On Wednesday, the Diamondbacks and Mariners pulled off a big five-player deal involving shortstop Jean Segura and starting pitcher Taijuan Walker. We already reviewed the trade here and here, and collected a pair of reactions to the deal here. This time, though, we want to know what you think. Based on what we know right now, which team won the trade?
The case for the Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks received four years of control for Walker and five for Ketel Marte, a young shortstop who struggled last season but held his own in the big leagues in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Segura, in contrast, only has two years of control remaining (although the other two players they gave up, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis, both have six).
Segura batted .319/.368/.499 in a spectacular 2016 campaign, but struggled to stay above replacement level in either of the two previous seasons, and had a .353 batting average on balls in play in 2016 that was out of step with his career norms. At least so far, 2016 looks like Segura’s career year, and the Diamondbacks’ decision to deal him looks like selling high. The Diamondbacks didn’t look good enough to make the playoffs in 2017, so they did well to get younger and acquire more years of team control in exchange for a player who likely wouldn’t have been with them by 2019 anyway.
Walker once rated as one of baseball’s best prospects, and while he hasn’t lived up to that billing so far, he’s still just 24, and his 2016 numbers (4.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 93.9-MPH average fastball velocity) suggest he still has upside, meaning the Diamondbacks might be buying low on a starter who might still have front-of-the-rotation potential. That sort of player is hard to find, and it’s even harder than usual this year given the weak free agent market for pitching. If Walker can improve, or if Marte can reemerge as a capable regular, the Diamondbacks will likely end up very happy with their end of the deal.
The case for the Mariners: If Segura can maintain anything resembling his 2016 level of production, he and Robinson Cano could give Seattle one of baseball’s most productive middle infields over the next two seasons. Segura’s 20 home runs, .319 average and 33 stolen bases last season were all outstanding, leading to an excellent 5.0 fWAR. Numbers like those would give the Mariners a big jump on the AL West in a season in which they hope to contend.
Also, the righty-hitting Haniger could help the Mariners’ outfield immediately — the 25-year-old struggled somewhat in 2016 in his first chance against big-league pitching, but he dominated Triple-A and next year could serve as an effective complement to lefties Seth Smith and Ben Gamel in the corners. And while third piece Curtis didn’t pitch well in the Majors in 2016 and doesn’t profile as a future closer, his strong performances in the minors suggest he could eventually become a good left-handed relief option.
The Mariners clearly gave up two interesting young players, but ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider only) argues that Walker’s delivery changes, his lesser command and the heavy reliance on his fastball make him a less inspiring talent than he was as a prospect. As for Marte, his future in the big leagues is far from assured after a season in which he played poor defense and struck out more than four times as much as he walked.
So what do you think? Who fared better in this deal, the Diamondbacks or the Mariners?
Mariners won that deal
While I think this trade is fair for both sides, and Haniger has a low-key superstar ceiling, its been made crystal clear that pitching depth is #1 now. AZ got the SP depth, ergo they won.
Low key superstar? Haniger?! Pass the pipe!
He legitimately does though, he’s the one who makes or breaks this deal for the mariners. Segura could flame out all he wants but if Haniger can pan out as a low key option then it’s all plus for the mariners.
FanGraphs article points out that his power/speed combo is very hard to find for an outfielder, let alone a CF.
For what feels like the first time in a while
The D-backs won a trade
DBacks also won the trade last offseason when they acquired Segura from Milwaukee. Before that though… maybe the Dan Haren deal? They got Skaggs and Corbin plus Joe Saunders for him. Not sure I can remember a good trade since then.
They gave up Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Brett Anderson and 3 other MLB players to get Haren, do you think Skaggs, Corbin & Saunders beats that package? I honestly don’t know right now, and would have to run some cumulative WAR and money issues, but I’d lean to no.
Doesn’t mean they didn’t win the second deal. Not to mention Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Aaron Cunningham and Greg Smith all were kinda bad.
CarGo is the only good player in that package
That’s a sunk cost, you don’t take that into consideration.
Very good comment. The willingness to look for facts to back up an opinion is rare enough to be mourned, and to be lauded when it appears.
Regarding this trade, I think the Seattle folks have given up on Walker. They believe that he won’t ever be anything but what he is, so they were willing to let him go. The biggest question is whether Miranda and Karns can replace Walker, and that’s a pretty easy yes; not because M/K will be so good, but because Walker ultimately offered little beyond immense potential.
The Brewers won that Segura trade last offseason. The got a great all-around prospect in Isan Diaz. Plus they got Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill. Hill was able to regain some value and was trade to Boston for Wendell Rijo and Aaron Wilkerson. Also Tyler Wagner was just claimed by the Rangers. The trade was basically Isan Diaz, Chase Anderson, Aaron Wilkerson, and Wendell Rijo for Jean Segura. That looks like a good trade for the Brewers.
You have to wait to see what sort of player Isan Diaz becomes before declaring it so decisively. He raked in ’16 and was the Brewers minor leaguer of the year.
Hire smart people, get smart decisions. Something that Dave Stewart and TDLR failed to be/make.
To soon to tell
I vote Diamond backs
I think it is way too early to tell. It could very well prove to be a win-win deal for both teams. IF Segura puts up similar type numbers as he did in 2016 then the Mariners may very well have gotten their lead off hitter and every day shortstop situation solved. Haniger too could be a very useful player for Seattle. On the other hand Walker is still very young at 24 and may take the next step as could Marte. This is definitely a trade that could have an impact on multiple teams over the next few seasons.
I vote d-backs
Diamondbacks, though it’s early
the jury will be out for a while on the deal. If Segura stays a great hitter and the M’s make the playoffs they won. If Walker establishes himself as a top of rotation starter D-backs won. right now it should be graded as a push until next year when we will know better.
Dbacks
Any way to get the poll on the app?
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Agreeing with some of the other commenters who are saying it’s too early to tell. The final judgement depends on a few factors, namely whether Walker will step up, finding out just how sustainable Segura’s performance is, and how both Haniger and Curtis fare in the majors, not to mention how the Mariners are able to replace Walker in the rotation. I ended up going D-Backs due to the upside of Walker and how it hurts Seattle’s pitching depth, but we’ll have a much better answer around this time next year.
On a separate note, I have occasionally noticed when looking at the site’s comments on my mobile that I am apparently logged into an account I have never seen before, even when I have all cookies disabled and am just viewing as a guest. It’s not the same account each time, always something different. I’m not sure if anyone else has had this issue, but either way I feel it’s worth at least mentioning so the site’s staff can look into it if they feel it’s necessary.
I don’t think Seattle has any worries replacing Walker: he has wonderful talent but it showed so rarely that lesser talents can offer average production and be more succesful.
I don’t know much about Karns, but Miranda did very well in his what, 7 starts? He gives up homers, no doubt about that, but he doesn’t walk many and he has an ok K rate. He should be at least average.
Only time will tell. I do believe everyone thought the Yankees won the Eovaldi trade at the time. Now… it was highway robbery by the Marlins.
I think D-Backs, but honestly we won’t know till the season plays out.
Something I haven’t seen talked about: after his big year, isn’t Segura due for a huge raise? Marte is young, on min wage and is now going to a hitters park, I’d say swapping them is a plus for AZ in terms of at the minimum, money, but Marte could also break out pretty easily.
Yes Marte is pre arb, but let me tell you the perspective of a Mariners fan. 20 errors, and a .610 OPS? He is the sole reason we did not break the streak of none playoff seasons. A trade for Cozart at the deadline was on the cusp, and if we got that done (even with Cozart’s injury), the Mariners would’ve made the playoffs. I guarantee it.
Now let me tell you the perspective of a non-Mariners fan that knows how baseball works. Unless Marte was pitching every game and taking all the at bats, Marte was far from the sole reason they didn’t make the playoffs. That garbage rotation was a bigger reason. Paxton was the only starter with a FIP under 4… The fact that they won 86 with that rotation is pretty shocking.
Personally I dont think either team won this deal meaning they both lost…..I think Segura will struggle to reproduce in Seattle’s less hitter friendly and heavier air confines……while Walker will get shelled in the launching pad of Zona like Shelby Miller….I think Seattle sold low on Walker and Zona did a poor job of picking a young pitcher that could thrive there.
I was going to post basically the same thing. Biggest take aways are Segura and Walker both went to less favorable environments. And to think of the players the Mariners could have acquired for Walker in previous years. But I still feel Diamondbacks won because I’d rather gamble on Walker figuring it out than Segura maintaining that year in a tough park to hit in, while getting what I feel is a similar type middle infielder in return with a few more years of control. I guess the Haniger prospect can change the balance of the trade but I’m not betting on it. I also feel like Walker would still have value if he fails in AZ, some team would give something for him to try and fix him, where if Segura fails and has a year like his last couple in Milwaukee he would be a non tender candidate
Seattle has moved in their fences quite a bit, that is part of the reason Walker has struggled, giving up the long ball. But the whole hitters park stuff only really matter in terms of home runs and slugging percentage. The Ms didn’t acquire Segura to hopefully hit 20 home runs again. They got him to hit .300, steal bases and score runs. Segura may not hit 20 home runs, but that’s fine. His job is to get on base and steal bases and score runs in front of Cano, Cruz and Seager.
Sure but don’t you feel like Marte can develop into that? Yes his 2016 showing was poor, but he’s young and I’m not forgetting his 2015 between majors and AAA. I really wouldn’t be surprised if Segura and Marte had similar production this year. What does surprise me as a division neighboring A’s fan is what seems like a revolving door of SS go through the Mariners. Chris Taylor, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, and now Marte. Doesn’t seem like they get much of a chance to prove themselves.
I think Marte at his best is a 290-300 hitter. That will play below average defense and steal 25 bases. I believe this is a good trade because if Walker and Marte develop into good major leaguers in 3 years, Cano, Cruz, Felix and Iwakuma are going to be done producing at an elite level, therefore those players being 28 and being average to good major leaguers won’t matter because their core of elite talent will be done. Plus Segura is only 2 years older than Walker. Segura has had mulptiple good seasons, Walker has had 0
Seattle for sure! I forgot, was it Dbacks that got randy Johnson or the Mariners in the trade? 2001 if I’m right
It was Houston.
The key phrase here is that the D-Backs “sold high” on Segura…..teams generally win those deals. Walker frustrates everybody, but who knows? 24-year olds do things like get married, have kids, find religion, or whatever; then the light goes on.
OTOH, I see the M’s point of view. If Segura’s season wasn’t an outlier, they have a middle IF of almost recent historic offensive value, tho its light defensively.
But still think the gamble on Walker is worth it…..And stop being in love with KLaw, who I admit is very bright and entertaining. But there’s a reason why he and his “god-father” J.P. Richardi had to find other jobs; they’d ruin an army in any MLB Front Office, as they actually did with the Blue Jays.
As a Mariners fan, I like the deal from our side on the surface, but it really depends on what the prospects turn out to be. Segura’s probably due some regression, and Walker has failed to develop a breaking ball. Good luck in Arizona with a straight fastball! I really liked his potential, but its easier to develop back of the rotation arms than 4 win shortstops. Here’s to hoping Haniger can be a solid center fielder!
I voted dbacks but I usually side with pitching when it’s this early. I’ll give it the length of seguras contract at least to be totally sure though we’ve seen guys take 4 + years to figure it out especially on the mound.
I prefer the D-Backs side by a decent margin
Seattle won it for now simply because Segura has been a far more valuable than Walker up to this point (keywords: up to this point). Walker can still establish himself to be a frontline starter but there’s also a chance he can unfortunately be a failed prospect. He couldn’t pitch all that well in a neutral park, and moving to a hitters park may make him just as bad, if not worse.
And as others said, Segura would have to show last season was not a fluke , and he’s now moving away from a Hitters park.
For now , Mariners win this. But we shall see what the change of scenery does for each.
Also, Safeco is not the pitchers park it once was. According to Park Factors, Safeco was 6th in HRs and tied for 13th in Doubles (though it was only ranked 21st in Hits).
Neither team has done well in trades in the past, but with newer GMs both teams could have won this trade. The Mariners are borderline contenders who just missed the playoffs last year, while the D-Backs need to rebuild their team. They would be better served trading Greinke and then reevaluating the team. By trading Greinke and maybe Goldschmidt for good prospects they might move in the right direction. This will be painful to do, but right now they can’t compete in the West.
no team will take on greinke’s contract
No one would take on his entire contract, but I bet someone out there would be willing to take on a majority of it based on what he brings. He struggled badly in the first half, but put together a better second half. He can easily still be an ace. The pitching market is awful this offseason. He would bring a ton of value to any team.
They would have to eat like half of the contract to get anything worth trading him and then they have like 16 mil in dead money for the next couple seasons
I can see the dodgers trading for him, but I think they trade for Chris Sale, they would have to give up the top prospects but cheaper contract
I think if they really went the route of trading Greinke, they would just take less prospects to have the other team take on more money. If the team that took him on took on 2/3 of the salary, the Diamondbacks would have 20M freed up each year. Not saying they should do that (I personally think he will rebound in year 2 and the DBacks can compete this year), but if they just wanted to free up salary, I think teams would take him.
I have the dbacks rebounding huge in 2017, the rotation has to be better, Pollock has to stay healthy. I think they will contend for a wildcard.
Their pitching will not improve while Mike Butcher is still their pitching coach. Their entire pitching staff has been substantially worse since he took that job. Greinke, Corbin, Miller, among others. All were uncharacteristically bad last year.
This was a pretty fair trade for both sides, as of right now. The answer won’t be known for 2-3 years. But both teams addressed immediate and future needs.
D’Dacks. Mariners could have gotten a lot more for Walker. Like Paul Goldscmhidt with them having voglebach it wasn’t a need. Getting dbacks #1 prospect is good too. One of those trades that is like lets see how this works out
Walker wasn’t going to get Goldy. They could’ve included Vogelbach, and that still wouldn’t have been all that close
4 years in the majors. 3 with injuries that cost him time on the DL, offseason surgery on his drive foot and a career ERA of 4..18 that has regressed the last 2 seasons. No. the Mariners could not have gotten more for Walker. They had to throw in a former top prospect just to get an inconsistent Segura. That is about Walker’s value today. Now in 2014 they may have gotten more before all the injuries and the struggles and the exposure of a complete lack of an MLB level secondary pitch.
If Segura hits like he did in 2016, the Mariners won the trade.
Both these teams have had trouble in trades in the past, but with new GMs this one could be different. These teams are in different places at the moment, the Mariners are borderline contenders and the D-Backs are building. That’s why I can see them trading Greinke to a contender for some young prospects. The D-Backs aren’t contending with the Giants and the Dodgers.
Link to a poll?
D-backs lost
I think time will ultimately tell, but I think the Mariners lost this trade. If nothing else, by the simple fact that I don’t think it was necessary right now. I don’t think it was worth it, and I think it was a bad move on their end, especially with Felix starting to regress a bit. I would rather take my chances on Walker and Marte.
The main reason I think they lost is because they had other options. They SHOULD have traded for Cozart and sent Marte down to the minors for a bit, just like they did Zunino. Then you have a middle IF of Cozart and Cano until Marte is ready. I feel like they could have gotten much more for including Walker that would have been more beneficial, such as creating a package for McCutchen around him. I wouldn’t have given up Walker for that. He’s only 24 and controlled through 2020. I feel like this is going to hurt right up there with giving up Smith and Elias for a terrible half of a season of Miley. Smith was absolutely dominant and Walker still has TOR potential and 4 years to figure it out. Both of them should have been untouchable in my mind unless for a better package.
The point of getting Seguera wasn’t to get a SS it was getting a lead off hitter which Cosart isn’t. Seguera takes care of 2 issues Leadoff & SS. Cosart would bat 8th or 9 th and there would still be a hole in the Leadoff spot. Killed 2 birds with 1 stone and got a guy who can step in and provide a platoon and is young enough to develop into a regular. Also a lefty for the bullpen even if he develops into a 2nd lefty there is still value there. And by all of them having spent time in the majors already they are ready now players.
Now with the DBacks they get a potential MOR arm with a few years of service time and a middle infield prospect who had a small level of success at the major league level. He can use maybe a little yime in the minors to clear things up. I think the trade has the ability to work out for both teams.
I understand he kills both birds with one stone….hopefully. Segura doesn’t exactly have a track record to prove that he will continue that. He has had a little over one season of success, which is about the same amount Marte has had. Plus, Segura costs a lot more. My point isn’t that Segura won’t help, my point is that Walker should have been used to secure a different position in my opinion. There were a lot of teams that wanted to acquire Walker, why not try to package him for someone like McCutchen or Braun. and give Marte another shot at leadoff? Or, keep Walker and try to bring back Ichiro. I just think of Chone Figgins, and he had a much better track record than Segura, and that was in the same division. Walker should have been kept, Especially with Felix and Kuma on the downhill. Walker was dominant over the last month or so.
Mariners won for the short-run, but for the long-run and overall the D-backs got this one.
Diamondbacks won the trade. Marte has the potential to be a fast Segura and if Walker can learn to limit the walks he has the potential to be a great number 2 starter and if he can’t he could be an absolute beast as a late reliever.
Marte can’t hit, has bad plate discipline, and isn’t solid in the field.
Walker lacks secondary pitches, and even if he does reduce his walks, he still gives up WAY too many home runs; Arizona isn’t a good fit for his present skillset. The absolute best relief pitchers, the truly elite, have a phenomenal secondary offering, something Walker hasn’t come close to developing.
Britton has one pitch. Chapman has one pitch.
Sure Chapman has a 200 MPH fastball, but also has a nasty slider.
Britton’s one pitch isn’t a straight fastball.
What are you talking about? Marte struggled last year, and all of a sudden he “can’t hit.” That’s awfully quick to write off a young player. How quickly you forget that he hit .283/.351/.402 as a 21 year old in 200+ at bats in the bigs in 2015… That was a 2+ win season as a 21 year old SS in only 57 games – a total that Segura has only gone above once in his career before last year. I think you could pretty easily make an arguement that Marte has a better chance of bouncing back at the plate than Segura does of repeating his 2016.
Agree completely with Priggs. Segura has two pretty bad seasons and one awesome season and he’s infallible now, yet a really young Marte with success already under his belt in majors is done after struggling in a limited season last year?
My other comment didn’t post earlier. My response was essentially that the view that Marte was solid in 2015 basically requires you to believe that 2015 is what to expect going forward. I don’t buy that version of Marte over the 2016 version. His BABIP was really high, and his walk rate was much higher than his minor league numbers. He looked lost on off speed pitching. His defense wasn’t good. All he is is controllable, and going into a more hitter friendly park. But based on what I’ve watched, I think he’s more 2016 than 2015.
What you also have to consider is both Marte and Walker had terrible attitudes, and were basically un-coachable. Last time M’s had a SS hit above .300 was A-Rod….
I love Walker but he hasn’t done anything. I believe JD doesn’t have much confidence that Walker will improve much. However, tremendous upside exist. Segura and Cano gives possible best offensive middle in baseball. I also believe JD has plan to replace Walker. Think. We need to see what else happens here.
I’m sure he has a plan to replace him (he has to), but I don’t think it was a good move. Just go trade for Cozart, which wasn’t going to take any top prospects. You didn’t need to give up Walker and Marte right now, or you could have packaged them for something bigger, like an OF bat. Shoot, there are even some rumors that the Marlins might be willing to trade Stanton since the tragic death of Jose. They have a lot of pieces that they need to fill now. Headline that with guys like Walker, O’Neill, Pederson, Gohara, and a couple of others. I’m not saying the Marlins would do that by any means, but go for someone like that or McCutchen with Walker. Or even one of the Cubs’ youngsters. I just don’t think it makes sense to trade include Walker in a trade along with Marte for Segura, when Marte himself could bounce back and become Segura. Segura doesn’t have a record of success. He couldn’t hit in Milwaukee and hit in the hitters park that was Chase Field. Now he is going to Safeco.
I believe you forgot the infield after middle between catcher and cf that’s the only way that’d be true but is definitely a hell of an infield if segura repeats.
Thanks
For 2017, i like Addy and Javy up the middle for Chicago.
Cano and segura will be damn good though. Defensively, segura has to improve.
I’m biased but I’d take correa and Altuve over either group.
It’s a win-win trade. I think both teams got better
Short term. Mariners won
Long term. Dbacks won.
If the mariners are able to make the playoffs with Segura playing well as leadoff hitter.
May take more time to develop Walker now that he’s playing home games at chase field in az. Talent should outweigh the park so we’ll get a chance to see how talented he really is.
I like the DBacks return a little more. Controllable young starting pitching is in short supply and they got four years of control with Walker. Allows them to play around with depth, maybe even move Ray into an Andrew Miller-type of role in the bullpen. Marte is basically Segura without the BABIP – a defensively-challenged shortstop with poor plate discipline. Moving from a great pitching park to a great hitting one might help him.
Segura is about to get expensive and in the two years before 2016 he was one of the very worst players in baseball. He gets some credit for playing through some really serious family tragedy but those two years still happened. His defense at short has never been great but he’ll be playing between two elite defenders in the infield so perhaps that won’t matter as much in Seattle. I would guess he’ll lose the power spike but his BA/OBP should stay about the same.
Haniger will see a lot of time considering the M’s starting outfield is all left-handed. He can run and actually play center, plus has nice power, but the swing-and-miss in his game is real. He could be Carlos Gomez or he could be Drew Stubbs, where the strikeouts don’t allow him to access the power.
DBacks, but merely because the M’s lost the deal
Seattle could have signed Rodriguez for less money and instead taken the gamble on him repeating his career year while having Marte available as a Platoon partner if it didn’t work out. Numbers on their splits even shows a platoon would likely produce about the same as they are probably to get from Segura anyway (I don’t antisipate him repeating the BABIP when he has produced 3.5 years of an extremely consistent 280-300 BABIP (with ~275 wOBA, ~70 wRC and ~ 0 WAR), plus his final 2 seasons in the minors indicate that is probably his default capabilities)
That would have saved the M’s money, given them more flexibility for the roster, not removed an Average already (with potential for much more) Starter and left them with the 9 years of control for the two high-upside young guys.
So while it’s not really a horrible trade on the surface, Sea had better options available to them imo, and therefore they lost this move
Expanding what I was talking about on Segura
2012 – .302 BABIP, .066 ISO, .278 wOBA, 67 wRC+
1H’13 – .349 BABIP, .161 ISO, .369 wOBA, 133 wRC+
2H’13 – .285 BABIP, .074 ISO, ..258 wOBA, 55 wRC+
2014 – .275 BABIP, .080 ISO, .272 wOBA, 67 wRC+
2015 – .298 BABIP, .079 ISO .267 wOBA, 63 wRC+
2016 – .353 BABIP, .181 ISO, .371 wOBA, 126 wRC+
That is an extremely consistent 280-300 BABIP, .060-.080 ISO, .260-.280 wOBA and 55-70 wRC+ during most of his career and it is on par with his 2011 & 2012 minor league seasons too.
If that is who Segura really is, he is a 0 WAR guy set to make around 2/18 the next two seasons thru Arbitration
My predictions for this trade:
– Mitch Haniger will get consistent playing time at the corner OF spots and hit .280/.350 with 20 HR in 350-400 AB and put up a higher WAR than Marte for the 2017 season.
– Ketel Marte will once again struggle with pitch recognition and will finish the 2017 season with a .250/.285 slashline, a WAR of 1.0 or less and over 100 SO in 400 ABs. If his defensive struggles continue, we may even see him demoted to AAA Reno.
– Segura will regress somewhat and only put up a .290/.330 with a .750 OPS and will contribute a 3.5 WAR.
– Walker will show inklings of brilliance but struggle overall because a lack of secondary pitches and put up a 4.30-4.50 ERA in the first half. He will be moved to relief duties to give the Dbacks other talented, young pitchers an opportunity to get starts late in the season.
I’d say mariners won then.
Dbacks
You can have a prospect with however high of a ceiling (“upside”) you think he has, don’t ignore the fact that he is still only a prospect and a C+ rated one at that which considerably lowers his value. There are limited ways to value his present day value. Today, the Dbacks won this trade by a landslide. Possibly down the road, the Dbacks end up losing if Marte and Tai bust later on, and Hanniger & Curtis explode onto the scene. Taking into account present day value or prospect surplus value, and using fangraphs steamer projections the Dbacks won the trade $79m value vs. $29.6m value.
Steamer has not yet taken into account the changes in ballpark. When they do, Walker goes from a 2.2 WAR projection to a 1.6 WAR projection using their system. That significantly changes the value. Also Steamer uses a 3-year rolling stats for their projection, while you really should take into account Segura’s 4 year career since he faced a protracted illness and death of his son in 2014. Segura put up a 3.5 WAR in 2013 and when you factor that and the ballpark changes into his stats using the Steamer methodology his projections become a 2.7 WAR in 2017.
Segura has put up a ~0 WAR in 2012, 2nd half 2013, 2014 and 2015…
My first reaction was that the diamondbacks won the trade decisively, but after second consideration, I really like the mariners’ end of this deal. Segura was phenomenal last year. He’s shown this type of potential before. Whereas Taiwan, although having high potential, has failed to make significant adjustments since he’s been drafted. If he ever reaches that potential, AZ wins that trade, but it just doesn’t seem likely to me. Plus I like the other pieces that Seattle received as well. Could be very underrated pieces.
Reading the comments and struck by all the people who think Walker is still the highly touted prospect and that don’t realize we already know what kind of MLB pitcher Walker is and will be. He has an exceptional FB and that’s it. No MLB level secondary pitches. When he has good command of his FB he can still dominate lower level teams, when he doesn’t he gets spanked. Hence his 4.56 ERA and 4.22 ERA the past two seasons. This past season his 4.22 ERA is a little misleading because his peripherals like HR9 and BB9 went up and his FIP was a dismal 4.99. He wasn’t as good as that very mediocre ERA suggests. We also know that he is a fragile player. He has had 6 injuries over the past 3 seasons that have cost him starts and 3 stints on the DL. He also underwent surgery to his drive foot on October 17th of this year. Shoulder injuries twice, hip flexor tendon and foot injuries, and ankle surgery are the ones I can recall right now.
I think part of it is while sure we all have seen how Walker has fared so far, the Mariners stuck with him through that time and didn’t deal him when his value was sky high. A couple years ago he could have been dealt for primo players. Going from having one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and fast forwarding a few years and now for him you get 2 years of Jean Segura. So it’s a what could have been sentiment.
Secondly how much of not having a 2nd pitch is Walkers fault? Teams bringing up young players essentially expect a pitcher to change their motion, delivery, arm angle, style to the teams demands. If the player doesn’t they get a bad wrap and it’s “he didn’t develop because he wouldn’t listen to his coaches”. As a young pitcher if you are soaking in all you can from your coaches and going from something you are comfortable with and relenting to their requests, how much fault of Walkers is it that he doesn’t have a 2nd pitch? I’m not saying Mariners are at fault really, I’m just saying I’m not sold that Walker doesn’t have a 2nd pitch in him. Maybe he hasn’t found it yet. Think of all the stories you hear of “yea I was struggling in AA then the bullpen catcher changed my grip on my slider” or “some veteran in the bigs showed me his change up”. Maybe change of scenery and new set of hands on Walker helps him find that second offering.
Walker developed Tendinitis in his push-off foot in the second half of last season. Prior to the injury he was sporting a 3.66 ERA with a 3.80 SIERA and 3.92 xFIP while sitting on a 8.37 K/9 to 1.88 BB/9
The SIERA was good enough for 12th among AL Starters with at least 80 IP, while the xFIP was good enough for 14th. Meanwhile the BB/9 was good enough for 9th lowest among the same pitchers, with his 4.44K/BB put him 7th
…that was done in just his second real season, and without a true secondary pitch
So yes, despite PadsFans apparent anti-DBacks bias leading him to try and imply Walker took steps back last season, he actually took some pretty good steps forward and was on a path to put his name on the board before the foot injury derailed things around the break
Realistically, Walker is already a pretty good clone of Kevin Gausman if you take a look at rates and results basically across the board – not bad for a 1 pitch guy so many here are writing off nearly completely regardless of the actual facts, it seams.
If walker can develop any pitch to compliment his fastball I think the Dbacks will win this trade. That said I think the M’s brass have given up on him having a good off speed pitch.
Marte is a wild card. Was great his rookie year but struggled last year (he had mono so that had some effect on his struggles but I am too lazy to look at his splits last year).
I really like Segura though so we shall see how that works itself out. Overall I think the DBacks are slightly ahead here but if Segura can come close to matching last years numbers than the M’s win.
Marginal D-backs win right now… could turn out to be either a wash or a big win in the long term.
Where is the poll for the app?!
The Mariners have a small window of opportunity with their aging players. Taijuan and Ketel weren’t producing NOW and that’s the main reason they got traded. They aren’t going to make the playoffs staying pat with what they’ve got. A deal like this needed to happen. As of right now the Mariners won the deal but as most know both Ketel and Taijuan have superstar potential so it may be many years down the road until we know who won the deal.
DBacks to trade Grienke and Miller before pre season
Honestly, I would have to say the Diamondbacks won the deal. Right now, with the way things look, AJ is their cf, Tomas is their lf, Drury is the rf, Lamb is their 3b, Marte as ss, Owings is the 2b, Goldschimdt is the 1b, and Castillo is the catcher. Once Marte gets more experience he’ll be about as good as Segura. Considering that Segura was not nearly as good anywhere else as he was with Arizona. Also as of now, their rotation would probably be, in this order, Greinke, Ray, Walker, De La Rosa, and Miller. Ray had over 200 k’s last year so, it doesn’t look that bad.
david peralta^^?
but matte will not be as good as segura, he my have the same glove and the same speed. but he will not hit for the same average, have the same number of hits, or have the same power. segura did blow up once he was in arizona, but that was what he is capable of because he had numbers like that in his first half season in milwaukee. also ketel marte will most likely start out on the bench being the 4 strong middle infielder because nick ahmed, brandon drury , and chris owings will be the top 3 middle infielders. drury only at second base though.
FYI, in the first half last season Marte produced better results than the average season Segura has put up (.272/.298/.355, .083 ISO, .283 wOBA, 77 wRC+ )
In fact, compare that to Seguras career marks prior to last season:
.272/.298/.355, .283 wOBA, 77 wRC+ – Marte 1st half 2016
.266/.301/.360, .290 wOBA, 78 wRC+ – Segura 2012-2015
Martes struggles last season came 100% after his thumb injury DL-stint (same thumb he had broken in 2015) – he comes back healthy and hitting even like he was to start 2016, and there is actually a pretty good possibility he outproduces Segura even next year
but even before that injury, marte’s numbers were not as good as segura’s. segura lived up to his potential in arizona. he did not have the same numbers in milwaukee except for the first half of his rookie season. but some players just cannot hit in certain ball parks
Peralta is going to play RF that’s a lock.
It’s a typical DiPoto trade. A creative way to get great talent for the now (Segura) and take in undervauled players like Mitch Haniger.
Intially, I thought I would not have done and instead found a veteran shortstop like Stephen Drew to add to the team while Marte works out some kinks. However, what if Marte never comes back? What if Stephen Drew or another veteran SS has to stay in all season long? What do you do about a leadoff hitter you’ve been looking for that Segura could have been?
It’s a win-now move by adding Segura while improving the bullpen and grabbing a young & capable OF for the foreseeable future. It is ballsy and I like it. Only question is how DiPoto addresses the starting rotation. He does that then this move makes a lot of sense and looks complete.
As a Mariner fan, I like the deal. On paper it is a win win for both team’s intentions. The mariners get more immediate contribution while Arizona gets cheaper and a bit younger..
I really enjoy offseasons with Jerry Dipoto running things. He keeps things active and builds excitement and novelty for the forthcoming season. The results of some of his trades may not pan out, but they all seem to be intelligently made at the time.
Both walker and marte, though still possessing room for growth, were both very inconsistent. I think the inconsistency with Walker is more mental than anything else, and might be a more challenging hurdle to surmount. Walker has also had a nagging foot injury most of last season that he got surgically corrected this offseason, but it still could pose a problem. I feel like the window for Marte to prove himself is closing also, and I think the ceiling for him has to be somewhere around the year that Segura put up last year.
If both Segura and Haniger both slot in to the starting 25 and put up above replacement level performance for a few years to come, I think we will be quite happy with this deal
Another thing to note is that Edgar Martinez has done a great job working with young players, and I think that will definitely help Segura sustain that performance.
The Diamondbacks won this deal hands down. Walker has loads of upside. None of that can be said of the other players. Walker has been up and down but has the tools to be a superstar. Starting pitching is at a premium right now. The Mariners won’t sign anyone close to Walkers talent level. They are big losers in this trade. I was starting to trust Dipoto before this trade. Not so much now. The first thing he said is that they would replace a Walker with someone already in the organization. There isn’t anyone there!
D backs won this one.
This is why you don’t grade a trade before any of the players have played a game with their new teams. What a difference just one year makes. Marte has regressed to a .249 hitter with the same fielding percentage he had with Seattle (that’s not a good thing) while bouncing between SS & 2B and Taijuan Walker has reclaimed his all-too-familiar spot on the DL, this time unfortunately with Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Segura has followed up his 2016 season with a ..300/.349/.776 BA/OBP/OBS at the plate since the trade and Haniger has turned into an everyday CF batting .288/.361/..922 BA/OBP/OBS.
Marte and Walker are young and could still turn it around and I wish Walker a complete recovery, but a little over a year in, this trade looks like a walk-off home run for the Mariners.