Padres Avoid Arbitration With Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross
12:13pm: The Padres also announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Ross, who, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock, will earn $9.625MM in 2016 (Twitter link). That comes in a bit shy of Ross’ $10MM projection, although as Swartz outlined in an Arbitration Breakdown post specifically examining Ross’ case, there was reason to believe that the projection model could be a bit aggressive, and something between $9.15MM and $9.7MM might be more appropriate, based on historical comparables.
Ross, 28, recorded a strong 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 196 innings for the Padres last season. The Wasserman Media Group client will be arbitration eligible one more time next winter before reaching the open market following the 2017 season.
11:23am: The Padres and right-hander Andrew Cashner have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (via Twitter) that Cashner, a client of CAA Sports, will earn $7.15MM in 2016 — his final trip through the arbitration cycle before qualifying for free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had pegged Cashner for a $7MM salary in 2016, so he’ll top that projection by about two percent.
Cashner, 29, recorded a 4.34 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate across 184 2/3 innings with the Padres last season. Cashner was a fairly well-regarded pitching prospect when rising through the Cubs’ ranks and has emerged as a solid starter with the Friars, even if injuries have limited his value somewhat. This past season’s relatively high ERA notwithstanding, Cashner has been effective over the past three years, totaling a 3.43 ERA in 483 innings with the Padres. If he can replicate that ERA and remain healthy over the course of a full season, he’ll enter next season’s thin market of starting pitching as one of the more desirable arms available.
With Cashner’s agreement in place, the Padres have just one case remaining — that of staff ace Tyson Ross — as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Ross is projected to earn $10MM next season.
Blue Jays, Drew Storen Avoid Arbitration
The Blue Jays and newly acquired closer Drew Storen have agreed to terms on a one-year, $8.375MM contract, thereby avoiding arbitration, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). Toronto picked up Storen, a CAA client, in a swap that sent Ben Revere to the Nationals. His salary is a little less than five percent shy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection.
Storen, 28, should anchor the Toronto bullpen this season — his final year before becoming eligible for free agency. The former first-round pick spent much of the 2015 season as Washington’s closer but accepted a demotion to a setup role when the team acquired Jonathan Papelbon. Storen recorded a 3.44 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 with 29 saves in 55 innings in his final year with the Nationals.
Padres Closing In On Deal With Fernando Rodney
The Padres and right-hander Fernando Rodney are closing in on a contract, according to Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Rodney, who turns 39 this spring, is expected to enter camp as the favorite to close games in San Diego, per Heyman. Recently, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres were still in the mix for Rodney and could offer ninth-inning time as a means of enticing him. Rodney is represented by Octagon.
Rodney spent most of the past two seasons in Seattle, although his second season as the Mariners’ closer didn’t go nearly as well as the first. After recording a 2.85 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate in 2014, the “Fernando Rodney Experience” turned sour in Seattle when he struggled to a 5.68 ERA and lost the grip on the closer’s role in 2015. Rodney would go on to rebound following a DFA and a trade to the Cubs, however, as he surrendered just one earned run with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio in 12 innings with the Cubs and made the team’s postseason roster.
While Rodney’s career has been somewhat of a roller coaster, the veteran has posted a cumulative 2.80 ERA over the past four seasons and still averaged a very healthy 94.7 mph on his fastball between time with Seattle and Chicago last season. If a deal is finalized and Rodney does indeed land ninth-inning duties for the Friars. he’ll be supported by a cast of setup men including Kevin Quackenbush, Drew Pomeranz and Nick Vincent, as right-hander Brandon Maurer is slated to re-enter the rotation in Spring Training.
Phillies Avoid Arbitration With Jeremy Hellickson
The Phillies and right-hander Jeremy Hellickson have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal that will pay the offseason trade acquisition an even $7MM in 2016, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client will top his $6.6MM projection (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) by about six percent in his final trip through the arbitration process. Hellickson, 29 in April, is eligible for free agency next winter.
The D-backs acquired Hellickson in a trade with the Rays last offseason with the hope that he could return to the levels that saw him win the AL Rookie of the Year Award back in 2011 at the age of 24. However, while Hellickson remained healthier than he was in 2014, his overall results weren’t what the D-backs had envisioned. The right-hander posted a 4.62 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate in his lone season with Arizona.
Philadelphia will, like the D-backs last offseason, take on Hellickson hoping that he can return to form but knowing that even if that scenario doesn’t play out, he’ll eat some innings for a young and inexperienced staff that could use some veteran depth. The price tag on Hellickson, financially speaking, might be a bit steeper than simply signing a veteran innings eater on the free-agent market — Philadelphia paid Aaron Harang $5MM last season, for instance — but Hellickson comes with more upside than many veteran innings eaters that might come with a lower cost. If he performs well this year, Hellickson could conceivably emerge as a July trade chip and net a useful piece for the Phillies’ future.
With Hellickson’s agreement reportedly in place, the Phillies have now avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. The Phillies came to terms with Jeanmar Gomez and Freddy Galvis over the past two days as well, while Peter Bourjos settled his case last month.
Rays, Logan Forsythe Agree To Two-Year Deal
The Rays and second baseman Logan Forsythe are in agreement on a two-year contract that contains a club option for a third season, reports Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Forsythe will receive a $2.5MM signing bonus and earn just $1MM in 2016 before earning $5.75MM in 2017. The 2018 club option is for $8.5MM and comes with a $1MM buyout, he adds, also tweeting that Forsythe’s option can escalate in $500K increments, up to $2.5MM based on plate appearances. That would bring the maximum value of the deal to $20.25MM over three years.
Forsythe, a client of PSI Sports Management, was first said to be nearing a two-year deal with the Rays by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times last night. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo added word of the club option and the $10.25MM guarantee. Forsythe was arbitration eligible this winter and had beenprojected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.3MM in 2016. In other words, this new contract will buy out his remaining two seasons of arbitration, and the club option will extend Tampa Bay’s control of Forsythe by one season. He’s now on track to hit free agency entering either his age-31 or age-32 season, depending on the outcome of the option.
Forsythe, who turned 29 years old yesterday, emerged as one of the Rays’ best overall players with a breakout 2015 season that saw him bat .281/.359/.444 with 17 home runs, nine stolen bases and solid defensive contributions at second base. While Forsythe had been a utility player for much of his career prior to last season, primarily providing value against left-handed pitching, he took a major step forward against right-handers in 2015, slashing .273/.353/.375 even without the benefit of the platoon advantage. If he’s able to sustain that type of production against righties in the future, it’ll pair quite well with his lifetime .280/.349/.478 slash against left-handed pitchers and allow Forsythe to serve as a quite valuable piece at second base for Tampa Bay.
The Rays initially picked up Forsythe in a seven-player trade that also netted the team Brad Boxberger, Matt Andriese, Maxx Tissenbaum and Matt Lollis in exchange for right-hander Jesse Hahn and left-hander Alex Torres.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.
In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.
The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.
In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .
Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.
Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.
Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.
Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.
Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.
It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.
Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.
It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.
It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Royals, Ian Kennedy Making Progress On Deal
The Royals and free-agent right-hander Ian Kennedy are “said to be making progress” on a contract, reports Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Talks between the Scott Boras client and the Kansas City front office are ongoing, per Heyman.
Kennedy, who turned 31 in December, would give the Royals some much-needed stability in the rotation. While Kansas City can currently trot out a combination of Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy, Chris Young and Kris Medlen in 2016 (with Jason Vargas on the mend from Tommy John surgery), that collective group comes with some question marks. Ventura has never topped 183 innings in a season and threw just 172 2/3 between Triple-A and the Majors last season. Likewise, Duffy’s career-high is 155 1/3 innings, and Young hasn’t tossed more than 165 innings in a season since 2007. Medlen totaled just 88 2/3 innings last year in his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery.
The Royals have been said to be on the lookout for additional starting rotation depth, although a deal with Kennedy would certainly qualify as more than merely “adding depth.” The right-hander turned down a qualifying offer from the Padres this past November, meaning the Royals would need to part with what currently lines up as the No. 24 overall pick in the draft in order to sign him. That’s a steep price to pay for any free agent, especially considering the fact that Kennedy is coming off a down season overall with San Diego, although it’s worth noting that he pitched quite well over the season’s final four months after a brutal start to the year.
Kennedy recorded a ghastly 7.15 ERA over his first eight starts, yielding a jarring 12 home runs in 39 innings in that stretch. But, from June 1 through season’s end, he righted the ship, working to a tidy 3.41 ERA with a 137-to-38 K/BB ratio and a more reasonable (but still lofty) 19 home runs allowed in 129 1/3 innings. His 2015 struggles notwithstanding, Kennedy has been a durable arm throughout the course of his career and showed no problems with the long ball as recently as 2014 with the Padres, when he posted a 3.63 ERA across 201 frames in one of his stronger overall campaigns in the Majors. While he’s never matched a dominant 2011 season in which he pitched to a 2.88 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 222 innings for the D-backs in their hitter-friendly home park (earning him a fourth-place vote in the NL Cy Young race), Kennedy has a track record of durability and strikeouts.
As a fly-ball pitcher who has, at times (specifically in 2013 and 2015) struggled with the long ball, the Royals seem, on paper, to be an excellent fit for Kennedy due to their expansive park and elite outfield defense, which features Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson (left to right). Additionally, the Royals have a very strong relationship with Scott Boras, having recently negotiate free-agent deals with Boras clients Kendrys Morales (though he has since switched agents), Alex Rios and Franklin Morales, to say nothing of homegrown talents like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Luke Hochevar and Christian Colon — all of whom are Boras clients as well.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ‘pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
- Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
- Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.
Padres Notes: Rodney, Free Agents, Maurer
The Padres haven’t yet shut the door on free agent right-hander Fernando Rodney, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). The Friars may, in fact, try to lure Rodney to San Diego by offering him the opportunity to close games. San Diego has been connected to Rodney on and off for the past couple of weeks. While the 38-year-old Rodney had disastrous results in Seattle last season — he logged a 5.68 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 and lost the closer’s role before being designated for assignment — he had a nice turnaround following a trade to the Cubs. While it was only a sample of a dozen innings, Rodney yielded just one earned run and recorded a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio in that time. Although the “Fernando Rodney Experience” certainly wore out its welcome in Seattle, the right-hander has drawn interest from the Blue Jays and Cubs as of late (though the Toronto connections pre-dated their acquisition of Drew Storen).
A couple more notes on the Padres…
- Specifics of Alexei Ramirez‘s reported one-year deal with the Padres have yet to emerge, but Lin reports that the contract allows San Diego to at least consider making further free-agent upgrades. While the Padres are reluctant to pursue players with draft pick compensation attached, according to Lin, the club could look for upgrades in the bullpen or in the outfield. Lin also notes that GM A.J. Preller has long been a fan of Ramirez and was dispatching scouts to keep an eye on him as early as April of this past season.
- Right-hander Brandon Maurer will report to Spring Training with the opportunity to win a job in the starting rotation, Preller told MLB.com’s Corey Brock earlier this week. “One of the things is he wants to do it,” Preller explained. “You put a lot of stock in that.” Maurer, of course, came up through the Mariners’ system as a starting pitcher but struggled in multiple big league auditions before dominating upon a transition to the bullpen. While Maurer is striving for a starting role, offseason pickup Drew Pomeranz will probably work in relief, according to Brock.
Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson‘s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.
Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.
Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.
Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.
Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.
It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.
Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.