NL East Notes: Fernandez, Yelich, Vizcaino, DePodesta
With Dee Gordon now extended through the 2020 season (and possibly 2021 by way of vesting option), MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro gets the sense that the Marlins hope to hammer out a long-term deal for Jose Fernandez, possibly in advance of tomorrow’s exchange of arbitration figures (Twitter link). That’s an ambitious goal for a number of reasons — lack of time, Fernandez’s stock being low after an injury-shortened season, Scott Boras’ aversion to long-term deals, etc. — and Frisaro himself notes that he hasn’t confirmed long-term contract talks are taking place. Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that there’s “no word” that the Marlins are hopeful of coming to terms on an extension with their young ace. With Fernandez already eligible for arbitration, the urgency to sign a deal isn’t as pressing, as he’ll begin earning notable salaries as soon as 2016, when MLBTR has him projected at $2.2MM. Given his excellence when healthy, that number should rise rapidly, as he’ll be arb-eligible three more times before qualifying for free agency.
Here’s more on the Marlins and the NL East…
- Miami’s agreement with left-hander Wei-Yin Chen should put to rest the trade rumors swirling around Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna, writes Frisaro in a full column. By adding Chen (and extending Gordon), the Marlins sent the message that their goal is to contend in 2016. Adding Chen lessens the temptation to add a young arm by trading Ozuna, which would’ve simply created another hole in the outfield anyhow, Frisaro notes.
- Within that piece, Frisaro reports that the Nationals made a run at Christian Yelich this offseason, floating a concept involving left-hander Gio Gonzalez going to the Marlins. He’s the second reporter to say as much, as Jon Heyman first mentioned the scenario about a month ago While I’d imagine that other pieces were involved in the Washington’s scenario, Frisaro hears that the inquiry “didn’t go anywhere,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise. The Marlins took Yelich 23rd overall back in 2010 and rewarded him with a hefty $49.75MM contract extension with a little more than one year of service time under his belt last offseason; the team is quite high on Yelich’s potential.
- The Braves could end up going to an arbitration hearing with right-hander Arodys Vizcaino tomorrow, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Atlanta cemented itself as a “file-and-trial” team (one that does not negotiate one-year salaries after arbitration figures are exchanged) last season when it went to a hearing with left-hander Mike Minor. With figures set to be exchanged tomorrow at 1pm ET, there’s little time for the two sides to work out a deal, although GM John Coppolella voiced a desire to work something out. “Our hope is always to settle before numbers are filed, but we showed last year that we have no problem going to a hearing if we are unable to reach a number that works for our club,” Coppolella explained. Vizcaino is projected by MLBTR to make $1.1MM next season, although as a Super Two player, establishing a more significant base in his first trip through the process would make the right-hander exponentially more costly in his next three arbitration-eligible offseasons.
- In a piece for Vice Sports, Mike Vorkunov spoke to former Mets vice president of player development/amateur scouting about his decision to jump ship to the NFL’s Cleveland Browns and the journey that brought him to baseball in the first place. DePodesta recalls some influential lessons he learned while interning for George H.W. Bush’s deputy assistant, Jim Pinkerton — an experience that changed the way he approached his understanding not only of baseball but life in general. Vorkunov spoke to DePodesta’s former colleague, Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP working under Andrew Friedman in L.A.) as well as former Harvard football teammates/coaches and current/former Browns employees. DePodesta explained to Vorkunov that he’s tried to learn about as many other industries as possible (healthcare, finance, etc.). “I’ll say this: the last 20 years in baseball, much what I’ve done is try to learn as much as I can about other industries, especially ones that I thought shared common characteristics to what we were doing in baseball,” said DePodesta. “Because I was always trying to learn how they dealt with similar interests to what we had.” Vorkunov’s lengthy piece gives an excellent look into DePodesta and what he and his unique background will bring to the NFL. To read more about DePodesta’s career change from a football perspective, check out MLBTR’s sister site, Pro Football Rumors.
Rays Nearing Two-Year Deal With Logan Forsythe
7:06pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the two sides are discussing a two-year, $10.25MM contract that contains an option for a third season. With that information now coming to light, it appears that the Rays will indeed secure an extra year of control over Forsythe if the deal is finalized. Cotillo noted back in November that there was mutual interest in working out an extension of sorts.
6:37pm: The Rays and second baseman Logan Forsythe are closing in on a two-year contract, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Per Topkin, the contract would guarantee Forsythe, a client of PSI Sports Management, more than $9MM (Twitter link). Forsythe was arbitration eligible this winter and had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.3MM in 2016. A two-year deal would buy out the remaining two years of his arbitration eligibility.
If completed, the contract would serve as a birthday gift for Forsythe, who turns 29 years old today. Acquired from the Padres alongside Brad Boxberger in a seven-player trade that sent Jesse Hahn to San Diego, Forsythe struggled considerably in his first season with Tampa Bay before breaking out in 2015. This past season, he batted .281/.359/.444 with career-highs in virtually every category, including games played (153), plate appearances (615) and home runs (17).
The contract in question wouldn’t extend the Rays’ control over Forsythe, but it would provide the team with cost certainty going forward — an element that is more crucial to a budget-conscious club like Tampa Bay than to many others. From Forsythe’s vantage point, he’ll gain the security of a larger payday now at the cost of some potential earning capacity in the event that he repeats his 2015 breakout. However, if he’s able to replicate last year’s stellar production, he’ll be poised to hit the open market as a highly desirable infield option following the 2017 season, at which point he’d be compensated quite well heading into his age-31 season.
MLBTR Live Chat: 1/14/16
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with host Jeff Todd.
MLBTR Podcast: Marlins’ Moves, Opt-Outs, And Outfielders
MLBTR’s Steve Adams joins host Jeff Todd to talk about a variety of topics. In a wide-ranging discussion, Steve and Jeff chatted about the Marlins’ extension of Dee Gordon and signing of Wei-Yin Chen, creative uses of opt-out clauses, and the still-developing free agent market for outfielders.
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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.
Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Nolan Arenado broke out offensively in 2015 with 42 home runs, 130 runs batted in and a .287 batting average to go along with his third Gold Glove Award. Arenado was not a prolific power hitter before this year, so he only has 70 career home runs, including this year’s 42. This jump in power in his third year in the league is unique and makes it harder to find appropriate comparables for him when building an arbitration case. Our model has him at $6.6MM, but I could easily see this being either a big miss or a big win for the model.
It has been eight years since the last time a hitter entered his first year of arbitration after clubbing at least 40 home runs in his platform year. That was when Ryan Howard beat the Phillies in an arbitration hearing to earn $10MM. However, Howard also had been a power hitter for over two seasons beforehand and had 129 career home runs, nearly twice as many as Arenado brings to the table. It seems very unlikely that Arenado could get $10MM.
Another case that is old enough that it might not be applicable is Ryan Ludwick from 2009, although his numbers are at least closer to Arenado in that he had a huge jump in power in his platform season. Ludwick’s 37 homers in his platform season were five fewer than Arenado his this season, but the two had identical marks of 28 homers combined in their careers prior their platform arbitration year. Ludwick also had a lower career batting average, 34 fewer career RBIs and 17 fewer RBIs in his platform season, although he did post a higher average in his platform (.299). All that said, Arenado should surpass Ludwick’s $3.7MM by a substantial margin.
Another thing that makes Arenado unique is his defense. No player in my dataset, which goes back nine years, has had three Gold Gloves before reaching arbitration eligibility. Only Matt Wieters had two, and he was a catcher. Wieters did earn $5.5MM, and while he’s a totally different position than Arenado at third base, the concept that he had such a high salary with one fewer gold glove and worse power numbers (23 HR, 83 RBI platform year; 65 and 249 career), could help Arenado argue that he deserves more. However, it is rare that a catcher would be a comparable player for a third baseman.
Few other players seem like reasonable comparables. Chris Carter hit .227 with 37 home runs and 88 RBIs in his platform year in 2014, and had a career average of .222 with 85 home runs and 216 RBIs. Carter got $4.175MM. Other than career home runs, Arenado clearly has bested Carter on all of these fronts. Pedro Alvarez had very similar numbers the year before that (.233/36/100 platform, .235/86/268 career) and got $4.25MM, making that $4.175-4.25MM range seem like something of a floor in Arenado’s case.
How much higher than $4.25MM we would expect Arenado to go is tricky. Dan Uggla got $5.35MM in 2009, with a worse platform year (.260/32/92) but decent career numbers (.262/90/270). However, the age of that case makes it a potentially stale comparison. Giancarlo Stanton had only 24 platform year home runs when he got $6.5MM, but he had 117 career home runs at that point. Mark Trumbo had 34 platform year home runs, but 95 career home runs, although his batting average was just .234 in his platform year. None of these players can boast the defense that Arenado can, either.
Another factor that could play into Arenado’s case is where Manny Machado lands. Machado is similar to Arenado in that he had an explosion of power in his platform year, hits for average, and plays third base very well. Both of these players are likely to earn similar amounts, although Arenado led the league in home runs and runs batted in, plus he has three Gold Gloves, which should give him a leg up on Machado. Both players will pay careful attention to where the other guy considers signing. Ultimately, I suspect both will fall short of their projected salaries (Machado’s projected $5.9MM is $700K less than Arenado’s $6.6MM projection). However, if one player does indeed reach his projection (which is certainly possible), the other is likely to have a better chance to do so as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rays Avoid Arbitration With McGee, Cobb, Guyer
The Rays have begun ticking through their long list of arb-eligible players in advance of Friday’s deadline to exchange filing figures. According to Jon Heyman, the “file-and-trial” organization struck deals to avoid a hearing with lefty reliever Jake McGee, righty Alex Cobb, and outfielder Brandon Guyer. (Links to Twitter.)
McGee leads the way with a $4.8MM contract for the coming season, per the report. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $4.7MM through the arbitration process, so he landed just ahead of that figure. The 29-year-old has been lights out for Tampa Bay, racking up 259 2/3 innings of 2.77 ERA pitching in his six seasons there, with 11. K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. He remains one of the most intriguing names on the trade market for pen arms.
Cobb was an easy case, unfortunately, because he missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery. As projected, he landed a repeat salary of $4MM. Tampa Bay will hope he’s able to return to the form that allowed him to compile a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 over the 2013-14 campaigns.
The deal with Guyer also lands right along the expected amount, as he’ll earn just a shade less ($1.185MM) than his projection ($1.3MM). Now 29, Guyer has turned into a useful piece over the last two years. In his 679 plate appearances dating back to the start of 2014, he’s slashed a solid .266/.348/.393 with 11 home runs and 16 steals.
Scott Atchison Retires, Joins Indians’ Staff
Veteran righty Scott Atchison has joined the Indians organization in a non-playing role, the team announced today. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian explains, Atchison took the gig after deciding to put an end to his playing career.
Atchison only worked in parts of three big league seasons before his age-34 season, but earned new opportunities after a nice run with Japan’s Hanshin Tigers. He ultimately racked up another 278 2/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball in the bigs from 2010 onward, with a 3.55 SIERA to support the results.
There were some sterling campaigns mixed in along the way. In 2012, he worked to a 1.58 ERA in a 51 1/3-inning effort for the Red Sox. And in his strong 2014 season with the Indians, Atchison logged a 2.75 earned run average in 72 frames.
Never a big strikeout pitcher, Atchison nevertheless limited the free passes (especially in his second run through the majors) and generated a lot of grounders. For his career, he averaged 6.6 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with a 49.7% groundball rate. In addition to his time in Cleveland and Boston, Atchison appeared in the majors with the Mariners, Giants, and Mets.
According to Bastian, Atchison will function in a variety of roles as a “Major League advance coach and staff assistant.” He is expected to assist in advanced scouting as well as to work with the club’s pitching coach (Mickey Callaway) and bullpen coach (Jason Bere).
MLBTR congratulates Atchison on his productive career and wishes him the best of luck in his new position.
Padres Close To Signing Shortstop; Alexei Ramirez Believed Favorite
12:24pm: San Diego is indeed “focused” on Ramirez and is “getting closer” to reaching agreement with him, Jon Heyman adds on Twitter.
11:46am: The Padres are close to locking up a free agent shortstop, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. While the report does not make clear who’ll be added, it provides that Ian Desmond is not heading to San Diego.
As Rosenthal says, then, it appears Alexei Ramirez will be joining the Friars “barring a surprise.” A recent report from Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune had suggested that the club was about to strike a deal and had seemingly whittled its options down to Desmond and Ramirez.
San Diego has long seemed in need of a full-time option up the middle. Last year’s pairing of Clint Barmes and Alexi Amarista was serviceable at best. While the organization added a promising young talent in Javier Guerra to a system that already featured up-the-middle defenders in Jose Rondon and Ruddy Giron, none of those players appears likely to break into the majors in the immediate future.
With some possible future pieces moving up, perhaps, a lengthier deal with Desmond held less appeal for San Diego. Ramirez doesn’t present the same upside, but also has long been expected to command far less on the open market — both in dollars and years.
Diamondbacks To Sign Sam LeCure To Minors Pact
The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with 31-year-old righty Sam LeCure on a minor league deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports on Twitter. LeCure, a client of BHSC, had spent his entire career in the Reds organization.
Cincinnati had leaned heavily on LeCure over the 2010 through 2014 campaigns, running him out for 300 2/3 innings in that span. He was a solid option, on the whole, putting up a 3.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 versus 3.5 BB/9.
Last year, though, LeCure lost his roster spot and opened the year in Triple-A. Over sixty innings there, he worked to a sub-par 5.25 earned run average. LeCure was able to put up twenty frames of 3.15 ERA ball upon moving back onto the major league roster late in the season. But he also continued a trend of falling strikeout totals and fastball velocity.
Miguel Sano Hires Roc Nation Sports
Young Twins slugger Miguel Sano has announced that he’s hired Roc Nation Sports as his new agency. Roc Nation represents several other high-profile baseball players, including Robinson Cano and Yoenis Cespedes.
Sano, 22, had an impressive debut last year for Minnesota after long occupying prime real estate on top-prospect charts. In 335 trips to the plate, he slashed a robust .269/.385/.530 with 18 long balls. While his 119 strikeouts are certainly cause for some concern, and Sano benefited from a sky-high .396 BABIP, there’s no denying his huge talent and remarkable power with the bat.
Of course, Sano accumulated most of those numbers while slotting in as Minnesota’s DH. There’s some uncertainty as to how the team will utilize him moving forward. He has spent most of his minor league career at third base, but all indications are that the towering youngster is going to be tried in the corner outfield for the 2016 season.
Because he was held down for much of last season, Sano is still controllable through 2021 and does not project to qualify for Super Two status. That means he won’t even be arb-eligible until 2019, though if he continues to drive the ball as he has then he could get expensive very quickly once he reaches eligibility.
Roc Nation will presumably focus its initial efforts on marketing the budding star, although it’s not impossible to imagine some extension interest from the Twins coming sooner rather than later. Teams have increasingly broached the concept of long-term arrangements with rather raw and unproven talent over recent years. Of course, such arrangements require motivation on both sides. In this case, Sano still comes with his share of risk. And it’s worth bearing in mind, on the other side of the coin, that he already landed a big bonus as an amateur.