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Cafardo’s Latest: Cutch, Pirates, Royals, Braves

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The Pirates are reportedly unlikely to trade center fielder Andrew McCutchen, whom they heavily shopped at last month’s Winter Meetings, but teams are still trying to acquire him, a major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Toronto is the latest reported team to show interest in McCutchen, whom the Bucs are only willing to deal if they receive major league-ready talent in return. The 30-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career, having gone backward at the plate, in the field and on the base paths, but he still carries a resoundingly successful track record and an affordable contract (two years, $28.5MM, including a $14.5MM club option for 2018). Considering those factors, it’s not surprising that teams continue to pursue the longtime face of the Pittsburgh franchise.

More inside info from Cafardo:

  • Free agent second baseman/third baseman Aaron Hill is on the radar of a few teams, and Atlanta and Kansas City could be among them, per Cafardo. Hill, 34, spent last season between Milwaukee and Boston, with which he combined to hit .262/.336/.378 with 10 home runs in 429 plate appearances. It’s debatable whether Hill would fit in Atlanta, which already seems to have a capable second base platoon on hand with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez, not to mention a third baseman with a similar offensive profile to Hill in Adonis Garcia. Both Hill and Garcia have hit southpaw pitchers better than right-handers in their careers, so it might behoove Atlanta to instead find a lefty-swinging complement to Garcia. KC, meanwhile, already has multiple third base options – Mike Moustakas and Cheslor Cuthbert – and a few second base candidates in Whit Merrifield, Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon and Cuthbert.
  • Speaking of the Braves and Royals, they are interested in free agent third baseman/first baseman Trevor Plouffe, who has been available since the Twins outrighted him in November. Boston and Oakland are also in on the 30-year-old Plouffe, a steady contributor from 2014-15 who batted an underwhelming .260/.303/.420 with 12 homers in 344 PAs last season. Like Hill, Plouffe has had more success versus lefties (.268/.344/.465) than righties (.239/.294/.403) during his career.
  • To finish off a Royals-heavy set of notes, it’s still possible they’ll trade one of Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer or outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all contract-year players – before the season, per Cafardo. A willingness to deal Moustakas or Hosmer, particularly the former, would somewhat explain Kansas City’s interest in Hill and Plouffe. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previouly reported that Hosmer is unlikely to go anywhere prior to the season, though, and KC already subtracted a key outfielder Friday when it shipped Jarrod Dyson to Seattle. Speculatively, that could impact whether the Royals would also part with Cain, who’s due $11MM next season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/7/17

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Baseball America’s Matt Eddy has released a long list of minor transactions from over the holidays. Here are a few of the bigger moves from that list not already noted elsewhere on MLBTR (we’ll also keep track of additional minor moves from Saturday as they happen):

  • The Brewers have signed first baseman Cody Decker to a minor league deal, tweets Tommy Stokke of FanRag. The pact doesn’t include an invitation to big league camp, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Decker announced (via Twitter) that he’ll move to catcher, where he has seen action in 23 games during parts of eight minor league seasons. The 29-year-old has slashed an impressive .255/.333/.501 in 1,498 Triple-A plate appearances, though he has only logged eight PAs in the majors (with San Diego in 2015).
  • The Cubs have signed catcher Carlos Corporan and re-signed infielder Munenori Kawasaki to minor league contracts. Corporan spent several years as a backup in Houston and last appeared in the Majors in 2015 with Texas; he hit .197/.246/.333 at two Triple-A stops in 2016. The 35-year-old Kawasaki played briefly for the Cubs last season and spent most of the year playing shortstop with Triple-A Iowa, where he batted .255/.352/.312. The popular former Blue Jays infielder has now appeared in parts of five seasons in the big leagues, as well as 11 in Japan.
  • The Red Sox have signed outfielder Brian Bogusevic to a minor league deal. The 32-year-old had a tough season with Orix in Japan in 2016, batting just .187/.320/.322 over 193 plate appearances. He last appeared in the big leagues with the Phillies in 2015.
  • The White Sox have released hard-throwing righty Jorge Rondon so that he can sign with Chunichi in Japan. They had previously signed him to a minor league deal after he posted a 2.67 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 pitching in the bullpen of the Pirates’ Triple-A Indianapolis bullpen in 2016.
  • The Angels have re-signed lefty reliever Cody Ege to a minor league deal. They had previously non-tendered him even though he had far less than three years of service time and was very effective in 8 2/3 innings for them last season, although he struggled in three innings with the Marlins and posted a modest 4.50 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9 in 44 innings at Triple-A.
  • The Phillies have signed righty reliever Pedro Beato to a minor league deal. The 30-year-old Beato was very effective for Triple-A Norfolk in 2016, with a 2.65 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 68 innings (although he allowed nine unearned runs). He’s pitched in the big leagues for three teams, but hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2014 and hasn’t logged significant time since he was a Met in 2011.
  • The Nationals have signed reliever lefty Josh Outman to a minor league deal. The 32-year-old last pitched in the big leagues in 2014, when he appeared with the Indians and Yankees. He posted a 4.95 ERA, albeit with 6.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, in 20 innings with Indianapolis in 2016 before being released.
  • The Tigers have signed first baseman Efren Navarro to a minor league deal. The 30-year-old batted .275/.337/.368 at two Triple-A stops in 2016. He’s appeared in parts of four big-league seasons, all with Anaheim.

East Notes: Urena, Red Sox, Orioles

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The Marlins face a tricky decision with out-of-options righty Jose Urena, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Urena posted a 6.13 ERA last season (albeit with a somewhat more palatable 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) and has yet to establish himself in the Majors. At the same time, he has terrific velocity and a good prospect pedigree, so the Marlins likely don’t want to lose him. The Marlins’ additions of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke to their rotation and Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa and Dustin McGowan to their bullpen means there’s limited space, however. A trade is a possibility, although Frisaro thinks that’s unlikely. Alternately, the Marlins could consider keeping 13 pitchers on their staff rather than 12, although that would limit their flexibility with their bench. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Orioles’ acquisition of Seth Smith this week should not impact their potential pursuit of Mark Trumbo, writes MASN’s Steve Melewski. The Orioles could still use Trumbo at DH, and their savings of about $4MM in the deal could possibly free up a bit of extra capital to sign him. As for Smith, he’s a platoon player, and neither he nor Hyun Soo Kim have much of a track record against lefties. That means the Orioles will likely continue to look for outfielders, presumably of the right-handed variety.
  • Money and the potential loss of amateur talent were key reasons the Red Sox didn’t seriously pursue Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Red Sox money both now and in future seasons, particularly given the possibility that they could reset their threshold this season, thus limiting their penalties in the future. Also, the new CBA calls for teams that exceed the threshold and sign a player who declined a qualifying offer to forfeit their second- and fifth-round draft picks and portions of their international bonus pools.

Arbitration Breakdown: Todd Frazier & Eric Hosmer

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Two corner infielders, Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer, enter arbitration this offseason after completing two-year deals that paid them each $8.25MM in the latter year (including a prorated portion of Frazier’s signing bonus). Both had solid years as power hitters, and my model projects each to receive a raise of $5.25MM for Frazier and $5.05MM for Hosmer, to $13.5MM and $13.3MM, respectively).

Only ten position players in the past decade have received additional single-year salaries through arbitration after receiving multi-year deals earlier in their eligibility. Most of these players had poor seasons, and only five of these ten have met these criteria since 2009.

As a result, it’s difficult to find good comparables for the situations in which Frazier and Hosmer find themselves. Perhaps the best match would be Prince Fielder, who received a $4MM raise in 2011 after a solid season in which he batted .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBIs. Frazier actually had more home runs last season but a worse average, posting a .225/40/98 line with 15 steals, while Hosmer was very similar at .266/25/104.

It’s rare for six-year old cases to be used in arbitration hearings, so Fielder is probably not a great match. However, applying some salary inflation to his $4MM raise suggests the model’s projections for Frazier and Hosmer are probably somewhat reasonable.

We can also check if players going to arbitration following multi-year deals fare better or worse than players who have been going year to year, and the evidence here suggests looking for regular comparables among the year-to-year group is reasonable. The average raise for the ten players coming off multi-year deals was $1.6MM, compared to projected earnings of $1.5MM. This difference is not significant enough to worry about a systematic bias. Therefore, looking for comparables in the year-to-year group makes sense to pin things down more precisely.

Of course, it is rare for power hitters to go year to year at all, so few players emerge as possibilities. No one in the last three years has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility coming off a platform year with 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. A couple players did so in 2013, including Chase Headley, who received a $5.1MM raise after a .286/31/115 campaign with 17 steals. Hunter Pence only got a $3.4MM raise after his .253/24/104 campaign the year prior. Pence could prove a reasonable comparable for Hosmer’s .266/25/104, which suggests Hosmer’s $5.05MM projected raise is probably high. However, Headley clearly did not do all that much better than Hosmer in his platform year, and both cases are old, so it remains possible that Headley is the better comparable and a $5MM raise is reasonable.

Frazier’s case is tricky in that no one in the last decade has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility with a batting average below .260 and at least 30 home runs. Although Frazier’s batting average was much poorer, I have found that batting average is a somewhat less important criteria than ran home run totals in arbitration, so I believe Frazier’s case is strong. I think Headley’s 60 points of batting average probably roughly offset the nine fewer home runs, and a $5MM raise or slightly higher does seem more believable for Frazier.

Three players in the last decade have gotten $5MM raises as part of multi-year deals—Jose Bautista, Carlos Pena, and Matt Kemp. However, none of them are great comparables, since they all had much better numbers than either Frazier and Hosmer. Additionally, multi-year deals are generally not used in arbitration hearings, although they may be in these instances where comparables are tough to find.

Ultimately, I think both Frazier and Hosmer have good cases to top Fielder’s $4MM raise and either could make a case for being near Headley’s $5.1MM raise. I suspect Hosmer may fall short of his projected $5.05MM raise, and get somewhere closer to $4.5MM—which would put him around $12.75MM. Frazier’s 40 home runs allow for more upside, and his $5.25MM projected raise to $13.5MM seems like a reasonable estimate.

Dodgers Sign Steve Geltz To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have signed righty reliever Steve Geltz to a minor league deal, Matt Eddy of Baseball America writes. The Brewers had claimed Geltz from the Rays earlier in the offseason, but he became a free agent once they outrighted him last month.

The 29-year-old Geltz pitched 102 1/3 innings for the Rays over the last three seasons, posting a 4.22 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He’s always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, though, and those fly ball tendencies became a significant problem for him last season, when he allowed a staggering 11 home runs in 26 2/3 innings and was repeatedly demoted to Triple-A Durham. His more successful showing in 2015 (when he had a 3.74 ERA over 67 1/3 frames) perhaps demonstrates his upside under better circumstances, though, so it’s possible he could reemerge at some point as a big-league middle reliever. If he does, he comes with up to five more seasons of control remaining, including two pre-arbitration years.

Indians Sign Edwin Encarnacion

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SATURDAY: Via Heyman (on Twitter), Encarnacion will receive $150K if the Indians draw two million fans in any year of his contract, with additional bonuses of $150K for 2.15MM, 2.3MM, 2.5MM and 2.75MM fans. He will receive $250K for 3MM fans.

THURSDAY 11:15am: MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince reports that Encarnacion will receive a $5MM signing bonus and earn $13MM in 2017 (Twitter link). He’ll then make $17MM in 2018 and $20MM in 2019 before the Indians have to determine whether to exercise his $20MM club option or pay him a $5MM buyout. Interestingly, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Encarnacion has a unique clause that allows him to earn up to $1MM worth of incentives per year based on the Indians’ attendance.

8:42am: Improbable as it might’ve seemed when the offseason began, the Indians have landed arguably the best bat on the free-agent market, announcing on Thursday the signing of longtime Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year contract with a fourth-year option. The Rep 1 Baseball client will reportedly be guaranteed $60MM and can see his contract max out at $80MM if his $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for the 2020 season is exercised.

[Related: Updated Cleveland Indians Depth Chart / Cleveland Indians Payroll Info]

Edwin Encarnacion Indians

Encarnacion, who turns 34 on Saturday, will give Cleveland a younger and more productive replacement for the departed Mike Napoli — bolstering the lineup of a club that is fresh off an American League pennant and hoping for another deep postseason run in 2017. The former Blue Jays star slashed .263/.357/.529 with 42 home runs and a league-leading 127 runs batted in this past season. Over the past five years, Encarnacion has been one of Major League Baseball’s most feared hitters, compiling a stellar .272/.367/.544 batting line with 193 homers — an average of 39 big flies per year. In that time, Encarnacion trails only Chris Davis in total home runs, and he’s also ranked third in the Majors in isolated power (.273), fifth in slugging percentage and sixth in OPS (.912) among qualified hitters.

Adding a bat as potent as the one wielded by Encarnacion will give the Indians a formidable lineup to complement an outstanding rotation. Encarnacion should slot into the heart of the order, where he’ll be surrounded by Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana and a hopefully healthier Michael Brantley in 2017. Young Jose Ramirez took a massive step forward in terms of offensive production in 2016, and Tyler Naquin emerged as an unexpected power threat to further deepen the lineup. Encarnacion has spent the bulk of his time at DH in recent years, but he’s rated as a passable option at first base when in the field. He should split time at both positions with Santana next year, and following the 2017 season he can become a full-time designated hitter once Santana hits the open market.

The circumstances that led to Encarnacion’s arrival in Cleveland were somewhat surprising; the 33-year-old entered the offseason as one of the two best bats on the open market (alongside Yoenis Cespedes), but multiple clubs that looked to be fits either pivoted early due to his asking price or never engaged with Encarnacion at all. The Yankees signed Matt Holliday just as the Winter Meetings kicked off, for instance, while the Astros seemingly moved on just prior to that by signing Carlos Beltran. The Red Sox reportedly never made much of a run at all, preferring a short-term option at first base/DH (which proved to be Mitch Moreland).

Encarnacion’s former team, the Blue Jays, seemed to be one of the best on-paper fits to retain his services. Toronto GM Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro reportedly made an offer of roughly $80MM over four years to Encarnacion back in early November, but Encarnacion and his agent felt it best to explore the market a bit more before making a decision on that offer. Unfortunately for them, the Jays changed course almost instantly, signing Kendrys Morales to a three-year $33MM deal on Nov. 11 and striking a two-year pact with Steve Pearce just under a month later. While the decision to reject that $80MM guarantee is easy to question in hindsight, Encarnacion can still reach that total in the end if his option is exercised.

In addition to Encarnacion’s age and defensive limitations, the biggest hindrance on his market may well have been the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer and is thus subject to draft pick compensation. The Indians entered the offseason with the 27th overall pick but saw that selection move up to 25th overall after the Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler and the Rockies signed Ian Desmond. Cleveland will part with that top pick in order to sign Encarnacion, while the Jays will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.

Surrendering that pick was no small feat for Cleveland — a low-revenue team that can rarely engage in this type of free-agent expenditure and must instead rely on drafts and trades to build contenders. However, Cleveland’s window to win is unquestionable open right now; in the rotation, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are all controlled through the 2019 season — the final guaranteed year of Encarnacion’s deal. Kipnis, too, is controlled through 2019, while relief aces Andrew Miller and Cody Allen are controlled through 2018. That collection of well-compensated veterans is manageable for Cleveland with Santana coming off the books next season, while younger stars Lindor and Ramirez have yet to reach arbitration. Cleveland is also sitting on something of a World Series windfall following their Game 7 run in this year’s Fall Classic, making the immediate commitment a bit easier for the team to stomach.

Whether Encarnacion can push the team over the top and help bring Cleveland its first World Series title since 1948 remains to be seen, of course, but with Encarnacion added to an already excellent roster, the Indians figure to enter the 2017 as the consensus on-paper favorite to take home their second straight American League Central Division title.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first reported the agreement between the two sides (Twitter links). Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reported the guarantee and the option (Twitter links). He also tweeted that Encarnacion did not receive an opt-out clause.

Central Notes: Encarnacion, Dozier, Pirates

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Agent Paul Kinzer said at this week’s press conference to introduce Edwin Encarnacion in Cleveland that the attendance bonuses that are built into the contract — worth upwards of $1MM per season, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman — helped push the Indians’ offer over the top, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. However, it may be tough to meet those figures, as Hoynes points out that Cleveland hasn’t topped two million fans (the minimum threshold for Encarnacion to begin receiving incentives) since 2008 and haven’t drawn three million fans in a season since 2001. That type of clause is rare enough, Kinzer notes, that Cleveland president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti had to call the commissioner’s office just to see if the Indians would even be allowed to include such an incentive in the contract. While it’s unlikely that Encarnacion alone will drive the Indians’ attendance to those levels, MLB.com’ Jordan Bastian tweets that Cleveland has sold more than $1MM worth of season tickets since word of the agreement with Encarnacion broke — a 50 percent increase in new sales relative to last year’s offseason. A couple more notes on the Central divisions:

  • Though this week’s report that Brandon Phillips nixed a trade to the Braves (via FOX’s Ken Rosenthal) lends some credence to recent connections between Atlanta and Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press circled back with a source that characterized a Dozier-to-Atlanta deal as a “long shot” (Twitter link). It continues to appear as if the Dodgers are the only team that currently has a strong enough need to consider meeting Minnesota’s price for its excellent second baseman.
  • Fastball velocity has increased throughout the game in the past several seasons, but it’s increased even faster within the Pirates organization during that time, Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs writes. The Bucs finished first in fastball velocity in 2015 (94.0 MPH) and second in 2016 (93.4 MPH). A key trait of many of the reclamation pitchers the Pirates have used in recent years — from starters like A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano to relievers like Arquimedes Caminero, Neftali Feliz and John Holdzkom — is that they possess above-average velocity, as Sawchik points out. Bucs GM Neal Huntington notes that velocity gives pitchers more cushion for their mistakes, in that a poorly located pitch thrown in the mid-90s is less likely to yield poor results than a poorly located pitched thrown at a more modest radar reading. Now that other teams are also valuing velocity among free-agent pitchers, the Pirates are looking to develop hard-throwing pitchers of their own, like Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl.

Royals Sign Chris Withrow, Al Alburquerque, Brandon League To Minor League Deals

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The Royals have signed veteran righties Chris Withrow, Al Alburquerque and Brandon League to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes (Twitter links). Flanagan also notes the minor league signings of pitchers Bobby Parnell and Jonathan Sanchez, which had been previously reported; those two will combine with Withrow, Albuquerque and League to form a long list of formerly effective veterans who could compete for spots on the Royals’ pitching staff.

The 27-year-old Withrow was formerly a first-round pick of the Dodgers. After heading to Atlanta in a six-player deal involving Juan Uribe and Alberto Callaspo, Withrow spent 2016 with the Braves, where he posted a 3.58 ERA and an average fastball velocity approaching the mid-90s, but with an underwhelming 6.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 37 2/3 innings. He ended last season with over three years of service time after spending 2015 on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the Braves non-tendered him last month.

Alburquerque spent the 2016 season in the Angels and Mariners organizations, appearing briefly in the big leagues with the Angels and posting a 3.74 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings in the minors. The formerly hard-throwing Tigers reliever has seen his velocity dip to the low 90s in recent seasons. It’s possible some of that velocity drop might have some connection to his contraction of the Chikungunya virus in 2015, however, and the 30-year-old has proven to be an effective, if control-challenged, big-league reliever in the past.

League has not pitched since 2015, or in the big leagues since 2014, after struggling with shoulder trouble. The 33-year-old formerly served as a closer for the Mariners and Dodgers, but the Dodgers released him before the expiration of his three-year, $22.5MM contract with them. He has a 3.65 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in parts of 11 seasons with the big leagues.

Padres Interested In Doug Fister

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The Padres have interest in starting pitchers Doug Fister, Jake Peavy and Jered Weaver, with Weaver the least likely of the three, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The team’s interest in Peavy and Weaver had already been reported, but their reported interest in Fister is new.

Fister fits with the other two pitchers into the broad category of aging righty starters who have recently been down on their luck. He posted a 4.64 ERA, 5.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 180 1/3 innings after signing a one-year deal with Houston for 2016. He made 32 starts, and there’s much to be said for that kind of durability, perhaps particularly for a Padres team that lacks established starting pitching behind Jhoulys Chacin. The 32-year-old Fister looks like a candidate for another short-term deal, however — his velocity rebounded somewhat last season but remains low for a righty, with an average fastball of 88.4 MPH, and his peripheral numbers offer few indications that the Fister who posted a 3.11 ERA in 750 2/3 innings from 2011 through 2014 is likely to return.

There haven’t been many whispers about Fister this offseason. He has briefly been connected to the Marlins, Pirates, and Mariners, although all those teams have since made starting pitcher acquisitions.

Arbitration Breakdown: Addison Reed

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed’s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.

Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.

He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.

Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.

That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.

Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.

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