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Archives for 2016

Former Top Prospects Looking To Stand Out As September Call-Ups

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2016 at 5:11pm CDT

Yasiel Puig’s return to the Majors this month will be carefully monitored by both the Dodgers and the teams around the league as they look to decide if he’s worth pursuing as a potential trade candidate. However, while Puig might be the most high-profile case of a once-top-tier talent looking to rebuild his stock, he’s far from the only player looking to do so. September was once looked at as a trial grounds for top prospects to cut their teeth in the Major Leagues, but as ESPN’s Keith Law recently wrote (subscription required and recommended), the “traditional” September call-up has fallen to the wayside as teams rely more heavily than ever before on their top-rated prospects throughout the course of the regular season. Only a few select top 100 prospects are even making their Major League debut this September — Yoan Moncada, Jose De Leon, Yohander Mendez and David Paulino, thus far — but there are a number of former top-ranked prospects that have exhausted their rookie eligibility (or will do so quickly this month) without yet establishing themselves as big league regulars.

MLBTR’s Jason Martinez has kept track of all of this month’s transactions over at Roster Resource. Among them are the call-ups of some once-lauded youngsters that are looking to make good on a second, third, or even fourth opportunity at the major league level (statistics through 9/8/16):

  • Byron Buxton, Twins: Buxton has returned to Minnesota for another MLB stint after yet another demotion to Triple-A, and the Twins will hope this last bit of seasoning he received was enough for him to capitalize on the potential that made him the game’s No. 1 overall prospect in back-to-back years. Buxton’s overall .305/.359/.568 line in 49 Triple-A games this season is tantalizing when combined with his outrageous speed and defensive prowess, but he was hitting under .200 with a .578 OPS in the majors at the time of his recall. Buxton, however, has already shown signs of at last figuring out MLB pitching, as he’s homered on four occasions for the Twins in September en route to a .462/.481/1.077 batting line. It’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging.
  • Jose Berrios, Twins: Berrios entered the season as one of the very top pitching prospects in baseball and was supposed to be a polished, near-MLB-ready arm. Many, in fact, believed he should’ve made the Twins’ roster out of Spring Training. Berrios was knocked around considerably in his two big league stints prior to September, though, demonstrating uncharacteristically poor control and allowing an unthinkable 38 runs in 37 innings of work. The Twins, as has been the case for years now, are perilously thin on starting pitching, and a strong September effort could go a long way toward strengthening Berrios’ case for a rotation spot in 2017. Surrendering five runs in five innings in his first September start wasn’t a good beginning, though.
  • Luis Severino, Yankees: Severino looked to have gone a long way toward solidifying his standing in the Yankees’ rotation in 2015, but those rushing to proclaim him the team’s future ace received a kick to the gut in 2016 when Severino limped to a 7.19 ERA in 51 1/3 Major League innings. Severino’s strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction, and he struggled tremendously with home runs. He’s slated to work out of the bullpen for the final month of the season and could prove that he’s a weapon in that capacity. Fans may hope that Severino ultimately resurfaces in the rotation, but as Dellin Betances has demonstrated, there’s plenty of value to be had if Severino ends up working in relief when all is said and done. Six shutout relief innings have been a nice start for the 22-year-old.
  • Michael Conforto, Mets: Few would’ve expected the Mets to add a corner outfielder like Jay Bruce entering the season with Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson all in the fold, but Conforto struggled at the plate after a terrific 2015 debut and a brilliant start to the season. The 2014 first-rounder hit .365/.442/.676 in April but tanked thereafter, hitting .148/.217/.303 across his next 44 games before being optioned to Triple-A. Conforto would return the following month and struggle once again, leading to another demotion. His final stint in Triple produced comical numbers, as he obliterated Triple-A pitchers with an obscene .493/.541/.821 batting line, six homers and four doubles in 17 games. The Mets and Conforto both hope that’s the last Triple-A assignment he’ll ever require. With Cespedes likely to opt out of his contract this winter, it’d behoove Conforto to show that he can fill those shoes, if needed, with a strong September.
  • Cody Reed, Reds: Reed has been quite good at Triple-A, working to a 3.08 ERA with strong K/BB numbers, but he’s been pummeled for a 7.36 ERA and allowed a staggering 12 home runs in just 47 2/3 innings in the Majors this season. He ranked firmly among the game’s top 50 prospects entering the season and, according to some scouting reports, has a better shot to stick in the Cincinnati rotation than teammate Brandon Finnegan, who came to the Reds in the same trade as Reed (sending Johnny Cueto to Kansas City). There looks to be at least one spot up for grabs next season, and while he’ll be pitching out of the bullpen for the final month of the year (via the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan), a strong showing this month will help his chances next season. At the very least, it’d be a positive sign for the Reds if he could simply avoid the long ball in his limited work.
  • Joey Gallo, Rangers: Gallo may have the toughest time finding regular playing time of anyone on this list, as the presence of Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, Mitch Moreland, Nomar Mazara and Carlos Gomez limits his ability to get into the lineup. However, Gallo could be used to spell any of the aforementioned corner bats this month, and a player with his game-changing power would figure to be a potential add to a playoff roster as well. He struck out in his lone plate appearance to date and will look to demonstrate an improved knack for contact as he closes out the year.
  • Justin Nicolino, Marlins: Nicolino turned in a solid, albeit unspectacular rookie season in 2015 before being torched for a 5.48 ERA in 70 2/3 innings earlier this year. Like Reed, he’s currently ticketed for bullpen duty, but with talk of possibly shutting Jose Fernandez down for the season if the Marlins fall out of contention, Nicolino could find himself making a few starts one way or another. He hasn’t missed bats in the Majors and will need to show an improved ability to do so, though his pristine control has been on display this season in the minors and should help offset the lack of whiffs to some degree.
  • Eddie Butler, Rockies: Another starter that will work out of the bullpen in the final month, Butler recently made some notable changes to his delivery that he feels were directly correlated with his late surge at Triple-A. Butler was shelled for a 6.96 ERA earlier this season and has a career 6.37 ERA in the bigs but did manage a 2.58 ERA in his final 45 2/3 innings at Triple-A (albeit with an unimpressive 15-to-10 K/BB ratio). With so many impressive young arms beginning to surface for the Rox, Butler could carve out a role as a hard-throwing reliever with a high ground-ball rate, and this September will be an early shot to prove that.

Beyond the listed names, players such as Kevin Plawecki, Andrew Susac and Dalton Pompey also fit the criteria specified for this post, but the former two are serving as third-string catchers while the latter looks to be solely in a pinch-running/defensive replacement role. Names like Robert Stephenson, Tyler Glasnow, Alex Meyer and others were also considered initially, but didn’t quite fit because they haven’t yet exceeded the rookie limits or haven’t really struggled in limited exposure. Among those three hurlers, for example, only Stephenson has even thrown ten MLB frames, and he owns a 3.12 ERA.

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MLBTR Originals

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Dodgers Set To Activate Andre Ethier

By Jeff Todd | September 9, 2016 at 4:23pm CDT

The Dodgers are summoning veteran outfielder Andre Ethier to meet the team in Miami and could activate him from the DL as soon as this evening, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Since he has been on the 60-day DL, Ethier will require a 40-man roster spot in order to return.

Ethier, 34, has not played a single major league inning this year since suffering a broken leg late this spring. Much has changed since his injury, but with less than a month to play the Dodgers are leading the NL West and can certainly stand to add another quality piece to a depth chart that already boasts plenty of outfield options.

The veteran will likely be eased back into action, and it’s a bit unclear just where he’ll end up contributing. Manager Dave Roberts says that Ethier will receive “occasional starts,” MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets, but it remains to be seen how that’ll occur. Ethier has seen action all over the outfield in recent years, but the Dodgers already have a full array of left-handed-hitting options. Joc Pederson has a lock on center, Josh Reddick was acquired at the trade deadline to play in right, and Andrew Toles has been a revelation through 24 games of action.

Expanded rosters will leave plenty of room for flexibility, of course, but this all promises to make for some interesting decisions when the time comes to set postseason rosters. Ethier will be playing not only for a chance to participate in the playoffs, but also to set up his place on next year’s team. The veteran has been productive of late, but has also been mentioned quite frequently as a trade candidate — though he has achieved full no-trade protection through ten-and-five rights. Ethier is owed $17.5MM next year, with a $2.5MM buyout on a $17.5MM option for 2018 still to go thereafter.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Andre Ethier

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Cuban Pitching Prospects Norge Ruiz, Cionel Perez Declared Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | September 9, 2016 at 2:51pm CDT

The MLB commissioner’s office has declared Cuban hurlers Norge Ruiz and Cionel Perez free agents, leaving them free to sign with any team, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Both will remain subject to international bonus pool restrictions.

As Badler notes, both players required long waits to obtain their clearance to sign. Both Ruiz and Perez left their home island  way back in May of 2015 (see here and here), but only just reached eligibility. Clearly, there is still a long ways to go smooth the transition for players seeking to jump from Cuban ball to affiliated organizations.

The right-handed Ruiz, now 22, is seen as one of the top recent pitching prospects from Cuba. Badler has suggested that he’s ready for the Double-A level, with an advanced mix of pitches that he generally mixes and commands well. With mid-rotation upside, he’s a highly intriguing target.

And Perez, a 20-year-old southpaw, has also shown promise during his work in the Serie Nacional. His stuff isn’t as polished, per Badler, but he is working on refining secondary offerings to go with a low-nineties heater. Perez isn’t considered prepared for an aggressive assignment in the upper minors, but seems to be a rather intriguing young pitcher in his own right.

Both players are slated to pitch in the Dominican winter league in a few months’ time, rather than relying simply upon showcases. That figures to afford major league organizations a long and valuable look at how they stack up against high-quality competition.

 

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Transactions Cionel Perez Norge Ruiz

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Rockies Outright Ben Paulsen, Rafael Ynoa

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2016 at 12:54pm CDT

The Rockies announced last night that first baseman Ben Paulsen and utility man Rafael Ynoa have been outrighted off the 40-man roster after being designated for assignment earlier in the week. Both players have the requisite minor league service time to qualify as free agents this winter.

The 28-year-old Paulsen mashed at a .284/.329/.479 clip in 420 plate appearances from 2014-15 with the Rockies, though those numbers are inflated by Coors Field and by the fact that his left-handed bat was largely shielded from left-handed pitching. This season, he batted just .217/.258/.304 in 97 PAs with the Rox and posted a fairly pedestrian .278/.331/.434 in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

Meanwhile, the 29-year-old Ynoa went hitless in five plate appearances with Colorado’s big league club this year. He saw quite a bit of time in the Majors last season, slashing .260/.277/.339 in 131 PAs. Ynoa has nearly 1900 innings of experience at shortstop in the minors in addition to more than 4900 innings at second base. He’s also logged time in the corner outfield and at third base in both the Majors and minors. He’s a lifetime .274/.344/.364 hitter in the minors.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Ben Paulsen Rafael Ynoa

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Braves’ Top Prospect Ozzie Albies Suffers Fractured Elbow

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2016 at 12:07pm CDT

12:07pm: The Braves announced that Albies has indeed suffered an olecranon fracture and has had his elbow placed in a fiberglass splint. He’s slated to undergo surgery next week and is presently expected to resume baseball activities in early January.

8:50am: Braves infield prospect Ozzie Albies suffered a fractured olecranon in his right elbow on Wednesday of this week, vice chairman John Schuerholz told the Braves Banter show on BlogTalk Radio (Twitter link). The injury will cost him not only the remainder of the minor league postseason but also the 2016 Arizona Fall League as well, depriving him of some additional development time. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that Albies will require surgery to repair the elbow.

Albies, 19, is currently a consensus top 25 prospect, as he rates 14th, 15th, 17th and 21st on the respective midseason prospect rankings of MLB.com, ESPN’s Keith Law, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Long developed as a shortstop prospect, the plan for Albies now appears to be for him to play second base in the Majors, where he’ll team up with Dansby Swanson to form what the Braves hope will be one of the top double-play combos in the league for years to come. Albies tore through Double-A pitching as this season, hitting an incredible .321/.391/.467 with 33 extra-base hits (22 doubles, seven triples, four homers) and 21 steals across two stints. A promotion to Triple-A proved more challenging, as Albies slashed .248/.307/.351 through 247 plate appearances before being moved back down, though it should be noted that he was the youngest player in the Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

The recovery time on the olecranon fracture wasn’t specified, though recent examples of such fractures, including Gavin Floyd and A.J. Pollock, were able to return in late August (Pollock) and September (Floyd) after fracturing their olecranon bones in March (Floyd) and early April (Pollock). That suggests that in an ideal scenario, Albies could be back up to speed come Spring Training next season, where he could well compete with Jace Peterson for the second base job. Of course, individual players recover at different paces, and one can never simply assume that a player’s rehab process will be setback-free, so there’s no firm guarantee that Albies will be ready when Spring Training kicks off.

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman notes that Albies suffered the injury while taking a swing during a Double-A playoff game (brief video included in that link) and has been examined at Dr. James’ Andrews clinic. The team will wait until its own medical staff can make a full evaluation of Albies before issuing a formal announcement and any further details on Albies’ injury.

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Atlanta Braves Ozzie Albies

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Bronson Arroyo Shut Down For Season, Aiming For 2017 Comeback

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2016 at 11:32am CDT

Veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo has been somewhat of a forgotten man this season, rehabbing with the Nationals after suffering a partial tear of a tendon in his right rotator cuff during Spring Training. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides an update on Arroyo, reporting that he was recently shut down for the season due to the fact that his elbow wasn’t able to bounce back between starts as well as he or the team had hoped. However, while there’s been talk that the longtime Reds right-hander would hang it up if this season didn’t go well, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the 39-year-old Arroyo (40 in February) is setting his sights on another comeback attempt in 2017 (links to Twitter).

Per Buchanan, Arroyo recently visited Dr. James Andrews’ clinic and received a stem cell treatment on his problematic elbow (notably, a different source of difficulties than his spring shoulder troubles). Arroyo will be shut down until November, but he plans to begin building strength back up at that point with the hope of latching on with another MLB club. Given the dearth of starting pitching on this year’s free agent market, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see another minor league deal for the veteran Arroyo, provided the stem cell treatment takes and he is able to demonstrate the ability to throw without pain.

Arroyo made just two appearances for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League affiliate this season, totaling 9 2/3 innings of work while allowing five runs on 13 hits, two walks and two hit batters with eight strikeouts. It’s now been more than two calendar years since Arroyo’s last big league appearance, which came on June 15, 2014 as a member of the Diamondbacks. When it was announced that Arroyo would undergo Tommy John surgery a few weeks after that start, the longtime Reds workhorse revealed that he actually made an incredible six starts that season knowing full well that he had a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

If Arroyo ultimately is able to return to a Major League mound, he’ll enter the 16th Major League season of a very strong career that has, to date, resulted in 2364 2/3 innings of 4.19 ERA ball with a 145-131 record, 1526 strikeouts (5.8 K/9) and 642 walks (2.4 BB/9). Originally drafted and developed by the Pirates (third round, 1995), Arroyo has pitched for Pittsburgh, Boston, Cincinnati and Arizona over his lengthy career.

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Washington Nationals Bronson Arroyo

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Sonny Gray Open To Long-Term Deal With A’s

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2016 at 10:52am CDT

Right-hander Sonny Gray is coming off the worst season of his career, and while that has his stock at a low point, Gray nonetheless tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he is open to a long-term deal and has made that known to the Athletics on multiple occasions.

“The way this year went, you never know what would come out of that,” said Gray to Slusser. “On my side, obviously, I’d love for it to be brought up or whatnot. But that’s never been the case. And if it’s not here sometime, I don’t know that it’s worth doing.” Of course, while Gray’s negotiating power is at an all-time low at the moment — a potentially favorable time for the A’s to secure him — there’s also the possibility that the trapezius strain and forearm strain which have plagued him in 2016 will have lingering and/or compounding effects that lead to continued ineffectiveness.

An All-Star and a Cy Young candidate in 2015, Gray struggled through a dismal 2016 campaign, twice landing on the disabled list and recording a 5.74 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate. The strikeout and walk rates were the worst of the 26-year-old’s career (albeit just barely in the case of the strikeout rate), and Gray showed a marked increase in hard-hit balls and home runs against him. Gray yielded just 36 home runs through 491 frames in his first three big league seasons — an average of 0.66 homers per nine innings. This season, though, he allowed 50 percent of his previous career total (18) in just 116 innings of work — an average of 1.4 homers per nine.

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Gray’s home run spike occurred without a dramatic increase in his number of fly-balls allowed (indeed, his ground-ball rate was actually the second-best of his career), meaning he simply had an inordinately high number of his fly-balls leave the yard. While homer-to-flyball rate tends to fluctuate on a year-to-year basis, thus creating some hope that there’s an element of randomness to this season’s struggles, a look at Gray’s heatmaps from 2016 and 2015 (via Fangraphs) illustrates that he left a considerably larger number of fastballs out over the plate for opposing hitters this season. That slip in location — also evident in his elevated walk rate — wasn’t the sole cause of all of the homers he yielded but did lead to much better success against his fastball (.861 opponent OPS in 2016 compared to .753 in 2015). All of that could potentially be due to his injuries, but if there’s another factor at play (or if the A’s have trepidation his ability to return at full strength in 2017), the prospect of a long-term deal becomes considerably riskier.

This offseason will mark Gray’s first trip through arbitration, and he can be controlled through the 2019 season via that process. As it stands, the Bo McKinnis client projects to hit the open market as he prepares to enter his age-30 season — an age at which many pitchers still fetch lucrative free-agent deals ranging between four and seven years of length. Signing a long-term pact with the A’s that buys out free agent years would mean forgoing that opportunity, though he’d be doing so in exchange for immediate financial security.

From the Athletics’ vantage point, Slusser notes, there’s simply the matter of whether they could afford to lock Gray or any of their other key contributors up at all. (Slusser lists Stephen Vogt, Khris Davis and Marcus Semien as other potential candidates, though none of the bunch specifically discussed a willingness to sign in the manner that Gray did, hence the focus on him in this writing.) The A’s can ill afford to miss on long-term contracts, as their prospects for either securing a new stadium or moving to another city which affords the same opportunity aren’t encouraging at the moment. And, the upcoming wave of collective bargaining negotiations could impact league-wide revenue sharing, which could potentially bring a significant blow to the Athletics’ payroll capacity as well.

The A’s have already whiffed on one large contract, as Billy Butler’s three-year, $30MM deal has looked regrettable from the get-go. Interestingly, Slusser writes that “[t]here is no chance” that Butler will be back in 2017, though the A’s aren’t likely to receive much in the way of salary relief even if they find a trade partner, as Butler has batted just .258/.325/.394 in his two seasons wearing green and gold.

While payroll capacity will certainly be a factor in any potential extension talks with Gray, so too will the fact that there aren’t many comparables in recent years. Typically, starting pitchers that ink extensions do so earlier in their careers. Via MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Lance Lynn and Wade Miley are the only two starters Gray’s service class that have signed contracts of three or more years in the past five years. Both pitchers signed away only three guaranteed years (their three arbitration years), though Miley’s deal does contain a club option for a fourth. Miley’s deal affords him a guaranteed $19.25MM, whereas Lynn’s three arbitration years went for $22MM. Either of those deals could serve as a theoretical blueprint for the arbitration years in an extension, but the difficulty the A’s will likely face would be finding an agreeable price for any free-agent years that an extension would cover. While Oakland would rightly bring up Gray’s lackluster performance and injuries in the 2016 season, his camp would almost certainly be looking more at Gray’s 2013-15 excellence when trying to establish a price point. Finding a balance between those two vantage points doesn’t figure to be an easy task.

As Slusser points out, though, had Gray pitched a full, healthy season for the Athletics, they may never have even had the opportunity to extend him at all. Another sub-3.00 ERA would have Gray on track for a substantial first-time arbitration salary and on a clear course for a $100MM+ contract in free agency. That’s less certain now, and that bit of unknown could work in the Athletics’ favor. That’s not lost on GM David Forst, who tells Slusser: “You never want to take advantage of a player, but in the course of business negotiations, if you take a look at a player who isn’t at his peak, that is potentially better for the club.”

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Oakland Athletics Billy Butler Sonny Gray

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NL West Notes: Olivera, D-Backs, Dodgers’ Rotation

By Jeff Todd | September 8, 2016 at 11:12pm CDT

Outfielder Hector Olivera, who was technically under contract most recently with the Padres — albeit quite briefly, and never in uniform — has been found guilty in his domestic abuse trial, as A.J. Perez of USA Today writes. Olivera was ultimately sentenced to 90 days in prison, but 80 of them are suspended under the judge’s decision for his misdemeanor conviction. It remains to be seen whether the disgraced 31-year-old will attempt any kind of comeback. He hasn’t donned a Major League uniform since his arrest and was released by the Padres after they acquired his contract as part of the financial work-out of the deal that sent Matt Kemp to Atlanta.

Here’s more from the NL West:

  • The Diamondbacks’ internal issues may run deeper than is generally known, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who says there’s discord between director of player development Mike Bell and senior VP of baseball ops De Jon Watson. Though all of the relevant front office members issued statements denying or glossing over the alleged discord, Rosenthal says that the pair is “at odds” over how the team runs its player development system, with Bell possibly prepared to depart if Watson is retained. As with chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart, a decision is due on Watson’s contract.
  • Meanwhile, Diamondbacks president & CEO Derrick Hall participated in a Reddit AMA in which he fielded some less-than-favorable points of view from fans. One in particular challenged the baseball decisionmaking since La Russa has taken charge, prompting an interesting response from Hall — who has said that the team is assessing whether to keep that front office group intact. “As you know, we are evaluating and analyzing all areas that you’ve touched on, and will have decisions on direction very soon,” he wrote. “What history has shown us is that turnarounds come quickly as was the case from 2006 to 2007 and 2010 to 2011. I obviously want us to be in a position where we play contending baseball much more consistently year and year for fans like you. Keep your head high and know that we all see the same issues and feel the same frustration.”
  • We checked in recently on the Dodgers’ interesting bullpen, and tonight it’s time to look at the rotation. Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer writes that Los Angeles is the rare team that has received positive contributions from a rotation that has required a laundry list of names. The organization’s oft-noted strategy of rolling the dice on starters with injury risks has worked even though many of those arms have ended up on the DL rolls, owing largely to the presence of a host of useful backups.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Dave Stewart De Jon Watson Hector Olivera Tony La Russa

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NL Notes: Fernandez, Albies, Peralta, Peraza

By Steve Adams | September 8, 2016 at 9:33pm CDT

The Marlins picked up a decisive win in last night’s game, but Miami has nonetheless dropped eight of its past 10 games to fall five games out of an NL Wild Card spot. With the team’s playoff hopes dwindling, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes that the Fish are prepared to shut down Jose Fernandez if they slip further out of contention. Miami has hoped to cap Fernandez’s innings around 180, though a postseason berth may have added some extra frames to that limit. Instead, with the young ace already at 160 1/3 innings, skipper Don Mattingly conceded that shutting Fernandez down is “absolutely” a consideration if the team’s losing continues. “We’ll look at that as it goes,” said Mattingly. “Obviously, we’ve been paying attention to his innings all along.”

More from the NL East…

  • Braves prospect Ozzie Albies is going to miss the rest of the season after suffering a still-unspecified elbow injury, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. It isn’t believed he suffered any ligament damage from the fouled-off pitch that struck him, but a fracture is still possible. Of greater concern, the 19-year-old likely won’t be able to play in the Arizona Fall League, which had perhaps been one of his final hurdles before reaching the majors. It’s still plenty possible that he’ll play a big role on the varsity squad next year, of course, but the presumption may now be that Albies will open the 2017 season in the minors.
  • The recent work of Wily Peralta may have him back in the Brewers’ 2017 rotation plans, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes. He’ll earn a modest raise on his $2.8MM arbitration salary, but that now looks again to be quite a reasonable price tag. Despite a brutal start, Peralta has turned in a 3.35 ERA over his last six outings.
  • It is time for the Reds to clear room for Jose Peraza in the daily lineup, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer opines. Peraza has impressed of late with the bat, and manager Bryan Price says that “it’s just a matter of finding his best spot and where he best serves the team.” Rosecrans discusses the defensive possibilities, now and in 2017, for the speedy youngster.
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Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Jose Fernandez Jose Peraza Ozzie Albies Wily Peralta

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Moss

By Jeff Todd | September 8, 2016 at 7:25pm CDT

Entering the 2016 season, some questioned whether the Cardinals should tender slugger Brandon Moss a contract. Despite having given up a solid pitching prospect (Rob Kaminsky) to acquire him at the trade deadline, St. Louis received only average offensive production from Moss down the stretch in 2015. And he was set for a big salary in his final season of arb eligibility.

The Cards continued to show faith in Moss, though, ultimately tendering him and agreeing on a $8.25MM payday. And perhaps it was never a close call. After all, the team was willing to part with Kaminsky in that deal even though Moss had put up a meager .217/.288/.407 batting line with the Indians over the first half of 2015.

"Jun

As Moss puts the finishing touches on a strong 2016 season, St. Louis faces another question on him, but it’s at quite a different price point. Now, it’s an open question whether the team will make him a $16.7MM qualifying offer. If it does, Moss will at least need to consider accepting, given that he’ll be entering his age-33 season and would otherwise stand to enter the market with draft compensation attached.

Regardless, the fact that the QO could even potentially come into play is testament to Moss’s quality efforts. Over his 384 plate appearances in 2016, he owns a .247/.323/.532 batting line with 25 long balls. While he did miss a bit of action with an ankle injury, that isn’t likely to be a long-term issue, and he has kept hitting since his return.

So, what explains the lull? Is this season an outlier or was last? Ever since his 2012 breakout, Moss has walked in between 8.7% and 11.6% of his plate appearances while striking out between 25% and 30% of the time. His isolated power dipped in 2014 and fell further in 2015, moving in sync with his homer-per-flyball rate. But Moss posted a hard-hit ball rate in the 40% range last season. And now that the HR/FB has moved back to a lofty 21.7%, he is again doing damage.

There’s certainly some risk in this sort of profile. Interestingly, Moss’s best overall offensive campaigns have come when his swinging-strike rate was at its highest. For a player who already has a ton of whiffs in his game, and doesn’t add value through his legs or his glove, teams will rightly question what kind of investment to make.

Platoon splits, too, raise some questions. As you might have guessed, Moss has feasted on righties this year but has been merely average when facing same-handed pitching. That represents a return to the somewhat freer-swinging version of Moss from 2012-13, when he was most productive overall. In the intervening two seasons, Moss actually carried reverse platoon splits, showing less power but better on-base ability against southpaws. All said, it’s an interesting and varied profile, but clubs will likely expect to spell Moss at least occasionally when lefties take the mound.

One other notable aspect of Moss’s likely upcoming free agent case is his glovework. I noted already that he doesn’t really add value on defense, but he has actually received slightly positive lifetime UZR and DRS ratings in the corner outfield. Those metrics don’t love him at first base, but perhaps the glove will help keep his market more open than one might expect. While Moss isn’t any kind of stolen base threat, moreover, he has traditionally rated as a roughly league-average overall performer on the basepaths.

In the aggregate, even in his best years, Moss has been more of a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. Clearly, there are some limits to his game that may not make him a simple plug-and-play everyday regular. But with the right roster around him, Moss could be a highly valuable piece, bringing strong big-time left-handed pop and more competency in the field and on the bases than one might have expected.

Finding comps for a contract is a tricky business for a player like Moss. The qualifying offer question could loom large, as some teams may simply not be interested in punting a pick to sign him. And it’s not easy to assess whether most organizations will view Moss more as an oft-used platoon player or a plausible everyday presence in the lineup.

From where I sit, though, Moss isn’t particularly likely to get a QO. That ought to help maintain a reasonable spread of demand for the veteran, which could significantly impact how his market develops. A two-year arrangement could make some sense, and Moss might reasonably hope to land on the higher side of a set of price points that range from $12MM (Chris Young) all the way up to $32MM (Mike Napoli). Three years have been there for near-regular, non-QO outfielders like Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM) and Denard Span ($31MM), with Nick Markakis representing of a next tier with his deal (four years, $44MM). Pop typically pays more than other skills, but it seems a bit of a stretch to imagine Moss reaching the levels of Nelson Cruz (four years, $58MM), even though the Mariners slugger was slightly older and came with draft compensation.

Odds are that Moss will be looking more at two or three year offers than viable four-year scenarios. That may not represent a banner entry onto the free agent market for a player who has popped 24 bombs per year for the last five seasons, but Moss was a late-emergent talent and is already looking to sell seasons in his mid-thirties. Still, he has obviously pushed his earning power back northward with a quality campaign that makes his 2015 dud look like a bit of an outlier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals Brandon Moss

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