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Archives for November 2016

Marlins Notes: Wilson, Niese, Ozuna, Trades

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Here’s the latest from south Florida…

  • The Marlins have some interest in veteran lefty C.J. Wilson, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  Wilson “isn’t on the verge of making a decision” about his next team, though the southpaw does intend to play in 2017 after being sidelined since July 2015 due to elbow and shoulder injuries.  Jackson notes that Miami had interest in Wilson the last time he was a free agent, prior to his signing a five-year, $77.5MM deal with the Angels following the 2011 season.
  • In another item from Jackson, he wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins pursue left-hander Jon Niese.  Like Wilson, Niese is another veteran who’d be available at a relatively low price, which fits the Marlins’ plans of adding starting pitching without breaking the bank.  Niese posted a 5.50 ERA over 121 innings with the Pirates and Mets last season, delivering his usual low-strikeout, high-grounder arsenal but allowing a whopping 22.1% home run rate.  A move to Marlins Park would theoretically help Niese avoid the long ball, though PNC Park and Citi Field also aren’t generally homer-friendly stadiums.  Niese is a free agent after the Mets declined his $10MM club option for 2017, instead paying the lefty a $500K buyout.
  • Marcell Ozuna has often been cited as a potential trade chip for Miami, though MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro believes that dealing Ozuna and then spending big to sign another outfielder (i.e. Dexter Fowler) doesn’t make financial sense.  Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich are both getting raises next year, so signing a player like Fowler would put the Fish in line for roughly $42MM in salary for just three outfielders.  If Ozuna was to be dealt, the more likely scenario for a replacement is that the Marlins sign a short-term veteran to platoon with Ichiro Suzuki.
  • Also as part of Frisaro’s mailbag piece, he looks at the Marlins’ need for pitching and opines that Doug Fister would be a good fit in Miami.  If Frisaro was in charge, he would look to free agency rather than the trade market since he would “be really reluctant to deal any of the core position players off the big league roster” due to “a shortage of organizational depth.”

Diamondbacks Notes: Segura/Walker Trade, Haniger, Ray

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Wednesday’s big five-player trade between the Diamondbacks and Mariners is still generating headlines in the desert.  Here’s some further analysis of the deal, plus more from Arizona…

  • While Jean Segura and Taijuan Walker are the trade’s headline players, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron observes that outfielder Mitch Haniger’s development will be a key aspect of the deal for Seattle.  Haniger could end up as “the real get in this deal for the Mariners” if his swing changes hold and he continues to flash an above-average outfield glove, particularly as a center fielder.  Haniger’s right-handed bat already makes him a valuable platoon or bench piece on a Mariners roster that has three left-handed hitters (Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Ben Gamel) slated for starting outfield roles.  Overall, Cameron likes the deal for Arizona, as Haniger and prospect Zac Curtis were mostly expendable parts for the D’Backs and Walker has considerable breakout potential.
  • “It’s a trade that could turn into a win-win for both organizations or it could easily blow up for either team,” ESPN’s David Schoenfield writes in his analysis of the five players in the deal, as “all five players are difficult to project moving forward.”  Schoenfield expects the Mariners to trade for more pitching, which might require a large payroll increase from 2016, though Schoenfield figures Seattle is a clearly all-in on competing next season.
  • Southpaw Robbie Ray posted a 4.90 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 3.07 K/BB rate over 174 1/3 innings for the D’Backs last season, and as ESPN.com’s Sam Miller notes, Ray’s year also served as an interesting test case for the different ways player value is measured.  Depending on who you ask, last season Ray was either barely above replacement level (0.7 bWAR from Baseball Reference), one of the game’s better starters (3.0 fWAR from Fangraphs) or a top-15 starter in the game (4.82 WARP from Baseball Prospectus).

Sean O’Sullivan Signs With KBO’s Nexen Heroes

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Righty Sean O’Sullivan has signed on with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Nexen Heroes, the team announced (Korean language announcement; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.1MM salary.

The 29-year-old hurler has seen action in parts of seven major league campaigns, appearing with the Angels, Royals, Padres, Phillies, and (most recently) Red Sox. All told, he’s provided 323 2/3 innings, but owns a sub-optimal 6.01 ERA with 4.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 to go with a 40.1% groundball rate. The long ball has been a problem, as O’Sullivan has allowed 1.64 home runs per nine innings pitched.

O’Sullivan made four starts and one relief appearance last year for Boston, but spent most of the year (and large parts of the past eight seasons) pitching at Triple-A. The former third-round draft pick threw 105 1/3 frames in 19 starts in the highest level of the minors, posting a 4.02 ERA but carrying a fairly promising 7.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9.

Prospect & International Notes: AFL, Rule 5, Draft, Trafficking

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With the Arizona Fall League wrapping up, the MLB.com Pipeline team broke down the top players at each position. Perhaps no single prospect impressed to the extent of Gleyber Torres, the Yankees shortstop who was acquired in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Live-armed Red Sox righty Michael Kopech and Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer were among the other high-profile young players who impressed, but a variety of lesser-known names also drew attention.

Here are some more prospect and international notes from around the game:

  • Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper broke down the top Rule 5 draft candidates. Teams always have to balance roster needs with their assessments of young players who are eligible for the draft, and every year at least a dozen or so players who aren’t added to a 40-man roster will be plucked by another organization. This time around, as usual, many of the most plausible Rule 5 options are pitchers. But two position players warranted mention from Cooper as well: Pirates third baseman Eric Wood and Mets utility infielder Phillip Evans. Both have posted much better numbers of late, but apparently did not do quite enough to convince their organizations of their value — or, perhaps, of their ability to stick on another team’s active roster for a full season.
  • The first player that Cooper notes, Padres righty Yimmi Brasoban, seems an intriguing candidate for the Rule 5 since he possesses a big fastball and quality slider that could make him a useful bullpen piece. But San Diego’s decision to leave him unprotected may well be due to elbow issues, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. The young reliever is undergoing stem cell and platelet-rich plasma treatments, suggesting he may be trying to stave off a surgical option. We have seen injured players go in the Rule 5 before; if they aren’t able to meet the active-duty requirements in the season following the draft, they can reach it in future campaigns.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America argues that Major League Baseball would be better served to increase its current bonus pool limitations for international players than to institute an international draft. Low-revenue clubs are able to compete for top talent in the current system, he explains, so there’s no compelling reason in that regard to move to a draft. The problem, per Badler, is that the current signing levels are just too low, which has led many teams in baseball to exceed the limitations and accept future bonus limitations. His solution is to significantly boost the overall pool bonus amounts, make them equal for all teams, and increase the penalties for exceeding the pool. That — or some other hypothetical system — would still allow for cost containment while also serving other interests, Badler argues, including competitive balance and equal opportunities for all teams and players.
  • There are new details in the human trafficking case against agent Bart Hernandez, as Jose Pagliery of CNN.com reports. Hernandez was allegedly involved in a scheme with a violent smuggler, the government alleges, with tens of millions of dollars flowing to the masterminds after Cuban ballplayers such as Jose Abreu and Yoenis Cespedes landed large bonuses with major league organizations. While the players were treated more humanely than the average citizens who were also being moved in the alleged conspiracy, they were nevertheless treated like prisoners and coerced into signing with Hernandez, per the charges.

Free Agent Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

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Edwin Encarnacion delivered another big season in 2016 and even added a signature postseason moment (his walkoff homer in the Blue Jays’ wild card win over the Orioles) to his resume.  After five straight years of excellent numbers, he is well-positioned to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.

Strengths/Pros

Encarnacion’s signature elbow extension during his home run trot has become known around Canada as “taking the parrot for a walk,” and Polly has gotten more than her share of exercise over the last five years.  Since breaking out during the 2012 season, Encarnacion has been nothing less than one of the best hitters in baseball, batting .272/.367/.544 with 193 homers (the second-highest total in baseball in that span), 550 RBI (also second), a 146 wRC+ (seventh) and 451 runs scored (tied for eighth).  He has generated 20.2 fWAR in that stretch based almost entirely on his potent right-handed bat.  As one might expect, Encarnacion draws a large number of walks (12.5 percent since 2012).  Unlike many sluggers, though, Encarnacion isn’t especially strikeout prone, as he’s punched out in just 15.1 percent of his plate appearances dating back to that 2012 breakout.

Encarnacion’s emergence as the plate more or less coincided with his being moved off third base and into a first base/DH role, as he was able to more completely focus on hitting and no longer had to worry about his infamous glovework. (When your actual nickname is “E5,” a position change is long overdue.)  While Encarnacion posted subpar defensive metrics in his first few years at first, he has actually been a passable first baseman over the last two seasons as per the UZR/150 metric (+4.1).  Paul Kinzer, Encarnacion’s agent, believes his client has proven himself as “a solid first baseman,” and a viable option for National League teams.Edwin Encarnacion

Yoenis Cespedes is three years younger than Encarnacion and has more defensive value as a left fielder, which is why he topped MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2016-17 offseason.  Encarnacion, however, finished second on that list, a rarity for a player of his age.

Weaknesses/Cons

As Encarnacion enters his age-34 season, the most obvious question is simple: how long can he keep up his elite production?  Traditionally quite good at putting the bat on the ball, Encarnacion’s contact rate has dropped rather sharply over the last two years while his swinging strike rate has risen.  He posted the second-highest strikeout rate (19.7%) of his career last season, finishing well above his 16.2% career average.  Encarnacion’s 134 wRC+ was also his lowest in five years, though obviously that’s still an excellent number and only a borderline sign of “decline.”

A sneaky-good stolen base threat early in his career, Encarnacion has been a below-average baserunner in each of the last two seasons.  Without much speed and fringy defensive worth, Encarnacion’s value is almost entirely tied up in his bat.  Teams need to decide if they’re willing to risk giving a $20MM+ average annual value to a player who may not be worth that money even in 2017 if he takes even a small step back at the plate.

His recent UZR/150 performance aside, it’s rather hard to imagine Encarnacion suddenly becoming a reliable defender at this point in his career, especially if he doesn’t have the security of the DH spot for regular rest.  Many bat-first players gradually shift from being regular defenders to taking more and more time in the DH slot as they move into their mid-30s, so it would be rather unusual to see Encarnacion take the opposite route by signing with an NL team.

Encarnacion has undergone two wrist surgeries during his career, missed about five weeks with a quad strain in 2014 and has battled some shoulder and finger ailments.  He did play in a career-high 160 games last season, though again, that was with the help of the DH spot to give him plenty of recovery time.  An NL team would be taking a risk in counting on Encarnacion to stay both healthy and productive playing every day as a first baseman.

Personal

Encarnacion and his partner Jennifer have one child, who bears his father’s name. A native of the Dominican Republic, Encarnacion ended up attending high school in Puerto Rico, making him eligible for the draft. He was taken in the ninth round by the Rangers in 2000, ended up being dealt to the Reds in 2001, and broke into the bigs with Cincinnati in 2005.

Though he showed glimpses of his eventual power potential as a Red, Encarnacion’s lack of prowess at third base made him a liability (a move to first base wasn’t an option in Cincy thanks to Sean Casey and then Joey Votto).  The Reds dealt Encarnacion to the Blue Jays as part of a three-player package for Scott Rolen at the 2009 trade deadline, though Encarnacion was included not because Toronto wanted him, but to offset Rolen’s salary. He wasn’t an immediate hit in Toronto, either.  In fact, the Jays actually let Encarnacion go to the A’s on a waiver claim after the 2010 season, though Oakland non-tendered him a month later and the Jays re-signed the slugger.

Midway through his breakout 2012 season, Encarnacion signed a $27MM extension covering the 2013-15 seasons, plus a $10MM club option for 2016.  That extension ended up being a marvelous bargain for the Jays, though given how unsettled Encarnacion’s career had been to that point, it’s hard to fault him for wanting to lock in a healthy guaranteed deal.

Last August, a lawsuit was brought against Encarnacion, alleging that he knowingly infected a woman with two sexually-transmitted diseases.  Kinzer described the lawsuit as “completely inappropriate and meritless,” and Encarnacion’s attorneys sought to have the motion thrown out of court in October.  As Blue Jays Nation’s John Lott noted, the incident could technically fall under the purview of MLB’s domestic violence policy, though it isn’t known whether or not the league is investigating the situation.  Such lawsuits have been known to take years to be resolved or settled, so it’s hard to gauge whether or not the civil suit will have an impact on Encarnacion’s free agency.

Market

Encarnacion unsurprisingly rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer, so any club that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick as compensation.  That’s a small price to pay for a suitor, as players at the top of the market rarely have to worry about the QO’s effect on their asking price.  While there are several notable first basemen and designated hitters on the open market this winter (Mark Trumbo, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss and perhaps even long-time teammate Jose Bautista if right field is no longer in Bautista’s future), Encarnacion is a clear cut above the pack in terms of recent production.

The Blue Jays reportedly made Encarnacion a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM prior to their signing of Kendrys Morales, and even with Morales now in the fold for regular DH/first base duty, the Jays are still reportedly exploring the possibility of bringing Encarnacion back.  The two sides discussed an extension during Spring Training, though since the Jays were reportedly only willing to give Encarnacion two guaranteed years (and multiple club options), talks didn’t get very far.

The Red Sox have long been linked to Encarnacion, who fits as either a straight replacement for David Ortiz at DH or rotating between both DH and first base with Hanley Ramirez so both sluggers can stay fresh.  Boston, however, has yet to begin its rumored pursuit of Encarnacion, whether due to uncertainty about the luxury tax limit in the new collective bargaining agreement or perhaps simply out of a preference to not lock up the DH spot to an aging player on a long-term deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Encarnacion would wind up in a Red Sox uniform, and it’s hard to rule Boston out entirely until either the team makes an alternate move or Encarnacion puts pen to paper elsewhere.

The Yankees, Astros, Rangers (all with holes to fill at first and/or DH) have all reportedly made contact with Encarnacion.  Looking at speculative fits, the Orioles or White Sox could also offer first base/DH time-shares, teaming Encarnacion up with Chris Davis and Jose Abreu, respectively.  Chicago is probably a long shot, however, since the Sox could be a seller rather than a buyer this winter.

Looking to the National League, the Rockies and Marlins have needs at first but may not be able to meet Encarnacion’s asking price.  There actually aren’t that many NL clubs that can both afford Encarnacion and have a need at first base, so the lack of a clear fit may be a bigger issue for Encarnacion in the Senior Circuit than the lack of the DH spot.  A mystery NL team could emerge as a suitor due to a trade, injury or position switch, though for now, I’d expect Encarnacion to remain in the American League.

Expected Contract

Mid-30’s sluggers such as Victor Martinez and Nelson Cruz have managed to land pricey four-year deals in free agency, and Encarnacion should be no different, though his track record will score him significantly more guaranteed money than Cruz or V-Mart.  A five-year deal isn’t out of the question, though with the majority of Encarnacion’s interest likely to be limited to just American League teams, it’s probably safer to just project a four-year deal that will take Encarnacion through his age-37 season.  MLBTR projects Encarnacion to sign a four-year, $92MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Roger Bernadina To Sign With Korea’s Kia Tigers

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Former big league outfielder Roger Bernadina is headed to Korea to join the Kia Tigers, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports on Twitter. Terms of the deal are not known at this time.

Bernadina, 32, hasn’t cracked the majors since 2014, but has accumulated 1,480 plate appearances over parts of seven seasons. All told, he owns a .236/.307/.354 batting line with 28 home runs and 59 stolen bases.

A native of Curacao, Bernadina played a significant role with the Nationals earlier in his career, with his best season coinciding with D.C.’s breakout 2012 campaign. He ultimately appeared in the majors in six separate years with the Nats and also saw brief stints with the Phillies, Reds, and Dodgers.

Most recently, Bernadina suited up at Triple-A in the Mets organization. He was rather productive there, slashing .292/.376/.465 and swiping twenty bags. That showing suggests there’s still some life left in his legs and bat, even if he’s not quite a major league caliber player at this stage.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Bautista

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Jose Bautista’s offseason suitors will have to weigh his disappointing 2016 season against his track record as one of baseball’s top sluggers.

Strengths/Pros

While Bautista had a down year last season, it was far from being an actually “bad” year.  Indeed, most players would be very satisfied hitting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and 24 doubles over 517 plate appearances.  Bautista’s 122 wRC+ indicates that he still generated 22% more runs than a league average batter, and of all free agent hitters with at least 400 PA last year, only seven topped Bautista’s mark of 122.

With a career .266 BABIP, Bautista has never received too much luck from the batted-ball gods, though it could be argued that his .255 BABIP in 2016 was particularly lacking in fortune.  Bautista had a career-high line drive rate of 18.8%, and he made hard contact on a whopping 41% of his balls in play, both of which were career-highs.  Bautista’s vaunted batting eye made him productive even when he didn’t make contact, with a 16.8% walk rate that ranked third in all of baseball (behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) and an 0.84% walk-to-strikeout rate that tied him for 12th among all hitters.Jose Bautista (vertical)

Bautista was bothered by a sore hip flexor in May and then had two separate DL stints (with turf toe and a left knee sprain, respectively) that limited him to 116 games.  It could simply be that the nagging injuries and the somewhat stop-and-start nature of his season prevented Bautista from ever really getting into a groove.  Bautista is known to keep himself in good physical condition, and he played in 308 of 324 games in 2014-15.

And of course, even with his 2016 season in mind, Bautista is still easily one of the decade’s best hitters.  Since the start of the 2010 campaign, Bautista leads all hitters in home runs (249) and isolated power (.278), while ranking second in walk rate (16%), fourth in wRC+ (152) and eighth in fWAR (33.8).  If 2016 was just an aberration, then Bautista’s next team could be signing him at a relative bargain.

Weaknesses/Cons

When a player is in his mid-30s, any signs of decline have to be taken as a red flag.  For every stat indicating that Bautista was more or less his old self last year, there was another that showed significant dropoff.  He posted his lowest batting average, slugging percentage, wRC+, wOBA (weighted on-base average) and isolated power numbers since his pre-breakout 2009 season, while also posting his highest strikeout rate since 2009.  Between 2010-15, Bautista made contact 70.5% of the time when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; that number plunged to just 60.4% in 2016.

Beyond just his issues at the plate, Bautista was only worth 1.4 fWAR (his lowest as a Blue Jay) last year in large part due to below-average baserunning and fielding metrics.  Bautista posted his second straight year of rough numbers in right field, and now has -11 Defensive Runs Scored and -11.2 UZR/150 over the last two seasons.

Jay Alou, Bautista’s agent, has said that his client is open to a move to left field or the infield, which should help Bautista’s market.  National League teams without the luxury of a DH spot, however, may be wary about signing a player entering his age-36 season without any guarantee that he can provide passable defense.  Bautista has only played 154 MLB innings as a first baseman and 410 innings as a left fielder; a return to third base would seem very unlikely at this stage of his career.

Beyond this season’s two DL trips, Bautista was also limited to 92 games in 2012 due to a bad wrist that required post-season surgery, and 118 games in 2013 due to a bruised hip that prematurely ended his season.  (In fairness to Bautista, both shutdowns were more than a little due to Toronto being miles out of the pennant race.)  He also battled a bad shoulder in 2015 that required him to receive more DH at-bats than usual, though that injury didn’t appear to impact his offensive production whatsoever.

Personal

Originally a 20th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2000 draft, Bautista’s rise from journeyman to superstar is one of baseball’s more unlikely breakout stories.  He played for five different organizations in the 2004 season (his rookie year) before settling back in Pittsburgh and posting middling numbers in semi-regular duty as a third baseman and outfielder.  Dealt to the Blue Jays in August 2008 for catcher Robinzon Diaz, Bautista still didn’t entirely break out until a swing overhaul under the tutelage of Toronto manager Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  The results were incredible — after managing just 59 career homers over his first 2038 PA in the bigs, Bautista exploded for 54 homers in 2010 and the rest is history.

Bautista’s outspoken personality made him a clubhouse leader in Toronto but also ruffled some feathers around the league, whether it’s questioning the strike zones of several umpires, getting involved in the most memorable on-field brawl in recent memory or his iconic bat flip home run in Game Five of the 2015 ALDS.  There hasn’t been any indication that Bautista’s attitude is necessarily impacting his free agent stock; if anything, Bautista has a reputation as an intense competitor.

Market

Needless to say, Bautista won’t be getting anything close to the massive asking price (five or six years for $150-$180MM) he reportedly floated during preseason extension talks with the Jays.  In fact, given his disappointing year, Bautista could’ve been justified in accepting the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer in the hopes of rebounding in 2017 and testing the market again next winter in search of a bigger contract.

Instead, he rejected the Blue Jays’ offer, so any club that signs him will have to give up its top unprotected draft pick for Bautista’s services.  As we’ve seen in the past, the qualifying offer can limit the market for anything less than superstar free agents.  Between the draft pick compensation, Bautista’s age, his declining defense and hitting numbers and the number of other first base/DH types on the market, Bautista could have a tough time finding what he believes is fair value.

On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore Bautista’s performance prior to 2016.  There will certainly be teams interested in seeing if Bautista can bounce back to his old form, and Bautista’s apparent willingness to shift out of right field will increase his list of suitors.

Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Astros or Mariners have multiple holes at DH, first base or the corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, switching positions on a near-daily basis to accommodate other players on the roster.  The Dodgers, and Giants have corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, and conceivably the A’s and Phillies could be added to the list if Bautista’s price drops or if he isn’t set on joining a contender.  The Rockies could sign Bautista as a first baseman with an eye towards giving him some time in the outfield if Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon are traded.  The Nationals somewhat surprisingly asked about Bautista at last summer’s trade deadline so they could be a suitor now; with Ryan Zimmerman still holding down first base in Washington, Bautista would have to play right, with Harper sliding to center.  I don’t know if the bad blood between Bautista and the Rangers would preclude the two sides from doing business, though Bautista is at least an on-paper fit in Texas as a first baseman or designated hitter.

The Yankees and Mets have both already been linked to Bautista, though the Mets would need to deal one of Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson or (less likely) Michael Conforto to make room.  For the Yankees, Bautista would add veteran stability to their young first base/right field/DH mix of Greg Bird, Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks, and left field could also open up if anything comes of trade inquiries about Brett Gardner.

While Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins recently said that the club’s signing of Kendrys Morales didn’t mean that Toronto couldn’t still bring back Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, talks between Bautista and the Jays are reportedly not showing any signs of re-opening.  Bautista could still technically fit playing right, first base and DH in rotation with Morales and Justin Smoak, though at this point, it seems like the Bautista era is Toronto is coming to a close.

Expected Contract

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Bautista 12th on his list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting Bautista for a three-year, $51MM contract but with the potential for an opt-out clause after the first year or perhaps just a one-year deal altogether.

I would tend to think that a multi-year deal with an opt-out is the best scenario for all parties.  Bautista already feels that he vastly outperformed his previous contract — he could see another modest multi-year deal as a missed opportunity at prime earning years in 2018 or 2019, as obviously he believes he’ll return to form next season.  With an opt-out, Bautista can test the market again next winter if he has that rebound year, and the signing team might be satisfied to have gotten one big year from a 36-year-old and then let off the hook for his age-37 season and beyond.

This is a tough one to predict given Bautista’s lackluster platform year, though I believe Tim’s projection of a $17MM average annual value will end up being accurate.  Whether Bautista gets a third year could depend on how the rest of the first base/DH market shakes out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Stefen Romero To Sign With Japan’s Orix Buffaloes

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Former Mariners outfielder Stefen Romero has agreed to terms with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The Mariners announced last week that they were releasing Romero so that he could pursue an opportunity in Asia, and Rosenthal reports that he’ll receive a seven-figure guarantee with his new team.

Romero, 28, was one of the Mariners’ top prospects from 2012-14 but struggled quite a bit in his big league debut back in 2014, hitting just .192/.234/.299 with three homers in 190 plate appearances. He tallied another 43 plate appearances across the next two seasons but wasn’t able to do anything to further his case for big league playing time. All told, he’s a .195/.242/.307 hitter in the Majors. However, he’ll head to Japan with a career .299/.347/.514 batting line and 61 homers across 1552 plate appearances at the Triple-A level and will have the opportunity to earn considerably more overseas than he would have had he remained stateside.

Romero, who was out of minor league options and would’ve had to break camp with the big league club or be exposed to waivers, was a long shot to stick on the 25-man roster all season. And even if he did, he’d have earned a shade over $500K, so he’ll come out considerably ahead in this deal and still have the opportunity to return to the Majors later in his career if he performs well in NPB.

Mike Hazen, Jerry Dipoto Discuss Segura-For-Walker Trade

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The Mariners and Diamondbacks completed one of the largest trades of the young offseason last night, as Seattle sent right-hander Taijuan Walker and infielder Ketel Marte to Arizona in exchange for shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and lefty reliever Zac Curtis in a trade that should have a longstanding impact on each organization. The lack of available starting pitching, both in free agency and in trades, has been well documented and played a role in the deal for both teams, as Arizona GM Mike Hazen and Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto explained to reporters in a pair of Wednesday night conference calls (links via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

“When we looked at the pitching that’s out on the market, we felt like this was an opportunity we had to take right now,” said Hazen of the trade. “Obviously, Jean is a great fit for them and was for us, but in order for us to get a starting pitcher the caliber of Taijuan, we felt like this was the opportunity we had to take given the market. It takes a lot of starting pitching to get through the season.”

Indeed, the D-backs will add Walker to a rotation mix that features Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray, Rubby De La Rosa, Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley. The magnitude of this trade and Walker’s solid results to this point in his career — 4.18 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 41.5 percent ground-ball rate in 357 innings — should effectively guarantee him a spot in new manager Torey Lovullo’s rotation. Piecoro projects Walker to be joined by Greinke, Miller, Corbin and Ray on that front, and the remaining three righties could serve as either bullpen pieces, depth options in the minors or trade fodder thanks to the increased depth brought by Walker’s acquisition. Parting with Walker was painful for the Mariners, Dipoto admitted.

“It’s always hard when you give up talent like Taijuan,” said Dipoto. “You have to give to get and in this case we feel like we are getting a little bit more of a known commodity and we understand that Taijuan takes with him the upside to achieve something greater than we’ve seen. I know that’s real. At some point, Tai is going to put it all together and he will find himself as a pitcher.’

Walker, though, was only one part of the equation for the Snakes, and Hazen sounded excited about the opportunity to add a high-upside middle infielder like Marte. The switch-hitting 24-year-old already has parts of two MLB seasons under his belt, and though his sophomore campaign didn’t live up to a tremendous rookie season that came at the age of 21 (.283/.351/.402, two homers, eight steals in 247 plate appearances), Marte still carries plenty of upside and could be a long-term piece at shortstop or at second base.

“We think there’s definitely some upside in the bat and the defensive ability, and the speed and the athleticism,” said Hazen of Marte. And, as Piecoro notes, the trade could free up some at-bats for Brandon Drury (at second base), which Hazen acknowledged was a contributing factor in the decision. Drury hit .282/.329/.458 in his rookie season last year, showing great promise at the plate, but the presence of Segura at second base and Jake Lamb at third base pushed the natural infielder to left field. Drury struggled in left (-7 in both DRS and UZR), but he’ll have an opportunity to compete for regular time at second base next year.

Both GMs noted that Segura comes with significant appeal, and Dipoto offered confidence that his new shortstop’s 2016 breakout wasn’t a flash in the pan. “Segura was one of the premiere offensive players in the Majors last season,” said the second-year Mariners GM. “His combination of average, power and speed is extremely difficult to find, especially at a position like shortstop and at the top of our lineup. We believe pairing him with Robinson Canó gives us tremendous offensive potential in the middle of our infield.”

The Mariners, though, acquired a pair of pieces that could contribute to the team as soon as the 2017 season as well in Haniger and Curtis. Their proximity to the Majors also played a role in making this trade, according to Dipoto, who spoke quite highly of Haniger in particular. “We see Haniger as a high-ceiling prospect who projects to join our outfield as soon as next season, while Zac Curtis’ track record in the minors gives us great confidence in his future as a big league pitcher,” Dipoto explained.

While neither Haniger nor Curtis has been regarded as a premium prospect, Haniger laid waste to the admittedly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League last year, batting .341/.428/.670 with 20 homers in just 312 Triple-A plate appearances. With Nori Aoki departing via waivers while Franklin Gutierrez hits the open market and Stefen Romero heads to Japan, the Mariners have some outfield at-bats up for grabs. The right-handed-hitting Haniger could complement lefty swingers Ben Gamel and Seth Smith quite nicely in the corners, and his Triple-A success lends some hope to his ability to be a starter.

As for the lost rotation depth, Dipoto expressed confidence that the organization has enough remaining talent to survive a full season, but he also acknowledged that he’ll pursue additional help. “We are going to look at the free agent market,” he said. “We are certainly not opposed at potential for trades. We still feel like in the big picture that we are 10-11 deep with guys that we feel secure in starting a Major League game. We are comfortable with that group, but we’d like to augment it.”

While the trade market offers a limitless number of avenues for upgrade, free agency brings a lesser supply. Rich Hill, Jason Hammel and Ivan Nova are the top three starters on this year’s free-agent market, though Seattle’s pitcher-friendly environment could certainly be an appealing setting for one of the numerous rebound candidates that are available. Names like Brett Anderson and Derek Holland are both available, as are former Angels C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver, each of whom pitched for Dipoto’s teams in Anaheim.

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