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Archives for January 2016

A’s Notes: Alvarez, Doolittle, Crisp, Parker

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A’s starter Henderson Alvarez is unlikely to pitch for the team before May, according the GM David Forst (via ESPN). The 25-year-old is recovering from shoulder surgery. Oakland signed the right-hander to a one-year, $4.25MM guarantee with up to $1.6MM in incentives back in December. The Marlins had previously non-tendered Alvarez.

Here’s more injury-related notes out of Oakland:

  • A’s closer Sean Doolittle says he’s healthy and ready for the 2016 season, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Doolittle missed most of the 2015 with a shoulder injury. In his absence, the A’s had one of the worst bullpens in the league. Doolittle is pleased with the additions the club has made – particularly Ryan Madson, John Axford, Lian Hendriks, and Marc Rzepczynski.
  • Coco Crisp’s availability in 2016 is unknown, per Shea. Injuries limited him to 44 games last season, and he’s only just now beginning to hit. The club will learn more about his availability in Spring Training.
  • Also from Shea, manager Bob Melvin expects Jarrod Parker to be ready for spring action. Parker, once a prominent pitching prospect, has missed most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He’s experienced success in the majors, including a career 3.68 ERA, 6.45 K/9, and 2.98 BB/9 in 384 innings.
  • Two more starting pitchers who ended the season on the disabled list – Jesse Hahn and Kendall Graveman – are fully healthy, writes Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area. Hahn and Graveman were acquired in trades prior to the 2015 season. They will join a competitive battle for a rotation role behind ace Sonny Gray and free agent import Rich Hill.

Tigers Notes: VSL, Upton, Kinsler

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The Tigers are one of the many teams to pull out of the Venezuelan Summer League, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Political instability in the region has caused the league to collapse. GM Al Avila said the Tigers would continue to maintain their Venezuelan baseball academy and will also participate in the winter-based Parallel League. Some clubs are adding a second Dominican team to develop their Latin prospects, but Detroit is planning to open a Gulf Coast League team instead.

Here’s more from the Tigers:

  • Back in August, GM Al Avila restructured the front office to create a baseball analytics department, writes James Hawkins of the Detroit News. At the club’s recent TigerFest, Avila admitted the club didn’t previously have an analytics team. He specifically referenced Statcast, a relatively new technology that tracks nearly everything that occurs on a baseball field. Technology in the game has developed to the point that no team can ignore the importance of data researchers.
  • Justin Upton may have made his first impression on scouts when he was just 13, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Upton happened to be hanging around a ball field where a group of college players needed a catcher. Upton had no experience behind the plate but fearless donned the tools of ignorance to catch much more physically mature pitchers. When older brother Melvin Upton hit the competitive circuit with players like Cameron Maybin, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman, the younger Upton tagged along.
  • Second baseman Ian Kinsler has made maintaining his speed a priority, writes George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. Kinsler doesn’t want to become a bat-only player (despite rumors of 15 more DH jobs on the horizon). As such, a focus on continuing to run quickly will help him to regularly produce for the Tigers.

Poll: Best $100MM+ Hitting Contract

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Six weeks ago, Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers which of the four nine-figure contracts given to pitchers this offseason was the best. 37.6% of you said you preferred Jordan Zimmermann’s deal — the cheapest of the four.

Of course, Jeff couldn’t ask a similar question about contracts for hitters, because the only hitter to agree to a deal over $100MM to that point was Jason Heyward. The hitting market was slow in coming, but now, finally, there have been two other hitters to cross the nine-figure threshold.

Heyward’s deal was the most expensive, at $184MM, although deferrals reduce its present-day value to about $5MM less than that. The deal also contains an opt-out after 2018, and possibly another after 2019 if he stays healthy. He also receives full or limited no-trade protection throughout the contract. Heyward is, of course, highly talented and very young and athletic for a free agent, but in a poll following the announcement of the deal, most MLBTR readers thought the Cubs overpaid.

The Orioles’ Chris Davis received somewhat less than Heyward, at $161MM and with very significant deferrals. He gets a partial no-trade clause but does not receive an opt-out. Davis is over three years older than Heyward and his skill set isn’t nearly as well rounded, which could lead to reasonable questions about how he’ll age over the life of the deal. Davis’ power is, however, second to none.

Justin Upton’s $132.75MM contract with the Tigers is the most recent of the three.  Upton gets an opt-out after 2017, as well as limited no-trade protection. He’s between Heyward and Upton in age. He doesn’t have Heyward’s defensive or baserunning value, and he doesn’t have Davis’ power either, but he’s blossomed into a reliable offensive threat, and his deal is a considerably smaller commitment than Heyward’s, at least.

Davis’ deal might be the riskiest of the three, given his age and issues with strikeouts. But one could argue that there’s more upside in Davis’ deal, too, given that he does not have an opt-out. What you think about the Heyward deal likely depends to some degree on how you weight defense in your assessment of a player’s value (and in your assessment of how he’ll age). Upton’s skill set is perhaps the easiest of the three to grasp — he’s a good, consistent power hitter who gets on base and plays decent defense in an outfield corner. He hasn’t yet blossomed into the MVP-type player he looked like he might be when he was a prospect, although he’s young enough that we might not have seen the best of him yet.

So which of these contracts is the best bet?

Quick Hits: Cars, Opt-Outs, DH

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Here are MLBTR, we routinely toss around dollar figures in the tens or hundreds of millions in reference to players’ salaries. It’s rare, though, that we get as clear a glimpse into what those tens or hundreds of millions can actually buy as we do in this look at MLB players’ cars, courtesy of Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Specifically, Rohan profiles Alex Vega, who owns a custom car shop in the Miami area. Vega frequently works with baseball players during the offseason, because, he says, “Spring training is when business gets the craziest because everybody wants to show up with something new. I’m already getting calls. I’m already preparing cars.” For example, Rohan notes that Pablo Sandoval recently entered the shop hoping to buy a 2016 Rolls Royce Ghost; he left behind a customized Porsche that he had bought just two years before, only driving it for just over 15,000 miles. The quiz accompanying the article — in which the reader is asked to match the car to the star who bought it — is amusing. Here’s more from around the league.

  • This offseason has seen the proliferation of opt-out clauses in long-term contracts, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Opt-out clauses were so rare in the past that the industry doesn’t have much concrete experience with what their results will be (although, I’ll note, it would be easy to study how opt-outs might have worked in past contracts by imagining what players might have done had they had opt-outs after, say, a year, or two years). The obvious conclusion is that opt-outs are a lose-lose for teams, who should theoretically lose productive players as they opt out while being stuck with the ones who don’t produce. But it might not be so simple, as Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski points out. “There may be other cases where somebody opts out and after a year — I’m not going to say this is going to happen but I’ll use it as an example — after a year something happens to him and he’s not pitching as well, and [a team says], ’See? That was a benefit to us,'” he says. “So we really haven’t reached that second step yet.”
  • It’s looking more and more likely that the designated hitter will be implemented in the NL as well as in the AL, Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal writes. The players’ association has long supported the change, and taking bats out of pitchers’ hands will help create more runs in an increasingly offense-starved playing environment. Also, Diamond points out that pitchers are hitting even worse than they used to, posting four of their five lowest season OPS marks since 1974 in the last four years.

Central Notes: Arroyo, Indians, Twins, Hawkins

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Free agent starter Bronson Arroyo was recently at Great American Ballpark, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Robert Murray of Baseball Essential also recently reported that Arroyo threw for the Reds in Cincinnati. These reports, while somewhat circumstantial, point toward a possible reunion between Arroyo and the team for which he pitched from 2006 through 2013. Previous reports had suggested that the Reds were among the teams that had interest in the right-hander, although much would depend on Arroyo’s recovery from Tommy John surgery. The 38-year-old last pitched in the big leagues in June 2014, when he was with the Diamondbacks. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Indians were smart to sign Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco to long-term deals before this offseason, Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com writes. This winter has seen a number of what Hoynes implies are exorbitantly expensive pitching contracts, from the top end of the market (Johnny Cueto) to the upper middle (Jeff Samardzija, $90MM; Ian Kennedy, $70MM) to the lower middle (Mike Pelfrey, $16MM). Meanwhile, Kluber is controlled through 2021 at $14MM or less per season, and Carrasco through 2020 at $9.5MM or less per season. Of course, as Hoynes notes, Kluber and Carrasco weren’t free to negotiate with other teams when they signed those contracts. And, obviously, the Indians aren’t the only team signing top young pitchers to long-term deals. But both contracts delay their recipients’ free agency by up to three years, and when contrasted with the prices of free-agent pitching, they do contribute to a compelling case for locking up talented youngsters early.
  • Former Twins pitchers LaTroy Hawkins and Rick Aguilera are likely to join the team to help work with pitchers in Spring Training, Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press tweets. Hawkins spent the first nine seasons of his career with the Twins. The reliever had a strong season with the Rockies and Blue Jays in 2015, but he’s now retired, having announced prior to the season that he intended it to be his last. Aguilera spent parts of 11 seasons with the Twins and last pitched in the big leagues in 2000. The three-time All Star was elected to the Twins Hall of Fame in 2008.

Josh Reddick Ready To Talk Extension With Athletics

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Outfielder Josh Reddick is ready to discuss an extension with the Athletics, John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group tweets. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle further clarifies that there have not been any discussions to this point, and if the two sides do talk deal, Reddick does not want those discussions to continue into the season (Twitter links).

In October, Billy Beane told the media that he saw Reddick as a potential extension candidate. “Josh is a good player and he’s still young,” Beane told reporters, including the Chronicle’s Susan Slusser. “We’ve always liked having him here. Talented guy, does everything well. … We’re all very pleased with the year Josh had.”

Via Hickey, it sounds like Reddick wanted to settle his arbitration case before discussing a longer-term deal. Last week, Reddick and the A’s reached a $6.575MM deal for 2016, Reddick’s last season before free agency. That would mean a Reddick extension would begin with that as a starting point.

Beyond that, it’s hard to say what the parameters of a deal beyond that might be, although one player who signed a recent extension in a somewhat similar situation was the Yankees’ Brett Gardner. Gardner’s $52MM deal came before the 2014 season, when he was a year short of free agency, and covered 2015 through 2018. Gardner and Reddick have somewhat different profiles — Gardner was a bit older at the time of his extension than the soon-to-be-29-year-old Reddick is now, and he drew much of his value from his speed, his on-base percentage and his ability to play center field rather than his power. But the two players were, or are, both prime-age outfielders who are consistently valuable despite never having been superstars.

Of course, it’s unclear whether the cost-conscious Athletics would be willing to commit to a deal of that scope for Reddick. And given Reddick’s youth, the weakness of next year’s free agent market, ballooning salaries for free agents, and the increasing prevalence of player-friendly opt-outs, Reddick’s camp could also ask for a contract with a significantly different structure.

In any case, it’s easy to understand why the A’s would hope to keep Reddick at this point. He’s coming off perhaps his best offensive season to date (.272/.333/.449), and his play was a highlight of the Athletics’ otherwise disappointing 2015. Thanks to his home-run power, his solid defense, and dramatic improvements in his strikeout rate over the past several seasons, he has maintained his value well in his four years with the A’s, and given his age, there’s reason to think he could continue to do so.

Diamondbacks Trying To Trade Aaron Hill

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The Diamondbacks are attempting to trade veteran infielder Aaron Hill, Jon Heyman tweets. Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Diamondbacks were looking to trade a second baseman, potentially clearing space for the team to sign free agent Howie Kendrick. The D-backs have other second basemen who might be more attractive in a trade, like Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, but it appears Hill is the one they’re looking to deal.

Of course, as Heyman points out, trading Hill won’t be easy. For one thing, the middle infield market is still relatively robust, with Kendrick, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins and others still available. Also, Hill is owed $12MM in 2016 and is coming off two straight poor seasons at the plate. He batted .230/.295/.345 in 2015, a line that was bad but not markedly worse than his 2014 performance. And while defensive metrics once marked him as a plus second baseman, they’ve downgraded him to average or slightly below average in recent seasons.

Hill would appear, then, to have no trade value due to his age (33), performance and salary. The Diamondbacks and Reds previously discussed a trade involving Hill and Brandon Phillips. That deal didn’t work out, but it fits the basic form a Hill trade would likely take — the D-backs would likely have to take on another expensive player in return, or at least pay much of Hill’s remaining salary. Of course, if their ultimate goal were to sign Kendrick (which is unclear, since Kendrick declined a qualifying offer and Arizona has previously expressed a strong desire to keep their top remaining draft pick), the Diamondbacks might instead seek a high-salaried veteran who played a position outside the middle infield.

Of course, the Diamondbacks could clear roster space and avoid the headache of trying to trade Hill’s contract by dealing Owings, but  Owings plays a decent defensive shortstop and would therefore be more useful in a utility role if the Diamondbacks were to sign Kendrick or another infielder. Hill has not played shortstop since 2006 and spent last season at second base and third, so his tactical value to the Diamondbacks is limited, particularly given that they already have a variety of infield options.

Cafardo’s Latest: Blue Jays, Fister, Hanrahan, Parnell, Latos

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Here’s the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • Former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos (who’s now with the Dodgers) believes his old team is going to be “really good” next season, Cafardo reports. Anthopoulos points out that, in addition to midseason additions like David Price, one key for the Jays down the stretch last year was that Troy Tulowitzki’s addition and Jose Bautista’s recovery from injury allowed them to field a better defense. That’s an improvement they should be able to at least partially retain in 2016, Anthopoulos believes.
  • The Astros have been considering signing Doug Fister to help fill their rotation, Cafardo writes. He notes that the Astros do want another starter, but are “looking for a bargain.” (They’ve also recently been connected to Yovani Gallardo.)
  • Former closer Joel Hanrahan is attempting another comeback and could be ready for Spring Training. Last we heard, it was unclear whether Hanrahan would resume pitching before 2017, but it appears the former Pirates closer is determined not to let his recovery from second Tommy John surgery hold him back.
  • Another reliever whose career has been derailed by injuries, former Met Bobby Parnell, remains a free agent, and some scouts believe he could be a good addition to some team’s bullpen. “He’s someone a team could easily take a chance on and hope he regains that power he once had,” says one. Parnell had Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 season and never got untracked in 2015, throwing less hard than he had in the past and struggling with more arm issues. His velocity had returned by the end of the season, though, which might be a good sign for his future.
  • Mat Latos remains on the open market in part because of the perception that he isn’t an especially good teammate, Cafardo suggests. (That perception might have something to do with interviews like this one, in which Latos is unusually candid about his former Reds teammates, the Reds training staff, and what he perceives as a slight by a former GM.) Latos will probably end up having to take a one-year deal.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s a look at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR over the past week:

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Giants, Phillies, Upton

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Here’s our weekly look around the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

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