The Cubs’ primary offseason goal is to add an impact starting pitcher. They will also address center field, consider trades for surplus position players, and explore an extension for Jake Arrieta.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jon Lester, SP: $125MM through 2020; mutual option for 2021
- Starlin Castro, 2B/SS: $38MM through 2019; club option for 2020
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $32MM through 2019; club options for 2020 and 2021
- Miguel Montero, C: $28MM through 2017
- Jorge Soler, RF: $18MM through 2020; may opt into arbitration after 2017
- Jason Hammel, SP: $11MM through 2016; club option for 2017 that may become void based on ’16 performance
- David Ross, C: $2.25MM through 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
- Jonathan Herrera (5.101) – $1.1MM
- Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
- Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
- Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.6MM
- Taylor Teagarden (4.093) –
- Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
- Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Herrera, Teagarden
Contract Options
- None
Free Agents
- Dexter Fowler, Trevor Cahill, Dan Haren, Tommy Hunter, Jason Motte, Fernando Rodney, Chris Denorfia, Austin Jackson
Expectations have been raised for the 2016 Cubs, after the club reached the NLCS for the first time in 12 years. The team’s position player core has the potential to be in place for at least five more years. Jorge Soler is under team control through 2020, while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez are under control through 2021. At 26 years old, Rizzo is the elder statesman of the group. Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Baez are years from arbitration, and Soler ($3MM) and Rizzo ($5MM) are also very cheap. Theo Epstein and company have assembled something special and have lined the players up for sustained success.
Bryant’s rookie season defense suggests he’ll remain mostly at third base next year, although manager Joe Maddon dabbled with him at each outfield position and may continue to do so. Rizzo is locked in at first base. The veteran tandem of Montero and Ross will return at catcher.
The Cubs have a middle infield surplus. Russell will remain the starting shortstop, so the question is what to do with Baez and Castro. Both players were acquired under the Jim Hendry front office, though Epstein’s group brokered the extension with Castro in the summer of 2012. Castro’s 2015 season was near replacement level, and he lost the starting shortstop job to Russell in August. Partially because of an injury to Soler that forced Chris Coghlan back to the outfield, Castro became the starting second baseman in September and had a blistering month. He continued in that role throughout the playoffs.
Castro won’t turn 26 until March, and he’s an enigma. He tallied 529 hits from age 20-22, joining Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders to accomplish that feat in baseball history. Since then he’s had replacement level seasons in 2013 and ’15, sandwiching a solid 2014. The Cubs prefer Russell and Baez over Castro as defensive shortstops, so it’s unclear whether another team would install Castro at short. He did show pretty well at second base late in the year.
If Castro became a free agent right now and demanded a four-year deal with a club option, I think he could get $38MM or a bit more. So perhaps the Cubs could move him without eating salary, though they wouldn’t get a player back with much surplus value. The Mets, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees could be potential trade partners for the Cubs, who would presumably look to add starting pitching. Most of those teams have pitching depth, and the Cubs could look to add to their bullpen as well.
Baez, who turns 23 in December and comes with six years of control, is also a trade candidate. He was able to cut his strikeout rate a bit in Triple-A this year, while dealing with the tragic passing of his sister as well as a broken finger. Baez’s star potential gives him much more trade value than Castro, and it would be risky for the Cubs to move him. The flip side of that is that making him available opens the door to controllable upper-tier arms like Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross, pitchers the Cubs pursued in July. All in all, Castro is more likely to be dealt than Baez this winter, yet there is a reasonable chance the club enters the season with both and delays the trade decision. Baez could serve as the team’s backup infielder to start the season.
Schwarber’s bat is well ahead of his glove. He joined the Cubs in mid-June and clubbed 21 home runs in 304 plate appearances, including his postseason onslaught. The plan remains the same for 2016: bring him along as a catcher when possible, while keeping his bat in the lineup as the left fielder. Trading Schwarber at this point in his career would be an extremely bold move that I don’t anticipate the Cubs making. Trading Chris Coghlan is a safer alternative. He and Schwarber both bat left-handed, so they can’t form a left field platoon. Coghlan remains affordable in his final year of team control, and he hit .264/.355/.476 against right-handed pitching this year. I’m reminded of Seth Smith, who was traded to the Padres for Luke Gregerson two years ago. The Angels, Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and White Sox could be potential trade partners for Coghlan.
Though he’s cut from the same cloth as Baez, the Cubs could consider trading Soler for controllable pitching. Soler posted a replacement level rookie season, with poor defense and a 30% strikeout rate. His 112 total games played marked a pro career high. Still, Soler flashed All-Star potential in the playoffs. Like Baez, the safe move here is to retain Soler and see what he becomes.
With Schwarber and Soler penciled in at the outfield corners, center field is the Cubs’ clearest position of need. Coming off the healthiest season of his career, Dexter Fowler is due a qualifying offer and perhaps a four-year contract in the $60MM range. While the Cubs have the capacity to sign him, they may acknowledge that a four-year deal wouldn’t provide good value. If Denard Span does not receive a qualifying offer and the Cubs aren’t scared off by his September hip surgery, he could be a cheaper replacement on a shorter term. The Cubs have 2012 first-rounder Albert Almora working his way up the minor leagues, so a shorter-term investment makes sense. Bringing Austin Jackson back is an option, or the Cubs could look into a trade for the Yankees’ Brett Gardner. Epstein has named outfield defense as an area of improvement, which could mean exploring trades for players like Leonys Martin or Juan Lagares.
Despite some decisions to be made on the position player side, the Cubs’ offseason focus will be on their rotation. The group is currently fronted by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. After the season, Epstein spoke of his desire to add “impact pitching,” as well as big league depth. He seems open to the “necessary evil” of free agency, and this year’s class is stacked with David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Jeff Samardzija could also be considered a potential impact arm. Then there’s John Lackey, who Epstein signed as Red Sox GM six years ago. Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Lackey would likely require the Cubs to forfeit their first-round draft pick. The Cubs could make trade attempts for Carrasco, Ross, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, or Stephen Strasburg, though some of them will be off-limits and they come with varying amounts of team control. In the end, expect the Cubs to come away with someone they’re comfortable starting in the first three games of a playoff series.
Hammel and Hendricks can capably fill out the back of the Cubs’ rotation. Hendricks, 26 in December, won’t reach arbitration until after the 2017 season, and the Cubs could include him as part of a trade for a better pitcher like Ross. Epstein’s mention of depth is important, as the club avoided major injuries in 2015. They need to safeguard against possible injuries in 2016, especially with ace Jake Arrieta reaching 248 2/3 frames. That means starting the year with at least six capable options. Travis Wood could be stretched out if needed, but the Cubs should probably add two starters.
The Cubs assembled an interesting collection of relievers by the time the playoffs started, with a surprisingly heavy reliance on failed starters Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Clayton Richard along with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm. Wood’s past as a starter will drive his arbitration price up to more than you’d like to pay, but he posted a 2.95 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in regular season relief and should be retained. It’s unclear whether Cahill, 28 in March, will embrace a relief role as a free agent. He was very good in that role for 22 1/3 innings after joining the Cubs, and the team should find a way to bring him back.
Perhaps in the new year, the Cubs will explore an extension for Arrieta. A big factor is who they are able to acquire – if it’s David Price on a seven-year deal, the Cubs would seem unlikely to make Arrieta their third long-term $25MM+ pitcher. If it’s two years of Tyson Ross, maybe there’s room for a huge deal for Arrieta. We project Arrieta to make a big leap to a $10.6MM salary in arbitration for 2016, and then he’d be due another raise for 2017. Signing him now could allow the Cubs to temper those two arbitration salaries, but it would be a question of how many years the pitcher would need on top. Arrieta’s projected free agency begins with his age 32 season, and Scott Boras is his agent. Zack Greinke’s new deal will also begin with his age 32 season. Whatever Greinke gets for his free agent years, Boras will expect the same. That could be $150MM over five years, $160MM over six, or something else, but we should know by January. The Cubs have to ask the hard question of whether giving Arrieta ace money through age 36 or 37 is prudent, when they already control his age 30 and 31 seasons.
If the Cubs are already looking at $185MM or so over seven years to lock Arrieta up in January 2016, how much higher would the price be in January 2017? Can the Cubs wait this year out to see how Arrieta’s arm holds up after all the added innings, or will the window to extend him be mostly closed by that point? If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Cubs could at least gain cost certainty by signing Arrieta to a two-year deal.
In 2015, Joe Maddon’s Cubs got close enough to taste their first World Series in 70 years before running into the Mets buzzsaw in the NLCS. The Cubs were playing with house money with a lot of fans this year, as many perceived this club to be a year early. Now, the team will hike ticket prices and add to the payroll to assemble a playoff-caliber rotation to complement their exciting young position players.
Just for fun, Cubs trade for Chris Sale what is the package the Cubs give up?
As a Sox fan, I patiently wait the answer to this question. A lot of Cubs fans will say: Castro, Montero Vogelbach which isn’t nearly enough.
If I’m Rick Hahn and company and that’s the offer I laugh and hang up the phone.
If you live in Chicago, there’s been so many articles written since July and ideas on local radio of potential deals between the teams and from the Sox pov, they’re all laughable.
It is easy to sit back and say all offense would be laughable. A little harder to try and put one out there. So Brian what would you say a good package would be?
I start with Schwarber as the meat and say what else would you like for your sides?
If Schwarber is the meat then I’m looking at McKinney, Torres, Pierce Johnson, and low level guys who are promising. Most likely a 7 player deal
the cubs wouldn’t trade Schwaber straight up for Sale. Epstein has made it abundantly clear that his model is built around having solid, young position players and complimenting them with pitchers later on. While pitching is obviously necessary to win, he’s concluded it makes a poor investment, since so many pitchers get hurt/lose effectiveness over time. Look at someone like Tim Lincecum, for example.
If the Sox want to trade Sale for prospects, they’ll have to choose from Castro or Baez plus some of the Cubs minor leaguers like Almora, Edwards, etc. Probably not enough to get a deal done, but then again the Cubs can get a pitcher close to Sale’s caliber via free agency (Price, Greinke, etc.) and pay only a draft pick. Absolutely no reason to trade one of their best players.
Castro, Soler, Hendrick?
No Cubs fan would seriously throw out Castro, Montero and Vogelbach as a real trade proposal for Sale.
Most sox fans would say Schwarber, Soler and Castro
That’s why people say sox fans are idiots. 1) cubs would never do that, and 2) outside of sox Fandom that is ridiculously a lopsided trade way in the favor of the white sox. Fans always expect more for their player than what that player is actually worth. If theo and Co. has shown people anything it’s that they are usually the ones taking advantage of other teams in trades. Just look at last year and the Russell deal. Then there is the Garza deal to Texas for Justin Grimm, CJ Edwards, and Neil Ramirez…… along with Mike Olt. Grimm Ramirez and likely Edwards will all be in the Cubs bullpen next year and all are solid. That’s nearly half a bullpen for….. Matt friggin Garza. Then there was the Dempster trade which ultimately netted them Kyle Hendricks. Not bad seeing as Dempster was a pitcher nearing retirement (traded in 2012…. retired after 2013).
Going to be more like Baez, Almora, Contreras, and McKinney.
Thank you. And I bet Quintana would be more available than Sale who has one more year of control than Sale and still signed to a very team friendly deal.
@Brian I think quintana is the realistic target for them for sure but that’s still not a cheap trade for the Cubs
I’d say that’s a little closer but still not enough for Sale. I could see Quintana getting Baez, Almora, and someone else so I would anticipate Sale getting a lot more
I wouldn’t trade Baez and Almora for Quintana. No way, two above average starters in premium positions for one above average SP
I don’t think you can call those guys above average starters when neither has done a thing in the majors. Quintana is statistically one of the most valuable pitchers in the AL as well as one a dirt cheap contract. Money plays a large role in these trades as well.
Thats a tough one to swallow. I really like Contreras and think he’s the future catcher so I wouldn’t trade him. I’d be more comfortable with the Cubs trading Schwarber and change than give up four really good players who should all end up being over average everyday players
You don’t trade for arguably the best pitcher in baseball for Schwarber and change. It would take Bryant or Russell and most likely Almora or McKinney then Pierce Johnson or CJ Edwards. It’s not just that Sale is that good but he’s getting paid like a no.3 pitcher right now
He’s an elite pitcher but he might not even be top five in all of baseball. He wouldn’t even be the Cubs number one pitcher
Sale would absolutely be the Cubs #1. When you compare his numbers, keep in mind that he has not been facing a pitcher every 9 batters, while playing in one of the most homer friendly parks in the AL.
Argubly the best pitcher in baseball? That’s the most ridiculous thing I read in a long time.
@amish yeah? how exactly? who is statistically better than Sale other than Kershaw and I hope you say Jake so I can shove stats in your face
You can pick and choose stats to make him sound like the best and I can pick and choose stats to make him sound average. And if one of us couldn’t do that to make our case we could make something up to strengthen our case. It’s a pointless exercise in futility that people do all the time. Clearly if you look at the Dynamic Run Per Pitch Matrix when it’s 60-62 degrees and the game start time was 4:05 Sale is the worst, but if you look at the Hit Per Foul Ball Ratio when the opposing team starts a left handed first baseman he is the best.
With this being said, I would take Sale on my team, but his 2015 wasn’t as good as his previous years. Seeing how some pitchers go from elite to average or worse in a short time frame, I look at recent performance more. They say free agency is the worst investment you can make (I hated the Lester deal and I hate that the Cubs will sign Price or somebody else for $150 million this offseason); I think trading prospects for big time names is worse.
You’re acting like Sale isn’t even a top 10 pitcher. Relax.
In 2015 was he a top 10 pitcher? On the surface (13-11 with a 3.41) it’s a tough argument to make.
@Amishthunderak Sox fans think in a bubble. Sale is close to GOD-like as was Aaron Rowand
Don’t bring Aaron Roland into this conversation when the clearly deserving Paul Konerko hasn’t received his call from Cooperstown yet.
Not even close. If Russell or Bryant isn’t in the deal, that doesn’t even start a conversation. Sale is just about the most valuable player in baseball.
I think the Sox would immediately start with Russell or Bryant and if they aren’t included then no deal. simple as that
come on now. Yeah he’s got a great deal but pitchers come with a huge risk. No way he’s the most valuable player in baseball
have you ever heard of Altuve or Goldschmidt?
yeah I have and I don’t think you understand just how valuable Sale is. If you think you can get him for B level prospects than you are on a drug you have to share with everyone else. He is a top 3 pitcher in baseball, no argument at all, I’m a red sox fan and if you’re a cubs fan simply hating on the sox than you are so mistaken. You do not get Sale for cheap
Bryant was a 6 WAR player as a rookie, and he’s cheap and controllable and probably will get better. No way would the Cubs trade Bryant straight up for Sale, much less throw in additional prospects.
Russell is a very good defensive middle INF with the potential to hit 20+ Hrs, and is dirt cheap as well.
Those types of players aren’t readily available. The Cubs would be far, far better off keeping both and signing a FA pitcher.
Altuve isn’t even the most valuable player on his own team anymore.
I think I just threw up in mouth a little bit.
Realistically? Based on production, age and contract, Sale might be the game’s most valuable pitcher/player. It would take a mega package to get him, especially a cross-town rival. Think like Bryant & Schwarber OR Schwarber, Russell and a prospect like Almora or Mckinnley. Not getting him for less; not getting him to the Cubs at all.
@Eilexx thank you! Sale isn’t even technically at his best yet! no, you never know but no one knows if any of the cubs players will repeat this performance! No way Sale gets traded without Bryant, Russell, or Schwarber in that deal
Oh man, the nonsense you’ve created.
Chris Sale is signed to arguably the most attractive contract in all of baseball. So attractive is his contract that most lists of the best contracts in baseball have him at the top.
True value on a contract like that (proven ace at peak of his game, long term deal with limited money, relatively young player, left handed) is beyond any reasonable offer. I mean, you’re talking Bryant AND Scwarber territory. Is that unreasonable? Yes. Is that what it would cost? Yes.
Which is why this deal can never happen.
Sonny Gray’s contract is far, far, far more attractive than Chris Sale’s 4/47M deal. He’s at the league minimum and is already a proven ace and has pitched extraordinarily well in the postseason and big games in the regular season, and we havent even seen the best of him.
You mean in a bizarro universe where a single all star season in two seasons both pitched in a vastly pitcher friendly park trumps a half decade of top 5 Cy Young finishes, right?
Ah….no.
He’s pitched like an All-Star since Day 1. The ASG manger aren’t going to throw a rookie in there, they pick their own guys. Gray was/is a serious Cy contender this year.
His signature game was game 162 in TEXAS – a decidedly non-pitcher friendly park. Gray makes no money, ergo, Gray’s contract is MASSIVELY better value than Sale’s. Sale is the superior pitcher, but there is no minimum wage ace out there other than Gray.
Ah…yes.
Nothing like minimalizing ballpark effects by pointing at a singular start. LOL.
Then again, that isn’t half as bad as answering my comment on his short service time with “he’s pitched like an all-star since day one”.
Well…yeah. The problem with that is he doesn’t even have 50 major league starts yet. He’s a prospect, albiet an advanced one. But there’s probably 20 starters between a guy like Sale and Gray in terms of what they’re worth.
What have you done for me lately? 2015 Sale was 13-11 with a 3.41. Give me the run support, etc. excuses and I’ll tell you I’d take the 6-17 and 3.02 ERA Shelby Miller on arbitration at this point for way less than you crazies are saying it will take to land Sale. Lets say Torres, Black, and a low level mid tier arm for Miller. Apparently it will take Arrieta, Byant, and Russel for White Sox fans to consider giving up the next coming of Sandy Koufax. Put a bat in Sales hands and he’ll probably hit 60 HR’s a season too.
No offense to Sale, he is a quality player and I’d take him on my team but you White Sox fans are more delusional than Red Sox fans.
But seriously, I’d take Shelby Miller too.
Lately? Other than setting major league records this year? LOL
He had a 2.73 FIP, meaning the higher ERA was a function of bad luck. His stuff hasn’t regressed, if that’s what you were insinuating.
Sale’s contract is a bargain, but not nearly the bargain that Bryant’s and Russell’s contracts represent.
I missed the part where either of those players have a long track record of being amongst the best at their position.
They are prospects who have had limited success. Are they valuable? Sure. But the two of them would probably not net Sale.
If the Cubs take the whole 4/$47M contract, something like Schwarber, Baez, Edwards & Happ. A little less than what the Cubs would need to send for Sonny Gray, who’s still on the league minimum and isn’t a FA until 2020, but still a decent bounty.
The money Gray and Sale will cost going forward are about even. Gray will have three years of arbitration beginning next off-season, and those numbers can get crazy. Look at Price…in his final year of arb he got $19M+ this year. 4 years of inflation could make that number $25M or $26M, which might push Gray’s overall total passed Sale’s $47M guaranteed. And right now…Sale is the better pitcher.
I agree with that, but youre talking in 5 years Gray might be up around $25M. In 2016? He’s min wage. That’s huge for a team like Chicago, who already have a ton of guys making min wage, meaning they have the pieces to both trade for Gray and sign a massive deal with Price, Greinke etc.
Pretty nice to place to be right now, if you ask me. Cubs fans gotta be drooling at what this offseason holds. They could trade for just about anyone and sign a big name or two.
In order to come up with a real trade value you would have to look at comparable trades. David Price to the Tigers would be the most resent comparable trade. Also you would have to look at the trends throughout baseball and right now there are 2 premiums and that’s ace pitching and power. So using these 2 factors and adding the unique variables of Sale’s performance and his contract you come up with your offer. Kyle Schwarber, Dan Vogelbach, and Baez all provide the power premium they would need, and adding a pitcher such as CJ Edwards or Pierce Johnson would complete the deal. That’s is more than Tampa got for Price and more than Philly got for Hammels. You might now be saying that isn’t enough for a pitcher of Sale’s caliber and contract but you also have to factor Sale’s fragility. He hasn’t pitched a complete season once
The Cubs have to teach their players to hit for hits not just try and homerun teams to death. It’s time to figure out who is the starting SS and try and make a trade for a quality starter. Lester and Arrieta aren’t enough. They need better bullpen arms. You Cubs fans better hope that Lester had a down year because if this is what he is then your in trouble.
It’s fun to watch that’s for sure but the bashing power teams are hard to carry for 162 games there will be a lot of ups and downs with production
They know who the SS is. It’s Russell. Lester was a top ten pitcher in the NL this year so if thats an off year I’m not worried. I don’t understand the Lester hate, people get too caught up in the W L record for SPs.
He had 11 wins. Was not top ten in NL. If you signed up for him to have 11 wins a year then your a clown
King Felix was 13-12 the year he won his Cy Young. Pitcher wins are the least informative stat in baseball.
King Felix was on one of the worst teams in the league with little to no offense. Lester was on a playoff team with a good offense.
You’re on MLBTR using pitcher wins to assist your argument. RIP to you.
Yeah, winning games doesn’t matter.
Lester showed tremendous regression in his command this year, which is normal for a pitcher on this side of 30. But considering it’s year one, that doesn’t really bode well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him become a back of the rotation pitcher next year.
I registered just to respond to this post. Lester logged 5 WAR and you think that was a down year? Are you willfully ignorant or just ignorant?
11 wins. That’s all I have to say.
Pitchers don’t control the hitting or defense that support them.
Or the managers choice to pull them or leave them in, or the umpires strike zones, or the schedule, or, or, or…
Why did we give a TEAM stat to a single player again? Pitcher W-L is the least logical stat in ALL of professional sports and absolutely needs to be abolished entirely, throw it in the trash, its worthless. A pitcher can literally throw 35 CG’s and give up 1 run in all of them and be 0-35 with a 1.00 ERA. Dumb dumb dumb…
13 wins. That’s all I have to say.
I also watched a Mets team steam roll the Cubs in 4 games.
Except Schwarber and Soler hit so many home runs against them, so it wasn’t really a steam roll. If one or two other guys decided to hit we’d have a different story.
That’s not their skillset. You don’t teach someone to be a completely different type of hitter at the major league level. They are who they are at this point, any adjustment would be minor. Which is why I wouldn’t hold my breathe on those Cubs world series dreams. They’re essentially the 90’s Indians.
You’re a little off with that comment, Josh Reddick learned how to walk this season and stopped hacking away at everything and became a totally different hitter than he was the last 3 years.
Earl Weaver won titles that spit on your post.
Ah nothing like a nonsense response that can mean whatever you want it to mean.
I’ll take it you have not argument for my point and move on.
Back on topic though, I bet Cubs open up the wallet and get Price and trade for Ross. Price Arrieta Lester Ross Hammel (or Hendricks but could possibly go in Ross deal).
You don’t get Ross without some serious pain. The only thing helping you is he’s only two years from free agency, but still, you’d have to include your top prospect (whoever that is now) to get the Padres interested. Ross is really good.
Helping me? I’m a Sox fan guy. I didn’t even name any players in a potential deal for Ross. I bet it would take less than Bryant and Russell though. Guys from the next tier of prospects for sure.
I’d say Gleyber Torres would be the headline for the padres in that deal
Utilizing Bryant in the outfield and having a solid defensive right hand hitting option to rotate around the Schwarb, Bryant and Soler, while keeping Baez at 3B Russel at SS and Castro at 2B keeps costs low and certain and no pressure to trade someone with low value. Maddon is whiz at moving players around in positions they can succeed. I wouldn’t give up any young talent at this point, Cubs still aren’t sure how each piece will play out. But this constant chatter to trade someone seems silly with a pitching saturated market and plenty of defensive options that cost reasonable as well.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cubs sign Zobrist to fill that super utility role. He’ll practically start but I’m 80% sure he signs with the cubs and they utilize the remaining players to acquire a pitcher. I have a feeling they become the favorite to win it with 3 moves this offseason. Zobrist, Price, and Gray will be on the Cubs
The Cubs are getting Zobrist, Price and Gray? How are they doing that? Are they signing Price at the expense of retaining Arrieta long-term? Or one of their hitters? And how are they getting Gray? Sonny Gray will cost a lot…like Kris Bryant a lot.
They could probably get Gray for Rizzo, and that deal would make a lot of sense for the Cubs (shifting Swarber to 1B and Bryant to LF) as well as the A’s. You could play Zobrist at 3B or Baez/Castro there as well.
Price made sense over the summer but based on reports out of Toronto resigning is a priority for both Price and the Jays.
Why would the A’s trade Gray for Rizzo? Gray is worth more than that. In a straight-up, player for player deal for Gray, he’s worth Kris Bryant.
I think you are over-valuing Gray and undervaluing Rizzo. Gray is a really great pitcher, but he doesn’t have a long track record and he’s done all of his pitching in a pitcher friendly park.
Rizzo is young, controllable, and has a much more significant track record of success.
Rizzo the last two years has slash lines of. 286/.386/.527 and .278/.387/.512. He’s really their most consistent hitter, and the Cubs have a ton of other young players. It’s possible they trade for Gray, although unlikely, but Rizzo isn’t part of that deal.
I agree but he’s also pretty much the only way they’re getting Gray. Plus it seems Bryant and Scwarber are the future. If you don’t shift them, you really aren’t setting them up for success.
Rizzo only has one year of control longer than Gray, and the biggest reason he’s not enough to get Gray is because Oakland does not have to deal exclusively with Chicago. Plenty of times will pay more than Rizzo. Boston, the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Pirates, etc., would all love to get their hands on a young, cheap ace. Because he’s so affordable contract-wise, his market is not limited to big-money teams. Anyone with the prospects—and the Cubs aren’t the only ones who have them—could negotiate with the A’s. So if the Cubs want Gray…they’ll have to pay a lot more than Rizzo. Rizzo could be a piece of the trade, but it would take Rizzo & more. The only one-for-one comparable the Cubs have is Bryant. Other than that Billy Beane would hang up.
I doubt Oakland, who is looking for a left handed power bat, will find a better offer than Rizzo.
Bryant is not more valuable than Rizzo at this point. Especially with the glaring contact issues that have surfaced in his game.
Starlin Castro & Billy McKinney to ATL for Julio Teheran, Zach Bird, Christian Bethancourt, and Seth Webster
I think you undervalue Teheran in that deal imo but I could see it if the Braves don’t think he can turn it around. Why Bethancourt though? I’d at least want to give Schwarber a chance to catch before finding another C
CBeth still has a lot of promise, but it’s looking like it’ll take a change of scenery for him to fulfill it…maybe in this scenario, CHC would consider throwing Wilson Contreras in the deal
True but if the Braves want to compete, which they have said they do, I doubt they do this unless there are some better prospects coming over and where would Castro play now that I think about it. I doubt they give up on Jace who showed promise
Castro just provdes a little more offensive certainty than Jace, who (outside of a 50 game stretch) looked like a bench player most of the time…CHC will be looking to sell Castro as a versatile infielder instead of just a SS, and could slot right into 2B (IMO).
Plus, even if the Braves do want to compete, I think next year will go a lot like this year. Start out decent, maybe even good, then sell off any legitimate assets at the trade deadline for whatever we can get, and wind up with the 5th-6th pick in the draft (as opposed to the 3rd pick this year).
Gotta use that eye-popping Teheran contract to set up ATL for the future!
Teheran’s deal is a great contract that can and will be better utilized than on Castro. There’s potential that Albies will be up towards the end of this year, next year at the latest and he will take over 2B. We need help in the OF and at C.
I think hart would laugh at you and hang up the phone. try throwing schwarber and a few decent players in there first.
I doubt Schwarber is in that deal but I could see Baez or Almora being included. Schwarber is in that exclusive prospect range now who only gets traded for a franchise altering player aka gray and sale
Schwarber is a one dimensional player. He’s a hitter. That’s it. Did you see his defense against the Mets.
You’re looking at an extremely short sample size and it was his rookie year. He spent most of his time catching in te minor leagues too. If he can learn to just be an average defensive outfield, he’s going to be special because of how great that bat is.
I would be absolutely shocked if the cubs trade schwarber. Defense can be learned, but you can’t teach players to hit like he can. You’ll being seeing statues of him at wrigley in 20 years.
tell Hanley Ramirez that.
The difference is schwarber is 23 and a rookie, while Hanley is 30.
And if he’s traded to an AL team, that’s fine. He’ll be an occasional C who plays mostly DH.
I suppose I did overreach, but JT had a tough year until about mid-July…he would be a tough sell, although Castro is infinitely more expensive and CHC would have to throw in either some extra $$$ or prospects.
Let’s “make a deal” … who all does CHC give back in a deal centered around Teheran, Bird, CBeth & Webster?
Gotta say I don’t see a match here. First because of how the Atlanta FO is realizing that they really alienated the fanbase by trading away so many players that were fan favorites. That should keep Teheran around for the 2017 season.
Second because both teams need outfield help and the next big things coming through each system are very comparable (Mallex Smith & Billy McKinney.)
And third, well I’m sure the Braves would happily trade for Almora, Rondon, or Baez in return for Bird/Bethancourt plus, but I don’t really see that happening unless CHC gets MLB ready players in return(Maybin I’d guess). Atlanta’s at a point where they can trade from their prospect stockpile if need be.
Best bet would be Castro for Beth or Maybin straight up if you ask me. Maybe the Cubs sending some cash and the Braves a prospect along with it.
The Braves just got rid of Gattis for defensive reasons, why would they want his younger(albeit more talented) brother?
They currently have no offense. That’s why.
Castro has negative value and McKinney is in AA. Gotta come stronger than that.
Starlin Castro is garbage. Nay…worse than garbage. He had an OPS+ lower than 83 two of the last three years and is signed to significant money. Nobody is going to value a player with lots of money left and negative offensive production – especially not a guy who is also a terrible defender in the middle of the infield.
If the Cubs manage to trade Castro, it’ll be for another terrible contract. Or they’ll be paying his entire salary and receiving nothing in return.
seems like the cubs have a couple of pitching options in the minors to replace wood and cahill. dont need to pay $8mil for a mop up pitcher and cahill’s luck ran out in the playoffs.
I would have a hard time being the one to give Arrieta whatever Greinke gets.
Yeah that’s a tough sell without another year. He looked like Baltimore Arrieta in the playoffs, with huge control issues. Might want to sit back and make sure. There’s really no benefit to do a deal now.
Am I the only person who looks at this lineup and thinks it can’t sustain success with such a high strikeout rate? If Castro hadn’t gotten himself benched and Schwarber had a full season of ABs, ever regular position player would have had 100+ strikeouts. There is no way a team can manufacture enough runs to consistently win when you give up that many outs on swings and misses. This team reminds me of the 2013 Braves. Everyone hits for power, but everyone is hitting solo homeruns because nobody knows how to get on base ahead of them. That was a young team having a great season, and then the wheels came off in 2014.
The Cubs ranked 5th in the NL in on-base percentage this year. While I’m concerned, as a Cubs fan, about a team completely dependent on the home run ball to score (I’m still a believer in the “productive out”), the notion that the Cubs could only hit solo home runs isn’t exactly true
I think a more accurate description would be that Cubs hitters are mistake hitters. Which is great…you need those. But teams built entirely on them (as opposed to good contact guys) struggle mightily against elite pitching.
Of course I would like to see them trade for a controllable starter (I would love José Quintana), but it may not be exactly feasible. Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, and Castro shouldn’t be traded (Castro needs to at least bounce back first to rebuild his value) IMO, so I would much rather sign a mid-level starter and resign Fowler to stay atop the order. I expect Bryant and Russell to continue to improve offensively, and an upgrade in the rotation and in the bullpen (maybe Tony Sipp) would be a successful offseason in my view.
Nothing is certain in baseball. Guys get hurt, guys regress, players shift teams…The NL is about as weak as it has ever been (they had 6 teams vying for the #1 pick!). If not now, the window could close really fast.
I understand, and I’m not guaranteeing future success or anything. I just don’t believe that it’s necessary to go all-in on David Price if it’ll make it impossible to resign Fowler or Arrieta (when the time comes, I don’t read much into a couple poor postseason starts). I think Fowler is key to giving them an OBP option atop the lineup, and a stabilizing piece in the locker room.
Honestly, I don’t think the Cubs are all that good. They have mistake power hitters in spades, but little else. They advanced to the playoffs in the last wildcard spot on virtue of the National League having its worst collective season since the advent of interleague play/the wild card system. Those teams will get better and it will get harder for the Cubs to win, especially with the team built the way it is.
It’s probably next year or start over.
“it’s probably next year or start over.” They won 97 games starting four rookies in their lineup and made it to the NLCS knocking off two of the best teams in baseball in the process. They have two other young former All-stars under team control for several seasons, plus two former or current All-star starters. Plus a huge pot of money to spend this off-season on another starter. They are in a better position than 95% of the teams in either league, and the idea that they would need to break this core up because they lost to the Mets (and Daniel Murphy’s historic run) in the NLCS is absurd. Rookies tend to get better over time, not worse.
Would any cubs fans be willing to do a swap of Brett Gardner for Starlin Castro? I’m thinking we can acquire Castro to play 2B and then use Refsnyder in a deal to bring back either some starting pitching or strong bullpen arm. Thoughts?
I doubt Castro would be able to pull in Gardner. He really had a bad first half
Gardner really tailed off in the second half.
Works for me. Yanks need a good RHB in their line up and Castro played well at 2B.
Very interesting proposal. I don’t think almora’s the cf of the Cubs’ future, so it is definitely an interesting idea. if Gardner can still play an above average centerfield, I would do that trade.
Wonder if the Cubs could take elsbury of the yanks hands?
I think the Cubs would jump on that.
I think the Yankees would laugh.
Really? I thought it would be a pretty fair deal. I think the money is a wash and the Yankees are getting a pretty young player that could put up decent numbers and is a right-handed bat. He’s also under control until 2020, so I figure that has some value.
I mentioned this early, but Castro had an OPS+ of lower than 83 two of the last three seasons. On top of that he is a terrible defender and can only play positions that require good defense. On top of THAT he has a big money, long term deal.
The Yankees don’t want Castro, and they could do better if they were getting rid of Gardner.
I think the smart move would be to play Castro for 2 months at 2B and shelve Baez at AAA until Castro has proven he’s actually for real now – he had an OPS of nearly 1.000 after moving to 2B – then make a trade based off what happens, there’s 4 ways that could go:
1. Either live with Castro as your 2B and trade Baez.
2. Trade Castro if he’s figured it out and is the real deal and get something good for him in return.
3. Replace Castro with Baez and just use Castro as a UTL guy in case of injury to Addison or Javier.
4. Just trade Castro ASAP to anyone who wants him.
Baez is a good enough athlete to play the OF, including (maybe) CF. Instead of trying to sign Zobrist, Cubs should try Baez in the super utility role. If Castro flops again, then move Baez to 2B.
I don’t understand the fascination of playing bad defenders out of position.
Baez is a great defender, at 2B. The only question here is: Is Castro a .900 – 1.000 OPS hitter now, which is what he was after he was moved to 2B? If he is, then its time to trade Baez to somewhere with an opening at 2B. Baez’s defense is fine, in fact he was called “Uggla with a glove” by many scouts.
He’s fine at 2B. Just fine. Why on earth are you moving him around.
David Price and Sonny Gray are best friends from college, it would be great to see them on the same team again. If the Cubs want to do Gray+Burns+one more piece for Schwarber, McKinney, Baez, Edwards, Happ & Vogelbach, then sign Price and have a rotation of Price-Arrieta-Gray-Lester-Hammel, that would be absurd and definitely battle the Mets for best ro in the game. Both Burns and Gray are basically on minimum wage for another year or so, the Cubs could easily pull that move off financially, if they were willing to break off some of that young depth.
Arrieta-Price-Gray-Lester would be an absurdly expensive front four, no way it could ever happen, but it’s fun to dream of a team having a rotation like that.
Once Gray gets arb, sure, but seems like CHC is the favorite for Price, so adding Gray to that mix isn’t much of a payroll difference.
I just posted how it could happen though. It could quite easily happen if Theo decides that if he’s going to dip into the farm/young star overstock, he’d be hard-pressed to find a better player to dump all those guys on than the cost-controlled and very cheap Gray. He could sign Price and frontload his deal so he gets a little cheaper while the kids get more expensive. Its absolutely do-able, and that my friend, is what is scary about the Cubs.
So with the Cubs minor league talent plus a couple of their major leaguers it’s not out of the realm of the possibility they could end up with a combination of Gray/Teahren/Ross. Price would be welcomed of course. No way would I trade Schwarber. Castro, McKinney, & PTBNL for Teahren. Torres, Underwood, Edwards, Vogelbach, and Coglan for Gray. Schwarber needs to be behind the plate.
Most of you are crazy and think you know way to much with your analytics nonsense. The Cubs are the same team but better then the Royals were a few years ago and look at where they are now. The Cubs to to let the process play out and sign bargain pitchers like the Royals. They already are better off then the Royals when Hosmer Moose Gordon Escobar Cain and Perez came up. Rizzo Bryant Schwarber Russel Baez an Soler are far better at their ages then the for mentioned Royals prospects were. Not to mention that the already have Lester and Arrieta for at least 2 years. The only thing they should be doing is signing a veteran like Zobrist for leadership and a super utility role. Also sign a center fielder either Span (depending on qualifying offer) or Austin Jackson to bat leadoff and play solid defense. Then sign a veteran starter that has been good in the playoffs like Lacky to a 2-3 year contract. Trade Castro for whatever pitching you can get for him. Try and trade Montero to free up some payroll. Sign a veteran catcher that is good with pitchers or trade for one like Navarro. Sign a couple bullpen arms. Good to go for a championship run without mortgaging any of the future. This team has the pieces right now to make a good 10 yr run and the financial flexibly to help. Make your big moves in season when teams fall out of it and are willing to trade players away at a discounted rate, it happens every year.
The big difference between KC and Cubs is that the KC players don’t strike out. They were built that way because of the spacious park they play in. Cubs have more power because they were built for a smaller park. It will be fun to watch them, but could also be frustrating because of the K rate. You are right though. If they get one solid starter, one bullpen piece and find a CF, they don’t need to do anything more. Wait till the season starts and find out what is still missing, then acquire the finishing touches at the trade deadline. no rush.
The ability to make contact in the playoffs is extremely important. Part of me thinks that’s why the cubs trade Baez despite his tremendous upside
I agree, hitting home runs in the playoffs is extremely important. It puts runs on the board and gives teams the lead with one swing, which is all they might get with ace stud pitchers like Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard et al on the mound 😉
Depends on who you’re trying to get. If you look at the Cubs and A’s trade for Shark, that was their top prospect and other peices for 1+ years. If you think you’re going to get someone like Sale or Sonny Gray with 3+ years at a pretty decent rate without giving up something pretty awesome, that’s not realistic.
The Royals pitch, have an elite pen, play elite defense, make contact, and steal bases. They are LITERALLY the exact opposite of the Cubs. You could not have possibly made a more incorrect argument.
You forget that the first couple years of the Royals the hitters were not the same hitters they are now. They developed into the hitters they are now
If I were Theo, I would…
Relax and remain calm. The Cubs are a young team with controllable costs. Don’t “F” it up.
1. Address starting pitching.
a. Trade Castro for James Shields and $27 million to equalize contracts. SD is looking to dump Shields, but the contract is an albtetross. Castro: 16:$7M, 17:$9M, 18:$10M, 19:$11M, 20:$16M club option ($1M buyout). Shields: 16:$21M, 17:$21M, 18:$21M, 19:$16M club option ($2M buyout).
b. Sign Scott Kazmir to a two year deal. His current deal was $11 million per year and won’t cause you to lose a draft pick. Kazmir has history with Maddon.
Staring pitching: Lester, Arrieta, Shields, Kazmir, Hammel/Hendricks
2. Address CF as a short term need. Fowler is going to be too expensive and will want a long term deal. I don’t buy 2015 as his normal production – he overachieved. Ian Happ is the future and is two years away. Look at Rajai Davis and/or Shane Victorino as a stop gap. Both will be relatively cheap and can assume the leadoff role. Personally, I would sign both and have a rotation. Both can also fill in at LF and RF. Neither should cost you a loss of a draft pick.
3. Address bullpen.
a. Resign Cahill and Motte
b. look at: Joakim Soria, Brad Ziegler, Tyler Clippard
Bullpen would be the additions plus:
H. Rondon
T. Wood
P. Strop
J. Motte
T. Cahill
1. Shields has an opt-out clause after next season. Castro does not. The Cubs can sign or trade for a better SP than Shields.
2. Why go after a guy like Kazmir, who wilted down the stretch and has shown he gets into trouble once get goes past 150 IP when there’s literally Greinke and Price or even Zimmermann out there? The Cubs have no money tied up other than Lester, and have literally said they are looking to add this offseason. Their kids are all years away from arby, they could add from the market this offseason, and should, because next years market exists of Strasburg and not much else.
3. Victorino is washed up. The Cubs could turn either of their out-of-position guys in Baez or Schwarber into a pretty good everyday CF. Happ could be 2-4 years away so they need someone longer term. Colby Rasmus might be a look, or even a guy like Kevin Kiermaier, if the Rays go full rebuild. The Yankees are looking to move Brett Gardner too. Marcell Ozuna is another name on the market, although he’s more of a project.
The cubs have some options to play with, I think they are the heavy favorites to sign Price. then they can possibly make a trade for a solid number 2 or 3. Also they need a shut down late inning reliever.
I’d like to see the Cubs trade Vogelbach to the Angels this offseason mainly for international slots
Lock up Arrieta – ace of the staff, sign him now gamble on having him on a good contract, 4yr 90 or 5yr 110 with a player option
Sign Zobrist – R, super utility, veteran, leader, 3yr 24-30 or 4yr 32-40 with club option
Sign Rasmus – L CF, fairly young with some upside and can platoon in the outfield, 3yr 36 or 4yr 48 with club option.
Trade Montero – save 10 mil, trade for prospects or young controllable pitching , Im fairly certain you can get Navarro for cheaper and give Schwarber time at C
Sign Navarro – great with pitchers, veteran, leader, 3yr 18 or 4yr 24 with club option
Sign Raji Davis – R CF, decent center fielder that can platoon with Rasmus, Shwarber, Soler if needed, veteran, 3 year 12
Trade Castro – save 10 mil, trade for young controllable starter, with Russel, Baez he is expendable.
Sign Lackey – R SP – winner, veteran, playoff proven, perfect number 3 behind Arrieta and Lester, 2 yrs 24
Sign Fister – R SP – solid number 4, could be a 2 or a 3, younger then Lackey but not as good right now, potential, 3yr 30 or 4yr 45 with club option
Sign Chris Young – veteran, long relief, spot starter, 2yr 14 or 3yr 21 with club option
Resign Cahill – L RP, pitched well in relief, still relatively young with upside, can start if needed, 2yr 6 or 3yr 9 with club option
Sign Detwiler – L RP, relatively young with upside, can spot start, 2yr 6 or 3yr 9 with club option
Trade Hammel – save 11 mil, trade for pitching prospects
Position players
C – Navarro
1B – Rizzo
2B – Zobrist
SS – Russel
3B – Bryant
LF – Shwarber
CF – Rasmus
RF- Soler
Bn – Baez
Bn – Davis
Bn – Ross
Bn – Coghlan
Starters
1. Arrieta
2. Lester
3. Lackey
4. Fister
5. Young
6. Kendrick
Bullpen
CL – Rondon
SU – Strop
LR – Wood
MR – Cahill
MR – Detwiler
MR – Richard
MR – Grimm
Well , would the cubs rather go after david price or give an extension to arrieta. Or trade prospects for aces like sonny gray or tyson ross.
Cubs fans talking about a deal for Sale…… no. Just no. He’s not the one you (I) want. Jose Quintana is the one you want. Same age, signed to a longer+cheaper deal, and is waaaaay more durable than Sale over the last 3-4 years. Quintana over the last 3 years has been a lock for about 200 IP and a 3.30-3.40 ERA. In the NL he could see that ERA dip to about 2.90-3.10. From what would be their 4th starter, since they are likely to sign Price or Cueto, 200 IP and an ERA right at or a bit above or below 3 would be disgusting.