TUESDAY, 9:23am: It’s possible that a deal could be reached by the end of today, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. The deal with the Cardinals is expected to be in the five-year, $75MM range and could include an option, a source tells Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (on Twitter).
The Cardinals gave Leake a strong offer last week and have been waiting for a resolution, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. Multiple sources also tell him that a deal is getting close.
8:50am: The Cardinals and Leake are close to agreement on a deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
MONDAY, 10:45pm: Leake is aiming for a five-year deal, per Cotillo (Twitter link).
10:10pm: There’s a “growing belief” that free agent Mike Leake will be signing somewhere very soon, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The Cardinals, he adds, appear to be a strong contender for his services.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams profiled Leake recently, explaining that his market appeal lies in a combination of age, health, the lack of a qualifying offer, and solid production. Both Adams and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes have predicted five-year, $80MM contract for Leake, placing him among the 15 or so free agents with the greatest expected earning power.
Recently, the Dodgers were mentioned as a possibility for Leake after their agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma was 86’d. It’s not clear if the Astros have had substantive talks with Leake’s reps, but they do appear to be a fit for a veteran starter like Leake. Leake reportedly was ready to give a hometown discount to the D’Backs, but Tony La Russa recently called that match “probably unlikely” to happen. The Cardinals have been a logical landing spot for Leake all winter long, but some speculated that his asking price could be too rich for their blood.
In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA. That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings. All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate. Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.
Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career. He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August. He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.
However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.
Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.
No. Don’t do it, Mo.
I’m buying Peralta’s -6.9 UZR/150 as a sign of things to come. Leake needs strong defense behind him. For this kind of coin, better to spend the $ elsewhere.
Where else would they spend the money? Seriously, after losing out on a lot, they at least need a quality source of innings for the years to come, and Leake, only being 28, is a lot better of a contract than with someone who is in their mid 30s. He played most of his career in GABP, which is hitter friendly, and if he goes to Busch, which is a pitcher friendly park, no telling how much he can improve.
They need someone who is not a radical risk, and who is young enough for it not to be a disastrous contract if things go south. Signing him will also allow for them to keep all three draft picks they have between the 1st Round, and the two compensation picks.
He is groundball pitcher. Groundball pitchers can succeed pretty much anywhere that isn’t Coors field. A GB pitcher needs good defense behind him and based on stats in 2015, the Cardinals had one of the worst infields in baseball.
in 2015, Wong put up average numbers at 2B while Carpenter and Peralta were awful at 3B and SS respectively. Wong still has time to grow and improve but the same is highly unlikely for Peralta. There is enough of a sample size with Carpenter that we can call him an average defender at best.
Now you want a groundball pitcher to try and work with that? Little scary and a little suspect. A really strong (and lucky) start to the season and finishing 7th in the NL in Ks played a huge role in us being where we were in 2015. xFIP pegged us nearly a full run higher than our staff ERA.
After this offseason losing out on Price (I don’t count us losing out on Heyward – I think his mind was made up that he wasn’t coming back), I’m very worried about the outlook of this team in 2016.
Peralta wasn’t horrible. In fact, this year he was average at worst, and previous seasons, above average. Even so, it’s not as if he’ll be throwing balls over the First Baseman’s head or bobbling the ball. I’ll give you Carpenter, he isn’t Arenado. And if Wong put’s consistency in his fielding, he is a potential Gold Glover. Sometimes I feel as if people put too much stock into groundball v. flyball pitchers. It’s up to the pitching staff to take his repertoire and mechanics, and make him the best pitcher he can be. Leake can change where he locates the ball, and what pitch he throws at which location, and that can change his entire ‘mold’ as a pitcher. With Molina behind the plate, he also is going to have a great framer and receiver.
I just think that there is way more positive change going to Busch, than there would be negative. Like I said: Young pitcher, can come to a great pitching staff, going to a better ballpark, not tied to a draft pick. If the Cardinals are spending on anybody, Leake is a safer bet than anyone else on the market. Kazmir is starting to get into his mid-3os, Kenta Maeda has never thrown an MLB game, Ian Kennedy is tied to a draft pick and his one of the riskier pitchers on the FA market. And the trade market will command way too much for a reliable Starting Pitcher.
Just saying, for what the Cardinals need, to compete in 2016 and beyond, who is a better option as of now to replace the innings of Lynn, while still relatively young and cheaper than other players on the market?
My personal opinion but I think Doug Fister was a poster boy of
his numbers getting better with better defense behind him.
Kazmir is 31….not exactly mid 30’s. He’s only seeking a 3 year deal in the $12-13M range. His contract would be up by the time he’s in his mid 30’s. He’s also a better pitcher than Leake. Similar ERA, lower FIP, walks a few more, strikes out a lot more. And he’s done that while pitching in the AL his entire career.
Pfft, never rely on a single year of a single metric, especially a defensive metric. Wong, Peralta, and Carpenter are all known to be average to above-average fielders. Adams over at 1B, too.
wong isn’t known as an above average defender, peralta is getting older and was always an average defender at short that made all the plays but had no range, carpenter is average, matt adams as well, none of those are above average.
Peralta was well above average for 4 straight years. Just because he doesn’t look
Maybe get Kazmir instead. He’ll be cheaper AAV wise and get less years. He’s a few years older but also a better pitcher.
You two fellas know what you’re talking about, so I’d like both your opinions on possibly pursuing Gordon or Upton coupled with signing Leake (If it’s the birds). Upton to me seems a natural fit. He’s played RF and hits for consistent and decent power. He strikes out a bit and his defense isn’t spectacular, but next year’s F/A is not that great. Anyways. Your thoughts on Gordon and Upton, please.
I’m not them, but I have a feeling that they will try and avoid a signing that is tied to a draft pick. 3 picks around the 1st and 2nd round could be the future core that replaces Yadi, Peralta, Waino, etc. Just my prediction although I wouldn’t be against signing Gordon or Upton.
Perhaps, although it’s not a team policy. Keep in mind that they’d only be giving up the 30th pick (well, a few earlier after accounting for other lost picks), yet they’ll still have two compensation picks soon after that.
Besides, if they want to avoid losing that draft pick, there’s always Cespedes.
This is dead on correct. The Cardinal model is to acquire extra draft picks, not give them up. This year’s draft class is fairly deep in some aspects. The Cardinals will not give up a pick for any FA sign.
This is why they went after Price and not Greinke. Greinke had a qualifying offer. Price was traded during the year and no forfeit of 1st round pick required to sign him. The Cardinals will pass on Gordon and Upton. Think Gerardo Parra or Denard Span as 4th outfielder to shore up CF. (Grichuk is injured again)
Leake makes sense here.
Agreed. Acquiring draft picks is the Cardinal model. Not giving them up. This is why the went after Price and not Greinke. Signing Price did not require forfeit of their 1st round pick. It is also why the won’t sign Gordon or Upton.
Leake makes sense here. Depended is possible only if Holliday really does move to 1B. Expect Gerardo Parra or Denard Span signing as 4th OF to shore up CF. I believe Grichuk is down now with sports hernia.
the Cards really do need to sign a solid pitcher. Even with Waino coming back, the Cards have to replace Lynn and Lackey in the rotation. Remember Waino, Garcia, Wacha, Martinez and Gonzales all have injury risks. I think a solid #3 like Leake, Kazmir, or Chen would be a well advised move. I know the Cards have been talking with Tampa Bay about a pitcher, but I’m afraid the acquisition cost will be exorbitant.
Leake is a bargain at 80 M for 5 years. He is a ground ball machine. I wish we (GIANTS) had kept him. Still can’t figure out why he’s not on the roster. We never even saw him at his best
Instead we paid 10 million more for Smardjzima hoping he can turn things around. From Leake we could’ve just hopes for more of the same…
D-Backs need to pull their collective snake heads out of their gluteus maximus hole and sign that boy Mikey Leake. Why wouldn’t they? They wanna show their nuts and dump money like they have it than they should be smart about doing so; he said he’d give y’all a hometown discount! You unloaded the farm system to compete for the next few years and your ballpark is literally built for for a ground ball pitcher considering anything hit in the air transforms it into a poor man’s Coors Field. So don’t be stupid. Don’t transform your team to the new
Miller-Greinke-3 days of stinky. This coming from a hardcore Giants fan.
Haha!!! Miller-Greinke-3 days of stinky might be my new team name in fantasy baseball. That is brilliant!
Go Giants!
I’m here all week daddio, try the veil lol
The grammar made this thread hilarious as the Dbacks pulled some genitals out and ate a bridal attachment.
Corbin>>>>Miller. So it would be Greinke, Corbin, Miller, two days of stinky. And Ray is fine too.
Apologies. I had forgotten about Patrick Corbin. He’s a stud too, but I think a lot of people undervalue Shelby Miller, I think he’s a great right handed arm.
AZ also has Corbin and Ray…who had ERA/FIPs of 3.60/3.35 and 3.52/3.53. So did that make SF’s 2015 rotation Bumgarner and 4 days of stinky? And their 2016 rotation Bumgarner, Cueto, and 3 days of stinky? Samardjiza falls in the stinky category
You took it way too far bro
We need this. Very much. If it rolls in the area of 5/80, I’m digging it. The article states it perfectly. 28 yrs. old, decent production, averages 211 IP per year, and no draft pick compensation. Would be a solid move. Wainwright, Wacha, Martinez, Leake, and Garcia (until he’s injured) then Gonzalez or Lyons. It’s a step in the right direction.
I’m ok with signing Leake but i’d rather have Odirizzi if they don’t want the farm for him. Leake’s solid, and his ERA will, or should anyway, go down since he’s not pitching as many games in a hitter’s park.
Still need to sign a big bat though.
I’m sure they wanted a nice package for him. Let’s face it though. This farm system isn’t exactly what it was a few years ago. It would make perfect sense to move on from the Tampa talks and sign Leake. It wouldn’t be a blockbuster signing by any stretch, but it’s a solid move. Couldn’t agree more with the bat need. I wonder how the market is going to shape up for Upton? If it took something like 7/140, I would at least hope Mo kicks the tires. His bat is better than any upcoming F/A next year.
He’s fairly young as well.
Well, looks like we got Leake, pending a physical. A decent sign, looks like 5/75. So, now we’ve upgraded at backup catcher, upgraded at backup infielder, added some starting pitching depth,, so now it’s time to go get a power bat. I still like the thought of either Davis or Cespedes, but either would mean, it seems, that someone has to be moved. Davis makes the most sense don’t it? That way you don’t have to worry about what to do with Holliday, Piscotty can man right field, and you don’t have a defensive issue at 1st with Holliday. Davis is a good defender.
What the article doesnt mention is that leake is a good hitting pitcher as well. Thats not a huge deal but it helps. Our pitchers are probably the worst hitting pitchers in the nl. A good bargain. Would still leave money for improvents or trade deadline moves
Hey, Wainwright is a good hitting pitcher.
I’d love to see them sign Leake and maybe Kazmir and go to a 6 man rotation to lower the innings on all these injury prone and young arms. Perhaps being fresh in the playoffs helps get them deeper.
Angels makes the most sense, where they will then wheel one of their present mid to lower rotation young arms on a trade – Skaggs, Santiago, or Shoemaker – for the OF. CarGo possible
the angels do make sense, but Arte refuses to go over the luxury tax
Shame the Pirates can’t afford him because he fits almost everything they look for in a pitcher–pitch control (low walk rate), high groundball rate, multiple pitches, still young. Only thing he really lacks is high velocity, but with the defense behind him and emphasis on shifting it wouldn’t matter as much.
Plus the fact that he can handle the bat and that if he was pitching FOR the Pirates he couldn’t destroy the Buccos each time he faced them.
Boston signs him.
Five years – $75M.
Opt-out clause after third season.
Would be mind blowing and fun^^
consistent mediocrity = 80 million plus.
A GM who gives up a draft pick and 80 million to sign Mike Leake better have good job security.
Leake won’t cost a draft pick
Leake doesn’t cost a draft pick.
Yankees? Royals?
Are the Cardinals going to come in 2nd again and continuously whine about it?
Are you going to keep making up that the Cardinals whined about anything?
There’s nothing to make up.
If youre referring to the Heyward Comment thing, it was way overblown and Matheny was defending his team as he should. An manager would fire back if they were talking down about a team they just played for.
How exactly did they “whine”? Matheny was just defending his ball club from Heyward’s somewhat unfair comment.
noooooooooooooooooooo
Cards need a pitcher more than an outfielder I think at this point. Piscotty, Grichuk and Holiday are all capable everyday players if they stay healthy and the front office had to think OF was an area of relative strength if they were willing to trade Jay for Gyorko. As a Pirates fan, for the first time in who knows how many years, the Cards’ rotation doesn’t scare the bejeezus out of me. Partly due to Bucs having a legit lineup but mostly because Lynn is a huge loss, not just in talent but the guy ate tons of innings too, Wainwright is still Wainwright but getting older and coming off injury and Wacha and Martinez are both excellent but their arms faded down the stretch. Go get Leake, stability in the rotation has been the Cards’ calling card lately and right now its as shaky as it has been in recent memory
Frustrated Dodger fan here – seems like all attempts at getting arms are backfiring (and strengthening NL competition). Thinking maybe we need to go really outside the box – three names that I keep on thinking about are Shields, Kennedy and Lincecum.
The dodgers are sitting and doing nothing
Great feedback as usual. Nice to have an interesting and educated commentary.
Leake can eat some innings, and that is what we need with Lynn out, Lackey gone, and the questions that surround Heime.
Pitchers should not be allowed to wear single digit numbers. It’s just odd looking. Leake is gonna have #8. He could have paid the cardinal player that had #44 or choose #13