The Phillies and Braves have been on remarkably similar paths this winter, seeking to boost near-term performance without jeopardizing their long-term rebuilding plans. Most notably, that has involved collecting veteran pieces (especially starters) on expensive, one-year deals.
While neither of the N.L. East rivals appear to be ready to add truly significant, long-term pieces via free agency, both were willing to make targeted investments to enhance their control over their own players this winter. Specifically, Philadelphia and Atlanta found common ground with their young center fielders, Odubel Herrera, who turns 25 on Thursday, and Ender Inciarte, who just turned 26.
It’s probably not entirely coincidental that the two pacts — struck within about a week of one another — were structured so similarly. Both players are in the 2+ service class, meaning they each already had four years of team control to go, though Inciarte had qualified as a Super Two. Instead, each player committed at least one would-be free-agent year to his team, in exchange for nearly identical guarantees: Herrera gets $30.5MM, Inciarte $30.525MM. The only meaningful difference came on the option front. The Phils can control Herrera for two more seasons (at $11.5MM and $12.5MM), while the Braves only get one additional year of control over Inciarte, but need pay him only $9MM to utilize it.
Of course, the two are hardly identical players. Herrera possesses a bigger bat, having produced at a 111 wRC+ rate over his first two MLB seasons, while Inciarte is more of a league-average hitter. Though both add value with their legs and gloves, the latter is the more accomplished in both regards. All things considered, both have established themselves as solidly above-average regulars and appear set to provide plenty of value to their respective employers over the duration of their new contracts.
Herrera arguably comes with greater upside, given the increasing power (and improved walk rate) he demonstrated last year. But you could also reasonably suggest that Inciarte’s superior value in other aspects of the game makes him a surer bet to remain a quality center fielder into his early thirties. So, just for fun, which player’s contract looks like the better bet? (Those using the Trade Rumors mobile app can weigh in here.)
Give me Herrera
Exactly
HERRERA – OFFENSIVE
INCIARTE- DEFENSIVE + INTELLIGENCE
I stay with INCIARTE
Guess you’re a braves fan. He’s so intelligent; he figured he’d try to transfer some of that intelligence to his girlfriend with the ‘fist to face’ method.
I’ll take Odubel either way
What the hell are you talking about? Ender Inciarte has NEVER been associated with domestic violence. It’s asinine and downright disgraceful to utter such nonsense.
You’re referring to the scum Hector Olivera, who never played another game for Atlanta after his arrest. Olivera was eventually traded to San Diego for Matt Kemp and subsequently released, having stole 62.5 million dollars from three MLB teams. He’s likely done playing MLB.
It’s tough to pick. Inciarte’s option is cheaper, but Herrera has two.
Herrara, because bat flips and shenanigans.
Inciarte all day
Na
If you want Offense…..You like Herrera
If you treasure defense / speed…..you like Inciarte
I’m with you. Intangibles are wins. And weren’t the Phillies just shopping Herrera?
They said they would consider trading him but I don’t recall anything that said they were actively shopping him
Tough one. I’ll lean towards Herrera due to the extra year of control. But I’d also lean with Herrera if we are to assume each players stats will continue to trend in the directions they’re going in, both at the plate and in the field. Thus far Herrera has been a good hitter and above average fielder whereas Inciarte has been a below average hitter and a great fielder. I would take good at the plate and above average D over subpar at the plate and great fielding.
Yes Inciarte hits for a high average but he has a low OBP for someone with a high average, and he has zero power.
I don’t think you can go wrong with either one though.
Herrera isn’t an above average fielder.
Although I’d take Herrera as well.
I will admit I’ve seen very little of him play so I can’t say I use the eye test , but UZR/150 has him at 6.4 which is above average. He’s also 16 in DRS.
Apparently the app doesn’t let me use the Plus sign. That should be Plus 6.4 UZR/150 and Plus 16 DRS.
It also doesn’t take fancy and signs, which I know because I’m a Giants fan and AT and T park is annoying to type. I like herrera more
Herrera was almost benched this past summer because of a problem with his defense……….He’s adequate on D…….but much better at the plate…..IMHO
Not saying you’re wrong, but if you’re right, I wonder why he’s a Plus in UZR and DRS.
As someone who watched all the Phillies games, it was sometimes painful to watch Herrera in the field. He makes things harder on himself with bad route running. Hopefully it improves.
What are you even saying right now? Speak English
Jlv3gem, what’s confusing about what I said?
Inciarte just had a season in which he recorded a .351 OBP so how is that low? 56th best in baseball, higher than CarGo, Cano, Kinsler, Rendon, Adrian Gonzalez, Machado, McCutchen, and Justin Turner to name a few.
I was looking at Career. Not 2016. But good catch. Likely due to his slight increase in BB% which certainly is always a good thing.
Nevertheless , he still ranks behind Herrera in OBP and is below average in wOBA and wRC
You’re exactly right and I agree Herrera is the better offensive player but Inciarte is a better baserunner and far superior defender.
No doubt that he’s a better baserunner and defender too.
herra because of how arb works
These players won’t be going through arb. You mean since Herrera would’ve made more had he gone through arb?
Yeah. It is a better extension because philly is saving more because they would have had to pay him more than the braves would have to pay ender during their respective arbitration years. I thought that was clear enough
Ender is a super 2 player though, so he would have had 4 years of arbitration while Herrera would only have 3. Based on that, you could argue that Ender would have made more money through the arbitration process than Herrera had they not signed extensions.
Herrera. Just my preference with the power and high OBP. Also, I think another aspect that many people don’t think about is team chemistry. Nothing against Inciarte, but Herrera just brings a swagger and attitude that can motivate all his teammates to do better play with a spark under their butts. Love players that can do this just because they’re so rare. Other examples of this are Hosmer, JD Martinez, and Torii Hunter types.
You obviously haven’t watched Ender play much then…
Swagger and attitude…lol…that’s not Inciarte — deke’ing guys and stealing game-winning HRs from Cespedes. In the words of Michael Irvin, “C’mon man!”
Neither one causes a blip on the Richter Scale.
In philly and atlanta of all places.
With the exception of one year with Bourne, the Braves have needed a lead off guy forever. Inciarte is an important piece for them going forward. No knock on his counterpart in this argument, I’d just say it’s a better deal because it’s been a need that hasn’t had a long term answer for so long.
Inciarte is overrated
Please explain how?
Because he said so
Inciarte is my pick, but, I am admittedly a braves fan. I do get to watch them both, and believe over the long hall, Herrera will produce more power, but more swing and miss. Defense during our run was so important in center. Andrew Jones was the only offensive superstar we had there. Herrera does have a swagger, but that can wear thin when your team is not performing. Inciarte has more of an even temperament, and is a better over all leader to me. My preference is Inciarte’s leadership and plus defense. he also seems to to have 15 he potential, which would make him more valuable when combined with his drs pace. Pretty even debate though. Good question really.
Hard to believe Herrera was a Rule 5 pick infielder who the phillies put in CF. Great job by them…and I am a braves fan. Makes we wish we could have gotten both
Inciarte was actually a Rule V pick as well by the Phillies but was returned to Arizona.
Wow, great job by them. Imagine if they had both guys patrolling the OF
I’m a Phillies fan and still kinda pissed about that haha
Phillies have been pretty good with their Rule V picks. Herrera, Inciarte, Victorino, even Goeddel looked decent in his limited playing time.
Dan Uggla was a Rule 5 pick up by the Marlins…….and he went on to have an excellent run for several years with them (prior to his decline). “There are some diamonds to be found in that draft”…..lol
I tend to choose hitters over speed guys, because I am inclined to be a “Bat 1st” guy……….we each like what we like, right?
Uggla is not a good example of Rule 5 picks making extensions look good. Yes, he came from relative obscurity into historic HR numbers for a 2B, but his extension with ATL was a joke – not to totally blame him (but also former GM Frank Wren).
here’s a good example of a Rule 5 pick but not an extension
His extension with Atlanta wasn’t a joke at the time. Maybe the fifth year. During his Marlin years he was consistent as they come. To this day I’ll never understand how far he fell
I’m a Braves fan, and I’d give a slight edge on Herrera.
Really? Inciarte is way more than an avg hitter and is better than herrera. Herrera may hit a few more HR but that is pretty much negated by his Ks which he does about twice as many times as inciarte who has a higher avg, more triples, equal doubles. Throw in his GG fielding Id take Ender any day of the week and twice on sunday over herrera
Inciarte is absolutely just an “average” hitter in terms of where he ranks in the league.
Herrera is also, IMO, but I definitely prefer him at the plate as opposed to Inciarte.
Herrera per 162 games : .291 BA, 12 HR, 27 2B, 5 3B, 22 SB, 48 BB, 139 K, .353 OBP, .419 SLG
Inciarte per 162 games : .292 BA, 6 HR, 29 2B, 6 2B, 24 SB, 41 BB, 76 K, .337 OBP, .385 SLG
It’s pretty clear who the better offensive player is. It’s not by leaps and bounds, but Herrera is also still developing offensive. In 3 years from Inciarte, we haven’t really seen much of a change in his hit tool across the years. Still young enough to grow into a little more, though.
Herrera only took a slight step forward in terms of SLG/OPS, but the BB rate climb was nice to see, as well as the drop in K rate. He may very well end up a .290 hitter with 20 HR pop and a .350+ OBP to boot.
Herrera has a little thicker build, so he may well be able to up some HR’s and sustain it. I do think it was a bit fluky he hit 15 HR to 21 2B this year, where he hit 8 hr to 30 2B last year.
Inciarte definitely better on defense. I guess it depends on what you value and/or need. I learn Herrera, but it’s not like it’s by a lot.
Well, Herrera has clearly been a more productive batter than Inciarte, who has been like exactly a league-average hitter over the past two years. So, yeah, really, that’s what their track records suggest.
Definitely Inciarte
Another reminder of the historically bad Shelby Miller trade, as we discuss a “complimentary piece” extension.
How fun for Braves and Phillies fans to watch these two teams rebuild and compete over the next several years. Seeing these two talented CF demonstrate their abilities over the same time will be one more element of the rivalry. Go Braves, but we all win here.
Inciarte struggled with the bat and injuries the first half of the year and still ended with that batting line. Herrera definitely has more power but you need to factor in the little league park he plays in for his offensive numbers.
People like us will always choose the best “fantasy” guy and forget all that matters is the player’s value to help his team put wins on the board
Well wRC+ does take park factors into consideration. Herrera has 111 wRC+ and 110 wRC+ the last two seasons, compared to Inciarte’s 100 wRC+ and 97 wRC+. This also includes one season of Inciarte playing in hitter friendly AZ. Overall, I think the 2 players are very similar and both will help their teams win, but if I had to choose, I’ll take the younger player with an extra year of control in Herrera.
This pretty much sums it up with the fantasy comment
How many of you in here commenting play fantasy? Probably more than not. Deep down you’re going to have some bias ingrained in you.
This isn’t as tough a question as some of you think. Not knocking Herrera, but Inciarte wins this comparison with room to spare.
Idk. I think Herrera’s is more favorable from a baseball perspective. He’s had a higher OBP and SLG in each of his last two years, he’s a year younger, and Philadelphia grabbed an extra option year. He’s probably higher-risk too, since his spike in walk rate and power dwarfs anything he’s ever done in the minors, and he has had some maturity concerns. On the flip side, he’s a higher-upside play than Inciarte. I’d rather have the upside in this case than the floor that Inciarte’s defense and average bat provide
I’m going to debunk your home park advantage for Herrera hitting. He split pretty much even on the road and home. Similar across the board in his two years. Inciarte (at least by average) had been a better home hitter but better power on the road where Herrera is pretty even across the board.
The real question here is, can the Rays come to agreement with Kiermaier on a similar extension? He is also a 2+ service time CF with a similar age and a blending of their two skill sets. Time to lock him up Rays.
Kiermaier will cost more.
I like Inciarte a little bit more as a player, but not enough to make up for the extra year of potential control for Herrera.
I would go with Herrera. He has a better offensive output, though Inciarte is a better defender and has more speed. Herrera does come with the extra year of control, though.
Inciarte.
Leadoff hitter ?
Ranked 60th in OBP…..(400ab+)
60th !
Not particularly good at his primary role.
Both are nice players and both teams did well to lock them up.
One thing I wonder about with Herrrera — he had 15 HR in 656 p[ate appearances in 2016, compared to a total of 13 HR in his entire minor-league career (2,597 PA). While he’s just 24 and a lot of guys start to hit for more power as they get a little older (versus when they are teenagers), that’s still a pretty huge jump. It makes me wonder whether the power is real or whether that number will come back down.
I don’t think there’s necessarily a right answer here, it’s all opinion; both bring a strength to their respective clubs, so both are good extensions
I like both players,but I think Herrera going to be the better of the two.
He’s a year younger has more power potential and as far as fielding he’s only been in CF two years. Prior to that he only played second base.
You can’t defense him. He slashes the ball all over the field. He’s strikes out too much,but I think he will cut down on that .He gets his share of infield hits,but also hits the ball hard a lot.
If the Phillies can get some more bats to drive him in then he’d be a more exciting ballplayer .
Inciarte all the way. The guy hit freakin .410 against left handers in the 2nd half and he’s left handed!!! Inciarte had the best glove in CF and probably top 5 arm in CF. the guy has wheels too. Enders power could improve in the new park, as well as having better protection, similar to Freeman’s blossom with the addition of Kemp. Having Swanson for an entire year will boost Inciartes performance, no doubt.
Odubel – 4, Ender – 1, Tie – 2.
Defense – Ender – 2016
Baserunning – Push – Career 1% difference
Power – Odubel – Career
OBP – Odubel – Career
BA – Push – Career .001 difference
WAR – Odubel – 2015-2016
Years of Control – Odubel
Inciarte because he makes the players around him better, both in the field and offensively. Ender being on base gets more fastballs for the hitters behind him and his speed is a distraction for the opposing pitchers and fielders. His better defense helps his pitching staff tremendously.