As we recently outlined in our offseason outlook series, the Cubs are in a fantastic financial position. With the exception of Jon Lester, the best players on their roster are either club controlled or on a team friendly extensions. In fact, only three players (besides Lester) are on substantial, market-rate contracts – Miguel Montero, Jason Hammel, and Starlin Castro.
Castro’s name stands out like a sore thumb. The 25-year-old has six years of major league experience and 11.3 career WAR. He was supposed to be a long-term cog for Chicago, but now the Cubs have a roster crunch in the middle infield. Addison Russell has firmly claimed the starting shortstop job. Next season, second base will likely belong to one of Castro or Javier Baez with Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella providing depth.
Given the available internal depth, it’s widely assumed that the Cubs will shop Castro this winter. But what can they get in return? While Castro is young, he’s inked to a four-year, $38MM contract. If he was a free agent, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Castro could sign for those same four-years and $38MM – if not more. However, he’s hurt his stock significantly with recent struggles.
Castro has looked like two different players throughout his career. In 2013 and 2015, he barely outperformed replacement level. In 2011, 2012, and 2014, he produced three WAR seasons. Overall, he’s a slightly below average defender at shortstop with inconsistent offense.
Which player is he – the above average shortstop or the replacement level depth guy? He’s probably both. Offensively, he’s a slightly aggressive hitter with decent but modest pop (10 to 14 home runs in each of the last five seasons). He keeps his strikeouts to a minimum, but he also doesn’t walk.
Without serious power or on base skills, he leans heavily on a high average to provide value. In his best seasons, he posted a .315 or better BABIP with a league average line drive rate. In his two worst years, his line drive rate dropped while his ground ball rate increased. That could indicate any number of mechanical, mental, or preparation-related issues.
Whoever employs him next season should probably plan to take the good with the bad. At worst, he probably won’t embarrass your club. At best, he’s a solid core performer. But what is that worth? We know consistency can be important to major league clubs. Building a contender depends upon managing both floor and ceiling. Castro’s inconsistency is point against him.
For argument’s sake, let’s say he projects as a two-win player. Teams pay about $12MM to $16MM per season for two-win players. With those assumptions, he’s worth anywhere from $10MM to $26MM more than his current contract (we could get more complicated with the model too). If that’s the case, the Cubs should find somebody willing to offer a relatively high profile prospect. A true top prospect is definitely off the table. Although there isn’t a fit with the Rangers, I could see somebody like Chi Chi Gonzalez as a match in value.
However, we could easily build a lower projection and hence a lower surplus value. Most models usually assume that players will decline pretty consistently from year-to-year, even when they’re young like Castro. Breakouts happen but injuries and other factors tend to sap talent more reliably.
Deciding upon the projection is the hard part. If the Cubs mean to trade Castro, they will have to shop around to find which teams have the rosiest outlook. As you might expect, there aren’t any comparable trades to reference. Young players who sign seemingly team-friendly extensions usually stay with their club until late in the contract. When they’re discarded, it’s usually because they’ve completely cratered.
We’re left to guess how rival clubs may view Castro. Will they see upside related to his youth? Is he valuable due to his position and potential for above average production? Can opposing GMs exploit the Cubs roster crunch by playing coy? These are just some of the factors to consider as you answer today’s poll.
They should keep Castro at 2nd, get something for Baez. For reasons indicated above, Castro is prbly worth more to the Cubs than what they could get by trading him.
Hmmm. I disagree. People always undervalue what players are worth, especially young players. Worst case scenario is castro will be paid market value the remainder of his contract. It’s more likely though he outperforms that contact…… which ups the value. Not to mention he plays at a relatively weak offensive output position, so even if he has what is a mediocre season for him, about .270, .320 obp, and 10+ hrs… that’s still stellar for a SS. he wasn’t far from those numbers this year despite all the talk and drama created around him so if this was his worst….. his value is pretty high I’d say. If they don’t move castro (which I think they will) they’ll keep all 3; Russell, castro, and baez. I just don’t see why they’d give up baez after he showed significant improvement this year. What I think….. castro is the opening day 2Bman. Baez will be super platoon guy playing games at 3b, ss, and 2B whenever possible…….. for the first half of the season. If castro is hithing more castro-like which is around .300 they trade him and get a haul at the deadline. If he’s 2015 castro and hitting about .245 at the deadline…… they trade him and get what they can get, which would be just about what his value is now….. slightly positive. Personally, a baseball team on the south side has a decent amount of pitching prospects and are rumored to have samardzija, quintana, and maybe sale on the block and are looking for some young bats. I’m willing to bet they’d take castro, vogelbach, and Almora for Quintana. If that’s the case the Cubs should definitely take it. Cubs get a more than solid #4 starter (assuming they sign a $$$ FA pitching) in quintana and the Sox would be being 3 bats that could be HUGE offensively and defensively in the case of almora. Vogelbach has a physique and capability to be just as good as schwarber, but he plays 1B ONLY and is blocked by rizzo. With the Sox he can play 1B and Abreu can DH and vice versa. Almora is projected to be a solid hitter who should develop 15+ hr power. He doesn’t get on base and hasn’t shown speed on the base paths but his defense is stellar in CF. “Experts” protect his ceiling at about .280-.290 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, 15-20 HRs, and maybe 10-20 SBs. Personally I’m not high on him, but he’s highly touted across the major leagues so those 3 players should get the deal done. Then the Cubs first 4 in the rotation would/could possibly be Price/Cueto/Zimmermann, Arrieta, Lester, and Quintana….. that is 4 dudes who will/could have ERAs hover around 3.00….. WS worthy.
Vogelbach has terrible numbers. He’s not a good trade chip. He’s terrible at 1st base too. He had bad numbers at Kane County and he’s not even close to Schwarber.
Is Matt Kemp to a lesser extent a good comp? He has value. If you include some money, you can get a decent player (Grandal), a quality B-level prospect (Eflin) and an AAAA arm (Wieland).
Maybe something like Shoemaker and Gott for Castro plus cash?
Angels didn’t get a ton at 2B, are losing Freese and only have one year left of Aybar.
If the Angels want an inconsistent player they could just pull someone up from the minors. Wouldn’t touch Castro with a ten foot pole. Attitude sucks. Wouldn’t sell low on Shoemaker, and certainly wouldn’t want to give up the hard throwing Gott with the years of control left for him.
Not sure where you’re getting “attitude sucks” from. The guy has been a team-first player, and handled a midseason benching and eventual move to 2b beautifully this year
Clearly you don’t know anything about the cubs.. His attitude sucks? Joe Maddon said he was the best team player he has ever coached and that he took his benching with class and ended up starting at 2nd because he didn’t sit and sulk
How could you say attitude he Castro has one of the best in all of MLB since he lost his SS job he lost that cause he is slow as a snell but can truly hit at 25 already has more hits than Any 2B in the modern era the last 20 years .So why would Cubs trade him when Baez can play 3b and Bryant can play LF and some 3B. In 2 years Little Babe aka Schwaber will compete with Contrase
Matt Kemp has negative trade value. That’s why the Dodgers had to kick in $32M to trade him and net Grandal, and even then it’s been a heist for the Dodgers.
not really because a) Kemp was considerably better in his prime but everyone knew that was behind him and b) the Padres got fleeced and everybody knew it when it happened.
Nope, the main reason being the Angels are really high on Gott. They could have traded him straight up for Ben Revere at the deadline and declined. Also, Castro wouldn’t really fit into the Angels plans in 2016 unless he could play 3B. Aybar and Giavotella have the middle infield covered for one more year.
Giavotella can’t hit, so while I’m not sure Castro is the answer, they will certainly be looking for MI help.
Why does everybody say Giavotella can’t hit? His OPS was okay this year, and he was the only source of life in that dugout. In fact, if you want to talk about people who can’t hit, good old Aybar had an OPS in the 630s this year.
Do you think Castro could make sense for the Mariners as a left fielder? He is decently athletic. Trade Paxton for him if the cubs eat a little salary. Sign a mid range pitcher. If no other moves made( hoping for Parra on a 3 year deal to be our right fielder) our lineup would be
1. SS Marte
2 3B Seager
3. DH Cruz
4. 2B Cano
5. 1B Trumbo
6. RF Smith
7. LF Castro
8. CF Miller
9. C ????
Below level defense and inconsistent offense? That doesn’t cost much in the free agent market. Certainly not $9.5M a year. Would have to include some serious cash in any deal.
His defense isn’t that bad. Yes he makes dumb errors, but he also has great range which saves a ton of runs. JJ Hardy is up for a GG this year despite his defensive runs saved being only like 2 runs higher than castro’s. He’ll hit like 5-7 more home runs but he usually has a low BA and an even worse OBP……. he’s owed 26 million over the next 2 years by the Orioles and is like 7 years older than castro. So I don’t know how much worse you’d settle for than castro and his 9.5 mil because it would have to be a minor leaguer more than likely. And if your team doesn’t have a viable SS prospect castro is looking mighty valuable.
Jhoney Peralta isn’t a good fielder and isn’t much better…. if better than castro at the plate and he’s owed 11.5 mil over the next 2 years.
His value partly relies on his youth… People forget that he’s 26 and still yet to enter his prime.
It’s easy to forget that when the player is regressing offensively and hasn’t improved at all defensively. It’s not like he’s a prospect anymore. At this point, he’s in the “how many years until he’s out of the league” conversation.
Players’ “primes” isn’t necessarily in that 27-29 age frame. That’s only the average, and quite a few peak in their mid or even early 20’s. And a few in their 30’s. Given how many PA’s and innings Castro has played in the big leagues, I’d put a fair amount of money on us having seen his best already. Not least because defense, which is already a weakness for him, always declines.
In one sentence this author claims Castro is “…slightly below average…” and in the very next sentence claims that he is “…above average…”
Without speaking for Brad, I believe that:
1) the first reference is specifically to defense
2) the second reference is to his overall abilities as a shortstop, and doesn’t claim he is anything — it poses a question to the reader
His contract value is too high IMO for a nice trade return.
Why not trade for a cheaper guy for the same prospect or just sign a free agent without giving up prospects? He offers no advantage v. a free agent.
This. Castro isn’t without value as a player. But the problem is that there are dozens of similar guys around. Some FA’s, some available for next to nothing in trade, some blocked in AAA. All are much, much cheaper than Castro, and many teams have 1 or 2 sitting around already.
Trade value is largely a function of how many teams are in need of a SS upgrade; Padres for example.
Except he’s lower than replacement level defensively at short.
Starlin, like Elvis Andrus, does not seem to be one of those players who responded well when getting a new contract. Both prized SS prospects have been disappointing since signing the new deals, although the Andrus deal is FAR worse than Castro’s. (Andres is owed more than 100-million dollars. He can opt out in two years but if he’s performing as he is right now, he would be a fool to do so.) Trading for Kemp or some other dead weight contract is something the Cubs don’t need. They are young and if the Cubs feel it best, send Castro out for a mid-range pitching or catching prospect. You can’t have enough of those!
I don’t think it’s their response to the contract as it is bad scouting by the teams that gave them the deals. Neither player is talented enough to have been given their deals, and their production since then has been proof of that.
83 or lower OPS+ at the plate two of the last three years with bad defensive at defensive positions.
His value is negative. With that contract, his value is super negative. You’d have to find a club not paying attention in order to move him. He’s not good, and it’s pretty much proven at this point.
I think that Baez thinks that his triple AAA & injury time counts as the Major league time, trade him!
I love the comments with this type of post. If it isn’t the person replying’s favorite team, this type of player gets the “No value at all whatsoever” but if it were a guy on their team, they would be saying exactly what Cubs fans are saying.
Being a Cubs fan, I do agree that his value is very low as it sits currently. He did show some promise after starting at 2nd but that won’t suddenly make his value sky rocket. Any trade right now would be a bad contract for bad contract swap. No type of trade (no matter how much cash Cubs kick in) with money included would net the Cubs any type of value that it would be worth trading him for right now. Again, he did play decent at 2nd base. At this point it’s more worth seeing how that plays out and if he starts putting something together, see if a trade makes sense.
Overvaluing of players is a problem shared by most fan-bases, yes. But none more egregious than the Cubs fans, IMO.
Castro is likely a case in point. He’s a horrible fielder who has gotten worse over the years. His bat has regressed to the point that more often than not he is below replacement level. And remember, replacement level is not average. Replacement level is what you expect from a backup. He is worse than a backup more often than not. He was worse than replacement this year.
Castro “earned” a huge contract because of some solid seasons aided by unsustainably high BABIPs. It is not a surprise that the BABIP came down to reality and that Castro wasn’t actually a quality player. His contract was more a mistake by the scouts in the Cubs organization than anything else. The truth is with his production and defense, that contract is the only thing that keeps him in the major leagues. Otherwise, he’d be lucky to get a camp invite from a desperate team. The talent just isn’t there.
I love how everyone is glossing over the fact that Castro WAS benched this year, and it was mostly due to performance. Take out an extremely hot September, what was Castro’s stats for the first five months? i think Cubs fans might be overvaluing Castro at this point in his career, I don’t think a 0.6 WAR at a multi million salary garners much trade value.
Personally if the cubs front office is half of the rays front office, they wont get enough. I say keep him or trade him to a “generous” team. Maybe make him A 3rd base?
Until they know what they have in Baez and LaStella, trading Castro now is just silly. Yes its SOP in other orgs, but Theo and company have been all about trying to do this right from the beginning and selling low on Baez or Castro now just because of some perceived back up on PAPER is being way to hasty, he should not be traded and as such his trade value is a mute point with myself. I’m the party pooper, but enjoy!
But they do know what they have in Castro is barely above replacement level. His batand glove can easily be replaced by Baez,LaStella,Coghlan,Alcantara and soon to the mix Torres.