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Tillman, Orioles Mutually Interested In Extension

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Righty Chris Tillman and the Orioles have “mutual interest” in an extension, executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Tillman is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

“There are a few candidates for that,” says Duquette. “We haven’t spent much time on that, but contract discussion is always a good time to explore that.”

Matt Swartz’s model projects Tillman will make $5.4MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. As Swartz notes, that would break Dontrelle Willis’ record (later tied by David Price) for first-time eligible starting pitchers, which has stood at $4.35MM for eight years. Swartz suspects, however, the model’s $5.4MM guess is a bit high.

Still, with a 13-6 record in 2014 (not a particularly important figure analytically, but a consideration in arbitration), a 3.34 ERA and 207 1/3 innings pitched, Tillman can make a very strong arbitration case. Of course, one reason Willis’ mark has stood for so long is because some candidates to break it (such as Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Mat Latos) have signed extensions first. All three of those pitchers initially signed two-year deals. It’s unclear if the Orioles would have interest locking Tillman up long term, or if they would want a shorter deal primarily intended to provide cost certainty for the 26-year-old’s arbitration years. If it’s the latter, Latos’ two-year, $11.5MM deal from before the 2013 season might provide a reasonable starting point for discussions.

Quick Hits: Olivera, Howard, Braves

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Here are a few notes from around the game to round out the evening:

Free Agent Faceoff: Back Of Rotation Starters

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With another quiet day turning into an even less eventful evening, I thought we’d spice things up with a look at a particularly interesting segment of the free agent market: innings-eating veteran starters.

Sure, I’m joking. Almost by definition, a back-of-the-rotation innings eater is not a very exciting pitcher. But, then again, perhaps there is something to the idea that this corner of the universe has more intrigue than it might seem at first glance.

Targeting top-end players is fairly straightforward, whereas figuring whether to pursue one or another back-end arm involves much more careful parsing to find value. The fact that most such pitchers sign for short-term deals means that clubs must be right on the player in the immediate term; there is no time to fix them for the future. And then there is the fact that the performance of these players matters a great deal; unlike a utility man or reliever, innings-eating arms are expected to occupy full-time roles. Racking up losses because your number 4 and 5 starters are not competitive is a great way to dig a hole in the standings.

The potential impact of this type of player is evidenced by the list of the best durable, veteran starters still available, several of whom played for contenders in 2014 and one of whom even pitched in the World Series. For better or worse, all of the players listed were allowed to throw at least 150 innings last year, creating plenty of opportunity to add or subtract value.

Kevin Correia: The results are not usually that exciting, but Correia has logged at least 100 innings in every season since 2007. He delivered an average of 178 innings of 4.19 ERA pitching over 2012-13 before suffering through a rough 2014.

Aaron Harang: Last year’s shining example of the importance of choosing your innings eaters carefully, Harang put up 204 1/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA. Sure, there’s a lot baked in there other than his pitching, but the bottom line is that Harang rated amongst the game’s fifty best starters in terms of preventing runs and among its 25 best in logging innings.

Roberto Hernandez: The results haven’t been there for Hernandez, and there is not much silver lining given that he has seen a steady decline in fastball velocity. But he is quite a steady groundball inducer, and showed enough that the Dodgers traded for him and gave him nine starts down the stretch.

Kyle Kendrick: At some point, 199 innings is 199 innings, and that’s what Kendrick delivered last season. He is also a fairly youthful 30 years of age, and is not far removed from producing serviceable results.

Ryan Vogelsong: Though his peripherals are somewhat less promising, Vogelsong has posted pretty darned useful bottom-line results in three of the past four seasons. And he had enough in the tank to run his fastball up to the mid-90s in the postseason.

Chris Young: ERA estimators view Young’s 3.65 earned run mark last year as a mirage, but then again he has always outperformed his peripherals. It had been quite some time since the towering righty had handled a full season in a rotation, but Seattle happily converted his 165 innings of work into a 12-9 record in 29 starts.

Before you vote on the player you think will be the best bet for 2015, you might want to check out these custom Fangraphs leaderboards for a sense of their recent statistical achievements: last year; last three years; last five years.

Which Innings Eater Would You Rather Sign?
Ryan Vogelsong 36.84% (5,583 votes)
Aaron Harang 24.53% (3,718 votes)
Kyle Kendrick 17.37% (2,632 votes)
Chris Young 15.85% (2,402 votes)
Kevin Correia 3.00% (455 votes)
Roberto Hernandez 2.41% (366 votes)
Total Votes: 15,156

Giants Out On Shields, Scherzer; Pursuing Zobrist

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The Giants are out of the hunt for free agent starter James Shields, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). San Francisco never was in on Max Scherzer, and that remains the case, per the report.

But while an impact free agent arm is not in the offing, the team is still “trying to work a deal” to land outstanding utilityman Ben Zobrist from the Rays. A recent report from Peter Gammons had suggested that match on the veteran, who could potentially plug in at left field for the Giants while serving as a key depth piece throughout the infield. Always a potential piece of trade bait, the pending free agent became a more obvious target when Tampa agreed to terms with Asdrubal Cabrera.

GM Brian Sabean said recently that his organization has limited financial flexibility after re-signing Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo. It appeared at that time that the club would be choosing between a significant addition in the outfield against one in the rotation, and today’s report suggests that San Francisco is perhaps more focused on its lineup.

It would, perhaps, be foolish at this point to rule out entirely the possibility of more aggressive spending given the team’s recent World Series windfall. But the club already appears set to exceed last year’s payroll, and an attempt at two significant additions would bring it well past historical levels, if not even within sight of the luxury tax line.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Maurer, Reds

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It was on this day in 1986 that former White Sox, Indians and St. Louis Browns owner Bill Veeck passed away at the age of 71.  Veeck helped break the American League’s color barrier by signing Larry Doby in 1947 and he was the last owner to bring Cleveland a World Series title, though he is perhaps best remembered today for the wacky promotions he used to draw crowds and entertain fans at the ballpark.  My personal favorite was “Grandstand Managers Night,” when over a thousand St. Louis fans used placards to ’manage’ the Browns to a victory over the A’s (Steve Wulf recently wrote about the promotion for ESPN The Magazine).

Here’s some news from around the league…

  • The Red Sox have made an effort to add more regulars between the prime ages of 26-30 over the last several months, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, as the 2014 team suffered from a mix of too many inexperienced young players and too many 30+ players who had declining seasons.  “There’s no question that finding guys in that age range is appealing,” GM Ben Cherington said. “It’s a safer age range to be in if you’re investing in a player. To be clear, it’s not like we didn’t want that last year. It’s just, what were the alternatives? What were the possibilities? If we could build a team every year full of 26- to 30-year-olds, we would.”
  • The Padres’ acquisition of Brandon Maurer could pay even bigger dividends if the team explores turning Maurer back into a starting pitcher, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes for FOXSports.com.  As Sullivan notes, Maurer is a decent comparable to Tyson Ross, who has enjoyed great success as a starter since coming to San Diego two years ago.
  • In a comparison that surely can’t excite Cincinnati fans, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider-only link) writes that “The Reds…are probably where the Phillies were a year ago, although they could use a decisive determination.”  Reds owner Bob Castellini is too competitive to commit to a brief rebuild, leaving the team in the difficult position of subtracting salaries (like Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) but also adding win-now pieces (like Marlon Byrd) at the same time.
  • Also from Olney, “recent machinations within the Boston organization” seem to be leading to “less influence” for Larry Lucchino, the Red Sox president/CEO.
  • A number of Yankees topics are addressed in a fan mailbag piece by Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog, including a prediction by Axisa that New York will “go hard after Doug Fister” when the righty hits free agency next winter.  Fister was originally drafted by the Yankees in 2005 and he’d require a smaller salary than other impending free agent starters like Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann.
  • Also from Axisa, the Yankees could wait until after 2016 to make another big free agent splurge since the Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran contracts will be off the books.  The Yankees’ strategy seems to be to sign several major players in a single offseason (as they did in 2013-14) to sacrifice only one year’s worth of high draft picks, and going on a spending spree in 2014-15 could result in a payroll in the $250MM range.

Beltway Notes: McLouth, Rizo, Olivera

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While the Orioles looking for outfield help, swinging a trade with the Nationals to bring back Nate McLouth doesn’t seem like an option at this time, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.  The O’s believe they have a suitable replacement for McLouth in David Lough, despite Lough’s underwhelming 2014 season.  McLouth himself is also coming off a tough season that included shoulder surgery, and he’s owed $5MM in 2015 (plus a $6.5MM team option for 2016 with a $750K buyout), so it’s no surprise Baltimore prefers a younger, cheaper option in Lough.  Interestingly, the O’s and Nats have never combined on a trade since the Nationals came to Washington; the last trade between the two franchises took place in October 2001 when the Nationals were still the Montreal Expos.

Here’s some more about the Orioles and Nationals…

  • Also from Encina, a source tells him the Orioles don’t have a contract in place with Nicaraguan center fielder Arnol Rizo, contrary to a media report out of the country.  The O’s will likely take a look at the 23-year-old when scouts head to Nicaragua next week.
  • The Nationals make some sense as a suitor for Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera given their need at the keystone, though MASNsports.com’s Dan Kolko lists a few reasons (i.e. salary, Olivera’s injury history, a lack of recent scouting information) why Washington could pass.
  • James Wagner of the Washington Post catches up with infamous former Nationals prospect Carlos Alvarez, who is still trying to continue his pro baseball career.  Alvarez signed a $1.4MM contract with the Nats in 2006 while playing under a false identity (Esmailyn Gonzalez) and age (16) when he was actually 20 years old.  Once Alvarez was discovered, the fallout led to MLB enforcing stricter rules to prevent identity fraud for Dominican prospects and also resulted in the Nationals firing then-general manager Jim Bowden and subsequently hiring current GM Mike Rizzo.

Checking In On Baseball’s Lowest Scoring Offenses

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A high-octane offense doesn’t guarantee overall success, but it certainly helps.  In 2014, the Angels (98 wins, 773 runs), Tigers (90 wins, 757 runs), and A’s (88 wins, 729 runs) all reached the postseason thanks in part to their top five offenses.  The bottom five teams, meanwhile, all missed the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at those bottom five teams and see what they’ve done to improve their offensive production so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the teams’ moves on MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker and 2014 run totals are in parentheses. For reference, the average MLB team scored 659 runs last year.

  • Padres (535) – Nobody has been more aggressive this offseason than the Padres, who finished dead last in runs scored in 2014.  The Padres have placed no better than 24th in runs scored since 2011 and you have to go back all the way to 2007 to find a season in which they didn’t place in the bottom third of the league.  That’s likely to change now, however, thanks to A.J. Preller’s complete overhaul of the outfield.  Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers all come to San Diego with a history of producing at the plate and they have every intention of beating the odds at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  And, despite his recent struggles, the Padres are hoping that they can get third baseman Will Middlebrooks to perform closer to his 2012 effort.
  • Braves (573) – The Braves surprised many when they shipped right fielder Jason Heyward to the Cardinals for right-hander Shelby Miller.  Then, the Braves replaced the defensive-minded Heyward with another defense-first outfielder in Nick Markakis.  In recent seasons, Markakis has profiled as a high-OBP, low-power bat and odds are that he probably won’t magically rediscover his pop from years ago.  Soon after, the Justin Upton trade took away a bat that produced a .270/.342/.491 slash line with 29 homers in 2014.  Atlanta made it clear this offseason that they’ll bank on improvement from within to fix their offensive woes, though it remains to be seen if that will be a sound strategy.  A 180° from B.J. Upton would certainly help the cause, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that he’ll be on a short leash.  Atlanta, he says, will consider moving to a platoon of Zoilo Almonte and Todd Cunningham if Upton continues to flounder.
  • Reds (595) – The Reds didn’t do much to bolster their offense until a New Year’s Eve deal with the Phillies brought in Marlon Byrd.  The 37-year-old has refused to let Father Time slow him down.  After surprising everyone in 2013 with a 291/.336/.511 slash line between the Mets and Pirates in 2013, Byrd turned in a solid .264/.312/.445 with 25 homers for Philadelphia in 2014.  Byrd satisfied their need for an outfielder to go alongside Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton and he won’t break the bank thanks to the $4MM that the Phillies sent over in the deal.
  • Rays (612) – Parting with a young, power-hitting right fielder (Myers) may seem an odd way to bolster a lineup, but Tampa is obviously high on the player it acquired to replace him. It remains to be seen whether Steven Souza can translate his tools to the MLB game, but his eye-opening .350/.432/.590 output at Triple-A last year provides evidence in the affirmative. The club also added a bat-first middle infielder in Asdrubal Cabrera, although it remains to be seen whether his signing constitutes a prelude to a trade involving the even more productive Ben Zobrist.
  • Cubs (614) – Chicago’s big signing, Jon Lester, was designed to keep opposition runs off the board. The same could be said, to an extent, about the team’s addition of backstops Miguel Montero and David Ross. But each member of that new catching pairing has put up big offensive numbers in the not-so-distant past. Beyond that, the organization will hope for continued progress from its young, high-upside core of position players while excitement builds over the expected mid-season deployment of power-hitting third base prospect Kris Bryant, who will finish his seasoning at Triple-A to start the year.

Quick Hits: Braves, Orioles, Royals

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ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick kicked off the new year by running down MLB’s 15 most interesting people for ’15.  Among names like incoming commissioner Rob Manfred and Cubs skipper Joe Maddon, Padres GM A.J. Preller is highlighted as one of baseball’s names to watch.  The GM has overhauled the entire team, prompting new acquisition Matt Kemp to term him a front office “rock star,” a designation that is hard to argue with.  Here’s more from around baseball…

  • Yesterday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com raised the possibility that the Braves could pull Luis Avalan out of trade discussions after moving fellow southpaw Chasen Shreve.  However, he also notes that James Russell could take over as the top lefty out of Atlanta’s ’pen if he can show that his struggles against left-handed batters are a thing of the past.   Avalan is under control through 2018, making him appealing to other clubs but also an asset that Atlanta might like to keep.
  • With eleven pending free agents, the Orioles will be facing some major questions soon, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com writes.  The O’s have five position players, four relievers, and two starting pitchers that can hit the open market after the 2015 season.  Some are calling for them to start making moves now as a preemptive strike, but that would likely hamstring them for 2015.  The O’s could instead wait and see how the first half of the season goes, then start making trades at the deadline if they’re not looking the part of the contender.  Alternatively, Baltimore could let those players go and spend the money elsewhere.  Those eleven players will earn $56.6MM in 2014, meaning that they could do a lot with that money in the offseason.
  • The Royals love their hard throwers at the back end of their bullpen and they acquired another one in right-hander Jandel Gustave.  Alan Eskew of Baseball America looks at what Kansas City can expect out of the 22-year-old.  The Red Sox selected Gustave sixth overall in the Rule 5 Draft from the Astros, then sent him to KC for cash.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Carpenter, Orioles

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Hiroki Kuroda was said to be deciding between the Yankees, a return to Japan, and retirement this offseason.  That doesn’t mean that another club didn’t try and work their way into things, however.  The Padres reportedly made a serious push to sign Kuroda before he ultimately agreed to join the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.  While Kuroda would have been a solid addition to San Diego’s starting five, it’s hard to feel bad for the Padres given the major acquisitions they’ve already made this winter.  Here’s a look at Kuroda’s former team and more out of the AL East..

  • Brendan Kuty of the Star-Ledger looked at the Yankees’ acquisition of relievers David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve.  After trading effective right-handed reliever Shawn Kelly to the Padres on Monday, Carpenter comes in as a solid replacement who is also younger and cheaper.  While the 31-year-old Kelley will hit the open market next season, the 29-year-old Carpenter can’t until 2018.  Shreve, meanwhile, could find a spot as the seventh man in the Yanks’ bullpen.  The deal, of course, meant giving up once-promising southpaw Manny Banuelos, who will now look to get on track with the Braves.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com looks ahead at what might be in store for the Orioles between now and Opening Day.  The O’s figure to add at least one left-handed bat for the outfield and Colby Rasmus appears to be the current favorite for that role.  Baltimore executive VP Dan Duquette would also like to add a catcher and a right-handed reliever for the big league club and might make a depth signing by adding a starter in Triple-A Norfolk.
  • The Yankees should be excited about pitching coach Larry Rothschild working with the newly-acquired Nathan Eovaldi, Kuty writes.  The 24-year-old right hander can bring the heat, but he has yet to make that translate into gaudy strikeout totals.   Eovaldi, 25 in February, has a career 6.3 K/9 versus 2.9 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Avilan, Zduriencik, Red Sox

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We at MLBTR would like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of Bill Kearns, a veteran Mariners scout who passed away last night at age 94.  Kearns was hired by the Mariners prior to their debut 1977 season and has been with the franchise for its entire history.  A World War II veteran and former Brooklyn Dodgers minor leaguer, Kearns’ long career in baseball led him to scouting jobs with the Dodgers, White Sox and Royals before eventually joining the M’s.  In a statement from the team, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik said “Bill was a gentleman, in the finest sense, and represented his family and the Mariners in a first-class manner. And he was an excellent scout, a true ambassador of the Mariners and the game of baseball. Bill was one of the most positive people I have ever met.  He will be missed.”

Here’s some more notes from around the league as 2015 is now upon us…

  • Left-hander Luis Avilan’s name had recently come up in trade talks, though now that the Braves have traded another southpaw in Chasen Shreve, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wonders (Twitter link) if Atlanta could keep Avilan in the fold.  Earlier today, the Braves sent Shreve and David Carpenter to the Yankees in exchange for Manny Banuelos.
  • Zduriencik and Seth Smith discussed the recent trade that brought Smith to the Mariners in a conference call with reporters (including Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune).  The extension that Smith signed with the Padres last summer was a factor in the trade, as Zduriencik noted that “one of the things we tried to stay away from was giving up talent for one-year returns…I think you’re getting a player who can be with you for at least the next three years.”
  • With Craig Breslow’s physical scheduled for Monday, the Red Sox will face a tough decision in opening up a spot for the reliever on their 40-man roster, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes.  Dan Butler, Tommy Layne, Zeke Spruill and Drake Britton are potential candidates to lose their 40-man spots, with Bradford citing Britton as maybe the most vulnerable because he’s out of options.  There’s also “a very real scenario” where Boston makes a trade to free up roster space.
  • A number of recent Orioles news items and rumors are recapped by MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, including the new information that the O’s would like to sign a right-handed reliever, possibly on a minor league deal.
  • Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi recently said his team won’t be making any other major starting pitching signings, which worries Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times since he feels the rotation lacks depth beyond the top three of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu.  On the other hand, Dilbeck wonders if Zaidi’s statement was tactical, similar to how the GM denied that Dee Gordon was being shopped just before Gordon was dealt to Miami.
  • In an Insider-only piece for ESPN.com, Tony Blengino describes Adam LaRoche signing with the White Sox as “a perfect marriage of club, player, ballpark and contract.”  Using analyses of LaRoche’s swing and U.S. Cellular Field’s park factor, Blengino thinks the veteran first baseman could challenge for the AL homer crown if he stays healthy.

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