Archives for January 2017

5 Key Stories: 12/31/16 – 1/6/17

By charliewilmoth | January 7, 2017 at 8:43am CDT

Here are five key stories from this week at MLBTR.

Mariners deal for Yovani Gallardo, Jarrod Dyson. Seattle acquired two veterans this week in a pair of related trades. First, they sent outfielder Seth Smith to Baltimore in exchange for starter Yovani Gallardo. Then, they shipped a starter, Nate Karns, to Kansas City for outfielder Jarrod Dyson. The deals give the Mariners a pair of short-term possibilities; Gallardo is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018 and Dyson can become a free agent at the end of the year, while Karns is controllable through 2020.

Rajai Davis returns to Athletics. After six years split between the Blue Jays, Tigers and Indians, speedy veteran Rajai Davis came back to Oakland this week, signing a one-year, $6MM deal to join an outfield group that will also include Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Jake Smolinski and Brett Eibner. The Athletics could continue to add, too, as they’ve recently been connected to free-agent slugger Mark Trumbo.

Reds sign Drew Storen. The Reds made their first big-league signing of the year this week, and perhaps unsurprisingly, it’s for a former closer, as they inked former Nationals fireman Drew Storen to a one-year, $3MM deal that can include up to $1.5MM in incentives. In other Reds news, it also emerged this week that second baseman Brandon Phillips blocked a trade to the Braves this past November.

Twins expect resolution of Brian Dozier trade talks. Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has been a rumored trade candidate throughout much of the winter, but the Twins don’t expect that to continue, as they plan to soon resolve his status for 2017. The Dodgers have long been the team most strongly connected to Dozier, and that appears to continue to be the case, and they’re reportedly willing to include Jose De Leon and other prospects in exchange.

Royals, Cardinals begin Matt Adams trade talks. The Royals and Cardinals have reportedly begun trade talks on a deal that would send first baseman Matt Adams across the state of Missouri. With Kansas City, Adams would likely find playing time as a DH. The Royals also added another potential DH candidate this week when they acquired minor league slugger Peter O’Brien from the Diamondbacks for righty Sam Lewis.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, Fiers

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 12:04am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

As I discussed in my write-up on Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez, it has been difficult for starting pitchers to top Dontrelle Willis’ arbitration salary of $4.35MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility back in 2006. Dallas Keuchel finally broke that record last year, but otherwise many pitchers have fallen short. In many cases, pitchers have gotten close only to sign multi-year deals to remove themselves from the list of comparables, and other times they have settled for numbers at or just short of Willis’ old record.

My model has trouble with these symbolic barriers, and I have written many articles about why pitchers projected to earn slightly more than $4.35MM would earn slightly less. Mathematical modeling is a science, but it does not pick up on the psychological nuances of a precedent being broken. It remains to be seen whether Keuchel’s new record makes it easier for pitchers to out-earn Willis—and Carlos Martinez this year could be a great case. However, despite Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, and Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers of the Astros all projecting near the $4.35 mark—Odorizzi and McHugh are projected slightly above it—I suspect all four will earn slightly less than their projections because of this barrier.

All four of Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Fiers have at least 30 career wins, 500 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and 100 platform year innings. All of them also have relatively average ERAs in the 3’s or 4’s. None won the Cy Young Award last year. There are only four such pitchers who met these criteria to receive one-year arbitration deals as first-year starting pitchers in the last three years, and all four earned in a tight range of $3.63MM to $4.35MM. These include Shelby Miller, Chris Tillman, Mike Minor, and Jake Arrieta. It is difficult to see any of these four pitchers falling out of that range.

Gerrit Cole is projected to earn $4.2MM, but his case is somewhat unique in that he had a relatively weak platform year despite a strong career. He went 7-10 last year, but his 47-30 in his career. His 3.88 last year is worse than his 3.23 career mark. He only threw 116 innings with 98 strikeouts last year, but he has thrown 579.1 innings with 538 strikeouts in his career. Good comparables will include players with high career wins but low platform year wins. Ivan Nova is a reasonable comparable, although he earned just $3.3MM three years ago. He had a 9-6 record with a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 innings, but was 38-20 in his career with 4.04 ERA in 517 innings. Cole’s career numbers are definitely much better than Nova’s, but Nova makes sense as a floor. I suspect Cole will get a raise over Nova’s salary plus some extra money for inflation and will end up in the $3.5MM to $4MM range, probably right in the middle—well short of his arbitration projection of $4.2MM.

Jake Odorizzi went 10-6 last season with a 3.69 ERA in 187.2 innings along with 166 strikeouts. He only has 30 career wins, fewer than the other three guys on this list, but he does have 562 career innings and a 3.75 career ERA, along with 516 strikeouts. His best comparable is probably Doug Fister four years ago, who also won ten games and had a similar ERA at 3.45. Fister also had 30 career wins and a 3.48 ERA in 610 career innings. Fister struck out over a hundred fewer batters in his career at the time he earned $4MM exactly, so adding in some salary inflation should be Odorizzi comfortably in the low 4’s. However, it is hard to find a reason why Odorizzi would top Matt Harvey, David Price, Shelby Miller, or Chris Tillman, all of whom earned between $4.32 and $4.35MM. My model projects Odorizzi at $4.6MM but my gut says $4.2MM.

Collin McHugh had a 4.34 ERA last year and has a 4.13 career ERA, so his run prevention resume is unimpressive compared to the other pitchers in this group and many other potential comparables. However, McHugh won 13 games last year and has won 43 in his career, which is a rare feat. There are only two pitchers in the last six years who have won at least 12 games in their platform years and 40 in their careers while having ERAs above 4.00. These include Ian Kennedy, who earned $4.26MM in 2013, and Tommy Hanson, who earned $3.72MM in the same year. Kennedy’s numbers are largely similar to McHugh’s, but slightly better in many aspects. Hanson was slightly behind McHugh in most categories. Given how stale these comps are, I think McHugh should pass the midpoint of around $4MM, but I also see him struggling to make a case for besting $4.35MM. I think something like $4.1MM or $4.2MM is likely, which is also below his $4.6MM projection.

Michael Fiers 4.48 platform year ERA will definitely dent his case, although his 3.87 career ERA is more impressive. He also has 11 platform year wins and 34 career wins, along with a platform year of 168.2 innings with 134 strikeouts. Jeremy Hellickson’s 2014 case is a great match. He had only one fewer loss, although Hellickson’s 5.17 ERA is definitely much worse than Fiers’ 4.48. His 39 career wins to that point best Fiers, but his 409 career strikeouts fall far below Fiers’ 542. Hellickson earned $3.63MM back in 2014, so with a more impressive platform year ERA plus three years of salary inflation, we would expect Fiers to easily top Hellickson’s salary. It is difficult to find much evidence that Fiers will hit his $4.3MM projection, though, since many of the pitchers in that range have much better cases than he does. I suspect he may be able to get close to $4MM, but probably not top it.

All four of these pitchers are likely to earn a few hundred thousand dollars less than they are projected to earn. My arbitration model tends to miss these sorts of subtleties, and a longstanding symbolic barrier at $4.35MM definitely has skewed salaries in this range down a few hundred thousand dollars. Keuchel’s new record is much higher than Willis’ old record, but several other pitchers will probably need to top $4.35MM before the model results are smooth enough that we can stop shaving money off these projections.

Nationals Hire De Jon Watson As Special Assistant

By Steve Adams | January 6, 2017 at 11:20pm CDT

The Nationals announced on Friday that former Diamondbacks and Dodgers executive De Jon Watson has been added to their pro scouting staff and will serve as a special assistant to general manager Mike Rizzo.

Watson served as the Diamondbacks’ senior vice president of baseball operations from Sept. 2014 through Sept. 2016 before being dismissed in advance of a significant front office overhaul in Arizona. Though the 2016 struggles of the D-backs led to a considerable amount of criticism for all parties involved in that iteration of the front office, Watson has long been a respected executive and will bring a wealth of experience to the Washington front office.

With the D-backs, Watson’s duties included “[overseeing] the franchise’s professional, amateur and international scouting as well as all player development functions.” Prior to his time with the Diamondbacks, Watson spent eight seasons in the front office of the Dodgers, working in a variety of roles that included lengthy stints as an assistant GM and the team’s vice president of player development. He also served as the Indians’ director of pro scouting and the Reds’ director of scouting after first breaking into the business as an area scout with the Marlins.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/6/17

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 10:18pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor transactions:

The Tigers have outrighted righty Angel Nesbitt to Triple-A after he cleared waivers, per a team announcement. Nesbitt, 26, was bumped from the 40-man recently to make way for the signing of Alex Avila. He has a bit fastball and drew grounders during his brief major-league action in 2015, but didn’t make it back to the bigs last year. Nesbitt ended up spending the entire season at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.91ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 47 2/3 frames.
Also outrighted, per the MLB.com transactions page, was Pirates first baseman/third baseman Jason Rogers. He, too, was designated to clear roster space for a new addition — in his case, righty Nefi Ogando. The bulky 28-year-old has seen scattered time in the majors over the last three years, and hit well in 2015 for the Brewers, but didn’t enjoy a productive season in his first go-round in the Pirates organization. Pittsburgh acquired Rogers in a deal that sent Trey Supak and Keon Broxton to the Brewers last offseason. But he ended up seeing just 33 MLB plate appearances and struggled to a .263/.338/.371 slash with four home runs in his 420 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

Duquette On O’s Plans After Seth Smith Trade

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 7:32pm CDT

After picking up outfielder Seth Smith from the Mariners in a deal that sent Yovani Gallardo to Seattle, Orioles VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told the media that his organization still wants to add to its outfield mix, as Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com was among those to report. Baltimore is also interested in adding some pitching depth with Gallardo leaving town.

Duquette seemingly framed the approach as one of seeking depth, but presumably the O’s will at least consider something more. It probably doesn’t hurt that turning Gallardo into Smith also freed up a bit of financial flexibility. The organization would surely like to add some more thump to its lineup, which no longer includes Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez.

Currently, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource projects Trey Mancini to take DH duties. But while the 24-year-old had a solid season in the upper minors last year, he only made it to the majors for five games of action. And though it’s nice that he hit three home runs in his 15 MLB plate appearances, Mancini hit a relatively unexceptional twenty long balls and slugged. 458 in 611 trips to the plate in the minors. Point being: despite his promise, there’s reason to believe the O’s ought to seek a near-term upgrade.

Of course, both Trumbo and Alvarez are still available via free agency. The former is at least capable of playing the outfield, though defensive metrics have long cast doubt on that characterization. Among the free agent outfielders still available are Brandon Moss, Michael Saunders, Colby Rasmus, and longtime O’s nemesis Jose Bautista.

As for the rotation, Duqutte said that he felt the club was in a good position to move a starter. “We dealt from an area of surplus – we had six starters – to fill an area of need and that was left-handed hitting, on-base capability and an outfielder,” he said. “So, we liked the trade from that perspective. We reallocated some of our resources and I think, in the process, we strengthened our team.”

Given that assessment, it certainly sounds as if Baltimore will limit itself to swingman types or minor-league free agents. There are quite a few possible candidates still remaining that could meet that general description, so it’s all but impossible to assess where the team’s gaze might end up landing. Given Duquette’s propensity for waiting out the market, it could well be some time before we find out the full slate of arms that the O’s will have on hand this spring.

Morosi’s Latest: Hammel, Rangers, Quintana, Braun, Dodgers, Feliz

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 5:22pm CDT

The market has finally seen some movement, both via trades and free-agent signings, in recent days, and there’s plenty more to come with Spring Training just six weeks away. Here’s the latest chatter on various potential player movements, all via Jon Morosi of MLB Network (all links below are to his Twitter feed).

Though Jason Hammel has seemingly had trouble finding active pursuers, the Rangers are now in the mix for the righty. That’s certainly promising news for Hammel, who may no longer be under consideration for the Mariners now that they’ve added Yovani Gallardo. Of course, Seattle also just parted with Nate Karns, and GM Jerry Dipoto says he’s still amenable to bolstering his staff (via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, on Twitter). As for Texas, the level of interest remains unclear, though it’s certainly plausible to imagine the team deciding that Hammel would be a worthwile bet to provide some solid innings. The biggest question, perhaps, is whether they’ll instead land Tyson Ross first.
As the White Sox continue to discuss trade arrangements involving Jose Quintana, the Astros remain one of the rival organizations most fervently in pursuit. That’s hardly surprising, as Houston has long been said to be engaged on the talented lefty. Certainly, it still seems there’s sufficient momentum towards a deal for something to get done, though it remains to be seen whether the ’Stros or another club will come up with the best offer.
The Giants are not actively pursuing Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun. And though the Dodgers still remain a possible match with Milwaukee, the Los Angeles organization is currently still focused on trying to work out a trade for second baseman Brian Dozier. It’s not known whether the Dodgers would embark upon a pursuit of Braun if they’re able to add Dozier. While they obviously play different positions, Dozier would accomplish the goal of adding right-handed pop while occupying a position of greater need for L.A., which has a rather lengthy list of potential outfielders.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are on the hunt for a righty set-up man. One possibility, per Morosi, is live-armed 28-year-old Neftali Feliz, who is arguably the best-remaining relief pitcher. MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently took a look at Feliz’s free-agent case.

Mariners Acquire Jarrod Dyson From Royals For Nate Karns

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 4:00pm CDT

The Mariners have moved swiftly on a second trade of the day, officially adding outfielder Jarrod Dyson from the Royals in exchange for righty Nate Karns, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune first reported (via Twitter). The speedy Dyson will take the place in the Seattle outfield just vacated by Seth Smith, while Karns will presumably enter the rotation mix for Kansas City.

For Seattle, this swap plainly functions in concert with the Smith deal, which brought in starter Yovani Gallardo. Evidently, the M’s prefer the combination of the veteran Gallardo and Dyson to the team’s preexisting assets. GM Jerry Dipoto cited Dyson’s “elite level defense and base running” as the motivating factors for his addition (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, on Twitter).

While the earlier swap involved a pair of short-term veterans (though Gallardo does come with an option), the Mariners sacrificed some control with this move. Dyson, 32, is entering his final year of team control, though he’s still plenty affordable with a projected $2.5MM arbitration salary. The 29-year-old Karns, meanwhile, is still controllable through 2020 as a 2+ service-class player.

[RELATED: Updated Mariners & Royals Depth Charts]

Though Dyson, like Smith, hits from the left side, they are otherwise quite different players. Dyson isn’t quite as adept with the bat in hand as is Smith. He has never finished a year with even an average batting line. Last year, though, was his best yet in the majors, as he hit .278/.340/.388 over 337 plate appearances. Though he hit well in very limited duty against southpaws last year, Dyson has generally struggled without the platoon advantage, limiting his ability to play as a regular.

Unlike the lumbering Smith, Dyson earns his keep on the basepaths and in the field. On a rate basis, Dyson is perhaps the game’s most valuable overall baserunner. Despite just 1,091 plate appearances over the past four years, he has accumulated the sixth-highest total BsR score from Fangraphs (23.2); for reference, Billy Hamilton comfortably paces the league with 36.6 BsR, though he has taken nearly 50% more trips to the plate. Dyson is also a consistent threat to run, having tallied 176 total steals in his seven full or partial major-league seasons.

Dyson is equally impressive with the glove. In that same four-year span, he’s 13th in the game in total defensive value (by Fangraphs’ UZR-based measure). Again, that compares favorably to the game’s very best fielder, Andrelton Simmons, who has nearly hit the century mark in defensive runs since 2013 but has over twice Dyson’s trips to the plate. Though Leonys Martin, another left-handed hitter, could conceivably hold onto his job as the regular in center, Dyson is obviously capable of playing there as well. That’s not to say that Dyson can’t impact the game from a corner spot, if that’s where he ends up; Seattle certainly now has plenty of options with a defensive unit laden with quality fielders.

Still, it could end up being a hefty price to pay if Karns can harness his evident talent. Last year, he compiled only a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 innings, which he compiled over 15 starts and seven relief appearances. But even as he struggled with his command (4.3 BB/9) Karns managed to strike out more than a hitter per inning. And he was a highly productive, MLB starter as recently as 2015, when he gave the Rays 147 frames of 3.67 ERA ball with 8.9 K/9 against a more palatable 3.4 BB/9.

Karns’s struggles in 2016 may be attributed at least in part to some misfortune, as he allowed a slightly elevated .327 BABIP and ended up with a rather low 69.0% strand rate. He also managed to show a return to the 93 mph average range with his fastball after dropping a bit in the prior year. And despite the increased walks, Karns actually worked in the zone more than ever before (48.8%) while increasing his swinging-strike rate to a personal-best 10.9%.

There are some areas of concern, though. Karns spent a lengthy stretch on the DL with a back strain, though he did nearly return to action late in the season. And he had shoulder surgery earlier in his career, which delayed his advancement to the majors. For what it’s worth, this is also the third time he has been traded since 2014. (He was originally shipped from the Nationals to the Rays that spring, in exchange for Jose Lobaton, Felipe Rivero, and Drew Vettleson, and later moved to the Mariners in the fall of 2015 in in a six-player swap.)

It’s not immediately clear what role Karns will play in Kansas City, but he ought to at least have a chance to compete for a starting job in camp. Other options for the back of the rotation include Jason Vargas, Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Mike Minor, and Alec Mills. If he isn’t immediately utilized as a starter, it’s possible that K.C. could look to find out whether Karns’s stuff might play up in a full-time relief capacity. He also can still be optioned for one more season, so it’s possible he could end up opening the year at Triple-A.

Parting with Dyson also opens up the outfield competition for the Royals, who otherwise likely would have used him in a platoon of some kind. But his importance to the organization was lessened by the acquisition of Jorge Soler, who the club will hope is capable of playing regularly alongside Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain. Other players in the outfield mix include Paulo Orlando, Whit Merrifield, Billy Burns, and perhaps prospects Hunter Dozier, Bubba Starling, and Jorge Bonifacio. While only Gordon and Burns hit from the left side (the latter as a switch-hitter), there are obviously plenty of options on hand.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Intend To Add An Outfielder

By Jeff Todd | January 6, 2017 at 2:36pm CDT

After dealing away Seth Smith today, the Mariners are looking to acquire another outfielder, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The team doesn’t have a strong preference between a right-handed and left-handed-hitting piece, per the report, though it’s not immediately clear whether the M’s are looking at a particular target.

While Seattle’s trade of Smith bolstered the organization’s rotation depth by returning Yovani Gallardo, it’s hard to say that was the sole motivation. The club had reportedly been looking to move Smith for some time, after all, perhaps due to an inclination to make better use of payroll space and perhaps also due to the addition late last year of lefty corner piece Ben Gamel.

It’s fair to wonder, though, whether the Mariners have their eye on a strike to add a regular or semi-regular hitter that they like better than Smith. With a variety of big bats still floating around in free agency, there are any number of interesting possibilities.

Mark Trumbo is the top-rated free agent still left unsigned, but the former Mariner has already been traded away twice by GM Jerry Dipoto (once when the two were with the Angels). Jose Bautista would certainly represent an intriguing target to put into the middle of the lineup along with fellow Dominican stars Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, though adding him (as with Trumbo) would mean sacrificing a first-round pick (currently, the 17th selection). Neither is a likely addition for Seattle, though, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Other open-market outfield bats include another former Mariner, Michael Saunders, and big lefty slugger Brandon Moss. It’s imaginable, too, that Seattle would prefer to pick up a player capable of spending some time in center. While Leonys Martin was strong there in 2016, he’d look even better with a solid platoon option available as needed. Right-handed, center-field capable hitters still on the market include Austin Jackson and Desmond Jennings.

Of course, that’s just scratching the surface of the options. The M’s have already struck one significant trade this offseason and could pursue another with heavy hitters such as Ryan Braun, J.D. Martinez, and Andrew McCutchen all potentially available. Or, they might find value on a part-time player through a swap. Regardless, it seems that the Smith trade will set up more moves, rather than representing a capstone to the heavy winter lifting for Dipoto and his team.

White Sox Claim Willy Garcia, Designate Jason Coats For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 6, 2017 at 1:33pm CDT

The White Sox announced on Friday that they’ve claimed outfielder Willy Garcia off waivers from the Pirates and designated fellow outfielder Jason Coats for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Garcia was designated for assignment by the Pirates last weekend to open space for Ivan Nova on Pittsburgh’s roster.

The 24-year-old Garcia posted solid numbers throughout his minor league tenure until reaching the Triple-A level, where he’s struggled to a .245/.290/.388 batting line in 790 plate appearances across the past two seasons. However, Garcia delivered strong production at the Double-A level in parts of two seasons, hitting .285/.324/.467 with 23 homers and 11 steals in 698 trips to the plate. Baseball America rated him 12th among Pirates prospects just last offseason, praising his “incredible” arm and above-average speed. While Garcia’s plate discipline is a major concern, per BA (and he indeed at a near-27 percent clip last year), their post-2015 scouting report noted that improvement in that regard could lead to an everyday corner outfielder.

Coats, meanwhile, will turn 27 next month. The former 29th-round pick made his big league debut in 2016, tallying 58 plate appearances and batting .200/.298/.340 in that brief cup of coffee. Coats did post a huge season with Triple-A Charlotte last season, slashing .330/.394/.519, and he’s delivered reasonably productive results throughout his minor league career. A right-handed hitter, Coats is primarily limited to the outfield corners.

White Sox, Cody Asche Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 6, 2017 at 1:15pm CDT

The White Sox have agreed to a minor league pact with former Phillies third baseman/outfielder Cody Asche, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (on Twitter).

The 26-year-old Asche, non-tendered by the Phils last month, was long rated as one of Phildelphia’s top organizational prospects. However, his bat never came around during a two-year audition at the hot corner in the Majors, and the arrival of Maikel Franco on the scene pushed Asche from third base into left field. His offense didn’t improve following the position switch, however, and Asche’s big league time in Philadelphia ultimately culminated in a .240/.298/.385 batting line with 31 homers in 1287 plate appearances. Defensively, he’s received poor grades from both DRS and UZR regardless of his positioning on the diamond.

However, Asche has yet to see his 27th birthday, and he did post career-high marks in walk rate (8.7 percent) and hard contact (33.4 percent) this past season. He won’t be guaranteed anything with the now-rebuilding White Sox, but he gives the team a potential depth option at third base or in the outfield in the event that Todd Frazier or Melky Cabrera is ultimately traded. Asche has three-plus years of service time, so if a change of scenery and new coaching input can help him to more closely approximate his career .297/.359/.491 Triple-A line (644 plate appearances) at the Major League level, then the Sox can control him for another three years via arbitration.

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