiz, it’s believed that the Dodgers are planning to go well over their pool and may already have a significant deal in place with Yadier Alvarez. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add Ruiz as well. The Blue Jays (Vlad Guerrero Jr.), Twins (Wander Javier) and Phillies (Jhailyn Ortiz) may all have deals that would put them at or over their international budgets in place, according to Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel, though each of those clubs would have the ability to acquire enough international bonus money in trades to avoid incurring maximum penalties. (Teams can only acquire up to 50 percent of their originally allotted bonus pool via trade.) Additionally, the Cubs and Rangers will be able to spend aggressively again in the upcoming period and showed a strong willingness to do so in the 2013-14 period.

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