Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles. After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.
Strengths/Pros
Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher. In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85. Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100. He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse. He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13. Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.
Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases. The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13. The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons. Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches. He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.
As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling. The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated. In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength. He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.
Weaknesses/Cons
From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball. The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years. Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year. Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL. His season debut came on June 5th.
From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games. He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September. Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles. As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year. He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann. In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.
Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size. He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds. Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself). One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.
Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers. The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches. He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well. Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases. He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would have ranked eighth among qualifiers.
I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.
Personal
Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta. Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.” Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt. He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.
Market
Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer. I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts. But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first? If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March. In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”
If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles. Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had. Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros. Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks. The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out. The Braves are a legitimate match. Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech. Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt. The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.
The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit. They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer. Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse. The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.
Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.
Expected Contract
I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM. I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.
While historically it may be true that the White Sox have not signed many free agents with Boras as their agent. But unlike Kenny Williams, Rick Hahn has a good relationship with Boras. So far he hasnt had trouble signing his clients. I expect us to be in the bidding for Wieters until the end. Looks like they’ve finally had enough of Flowers in the lineup everyday.
I’m genuinely interested if there is anybody out there who thinks the O’s should not extend a QO to Wieters. I’ve engaged people throughout the summer who think the O’s won’t do it out of fear for Wieters taking the offer as a “pillow” deal. I can’t for the life of me see that happening. This could be his only chance to land a long-term deal on the open market and a one-year pillow deal would be risky. Seriously, how often do you get to go out and sign a #1 catcher when the need is there? He’s the only one on the market. It won’t be hard for Boras to find at least one, if not two teams willing to dance and go at least 4 years on Wieters.
I agree. Don’t think Boras will help his cause any however though. He’ll hold out maybe too long and wait for bids to come in that just won’t appear, as he does with people on the fringe, or previously hurt and could be a shame for really good guys like Wieters.
I do think that if McCann is able to get 5/85, then Wieters is worth every penny of the same contract as a much stronger defensive catcher who has a history as a power bat and knows how to run a pitching staff, much like Varitek from Boston used to know all of his pitchers, something the article neglected to mention and should not be overlooked.
Mentioning varitek and borass in the same sentence while trying to makes points for borass/weiters doesn’t help your point.
Leadership abilities behind the plate is the comparison between catchers and the fact both are extremely knowledgable of staff. Both also very nice at blocking balls in the dirt.
There is more to the game than simply hitting, as what NY paid McCann to do and Weiters, Molina are the 2 veteran masters of the game currently. I’d like to see Boston give Vaqzuez a long chance to be the starting catcher, even if he isn’t the best hitter around. Doing everything behind the plate to the point of perfection is all I want and those 2 (Molina, Weiters) are the ones currently at the top.
I am referencing the direction borass took when varitek went to free agency. He completely screwed it up for V. Asking too much and too many years. I can easily see this happening with EVERY non-elite player borass represents…
How can Wieters be at the top when so far he hasn’t shown he’s recovered from TJ nor will he ever be the same as he was years ago.
I agree and have said as much from the beginning but word is the organization is leaning more towards no then yes which really surprised me.
Wieters has to prove he’s a top catcher after his almost 2 years off.
I think the O’s would be crazy to offer a QO to Matt. There’s the possibility he’d take it. After making 8MM last year. He’s very tight with Buck. They cannot take a chance even if it is remote.
C’mon Braves! All signs point to yes. #3 pick is protected and we even picked up the Comp. Balance pick from MIA in the Olivera deal, so the QO might not be a humongous issue, if he gets it
We didn’t get rid of all those bad contracts to get into another one, not including we’d lose a decent 2nd rd pick (with BAL’s presumed QO). I like the guy, but I don’t think he can catch 110 games per year in the NL (no DH to hide him at). I say take the cost saving and try and deal for Lucroy if at all possible, then have conversations with Boras.
It’s actually opposite. He would be a good fit for a National League team because when healthy he has shown an ability to catch in over a 140 games which is rare for a catcher to do year in year out. His bat is good enough to keep him in the lineup every day without the need to DH him. His health was good before TJ and now he’s a year removed. A team is going to get a great deal as the QO and health concern surpress his value. He will easily get 4/60 and will be very much worth it.
He won’t be worth it to a team that’s still in rebuild mode. If that QO gets attached to him that should keep Braves out of the running for him.
The Braves act opportunistically (great word), and they have benefited from TJ surgery in the Draft, so I can see them easily lurking in the waters to find Wieters at a decent price. That wouldn’t be a bad contract (4/60).
They were smart enough to take the chance on Markakis when he needed neck surgery. At 44 for 4 they got a steal there. Matt and Nick are close. I see them as teammates again. They’ll get Wieters relatively cheap and would be wise to grab him. Hart’s the smartest guy out there.
But the guy is not healthy. He ought to accept the QO and prove himself -then he will be up for the huge contract. A multi-year contract now would be a risk not worth taking.
Hes more than a year from TJ and had a lot of rest. He is and will be healthy for next season.
How do you know?
If he’s not healthy, consider the strong possibility that returning to Baltimore for one year on a pillow deal could actually prevent him from getting a long-term deal the following offseason. This is his best shot at a long-term contract even if it isn’t for an AAV higher than the QO will present. I’d wager Wieters is more interested in a larger amount of guaranteed money over a 4 to 5 year period than his year-to-year average salary.
Agree with you but wouldn’t count on a QO.
I hope the Astros take a hard look. I like Castro but he just cannot hit.
He’d be a good fit for Houston. Good leader in the clubhouse and good game caller. Also will come cheaper than his true value because of the injury fear.
Could bring in Davis and Weiters from the O’s. Get rid of some dead money before they sign them in Carter and Castro.
Mr. Wieters, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE come to Minnesota! You will be LOVED here!!!
Just for the record, Nick Hundley had a higher wRC+ than Wieters this year, and was worth 2.3 fWAR. So not only would the Rockies (who also have a very good C prospect, Tom Murphy, just about ready) be uninterested, Hundley could well be available for anyone seeking a catcher.
Than why did the Os let Hundley go for Wieters instead of keeping Nick and trading Wieters? Comparing Hundley to Wieters is like comparing Rich Hill in his four Boston starts to Price cause Hill was better for four games.
Because the O’s made a mistake? Hundley isn’t better than Wieters by any means, but if they had kept Nick and traded Wieters, say for a starting pitcher, they’d be a heckuva lot better off.
Also Wieters isn’t very good. Hundley is a lot closer to Wieters than Hill is to Price. Not in the same universe.
WAR for catchers doesn’t do much for me. I think most teams would consider Wieters to be notably better than Hundley, especially over the next several years, but I have no idea if the Rockies do. I think the Murphy point is a good one though.
Tyler Flowers of the White Sox is 6’4″ 245 lbs.
So he’s not as tall as Wieters!
Tyler Flowers GOAT
Sorry but no way is Wieters as good a hitter than McCann. This is not a guy I’m breaking the bank for.
When you compare Wieters to McCann defensively it’s just as different in the other direction. McCann is, at best, an average defensive catcher while Wieters is one of the top defenders and handlers of a staff behind the plate.