White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has opted out of the remaining three years and $34MM on his guaranteed contract and will enter arbitration for his remaining three years of club control, reports Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Abreu originally signed a six-year, $68MM contract with the ChiSox, but that contract allowed him to enter the arbitration process whenever he was deemed eligible. With three years of big league service time now under his belt, this offseason marks the earliest juncture at which he’d have been able to do so.
Abreu earned $10MM this past season under the guaranteed phase of his six-year deal and would’ve earned $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019 had he not opted out. However, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explored, the arbitration process figures to be more lucrative for the Cuban-born slugger. Arbitration raises are based on previous salaries, but Abreu’s $10MM 2016 salary isn’t technically the figure from which he’ll receive a raise, as with contracts such as the one on which Abreu currently plays, the signing bonus must be annualized and factored in as well. Abreu’s deal contained a $10MM signing bonus, so adding one sixth of that sum ($1.66MM) to last year’s salary gives him an arbitration base of toughly $11.66MM. (Abreu’s agents could try to argue that the bonus should be pro-rated over three years, as he’s opting out of three guaranteed years, but it’s unclear if they’d be successful in that endeavor; at the very least $11.66MM is the floor on which his raise will be determined.)
As Tim also noted in that exploration of Abreu’s unique contract situation, though, Abreu also can’t be given a standard raise on top of that base. Abreu’s numbers to date compare favorably to Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, but Stanton earned $6.5MM in his first trip through arbitration. Abreu is already north of that and wouldn’t be boosted an additional $6.5MM on top of his current salary, but he also isn’t in line for a cut to that mark either. More realistically, he’ll gain some form of token raise atop his “on-paper” salary of $11.66MM, which prompted Tim to project a $12MM salary for him in the event of opting into arbitration. (For further explanation on the fine details of Abreu’s case, I’d recommend checking out Tim’s piece in its entirety, as it does a fine job highlighting the complexities associated with this type of Major League contract.)
Abreu, 30 in January, hit .293/.353/.468 this season and swatted 25 homers. His offense has taken a step back in each of his seasons since his brilliant Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014, but he remains a considerably above average bat and should do well from this point forth in arbitration, as whatever price the Sox and Abreu’s camp determine this winter will be the baseline for his second trip through arbitration. Of course, it’s also not entirely certain that Abreu will even remain with the White Sox long term. While GM Rick Hahn hasn’t outright said that he’s planning to orchestrate a fire sale, the South Siders do seem more apt than ever to listen to trade pitches on their top veteran players, and Abreu certainly fits that bill. Hahn spoke earlier this winter of “focusing on longer-term benefits,” and interested parties could subsequently make the Sox strong offers for stars such as Abreu, Chris Sale and/or Jose Quintana. Conversely, the Sox could simply be opportunistic in listening to offers on shorter-term commodities like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, though certainly neither veteran comes with the type of value that Chicago’s more controllable assets carry.
If a fire sale is coming the should first fire Williams. Don’t let him get his hands on the rebuild process.
Reinsdorf won’t get rid of him. He’d have to leave on his own. We’re screwed.
The prospect cost for a team to acquire Jose Abreu AND Chris Sale must be out of this world. I hope mr.luhnow at the very least makes the call to find out
I get what you saying as an Astro fan but as for Jose Abreu’s value in MLB consider this:
The prospect cost would be more for Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton than Abreu, who are all under somewhat comparable and affordable team control. There would be more demand for the quality starting pitching that Sale and Quintana offer, as well as the total package that Eaton represents offensively and defensively.
Abreu has value as a nice bat but is limited defensively and may be bested suited to DH. There is less current demand in MLB for his position and skill set, especially among contending teams. If skeptical, just compare the average WAR of each of these players in their time with the White Sox as regulars. Abreu would be fourth.
You bring up a solid point. The majority of teams already have a decent enough first baseman, so his cost wouldn’t be at all comparable to a guy like Chris Sale. But like you said, I’m an Astro fan, it’s fun to dream about a dynamic duo coming to Houston to shake things up. That being said, realistically, I think I’d prefer the price and value of E.E. over Abreu, and think it’d be somewhat more reasonable, at that point, to go out and get a guy like Archer, who will be controlled until the 2020 offseason.
Among contenders, the Nationals, Rangers and your Astros would be most in need of an upgrade at 1B. Abreu could also be a DH option for the latter two, although the White Sox preference would be to trade him out the American League, same as Chris Sale.
With their lack of offense, I’m guessing that Abreu stays on the South Side even in the event of a rebuild this offseason. He’s probably worth more to the White Sox than what they are likely to receive back in prospects or their preference of MLB ready young talent.
“Arbitration raises are based on previous salaries…. Abreu’s [has]… an arbitration base of toughly $11.66MM.”
vs.
“Abreu also can’t be given a standard raise on top of that base. Abreu’s numbers to date compare favorably to Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, but Stanton earned $6.5MM in his first trip through arbitration. Abreu is already north of that and wouldn’t be boosted an additional $6.5MM on top of his current salary”
Steve/Tim,
Why? Why is having new arb players’ raises be comparable to past players’ arb raises the rule and yet Abreu “can’t” and “won’t” follow the rule? Like I get the reasoning for why one would feel the way you guys do about how it will play out, but why are you saying it definitively won’t follow the established pattern of raise-mimickry that you guys acknowledge? Is this based on insider info from arb panel members? If not then your sureness about it makes no sense to me.
I don’t think you’re quite following what is being stated here. We aren’t arguing that Abreu doesn’t get to participate in some rule that everyone else does. We are saying that, when you run him as a typical first-time arb player, he doesn’t earn enough to move past his prior year’s salary. And that he doesn’t get to just add on top of that salary floor by reference to “comps” — that doesn’t make sense for a first-time arb guy.
Stanton wasn’t getting a raise when he got $6.5MM — it was his first-year arb salary. The notion of raises from a starting point is for players going through arb a second time, when they are adding on top of their prior arb salary.
This (Abreu) is about establishing a starting point. Tim’s discussion of a raise is just him suggesting that perhaps the team will feel compelled to give him a token bump
And our stance here is based upon research/discussions. I think the site’s record is pretty clear: we don’t run around making proclamations about things.
Good answer, that first year arb is looked at as a set figure more than as a raise off previous year’s salaries. I always looked at it as a raise off the previous year’s salary, which is almost always around the minimum. Looking at Aroldis Chapman’s first year of arbitration, what you’re saying makes sense.
But then I don’t quite get why he would get ~$10m-$11m or whatever you guys predicted. Like normally as a first year arb player Abreu would get $5m-$6m. Would they be giving him the higher figure just for PR purposes, to not get him disgruntled about reduced salary? Because if they could give him $6m rather than $11m, that would result in saving $15m over the next three years, which is kind of a ton for a medium-payroll team.
Or does the 80% rule for arb raises apply even though this is first year arb rather than a raise, like if a guy makes $10m in one year of arb then you can offer him no less than $8m the next year? Even if that applies, surely they would win a hearing offering him ~$8m versus the $11m or whatever he would file for as $8m is closer to the $6m he would normally get as first year arb. Even that difference would result in like $8m they would save over the next three years so I don’t get how they would pay so much just to look good or save face.
The 80% rule is a hard rule. But there’s also a general guideline that players almost never take cuts in arb. So Abreu’s 2016 salary sets a floor. Even though he’d never reach that by typical arb calculations, he has been productive and has played a lot, so White Sox probably won’t have any real cause to argue for a reduction. Basically, they wouldn’t try that b/c they’d think they would lose in arb (and possibly draw some bad PR along the way), and Abreu has a few arguments for boosting his salary, so there’s something at stake in the other direction.
It should also be noted that the White Sox have a history of avoiding arbitration hearings with their eligible players, not only for public relations reasons but mainly to avert a contentious relationship that might result from the proceedings. It’s been 2001 since the club last took a player to arbitration. Closer Keith Foulke won the case but admitted afterward his dislike for the process, one that had the White Sox presenting a host of negative statistics to bolster their argument.
Williams needs to go. Won’t happen unless he walks on his own for sure. I’d like to see what Hahn could do without Williams being involved.
Williams should be gone, but Hahn’s hands are still tied with Jerry Reinsdorf trying to take all his money to the grave with him. The organization is poorly run–look at the stadium sponsorship fiasco. No competent owner/manager agrees to that. I’m embarrassed to call myself a White Sox fan these days, and that’s a shame.
Now is the time to trade Abreu. I’m not so sure he is that 30 homer guy going forward after his first half, at least while on the White Sox.
After his first half batting .272 with 11 HRs in 84 games you might have been right, but then you are absolutely wrong when he batted .320 with 14 HRs in 78 games the second half. I’ll take his most recent performance to suggest his future performance
I just don’t think he is as motivated on the White Sox. I’m not doubting his ability to produce in general, I just see him as a 25-90-.285 guy now. I think it will take a change of scenery for him to take it back to the next level of 30+/100+ we saw when he first arrived. While both are valuable outputs for sure, now just seems like the perfect time to trade him for the biggest return while everything still looks perfect on paper.
Saying Williams should go Is saying so should the owner and GM as they are all tied to each other. If I’m sox I’d try and sign ces and give it one more shot. If they aren’t good they can trade everyone at deadline.
They’ve had multiple opportunities to sign slugging outfielders like Cespedes. They’ve failed to do so because the owner won’t commit to a big contract for longer than 3 years. They’re incredibly cheap for a large market team. The roster is not good, and since they won’t make the commitments necessary to contend, a complete rebuild is the only other option available.
No surprise here. Jose Abreu’s offensive production figures to remain steady or improve over the next 3 years. His primary risk in voiding the guaranteed money and opting into arbitration is injury which is lessened somewhat by the position he plays and the fact he is not a threat on the bases. As he ages, he may also find himself getting more AB’s in the DH role since his defense is hardly stellar at 1B.
Bottom line: Abreu figures to make significantly more money in his three remaining arbitration years or in signing a new contract extension, whether with the White Sox or a team he may be traded to if the organization opts to rebuild without him.
Yeah like you said his cost v risk for opting in arb the positives outweighs the negatives. He can’t lose significant money really, but he can gain significant money. At ~11.3 that’s only .700 less than his estimated 12 mill salary in 19. So even if injury were to lead to him out this year he still sees a raise from his original contract next year. So really the only way he looses is he gets traded and has two injured seasons and gets NTd. But chances are if a teams trades all those prospects they are riding out the three years.
Abreu to the Astros sounds good to me! Abreu is younger and much cheaper than E.E. so fits long term more so if they can negotiate an extension. Tucker should be the main target.
If they come to an agreement does he become a free agent?
No, he’s controlled for three more years no matter what team he’s on, White Sox or someone else (by trade).
I meant don’t but I don’t know if that affects your answer.
Does Abreu have as high trade value as Sale?
No. He’s valuable sure, but not anywhere on the level of Sale or Quintana
As already stated on this comment board:
The prospect cost would be more for Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton than Abreu, who are all under somewhat comparable and affordable team control. There would be more demand for the quality starting pitching that Sale and Quintana offer, as well as the total package that Eaton represents offensively and defensively.
Abreu has value as a nice bat but is limited defensively and may be bested suited to DH. There is less current demand in MLB for his position and skill set, especially among contending teams. If skeptical, just compare the average WAR of each of these players in their time with the White Sox as regulars. Abreu would be fourth.
Btmfd.