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Archives for October 2016

Daniels On Rangers: Lucroy, Offseason Needs, Gallo, Profar

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2016 at 9:35pm CDT

Rangers GM Jon Daniels managed to engineer an AL West title, but his club washed out in the ALDS. Today, he and manager Jeff Banister addressed the 2016 season and broke down the roster needs heading into the offseason, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan was among those to cover:

  • Texas will exercise its club option over catcher Jonathan Lucroy, which is about the easiest decision the team will face this winter. The 30-year-old’s $5.5MM tab for 2017 was one of the chief reasons that the Rangers gave up a strong haul of prospects to acquire him at the trade deadline. Lucroy rewarded the investment with a .276/.345/.539 batting line and 11 home runs over 168 plate appearances down the stretch.
  • Starting pitching represents the Rangers’ top priority heading towards 2017, Daniels suggested. Texas also needs to fill in at center field and first base. There are a variety of considerations in all of those areas involving departing free agents, open-market options, trade targets, and internal candidates for increased roles. Regarding the team’s own players whose contracts are expiring — righty Colby Lewis, first baseman Mitch Moreland, and outfielders Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez, and Carlos Beltran — Daniels says: “All of those free agents, under the right circumstances, we would love to have back.” 
  • Bolstering the rotation will be accomplished somehow, Daniels promised. “We will be better,” he said of the position, while also suggesting that the team still has enough assets in its farm to strike a significant swap to bring in a new hurler. Texas also needs to make a call on the $11MM option of lefty Derek Holland — declining it would require a $1.5MM buyout, as well as a $1MM buyout of his ensuing $11.5MM option for 2018 — after he turned in a 4.95 ERA over 107 1/3 innings. Daniels indicated that the team remains undecided on that move.
  • Desmond is “the Rangers’ first choice to play center field,” according to Sullivan. He seems a highly-likely qualifying offer candidate, though that wasn’t confirmed in the presser. Gomez, too, could be a consideration up the middle. “We like what we saw from Gomez,” said Banister. “We feel like he is a quality player.” It’ll certainly be interesting to see what kind of interest he’ll draw on the open market after bouncing back with a .284/.362/.543 batting line in his 130 plate appearances late in the year with Texas. Otherwise, Texas has a wide variety of uncertain outfield options already kicking around in the system. “We have a number of guys we believe in and have talent,” said Daniels. “They are certainly going to get opportunities. Competition is very healthy.”
  • At first base, the big question may be whether the club is ready to entrust Joey Gallo with a big chunk of playing time. The 22-year-old put up a .240/.367/.529 slash and swatted 25 long balls in his 433 trips to the plate at Triple-A, but has struggled badly in limited MLB exposure. “Joey is still a premium talent,” Banister said. “This guy has what very few in the game have. His raw power is off the charts. The power shows up, but it’s the hit-ability and the consistency that has to get better.”
  • Another question mark of sorts is infielder Jurickson Profar, the former top prospect who finally returned to health this year. He isn’t lined up for much time up the middle after strong years from Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, with Sullivan suggesting he may yet be a trade candidate. But Texas believes in his talent and values his versatility, writes Sullivan, and his trade value may not be quite what the team would need to pull the trigger on a deal. Profar has just three seasons of control remaining, and only ended up with a .239/.321/.338 slash line on the year. “As I sit here today, my expectation is for [Profar] to be on the ballclub in a winning role,” said Daniels. “I think he is a winning piece.”
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Texas Rangers Carlos Beltran Carlos Gomez Colby Lewis Derek Holland Ian Desmond Joey Gallo Jonathan Lucroy Jurickson Profar

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MLBTR Mailbag: Orioles, Carter, Holland, Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | October 11, 2016 at 8:30pm CDT

Thanks again for all of the questions we received for this week’s Mailbag. As you know, we can only pick a short few, but you can ask the MLBTR staff considerably more questions during our three weekly chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd. Onto this week’s questions…

The Orioles desperately need an infusion of OBP, and appear to have a RF spot open for next season. The question is… who might be available via FA or trade that could provide that at a cost the team can afford? Jon Jay? Matt Joyce as a strict platoon with Joey Rickard? Ryan Braun if Milwaukee eats a bunch of that contract? Choo if Texas eats a bunch of that contract? I just don’t think that a reincarnated Michael Bourn is the answer. Thanks. — Patrick D.

Agreed that Bourn isn’t any kind of answer for them in right field. And, as impressive as Mark Trumbo’s power was this season, his glovework in right field negated a fair bit of the value his home runs provided. He’s better-suited at first base, but with Chris Davis’ presence, that’s not really an option.

The Brewers haven’t shown much of an inclination to eat a huge amount of Braun’s contract, and the more of it they covered, the greater the return they’d seek. As this year’s trade deadline exemplified, the Orioles aren’t exactly deep in top-tier prospects. Choo is older than Braun and comes with durability question marks (plus platoon issues).

On paper, a Rickard/Joyce platoon has at least a chance of being productive at the plate, but Rickard drew poor defensive ratings in the outfield this season and looked lost against right-handers, whom he’d have to face at least occasionally even in a platoon setting. Moreover, patchwork platoon setups in the corner outfield have been a staple for the O’s for years now without terrific results. Baltimore has cycled through names like Nolan Reimold, Delmon Young, Dariel Alvarez, Chris Dickerson, David Lough, Travis Snider and many others in recent years while trying to patch up the outfield corners. And Hyun Soo Kim will already require some degree of platooning in left field in 2017.

Jay would make a nice outfield target for Baltimore, given his career .352 OBP and relatively even platoon splits. Plus, he’d probably like the idea of rebuilding some value in a more hitter-friendly division/ball park and would provide some insurance if center fielder Adam Jones needs a rest or suffers an injury. That fit makes the most sense of anyone on the free-agent market, unless the Orioles want to beat the market for Jose Bautista and continue to live with questionable defense in right field, which seems unlikely. Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki and non-tender candidate Ben Revere all had down seasons, and I doubt Dexter Fowler’s camp is going to be anxious to rekindle talks following last winter’s debacle. (Plus, he figures to be rather expensive.) Matt Holliday can still hit but has never been a right fielder (or even a particularly great defensive left fielder.) Revere intrigues me as a buy-low candidate, but he’s never been a big OBP guy. Likewise, Josh Reddick has only a .316 career OBP. Though he has trended up in that regard  of late, he might be out of the O’s price range. All things considered, Jay makes a good bit of sense in Baltimore.

Should the Brewers keep, non-tender Chris Carter, or maybe try to trade him? — N.

I don’t see any real cause to non-tender him, even if his steep $8.1MM salary projection ends up being accurate. Milwaukee has so very little committed elsewhere on the payroll that they can handle that without much trouble, and fans like seeing home runs. Carter hasn’t had much value in the past — hence last winter’s non-tender — so considering that and a fairly sizable bump in salary, I doubt there will be many clubs lining up strong offers to get him. But, he was a solid bat last season even with the punchouts, and the Brewers don’t have anyone immediately pushing for his job at first base. Keep him around and, barring a surprising change in his valuation on this winter’s trade market, see if a club needs some DH/1B help at next summer. If not — at least you have another season of a 40-homer bat with a penchant for tape-measure shots to elicit some admiration from those attending the games.

What kind of contract do you see Greg Holland fetching? Maybe a one-year deal with some high AAV team/mutual options? — Shay C.

I don’t really envision Holland and Scott Boras jumping on board with a team option when Holland should theoretically be ready to suit up for Spring Training next season. I’m leaning toward a two-year deal with a lower salary in the first season and a steeper one in year two — possibly something in the vein of $12-16MM total. Alternatively, Boras and Holland could try to go the Brian Wilson route and sign a one-year deal with a steep player option for the second season. That’s effectively an opt-out clause, and it’s pure downside for the team, so I have a tougher time seeing it.

All that being said, that kind of contract has obviously been given out before, and there will be intense demand for high-upside pen arms. The fact of the matter is that a lot of mediocre relief arms are going to get two- and in a few cases even three-year deals this winter — there aren’t tons of other places to spend your money — and some team could look at Holland as an opportunity to add a guy that was not long ago projected to compete with Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen for the top relief contract this winter at what will be a relatively bargain rate. Two years and $12-16MM might seem steep for a guy that didn’t pitch this year, but that’s the type of money that teams pay fourth outfielders (Chris Young) and back-of-the-rotation starters (the other Chris Young, Mike Pelfrey). If some team thinks it can get a legitimate relief ace in Holland — or even something close to it — why not?

How many QO’s are given out this year and who do you think gets them? — Adam D.

I’ll break this up into a couple of categories: Locks for qualifying offers and guys that I can see getting consideration.

For locks, I’d list Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Bautista, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo. That’s nine right there.

As for players that I think have a chance of receiving them — we’ll say 20 percent or more, to put a rough number on it… basically as a means of illustrating that it wouldn’t shock me — I’ll list Neil Walker, Michael Saunders, Wilson Ramos, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters.

Of that bunch, I do think Walker will still get one, barring a huge setback in his recovery from back surgery. I lean toward giving one to Saunders, as I don’t think there’s huge downside to having him at one year and $16-17MM, but I’m aware of his terrible second half, and not everyone on the MLBTR staff shares that viewpoint with me.

I’d like to wait until after Ramos’ surgery before making a prediction, but I’d lean toward no on the QO unless there’s confidence that he can be ready in mid-2017 and a belief that he’ll have multi-year interest elsewhere. I’d steer clear of Napoli, Morales and Wieters as well, though sticking either Napoli or Morales with a QO could lead to an accelerated two-year deal worth a few million more than the QO value, which isn’t a bad outcome — say, $24-28MM. It’s also not clear whether the Indians or Royals will be okay with taking such a big payroll hit if either of those sluggers were to accept. Wieters accepted last season and would probably again this year after a solid but not great year. That’s not the worst situation, but the O’s have enough questions elsewhere on the roster — and, perhaps, enough of a payroll crunch — that they needn’t be allocating ~$17MM to a catcher that hasn’t been a decidedly above-average bat over the life of a full season since 2011-12.

So that puts me at 11 QOs that I feel like should be offered. Realistically, I can see both Walker and Saunders not getting them, and some from my group of “no” players receiving them. I’ll estimate between 10 and 13 are ultimately extended.

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MLBTR Mailbag MLBTR Originals

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Dombrowski On Farrell, DH, Sandoval, Pomeranz, Uehara

By Connor Byrne | October 11, 2016 at 6:47pm CDT

Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced that manager John Farrell will return in 2017. “John Farrell will be our manager for 2017. He is all set, and his whole staff will be invited back,” declared Dombrowski (via the Associated Press). Farrell, whom Dombrowski called “our leader going forward,” was at the helm of a 93-69 team in 2016 that bounced back from two straight last-place finishes to win the AL East. Entering the year, the Red Sox’s most recent division title came in 2013, when the Farrell-led club also won the World Series. The Red Sox won’t reach that goal this year, of course, as the Indians swept them out of the ALDS on Monday. Nevertheless, having gone 339-309 with two playoff berths and a championship in four years, Farrell has done enough to justify a fifth season in Boston, according to Dombrowski.

Here’s more on Boston, which is now turning its focus to the offseason:

  • The Red Sox aren’t a lock to pursue an outside replacement for retiring designated hitter David Ortiz, as Rob Bradford of WEEI writes. They could instead shift first baseman Hanley Ramirez to DH and use a committee of Travis Shaw, Pablo Sandoval, Yoan Moncada and Sam Travis at the corner infield positions. As Bradford notes, signing the highest-profile DH candidate set to hit the market, the Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion, would enable the Red Sox to split DH and first between him and Ramirez. On Ramirez’s role going forward, Dombrowski said, “I think he’s capable of doing both. Actually, to me, he did a fine job at first base. Personally, I like the availability of the option of doing both, because I think that if you have that flexibility, it probably fits with us better with the personnel that we have going forward. But we also have to have conversations with Hanley, too, before we get to that point.”
  • Dombrowski addressed the status of Sandoval, who missed nearly the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and was ahead of schedule in his rehab as of late September. “His goal was to be ready, physically, to play in the ALCS. I don’t know that that would’ve happened, because our other people had been there all year, but from a health perspective, he’s really right there, so I think he’ll be healthy next year,” commented Dombrowski (via Ryan Hannable of WEEI). “There’s other guys that I’m sure say they should be the third baseman. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. But he’s been a proven big league performer. If he’s healthy and ready to go, he has a chance to be a good performer for us.” Sandoval has been a major disappointment since the Red Sox signed him to a five-year, $95MM deal in November 2014, but the organization doesn’t seem down on him. Dombrowski said the ex-Giant “should be proud” of the rehab work he has done since his injury. Notably, Bradford reported last month that Sandoval had lost 22 pounds.
  • Left-hander Drew Pomeranz endured an underwhelming second half after the Red Sox acquired him from the Padres for top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza in July. Of course, Boston complained last month about the lack of medical information the Padres disclosed prior to the trade, and Major League Baseball also suspended Friars GM A.J. Preller for 30 days without pay. The Red Sox skipped Pomeranz’s final start of the regular season because he was dealing with forearm soreness, and he then pitched out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Going forward, Dombrowski expects Pomeranz to figure into Boston’s rotation, though he cautioned that his medicals will have to check out. “We look forward to him being part of our rotation. We feel for him. I’m hopeful that he’ll be OK going into next year and the doctors will be the ones that advise us on that, but I think he will be,” stated Dombrowski (via Hannable).
  • In order to remain with the Red Sox, soon-to-be free agent reliever Koji Uehara will likely have to take a pay cut from his $9MM salary, per Hannable. Given Uehara’s age (he’ll be 42 next April), that’s not a surprise. Uehara remains a highly effective late-game option, though, as he recorded a 3.45 ERA, 12.06 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9 over 47 innings in 2016. Dombrowski revealed that Uehara “wants to continue pitching,” but the executive isn’t sure if the Red Sox will bring the right-hander back for a fifth year. “I don’t know how you really interpret a guy going forward at that. I don’t have any special formula,” said Dombrowski. “But I will also tell you Koji’s a hard guy to evaluate when he’s younger and healthy. Because he’s a very abnormal type pitcher. I mean how many guys that are throwing 88 mph blow the ball by you on a consistent basis? So he’s a tough evaluation no matter what.”
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Boston Red Sox Dave Dombrowski Drew Pomeranz Hanley Ramirez John Farrell Koji Uehara Pablo Sandoval

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Carlos Beltran To Return In 2017

By Connor Byrne | October 11, 2016 at 5:52pm CDT

Designated hitter/right fielder Carlos Beltran said Tuesday that he plans to come back in 2017 for his age-40 season, according to TR Sullivan of MLB.com (Twitter link). Whether the impending free agent will return to the Rangers is up in the air, but he hopes to re-sign with the club.

Beltran spent the majority of 2016 with the Yankees, whom he signed with prior to the 2014 campaign, before they dealt him to Texas at the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. After beginning the year an outstanding .304/.344/.546 with 22 home runs in 387 plate appearances with the Yankees, Beltran cooled off significantly as a member of the Rangers. In 206 post-deadline PAs, he batted .280/.325/.451 with seven homers. Still, as he has typically done throughout what might be a Hall of Fame career, Beltran posted an easily above-average .295/.337/.513 line in 593 trips to the plate. As a result, he could pique hitter-needy teams’ interest in free agency.

Given his age and defensive limitations, Beltran surely won’t do as well as the three-year, $45MM deal he inked last time he hit the open market. It also won’t help Beltran’s earning power that a return to the DH-less National League, where he previously played with the Mets, Giants and Cardinals, is likely out of the question. Beltran’s coming off a season in which he worked more as a DH (73 games) than as an outfielder (67) for the second time since 2014. Beltran’s recent subpar work in the grass justifies his bat-first role, as Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved have graded him as a minus outfielder over the past several seasons.

It’s merely speculation, but contenders like the Indians, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros are among those that could pursue Beltran during the offseason if he doesn’t re-sign with the Rangers. Along with Houston, one of his ex-employers, both Boston and Cleveland went after Beltran at the deadline. The Red Sox are set to enter the post-David Ortiz era at DH, while the Jays are in danger of losing both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista in free agency. The same is true for the Indians and Mike Napoli. The Astros have a DH option on hand in Evan Gattis, though he could become their everyday catcher if fellow backstop Jason Castro signs elsewhere.

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Texas Rangers Carlos Beltran

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2016 at 4:53pm CDT

The rebuilding Braves didn’t show much improvement in the standings, ending up with a 68-93 record that landed them the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft. But Atlanta ended the year on a 12-and-2 tear that represented a high note on which to finish. With a much-anticipated new ballpark on the horizon and an expectation of significant financial outlays at the major league level, hopes are high … but just how high should they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $106.5MM through 2021
  • Matt Kemp, OF: $54.5MM through 2019 (Dodgers, via Padres, paying $10.5MM of remaining obligations)
  • Julio Teheran, SP: $26.3MM through 2019 ($12MM club option for 2020; $1MM buyout)
  • Nick Markakis, OF: $21MM through 2018
  • Tyler Flowers, C: $3.3MM through 2017 ($4MM club option for 2018; $300K buyout)
  • Jim Johnson, RP: Unreported guarantee through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

  • Ender Inciarte, OF (2.157): $2.8MM
  • Josh Collmenter, SP/RP (5.110): $2.2MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino, RP (3.168): $1.6MM
  • Chris Withrow, RP (3.111): $1.2MM
  • Ian Krol, RP (2.147): $1.0MM
  • Anthony Recker, C (4.000): $1.0MM
  • Paco Rodriguez, RP (3.120): $900K
  • Non-tender candidates: Collmenter, Withrow, Recker, Rodriguez

Free Agents

  • Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O’Flaherty, A.J. Pierzynski

Atlanta Braves Depth Chart; Atlanta Braves Payroll Information

In some ways, the task to date has been straightforward for Atlanta GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart: with a prioritization of value over need, and talent over results, he set out to add as much controllable talent as possible. That has resulted in a highly-regarded farm system that is increasingly pushing players onto the major league roster. But now, the balance begins to get a bit trickier.

The Braves spoke of improving at the major league level in 2016, and that didn’t really occur. But Coppolella and company nevertheless intend to take a step toward focusing on major league results in the coming campaign. The first order of business was choosing a manager, with interim skipper Brian Snitker receiving the permanent nod after delivering solid results down the stretch.

The shifting mindset is most evident in regard to the starting rotation, where Coppolella says at least two additions are planned. Much of the rebuild has focused on adding pre-MLB arms, a fair number of them at the upper levels of the minors, but to date that hasn’t led to much productivity at the major league level. Atlanta’s rotation was one of the worst in all of baseball last year, with only Julio Teheran posting a full season’s worth of quality starts.

Whether or not Teheran and his appealing contract reach the trading block has long been the source of intrigue, but it may be that the Braves will no longer seriously pursue such a path — unless, at least, there’s a truly overwhelming offer to be had that includes major league-ready talent. Otherwise, Mike Foltynewicz seemingly showed enough (4.31 ERA, 8.1 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9 in 123 1/3 innings) to warrant a spot in next year’s rotation, but the rest of the staff seems to be up for grabs.

If Atlanta does add two established pitchers to its stable — no small feat on a barren market for starters — then that would appear to leave a single job available for the remaining internal options. Josh Collmenter, who was added late in the year, could take a starter’s role or end up as a swingman. Less-established hurlers such as Matt Wisler, John Gant, Aaron Blair, Williams Perez, and Tyrell Jenkins may also battle for jobs, but will need to impress in camp to avoid a trip back to Triple-A Gwinnett. Some pitchers who have yet to make their major league debuts could ultimately enter the mix as the season progresses, including Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and breakout talent Patrick Weigel.

Looking at the market for the pair of arms that Atlanta desires, there are a variety of possible approaches for the team to consider. Following the Phillies’ plan a winter ago — targeting bounceback veterans on short-term, reasonably expensive contracts — could lead the Braves to pursue a pitcher such as Jason Hammel or Jaime Garcia via trade. There are bigger fish that could be available from other organizations, though indications from the team are that it won’t part with the top prospects that would be needed to land a true top-of-the-rotation arm. The free agent market does contain some options, of course. It would be surprising to see the Braves chase Rich Hill, the highest-upside arm available, but they could conceivably look into Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova while also chasing value further down the market — where pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Charlie Morton, Edinson Volquez, and Doug Fister.

The bullpen could be a landing spot for a few of those pitchers, but seems likely to be anchored by Arodys Vizcaino — who’ll look to bounce back after a very rough second half that was impacted by shoulder problems — and veteran Jim Johnson, who just re-upped for two more years. Young fireballer Mauricio Cabrera has also likely locked up a spot, though his peripherals (7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 49.1% groundball rate) didn’t quite mach his ERA (2.82) and outrageous average velocity (an even 100 mph). Jose Ramirez showed well in his first extensive taste in the majors, Chris Withrow may have the track on a job if he can return to health, and Ian Krol will likely be the top lefty after a nice bounceback season. With other names in the mix as well, the pen doesn’t figure to be an area of focus this winter, though certainly a veteran arm could end up being added here as well.

Much the same holds true of the outfield, which received a boost from Matt Kemp after his mid-season acquisition. The veteran showed signs of a resurgence after coming over in a swap that allowed the Braves to jettison Hector Olivera. When the dust settled, Atlanta was left on the hook for $8.5MM annually over the next three years over and above Olivera’s own $28.5MM in remaining obligations. (They’ll still actually pay Kemp the $54.5MM reflected above.) The 32-year-old swatted a dozen long balls in 241 plate appearances, and more importantly raised his overall batting line to .280/.336/.519. He’d still be a better fit in the American League, but that’s reasonably-priced pop even given his defensive limitations.

The club will have some potential decisions to make in the outfield, though. Ender Inciarte remains the obvious choice in center after putting up another season of average hitting combined with stellar defense and baserunning. Nick Markakis remains entrenched in right. Though he returned to hitting low-double-digit home runs (13 this year), he’s still only an average producer on offense. His glove does continue to boost his value, but Markakis probably doesn’t profile as a first-division regular at this stage of his career. Whether the Braves can find a taker for a big portion of his remaining salary may be the difference in determining the near-term fate of Mallex Smith, who could end up opening the year at Triple-A after a solid but hardly commanding rookie-year performance.

It’s also not clear whether Atlanta will push hard to make changes in the infield — at least in the traditional sense of signing a free agent to plug a hole — though certainly creative possibilities can’t be discounted. Freddie Freeman is obviously a lock at first base, where he’ll aim to repeat a stellar 2016. And Dansby Swanson is nearly as good a bet to take the everyday job at short that he handled well upon his late-season call-up.

At second and third, the Braves have relatively little need to act, but certainly could if the right opportunity arose. The former is being held open for Ozzie Albies, who’ll compete for a job out of camp but may spend a bit more time in the upper minors before making his ascent — particularly since he won’t be able to play in the Arizona Fall League after suffering a late-season olecranon fracture. Though he struggled at Triple-A, Albies posted a monster .321/.391/.467 batting line with 21 stolen bases in 371 plate appearances at Double-A last year, playing at just 19 years of age. With Jace Peterson available at second and Daniel Castro on hand as a utility option, expectations are that Atlanta will keep relatively quiet in this area while waiting for Albies.

At the hot corner, Adonis Garcia probably showed enough down the stretch to obviate the need for a short-term signing. After a rough start, the 31-year-old posted a .293/.333/.456 batting line with nine home runs over his 301 plate appearances and drew more promising reviews of his glovework down the stretch. He could be pushed in camp, though, by youngster Rio Ruiz, who had a solid .271/.355/.400 campaign at Triple-A in his age-22 season. Though there’s not a need here, strictly speaking, it is an area where the team could look to upgrade if there’s a chance to add a high-quality player.

If there’s a spot other than the rotation that will almost certainly see some change, it’s behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will be back after a strong season in which he ran up a 109 OPS+ while appearing in 83 games. Journeyman Anthony Recker is controllable as well, and was even more impressive (.278/.394/.433) in his 112 plate appearances. But with Opening Day starter A.J. Pierzynski set to depart, and a mandate to improve, there has been plenty of chatter about the possibilities for an upgrade.

The free agent catching market took a huge hit with the recent ACL tear of Wilson Ramos, and it had already lost Francisco Cervelli when he agreed to an extension with the Pirates earlier in the season. But there are still at least a few near-everyday players set to reach the open market — chiefly, Matt Wieters (who has ties to the Atlanta area) and Jason Castro — and the trade market could provide some avenues as well. Atlanta has been connected, in particular, with long-time star Brian McCann, though it doesn’t seem as if the Yankees will part with him for quite as low a price as the Braves would prefer to pay. A bounceback candidate such as Derek Norris could also be pursued if the team’s preferred options aren’t achievable.

All told, there are a number of places on this roster that a clear contending team would deem in need of an upgrade. For Atlanta, though, there needs to be greater balance, lest future commitments again tie the organization’s hands. Coppolella has said that the club will have much more to spend than usual, but a truly all-in approach would be a major surprise. What investments the team does make figure to play a fairly significant role in dictating the team’s timeline to return to true contention.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

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Wilson Ramos Set For Knee Surgery; Expects Seven Month Rehab

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2016 at 4:05pm CDT

Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos, who’s set to hit the open market in a few weeks’ time, will undergo surgery on Friday to repair both the ACL and meniscus in his right knee, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson tweets. Ramos says that he expects roughly a seven-month rehab timeline.

The procedure itself was a foregone conclusion, of course, but these details do add a bit more information to the overall picture. Adding the meniscus work probably isn’t a major issue; if anything, perhaps it’s good news that other, more structurally significant ligaments were not impacted.

In terms of timeline, it seems fairly safe to assume that seven months is on the optimistic side. That would put Ramos back in action by mid-May, assuming all proceeds well, though that probably doesn’t mean he’ll be throwing on the catching gear in a major league park at that point.

While he’ll probably be able to begin some limited baseball activities as the knee gains strength, and will certainly be able to do weight work, Ramos will need to rebuild his conditioning even after he’s cleared. And he’ll also need to work back to game speed in all departments. Ramos himself has suggested that he may need to spend some time in a DH role in order to get back to the field as soon as possible.

All said, seven months sounds like a fairly promising timeline — especially since this is the second time that Ramos has undergone ACL surgery to that knee. It remains largely uncertain what kind of market interest he’ll receive this winter. Contending teams may be hesitant to rely on him at all behind the plate in 2017, while others may be interested in a long-term investment in hopes of finding a nice value. Ramos’s own risk tolerance and personal preferences will obviously play a major role as well. All told, his ultimate free agent contract is as difficult to predict as any in recent memory.

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Washington Nationals Wilson Ramos

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | October 11, 2016 at 2:10pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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MLBTR Chats

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Rays Outright Decker, Marks, Querecuto

By Steve Adams | October 11, 2016 at 2:09pm CDT

Teams are quickly cleaning house this time of year, and the Rays vacated several roster spots over the past weekend, outrighting outfielder Jaff Decker, left-hander Justin Marks and infielder Juniel Querecuto off the 40-man roster this weekend, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Decker has elected free agency, per Topkin (Twitter link), and the other pair has the right to do so as well. Dana Eveland, too, was outrighted and elected free agency, as noted by Topkin yesterday.

Decker, 26 (27 in February), received the most big league time of the bunch but didn’t exactly excel in his brief time with the Rays. In 57 plate appearances, the former No. 42 overall draft pick batted .154/.211/.173. It’s been more than five years since Decker was considered a Top 100 prospect, but he does have a solid line in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level, where he’s batted .266/.368/.409 with 31 homers in 1506 plate appearances. He’ll likely land elsewhere on a minor league deal this winter and hope to compete for an opportunity to prove himself in the Majors, where he’s managed just a .477 OPS in 129 PAs.

Marks, meanwhile, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2014 this past year and tossed nine innings for the Rays while allowing only one run. However, the 28-year-old (29 in January) also yielded seven hits and walked nine men against just six strikeouts in that time, exhibiting some obviously troubling issues with control. His Triple-A work was encouraging, though, as he pitched 140 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate. Given the dearth of starting pitching talent available this winter, some team figures to look at that solid performance and consider him a possible depth piece.

Querecuto, 24, made his MLB debut this year when he tallied 11 plate appearances in late September and collected a triple for his first and only big league hit. The Venezuela native signed with Tampa Bay back in 2009 and spent this past year playing third base, second base and shortstop (listed in order of frequency) between Double-A and Triple-A, where he hit a combined .241/.298/.341 in 375 plate appearances.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Jaff Decker Justin Marks

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Kole Calhoun To Undergo Core Muscle Surgery

By Steve Adams | October 11, 2016 at 11:51am CDT

The Angels announced on Tuesday that right fielder Kole Calhoun will undergo surgery to repair a “bilateral core muscle injury” today. The operation comes with a recovery timeline of six to eight weeks, after which the Halos are anticipating a normal offseason. Per the announcement, the team expects Calhoun to be ready for Spring Training.

Calhoun, 28, enjoyed yet another quietly excellent season, further building on his resume as a highly productive but largely unheralded talent. The soon-to-be 29-year-old (Friday) posted a very solid .271/.348/.438 batting line with 18 homers, 35 doubles and five triples this season while also posting career-best walk (10 percent) and strikeout rates (17.6 percent). In addition to his quality work at the plate — Calhoun has batted .267/.329/.438 and averaged 23 homers per 162 games over the past four seasons — the former eighth-round pick rates as an above-average defender in right field by measure of both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and he’s also notched positive baserunning contributions on a yearly basis, per Fangraphs.

Calhoun’s strong all-around play has him in line for a projected salary of $6.9MM in 2017, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — a sizable raise from the $3.4MM payday he took home last winter when his service time landed him directly on the Super Two cutoff. He’s controllable for another three seasons via the arbitration process and serves as a reminder of the potential financial importance that Super Two status carries for players. Relatively comparable outfielders to Calhoun such as Marcell Ozuna and Wil Myers are projected at $4.5MM and $4.7MM, respectively, but Calhoun has topped each by more than $2MM in projected earning capacity after already banking $3.4MM despite being in the same service class. That level of additional earning power is a driving factor behind many teams’ decisions to hold off on promoting their top prospects until June, as the earnings will only compound over time. (Calhoun’s 2018 raise will now be based off a $6.9MM salary as opposed to something in the mid-$4MM range.)

Of course, the Angels will hope that there are no lingering effects from the core muscle operation that Calhoun will undergo. While core muscle surgery is not uncommon, Calhoun’s is listed as bilateral in nature, indicating that there are multiple areas in need of repair. And we’ve seen recent examples of such an operation having a lasting impact on players throughout the course of the season immediately following the surgery (Justin Verlander in 2014, Denard Span in 2015), even if that level of ripple effect isn’t necessarily the norm. The fact that he’s undergoing the procedure so early in the offseason certainly bodes well for him and the Angels, though, as Calhoun will have virtually the entire offseason to recover. (Verlander and Span, on the other hand, had their respective surgeries in early January and early March.)

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Los Angeles Angels Kole Calhoun

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No Plans For Syndergaard, Cabrera To Undergo Offseason Surgery

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2016 at 9:35am CDT

OCT. 11: Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports that shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera will not require offseason surgery, either. Cabrera met with doctors following the Mets’ elimination from the Wild Card game for an evaluation of a knee injury that he played through for the majority of the season, and surgery was reportedly a possible outcome. Instead, he’ll take an additional two weeks of rest before beginning his offseason regime, which will be monitored by medical officials over the course of the winter to ensure that his left patellar tendon is properly healed.

Cabrera will play out the second season of a two-year, $18.5MM contract with the Mets in 2017, and the Mets also hold an affordable club option over his services for the 2018 campaign. That contract looks to be one of the offseason’s biggest bargains, in retrospect, as Cabrera batted .280/.336/.474 with 23 home runs, 30 doubles and a triple over the course of the season en route to a season that both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference pegged at roughly three wins above replacement. He’ll earn $25MM over three years if that 2018 option is exercised next winter.

OCT. 10: Though it was revealed during the season that Noah Syndergaard had been diagnosed with a bone spur, he won’t require offseason surgery to correct the issue, per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (Twitter link). That has generally been the expectation since the news trickled out in late June.

It is certainly a good sign for the Mets that Syndergaard will enter spring camp next year after a normal winter. He ended up with only a modest increase in innings on the year. The 24-year-old ultimately tossed 190 2/3 innings after his appearance in the NLDS, but had already racked up 179 2/3 frames in 2015 (including his five Triple-A starts).

New York is no doubt hoping that the outstanding Syndergaard will not only remain in good health, but will be joined in that classification by his rotation mates. Steven Matz recently had his own, much more significant bone spur removed in a procedure recently. Jacob deGrom’s season ended early when he checked in for a surgery in which his ulnar nerve was re-positioned. And, of course, Matt Harvey is the biggest question mark of all after undergoing a procedure to address thoracic outlet syndrome.

Syndergaard is now the unquestioned ace of the staff after posting a 2.60 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. While it seems reasonable to expect Matz and deGrom to line up behind him, the remainder of the rotation is a bit uncertain. Zack Wheeler is still an option but he hasn’t thrown since 2014 and hasn’t enjoyed a straightforward return from Tommy John surgery. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo both showed well in limited outings, but haven’t yet fully established themselves in the majors. The only Mets hurler who didn’t miss a start was 43-year-old Bartolo Colon, who spun 191 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball, but he’s a free agent. Given the state of affairs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team move to keep him in the fold for a fourth-straight campaign.

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New York Mets Asdrubal Cabrera Noah Syndergaard

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