In the wake of Jose Bautista‘s breakout 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed the right fielder to a five-year, $65MM extension that covered his final year of arbitration eligibility and first four free agent seasons. (It also included a $14MM club option on the 2016 campaign.) This extension generated quite a bit of controversy at the time. An MLBTR poll revealed that over 72 percent of readers polled felt the deal was unwarranted, and several pundits felt the Jays should’ve sold high on Bautista rather than gamble that his out-of-nowhere slugging prowess wouldn’t just as suddenly disappear.
Instead, that extension turned out to be one of Alex Anthopoulos’ canniest moves as Toronto’s general manager. Bautista has averaged a .933 OPS over the last five seasons, and he leads all players with 173 home runs over that same span. Needless to say, that $65MM deal has turned into one of the largest bargains in the sport, and the club’s decision to pick up Bautista’s $14MM option for the coming season was the easiest of no-brainers.
With this track record under his belt (and in the wake of a certain instantly-iconic postseason blast), Bautista has a lot of negotiating power on his side if the Jays want to negotiate an extension this offseason. That being said, there are a large number of factors to consider in this particularly interesting extension case, as if Bautista and the Jays were to reach a new deal, it would very likely set a new contractual precedent.
Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions. Looking at veteran sluggers who have signed big free agent deals in recent years, Bautista has out-performed the likes of Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Carlos Beltran and also lacks major baggage like Cruz’s PED suspension history or the torn ACL that cost Martinez his entire 2012 season. Since V-Mart was limited to DH-only duty and still received a $17MM average annual value, Bautista and agent Jay Alou can certainly make the case that Bautista’s superior hitting numbers and added defensive value deserves a $20MM+ AAV.
It may sound like a big salary for a player in his mid-30’s, yet power is a valuable commodity. Tim Dierkes predicts that five of this winter’s free agents (Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) will all find deals with an AAV north of $20MM per season; add Bautista to that group, and he and Davis topped them all by each posting a 147 wRC+ in 2015. There’s enough interest in Ben Zobrist that he could also conceivably find a four-year deal entering his age-35 season, and while Zobrist far outpaces Bautista in defensive versatility, Bautista is also the far superior hitter. To sum up, if Bautista hit the open market this winter, he’d very likely find a four-year deal in the $80MM-$100MM range.
This is the price tag the Blue Jays will need to approach in order to extend their star. If they’re open to meeting this price, it might be a smart move to tear up Bautista’s 2016 contract and essentially start the extension next season by giving him a raise to at least $20MM and then three more $20MM+ seasons through 2019 (with possibly a vesting option for 2020). Starting a four-year extension in 2017 would mean the Jays are on the hook for a big salary in 2020 when Bautista would be entering his age-40 season. If I’m the Jays, I’d much rather pay Bautista a $20MM+ salary next year than I would for 2020 since the team is obviously much more confident that Bautista will still be a top run producer in the short term.
We’ve already looked at the pros of a Bautista deal, so now let’s focus on the cons. Despite Bautista’s consistency, guaranteeing big money to any slugger in his mid-30’s carries a lot of risk. Of the three veteran free agents I cited earlier, Martinez and Beltran both struggled through injury-plagued down years in the first seasons of their latest contracts. Bautista’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were both shortened by injuries — a bad wrist that required surgery after the 2012 campaign and a bruised hip that led the Jays to shut Bautista down in late 2013.
He also played through a shoulder injury for much of 2015 that didn’t much affect his hitting, though it weakened his usually-strong throwing arm and may have contributed to his subpar defensive metrics (-3 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.5 UZR/150). Bautista’s defensive numbers in right field have fluctuated over the years, though it also wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2015 stats are the first sign of a permanent downswing.
So if the Blue Jays were to extend Bautista, it would be under the assumption that he might only be a couple of seasons away from permanent first base/DH duty. It’s this scenario that poses the biggest question mark to a Bautista extension, as the Jays already have Edwin Encarnacion as a full-time 1B/DH. Encarnacion is also eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, is 26 months younger than Bautista and he’s posted slightly better numbers in some notable stat categories since the start of the 2012 season.
Bautista: 2266 PA, 130 HRs, 355 runs, .261/.377/.522, .387 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 18 fWAR
Encarnacion: 2431 PA, 151 HRs, 352 runs, .274/.371/.549, .391 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 16.3 fWAR
In Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto already has two major salaries on the books for the next four and five years, respectively. Another big long-term commitment will be added if the club extends Josh Donaldson. It’s hard to see the Blue Jays committing over $40MM per season in additional salary through the rest of the 2010’s to two more players, especially two players in their mid-30’s who would be locked into the first base and DH spots.
Unless Bautista or Encarnacion could somehow be talked into another team-friendly deal, the Jays may well have to choose which of the two franchise cornerstones they want to keep in the fold. Encarnacion is younger but Bautista is the better athlete of the two. In terms of pure dollars, Bautista’s age makes him slightly cheaper to extend since Encarnacion would likely push for another guaranteed season or two. Then again, if the Jays are willing to spend big money to retain a slugger, going with the younger option makes more sense if they feel all else is equal or if they feel Encarnacion will age better over the next few years.
Optics will also play a big role in a Bautista extension. The Blue Jays organization already took a PR hit with its revived fanbase this offseason given the awkward nature of Anthopoulos’ departure. It wouldn’t help public perception of new president/CEO Mark Shapiro or the Rogers Commnications ownership group if a new deal couldn’t be worked out with the face of the franchise. Bautista hasn’t been shy about expressing his opinions on the club’s business over the years, and one suspects he would speak up if he doesn’t feel the Jays are making a concerted effort to extend him.
From Bautista’s perspective, an extension would allow him to remain in a familiar spot, keep him playing for a contender if the Jays keep up their 2015 form and, in all likelihood, spend the rest of his career in Toronto. Given all of the factors that will go into Bautista’s extension case, it will fascinating to see if the two sides can reach a new deal or if Bautista will be tossing a bat while wearing another team’s uniform in 2017.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images
I expect Bautista to be elsewhere in 2017. I, personally, would feel more comfortable offering 6/120 to Encarnacion than 4/88 to Bautista, and I think Toronto can only lock up one of the two
“It’s hard to see the Blue Jays committing over $40MM per season in additional salary through the rest of the 2010’s to two more players, especially two players in their mid-30’s who would be locked into the first base and DH spots.”
Definitely agree, and like you alluded to, I believe that they will only sign one of these guys. Just hard to imagine all that money for two guys of that age and the amount of star players already on that team, not to mention if they want to lock up any of their younger guys.
I think both will be gone, with those numbers they can ask for a lot of money and its well deserved; although I wish they stayed in toronto
If I were a Blue Jays fan I would hope at least one of them would want to stay in TOR, and take a relative discount, for basically turning them both into superstars.
Problem is, even though its hindsight Jose and Edwin are on extremely friendly deals already (together they make $24). Even at a discount, The Jays will have Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Jose and EE making a combined $100 Million in about two years. Thats before factoring in raises to youngsters like Stroman
The Jays should sign Chris Davis and let Bautista/Edwin walk after next season. They are getting up there in age and Toronto most likely will regret giving them an extension
The main problem with this is finding a spot to play Davis/Edwin/Bautista/Colabello. That would be four guys for three spots (OF, 1B and DH). Also, in my opinion, Davis is a bit overrated in the sense that he seems to be a boom-or-bust guy (HR or nothing) and while I expect a regression/decline, I do feel Bautista will age better and could almost be like a right-handed David Ortiz.
Colabello is a 32-year-old with 0.5 career rWAR. One of the best teams in the league isn’t planning its offseason moves around ensuring him playing time. I also see them signing Davis.
He has a low WAR because this was his first real year and he’s arb eligible which means he’s cheap. Toronto’s main objective should be the rotation, unless you really see Estrada being the ace of the rotation, not 1b/OF which is a position of strength for them by the way. Toronto can’t even afford to pay Price, so in what world does it make sense to spend money on Davis (again a player where they are already strong) but not on the rotation? They don’t have funds like Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers might have so they have to be smart with their spending.
Are you saying Colabello is arb eligible? He is not and unless he is on the 25 man most of next season he may not qualify until 2018. He will make minimum next season
Colabello actually isn’t even arbitration eligible yet, so he’s cheaper than cheap. And I like him and think he’s a great guy to have on your team but I was just saying that he’s not good enough (or at the very least hasn’t proven hinself to be good enough) to be constructing your offseason plans around him as if he’s a key, locked in piece.
The reason I think they will sign Davis is to avoid an albattoss contract. I’m thinking they would rather pay him $25m for his age 35 and 36 seasons rather than pay Bautista $20-25m for his age 38-39 seasons or Encarnacion $15-20m for his age 37-38 seasons. Kind of like how a lot of people thought Tulowitzki is on a big bad contract, while it actually only goes through his age 35 at $20m per year. Davis will command something less favorable than that, but more favorable than what it will likely take to re-sign their EE and Batts. And I didn’t even mention the fact that in signing Davis they would be buying his several remaining prime years, which they wouldn’t get with the other two.
Another reason I think they’d go for Davis is their very aversion to spending big and long on pitching. A seven year deal for Price is so much riskier than a similar, though cheaper, deal for Davis. Price is a pitcher, he could easily miss a year and a half for surgery and come back a shell of himself. Davis will most likely be able to play a lot of game, knock in a lot of homers, and provide a lot of lineup protection through the end of his next contract.
A lot of times when you look to fill glaring holes you neglect to focus on what got you to where you’re at and what’s good about your team. Dioner Navarro, Brett Lawrie, and Jose Reyes were all arguably above average players at their positions, but the Blue Jays used their resources to upgrade those positions rather signing like James Shields and Ervin Santana to gaudy contracts and it worked out quite well and I don’t think they’re suddenly going to change course.
They could use a lefty though so maybe Scott Kazmir for 3/40. Or Chen (not at the $80m this site has repeatedly projected but if he goes for more what I think he’ll go for, 4/50-5/60.)
Of the two, I think Bautista is the one they should keep. I’m not sold on Encarnacion’s on-base abilities staying with him as he ages. Bautista, on the other hand, has incredible control of the strikezone and can still produce as he ages. While I think Bautista will see a bit of a decline in numbers as his bat speed leaves him, I think the Jays are in better shape if they gamble on Bautista vs Encarnacion.
Who knows? Maybe they both take team friendly deals and stay? Both of them were looking at doomed careers until they ended up in Toronto. Hopefully Jays fans don’t hate Scott Rolen as much anymore.
Couldn’t agree more. I fear that EE will drop off a cliff once his bat speed declines and he’ll end up as Ryan Howard, not David Ortiz. Bautista I think can better adjust with age given his eye and his bat control. I’d rather extend Bats 4 years (total) and keep Donaldson and Tulo around him than EE for 6 years.
As a blue jays fans thats watched almost every game for the last 2 years, I think extending Edwin would be smarter going forward although the fan backlash is definitely going to hurt. We have Dalton Pompey coming up the ranks as a highly touted OF and we dont really have someone to replace EE with. I also do believe that Edwin is more of a threat offensively despite what the numbers say. Would love to have them both extended but im not sure thats possible.
Bautista would be the replacement for EE defensively with Pompey or whomever else taking over OF. Looking long term I think Bats and EE are basically the same position defensively although Bautista might be better suited to cover 3B or RF for a week in a pinch.
I certainly wouldn’t give him that kind of extension. Handing out guaranteed years at top dollar past age 36 almost never ends well.
Here’s what I’d do: Let him play out the last year of his contract. If he’s clearly started to decline but hasn’t fallen off a cliff, try to resign him at the reduced rate his performance deserves. If he keeps up his elite numbers for the most part, try for a hometown discount for at most three years. If he doesn’t take it, let him walk and play his overpriced decline years for someone else.
The Jays are already struggling to meet their 2016 budget, how would it make sense to add $6 million with no added asset?
The Jays will extend qualifying offers to José and Edwin, take two first-round draft picks, and be happy. They will not extend big money to aging stars — despite how good they are now. The fans will understand: they want pitching, pitching, pitching.
that seems to be the smart move to me.
I’d try to sign EE now, as he’s primarily a DH, his salary should be David Ortiz ish, 15-19 million, If he doesn’t well, once he reaches free agency somebody will pay. Jose, this is his final year in Toronto. If the team is out of the race he will be traded, if not, even though he’s In great shape, his defence has fallen off quite noticeably, and it wouldn’t be an overpay for sure. The thing that’s tough is the nostalgia factor, he’s done so much to put the Toronto franchise on the map, so to speak, Toronto got a lot for what they paid, all star appearances, Hank Aaron award, home run derby, etc.
Would be an overpay*
I would keep Bauts: he has the grit of a hockey player which fans up here love the most aboot him.
the either or may not only subtract down to either Mr. Bauts or Encarnacion, but also extend to keeping Tulo or buying in Price, which is thee concern presently.
with travis reportedly not going to be available for the start of next season, Tulo has to play ( c/ Goins at 2b ); so, that may be one of those reasons why there is so much chatter about Price going somewhere other than the Jays.
and that is more of a question than a declarative!
I think the Jays will wait until mid-season and see where things stand. They’ll definitely consider only re-signing 1. There’s a chance that if they’re out of the running for a playoff spot, they trade one or both EE and JBau. However, the more likely scenario is that they keep both and make the decision as they approach the playoffs.
Personally, I think they’ll keep Bautista because he gave them the bat flip, is a bigger locker room presence, and performed best in the playoffs. Bautista is Toronto’s Ortiz for the next 3 years (’18-20) playing a combination of DH and 1B. That would be the best DH the organization has ever had after heading into 2015 with Dioner Navarro in the role, splitting time with Justin Smoak. A slight upgrade? I think so.
And finally, I’d also add that if the Jays can find someone to take on Tulo’s salary, they could send him out along with Colabello for some pitching in return and keep both Edwin and Jose. That’s a real possibility. Having those 2 together another 3 years would provide Shapiro some time to put his stamp on the team, because we all know he’s not going to do it through the draft. He may have the worst draft track record ever.
I am interested in learning how Shapiro works: for instance, will he, in about a dozen days, go after any of those unprotected lhp power arm prospects to fill in the current 35 man roster? with Chavez replacing Buehrle and possibly no Price, the jays will need more than Cecil and Loup in that BP.
Beane trading Donaldson with so much control left really allows the Blue Jays to be flexible with 1 of these guys, and still be able to extend Donaldson when the time comes, one of the worst trades in recent memory.
“Starting a four-year extension in 2017 would mean the Jays are on the hook for a big salary in 2020 when Bautista would be entering his age-40 season.”
This is not true. As you say, he will be playing this upcoming season, 2016, at age 35. That means he will play 2020 at 39. See how the one-digit is one less in his age than in the corresponding year.
I also think it’s not very thorough to neglect to mention the draft pick they would be sacrificing by extending him rather than having him play out this season then extending him a qualifying offer.
“Bautista and agent Jay Alou can certainly make the case that Bautista’s superior hitting numbers and added defensive value deserves a $20MM+ AAV.”
Bautista doesn’t have defensive value, at least not in RF. His range has declined and he isn’t even near average now. (2015 UZR/150 was -12.5). His bat does more than makes up for his defensive liabilities.
4 yr/low 80’s for me. I can only see a (slow) decline in his numbers at his age and that would be some pretty fair coin to finish out your career.
Bautista has been worth $38, $61, $19, $31, $48, and $36MM since 2010 per fangraphs. Plus any value from marketing he provides. He doesn’t have to maintain his current performance to be worth $20MM a year. He could provide enough excess return in 2016 and 2017 to make a 4 year $80MM deal worthwhile, not to mention the Jays are clearly in a win-now mode.
Many say that they would keep Bautista but I’m sure your saying that as a fan because he is more outgoing but EE should get the extension. You talk about bat speed, with Bautista stance he is more likely to suffer more from bat speed than Edwin. EE has more of acompact swing plus he is younger and has played mostly DH so he’s good
Bautista would end up moving to DH if EE was let go. To be honest I can’t really speak to their swings since I haven’t watched them much but outside of potential bat speed and age, I think Bautista would provide more value in the fact that he could play in the field every so often, and at different positions (mainly RF and 1B) whereas EE would mainly be limited to 1B
With all due respect to the author, I’d love to be an agent if you were the GM. You already have Bautista under contract for next season @ $14 million, and you want to tear the contract up AND give him a $6 million raise AND add 3 more years @ $20 million per……..man, where do I sign?
There is no way I extend Bautista given his age and injury history. Let him play out the season, then decide if you want to re-sign him. If you get out bid…..stuff happens.
I am a Cardinal fan. The best move the Cardinals have made in the last 5 years was letting Albert Pujols walk. Tough at the time, no regrets at all now. Also as a Cardinal fan, I’ve had to watch the sudden onset decline of Matt Holiday over the last 2 seasons. He’s the same age as Bautista, and some could argue, a better “pure” hitter than Bautista, minus the gaudy HR totals. Until last year Holiday had never had a serious injury and he ended up missing most of the season.
Long story short…..why extend Bautista at all when you can still sign him as a FA AFTER this season?
The guy’s a Juicer !
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