Month: July 2016

We waited to update MLBTR’s top trade candidate series for a bit, in recognition of the All-Star break lull. But things are starting to pick up quite a bit, and there’s plenty of change afoot as the list doubles in size from the most recent iteration. Drew Pomeranz, who sat in 13th position in our last list, was shipped in the biggest mid-season deal thus far. There are several other notable factors influencing the ranking you’ll see below; in particular, we’re now considering teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Royals, and Mariners as plausible sellers with the deadline nearing. None are fully committed in either direction as of yet, but there’s less time now for a dramatic change of fortune before August 1st.

Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

On to the ranking:

1. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Yankees — Though the Yanks are still in reasonable range for contention, word is that they’re readying to deal Chapman. The Cuban Missile promises to be a powerful weapon for whoever acquires him, with many of the best teams in baseball lining up for that chance — reportedly including the Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, and Giants.

2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — The Indians are said to have opened talks on Lucroy after losing Yan Gomes and receiving bad news on Michael Brantley‘s health, and the Rangers are also seemingly kicking around the idea of a move. Though it’s not certain he’ll be dealt, Lucroy still has the best blend of trade likelihood and value — he’s a top player at a premium defensive position who is playing on a super-cheap deal with control remaining.

3. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Extension talks seem to be going nowhere, so it’s probably time for the veteran to be shipped out of Oakland. Having resumed his solid form at the plate since returning from the DL, he’s the best all-around rental outfielder available. The Cubs are among the teams said to be looking at Reddick.

4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — Bruce’s previous placement at the top of this list was driven largely by the fact that he was so obviously available. With the picture now more clear in other areas, and Bruce cooling off of late, he’s sliding a bit.

5. Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres — It seems all but certain that Cashner will be traded; indeed, there was buzz that he’d be gone before his last start. After turning in two quality outings, rivals organizations might be more willing to take a chance on the up-and-down righty.

6. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — It’s hard to place Hill, who has been unbelievable all year but has dealt with two seemingly minor but nagging injuries. The most recent one is a blister that hasn’t healed enough to allow him to get back in the rotation. Hill can still be traded even if he isn’t able to make it back before the deadline, but that possibility only makes his already hard-to-gauge value all the more uncertain.

7. Carlos Beltran, OF, Yankees — Beltran is another Yankee who’s tough to place, albeit for slightly different reasons. We haven’t heard a ton of chatter on the veteran, who is hitting at near-peak rates at 39 years of age. He’s a pure rental who is eligible for free agency this winter.

8. Steve Pearce, IF/OF, Rays — Pearce is matching his 2014 breakout with a .322/.393/.552 slash. He has also been hurt, which has been an issue in the past, but with a meager $4.75MM salary for the season he’d be quite an affordable addition. He isn’t a great defender, but Pearce has proven capable of playing first, second, and the corner outfield, so he could provide plenty of plate appearances to the right organization.

9. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi has been far from dominant — he owns a 4.39 ERA in 110 2/3 innings — but he’s steady, young, cheap, and controlled for three more seasons. He still seems the most likely Rays pitcher to change hands.

10. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — It has been a very strong campaign for the 29-year-old, who carries a 3.84 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 119 2/3 frames. It’s exactly what the Phils were hoping for when they added him over the winter, as he has been a nice stabilizing force and now looks like a solid trade piece in a market that doesn’t feature many useful rental starters.

11. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — Teams prioritizing steadiness and durability will likely zero in on Santana, who’s a good bet to provide some reliable innings down the stretch and over the rest of his contract.

12. Matt Moore, SP, Rays — If, instead, you’d rather roll the dice on upside, then perhaps Moore is your guy. His contract is no longer quite as enticing as it once was, particularly since he can’t seem to turn the corner on the hill, but if he can find his form he’d once again be a premium asset.

13. Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels — It’s hard to discount the run he’s been on the last two years too much, but clubs will surely be wary of the fact that he’s doing it with a .350-ish BABIP. Without much pop in the bat, and a middling glove, there are limits to his value.

14. Danny Valencia, INF, Athletics — Valencia has fallen back at the plate and recently was moved off his regular third base gig. That seems to suggest that he’s not a major part of Oakland’s plans for 2017, but it also doesn’t necessarily do much for his trade value.

15. Melvin Upton Jr., OF, Padres — Trade chatter is picking up quite a bit on the resurgent Padres outfielder. His big contract will factor heavily in the market, as the Ubaldo Jimenez rumors would suggest, but he looks to be quite a useful addition for a contender in need of a fill-in starter or oft-used fourth outfielder.

16. Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies — This feels a bit high for a player who is hitting quite well now, but hasn’t ever been a consistently useful offensive player. But that’s not the real reason for it. Instead, with Bourjos showing some life at the plate, he looks like an obvious player to change hands. His speed and defense make him a nice bench piece down the stretch, and with free agency coming, the Phils don’t have much reason not to cash him in.

17-19. Outfielders Ryan Braun (Brewers), Carlos Gonzalez & Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) — This trio is tough to gauge. You could argue that the Brewers ought to sell Braun now, but is the market really willing? And is Rockies owner Dick Monfort ready to pack in not only on 2016, but also ding the team’s near-future outlook by dealing away a high-quality outfielder?

20-21. Shortstops Eduardo Nunez (Twins) & Zack Cozart (Reds) — These are the two best middle infielders on the market — Cozart is an outstanding true shortstop, while Nunez has experience all over — but we’re still not seeing clear demand crystallize.

22-23. Relievers Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith, Brewers — Milwaukee’s quality and controllable relievers could be traded or not, but odds are at least one will change hands as teams that miss out on bigger targets go looking for a backup plan.

24-26. Starters Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Ivan Nova (Yankees) & Jon Niese (Pirates) — There’s always demand for innings on the trade market, and these three starters bring that along with at least some hope for more.

Keep reading for the rest of the list and other names that were considered …

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